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Estimating the International Cocaine Market: A Novel Combination of Excess Compensation and Stochastic Frontier Analysis 估算国际可卡因市场:超额补偿与随机前沿分析的新组合
IF 0.7 Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-01-03 DOI: 10.1515/ajle-2023-0129
Ba Tam Le, Xuan Thi Thanh Mai, T. Ngo, Tu D. Q. Le
Abstract Although there are different ways to estimate the value of the illicit drug markets, the main issue remains that one cannot estimate the unseized or floating value of drugs at the country- and international-level markets. This study applies a novel estimation method that combines excess compensation estimation (from the financial field) and stochastic frontier analysis (from the operations research field) to estimate the value of the international cocaine market in 2019. Our estimations show that in 2019, the unseized market accounted for 32.16 % of the total market of cocaine and was smaller than the ratio of 48 % in 2007, indicating that the effectiveness of countries in disrupting the illicit cocaine market has improved. More importantly, we show that improvement in dealing with money laundering risks could also help reduce the illicit market of cocaine since illicit cocaine/drug proceeds must be laundered before they can be used by criminal organisations.
摘要 尽管估算非法毒品市场价值的方法多种多样,但主要问题仍然是无法估算毒品在国家和国际层面市场的未实现价值或浮动价值。本研究采用一种新颖的估算方法,将超额补偿估算(来自金融领域)和随机前沿分析(来自运筹学领域)结合起来,估算 2019 年国际可卡因市场的价值。我们的估算结果表明,2019 年,未被查封的市场占可卡因总市场的 32.16%,小于 2007 年的 48%,表明各国打击非法可卡因市场的效果有所改善。更重要的是,我们表明,在应对洗钱风险方面的改进也有助于减少可卡因非法市场,因为非法可卡因/毒品收益在被犯罪组织使用之前必须经过洗钱。
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引用次数: 0
Second, But Not Last: Competition with Positive Spillovers 第二,但不是最后:具有积极溢出效应的竞争
IF 0.7 Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-01-03 DOI: 10.1515/ajle-2023-0178
Alice Guerra, Francesco Parisi
Abstract This paper extends the traditional rent-seeking model to consider contests in which the effects of the contestants’ efforts are externally unproductive (i.e., redistributive) but internally productive (i.e., with positive spillover effects on other contestants). Our results show that when players act sequentially, the presence of positive spillovers on other contestants may reduce, or even reverse, the first-mover’s advantage. A second-mover advantage is very likely to arise. Notably, in contests with multiple players, the second-mover advantage does not unravel into a last-mover advantage. Players want to be second, but not last. The comparative statics analysis shows how the strength of positive spillovers affects contestants’ equilibrium expenditures and payoffs, and aggregate rent dissipation.
摘要 本文对传统的寻租模型进行了扩展,考虑了竞争者的努力所产生的外部非生产性效应(即再分配效应)但内部生产性效应(即对其他竞争者的正溢出效应)。我们的研究结果表明,当参赛者依次行动时,对其他参赛者产生的正溢出效应可能会削弱甚至逆转先行者的优势。后发优势很有可能出现。值得注意的是,在有多个参与者的竞争中,后发者优势并不会演变成后发者优势。竞争者希望成为第二,但不希望成为最后。比较静态分析表明了正溢出效应的强度如何影响竞争者的均衡支出和报酬以及总租金耗散。
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引用次数: 0
Second, But Not Last: Competition with Positive Spillovers 第二,但不是最后:具有积极溢出效应的竞争
IF 0.7 Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-01-03 DOI: 10.1515/ajle-2023-0178
Alice Guerra, Francesco Parisi
Abstract This paper extends the traditional rent-seeking model to consider contests in which the effects of the contestants’ efforts are externally unproductive (i.e., redistributive) but internally productive (i.e., with positive spillover effects on other contestants). Our results show that when players act sequentially, the presence of positive spillovers on other contestants may reduce, or even reverse, the first-mover’s advantage. A second-mover advantage is very likely to arise. Notably, in contests with multiple players, the second-mover advantage does not unravel into a last-mover advantage. Players want to be second, but not last. The comparative statics analysis shows how the strength of positive spillovers affects contestants’ equilibrium expenditures and payoffs, and aggregate rent dissipation.
