Pub Date : 2023-10-23DOI: 10.1007/s12197-023-09646-7
Jörg Döpke, Tim Köhler, Lars Tegtmeier
Abstract ‘Fantasy Sports’ - an internet-based game in which participants chose virtual teams of real professional athletes - has recently gained in popularity. Various firms provide projections regarding athletes’ future performance to help participants choose their virtual teams. We evaluate such forecasts based on 1658 projections regarding NBA basketball of four selected projection providers that were collected in February 2022. We calculate standard measures of forecast quality and find that the use of professional forecasts reduces the errors made in naïve forecasts, but only to a moderate extent. Applying regression-based tests of forecast efficiency, we find that the predictions are inefficient and, in some cases, even biased. Third, pairwise comparisons of the accuracy of the providers suggest notable differences among such providers in the short run. We use a simple optimization algorithm to choose a virtual team for each match day and feed it with the forecasts of the providers. Subsequently, we rank the providers according to the score obtained by these teams. We find small, although in one case significant, long-run differences between the providers, among whom each provides better accuracy than that of a naïve projection based on these athletes’ past performances. Finally, we simulate one-on-one competition among various forecast providers to ascertain the long-term profitability of their services. Given the small magnitude of the detected differences, our results, in brief, raise doubts as to whether the forecasts provided are worth the money.
{"title":"Are they worth it? – An evaluation of predictions for NBA ‘Fantasy Sports’","authors":"Jörg Döpke, Tim Köhler, Lars Tegtmeier","doi":"10.1007/s12197-023-09646-7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s12197-023-09646-7","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract ‘Fantasy Sports’ - an internet-based game in which participants chose virtual teams of real professional athletes - has recently gained in popularity. Various firms provide projections regarding athletes’ future performance to help participants choose their virtual teams. We evaluate such forecasts based on 1658 projections regarding NBA basketball of four selected projection providers that were collected in February 2022. We calculate standard measures of forecast quality and find that the use of professional forecasts reduces the errors made in naïve forecasts, but only to a moderate extent. Applying regression-based tests of forecast efficiency, we find that the predictions are inefficient and, in some cases, even biased. Third, pairwise comparisons of the accuracy of the providers suggest notable differences among such providers in the short run. We use a simple optimization algorithm to choose a virtual team for each match day and feed it with the forecasts of the providers. Subsequently, we rank the providers according to the score obtained by these teams. We find small, although in one case significant, long-run differences between the providers, among whom each provides better accuracy than that of a naïve projection based on these athletes’ past performances. Finally, we simulate one-on-one competition among various forecast providers to ascertain the long-term profitability of their services. Given the small magnitude of the detected differences, our results, in brief, raise doubts as to whether the forecasts provided are worth the money.","PeriodicalId":39959,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economics and Finance","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135412790","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-10-17DOI: 10.1007/s12197-023-09647-6
Panos Fousekis
Abstract The objective of the present work is to investigate the contemporaneous price co-movement in the futures markets of soybean and palm oil. This is pursued using quantile coherency (a statistical tool that allows for both frequency- and quantile-dependent linkages between stochastic processes) and daily futures prices from 2015 to 2023. The empirical findings suggest: (a) The co-movement between palm and soybean oil prices is not very high and, at the same time, it is asymmetric; prices in the two markets are more likely to crash than to boom together. (b) The intensity of co-movement tends to increase monotonically with the time-scale considered. However, the bulk of the adjustments to shocks tend to be completed within 1 month; the differences between coherency estimates in the medium- and in the long-run are rather small. (c) Price co-movement appears to be driven by both pure (short-run) contagion as well as by fundamental-based (long-run) contagion.
