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Journal of Cost Analysis and Parametrics最新文献

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Activity-Based Parsimonious Cost Systems 基于作业的节约成本系统
Pub Date : 2014-05-04 DOI: 10.1080/1941658X.2014.929987
Shannon L. Charles, Don R. Hansen
Accurate product costing information is instrumental in effective decision making, especially for product related decisions, such as product mix and product emphasis. A body of literature suggests that activity-based costing plays an important role in providing accurate product costing information. However, activity-based costing systems are also more complex due to the number of cost drivers identified, compared to traditional single cost driver systems. We propose a modification to the activity-based costing system that reduces the complexity. Using the concepts of linearly independent and dependent vectors, it is shown that it is possible to identify parsimonious systems that simplify an activity-based costing system without loss of accuracy. The modification presented in this study will entice more firms to adopt an activity-based costing system and reap the benefits of increased product costing accuracy.
准确的产品成本信息有助于有效的决策,特别是与产品相关的决策,如产品组合和产品重点。大量文献表明,作业成本法在提供准确的产品成本信息方面发挥着重要作用。然而,与传统的单一成本动因系统相比,基于作业的成本核算系统也由于确定的成本动因的数量而更加复杂。我们建议对作业成本法进行修改,以降低其复杂性。利用线性无关和相依矢量的概念,可以确定简化作业成本计算系统而不损失准确性的节约系统。在本研究中提出的修改将吸引更多的公司采用基于作业的成本核算系统,并获得提高产品成本核算准确性的好处。
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引用次数: 1
Cost Risk Allocation Theory and Practice 成本风险分担理论与实践
Pub Date : 2014-05-04 DOI: 10.1080/1941658X.2014.922907
C. Smart
Risk allocation is the assignment of risk reserves from a total project or portfolio level to individual constituent elements. For example, cost risk at the total project level is allocated to individual work breakdown structure elements. This is a non-trivial exercise in most instances, because of issues related to the aggregation of risks, such as the fact that percentiles do not add. For example, if a project is funded at a 70% confidence level then one cannot simply allocate that funding to work breakdown structure elements by assigning each its 70% confidence level estimate. This is because the resulting sum may (but not necessarily will) be larger than the total 70% confidence estimate for the entire project. One method for allocating risk that has commonly been used in practice and has been implemented in a cost estimating integration software package is to assign risk by assigning the element’s standard deviation as a proportion of the sum of the standard deviations for all work breakdown structure elements (Sandberg, 2007). Another popular method notes that risk is typically not symmetric, and looks at the relative contribution of the element’s variation above the mean or other reference estimate. Dr. Steve Book first presented this concept to a limited Government audience in 1992 and presented it to a wider audience several years later (Book, 1992, 2006). This technique, based on the concept of “need,” has been implemented in the NASA/Air Force Cost Model (Smart, 2005). These contributions represent the current state-of-the-practice in cost analysis. The notion of positive semi-variance as an alternative to the needs method was brought forth by Book (2006) and further propounded by Sandberg (2007). A new method proposed by Hermann (personal communication, 2010) discusses the concept of optimality in risk allocation and proposes a one-sided moment objective function for calculating the optimal allocation. An older method, developed in the 1990s by Lockheed Martin, assigns equal percentile allocations for all work breakdown structure elements (Goldberg and Weber, 1998). This method claims to be optimal, and Goldberg and Weber (1998) show that under a very specific assumption, that this is true. Aside from Hermann’s paper and the report by Goldberg and Weber on the Lockheed Martin method, cost risk allocation has typically not been associated with optimality. Neither the proportional standard deviation method nor the needs method guarantees the allocation scheme will be optimal or even necessarily desirable. Indeed, the twin topics of risk measurement and risk allocation have either been treated independently (Book, 2006), or they have been treated as one and the same (Sandberg, 2007). Regardless, the current situation is muddled, with no clear delineation between the two. In this article, the present author introduces to cost analysis the concept of gradient risk allocation, which has been recently used in the areas of finance and insuran
