A key thrust of the Actuarial Society of South Africa’s strategic plan is to promote diversity in actuarial demography. The aim is that the membership profile of the actuarial profession increasingly reflects the demographic profile of the country.More broadly, it is useful for a profession to consider how it has evolved, and how changes in the environment in which it operates may affect demand for its services in the future. In the last few years, as a result of economic development and growth in the services sector, as well as changes in the financial and insurance environment, including regulatory and technological developments as well as social and demographic changes, the demand for actuaries in South Africa has grown significantly. South Africa faces a number of challenges, such as a poorly educated workforce with high levels of unemployment and skills shortages. Poor socio-economic conditions for a large majority of the population result in high crime levels and emigration of skilled workers—a negative spiral. These are all interrelated and all affect economic growth and the demand for actuaries. While deterioration in these conditions negatively affects demand, global developments, such as international accounting standards and Solvency II, are creating demand. At the same time, emigration of actuaries and actuarial students creates shortages and a much tighter actuarial resource market. This paper covers the current demographics of the membership of the Actuarial Society of South Africa, factors affecting demand, the results of research performed among South African employers of actuarial resources and models developed for projecting future demand. The models indicate moderate growth in demand in the short term.
{"title":"Demand for actuarial resources in South Africa","authors":"W. Terblanche","doi":"10.4314/SAAJ.V9I1.46818","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4314/SAAJ.V9I1.46818","url":null,"abstract":"A key thrust of the Actuarial Society of South Africa’s strategic plan is to promote diversity in actuarial demography. The aim is that the membership profile of the actuarial profession increasingly reflects the demographic profile of the country.More broadly, it is useful for a profession to consider how it has evolved, and how changes in the environment in which it operates may affect demand for its services in the future. In the last few years, as a result of economic development and growth in the services sector, as well as changes in the financial and insurance environment, including regulatory and technological developments as well as social and demographic changes, the demand for actuaries in South Africa has grown significantly. South Africa faces a number of challenges, such as a poorly educated workforce with high levels of unemployment and skills shortages. Poor socio-economic conditions for a large majority of the population result in high crime levels and emigration of skilled workers—a negative spiral. These are all interrelated and all affect economic growth and the demand for actuaries. While deterioration in these conditions negatively affects demand, global developments, such as international accounting standards and Solvency II, are creating demand. At the same time, emigration of actuaries and actuarial students creates shortages and a much tighter actuarial resource market. This paper covers the current demographics of the membership of the Actuarial Society of South Africa, factors affecting demand, the results of research performed among South African employers of actuarial resources and models developed for projecting future demand. The models indicate moderate growth in demand in the short term.","PeriodicalId":40732,"journal":{"name":"South African Actuarial Journal","volume":"9 1","pages":"1-52"},"PeriodicalIF":0.2,"publicationDate":"2009-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"70614428","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper is located in the field of actuarial professional education. It draws on current literature and empirical evidence to argue the need for developing generic 'normative' capabilities and values in the actuarial profession. The paper examines three themes of normative education for actuaries - the intended purpose of an education programme, the range of capabilities and values to be developed and educational 'best practice'. A literature review of normative education in various professions provided a theoretical framework for data analysis, and for making recommendations. Data were collected from three sources: interviews with stakeholders; documentary evidence regarding current education of actuaries and accountants; and advertisements for employment of nearly or newly qualified actuaries. The paper draws on the literature and the empirical evidence to argue that the purpose of an actuarial education programme is to ensure the delivery of a service of quality. For this delivery to be achieved, attention must be given to technical, normative and organisational learning. The paper then reviews normative capabilities and values for actuaries. Thereafter, educational considerations for the development of normative capabilities and values are discussed. The paper concludes by drawing on the study to outline principles to guide curriculum planning for the normative component of the new South African actuarial qualification.
