Pub Date : 2019-12-01DOI: 10.5089/9781513519876.001
Parisa Kamali
In many countries, a sizable share of international trade is carried out by intermediaries. While large firms tend to export to foreign markets directly, smaller firms typically export via intermediaries (indirect exporting). I document a set of facts that characterize the dynamic nature of indirect exporting using firm-level data from Vietnam and develop a dynamic trade model with both direct and indirect exporting modes and customer accumulation. The model is calibrated to match the dynamic moments of the data. The calibration yields fixed costs of indirect exporting that are less than a third of those of direct exporting, the variable costs of indirect exporting are twice higher, and demand for the indirectly exported products grows more slowly. Decomposing the gains from indirect and direct exporting, I find that 18 percent of the gains from trade in Vietnam are generated by indirect exporters. Finally, I demonstrate that a dynamic model that excludes the indirect exporting channel will overstate the welfare gains associated with trade liberalization by a factor of two.
{"title":"Exporting Through Intermediaries: Impact on Export Dynamics and Welfare","authors":"Parisa Kamali","doi":"10.5089/9781513519876.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513519876.001","url":null,"abstract":"In many countries, a sizable share of international trade is carried out by intermediaries. While large firms tend to export to foreign markets directly, smaller firms typically export via intermediaries (indirect exporting). I document a set of facts that characterize the dynamic nature of indirect exporting using firm-level data from Vietnam and develop a dynamic trade model with both direct and indirect exporting modes and customer accumulation. The model is calibrated to match the dynamic moments of the data. The calibration yields fixed costs of indirect exporting that are less than a third of those of direct exporting, the variable costs of indirect exporting are twice higher, and demand for the indirectly exported products grows more slowly. Decomposing the gains from indirect and direct exporting, I find that 18 percent of the gains from trade in Vietnam are generated by indirect exporters. Finally, I demonstrate that a dynamic model that excludes the indirect exporting channel will overstate the welfare gains associated with trade liberalization by a factor of two.","PeriodicalId":391101,"journal":{"name":"Econometric Modeling: International Economics eJournal","volume":"32 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133553530","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We estimate the extent to which firms responded to tariff reductions associated with China's WTO entry by altering labour's share of value. Firm‐level regressions indicate that firms in industries subject to tariff cuts raised labour's share relative to economy‐wide trends, both through input choices and rent sharing. Our estimates suggest that, on average, an industry that experienced no reductions in output or input tariffs would have a 15.7% lower labour share of value in 2007 than it actually did, assuming the same economy‐wide trends. There is significant variation across firms: the impact attenuates with geographic remoteness and union presence and strengthens with foreign ownership.
{"title":"Trade Liberalisation and Labour Shares in China","authors":"Fariha Kamal, Mary E. Lovely, Devashish Mitra","doi":"10.1111/twec.12857","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.12857","url":null,"abstract":"We estimate the extent to which firms responded to tariff reductions associated with China's WTO entry by altering labour's share of value. Firm‐level regressions indicate that firms in industries subject to tariff cuts raised labour's share relative to economy‐wide trends, both through input choices and rent sharing. Our estimates suggest that, on average, an industry that experienced no reductions in output or input tariffs would have a 15.7% lower labour share of value in 2007 than it actually did, assuming the same economy‐wide trends. There is significant variation across firms: the impact attenuates with geographic remoteness and union presence and strengthens with foreign ownership.","PeriodicalId":391101,"journal":{"name":"Econometric Modeling: International Economics eJournal","volume":"20 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114769531","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Using data from 2018, a number of studies have found that recent U.S tariffs have been passed on entirely to U.S. importers and consumers. These results are surprising given that trade theory has long stressed that tariffs applied by a large country should drive down foreign prices. Using another year of data including significant escalations in the trade war, we find that U.S. tariffs continue to be almost entirely borne by U.S. firms and consumers. We show that the response of import values to the tariffs increases in absolute magnitude over time, consistent with the idea that it takes time for firms to reorganize supply chains. We find heterogeneity in the responses of some sectors, such as steel, where tariffs have caused foreign exporters to drop their prices substantially, enabling them to export relatively more than in sectors where tariff passthrough was complete.
