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Systemic Risk Mitigation in Financial Networks 金融网络中的系统性风险缓解
Pub Date : 2015-06-23 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2293426
A. Capponi, Peng Chen
We propose a multi-period clearing framework, where the level of systemic risk is mitigated through the provision of liquidity assistance. The interbank liability network evolves stochastically over time, and assets of defaulted banks are sold to qualified banks within the network through a first-price sealed-bid auction. We find that policies targeting systemically important banks are more effective in core-periphery network structures, whereas those maximizing the total liquidity in the system are preferred in random network configurations. We assess sensitivity of systemic risk to variations in interbank liabilities as well as to their correlation structure.
我们提出了一个多期清算框架,通过提供流动性援助来降低系统性风险水平。银行间负债网络随时间随机演变,违约银行的资产通过首价密封拍卖出售给网络内的合格银行。我们发现,针对系统重要性银行的政策在核心-外围网络结构中更为有效,而在随机网络配置中,那些使系统总流动性最大化的政策更受青睐。我们评估了系统性风险对银行间负债变化及其相关结构的敏感性。
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引用次数: 81
Bank Risk Behavior and Connectedness in EMU Countries 欧洲货币联盟国家银行风险行为与连通性
Pub Date : 2015-06-18 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2620204
M. Singh, Marta Gómez-Puig, S. Sosvilla‐Rivero
Given the structural differences in banking sector and financial regulation at country level in European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), this paper tries to estimate the banking sector risk behavior at country level. Based on contingent claim literature, it computes “Distance-to-default (DtD)” at bank level and analyzes the aggregate series at country level for a representative set of banks over the period 2004-Q4 to 2013-Q2. The indices provide an intuitive, forward-looking and timely risk measure having strong correlations with national/regional market sentiment indicators. An underlying trend exists, but causality tests suggest no systemic component. Cross-sectional differences in DtD suggests fragility in EMU countries 12–18 months prior to the crisis and better predictive ability than the regulatory index based on large and complex banking institutions at European level. Furthermore, we explore the reasons for this divergence using VAR estimates.
鉴于欧洲经济货币联盟(EMU)国家层面的银行业和金融监管的结构性差异,本文试图对国家层面的银行业风险行为进行估计。基于或有债权文献,它计算了银行层面的“违约距离(DtD)”,并分析了2004-Q4至2013-Q2期间一组有代表性的银行在国家层面的总序列。这些指数提供了一种直观、前瞻性和及时的风险衡量,与国家/地区市场情绪指标有很强的相关性。潜在的趋势是存在的,但因果关系测试表明没有系统性因素。DtD的横断面差异表明,欧洲货币联盟国家在危机发生前12-18个月存在脆弱性,其预测能力优于基于欧洲大型复杂银行机构的监管指数。此外,我们使用VAR估计探讨了这种差异的原因。
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引用次数: 20
The Crisis of Economic Governance in the European Union 欧盟的经济治理危机
Pub Date : 2015-06-16 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2670556
Ernesto Longobardi
This paper deals with the origin and the evolution of the European system of fiscal rules and discusses the perspectives for future developments. The early debate about the design of establishing a monetary union in a not optimal currency area, with decentralized fiscal policies, is reconsidered. The main developments of the European rulesDbased fiscal governance are discussed, starting with the Maastricht Treaty and going through the institution and the evolution of the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP). After drawing a brief outline of the system of fiscal rules in force at present, the key issue of the estimation of potential output is considered. The shortcomings of the estimation practices are, to a large extent, responsible for the inadequate results produced by the shift from nominal to structural targets, which was the main aim of the SGP reforms. The paper concludes sketching the debate on the reform of the European economic governance.
