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Application of a Log Likelihood Object In GARCH with T-distributed errors and EGARCH With Generalised Error Distribution Model of the Spot AUD/USD Exchange Rate Volatility. 对数似然对象在t分布误差GARCH和广义误差分布模型EGARCH中的应用
Pub Date : 2018-09-21 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3253231
Michel Guirguis
In this article, we have tested the volatility of the returns of the spot exchange rate of AUD/USD for changing conditional variances by using a log likelihood model. Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic models, (GARCH) with t-distributed errors, and exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic model, (EGARCH) with generalised error distribution take into account the non-linearity that arises in the financial time series. The aim is to compare and select the maximum value of the log likelihood estimation of the AUD/USD spot exchange rate. The log likelihood model take into account autoregressive, (AR), moving average, (MA), and monthly seasonal moving average, (SMA) factors that could better explain volatility clusters. We have selected the model with the best forecasting ability in terms of the lowest value of the Akaike information criterion, the Schwarz criterion, the Hannan – Quinn criterion. The best model will help the arbitrageurs to better craft their investment strategy in terms of holding, buying or selling portfolios of foreign currencies. The software that we have used is EViews 6. We have concluded that the best fit model is the GRACH model with a t-distribution, as it has the maximum log likelihood estimation of -500.354. The average log likelihood is -1.81. The Akaike information criterion, the Schwarz criterion and the Hannan – Quinn criterion have the lowest error estimates. Their values are 3.60, 3.56 and 3.59 respectively. In terms of gradients at the estimated parameters, we have found that there are outlier values and significant fluctuations at the various observations of the coefficients vectors, C(1), C(2), and C(3) of the gradients. Finally, the analytic derivatives were calculated based on the specified values. The real and minimum step sizes are identical for all coefficients vectors and very close to zero. We have used one-sided numeric derivative. The data that we have used are monthly returns starting from 01/01/1990 to 01/01/2013, which total to 276 observations. The total dataset includes 277 observations. The data was obtained from the Federal Reserve Statistical Release Department and the symbol of the series is H.10.
在本文中,我们使用对数似然模型测试了澳元/美元即期汇率在条件方差变化时收益的波动性。具有t分布误差的广义自回归条件异方差模型(GARCH)和具有广义误差分布的指数广义自回归条件异方差模型(EGARCH)考虑了金融时间序列中出现的非线性。目的是比较和选择澳元/美元即期汇率的对数似然估计的最大值。对数似然模型考虑了自回归(AR)、移动平均(MA)和月度季节性移动平均(SMA)等因素,这些因素可以更好地解释波动性集群。我们从Akaike信息准则、Schwarz准则、Hannan - Quinn准则的最低值三个方面选择了预测能力最好的模型。最好的模型将帮助套利者在持有、买入或卖出外汇投资组合方面更好地制定投资策略。我们使用的软件是EViews 6。我们得出结论,最佳拟合模型是具有t分布的GRACH模型,因为它的最大对数似然估计为-500.354。平均对数似然是-1.81。Akaike信息准则、Schwarz准则和Hannan - Quinn准则的误差估计最小。其值分别为3.60、3.56和3.59。在估计参数处的梯度方面,我们发现在梯度的系数向量C(1)、C(2)和C(3)的不同观测值处存在异常值和显著波动。最后,根据规定值计算解析导数。对于所有系数向量,实步长和最小步长是相同的,并且非常接近于零。我们用的是单侧数值导数。我们使用的数据是从1990年1月1日到2013年1月1日的月回报,总共有276个观测值。整个数据集包括277个观测值。数据来自美国联邦储备委员会统计发布部门,该系列的符号为H.10。
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引用次数: 0
Chinese Exports and Non-Tariff Measures: Testing for Heterogeneous Effects at the Product Level 中国出口与非关税措施:产品层面异质性效应检验
Pub Date : 2018-09-11 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3247687
Jacopo Timini, M. Conesa
Concerns about a possible turn of the global trade policy agenda are on the rise. Indeed, even if tariffs are at a historically low levels, non-tariff measures (NTMs) play an important – and growing – role in global trade policy. In this paper, using a recently released database on NTMs (UNCTAD), and relying on a gravity model, we focus on Chinese exports with two aims in mind: the first is to test for possible heterogeneous effects of different type of NTMs. The second is to verify empirically whether NTMs have larger negative effects for specific set of goods, i.e. final goods. We find that 1) technical NTMs tend to have positive effects on trade flows, whereas non-technical NTMs do not have clear effects at the aggregate level and 2) NTMs have heterogeneous effects at the product level: in the case of final goods, non-technical NTMs have negative and significant effects.