{"title":"Education for actuarial quality must develop more than technical competence","authors":"Michael Lowther, W. Mcmillan, F. Venter","doi":"10.4314/SAAJ.V9I1.46819","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4314/SAAJ.V9I1.46819","url":null,"abstract":"This paper is located in the field of actuarial professional education. It draws on current literature and empirical evidence to argue the need for developing generic 'normative' capabilities and values in the actuarial profession. The paper examines three themes of normative education for actuaries - the intended purpose of an education programme, the range of capabilities and values to be developed and educational 'best practice'. A literature review of normative education in various professions provided a theoretical framework for data analysis, and for making recommendations. Data were collected from three sources: interviews with stakeholders; documentary evidence regarding current education of actuaries and accountants; and advertisements for employment of nearly or newly qualified actuaries. The paper draws on the literature and the empirical evidence to argue that the purpose of an actuarial education programme is to ensure the delivery of a service of quality. For this delivery to be achieved, attention must be given to technical, normative and organisational learning. The paper then reviews normative capabilities and values for actuaries. Thereafter, educational considerations for the development of normative capabilities and values are discussed. The paper concludes by drawing on the study to outline principles to guide curriculum planning for the normative component of the new South African actuarial qualification.","PeriodicalId":40732,"journal":{"name":"South African Actuarial Journal","volume":"9 1","pages":"53-75"},"PeriodicalIF":0.2,"publicationDate":"2009-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"70614566","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper describes the theoretical framework underlying the four-funds basis for taxing life insurance in South Africa and records the historical steps in the development of the basis from inception to its current form. It goes on to evaluate the basis in its current form and to propose possible changes that should be considered. South African Actuarial Journal Vol. 8 2008: pp. 1-34
本文描述了南非人寿保险征税四基金基础的理论框架，并记录了该基础从成立到目前形式发展的历史步骤。它接着评价目前形式的基础，并提出应考虑的可能的改变。南非精算杂志Vol. 8 2008: pp. 1-34
{"title":"Taxation of life insurance in South Africa revisited : refereed paper","authors":"R. Clover","doi":"10.4314/SAAJ.V8I1.24506","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4314/SAAJ.V8I1.24506","url":null,"abstract":"This paper describes the theoretical framework underlying the four-funds basis for taxing life insurance in South Africa and records the historical steps in the development of the basis from inception to its current form. It goes on to evaluate the basis in its current form and to propose possible changes that should be considered. South African Actuarial Journal Vol. 8 2008: pp. 1-34","PeriodicalId":40732,"journal":{"name":"South African Actuarial Journal","volume":"8 1","pages":"1-34"},"PeriodicalIF":0.2,"publicationDate":"2008-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"70614108","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This book is based on the proceedings of the conference 'Frontiers in pension finance and reform' held in Amsterdam in March 2007. It takes the form of an introductory chapter written by the editors and then ten chapters written by different authors, each chapter being accompanied by a short discussion piece.
{"title":"Frontiers in Pension Finance, D. Broeders, S. Eijffinger & A. Houben (Eds.) : book review","authors":"D. Bowie","doi":"10.4314/SAAJ.V8I1.24515","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4314/SAAJ.V8I1.24515","url":null,"abstract":"This book is based on the proceedings of the conference 'Frontiers in pension finance and reform' held in Amsterdam in March 2007. It takes the form of an introductory chapter written by the editors and then ten chapters written by different authors, each chapter being accompanied by a short discussion piece.","PeriodicalId":40732,"journal":{"name":"South African Actuarial Journal","volume":"8 1","pages":"107-108"},"PeriodicalIF":0.2,"publicationDate":"2008-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"70614368","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
With the high level of the HIV epidemic in South Africa, medical schemes continue to be at risk. Risk-management strategies need to take into account that the disease is not notifiable and that there is legislated open enrolment and community rating of contributions, as well as prescribed minimum benefits for HIV/AIDS. As a result, many schemes have introduced HIV disease management and awareness programmes that are aimed at improving the health of HIV-positive beneficiaries and preventing new infections. This paper provides an analysis of current developments in the medical-scheme industry with respect to HIV/AIDS. For a sample of the medical-scheme membership, HIV prevalence estimates are presented with the associated cost effects. This sample is however not necessarily representative of the medical-scheme population. The intention is therefore to develop a methodology for producing indicative results to inform management decisions. The opportunity to lower costs related to HIV/AIDS through proactive risk management is investigated. South African Actuarial Journal Vol. 8 2008: pp. 35-91
由于艾滋病毒在南非的流行程度很高，医疗计划继续处于危险之中。风险管理战略需要考虑到，这种疾病是不需要通报的，有法律规定的公开登记和社区缴费等级，以及规定的艾滋病毒/艾滋病最低福利。因此，许多计划引入了艾滋病毒疾病管理和认识方案，旨在改善艾滋病毒阳性受益者的健康状况并预防新的感染。本文分析了医疗计划行业在艾滋病毒/艾滋病方面的当前发展情况。对于医疗计划成员的样本，提供了艾滋病毒流行率估计值以及相关的成本影响。然而，这个样本并不一定代表医疗计划的人口。因此，目的是制订一种产生指示性结果的方法，以便为管理决策提供信息。研究了通过主动风险管理降低艾滋病毒/艾滋病相关费用的机会。南非精算杂志Vol. 8 2008: pp. 35-91
