Pub Date : 2021-05-15DOI: 10.7591/cornell/9781501754746.003.0010
Ryan D. Griffiths
This chapter begins the transition from the case studies to the final sections of the book in which it zooms out to view the dynamics of secession from a wide angle and to test the theory in a large-N format. It first describes the data on secessionist movements by excluding all of the cases prior to 1945 because the strategic playing field for secessionists was different in earlier periods, and removing cases where the strategic playing field is substantially different. The chapter then explains how they were sorted into the six secessionist kinds. The chapter also elaborates the data used for the dependent variable: compellence and normative appeal. To study compellence tactics, it presented new data on secessionist methods and modelled three tactics in which the movements pursue independence via institutional means, civil resistance and nonviolent extra-institutional means, and violent extra institutional means. To study normative appeal, it created new data on the rhetoric used by secessionist groups around the time they became active. Ultimately, the chapter presents a quantitative analysis in two dependent variables of tactics of compellence and normative appeal.
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Pub Date : 2021-05-15DOI: 10.1163/2405-9749_elr_com_00000082
Ryan D. Griffiths
This chapter tells the story of the independence effort in Northern Cyprus. It showcases the tactical options that are both available and unavailable to de facto state movements, and provides a cautionary tale for what happens when a secessionist region is separated from the rest of the state. The chapter discusses the tactics of the Northern Cypriots which are characterized by an inability to compel the home state using violence, nonviolence, and electoral capture, and then examines how they focused on defense, deterrence, and the keeping of the territory they possess instead. The chapter unveils how they demonstrated to the world that they are an empirical state that has earned sovereign recognition. It also investigates the calcified, frozen, and externalized conflict in Northern Cyprus, and assesses the impact of intricate diplomatic relations and geopolitical complexity. Ultimately, the chapter provides an illustration of how some independence movements, notably in the case of Northern Cyprus, are forced to play the sovereignty game. Although they have won their autonomy, their freedom, and their security, the victory is incomplete, as the Northern Cypriots know, because they are caught in a twilight state between reintegration and full statehood.
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Pub Date : 2021-05-15DOI: 10.7591/cornell/9781501754746.003.0002
Ryan D. Griffiths
This chapter maps out the strategic playing field to better understand the sovereignty game. It analyses the process by which an independence movement becomes a sovereign state and the rules that guide the behavior of secessionists. The chapter then defines states and secessionist movements, and outlines their relationship to one another. It examines the international recognition regime by defining it as the evolving body of international legal norms, rules, and principles that determine when an applicant nation has the right to withdraw from an existing state and become a recognized independent sovereign state. The chapter discusses how and why the regime works, how it evolves over time, and highlights the competing normative demands that sit at the heart of the regime. Using the literature on sovereignty and international law, as well as interviews with UN officials, the chapter specifies the admission process for becoming a recognized sovereign state, and the perceived pathways it creates. It further explains two dimensions of statehood that are important for the theoretical framework of the study. One dimension pertains to the inwardly focused function of the state and its ability to provide political order. The other dimension is outwardly focused and calls attention to recognition by other states.
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Pub Date : 2021-05-15DOI: 10.7591/cornell/9781501754746.003.0012
Ryan D. Griffiths
This chapter concludes with a theoretical and prescriptive analysis of the future of the sovereignty game. It highlights several past configurations of the international recognition regime, and identifies three potential future configurations that focus on remedial rights, primary rights, and state consent. The chapter also discusses the comparative statics of each configuration — that is, the expected frequency of secession, conflict, and the fitness of new states as a result of the regime. The chapter then shifts to a more prescriptive analysis of how the game might be improved. It argues, with caution, for the merits of a regime that emphasizes consent-based democratized secession, in which independence movements have formal institutional access but where the conditions for political exit are nevertheless hard to reach. The resulting benefits for the sovereignty game are that conflict would be reduced both within and between states. Ultimately, the chapter details the potential critiques of the study, noting that the proposal says nothing about the importance of a remedial right and maintained that it is quite difficult to implement.
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Pub Date : 2021-05-15DOI: 10.7591/cornell/9781501754746.003.0001
Ryan D. Griffiths
This chapter focuses on the strategy and tactics of secessionist movements, and the game they play with states and the international community to win their sovereignty. The chapter provides a conceptual theoretical treatment of the sovereignty game. It assesses six identifiable kinds of movements: democratized, indigenous legal, weak combative, strong combative, decolonial, and de facto, through an analysis of all contemporary movements. The chapter brings together three research areas that are usually treated separately: the work on de facto states, the scholarship on secessionist political parties in advanced democracies, and the study of secessionist conflict. Ultimately, the chapter clarifies the behavior of diverse secessionist movements and accurately predicts the tactics they adopt. It focuses on what they do to achieve independence, which is a neglected area of research, and a vital one given that secessionist behavior is destabilizing and sometimes violent.
