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The mediating effect of accrual earnings management on the relationship between ownership structure and firm value: Evidence from Jordan 应计收益管理对所有权结构与公司价值之间关系的中介效应:来自约旦的证据
Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2024-03-07 DOI: 10.21511/imfi.21(1).2024.24
Laith Al-Shouha, O. Khasawneh, Wan Nur Syahida Wan Ismail, Nik Mohd Norfadzilah Nik Mohd Rashid
Firm value is considered a primary and essential driver for investors when making investment decisions, so they are interested in the quality of the financial data in companies’ annual reports related to firm value in an attempt by the owners to improve the company’s image and raise its value. Therefore, this study examined the relationship between ownership structure and firm value through the mediating role of accrual earnings management. Panel data were extracted from the financial reports of 88 non-financial companies listed on the Amman Stock Exchange for 11 years (2009–2019). The Barron and Kenny, Sobel, and other test approaches were applied to investigate the mediation effect and mediating relationships. The outcomes identified a positive impact of managerial ownership on firm value and a positive impact of foreign ownership on firm value. Also, it showed a negative impact of managerial ownership and foreign ownership on accrual earnings management, while accrual earnings management positively impacted firm value. Regarding mediating relationships, the results identified a mediating effect of accrual earnings management on the relationship between managerial ownership and firm value and a mediating effect of accrual earnings management on the relationship between foreign ownership and firm value. However, accrual earnings management does not mediate the relationship between family ownership and firm value. This shows the importance of reducing accrual earnings management through the identities of investors (managerial and foreign), which helps increase control and improve the value of a company.
公司价值被认为是投资者做出投资决策的首要和基本驱动因素,因此他们对公司年报中与公司价值相关的财务数据的质量很感兴趣,试图通过所有者的努力来改善公司形象,提高公司价值。因此,本研究通过权责发生制收益管理的中介作用来研究所有权结构与公司价值之间的关系。面板数据取自安曼证券交易所 88 家非金融类上市公司 11 年(2009-2019 年)的财务报告。应用 Barron and Kenny、Sobel 和其他检验方法研究了中介效应和中介关系。研究结果表明,管理所有权对公司价值有积极影响,外国所有权对公司价值有积极影响。同时,研究还发现管理者所有权和外资所有权对权责发生制收益管理有负面影响,而权责发生制收益管理对公司价值有正面影响。在中介关系方面,研究结果表明应计收益管理对管理者所有权与公司价值之间的关系具有中介效应,应计收益管理对外资所有权与公司价值之间的关系具有中介效应。然而,权责发生制收益管理对家族所有权与公司价值之间的关系没有中介作用。这说明了通过投资者(管理者和外资)身份减少应计收益管理的重要性,这有助于增强控制力,提高公司价值。
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引用次数: 0
Role of behavioral biases in the investment decisions of Pakistan Stock Exchange investors: Moderating role of investment experience 行为偏差在巴基斯坦证券交易所投资者投资决策中的作用:投资经验的调节作用
Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2024-02-02 DOI: 10.21511/imfi.21(1).2024.12
Muhammad Asif Khan, Saima Aziz, Shahid Mehmood, Anita Tangl
Despite many revolutionary asset pricing models developed over the past decades, traditional finance does not explain investor behavior very well. The purpose of this study is to examine the influence of behavioral biases on the investment decisions of investors of Pakistan Stock Exchange. In addition, the moderating influence of investment experience investigated in this study. The findings were reported using a sample of 230 individual investors, who make their own investments, typically through a mutual fund, bank, or internet broker. They make investments to achieve their unique investment objectives, such as saving for retirement, a child’s education, or increasing their overall wealth. The influence of behavioral biases on investment decisions was calculated using regression analysis. Regression results show that beta and t-values are significant and have a significant impact on investment decisions. Regression findings show that Confirmation Bias, Gamblers Fallacy Bias, Negativity Bias, Bandwagon Effect Bias, Loss Aversion Bias, and Overconfidence Bias all have a substantial impact on Investment Decisions. Status quo prejudice and endowment bias have a favorable but minor influence on Investment Decisions. Investment Experience is regarded as an essential component that contributes to successful decision making under risk and uncertainty, however the results of this study show that moderating variables have a minor influence. According to the findings, the moderating variable had no effect on the connection between behavioral biases and investment decisions. And the reason for this is that behavioral biases persist regardless of investing experience.