{"title":"Who&Apos;S Paying for the Us Tariffs? A Longer-Term Perspective","authors":"S. Redding, M. Amiti, David E. Weinstein","doi":"10.3386/w26610","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w26610","url":null,"abstract":"Using data from 2018, a number of studies have found that recent U.S tariffs have been passed on entirely to U.S. importers and consumers. These results are surprising given that trade theory has long stressed that tariffs applied by a large country should drive down foreign prices. Using another year of data including significant escalations in the trade war, we find that U.S. tariffs continue to be almost entirely borne by U.S. firms and consumers. We show that the response of import values to the tariffs increases in absolute magnitude over time, consistent with the idea that it takes time for firms to reorganize supply chains. We find heterogeneity in the responses of some sectors, such as steel, where tariffs have caused foreign exporters to drop their prices substantially, enabling them to export relatively more than in sectors where tariff passthrough was complete.","PeriodicalId":391101,"journal":{"name":"Econometric Modeling: International Economics eJournal","volume":"216 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121651816","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The unemployment inflation trade-off can be interpreted as a proposition concerning the response of these two variables to aggregate demand shocks. In this paper we study the possible presence of the trade-off in the Euro Area and in a wide group of Euroarea countries in the last 20 years, i.e. since the start of EMU. We use the structural VAR methodology that allows the separation between supply and demand shocks. Our main finding is that the existence of a trade-off is largely confirmed both at the Euro Area and at the national level. Nevertheless, the size of the trade-off, measured at different horizons,shows some heterogeneity among countries. No less important, when we augment the VAR model by introducing monetary policy in the context of an open economy, we find that monetary policy shocks push inflation and unemployment in opposite directions in the Currency Area. Another interesting result concerns the evidence of a relatively flat relation between unemployment and inflation, conditionally to monetary policy shocks.
{"title":"Is the Unemployment–Inflation Trade‐Off Still Alive in the Euro Area and its Member Countries? It Seems so","authors":"Antonio Ribba","doi":"10.1111/twec.13004","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.13004","url":null,"abstract":"The unemployment inflation trade-off can be interpreted as a proposition concerning the response of these two variables to aggregate demand shocks. In this paper we study the possible presence of the trade-off in the Euro Area and in a wide group of Euroarea countries in the last 20 years, i.e. since the start of EMU. We use the structural VAR methodology that allows the separation between supply and demand shocks. Our main finding is that the existence of a trade-off is largely confirmed both at the Euro Area and at the national level. Nevertheless, the size of the trade-off, measured at different horizons,shows some heterogeneity among countries. No less important, when we augment the VAR model by introducing monetary policy in the context of an open economy, we find that monetary policy shocks push inflation and unemployment in opposite directions in the Currency Area. Another interesting result concerns the evidence of a relatively flat relation between unemployment and inflation, conditionally to monetary policy shocks.","PeriodicalId":391101,"journal":{"name":"Econometric Modeling: International Economics eJournal","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129593046","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We use over 250 years of conflict and market integration data to provide the first evidence that Atlantic trade contributed to Europe's pacification between 1640 and 1896. While the decline in conflict in Europe during this period has been well documented, the role of Atlantic trade has not been previously explored due to a lack of historical trade data. We overcome this constraint by using wheat prices to calculate time-varying measures of market integration between Europe and the New World, which we use as a proxy for Atlantic trade. To identify the causal effects of Atlantic trade, we exploit exogenous changes in wind patterns and tropical cyclone activity over the Atlantic Ocean to instrument trade. Our results suggest that the growth in Atlantic trade between the mid-17th to the early 19th century lowered the probability of intra-European conflict onset by 14.90 percent. We find empirical support for two channels driving our results: first, Atlantic trade led to an increase in real wages and a reduction in both army and navy sizes in Europe. Second, we show that the possibility of forgone Atlantic trade acted as a deterrent to conflict.