对全球贸易政策议程可能发生转变的担忧正在加剧。事实上,即使关税处于历史最低水平,非关税措施(ntm)在全球贸易政策中也发挥着重要且日益重要的作用。在本文中,我们使用了最近发布的一个关于非关税机制的数据库(UNCTAD),并依赖于一个引力模型,将重点放在中国出口上,目的有两个:第一是测试不同类型非关税机制可能产生的异质性效应。第二是实证验证非关税措施是否对特定商品(即最终商品)有更大的负面影响。研究发现:1)技术性非关税措施对贸易流动具有正向影响,而非技术非关税措施在总量层面的影响不明显;2)非技术非关税措施在产品层面的影响存在异质性:在最终产品层面,非技术非关税措施具有显著的负向影响。
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引用次数: 68
Real Exchange Rate Dynamics: Relative Importance of Taylor‐Rule Fundamentals, Monetary Policy Shocks, and Risk‐Premium Shocks 实际汇率动态:泰勒规则基本原理、货币政策冲击和风险溢价冲击的相对重要性
Pub Date : 2018-09-03 DOI: 10.1111/roie.12372
Chang‐Jin Kim, Cheolbeom Park
We first show that the solution to the real exchange rate under the Taylor rule with interest rate smoothing can have two alternative representations—one based on a first‐order difference equation and the other based on a second‐order difference equation. Then, by comparing error terms from these two alternative representations and analyzing their second moments, we evaluate the relative importance of Taylor‐rule fundamentals, monetary policy shocks, and risk‐premium shocks in the dynamics of the real exchange rate. Empirical results suggest that the risk‐premium shock is the largest contributor to real exchange rate movements for all the countries examined, with the Taylor‐rule fundamentals and monetary policy shocks playing a limited role. These results are robust to various alternative sets of parameter values considered for the Taylor rule with interest rate smoothing.
我们首先证明了具有利率平滑的Taylor规则下实际汇率的解可以有两种可选的表示-一种基于一阶差分方程,另一种基于二阶差分方程。然后,通过比较这两种替代表示的误差项并分析它们的第二时刻,我们评估了泰勒规则基本原则、货币政策冲击和风险溢价冲击在实际汇率动态中的相对重要性。实证结果表明,风险溢价冲击是所有被调查国家实际汇率变动的最大因素,而泰勒规则基本原理和货币政策冲击的作用有限。这些结果对于考虑具有利率平滑的泰勒规则的各种备选参数值集具有鲁棒性。
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引用次数: 2
Estimating the Impact of Country‐Level Policy Restrictions on Services Trade 估计国家层面的政策限制对服务贸易的影响
Pub Date : 2018-09-01 DOI: 10.1111/roie.12340
A. Gervais
Standard techniques used to estimate gravity equations, rely on bilateral variation to identify the effect of trade barriers on bilateral trade flows. In this paper, I develop a method that estimates the effects of country‐level variables on trade between countries in the presence of firm heterogeneity and country selection into trade, a natural extension of existing empirical models of international trade. I implement the method in services data, where available measures of trade policy provide information on the average level of regulations restricting entry into a country. The results suggest that policy barriers are important determinants of services trade flows.