风险分配是将风险储备从整个项目或投资组合级别分配给单个组成元素。例如,整个项目级别的成本风险被分配到单个工作分解结构元素。在大多数情况下,这是一个重要的练习,因为与风险聚集有关的问题,例如百分位数不会增加的事实。例如,如果一个项目的资金是在70%的置信度水平上,那么一个人不能简单地通过分配每个70%置信度水平的估计来分配资金给工作分解结构元素。这是因为最终结果可能(但不一定会)大于整个项目的70%置信度估计。一种在实践中普遍使用并已在成本估算集成软件包中实现的风险分配方法是通过将元素的标准偏差分配为所有工作分解结构元素的标准偏差总和的比例来分配风险(Sandberg, 2007)。另一种流行的方法指出,风险通常是不对称的,并着眼于元素的变化高于平均值或其他参考估计的相对贡献。史蒂夫·布克博士于1992年首次向有限的政府受众提出了这一概念,并在几年后向更广泛的受众提出了这一概念(布克,1992,2006)。这种基于“需求”概念的技术已经在NASA/空军成本模型中实施(Smart, 2005)。这些贡献代表了当前成本分析的实践状况。Book(2006)提出了积极半方差的概念,作为需求方法的替代方案,并由Sandberg(2007)进一步提出。Hermann (personal communication, 2010)提出了一种新的方法,讨论了风险分配中的最优性概念,并提出了一个计算最优分配的单边时刻目标函数。洛克希德·马丁公司在20世纪90年代开发了一种较旧的方法,为所有工作分解结构元素分配相等的百分位数分配(Goldberg and Weber, 1998)。这种方法声称是最优的,Goldberg和Weber(1998)表明,在一个非常具体的假设下,这是正确的。除了Hermann的论文和Goldberg和Weber关于Lockheed Martin方法的报告外,成本风险分配通常与最优性无关。比例标准差法和需求法都不能保证分配方案是最优的,甚至不一定是理想的。事实上,风险度量和风险分配这两个主题要么被独立对待(Book, 2006),要么被视为一体(Sandberg, 2007)。无论如何,目前的情况是混乱的,两者之间没有明确的界限。在本文中,本文作者介绍了成本分析梯度风险分配的概念,该概念最近已在金融和保险领域使用(McNeil, Frey, & Embrechts, 2005)。梯度分配清楚地说明了风险度量和风险分配的概念是不同的,但又有内在的联系。这种方法被证明是一种分配的最佳方法,它使用了三个不同的论证——公理化的、博弈论的和经济的(在这种情况下,最优是指理想的或好的,而不是指特定目标函数的最小值或最大值)。还表明,梯度风险分配方法与用于度量风险的方法内在地联系在一起,这是一个迄今为止尚未在成本分析中考虑的概念。将梯度分配应用于五种风险度量,得到五种不同的分配方法,每种方法都是其衍生的风险度量的最优分配方法。讨论了比例标准差法和需求法在什么情况下最优的考虑,并论证了Hermann法与比例标准差法之间的联系。
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引用次数: 0
Engineering Systems: Best-in-Class/Worst-in-Class 工程系统:同类最佳/同类最差
Pub Date : 2014-05-04 DOI: 10.1080/1941658X.2014.922905
Donald M. Beckett
Measurement’s goal is to help assess performance—to determine which methods are productive or counterproductive. Metrics are tools used to identify and implement practices that lower costs, reduce time to market, and improve product quality. But process improvement is not accomplished through measurement or metrics alone. Rather, one must use the data to make conscious decisions that change the way business is done. In fact, one of best ways to make those decisions is by studying the characteristics of best- and worst-in-class software projects. Referencing Quantitative Software Management’s database of 10,000+ completed software projects, this article evaluates the common factors that define the most and least successful engineering projects—drawn from the database’s System Software, Scientific, Telecom, and Command and Control application domains. Presenting a thorough analysis of project staffing, effort, duration, cost, and quality data, this article gives project managers a solid, scientific framework for evaluating potential projects and identifying winning strategies.
度量的目标是帮助评估性能——确定哪些方法是有效的或适得其反的。量度是用来识别和实现降低成本、缩短上市时间和提高产品质量的实践的工具。但是过程改进不能仅仅通过度量或度量来完成。相反,人们必须利用这些数据做出有意识的决定,从而改变商业运作的方式。事实上,做出这些决定的最好方法之一就是研究同类中最好和最差的软件项目的特征。参考定量软件管理的10000多个已完成的软件项目的数据库,本文评估了定义最成功和最不成功的工程项目的共同因素,这些因素来自数据库的系统软件、科学、电信和命令与控制应用领域。通过对项目人员配置、工作量、持续时间、成本和质量数据的全面分析,本文为项目经理提供了一个可靠、科学的框架,用于评估潜在项目和确定制胜策略。
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引用次数: 0
Software Industry Goals for the Years 2014 through 2018 2014 - 2018年软件行业目标
Pub Date : 2014-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/1941658X.2014.890493
Capers Jones
This article discusses 20 quantitative targets for software engineering projects that are technically feasible to be achieved within a five year window. Some leading companies have already achieved many of these targets, but average and lagging companies have achieved only a few, if any. Software needs firm achievable goals expressed in quantitative fashion. For example the first goal is to remove 99.5% of bugs or defects before delivery rather than today’s average of below 90%. Inspections and static analysis prior to testing can achieve this goal for essentially every project.
