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Journal of Cost Analysis and Parametrics最新文献

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A Scenario-Based Method for Cost Risk Analysis 基于场景的成本风险分析方法
Pub Date : 2008-03-01 DOI: 10.1080/1941658X.2008.10462211
P. Garvey
Abstract This article presents an approach for performing an analysis of a program's cost risk. The approach is referred to as the scenario-based method (SBM). This method provides program managers and decision-makers an assessment of the amount of cost reserve needed to protect a program from cost overruns due to risk. The approach can be applied without the use of advanced statistical concepts or Monte Carlo simulations, yet is flexible in that confidence measures for various possible program costs can be derived.
摘要本文提出了一种对项目成本风险进行分析的方法。这种方法被称为基于场景的方法(SBM)。这种方法为项目经理和决策者提供了一种评估成本储备的方法,以保护项目不因风险而造成成本超支。该方法可以在不使用高级统计概念或蒙特卡罗模拟的情况下应用,但在可以导出各种可能的计划成本的置信度度量方面是灵活的。
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引用次数: 5
Derivation of a Cost Factor for Electronic Data Dissemination: A Case Study 电子数据传播成本因素的推导:一个案例研究
Pub Date : 2008-03-01 DOI: 10.1080/1941658X.2008.10462207
Virginia L. Stouffer
Abstract We describe derivation of a cost factor for data dissemination. Data dissemination is a subcomponent of data. “Data” are described on the third level of an acquisition system's work breakdown structure (WBS). Data costs are infrequently reported in contractor cost data reports (CCDRs), and the costs of data's subcomponents — collection, editing, and dissemination — never appear in CCDRs. Historical data were limited by an industry-wide change in the way data is collected, edited, and disseminated. We estimate a data cost factor from historical data of like programs, account for electronic vs. paper-based data collection, editing, and dissemination and then develop a fraction to capture the dissemination portion alone.
摘要本文描述了数据传播成本因子的推导过程。数据传播是数据的一个子组成部分。“数据”是在采集系统的工作分解结构(WBS)的第三层上描述的。数据成本很少在承包商成本数据报告(ccdr)中报告,数据的子组件(收集、编辑和传播)的成本从未出现在ccdr中。历史数据受到全行业数据收集、编辑和传播方式变化的限制。我们从类似项目的历史数据中估计数据成本因素,考虑电子与纸质数据的收集、编辑和传播,然后开发一个分数来单独捕获传播部分。
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引用次数: 0
Errors-in-Variables Regression for CER Development 用于CER开发的变量误差回归
Pub Date : 2008-03-01 DOI: 10.1080/1941658X.2008.10462208
Raymond P. Covert
Regression techniques used to statistically derive cost estimating relationships (CERs) have traditionally been limited to curve fitting of vectors of discrete dependent variables (cost) with vectors of discrete independent variables (cost drivers). The independent variables on which CERs are based are typically assumed to be discrete and non-random in nature. That is one of the primary assumptions underlying the classical least-squares linear regression process (“ordinary least squares” or OLS). However, uncertainty in the dependent and independent variables can arise as a result of the data collection and normalization process, and in such cases, considering the independent as well as the dependent variables to be random variables may be a more realistic assumption. Errors-in-variables (EIV) regression techniques can be used to find appropriate CERs under the assumption that there may be errors in either the dependent or independent variables or even when both are random variables. This technique is applicable to any regression problem where there is uncertainty in some or all of the data. This article provides an introduction to the application of EIV regression to CER development. First, it provides a history and description of EIV. Next, it provides insight into the sources of uncertainty in data used to develop CERs. It also offers a description of some suitable EIV regression techniques and demonstrates one of these techniques using an EIV regression example. Finally, the article discusses other potential applications of EIV regression in the costestimating context.
用于统计推导成本估算关系(CERs)的回归技术传统上仅限于离散因变量(成本)向量与离散自变量(成本驱动因素)向量的曲线拟合。cer所基于的自变量通常被认为是离散的和非随机的。这是经典最小二乘线性回归过程(“普通最小二乘”或OLS)的主要假设之一。然而,因变量和自变量的不确定性可能由于数据收集和归一化过程而产生,在这种情况下,考虑自变量和因变量都是随机变量可能是一个更现实的假设。假设因变量或自变量都可能存在误差,甚至当两者都是随机变量时,可以使用变量误差回归技术来找到适当的cer。这种技术适用于任何在部分或全部数据中存在不确定性的回归问题。本文介绍了EIV回归在CER开发中的应用。首先,它提供了EIV的历史和描述。接下来,它提供了对用于开发cer的数据中的不确定性来源的洞察。它还提供了一些合适的EIV回归技术的描述,并使用EIV回归示例演示了其中一种技术。最后,文章讨论了EIV回归在成本估算方面的其他潜在应用。
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引用次数: 1
An Easy Way to Allocate Support Department Costs Using the Reciprocal Method 利用互反法分配支持部门成本的简便方法
Pub Date : 2008-03-01 DOI: 10.1080/1941658X.2008.10462209
Gerald K. Debusk, T. Forsyth
Abstract Support department cost allocation is important to external and internal users of a company's financial information. It is widely recognized that the reciprocal method provides the most meaningful allocation because it fully recognizes services provided by support departments for other support departments. Despite its superiority over other methods, the reciprocal method is rarely applied in practice because of perceived complexities in its application. This article illustrates a simple method of applying the reciprocal method to allocate multiple support department costs using an Excel spreadsheet.
摘要支持部门成本分配是企业内部和外部财务信息使用者的重要信息。人们普遍认为,互惠法是最有意义的分配方法,因为它充分认可了支持部门为其他支持部门提供的服务。尽管倒数法比其他方法有优势,但由于其应用的复杂性,在实践中很少应用。本文演示了一种使用Excel电子表格应用互惠法分配多个支持部门成本的简单方法。
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引用次数: 1
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Journal of Cost Analysis and Parametrics
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