用于估计重力方程的标准技术依赖于双边变化来确定贸易壁垒对双边贸易流动的影响。在本文中,我开发了一种方法,在企业异质性和国家选择贸易存在的情况下,估计国家层面变量对国家间贸易的影响,这是现有国际贸易经验模型的自然延伸。我在服务业数据中实施了这种方法,在这些数据中,现有的贸易政策措施提供了有关限制进入一个国家的法规平均水平的信息。结果表明,政策壁垒是服务贸易流动的重要决定因素。
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引用次数: 9
Exchange Rate Jumps and Exports: Evidence from China 汇率跳跃与出口:来自中国的证据
Pub Date : 2018-09-01 DOI: 10.1111/twec.12594
Guangzhong Li, Jiefen Li, Jiaqing Zhu
We apply the autoregressive conditional jump intensity (ARJI) model to monthly exchange rate returns of China against 81 countries and investigate the impact of exchange rate volatility on exports over the period of 1995–2004. We decompose bilateral exchange rate volatility into continuous and discrete components and find that only the discrete part of exchange rate volatility, that is, the exchange rate jumps, has a significantly negative effect on exports, which to some extent reconciles the old yet unsettled debate in previous literature on the role of exchange rate volatility in international trade. There is also some evidence suggesting that the development of domestic financial market will boost international trade, but it does not help attenuate the negative effect of bilateral exchange rate jump risk on exports.
本文运用自回归条件跳跃强度(ARJI)模型对中国相对于81个国家的月度汇率收益率进行了分析,研究了1995-2004年期间汇率波动对出口的影响。我们将双边汇率波动分解为连续和离散两部分,发现只有汇率波动的离散部分即汇率跳升对出口有显著的负向影响,这在一定程度上调和了以往文献中关于汇率波动对国际贸易作用的争论。也有一些证据表明,国内金融市场的发展会促进国际贸易,但无助于减弱双边汇率跳升风险对出口的负面影响。
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引用次数: 2
An Investigation into the Dependence Structure of Major Cryptocurrencies 主要加密货币的依赖结构研究
Pub Date : 2018-08-30 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3241216
Kunal Saha
This paper attempts to examine the dependence structure of four major cryptocurrencies chosen by current market capitalisation. It is a well known fact that there is huge volatility in the prices of these cryptocurrencies. The Vine Copula model is used to get some insights about the dependence structure in these asset prices. This is done using daily closing price from August 2015 to May 2018. This information can be used to calculate risk based metrics such as expected shortfall of a portfolio of these currencies. This analysis becomes more important as complex financial instruments (e.g. indices) based on these currencies are being introduced.
本文试图研究当前市值选择的四种主要加密货币的依赖结构。众所周知,这些加密货币的价格波动很大。使用Vine Copula模型来了解这些资产价格的依赖结构。这是使用2015年8月至2018年5月的每日收盘价完成的。这些信息可用于计算基于风险的指标,例如这些货币的投资组合的预期缺口。随着基于这些货币的复杂金融工具(如指数)的引入,这种分析变得更加重要。
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引用次数: 2
The PRC’s Long-Run Growth through the Lens of the Export-Led Growth Model 从出口导向型增长模式看中国的长期增长
Pub Date : 2018-08-28 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3339116
J. Felipe, Matteo Lanzafame
The People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) remarkable growth performance over the last 3 decades has been associated to very robust export growth, so much so that many refer to it as a clear example of export-led growth (ELG). Using the concept of the balance-of-payments equilibrium (BOPE) growth rate, which provides a framework to test the ELG hypothesis, we show that the PRC’s actual long-run growth is well approximated by its BOPE growth rate. This growth rate is given by the ratio of the growth rate of exports to the income elasticity of imports. We estimate the latter using the Kalman filter, which allows us to obtain a time-varying estimate of the PRC’s BOPE growth rate. We find that the average value of the PRC’s BOPE growth rate during 1981–2016 was 11%, but it varied significantly over time and declined notably after 2007. Today, it is estimated at a much lower 5.9%. We then discuss the determinants of the PRC’s BOPE growth rate and of the income elasticity of imports, with the help of the Bayesian model averaging technique. The analysis highlights the role of the composition of aggregate demand as the main driving force, both for its direct effects on the income elasticity of imports, and for the indirect effects on export growth via capital accumulation, in particular fixed asset investment. Our analysis has important implications to understand the PRC’s transition to a “New Normal” of a lower growth rate.