本文讨论了软件工程项目的20个量化目标,这些目标在技术上是可行的,可以在5年内实现。一些领先的公司已经实现了其中的许多目标,但一般和落后的公司只实现了少数目标。软件需要以定量方式表达的可实现的目标。例如,第一个目标是在交付之前消除99.5%的错误或缺陷,而不是今天的平均水平低于90%。测试之前的检查和静态分析基本上可以为每个项目实现这一目标。
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引用次数: 2
Applications of a Parsimonious Model of Development Programs’ Costs and Schedules 开发计划成本和进度的简约模型的应用
Pub Date : 2014-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/1941658X.2014.890087
David W. Lee, Carol Dezwarte, Stephanie M. Sigalas-Markham, Jeremy M. Eckhause
A model of the cost and schedule of a development program, characterized by three non-dimensional parameters, gives means for estimating the cost and schedule impacts of constraining funding below planned levels, as well as for assessing the realism of the costs and schedules of planned programs. In contrast to models of the Norden-Rayleigh-Weibull class, the model explicitly considers specific components of cost, and captures the distinction between a development program’s value (i.e., the things delivered) and its cost (i.e., the money paid to acquire the value). Treating staff levels, staff productivity and cost, overhead, purchased material costs, and the burdens imposed by staff coordination and by allocating a program’s effort to individual workers or teams and collating the results, the model reflects effects of management actions to make programs optimal by such criteria as minimal cost, minimal time, or minimal cost subject to a maximum-time constraint.
一个开发项目的成本和进度模型,以三个非维度参数为特征,提供了估计成本和进度影响的方法,限制资金低于计划水平,以及评估计划项目的成本和进度的现实性。与Norden-Rayleigh-Weibull类模型相比,该模型明确地考虑了成本的特定组成部分,并捕获了开发计划的价值(例如,交付的东西)和成本(例如,为获得价值而支付的钱)之间的区别。处理员工水平、员工生产力和成本、间接费用、购买的材料成本,以及由员工协调所施加的负担,以及通过将计划的努力分配给单个工人或团队并整理结果,该模型反映了通过诸如最小成本、最小时间或最大时间约束下的最小成本等标准使计划达到最佳的管理行动的效果。
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引用次数: 0
Trade Space, Product Optimization, and Parametric Analysis 贸易空间、产品优化与参数分析
Pub Date : 2014-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/1941658X.2014.890086
D. Howarth
This article shows how to bound, build, and assemble trade spaces for product optimization. The advent of computerized tools that describe available trade spaces has changed not only the nature of optimized product design, but that of parametric cost studies as well. Because these tools allow broader analysis, engineers can produce many more potential designs. Those tools, explained in this article, allow parametricians to analyze trade spaces in a manner that allows them to determine the sets of product attributes that have the best chance for market success. However, rather than trailing such engineering studies, parametricians may be able to lead them. In the process, parametricians may be able to move their organizations toward more economically viable configurations, those that markets will more readily accept.
本文展示了如何绑定、构建和组装交易空间以实现产品优化。描述可用贸易空间的计算机化工具的出现不仅改变了优化产品设计的性质,也改变了参数化成本研究的性质。由于这些工具允许更广泛的分析,工程师可以产生更多潜在的设计。本文解释了这些工具,这些工具允许参数分析人员以一种允许他们确定最有可能获得市场成功的产品属性集的方式分析交易空间。然而,参数学家也许能够引领这些工程研究,而不是落后于这些工程研究。在这个过程中,参数化人员可能会将他们的组织推向更经济可行的配置,那些市场更容易接受的配置。
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引用次数: 2
COTECHMO: The Constructive Technology Development Cost Model COTECHMO:建设性技术开发成本模型
Pub Date : 2014-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/1941658X.2014.891085
Mark Jones, P. Webb, M. Summers, P. Baguley
A detailed analysis of the available literature and the aerospace manufacturing industry has identified a lack of cost estimation techniques to forecast advanced manufacturing technology development effort and hardware cost. To respond, this article presents two parametric ‘Constructive Technology Development Cost Models’ (COTECHMO). The COTECHMO Resources model is the first and is capable of forecasting aerospace advanced manufacturing technology development effort in person-hours. When statistically analyzed, this model had an outstanding R-squared value of 98% and a high F-value of 106.65, validating model significance. The general model accuracy was tested with 53% of the forecast data falling within 20% of the actual. The second, the COTECHMO Direct Cost model is capable of forecasting the development cost of the aerospace advanced manufacturing technology process hardware. This model had an inferior R-squared value of 76% and an F-value of 5.59, although each was still valid to determine model significance. However, the Direct Cost model accuracy exceeded the Resources model, with 93% of the forecast data falling within 20% of the actual. The article concludes with recommendations for future research, including suggestions for further enhancement of each model verification and validation, within and outside of the supporting organization.
