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Emergency management as a complex adaptive system. 应急管理是一个复杂的适应性系统。
Q3 Medicine Pub Date : 2021-01-01
Lori R Hodges, Michael D Larra

This paper explores the application of insights from the study of Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS) to emergency management in search of an adaptive approach to hazard management capable of functioning with increased effectiveness in dynamic, uncertain and unclear environments. This approach demands a shift in perception towards seeing emergency management at the local, tribal, state and national level as a CAS. To function successfully as a CAS, emergency management must move past its current linear hazard-based approach to a hazard-agnostic consequence-based systems approach. This must be predicated on building an understanding of systems, nodes and influencers within and around the emergency management networks before a disruption occurs. This paper encourages emergency managers to map the networks they exist within, describing the nature of the relationships between nodes and identifying their interdependencies, and to cultivate an understanding of CAS. This builds an appreciation of the critical emergency management functional components and the consequences of those components failing. Finally, the paper offers recommendations for emergency management agencies to begin the transformational process of emergency management from bureaucracy to a CAS.

本文探讨了从复杂适应系统(CAS)研究的见解到应急管理的应用,以寻找一种在动态、不确定和不明确的环境中能够更有效地运作的危险管理的自适应方法。这一办法要求转变观念,将地方、部落、州和国家一级的应急管理视为一种CAS。为了成功地发挥CAS的作用,应急管理必须从目前基于危害的线性方法转向基于危害的后果系统方法。这必须以在中断发生之前对应急管理网络内部和周围的系统、节点和影响者建立理解为基础。本文鼓励应急管理人员绘制他们存在的网络,描述节点之间关系的性质并确定其相互依赖性,并培养对CAS的理解。这使人们认识到关键的应急管理职能组成部分以及这些组成部分失灵的后果。最后,本文提出了应急管理机构从官僚制向CAS转型的建议。
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引用次数: 0
Weak and fragile state-related terrorism and entrepreneurialism. 与脆弱国家相关的恐怖主义和创业主义。
Q3 Medicine Pub Date : 2021-01-01
Donald Meyerhoff

Terrorist groups resident in weak states are comprised of tribal-like entities conducting numerous attacks against persons and property in developing or struggling regions of the world where socio-economic conditions and governmental controls are problematic. To better understand the environmental conditions and potential impacts that such attacks have on business interests, this paper examines terrorist attack data from 2018. The study utilises a correlative analysis of relationship strengths between predictor variables commonly associated with weak and fragile states experiencing a high volume of terrorist attacks. The study also examines the impact of terrorism on a state's economic and entrepreneurial environment.

居住在弱国的恐怖组织由类似部落的实体组成,在世界上社会经济条件和政府控制存在问题的发展中或挣扎地区对人员和财产进行多次袭击。为了更好地了解环境条件和此类攻击对商业利益的潜在影响,本文研究了2018年的恐怖袭击数据。该研究利用了预测变量之间关系强度的相关分析,这些变量通常与经历大量恐怖袭击的脆弱国家相关。该研究还考察了恐怖主义对一个国家的经济和创业环境的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Acknowledgment and the Dedication 致谢和奉献
Q3 Medicine Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/b978-0-12-813844-1.09987-5
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引用次数: 0
Pandemic planning: Historical and practical perspectives. 流行病规划:历史和现实的观点。
Q3 Medicine Pub Date : 2021-01-01
Cynthia L Simeone

This article provides historical and practical information for business resilience practitioners regarding pandemic planning, suggesting a comprehensive approach not only to help stabilise organisational response to the current novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19), but also identify economic and societal considerations for long-term pandemic planning and response. The article provides historical data regarding the impact of contagious disease, including medical and psychosocial considerations, suggesting the necessity for ongoing independent disease surveillance and a multi-disciplinary approach to ensure the effective management of business operations while supporting workers who may be displaced from their traditional work environments.