过去30年,中华人民共和国(PRC)的显著增长表现与非常强劲的出口增长有关,以至于许多人将其称为出口导向型增长(ELG)的一个明显例子。使用国际收支平衡(hope)增长率的概念,这为检验ELG假设提供了一个框架,我们表明中国的实际长期增长率与hope增长率很接近。这个增长率由出口增长率与进口收入弹性之比给出。我们使用卡尔曼滤波器估计后者,这使我们能够获得中国希望增长率的时变估计。我们发现,1981-2016年中国的hope增长率平均值为11%,但随时间变化显著,2007年之后显著下降。如今,这一比例估计为5.9%,要低得多。然后,我们在贝叶斯模型平均技术的帮助下讨论了中国的希望增长率和进口收入弹性的决定因素。该分析强调了总需求构成作为主要驱动力的作用,因为它对进口收入弹性的直接影响,以及通过资本积累(特别是固定资产投资)对出口增长的间接影响。我们的分析对于理解中国向低增长率的“新常态”过渡具有重要意义。
{"title":"The PRC’s Long-Run Growth through the Lens of the Export-Led Growth Model","authors":"J. Felipe, Matteo Lanzafame","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3339116","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3339116","url":null,"abstract":"The People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) remarkable growth performance over the last 3 decades has been associated to very robust export growth, so much so that many refer to it as a clear example of export-led growth (ELG). Using the concept of the balance-of-payments equilibrium (BOPE) growth rate, which provides a framework to test the ELG hypothesis, we show that the PRC’s actual long-run growth is well approximated by its BOPE growth rate. This growth rate is given by the ratio of the growth rate of exports to the income elasticity of imports. We estimate the latter using the Kalman filter, which allows us to obtain a time-varying estimate of the PRC’s BOPE growth rate. We find that the average value of the PRC’s BOPE growth rate during 1981–2016 was 11%, but it varied significantly over time and declined notably after 2007. Today, it is estimated at a much lower 5.9%. We then discuss the determinants of the PRC’s BOPE growth rate and of the income elasticity of imports, with the help of the Bayesian model averaging technique. The analysis highlights the role of the composition of aggregate demand as the main driving force, both for its direct effects on the income elasticity of imports, and for the indirect effects on export growth via capital accumulation, in particular fixed asset investment. Our analysis has important implications to understand the PRC’s transition to a “New Normal” of a lower growth rate.","PeriodicalId":391101,"journal":{"name":"Econometric Modeling: International Economics eJournal","volume":"38 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-08-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125546455","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Currency Risk Factors in a Recursive Multi-Country Economy 递归多国经济中的货币风险因素
Pub Date : 2018-08-25 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2542182
R. Colacito, M. Croce, Federico Gavazzoni, Robert Ready
Focusing on the ten countries with the most-traded currencies, we provide novel empirical evidence about the existence of significant heterogenous exposure to global growth news shocks. We incorporate this empirical fact in a frictionless risk-sharing model with recursive preferences, multiple countries, and multiple consumption goods whose supply is subject to both global and local short- and long-run shocks. Since news shocks are priced, heterogenous exposure to global long-run growth shocks results in both a relevant reallocation of international resources and currency adjustments. Our unified framework replicates the properties of the HML-FX and HML-NFA carry trade strategies studied by Lustig et al. (2011) and Della Corte et al. (2013).