{"title":"Atlantic Trade and the Decline of Conflict in Europe","authors":"Reshad N. Ahsan, Laura Panza, Yong Song","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3503195","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3503195","url":null,"abstract":"We use over 250 years of conflict and market integration data to provide the first evidence that Atlantic trade contributed to Europe's pacification between 1640 and 1896. While the decline in conflict in Europe during this period has been well documented, the role of Atlantic trade has not been previously explored due to a lack of historical trade data. We overcome this constraint by using wheat prices to calculate time-varying measures of market integration between Europe and the New World, which we use as a proxy for Atlantic trade. To identify the causal effects of Atlantic trade, we exploit exogenous changes in wind patterns and tropical cyclone activity over the Atlantic Ocean to instrument trade. Our results suggest that the growth in Atlantic trade between the mid-17th to the early 19th century lowered the probability of intra-European conflict onset by 14.90 percent. We find empirical support for two channels driving our results: first, Atlantic trade led to an increase in real wages and a reduction in both army and navy sizes in Europe. Second, we show that the possibility of forgone Atlantic trade acted as a deterrent to conflict.","PeriodicalId":391101,"journal":{"name":"Econometric Modeling: International Economics eJournal","volume":"57 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121446601","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We empirically investigate the relationship between a country’s economic complexity and the diversity in the birthplaces of its immigrants. Our cross-country analysis suggests that birthplace diversity is strongly and positively associated with economic complexity. This holds particularly for diversity among highly educated migrants and for countries at intermediate levels of economic complexity. The results are robust to accounting for previous trends in birthplace diversity as well as to using alternatives diversity measures. We address endogeneity concerns by instrumenting diversity through predicted stocks from a pseudo-gravity model as well as from a standard shift-share approach. Finally, we provide evidence suggesting that birthplace diversity boosts economic complexity by increasing the diversification of the host country’s export basket.
{"title":"Does Birthplace Diversity Affect Economic Complexity? Cross-Country Evidence","authors":"Dany Bahar, Hillel Rapoport, Riccardo Turati","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3562868","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3562868","url":null,"abstract":"We empirically investigate the relationship between a country’s economic complexity and the diversity in the birthplaces of its immigrants. Our cross-country analysis suggests that birthplace diversity is strongly and positively associated with economic complexity. This holds particularly for diversity among highly educated migrants and for countries at intermediate levels of economic complexity. The results are robust to accounting for previous trends in birthplace diversity as well as to using alternatives diversity measures. We address endogeneity concerns by instrumenting diversity through predicted stocks from a pseudo-gravity model as well as from a standard shift-share approach. Finally, we provide evidence suggesting that birthplace diversity boosts economic complexity by increasing the diversification of the host country’s export basket.","PeriodicalId":391101,"journal":{"name":"Econometric Modeling: International Economics eJournal","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-11-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130923265","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Suresh Kumar Oad Rajput, Namarta Kumari Bajaj, Tariq Aziz Siyal
This study seeks to examine the hidden-cointegration among Geopolitical Risk (GPR) and foreign remittances. The suitable models for this study are Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model to find the nature of impact (symmetric or asymmetric), and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model to examine the volatility of foreign remittances using data for BRIC economies. The findings from NARDL suggests that in short-run geopolitical risk is asymmetric to foreign remittances in BRIC economies. Whereas, in long-run geopolitical risk is asymmetric to foreign remittances in the case of Brazil, Russia and India. We find volatility in GPR transmits to volatility in foreign remittances in the case of Brazil, Russia, and India. Remittances in China are found to be least volatile during geopolitical risk. The policymakers, migrants, and recipients should consider the asymmetric and volatile nature of geopolitical risk while making decisions about policies and transfer of remittances respectively.
{"title":"Impact of Geopolitical Risk on Foreign Remittances","authors":"Suresh Kumar Oad Rajput, Namarta Kumari Bajaj, Tariq Aziz Siyal","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3491587","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3491587","url":null,"abstract":"This study seeks to examine the hidden-cointegration among Geopolitical Risk (GPR) and foreign remittances. The suitable models for this study are Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model to find the nature of impact (symmetric or asymmetric), and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model to examine the volatility of foreign remittances using data for BRIC economies. The findings from NARDL suggests that in short-run geopolitical risk is asymmetric to foreign remittances in BRIC economies. Whereas, in long-run geopolitical risk is asymmetric to foreign remittances in the case of Brazil, Russia and India. We find volatility in GPR transmits to volatility in foreign remittances in the case of Brazil, Russia, and India. Remittances in China are found to be least volatile during geopolitical risk. The policymakers, migrants, and recipients should consider the asymmetric and volatile nature of geopolitical risk while making decisions about policies and transfer of remittances respectively.","PeriodicalId":391101,"journal":{"name":"Econometric Modeling: International Economics eJournal","volume":"16 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-11-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133270534","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper develops a theoretical framework to infer the nature of fixed costs from the relationship between entry patterns in international markets and destination market size. If fixed costs are at the firm level, firms take advantage of an intrafirm spillover by expanding firm-level product range (scope). Few firms enter with many products and dominate international trade. If fixed costs are at the product level, an interfirm spillover reduces the fixed costs to export for all firms producing the product. Using cross-country data on firm and product, I find empirical evidence consistent with product-level costs. More firms than products enter in larger markets, offering their consumers lower prices and a greater variety of goods within the product category.