{"title":"The effects of HIV/AIDS on medical schemes in South Africa","authors":"By R da Silva, L. Wayburne","doi":"10.4314/SAAJ.V8I1.24513","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4314/SAAJ.V8I1.24513","url":null,"abstract":"With the high level of the HIV epidemic in South Africa, medical schemes continue to be at risk. Risk-management strategies need to take into account that the disease is not notifiable and that there is legislated open enrolment and community rating of contributions, as well as prescribed minimum benefits for HIV/AIDS. As a result, many schemes have introduced HIV disease management and awareness programmes that are aimed at improving the health of HIV-positive beneficiaries and preventing new infections. This paper provides an analysis of current developments in the medical-scheme industry with respect to HIV/AIDS. For a sample of the medical-scheme membership, HIV prevalence estimates are presented with the associated cost effects. This sample is however not necessarily representative of the medical-scheme population. The intention is therefore to develop a methodology for producing indicative results to inform management decisions. The opportunity to lower costs related to HIV/AIDS through proactive risk management is investigated. South African Actuarial Journal Vol. 8 2008: pp. 35-91","PeriodicalId":40732,"journal":{"name":"South African Actuarial Journal","volume":"8 1","pages":"35-91"},"PeriodicalIF":0.2,"publicationDate":"2008-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"70614275","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper investigates the various education and qualification systems available around the world for actuaries, and analyses which actuarial associations rely on their own examinations, those of other bodies, or those of universities. Particular attention is given to the Australian system, which in several ways parallels the South African situation. The paper outlines the pros and possible cons of a local education and qualification system for the actuarial profession in South Africa. Various options currently available to the Actuarial Society of South Africa relating to a local education and qualification system are discussed. Following the withdrawal of the localised final examinations by the Faculty and Institute of Actuaries at the end of 2006, themaintenance of the current system is not an option. Key issues that will need to be addressed if changes are to be made to the South African actuarial education system are highlighted. Keywords : Education; professional qualification; professional designation; actuaries; South Africa South African Acturial Journal Vol. 7 2007: pp. 1-47
{"title":"Options for the development of the education and professional qualification of South African actuaries","authors":"P. Slattery, H. Kemp","doi":"10.4314/SAAJ.V7I1.24508","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4314/SAAJ.V7I1.24508","url":null,"abstract":"This paper investigates the various education and qualification systems available around the world for actuaries, and analyses which actuarial associations rely on their own examinations, those of other bodies, or those of universities. Particular attention is given to the Australian system, which in several ways parallels the South African situation. The paper outlines the pros and possible cons of a local education and qualification system for the actuarial profession in South Africa. Various options currently available to the Actuarial Society of South Africa relating to a local education and qualification system are discussed. Following the withdrawal of the localised final examinations by the Faculty and Institute of Actuaries at the end of 2006, themaintenance of the current system is not an option. Key issues that will need to be addressed if changes are to be made to the South African actuarial education system are highlighted. Keywords : Education; professional qualification; professional designation; actuaries; South Africa South African Acturial Journal Vol. 7 2007: pp. 1-47","PeriodicalId":40732,"journal":{"name":"South African Actuarial Journal","volume":"7 1","pages":"1-47"},"PeriodicalIF":0.2,"publicationDate":"2007-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"70614045","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
By P Govender, N. Kambaran, N. Patchett, A. Ruddle, G. Torr, N. V. Zyl
This article begins with a discussion of various definitions and concepts of poverty and inequality. It then distinguishes between objective and subjective concepts of poverty, temporary versus chronic poverty, and absolute versus relative poverty. The concept of inequality is discussed and compared with that of poverty. Specific measures of poverty and inequality are considered next. The measurement of poverty requires the choice of a welfare measure, a benchmark welfare level for identifying those in poverty (a poverty line), and the selection of one or more appropriate poverty indicators. The mathematically desirable features of a poverty or inequality measure are discussed, and the most commonly used measures are described. Some of the special considerations that arise when measuring poverty and inequality at the world level are then investigated, and this is followed by a discussion of the datasets available for producing these. Finally, actual estimates of poverty and inequality in South Africa and the world are examined, with a particular focus on trying to assess the trend in recent years. It seems fairly certain that the proportion of people in the world living in absolute poverty has declined significantly and consistently over the last few decades, and this trend is continuing. There is less agreement about trends in inequality. Progress against poverty has been very uneven across regions: there have been dramatic declines in Asia, but the situation in Africa has worsened. There is an ongoing debate about poverty and inequality trends in South Africa. Keywords : Poverty; inequality; South Africa; world South African Acturial Journal Vol. 7 2007: pp. 117-160