本文论述了欧洲财政规则体系的起源和演变,并讨论了未来发展的前景。关于在非最优货币区建立货币联盟的设计,以及分散财政政策的早期辩论,被重新考虑。本文讨论了欧洲基于规则的财政治理的主要发展,从马斯特里赫特条约开始,通过稳定与增长公约(SGP)的制度和演变。在简要概述了目前有效的财政规则体系之后,考虑了估计潜在产出的关键问题。估计方法的缺点在很大程度上是造成从名义目标转向结构性目标所产生的不充分结果的原因,而结构性目标正是特别方案改革的主要目的。文章最后概述了关于欧洲经济治理改革的争论。
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引用次数: 0
The Regulation of Financial Derivatives: An Agent-Based Model Approach. 金融衍生品监管:基于主体的模型方法。
Pub Date : 2015-05-28 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.2610681
Inna Krachkovskaya
In 2007-08, the world experienced the greatest financial crisis since 1929, which turned – in the following years – in one of the deepest and most prolonged periods of economic stagnation of modern history. While there were multiple conditions that originated the so-called Great Financial Crisis, a general consensus emerged that financial derivatives played an important role in the outbreak of the crisis and in posing a credible threat that the entire global financial system could melt down. As a reaction, several countries in the world and international organizations agreed on a policy response to reformulate the global architecture for the regulation of the financial system, including the financial derivatives industry. Yet, the fundamental question of whether the contemporary system of derivatives regulation can effectively shield the financial system from sources of systemic risk is still undecided, for reasons that especially relate to the complexity of the networked structure of the financial derivatives industry. As a way to contribute to tackle this issue, this work aims to investigate whether an important component part of the present system of financial derivatives regulation – namely, Central Counterparts (CCPs) Clearing Houses – provide a more resilient financial system. The research question is addressed through a simulation approach based on an agent-based modeling of the financial derivatives industry. The results of the simulation show that the introduction of a CCP improves the resilience of the simulated financial derivatives industry, although it does not completely shield the financial system from disruptions that may especially depend from the degree of interconnectedness of financial operators and the magnitude of defaults. In sum, this work offers some methodological guidance for enriching the repertoire of tools at disposal of financial regulatory authorities in anticipating the consequences of interventions in the financial industry.
2007年至2008年,世界经历了1929年以来最严重的金融危机,在随后的几年里,这场危机演变成了现代历史上最深刻、最持久的经济停滞时期之一。虽然引发所谓的大金融危机有多种条件,但普遍的共识是,金融衍生品在危机爆发中发挥了重要作用,并构成了整个全球金融体系可能崩溃的可信威胁。作为一种反应,世界上几个国家和国际组织商定了一项政策回应,以重新制定金融体系监管的全球架构,包括金融衍生品行业。然而,由于金融衍生品行业网络结构的复杂性,当代衍生品监管体系是否能够有效地保护金融体系免受系统性风险来源的影响这一根本问题仍未确定。作为解决这一问题的一种方式,本工作旨在调查当前金融衍生品监管体系的一个重要组成部分——即中央对手(ccp)清算所——是否提供了一个更具弹性的金融体系。研究问题是通过基于代理的金融衍生品行业建模的仿真方法来解决的。模拟结果表明,CCP的引入提高了模拟金融衍生品行业的弹性,尽管它并不能完全保护金融体系免受干扰,这种干扰可能特别取决于金融运营商的互联程度和违约的程度。总而言之,这项工作为丰富金融监管当局在预测金融行业干预后果时可以使用的工具库提供了一些方法指导。
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引用次数: 0
On Regulatory Responses to the Recent Crisis: An Assessment of the Basel Market Risk Framework and the Volcker Rule 对最近危机的监管反应:对巴塞尔市场风险框架和沃尔克规则的评估
Pub Date : 2015-05-01 DOI: 10.1111/fmii.12025
G. J. Alexander, Alexandre M. Baptista, Shu Yan
Banks around the world suffered huge trading losses in the recent crisis. In response, the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (2011a) provides a revised framework to determine the minimum capital requirements for their trading portfolios. Moreover, the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act (2010) imposes certain restrictions on the composition of the trading portfolios of U.S. banks through the ‘Volcker Rule.’ Our paper assesses the effectiveness of the Basel framework and the Volcker Rule in preventing banks from taking substantive tail risk in their trading portfolios without capital requirement penalties. We find that the Basel framework is ineffective in preventing banks from doing so, but that the Volcker Rule is beneficial in that it partially mitigates this ineffectiveness. We also suggest two alternatives to the Basel framework and discuss the impact of the Volcker Rule if either one of them is adopted.