尽管过去几十年来开发了许多革命性的资产定价模型,但传统金融学并不能很好地解释投资者的行为。本研究旨在探讨行为偏差对巴基斯坦证券交易所投资者投资决策的影响。此外,本研究还调查了投资经验的调节作用。研究结果以 230 名个人投资者为样本进行报告,这些投资者通常通过共同基金、银行或互联网经纪人进行自己的投资。他们进行投资是为了实现自己独特的投资目标,如为退休、子女教育或增加整体财富而储蓄。我们使用回归分析法计算了行为偏差对投资决策的影响。回归结果显示,贝塔值和 t 值显著,对投资决策有重大影响。回归结果显示,确认偏差、赌徒谬误偏差、消极偏差、万众效应偏差、损失厌恶偏差和过度自信偏差都对投资决策有重大影响。现状偏见和禀赋偏见对投资决策有有利影响,但影响较小。投资经验被认为是风险和不确定性条件下成功决策的重要组成部分,但本研究结果表明,调节变量的影响较小。根据研究结果,调节变量对行为偏差与投资决策之间的联系没有影响。其原因在于,无论投资经验如何,行为偏差都会持续存在。
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引用次数: 0
Foreign investor portfolio flow and monetary policy response in the Indonesian stock market considering the COVID-19 pandemic 考虑到 COVID-19 大流行,印尼股市的外国投资者投资组合流动和货币政策反应
Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2024-01-25 DOI: 10.21511/imfi.21(1).2024.08
H. Subagyo, H. Hersugondo, Wijaya Marcellino Candra, Kardison Lumban Batu, Dwi Eko Waluyo
Foreign portfolio investment in developing countries, including Indonesia, plays a crucial role in the economy, where this fund flow can influence exchange rates and stimulate price increases in the stock market. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the volatility of foreign portfolio flows by investors has significantly increased. To anticipate these conditions, the monetary authorities in Indonesia have implemented various monetary policies to address the possibility of more adverse situations. This study examines the impact of the inflow or outflow of foreign portfolio investments and the monetary policies reflected in the 7-day repo rate of Bank Indonesia on the Indonesian stock market. The data were collected from April 4, 2016, to March 18, 2022. The research methodology involves the Non-Linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag and the Markov Switching Regression (MSR) model. The findings indicate that foreign investor portfolio flows influence the Jakarta Composite Index. There is a tendency for domestic investors to analyze the habits of foreign investors. The study also found that monetary policy is not proven to affect the Jakarta Composite Index, while the USD/IDR exchange rate has an impact on the Indonesian stock market. This indicates many companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange have debt in dollars or are paid in US dollars, making them vulnerable to exchange rate fluctuations.