摘要 本文对传统的寻租模型进行了扩展,考虑了竞争者的努力所产生的外部非生产性效应(即再分配效应)但内部生产性效应(即对其他竞争者的正溢出效应)。我们的研究结果表明,当参赛者依次行动时,对其他参赛者产生的正溢出效应可能会削弱甚至逆转先行者的优势。后发优势很有可能出现。值得注意的是,在有多个参与者的竞争中,后发者优势并不会演变成后发者优势。竞争者希望成为第二,但不希望成为最后。比较静态分析表明了正溢出效应的强度如何影响竞争者的均衡支出和报酬以及总租金耗散。
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引用次数: 0
Estimating the International Cocaine Market: A Novel Combination of Excess Compensation and Stochastic Frontier Analysis 估算国际可卡因市场:超额补偿与随机前沿分析的新组合
IF 0.7 Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-01-03 DOI: 10.1515/ajle-2023-0129
Ba Tam Le, Xuan Thi Thanh Mai, T. Ngo, Tu D. Q. Le
Abstract Although there are different ways to estimate the value of the illicit drug markets, the main issue remains that one cannot estimate the unseized or floating value of drugs at the country- and international-level markets. This study applies a novel estimation method that combines excess compensation estimation (from the financial field) and stochastic frontier analysis (from the operations research field) to estimate the value of the international cocaine market in 2019. Our estimations show that in 2019, the unseized market accounted for 32.16 % of the total market of cocaine and was smaller than the ratio of 48 % in 2007, indicating that the effectiveness of countries in disrupting the illicit cocaine market has improved. More importantly, we show that improvement in dealing with money laundering risks could also help reduce the illicit market of cocaine since illicit cocaine/drug proceeds must be laundered before they can be used by criminal organisations.
摘要 尽管估算非法毒品市场价值的方法多种多样,但主要问题仍然是无法估算毒品在国家和国际层面市场的未实现价值或浮动价值。本研究采用一种新颖的估算方法,将超额补偿估算(来自金融领域)和随机前沿分析(来自运筹学领域)结合起来,估算 2019 年国际可卡因市场的价值。我们的估算结果表明,2019 年,未被查封的市场占可卡因总市场的 32.16%,小于 2007 年的 48%,表明各国打击非法可卡因市场的效果有所改善。更重要的是,我们表明,在应对洗钱风险方面的改进也有助于减少可卡因非法市场,因为非法可卡因/毒品收益在被犯罪组织使用之前必须经过洗钱。
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引用次数: 0
Second, But Not Last: Competition with Positive Spillovers 第二,但不是最后:具有积极溢出效应的竞争
IF 0.7 Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-01-03 DOI: 10.1515/ajle-2023-0178
Alice Guerra, Francesco Parisi
Abstract This paper extends the traditional rent-seeking model to consider contests in which the effects of the contestants’ efforts are externally unproductive (i.e., redistributive) but internally productive (i.e., with positive spillover effects on other contestants). Our results show that when players act sequentially, the presence of positive spillovers on other contestants may reduce, or even reverse, the first-mover’s advantage. A second-mover advantage is very likely to arise. Notably, in contests with multiple players, the second-mover advantage does not unravel into a last-mover advantage. Players want to be second, but not last. The comparative statics analysis shows how the strength of positive spillovers affects contestants’ equilibrium expenditures and payoffs, and aggregate rent dissipation.