{"title":"Market Size and Entry in International Trade: Product Versus Firm Fixed Costs","authors":"Walter Steingress","doi":"10.1111/roie.12427","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roie.12427","url":null,"abstract":"This paper develops a theoretical framework to infer the nature of fixed costs from the relationship between entry patterns in international markets and destination market size. If fixed costs are at the firm level, firms take advantage of an intrafirm spillover by expanding firm-level product range (scope). Few firms enter with many products and dominate international trade. If fixed costs are at the product level, an interfirm spillover reduces the fixed costs to export for all firms producing the product. Using cross-country data on firm and product, I find empirical evidence consistent with product-level costs. More firms than products enter in larger markets, offering their consumers lower prices and a greater variety of goods within the product category.","PeriodicalId":391101,"journal":{"name":"Econometric Modeling: International Economics eJournal","volume":"26 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128110283","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The age distribution evolves asymmetrically across countries, inuflencing relative saving rates and labor supply. Using a dynamic, multicountry trade model I quantify how demographic changes affected trade imbalances across 28 countries since 1970. Counterfactually holding demographics constant reduces net exports in emerging economies that experienced rising working age shares, and boosts them in advanced economies that experienced flatter, or declining, working age shares. This helps alleviate the allocation puzzle. On average, a one percentage point increase in a country's working age share, relative to the world, increased its ratio of net exports to GDP by one-third of a percentage point.
{"title":"Demographics and the Evolution of Trade Imbalances","authors":"Michael J. Sposi","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3466315","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3466315","url":null,"abstract":"The age distribution evolves asymmetrically across countries, inuflencing relative saving rates and labor supply. Using a dynamic, multicountry trade model I quantify how demographic changes affected trade imbalances across 28 countries since 1970. Counterfactually holding demographics constant reduces net exports in emerging economies that experienced rising working age shares, and boosts them in advanced economies that experienced flatter, or declining, working age shares. This helps alleviate the allocation puzzle. On average, a one percentage point increase in a country's working age share, relative to the world, increased its ratio of net exports to GDP by one-third of a percentage point.","PeriodicalId":391101,"journal":{"name":"Econometric Modeling: International Economics eJournal","volume":"138 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-10-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127378225","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Arguably, leveraging on the intraregional market is important for a commodity like palm oil that has been constantly facing challenges to sustain global demand in extra-regional markets. The paper therefore compares intraregional export potentials for palm oil in two regions that are at the frontier for palm oil expansion, Southeast Asia and Latin America. The paper employs a stochastic frontier gravity model to estimate intraregional export performance against the maximum possible level of potential export over the 1990 to 2016 period. Though intraregional exports of palm oil and palm-based products are more intensive in Latin America relative to Southeast Asia, the results indicate large untapped export potentials in both regions due to non-tariff measures and ‘behind the border’ factors. The evidence further suggests that this export potential limiting factors have increased over time. An intraregional focus for this commodity is therefore justified on grounds that there is tremendous scope for export expansion. However, to facilitate intraregional exports, the regulations should be streamlined within the regions.
{"title":"Intraregional Trade Flows and Trade Efficiency in Palm Oil and Palm-Based Products: Southeast Asia and Latin America Regions Compared","authors":"E. Devadason, Shujaat Mubarik","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3460149","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3460149","url":null,"abstract":"Arguably, leveraging on the intraregional market is important for a commodity like palm oil that has been constantly facing challenges to sustain global demand in extra-regional markets. The paper therefore compares intraregional export potentials for palm oil in two regions that are at the frontier for palm oil expansion, Southeast Asia and Latin America. The paper employs a stochastic frontier gravity model to estimate intraregional export performance against the maximum possible level of potential export over the 1990 to 2016 period. Though intraregional exports of palm oil and palm-based products are more intensive in Latin America relative to Southeast Asia, the results indicate large untapped export potentials in both regions due to non-tariff measures and ‘behind the border’ factors. The evidence further suggests that this export potential limiting factors have increased over time. An intraregional focus for this commodity is therefore justified on grounds that there is tremendous scope for export expansion. However, to facilitate intraregional exports, the regulations should be streamlined within the regions.","PeriodicalId":391101,"journal":{"name":"Econometric Modeling: International Economics eJournal","volume":"80 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-09-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124088252","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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