世界各地的银行在最近的危机中遭受了巨大的交易损失。作为回应,巴塞尔银行监管委员会(2011)提供了一个修订框架,以确定其交易组合的最低资本要求。此外,多德-弗兰克华尔街改革和消费者保护法案(2010)通过“沃尔克规则”对美国银行的交易组合构成进行了一定的限制。我们的论文评估了巴塞尔框架和沃尔克规则在防止银行在没有资本要求处罚的情况下在其交易组合中承担实质性尾部风险方面的有效性。我们发现,巴塞尔框架在阻止银行这样做方面是无效的,但沃尔克规则是有益的,因为它在一定程度上减轻了这种无效性。我们还提出了巴塞尔框架的两种替代方案,并讨论了如果采用其中任何一种,沃尔克规则的影响。
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引用次数: 5
Amortization Requirements and Household Indebtedness: An Application to Swedish- Style Mortgages 摊销要求与家庭负债:瑞典式抵押贷款的应用
Pub Date : 2015-04-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2635373
Isaiah Hull
Since the mid-1990s, many OECD countries have experienced a substantial increase in household indebtedness. Sweden, in particular, has seen indebtedness rise from 90% of disposable income in 1995 to 179% in 2015. The Swedish Financial Supervisory Authority (FSA) has identified mortgage amortization requirements as a potential instrument for reducing indebtedness; and has drafted guidelines that will intensify the rate and duration of amortization. In this paper, I characterize Swedish-style mortgage contracts, which differ substantially from U.S.-style contracts. I then evaluate the policy changes in an incomplete markets model with three types of debt and a novel mortgage contract specification that is calibrated to match Swedish micro and macro data. I find that intensifying the rate and duration of amortization is largely ineffective at reducing indebtedness in a realistically-calibrated model. In the absence of tight restrictions on the maximum debt-service-to-income ratio or implausibly large refinancing costs, the policy impact is small in aggregate, over the lifecycle, and across employment statuses.
自1990年代中期以来,许多经合组织国家的家庭负债大幅增加。尤其是瑞典,其债务占可支配收入的比例从1995年的90%上升到2015年的179%。瑞典金融监管局(FSA)已确定抵押贷款摊销要求作为减少负债的潜在工具;并起草了加强摊销率和期限的指导方针。在本文中,我描述了瑞典式抵押贷款合同,它与美式合同有很大的不同。然后,我用三种类型的债务和一种新的抵押贷款合同规范来评估不完全市场模型中的政策变化,该模型经过校准以匹配瑞典的微观和宏观数据。我发现,在一个现实校准的模型中,提高摊销率和期限在减少债务方面基本上是无效的。在对最高偿债收入比没有严格限制或再融资成本高得令人难以置信的情况下,在整个生命周期和就业状态中,政策的总体影响很小。
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引用次数: 61
Bank Regulation When Both Deposit Rate Control and Capital Requirements are Socially Costly 当存款利率控制和资本要求都具有社会成本时的银行监管
Pub Date : 2015-02-21 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2685643
C. Nielsen, G. Weinrich
We provide a welfare comparison of the two types of banking regulation commonly used to address moral hazard problems, deposit rate ceilings and minimum capital requirements. It is well understood that interference with the price mechanism may lead to inefficiencies -- in the case of a deposit rate ceiling, the expected consequence is financial repression and possibly migration of depositors to unregulated financial institutions. As was already pointed out by Besanko and Thakor (1992), minimum capital requirements are, however, likely to have similar effects, since banks will pass the costs of this regulation on to depositors in the form of lower interest rates. Possibly for this reason there seem to be no theoretical studies supporting the reforms in the 80's and 90's, which saw deposit rate ceilings being replaced by minimum capital requirements. Either the two instruments are considered for all practical purposes equivalent or the conclusion is in favor of deposit regulation. In our model, while both types of regulation may depress deposit rates, there is a real trade-off between the two: capital regulation is costly because the opportunity costs of capital is higher than the return from normal banking activities while deposit rate ceilings may result in an inefficiently high number of banks. We show that, depending on the opportunity costs of banking capital and on the severity of the moral hazard problem they seek to address, each of the two regulatory instruments may welfare dominate the other.