在包括印度尼西亚在内的发展中国家,外国证券投资在经济中发挥着至关重要的作用,这种资金流动可以影响汇率,刺激股票市场价格上涨。在 COVID-19 大流行期间,投资者的外国证券投资流动的波动性大大增加。为预测这些情况,印尼货币当局实施了各种货币政策,以应对可能出现的更多不利情况。本研究探讨了外国证券投资的流入或流出以及印尼银行 7 天回购利率所反映的货币政策对印尼股市的影响。数据收集时间为 2016 年 4 月 4 日至 2022 年 3 月 18 日。研究方法包括非线性自回归分布滞后和马尔科夫切换回归(MSR)模型。研究结果表明,外国投资者的投资组合流动会影响雅加达综合指数。国内投资者倾向于分析外国投资者的习惯。研究还发现,事实证明货币政策不会影响雅加达综合指数,而美元兑印尼盾汇率则会对印尼股市产生影响。这表明,许多在印尼证券交易所上市的公司都有美元债务或以美元支付,因此很容易受到汇率波动的影响。
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引用次数: 0
A literacy of the relevance of Asian value sustainability reporting in Indonesia 印度尼西亚对亚洲价值可持续性报告相关性的扫盲
Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2024-01-23 DOI: 10.21511/imfi.21(1).2024.07
P. Hardiningsih, Cahyani Nuswandari, Ceacilia Srimindarti, Gregorius Anggana Lisiantara, Ira Setiawati
An independent institution gives appreciation to companies in Indonesia that have published their sustainability reports by ranking their sustainability reports in the Asia Sustainability Reporting Rating. This institution plays a role in facilitating and encouraging companies, organizations and other entities in Indonesia to adopt good sustainability reporting practices. This ranking factor is predicted to influence the movement of abnormal returns so that it can influence value relevance through the earnings response coefficient. The aim of this study is to reveal the relevance of value in order to obtain empirical evidence regarding the influence of sustainability reports, sustainable report ratings and earnings persistence on the earnings response coefficient. The research sample was 130 companies in Indonesia that were included in the Asia Sustainability Reporting Ranking for the period 2019 to 2022. This paper uses a quantitative multiple linear regression method to test the hypothesis. The research results show that consistent profits can be predicted from the past and make a positive contribution to future earnings response. A company transparently discloses its performance in the sustainability aspect, thereby making the profit response more positive. Companies with high sustainability ratings tend to get a more positive profit response from the market and stakeholders. This study suggests that management and company owners in Indonesia are aware of the need to pay attention to long-term sustainability through the publication of sustainability reports to become a company’s commitment to implementing sustainability and minimizing risks arising from the company’s economic, social and environmental activities.AcknowledgmentsThe authors would like to thank the Directorate of Research, Community Service and Publications (DPPMP) of Stikubank University for supporting the funding of this research. Thanks also to fellow FEB lecturers who have helped provide the facilities needed for this research.
一个独立机构通过在亚洲可持续发展报告评级中对发布可持续发展报告的印尼公司进行排名,对这些公司表示赞赏。该机构在促进和鼓励印尼的公司、组织和其他实体采用良好的可持续发展报告实践方面发挥着作用。据预测,这一排名因素会影响异常回报的变动,从而通过收益反应系数影响价值相关性。本研究旨在揭示价值相关性,以获得有关可持续发展报告、可持续发展报告评级和收益持续性对收益反应系数影响的经验证据。研究样本为印度尼西亚 130 家公司,这些公司被纳入 2019 年至 2022 年亚洲可持续发展报告排名。本文采用定量多元线性回归方法对假设进行检验。研究结果表明,稳定的利润可以从过去的利润中预测出来,并对未来的收益反应做出积极贡献。公司透明地披露其在可持续发展方面的表现,从而使利润反应更加积极。可持续发展评级高的公司往往能从市场和利益相关者那里获得更积极的利润反应。这项研究表明,印尼的管理层和公司所有者都意识到,有必要通过发布可持续发展报告来关注长期的可持续发展,以体现公司对实施可持续发展的承诺,并最大限度地降低公司在经济、社会和环境活动中产生的风险。此外,还要感谢 FEB 的其他讲师,他们为本研究提供了所需的设施。
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引用次数: 0
The expertise of internal accounting control personnel and financial statement conservatism: Korean evidence 内部会计控制人员的专业知识与财务报表的保守性:韩国证据
Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2024-01-17 DOI: 10.21511/imfi.21(1).2024.05
Ki wi Chung, Soo-Joon Chae
The purpose of this study is to analyze how the expertise of internal accounting control personnel impacts financial statement conservatism. This study analyzed companies listed on the Korean stock market. Listed companies in Korea have been disclosing information on internal accounting personnel since 2012. Using a fixed-effect regression model, an analysis of 3,276 firm-years from 2012 to 2018 shows a positive correlation between the expertise of internal accounting control personnel and financial statement conservatism. The results from Ball and Shivakumar’s (2006) CF, DD, and Jones models are all significant at the 1% level, enhancing the robustness of the study’s findings. The coefficients were 0.872, 0.869, and 0.846, and the t-values were 3.93, 3.95, and 3.83 in each model. This indicates that firms with CPAs (Certified Public Accountant) among their internal accounting control personnel show stronger tendencies toward conservatism compared to those without CPAs. Furthermore, an analysis based on the firm ownership structure reveals a positive correlation between internal accounting control personnel expertise and financial statement conservatism in a non-Chaebol subsample (coefficient = 1.043, t-value = 3.58 in CF model); however, the results in the Chaebol subsample were not significant. This suggests that while having CPAs involved in non-Chaebol firms’ internal control is effective, it is not effective in Chaebol companies that are highly influenced by their owners.