{"title":"Many Secessionist Movements, One International System","authors":"Ryan D. Griffiths","doi":"10.7591/cornell/9781501754746.003.0001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.7591/cornell/9781501754746.003.0001","url":null,"abstract":"This chapter focuses on the strategy and tactics of secessionist movements, and the game they play with states and the international community to win their sovereignty. The chapter provides a conceptual theoretical treatment of the sovereignty game. It assesses six identifiable kinds of movements: democratized, indigenous legal, weak combative, strong combative, decolonial, and de facto, through an analysis of all contemporary movements. The chapter brings together three research areas that are usually treated separately: the work on de facto states, the scholarship on secessionist political parties in advanced democracies, and the study of secessionist conflict. Ultimately, the chapter clarifies the behavior of diverse secessionist movements and accurately predicts the tactics they adopt. It focuses on what they do to achieve independence, which is a neglected area of research, and a vital one given that secessionist behavior is destabilizing and sometimes violent.","PeriodicalId":414134,"journal":{"name":"Secession and the Sovereignty Game","volume":"39 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-05-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127740263","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-05-15DOI: 10.7591/cornell/9781501754746.003.0003
Ryan D. Griffiths
This chapter advances the theory of secessionist strategy and tactical variation, arguing that the strategy and tactics of secession are shaped by the international recognition regime and further contextualized by the setting in which any given secessionist movement operates. The chapter explains how secessionist movements need to compel and persuade their home state to give consent and/or bring the international community into the contest. The chapter uses information drawn from interviews to show that secessionists are well informed about the dynamics of secession. By explaining the logics of compellence and normative appeal, the chapter explicates the different tactics within these two logics. It asserts that the choice of tactics depends on local conditions that cluster around six kinds of movements (democratized, indigenous legal, weak combative, strong combative, decolonial, and de facto). Ultimately, the chapter discusses a prominent hybrid case, Iraqi Kurdistan, and examines the counter-strategy of states.
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Pub Date : 2021-05-15DOI: 10.7591/cornell/9781501754746.003.0006
Ryan D. Griffiths
This chapter focuses on the long running independence effort in West Papua, an example of the weak combative type of secession movement. It demonstrates what can happen to secessionism in weakly institutionalized settings. The chapter discusses the two dominant normative appeals: the primary one stresses human rights and the second common appeal focuses on decolonization. It also analyses how key features related to electoral politics and freedom of speech prevent the secessionist movement from attaining the level of political voice that one normally finds in a democratized setting. West Papua is integrated with the larger state and yet cannot engage in electoral capture. Unlike Bougainville, it faces a powerful military opponent whom it cannot dislodge from the territory nor fight to a standstill. By this context, the chapter documents the tactics of the secessionists in West Papua that evolved in relation to their inability to challenge the state militarily.
{"title":"West Papua","authors":"Ryan D. Griffiths","doi":"10.7591/cornell/9781501754746.003.0006","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.7591/cornell/9781501754746.003.0006","url":null,"abstract":"This chapter focuses on the long running independence effort in West Papua, an example of the weak combative type of secession movement. It demonstrates what can happen to secessionism in weakly institutionalized settings. The chapter discusses the two dominant normative appeals: the primary one stresses human rights and the second common appeal focuses on decolonization. It also analyses how key features related to electoral politics and freedom of speech prevent the secessionist movement from attaining the level of political voice that one normally finds in a democratized setting. West Papua is integrated with the larger state and yet cannot engage in electoral capture. Unlike Bougainville, it faces a powerful military opponent whom it cannot dislodge from the territory nor fight to a standstill. By this context, the chapter documents the tactics of the secessionists in West Papua that evolved in relation to their inability to challenge the state militarily.","PeriodicalId":414134,"journal":{"name":"Secession and the Sovereignty Game","volume":"12 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-05-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128413152","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-05-15DOI: 10.7591/cornell/9781501754746.003.0011
Ryan D. Griffiths
This chapter identifies the causes and consequences of bad strategy and poor tactics. It distinguishes three sources of error: incomplete information, wishful thinking, and mixed objectives. The chapter also explains the metaphor of the “game” when referring to the subject matter as the sovereignty game, noting that the sovereignty game is shaped by an evolving set of formal and informal rules and practices. The chapter presents two reasons why wishful thinking is present in secessionist movements: the first follows from the problem of incomplete information and the second is the simple penchant for hope. The chapter also analyses how internal division (factionalism) complicates the strategic and tactical playing field and its effects within self-determination groups. The product of the different causes of bad strategy is a game where play is varied and where actors often make poor choices. The game is coherent enough to shape play but sufficiently vague to produce misaligned tactics. With such awareness, the chapter outlines these causes and their consequences and, in doing so, begin to set the stage for a more prescriptive discussion.
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Pub Date : 2021-05-15DOI: 10.7591/cornell/9781501754746.003.0008
Ryan D. Griffiths
This chapter focuses on New Caledonia, an example of a decolonial movement. It tracks the development of the movement since the 1960s and follows the different tactics it used at different points in time. The chapter also elaborates the tactics of compellence of New Caledonia, which involved nonviolent civil resistance, the use of violence, and electoral capture. It details how French democracy gradually enfranchised the indigenous group, the Kanaks, and gave them political voice. The chapter presents the independence effort in New Caledonia led by the Kanaks and other ethnic groups including immigrants from France, elements of the white settler community, and Wallisians. It then introduces a new period of cultural movement known as the Kanak Awakening, and its greatest leader, Jean-Marie Tjibaou from the east coast of Grand Terre. Ultimately, the chapter argues that Caledonia differs most from the other movements in this study, for, unlike them, it is classified as a non-self-governing territory and therefore eligible for independence via the path of decolonization.
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Pub Date : 1900-01-01DOI: 10.1515/9781501754760-019
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