摘要 本文对传统的寻租模型进行了扩展,考虑了竞争者的努力所产生的外部非生产性效应(即再分配效应)但内部生产性效应(即对其他竞争者的正溢出效应)。我们的研究结果表明,当参赛者依次行动时,对其他参赛者产生的正溢出效应可能会削弱甚至逆转先行者的优势。后发优势很有可能出现。值得注意的是,在有多个参与者的竞争中,后发者优势并不会演变成后发者优势。竞争者希望成为第二,但不希望成为最后。比较静态分析表明了正溢出效应的强度如何影响竞争者的均衡支出和报酬以及总租金耗散。
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引用次数: 0
Second, But Not Last: Competition with Positive Spillovers 第二,但不是最后:具有积极溢出效应的竞争
IF 0.7 Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-01-03 DOI: 10.1515/ajle-2023-0178
Alice Guerra, Francesco Parisi
Abstract This paper extends the traditional rent-seeking model to consider contests in which the effects of the contestants’ efforts are externally unproductive (i.e., redistributive) but internally productive (i.e., with positive spillover effects on other contestants). Our results show that when players act sequentially, the presence of positive spillovers on other contestants may reduce, or even reverse, the first-mover’s advantage. A second-mover advantage is very likely to arise. Notably, in contests with multiple players, the second-mover advantage does not unravel into a last-mover advantage. Players want to be second, but not last. The comparative statics analysis shows how the strength of positive spillovers affects contestants’ equilibrium expenditures and payoffs, and aggregate rent dissipation.
摘要 本文对传统的寻租模型进行了扩展,考虑了竞争者的努力所产生的外部非生产性效应(即再分配效应)但内部生产性效应(即对其他竞争者的正溢出效应)。我们的研究结果表明,当参赛者依次行动时,对其他参赛者产生的正溢出效应可能会削弱甚至逆转先行者的优势。后发优势很有可能出现。值得注意的是,在有多个参与者的竞争中,后发者优势并不会演变成后发者优势。竞争者希望成为第二,但不希望成为最后。比较静态分析表明了正溢出效应的强度如何影响竞争者的均衡支出和报酬以及总租金耗散。
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引用次数: 0
Estimating the International Cocaine Market: A Novel Combination of Excess Compensation and Stochastic Frontier Analysis 估算国际可卡因市场:超额补偿与随机前沿分析的新组合
IF 0.7 Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-01-03 DOI: 10.1515/ajle-2023-0129
Ba Tam Le, Xuan Thi Thanh Mai, T. Ngo, Tu D. Q. Le
Abstract Although there are different ways to estimate the value of the illicit drug markets, the main issue remains that one cannot estimate the unseized or floating value of drugs at the country- and international-level markets. This study applies a novel estimation method that combines excess compensation estimation (from the financial field) and stochastic frontier analysis (from the operations research field) to estimate the value of the international cocaine market in 2019. Our estimations show that in 2019, the unseized market accounted for 32.16 % of the total market of cocaine and was smaller than the ratio of 48 % in 2007, indicating that the effectiveness of countries in disrupting the illicit cocaine market has improved. More importantly, we show that improvement in dealing with money laundering risks could also help reduce the illicit market of cocaine since illicit cocaine/drug proceeds must be laundered before they can be used by criminal organisations.
摘要 尽管估算非法毒品市场价值的方法多种多样,但主要问题仍然是无法估算毒品在国家和国际层面市场的未实现价值或浮动价值。本研究采用一种新颖的估算方法,将超额补偿估算(来自金融领域)和随机前沿分析(来自运筹学领域)结合起来,估算 2019 年国际可卡因市场的价值。我们的估算结果表明,2019 年,未被查封的市场占可卡因总市场的 32.16%,小于 2007 年的 48%,表明各国打击非法可卡因市场的效果有所改善。更重要的是,我们表明,在应对洗钱风险方面的改进也有助于减少可卡因非法市场,因为非法可卡因/毒品收益在被犯罪组织使用之前必须经过洗钱。
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引用次数: 0
Estimating the International Cocaine Market: A Novel Combination of Excess Compensation and Stochastic Frontier Analysis 估算国际可卡因市场:超额补偿与随机前沿分析的新组合
IF 0.7 Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-01-03 DOI: 10.1515/ajle-2023-0129
Ba Tam Le, Xuan Thi Thanh Mai, T. Ngo, Tu D. Q. Le
Abstract Although there are different ways to estimate the value of the illicit drug markets, the main issue remains that one cannot estimate the unseized or floating value of drugs at the country- and international-level markets. This study applies a novel estimation method that combines excess compensation estimation (from the financial field) and stochastic frontier analysis (from the operations research field) to estimate the value of the international cocaine market in 2019. Our estimations show that in 2019, the unseized market accounted for 32.16 % of the total market of cocaine and was smaller than the ratio of 48 % in 2007, indicating that the effectiveness of countries in disrupting the illicit cocaine market has improved. More importantly, we show that improvement in dealing with money laundering risks could also help reduce the illicit market of cocaine since illicit cocaine/drug proceeds must be laundered before they can be used by criminal organisations.