本研究旨在分析内部会计控制人员的专业知识如何影响财务报表的保守性。本研究分析了在韩国股票市场上市的公司。韩国上市公司自 2012 年起开始披露内部会计人员的信息。通过使用固定效应回归模型,对2012年至2018年的3276个公司年度进行分析,结果显示内部会计控制人员的专业知识与财务报表保守主义之间存在正相关关系。Ball 和 Shivakumar(2006 年)的 CF、DD 和 Jones 模型的结果均在 1%的水平上显著,增强了研究结果的稳健性。每个模型的系数分别为 0.872、0.869 和 0.846,t 值分别为 3.93、3.95 和 3.83。这表明,与没有注册会计师的公司相比,内部会计控制人员中有注册会计师的公司表现出更强的保守主义倾向。此外,基于公司所有权结构的分析表明,在非财阀子样本中,内部会计控制人员的专业知识与财务报表保守主义之间存在正相关关系(系数 = 1.043,CF 模型中的 t 值 = 3.58);然而,在财阀子样本中的结果并不显著。这表明,虽然让注册会计师参与非朝鲜企业的内部控制是有效的,但在受所有者影响较大的朝鲜企业中却无效。
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引用次数: 0
ESG ratings and stock performance in the internet industry 互联网行业的 ESG 评级与股票表现
Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2024-01-17 DOI: 10.21511/imfi.21(1).2024.04
Lan Wang, Zhenyuan Weng, Chunxiao Xue, Jianing Zhang
Amidst the escalating emphasis on sustainable development, numerous corporations and organizations have intensified their environmental, social, and governance (ESG) efforts. The internet sector, intrinsically linked to the ESG domain, has consequently garnered amplified scrutiny. This study delves into the correlation between ESG ratings and the stock performance of publicly listed Chinese companies in the internet sector from 2016 to 2020. The findings reveal that initiatives in the ESG sphere significantly and negatively influence stock performance in these firms, assessed through raw stock returns, stock excess returns relative to the market index, Jensen’s one-factor alpha, and the Fama-French three-factor alpha. This inverse correlation between ESG ratings and stock performance is nonlinear and convex, indicating a lessening negative impact at elevated ESG levels. Moreover, this adverse effect is more pronounced in value stocks compared to growth stocks. Predominantly manifesting before 2018, this negative trend diminishes amidst the COVID-19 period. The reverse causality analysis employing lagged ESG ratings suggests that higher ESG ratings precipitate reduced stock performance, as opposed to vice versa. This study bridges a gap in the existing literature concerning ESG and stock performance specific to the Chinese internet industry and proposes recommendations for its sustainable evolution.AcknowledgmentThis research was supported by the Department of Education of Zhejiang Province General Program (Y202249981, Y202353438), the Wenzhou Association for Science and Technology – Service and Technology Innovation Program (jczc0254), the Wenzhou-Kean University Student Partnering with Faculty Research Program (WKUSPF2023004), the Wenzhou-Kean University International Collaborative Research Program (ICRP2023002, ICRP2023004), and the Wenzhou-Kean University Internal Research Support Program (IRSPG202205, IRSPG202206).