我们以10个货币交易量最大的国家为研究对象,提供了新的实证证据,证明它们在全球增长新闻冲击下存在显著的异质性风险敞口。我们将这一经验事实纳入一个无摩擦风险分担模型,该模型具有递归偏好、多个国家和多种消费品,其供应受到全球和当地短期和长期冲击的影响。由于新闻冲击是定价的,对全球长期增长冲击的异质敞口导致国际资源的相关重新配置和货币调整。我们的统一框架复制了Lustig等人(2011)和Della Corte等人(2013)研究的HML-FX和HML-NFA套利交易策略的特性。
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引用次数: 22
Trade Wars: Are Good and Easy to Win? 贸易战:好而且容易赢吗?
Pub Date : 2018-08-13 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3230668
Karen Jackson, Oleksandr Shepotylo
This paper explores the welfare implications of the current US protectionist non-cooperative trade policy and potential responses by the EU and China. Using a structural gravity approach, we evaluate three retaliatory scenarios. Our estimates suggest that the impact of this trade war on the US is negative in all policy scenarios, ranging from 0.25 to 1.4 percent of GDP, with the lower range of welfare losses when the EU or/and China do not retaliate. Therefore, it is a dominant strategy for both China and the EU to keep tariffs against US goods at current levels.
本文探讨了当前美国保护主义非合作贸易政策的福利含义以及欧盟和中国的潜在反应。使用结构重力方法,我们评估了三种报复情景。我们的估计表明,在所有政策情景下,这场贸易战对美国的影响都是负面的,占GDP的比例从0.25%到1.4%不等,当欧盟或/和中国不采取报复措施时,福利损失的范围更小。因此,对中国和欧盟来说,将对美国商品的关税维持在当前水平是一项主导战略。
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引用次数: 14
Impact of Trade Imbalances on Domestic Trade Policy: Does Multilateral Trade Policy Matter? 贸易不平衡对国内贸易政策的影响:多边贸易政策重要吗?
Pub Date : 2018-08-10 DOI: 10.1111/rode.12527
S. Gnangnon
It has been well demonstrated in the empirical literature that trade policy liberalization influences trade performance. However, little is known about how trade policy reacts to trade imbalances. This article aims to address this question by investigating the impact of trade imbalances on domestic trade policy liberalization, including in the context of multilateral trade policy liberalization. This analysis is particularly relevant because countries are currently having appetite for trade protectionist measures, which could ultimately undermine multilateral trade liberalization, and hurt domestic economies and the world economy. The analysis has been conducted on a panel dataset of 166 countries over the period 1998 to 2015. The take home message of the analysis is twofold: first, an improvement in trade balance induces greater domestic trade policy liberalization. However, this impact depends on countries’ development level, as the magnitude of this positive impact is higher, the higher the countries’ level of development. Second, an improvement in trade balance leads to greater domestic trade policy liberalization only if multilateral trade policy liberalization reaches a certain level.
实证文献已经很好地证明了贸易政策自由化对贸易绩效的影响。然而,人们对贸易政策如何应对贸易失衡知之甚少。本文旨在通过调查贸易不平衡对国内贸易政策自由化的影响来解决这个问题,包括在多边贸易政策自由化的背景下。这一分析尤其重要,因为各国目前对贸易保护主义措施有兴趣,这可能最终破坏多边贸易自由化,损害国内经济和世界经济。该分析是在1998年至2015年期间对166个国家的面板数据集进行的。这一分析传达了两个重要信息:首先,贸易平衡的改善会促使国内贸易政策进一步自由化。然而,这种影响取决于各国的发展水平,因为这种积极影响的幅度越大,国家的发展水平越高。第二,只有当多边贸易政策自由化达到一定程度时,贸易平衡的改善才会导致国内贸易政策自由化程度的提高。
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引用次数: 7
期刊
Econometric Modeling: International Economics eJournal
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