摘要 尽管估算非法毒品市场价值的方法多种多样,但主要问题仍然是无法估算毒品在国家和国际层面市场的未实现价值或浮动价值。本研究采用一种新颖的估算方法,将超额补偿估算(来自金融领域)和随机前沿分析(来自运筹学领域)结合起来,估算 2019 年国际可卡因市场的价值。我们的估算结果表明,2019 年,未被查封的市场占可卡因总市场的 32.16%,小于 2007 年的 48%,表明各国打击非法可卡因市场的效果有所改善。更重要的是,我们表明,在应对洗钱风险方面的改进也有助于减少可卡因非法市场,因为非法可卡因/毒品收益在被犯罪组织使用之前必须经过洗钱。
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引用次数: 0
Second, But Not Last: Competition with Positive Spillovers 第二,但不是最后:具有积极溢出效应的竞争
IF 0.7 Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-01-03 DOI: 10.1515/ajle-2023-0178
Alice Guerra, Francesco Parisi
Abstract This paper extends the traditional rent-seeking model to consider contests in which the effects of the contestants’ efforts are externally unproductive (i.e., redistributive) but internally productive (i.e., with positive spillover effects on other contestants). Our results show that when players act sequentially, the presence of positive spillovers on other contestants may reduce, or even reverse, the first-mover’s advantage. A second-mover advantage is very likely to arise. Notably, in contests with multiple players, the second-mover advantage does not unravel into a last-mover advantage. Players want to be second, but not last. The comparative statics analysis shows how the strength of positive spillovers affects contestants’ equilibrium expenditures and payoffs, and aggregate rent dissipation.
摘要 本文对传统的寻租模型进行了扩展,考虑了竞争者的努力所产生的外部非生产性效应(即再分配效应)但内部生产性效应(即对其他竞争者的正溢出效应)。我们的研究结果表明,当参赛者依次行动时,对其他参赛者产生的正溢出效应可能会削弱甚至逆转先行者的优势。后发优势很有可能出现。值得注意的是,在有多个参与者的竞争中,后发者优势并不会演变成后发者优势。竞争者希望成为第二,但不希望成为最后。比较静态分析表明了正溢出效应的强度如何影响竞争者的均衡支出和报酬以及总租金耗散。
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引用次数: 0
Second, But Not Last: Competition with Positive Spillovers 第二,但不是最后:具有积极溢出效应的竞争
IF 0.7 Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-01-03 DOI: 10.1515/ajle-2023-0178
Alice Guerra, Francesco Parisi
Abstract This paper extends the traditional rent-seeking model to consider contests in which the effects of the contestants’ efforts are externally unproductive (i.e., redistributive) but internally productive (i.e., with positive spillover effects on other contestants). Our results show that when players act sequentially, the presence of positive spillovers on other contestants may reduce, or even reverse, the first-mover’s advantage. A second-mover advantage is very likely to arise. Notably, in contests with multiple players, the second-mover advantage does not unravel into a last-mover advantage. Players want to be second, but not last. The comparative statics analysis shows how the strength of positive spillovers affects contestants’ equilibrium expenditures and payoffs, and aggregate rent dissipation.
摘要 本文对传统的寻租模型进行了扩展,考虑了竞争者的努力所产生的外部非生产性效应(即再分配效应)但内部生产性效应(即对其他竞争者的正溢出效应)。我们的研究结果表明,当参赛者依次行动时,对其他参赛者产生的正溢出效应可能会削弱甚至逆转先行者的优势。后发优势很有可能出现。值得注意的是,在有多个参与者的竞争中,后发者优势并不会演变成后发者优势。竞争者希望成为第二,但不希望成为最后。比较静态分析表明了正溢出效应的强度如何影响竞争者的均衡支出和报酬以及总租金耗散。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Asian Journal of Law and Economics
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