随着对可持续发展的重视程度不断提高,许多企业和组织都加强了在环境、社会和治理(ESG)方面的努力。与 ESG 领域有着内在联系的互联网行业也因此受到了更多的关注。本研究探讨了 2016 年至 2020 年中国互联网行业上市公司的 ESG 评级与股票表现之间的相关性。研究结果表明,通过原始股票收益率、相对于市场指数的股票超额收益率、詹森单因子阿尔法和法玛-法式三因子阿尔法评估,ESG领域的举措对这些公司的股票表现有显著的负面影响。ESG 评级与股票表现之间的反向相关性是非线性和凸性的,表明 ESG 水平越高,负面影响越小。此外,与成长型股票相比,这种不利影响在价值型股票中更为明显。这种负面趋势主要表现在 2018 年之前,在 COVID-19 期间有所减弱。采用滞后 ESG 评级的反向因果关系分析表明,ESG 评级越高,股票表现越差,反之亦然。本研究填补了现有文献中有关中国互联网行业 ESG 与股票表现的空白,并为该行业的可持续发展提出了建议。致谢本研究得到了浙江省教育厅一般项目(Y202249981、Y202353438)、温州市科协-服务与科技创新项目(jczc0254)、温州肯恩大学学生资助项目(Y202249981、Y202353438)和温州市科协-服务与科技创新项目(jczc0254)的支持、温州肯恩大学学生与教师合作研究项目(WKUSPF2023004)、温州肯恩大学国际合作研究项目(ICRP2023002、ICRP2023004)和温州肯恩大学校内科研支持项目(IRSPG202205、IRSPG202206)。
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引用次数: 0
Unraveling behavioral biases in decision making: A study of Nepalese investors 揭示决策中的行为偏差:对尼泊尔投资者的研究
Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2024-01-10 DOI: 10.21511/imfi.21(1).2024.03
Rajesh Gurung, Rewan Kumar Dahal, B. Ghimire, Nischal Koirala
The Nepalese stock market has experienced substantial transformations in recent years. Research on investors’ herding behavior is of paramount importance since it explores the influence of collective choices made by investors, which could result in intensified market price fluctuations. This study examined the influence of behavioral biases on investment decisions among Nepalese investors – general individuals who actively participate in the country’s stock market, considering overconfidence, representative, anchoring, regret aversion, and herding biases as explanatory variables, with investment decisions as the response variable. The study employed a linear regression model, establishing relationships using a structured questionnaire with 379 observations. The study revealed the significant influence of overconfidence, anchoring, and regret aversion biases on investment decisions among Nepalese investors. Conversely, the influence of representative bias had a little impact on investment choices, and herding behavior showed no significant relationship with investment decisions. Hence, it suggests that behavioral biases have a greater impact on individual investment choices in the Nepalese financial market. It is essential for investors, advisers, and policymakers to be aware of and address these biases to make well-informed decisions, maintain financial stability, and foster market development.
近年来,尼泊尔股票市场经历了重大变革。对投资者羊群行为的研究至关重要,因为它可以探讨投资者集体选择的影响,从而导致市场价格波动加剧。本研究将过度自信、代表性、锚定、后悔厌恶和羊群行为偏差作为解释变量,将投资决策作为响应变量,考察了行为偏差对尼泊尔投资者--积极参与该国股票市场的普通个人--投资决策的影响。研究采用了线性回归模型,通过结构化问卷调查了 379 个观测点,建立了相关关系。研究表明,过度自信、锚定和后悔偏差对尼泊尔投资者的投资决策有重大影响。相反,代表性偏差对投资决策的影响较小,羊群行为与投资决策无显著关系。因此,这表明行为偏差对尼泊尔金融市场中个人投资选择的影响更大。投资者、顾问和政策制定者必须意识到并解决这些偏差,才能做出明智的决策,维护金融稳定,促进市场发展。
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引用次数: 0
Financial determinants of environmental, social and governance performance: Empirical evidence from India 环境、社会和治理绩效的财务决定因素:印度的经验证据
Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2024-01-08 DOI: 10.21511/imfi.21(1).2024.02
Bhavya Joshi, Himanshu Joshi
The present study aims to examine the firm-level financial determinants of ESG performance. It elucidates what financial resources it takes to enable the integration of ESG practices and improve a firm’s ESG scores, based on a sample of 94 Indian firms listed on the National Stock Exchange of India between 2015 and 2020. Econometrically, the study employs fixed effects and random effects panel data models as an appropriate methodology. The findings show that firm size, asset intangibility, analyst coverage, and operating cash flow influence firms’ ESG scores positively, whereas leveraging and strategic holding impact them negatively. In addition to the mentioned variables, cash holdings positively influence firms’ environmental, social, and governance scores. While dividend yield does not contribute to combined ESG and governance scores, it has a positive impact on a firm’s environmental and social scores. This is the first study examining the determinants of firm-level ESG performance in an emerging market. Results endorse the interaction of legitimacy theory and slack resource theory in determining a firm’s ESG performance.AcknowledgementThe infrastructural support provided by FORE School of Management, New Delhi, India in completing this paper is gratefully acknowledged.