我们对通常用于解决道德风险问题、存款利率上限和最低资本要求的两类银行监管进行了福利比较。众所周知,对价格机制的干预可能导致效率低下——在设定存款利率上限的情况下,预期的后果是金融抑制,并可能导致储户向不受监管的金融机构迁移。正如Besanko和Thakor(1992)已经指出的那样,最低资本要求可能会产生类似的效果,因为银行将以较低利率的形式将这种监管的成本转嫁给储户。可能出于这个原因,似乎没有理论研究支持80年代和90年代的改革,当时存款利率上限被最低资本要求所取代。要么这两种工具被认为在所有实际目的上是等同的,要么结论是支持存款监管。在我们的模型中,虽然两种类型的监管都可能降低存款利率,但两者之间确实存在权衡:资本监管成本高昂,因为资本的机会成本高于正常银行活动的回报,而存款利率上限可能导致银行数量低下。我们表明,根据银行资本的机会成本和他们寻求解决的道德风险问题的严重程度,这两种监管工具中的每一种都可能福利支配对方。
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引用次数: 2
Which Financial Stocks Did Short Sellers Target in the Subprime Crisis? 次贷危机中卖空者瞄准了哪些金融股?
Pub Date : 2015-02-13 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2570847
I. Hasan, Nadia Massoud, A. Saunders, Keke Song
Tracing the SEC ban on the short selling of financial stocks in September 2008, this paper investigates whether such selling activity before the 2008 short ban reflected financial companies’ risk exposures in the subprime crisis. The evidence suggests that short sellers sold short stocks that had the greatest asset and insolvency risk exposures, and that the short selling of financial firms’ stocks was not significantly greater than that of non-financial firms. When the short ban was in effect, the market quality of financial stocks without subprime asset exposure had deteriorated to a larger degree than that of financial companies with subprime asset exposure. The findings imply that such a regulation may mute the market disciplining effects of investors and may also serve as a counterweight to any perceived macro or systemic risk reduction benefits resulting from such a ban.
本文以2008年9月美国证券交易委员会(SEC)禁止卖空金融类股票为线索,考察2008年卖空禁令前的卖空行为是否反映了金融公司在次贷危机中的风险敞口。证据表明,卖空者卖空资产和破产风险敞口最大的股票,金融公司股票的卖空量并不显著大于非金融公司股票。当卖空禁令生效时,没有次级资产敞口的金融股的市场质量比有次级资产敞口的金融公司的市场质量恶化程度更大。研究结果表明,这样的监管可能会削弱投资者的市场纪律效应,也可能抵消这种禁令所带来的任何宏观或系统性风险降低效益。
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引用次数: 0
Evidence on Contagion in Earnings Management 关于盈余管理传染的证据
Pub Date : 2015-02-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2562751
Simi Kedia, Kevin Koh, Shivaram Rajgopal
ABSTRACT: We examine contagion in earnings management using 2,376 restatements announced during the years 1997–2008. Controlling for industry and firm characteristics, firms are more likely to begi...
摘要:本文利用1997-2008年间公布的2376份会计重述报告,研究了盈余管理的传染效应。控制行业和企业特征,企业更有可能开始……
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引用次数: 144
Connecting the Dots: Econometric Methods for Uncovering Networks with an Application to the Australian Financial Institutions 连接点:揭示网络的计量经济学方法与澳大利亚金融机构的应用
Pub Date : 2015-01-29 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2560594
M. Anufriev, V. Panchenko
This paper connects variance-covariance estimation methods, Gaussian graph- ical models, and the growing literature on economic and nancial networks. We construct the network using the concept of partial correlations which captures direct linear depen- dence between any two entities, conditional on dependence between all other entities. We relate the centrality measures of this network to shock propagation. The methodology is applied to construct the perceived network of the publicly traded Australian banks and their connections to the domestic nancial sector, real economy, and international mar- kets. We nd strong links between the big four Australian banks, the nancial services sector and the other sectors of the economy and determine which entities play a central role in transmitting and absorbing the shocks.
本文将方差-协方差估计方法、高斯图模型和越来越多的关于经济和金融网络的文献联系起来。我们使用部分相关的概念来构建网络,它捕获任何两个实体之间的直接线性依赖关系,条件是所有其他实体之间的依赖关系。我们将该网络的中心性度量与冲击传播联系起来。该方法用于构建澳大利亚上市银行的感知网络及其与国内金融部门、实体经济和国际市场的联系。我们发现澳大利亚四大银行、金融服务部门和其他经济部门之间的紧密联系,并确定哪些实体在传导和吸收冲击方面发挥了核心作用。
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引用次数: 48
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Econometric Modeling: Financial Markets Regulation eJournal
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