{"title":"Quantile coherency of futures prices in palm and soybean oil markets","authors":"Panos Fousekis","doi":"10.1007/s12197-023-09647-6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s12197-023-09647-6","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The objective of the present work is to investigate the contemporaneous price co-movement in the futures markets of soybean and palm oil. This is pursued using quantile coherency (a statistical tool that allows for both frequency- and quantile-dependent linkages between stochastic processes) and daily futures prices from 2015 to 2023. The empirical findings suggest: (a) The co-movement between palm and soybean oil prices is not very high and, at the same time, it is asymmetric; prices in the two markets are more likely to crash than to boom together. (b) The intensity of co-movement tends to increase monotonically with the time-scale considered. However, the bulk of the adjustments to shocks tend to be completed within 1 month; the differences between coherency estimates in the medium- and in the long-run are rather small. (c) Price co-movement appears to be driven by both pure (short-run) contagion as well as by fundamental-based (long-run) contagion.","PeriodicalId":39959,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economics and Finance","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135993211","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-09-26DOI: 10.1007/s12197-023-09645-8
Jeffrey S. Allen
{"title":"Pay it forward (digitally): sizing up the global impact of electronic wages on digital payment usage","authors":"Jeffrey S. Allen","doi":"10.1007/s12197-023-09645-8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s12197-023-09645-8","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":39959,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economics and Finance","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134960955","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Innovation and governance","authors":"Saurav Roychoudhury, Anuj Bhowmik, Srobonti Chattopadhyay","doi":"10.1007/s12197-023-09632-z","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s12197-023-09632-z","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":39959,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economics and Finance","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135014294","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-08-21DOI: 10.1007/s12197-023-09644-9
M. Tessmann, C. Carrasco-Gutierrez, Marcelo de Oliveira Passos, Luiz Augusto Magalhães, Regis A. Ely
{"title":"Volatility transmissions and connectivity among metal and energy commodities: a network-econometric analysis","authors":"M. Tessmann, C. Carrasco-Gutierrez, Marcelo de Oliveira Passos, Luiz Augusto Magalhães, Regis A. Ely","doi":"10.1007/s12197-023-09644-9","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s12197-023-09644-9","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":39959,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economics and Finance","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87208433","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-08-10DOI: 10.1007/s12197-023-09642-x
Hao Fang, Chien‐Ping Chung, Yang-Cheng Lu, Yen‐Hsien Lee
{"title":"Effects of a CEO’s overconfidence and his/her power on the performance of Chinese firms","authors":"Hao Fang, Chien‐Ping Chung, Yang-Cheng Lu, Yen‐Hsien Lee","doi":"10.1007/s12197-023-09642-x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s12197-023-09642-x","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":39959,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economics and Finance","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77534543","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-08-07DOI: 10.1007/s12197-023-09635-w
Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee, A. Mohammadian
{"title":"Whose trade flows are affected by Global Policy Uncertainty? asymmetric evidence from G7","authors":"Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee, A. Mohammadian","doi":"10.1007/s12197-023-09635-w","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s12197-023-09635-w","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":39959,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economics and Finance","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"90511539","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-08-02DOI: 10.1007/s12197-023-09634-x
J. Sánchez García, Salvador Cruz Rambaud
{"title":"Volatility spillovers between oil and financial markets during economic and financial crises: A dynamic approach","authors":"J. Sánchez García, Salvador Cruz Rambaud","doi":"10.1007/s12197-023-09634-x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s12197-023-09634-x","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":39959,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economics and Finance","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82024213","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-07-23DOI: 10.1007/s12197-023-09638-7
Patrick Herb, Farooq Malik
{"title":"Re-examining the impact of oil prices on stock returns in the presence of time-varying volatility","authors":"Patrick Herb, Farooq Malik","doi":"10.1007/s12197-023-09638-7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s12197-023-09638-7","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":39959,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economics and Finance","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-07-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76046900","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-07-22DOI: 10.1007/s12197-023-09641-y
Adriano Maia, Guilherme de Oliveira, Raul Matsushita, S. Da Silva
{"title":"Granular banks and corporate investment","authors":"Adriano Maia, Guilherme de Oliveira, Raul Matsushita, S. Da Silva","doi":"10.1007/s12197-023-09641-y","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s12197-023-09641-y","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":39959,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economics and Finance","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-07-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81516554","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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