本研究旨在探讨公司层面的环境、社会和公司治理绩效的财务决定因素。它以 2015 年至 2020 年期间在印度国家证券交易所上市的 94 家印度公司为样本,阐明了需要哪些财务资源才能实现 ESG 实践的整合并提高公司的 ESG 分数。在经济学上,研究采用了固定效应和随机效应面板数据模型作为适当的方法。研究结果表明,公司规模、资产无形性、分析师覆盖率和经营现金流对公司的ESG得分有正面影响,而杠杆作用和战略控股则对其有负面影响。除上述变量外,现金持有量也会对企业的环境、社会和治理得分产生积极影响。虽然股息率对企业的环境、社会和治理综合得分没有影响,但对企业的环境和社会得分有积极影响。这是首次研究新兴市场中公司层面环境、社会和治理绩效的决定因素。研究结果认可了合法性理论和松弛资源理论在决定企业环境、社会和治理绩效方面的相互作用。 鸣谢印度新德里 FORE 管理学院为本文的完成提供了基础设施支持,在此表示感谢。
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引用次数: 0
The influence of selected financial factors on the survival of SMES in V4 countries 特定金融因素对 V4 国家中小企业生存的影响
Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-12-22 DOI: 10.21511/imfi.20(4).2023.36
Zdenko Metzker, Roman Hlawiczka, Irma Tabaku, Ho Thanh Tung
Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) play a crucial role in the global economy. This article examines SMEs’ financial management attitudes in the Visegrad Four countries, aiming to understand how these attitudes impact the firms’ long-term sustainability. The empirical study, conducted in June 2022, involved 1,398 respondents, comprising owners or top managers of SMEs from V4 countries. The research explores various facets of the long-term viability of companies over the next five years. Central to the investigation is understanding how managerial comprehension of critical financial management aspects, the willingness to embrace financial risks, and effective risk management contribute to a company’s enduring success. Additionally, the study assesses how a positive evaluation of a company’s financial performance correlates with its overall longevity in the business landscape.Results indicate that financial management significantly influences SME stability in the medium term. Factors positively affecting SME stability include a proper understanding and management of financial risks, along with a positive assessment of the company’s financial activities. Correlation analysis suggests that the perception of business continuity over a 5-year horizon moderately depends on understanding key financial management aspects, accepting financial risks as part of daily operations, and adeptly managing them. A positive vision of V4 SME management regarding their own future emerged as a crucial factor in the study. In conclusion, the article underscores the importance of effective financial management practices, risk comprehension, and positive self-assessment for SMEs to achieve sustained stability in the dynamic business landscape.AcknowledgmentThis work is supported by Tomas Bata University in Zlin through IGA/FaME/2023/014: CSR as an important factor in obtaining bank loans and external financial sources for SMEs.