{"title":"Poverty and inequality in South Africa and the world","authors":"By P Govender, N. Kambaran, N. Patchett, A. Ruddle, G. Torr, N. V. Zyl","doi":"10.4314/SAAJ.V7I1.24511","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4314/SAAJ.V7I1.24511","url":null,"abstract":"This article begins with a discussion of various definitions and concepts of poverty and inequality. It then distinguishes between objective and subjective concepts of poverty, temporary versus chronic poverty, and absolute versus relative poverty. The concept of inequality is discussed and compared with that of poverty. Specific measures of poverty and inequality are considered next. The measurement of poverty requires the choice of a welfare measure, a benchmark welfare level for identifying those in poverty (a poverty line), and the selection of one or more appropriate poverty indicators. The mathematically desirable features of a poverty or inequality measure are discussed, and the most commonly used measures are described. Some of the special considerations that arise when measuring poverty and inequality at the world level are then investigated, and this is followed by a discussion of the datasets available for producing these. Finally, actual estimates of poverty and inequality in South Africa and the world are examined, with a particular focus on trying to assess the trend in recent years. It seems fairly certain that the proportion of people in the world living in absolute poverty has declined significantly and consistently over the last few decades, and this trend is continuing. There is less agreement about trends in inequality. Progress against poverty has been very uneven across regions: there have been dramatic declines in Asia, but the situation in Africa has worsened. There is an ongoing debate about poverty and inequality trends in South Africa. Keywords : Poverty; inequality; South Africa; world South African Acturial Journal Vol. 7 2007: pp. 117-160","PeriodicalId":40732,"journal":{"name":"South African Actuarial Journal","volume":"7 1","pages":"117-160"},"PeriodicalIF":0.2,"publicationDate":"2007-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"70613812","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper presents a model for assessing the potential effect of an HIV / AIDS vaccine in South Africa, and for calculating the amount of vaccine that would be required. A number of different hypothetical vaccine profiles and vaccine distribution strategies are considered. Results suggest that a sterilising vaccine could reduce the HIV incidence between 2015 and 2025 by up to 50%, while a disease-modifying vaccine would be unlikely to reduce HIV incidence by more than a third. The effect on AIDS mortality over the same period would be substantially smaller, and it is unlikely that any preventive vaccine would reduce AIDS mortality by more than 10% between 2015 and 2025.
{"title":"The potential effect of an HIV / AIDS vaccine in South Africa","authors":"L. Johnson, R. Dorrington","doi":"10.4314/SAAJ.V7I1.24509","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4314/SAAJ.V7I1.24509","url":null,"abstract":"This paper presents a model for assessing the potential effect of an HIV / AIDS vaccine in South Africa, and for calculating the amount of vaccine that would be required. A number of different hypothetical vaccine profiles and vaccine distribution strategies are considered. Results suggest that a sterilising vaccine could reduce the HIV incidence between 2015 and 2025 by up to 50%, while a disease-modifying vaccine would be unlikely to reduce HIV incidence by more than a third. The effect on AIDS mortality over the same period would be substantially smaller, and it is unlikely that any preventive vaccine would reduce AIDS mortality by more than 10% between 2015 and 2025.","PeriodicalId":40732,"journal":{"name":"South African Actuarial Journal","volume":"7 1","pages":"49-72"},"PeriodicalIF":0.2,"publicationDate":"2007-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"70613646","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper describes the data and the processes used to produce the first standard tables of mortality of South African immediate annuitants. A parametric curve was fitted to the data from the normal retirement ages up to age 85. Below the normal retirement ages the rates increasingly reflected the impact of higher mortality due to ill-health retirements and so the curve was blended into that of the most recent standard table of life-assured mortality (SA85–90). Above age 85 the estimates were thought to be unreliable and the extrapolation of the curve fit to the younger ages did not allow for the expected fall in the rate of increase in the rates with age. Thus rates above this age were estimated using a relationship proposed by Coale and Kisker. It was not possible to produce select rates or to decide on a trend in these rates over time. Keywords : South Africa; annuitant; mortality; standard table South African Acturial Journal Vol. 7 2007: pp. 161-184
{"title":"South African Annuitant Standard Mortality Tables 1996-2000 (SAIML98 and SAIFL98)","authors":"R. Dorrington, S. Tootla","doi":"10.4314/SAAJ.V7I1.24512","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4314/SAAJ.V7I1.24512","url":null,"abstract":"This paper describes the data and the processes used to produce the first standard tables of mortality of South African immediate annuitants. A parametric curve was fitted to the data from the normal retirement ages up to age 85. Below the normal retirement ages the rates increasingly reflected the impact of higher mortality due to ill-health retirements and so the curve was blended into that of the most recent standard table of life-assured mortality (SA85–90). Above age 85 the estimates were thought to be unreliable and the extrapolation of the curve fit to the younger ages did not allow for the expected fall in the rate of increase in the rates with age. Thus rates above this age were estimated using a relationship proposed by Coale and Kisker. It was not possible to produce select rates or to decide on a trend in these rates over time. Keywords : South Africa; annuitant; mortality; standard table South African Acturial Journal Vol. 7 2007: pp. 161-184","PeriodicalId":40732,"journal":{"name":"South African Actuarial Journal","volume":"7 1","pages":"161-184"},"PeriodicalIF":0.2,"publicationDate":"2007-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"70613885","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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