本文为业务弹性从业者提供了有关大流行规划的历史和实用信息,提出了一种综合方法,不仅有助于稳定组织对当前新型冠状病毒疾病(COVID-19)的响应,而且还确定了长期大流行规划和响应的经济和社会考虑因素。这篇文章提供了关于传染病影响的历史数据,包括医疗和社会心理方面的考虑,表明有必要进行持续的独立疾病监测和多学科方法,以确保对企业运营进行有效管理,同时为可能从传统工作环境中流离失所的工人提供支持。
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引用次数: 0
Supply chain resilience. 供应链弹性。
Q3 Medicine Pub Date : 2021-01-01
Alan Elwood

This paper explores the significance of supply chains to modern economies and the brittle nature of those supply chains. It considers how this brittleness is increasingly exposed by an array of threats, both natural and manmade, as well as the pressures placed on supply chains from rapid changes in society's expectations and priorities, including with respect to globalisation and ethical considerations. The paper establishes why resilience matters, setting out the degree to which known risks are mitigated and assessing the current status of supply chain resilience. Finally, practical techniques are suggested by which organisations may better understand the risks to their supply chains and enhance the resilience of those chains.

本文探讨了供应链对现代经济的意义以及供应链的脆弱性。它考虑了这种脆弱性如何日益暴露于一系列自然和人为的威胁,以及社会期望和优先事项的快速变化(包括全球化和道德考虑)对供应链施加的压力。本文确定了弹性的重要性,列出了已知风险减轻的程度,并评估了供应链弹性的现状。最后,提出了实用的技术建议,组织可以更好地了解其供应链的风险,并提高这些链的弹性。
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引用次数: 0
Achieving business resiliency to natural disasters through the lens of risk management and insurance. 通过风险管理和保险实现对自然灾害的业务弹性。
Q3 Medicine Pub Date : 2021-01-01
Frank Russo, Tracy Alan Saxe, Joe Poliafico

Natural disasters have been occurring more frequently and with greater potency, creating a real and heightened financial and operational risk to businesses around the globe. This paper aims to enhance traditional business continuity techniques and strategies by discussing how risk management, insurance and claims knowledge can form a robust platform from which to minimise the impacts of natural disasters on business. To this end, the paper combines professional knowledge from the fields of risk management, disaster response and insurance claims recovery to offer best practices in the key phases of planning and response.

自然灾害发生的频率越来越高,破坏力也越来越大,给全球企业带来了实实在在的、更大的财务和运营风险。本文旨在通过讨论风险管理、保险和理赔知识如何形成一个强大的平台,以最大限度地减少自然灾害对业务的影响,从而加强传统的业务连续性技术和策略。为此,本文结合风险管理、灾害应对和保险理赔恢复领域的专业知识,为规划和应对的关键阶段提供最佳实践。
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引用次数: 0
Rhinos and risk assessments: Adjusting risk assessment methodologies to account for 'unforeseeable' events. 犀牛和风险评估:调整风险评估方法以考虑“不可预见”的事件。
Q3 Medicine Pub Date : 2021-01-01
Jo Robertson

It is wrong to describe the COVID-19 pandemic as a 'black swan' (ie a catastrophic event that no one saw coming). Far more apt would be to call it a 'grey rhino' - something that has long been predicted but overlooked by leadership the world over. This paper argues that it is time to stop relying on outdated risk formulas and adjust risk assessment methodologies to account for these grey rhinos. Simply put, it is time to accept that the potential impact of an event is more important than its likelihood.

将COVID-19大流行描述为“黑天鹅”(即没有人预见到的灾难性事件)是错误的。更贴切的说法是“灰犀牛”——世界各国领导人早就预测到了这一点,但却忽视了这一点。本文认为,现在是时候停止依赖过时的风险公式,调整风险评估方法,以考虑这些灰犀牛。简单地说,现在是时候接受一个事实,即事件的潜在影响比其发生的可能性更重要。
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引用次数: 0
Building adaptive business continuity plans: Practical tips on how to inject adaptiveness into continuity planning processes. 建立适应性业务连续性计划:关于如何在连续性计划过程中注入适应性的实用技巧。
Q3 Medicine Pub Date : 2021-01-01
Tracy Hatton, Charlotte Brown

With the world becoming increasingly complex and uncertain, the disruptions that businesses face are becoming increasingly unpredictable. Traditional approaches to business continuity planning must therefore evolve to enhance organisational resilience. As this paper will discuss, it is vital to ensure a balance between detailed planning and flexibility and adaptability. This can be achieved through: 1) creating closer links between business continuity and strategic management; 2) embedding a culture of resilience throughout the organisation; 3) decentralising business continuity planning and enabling teams and departments to design and own their own plans; 4) making planning principles- based; and 5) exercising more frequently. This paper argues that planning must be based on principles and outcomes rather than processes, and how it must, to be integrated within broader risk management and strategy functions to be inclusive of everyone, from the staff all the way up to the board. In short, preparedness and resilience must become part of their DNA.