中小型企业(SMEs)在全球经济中发挥着至关重要的作用。本文研究了维谢格拉德四国中小企业的财务管理态度,旨在了解这些态度如何影响企业的长期可持续性。这项实证研究于 2022 年 6 月进行,共有 1398 名受访者,包括维谢格拉德四国中小企业的所有者或高层管理人员。研究探讨了企业未来五年长期生存能力的各个方面。调查的核心是了解管理者对关键财务管理方面的理解、承担财务风险的意愿以及有效的风险管理如何促进公司的持久成功。此外,本研究还评估了对公司财务业绩的积极评价与其在商业领域的整体寿命之间的关系。结果表明,财务管理对中小企业的中期稳定性有重大影响。对中小企业稳定性产生积极影响的因素包括对财务风险的正确理解和管理,以及对公司财务活动的积极评价。相关分析表明,对 5 年期业务连续性的看法在一定程度上取决于对财务管理关键方面的理解、将财务风险作为日常运营的一部分并加以妥善管理。在研究中,V4 中小企业管理层对自身未来的积极愿景成为一个关键因素。总之,文章强调了有效的财务管理实践、风险理解和积极的自我评估对于中小企业在动态的商业环境中实现持续稳定发展的重要性:企业社会责任是中小企业获得银行贷款和外部资金来源的重要因素。
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引用次数: 0
Financial and investment indicators for accelerating innovation development: Comparison of GII leaders and Ukraine 加快创新发展的金融和投资指标:全球创新指数领先者与乌克兰的比较
Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-12-22 DOI: 10.21511/imfi.20(4).2023.35
Olena Dobrovolska, Ralf Sonntag, Svitlana Kachula, Olha Hubaryk, Tetіana Savanchuk
The purpose of the paper is to determine the causal relationship between financial and investment indicators and the level of innovation development in GII leading countries and Ukraine. For a sample of 10 leaders in GII-2022 and Ukraine for 2011–2020, a correlation analysis was conducted based on the following indicators: the value of GII, foreign direct investment (net inflows), domestic credit to the private sector, ease of getting credit, protecting minority investors, and real interest rate. A positive relationship (with moderate/high strength) between innovation development and foreign direct investment has been proven in 7 out of 11 countries with a time lag of 0-2 years; domestic credit to the private sector – in 6 countries (lag of 0-3 years); and protecting minority investors – in 9 countries (lag of 0-2 years). For other indicators, the relationship is negative. Through VAR-modelling and Granger test, it is proven that the change in the value of foreign direct investment causes the change in the value of GII in 6 countries (bidirectional causality exists only in Ukraine); domestic credit to the private sector – in 6 countries, protecting minority investors and real interest rate – in 2 countries, and ease of getting credit – only in Switzerland. The results show that foreign direct investment and domestic credit to the private sector are the reasons for increasing the level of innovation development and have potentially the highest influence. In Ukraine, compared to GII leaders, only the factor of foreign direct investment is identified as a cause of innovation development.
本文旨在确定全球创新指数领先国家和乌克兰的金融和投资指标与创新发展水平之间的因果关系。本文以全球创新指数 2022 年的 10 个领先国家和乌克兰 2011-2020 年的 10 个领先国家为样本,根据以下指标进行了相关性分析:全球创新指数值、外国直接投资(净流入)、私营部门国内信贷、获得信贷的难易程度、保护少数投资者和实际利率。在 11 个国家中,有 7 个国家的创新发展与外国直接投资之间存在正相关关系(中等/高强度),滞后期为 0-2 年;有 6 个国家的私营部门国内信贷存在正相关关系(滞后期为 0-3 年);有 9 个国家的保护少数投资者存在正相关关系(滞后期为 0-2 年)。其他指标则呈负相关。通过 VAR 模型和格兰杰检验证明,在 6 个国家,外国直接投资额的变化会引起 GII 值的变化(只有乌克兰存在双向因果关系);在 6 个国家,私营部门的国内信贷;在 2 个国家,保护少数投资者和实际利率;只有瑞士,获得信贷的难易程度。结果表明,外国直接投资和私营部门国内信贷是提高创新发展水平的原因,其潜在影响最大。与全球创新指数领先国家相比,乌克兰只有外国直接投资因素被认为是创新发展的原因。
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引用次数: 0
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Investment Management and Financial Innovations
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