对现有文献和航空航天制造业的详细分析表明,缺乏成本估算技术来预测先进制造技术的开发努力和硬件成本。为此,本文提出了两个参数化的“建设性技术开发成本模型”(COTECHMO)。COTECHMO资源模型是第一个能够以人小时为单位预测航空航天先进制造技术开发工作的模型。经统计分析,该模型具有显著的r平方值98%,f值高达106.65,验证了模型的显著性。一般模型的准确性进行了测试,有53%的预测数据落在实际的20%以内。第二,COTECHMO直接成本模型能够预测航空航天先进制造技术工艺硬件的开发成本。该模型的r平方值为76%,f值为5.59,但仍可用于确定模型显著性。然而,直接成本模型的准确性超过了资源模型,93%的预测数据落在实际数据的20%以内。文章最后给出了对未来研究的建议,包括在支持组织内部和外部进一步增强每个模型验证和确认的建议。
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引用次数: 2
Editorial Board EOV 编辑委员会EOV
Pub Date : 2013-07-01 DOI: 10.1080/1941658x.2013.865423
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引用次数: 0
Galaxy Charts: The 1,000-Light-Year View of the Data 星系图:1000光年的数据视图
Pub Date : 2013-07-01 DOI: 10.1080/1941658X.2013.843420
R. Nehring, Katharine Mann, Robert Jones
This article presents a new kind of chart, called a Galaxy chart, which combines the strengths of other chart types. A Galaxy chart displays an entire Cost Element Structure on a single sheet of paper, showing all of the elements, their relationships, and their costs in a visually appealing way. Each child cost element is “in orbit” around its parent, with its children “in orbit” around their parent. The size of each cost element is directly proportional to its magnitude. Galaxy charts provide many insights. For instance, a single Galaxy chart displays the cost element structure hierarchy, the most significant cost elements, the least significant cost elements, the descending order of cost elements, and cost elements of equal value. This article will give an overview of the Galaxy chart concept, explain how to construct one, and explain a few of the insights that are available from the display insights that are typically difficult to gain without using a Galaxy chart.
本文介绍了一种新的图表,称为银河图表,它结合了其他图表类型的优点。银河图表在一张纸上显示了整个成本元素结构,以一种视觉上吸引人的方式显示了所有元素、它们之间的关系和它们的成本。每个子成本元素都围绕其父元素“在轨道上”,其子元素也围绕其父元素“在轨道上”。每个成本要素的大小与其大小成正比。星系图提供了许多见解。例如,单个Galaxy图表显示了成本元素结构层次结构、最重要的成本元素、最不重要的成本元素、成本元素的降序以及相等值的成本元素。本文将概述Galaxy图表的概念,解释如何构建一个,并解释从显示视图中获得的一些见解,这些见解通常不使用Galaxy图表很难获得。
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引用次数: 0
Feasibility of Budget for Acquisition of Two Joint Support Ships 采购两艘联合支援舰预算的可行性
Pub Date : 2013-07-01 DOI: 10.1080/1941658X.2013.843423
E. Barkel, T. Yalkin
The mandate of the Parliamentary Budget Officer is to provide independent analysis to Parliament on the state of the nation's finances, the government's estimates, and trends in the Canadian economy, and, upon request from a committee or parliamentarian, to estimate the financial cost of any proposal for matters over which Parliament has jurisdiction. The PBO received requests from the Member from St John's East and the Member from Scarborough-Guildwood to undertake an independent cost assessment of the Joint Support Ship project. This report assesses the feasibility of replacing Canada's current Auxiliary Oiler Replenishment ships with two Joint Support Ships within the allocated funding envelope. The cost estimates and observations presented in this report represent a preliminary set of data for discussion and may change subject to the provision of detailed financial and non-financial data to the Parliamentary Budget Officer by the Department of National Defence, Public Works, and Government Services Canada, and the shipyards. The cost estimates included reflect a point-in-time set of observations based on limited and high-level data obtained from a variety of sources. These high-level cost estimates and observations are neither to be viewed as conclusions in relation to the policy merits of the legislation nor as a view to future costs.
议会预算官的职责是向议会提供关于国家财政状况、政府预算和加拿大经济趋势的独立分析,并应委员会或议员的要求,对议会管辖范围内的任何提案的财政成本进行估算。PBO收到了来自St John's East的成员和来自Scarborough-Guildwood的成员的请求,要求对联合支援船项目进行独立的成本评估。本报告评估了在分配的资金范围内用两艘联合支援船取代加拿大目前的辅助加油船的可行性。本报告中提出的成本估计和观察结果是供讨论的一组初步数据,可能会因加拿大国防、公共工程和政府服务部以及造船厂向议会预算官员提供详细的财务和非财务数据而发生变化。所列费用概算反映了根据从各种来源获得的有限和高水平数据所作的一组时间点观察结果。这些高水平的费用估计和意见既不应被视为关于立法的政策价值的结论,也不应被视为对未来费用的看法。
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引用次数: 1
期刊
Journal of Cost Analysis and Parametrics
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