随着世界变得越来越复杂和不确定,企业面临的中断也变得越来越不可预测。因此,传统的业务连续性规划方法必须不断发展,以增强组织的弹性。正如本文将讨论的那样,确保详细规划与灵活性和适应性之间的平衡至关重要。这可以通过以下方式实现:1)在业务连续性和战略管理之间建立更紧密的联系;2)在整个组织中嵌入弹性文化;3)分散业务连续性计划,使团队和部门能够设计和拥有自己的计划;4)以规划原则为基础;5)更频繁地锻炼。本文认为,规划必须基于原则和结果,而不是过程,以及如何将其整合到更广泛的风险管理和战略职能中,以包容所有人,从员工一直到董事会。简而言之,准备和恢复能力必须成为它们DNA的一部分。
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引用次数: 0
Spinning straw into gold: The fairy tale of disaster cost recovery. 把稻草纺成金子:灾难成本恢复的童话。
Q3 Medicine Pub Date : 2021-01-01
Michael Martinet

Globally, disasters appear to be growing in frequency, intensity and cost. While national governments provide varying levels of assistance to affected populations and regions, are local agencies doing what they can to prepare for the next disaster? This article discusses what can be done, sometimes at minimal cost, to be better prepared to recover economically from the next disaster.

在全球范围内,灾害的频率、强度和成本似乎都在增加。虽然各国政府为受灾人口和地区提供了不同程度的援助,但地方机构是否在尽其所能为下一次灾难做好准备?本文讨论了可以做些什么,有时成本最低,以便更好地从下一次灾难中恢复经济。
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引用次数: 0
Integrating local personnel response and recovery capacity: A conceptual model for small to medium enterprise hazard risk analysis. 整合当地人员反应和恢复能力:中小企业危害风险分析的概念模型。
Q3 Medicine Pub Date : 2021-01-01
Steven Haynes, Tony McAleavy

Small-to-medium enterprises (SMEs) are vulnerable to disasters because of their limited ability to duplicate, separate and diversify their risk. SMEs must therefore rely on local personnel and resources to plan for, respond to, and recover from disasters. Unfortunately, community-level planning does not readily incorporate SMEs effectively. SMEs are thus forced to plan in isolation as current hazard risk analysis (HRA) models do not adequately account for the capacity of local personnel to respond to emergent hazards. Accordingly, this study posits an easy-to-use SME disaster impact model for HRA that combines probability theory and statistical analysis to integrate local personnel capacity. The model is designed specifically for SME usage; although, it can be applied to any organisation regardless of size. This study proposes a standardised HRA probability and consequence sequence based on the analysis of over 400 locations and risks that determined the model's reliability in practice. The posited SME disaster impact model for HRA effectively integrates vulnerability and local personnel capacity with services, personnel and equipment to optimise SME disaster response and recovery capacity.

由于中小企业复制、分离和分散风险的能力有限,它们很容易受到灾害的影响。因此,中小企业必须依靠当地人员和资源来规划、应对灾害并从灾害中恢复过来。不幸的是,社区一级的规划并不容易有效地纳入中小企业。因此,中小企业被迫孤立规划,因为目前的灾害风险分析模型没有充分考虑到当地人员应对紧急灾害的能力。因此,本研究提出了一个易于使用的中小企业人力资源管理灾害影响模型,将概率论与统计分析相结合,以整合当地人员能力。该模型是专门为中小企业使用而设计的;尽管如此,它可以应用于任何组织,无论大小。本文在分析了400多个地点和风险的基础上,提出了一个标准化的HRA概率和后果序列,这些地点和风险决定了模型在实践中的可靠性。提出的HRA中小企业灾害影响模型有效地将脆弱性和当地人员能力与服务、人员和设备相结合,以优化中小企业的灾害响应和恢复能力。
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Journal of business continuity & emergency planning
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