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Quantum and tempo effects of changes during the demographic transition: classification of world sub-regions and selected countries 人口转型期间变化的数量和速度效应:世界分区域和选定国家的分类
IF 0.6 Q3 GEOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2020-03-27 DOI: 10.14712/23361980.2020.3
M. Mustafina
The development patterns of both historical and contemporary demographic transitions are essential in understanding the outcomes of age structure changes among the countries. Existing literature analyzing demographic transition as a precursor to population ageing does not classify countries or regions worldwide by the scale and dynamics of those processes. The aim of this paper is to identify and describe the differentiation of quantum and tempo effects of changes taking place during the demographic transition through classification of sub-regions and selected countries worldwide. The results of this research, based on the historical vital statistics starting from as far as 1736 and future projections until 2100, feature how sub-regions and selected countries in the world are differentiated in terms of the scale and dynamics of the demographic transition process. The analysis reveals the fact that majority of sub-regions in the world tend(ed) to undergo long transitions lasting over 70 years, though contemporary demographic transitions demonstrate higher intensity and higher maximal rates of natural increase. African sub-regions are expected to experience relatively long processes of declining birth and death rates and estimated to complete their demographic transition in 90 years on average. The fastest processes, however, are observed in South America and Eastern Asia where some countries like China, for instance, completed their transitions in just 50 years. The scale and dynamics of demographic transition processes can serve as the ground for further research of challenges and development opportunities resulting from ageing societies during consequent post-transitional stages.
历史和当代人口转变的发展模式对于理解各国年龄结构变化的结果至关重要。现有的文献分析人口转型是人口老龄化的前兆,并没有根据这些过程的规模和动态对世界各国或地区进行分类。本文的目的是通过对全球分区域和选定国家的分类,确定和描述人口转型期间发生的变化的量子和速度效应的差异。本研究的结果基于从1736年开始的历史人口统计数据和到2100年的未来预测,展示了世界上分区域和选定国家在人口转型过程的规模和动态方面的差异。分析表明,世界上大多数分区域倾向于经历持续70年以上的长期转变,尽管当代人口转变表现出更高的强度和更高的最大自然增长率。预计非洲分区域将经历相对较长的出生率和死亡率下降过程,估计平均在90年内完成其人口转型。然而,南美洲和东亚的转型速度最快,例如中国等一些国家仅用了50年就完成了转型。人口过渡过程的规模和动态可以作为进一步研究老龄化社会在随后的过渡后阶段所产生的挑战和发展机会的基础。
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引用次数: 0
The role of regional products in preserving traditional farming landscapes in the context of development of peripheral regions – Lubelskie Province, Eastern Poland 在周边地区发展的背景下,区域产品在保护传统农业景观中的作用-波兰东部卢贝尔斯基省
IF 0.6 Q3 GEOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2020-03-13 DOI: 10.14712/23361980.2020.1
E. Skowronek, T. Brzezińska-Wójcik, A. Stasiak, Andrzej Tucki
The article presents the functioning of traditional farming landscapes in Eastern Poland, using the example of Lubelskie Province. This peripheral region, situated on the border of the European Union, demonstrates how the development of tourism, food tourism in particular, based on local crops and regional foodstuffs, helps to protect and promote local heritage and, at the same time, gain additional financial resources for its inhabitants. With a view to the aims set in the paper, the authors investigated the perception of the Lublin Region’s image as regards the predominant features of the natural and socio-economic environment. Moreover, they analysed the recognisability of the regional products and dishes among people from outside the province, who have visited it for tourism purposes. The research material was collected during international and Polish tourism fairs held in five largest Polish cities. The researchers collected 493 questionnaires, 220 of which underwent a detailed analysis. The study shows that the leading functions of Lubelskie Province include agriculture and tourism. The particular form of tourism that should be developed in the region is food tourism and related products due to the natural features and landscape assets. The conclusions drawn from the respondents’ answers as well as the query of strategic documents and promotional campaigns allowed the researchers to outline further directions as regards using traditional farming landscapes with the aim of development of the region. It appears that centuries-old forms of farming and methods of food production, resulting from the region’s history and natural conditions, may determine recognisability, build a brand based on the place of origin concept, and influence the socio-economic situation of the area, preserving traditional landscapes at the same time.
本文以波兰东部的鲁贝尔斯基省为例,介绍了波兰东部传统农业景观的功能。这个边缘地区位于欧盟边界,展示了旅游业,特别是食品旅游业的发展,以当地作物和地区食品为基础,如何帮助保护和促进当地遗产,同时为其居民获得额外的财政资源。鉴于在论文中设定的目标,作者调查了卢布林地区的形象的感知,关于自然和社会经济环境的主要特征。此外,他们还分析了以旅游为目的来新疆旅游的外地人对当地产品和菜肴的认可度。研究资料是在波兰五大城市举行的国际和波兰旅游博览会期间收集的。研究人员收集了493份问卷,其中220份进行了详细分析。研究表明,卢别尔斯基省的主导功能包括农业和旅游业。由于该地区的自然特征和景观资产,该地区特别应该发展的旅游形式是食品旅游及其相关产品。从受访者的回答中得出的结论,以及对战略文件和促销活动的查询,使研究人员能够勾勒出利用传统农业景观促进该地区发展的进一步方向。看来,由于该地区的历史和自然条件而形成的数百年的农业形式和粮食生产方法可能决定了可识别性,建立了基于原产地概念的品牌,并影响了该地区的社会经济状况,同时保留了传统景观。
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引用次数: 7
Morphostratigraphy of river terraces in the Eger valley (Czechia) focused on the Smrčiny Mountains, the Chebská pánev Basin and the Sokolovská pánev Basin
IF 0.6 Q3 GEOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2019-12-20 DOI: 10.14712/23361980.2019.21
Břetislav Balatka, J. Kalvoda, Tereza Steklá, P. Štěpančíková
The Eger (Ohře) River terraces originated in varied morphotectonic and climate-morphogenetic conditions that existed during the late Cenozoic evolution of the western part of the Bohemian Massif. In the area between the Smrčiny Mountains and the Sokolovská pánev Basin, these levels of the Eger River terrace system were identified (Table 1): the Pliocene terrace niveau B, the Cheb terrace (I), the Hradiště terrace (II), the Chvoječná terrace (III), Jindřichov terrace (IV), Nebanice terrace (V), Chocovice terrace (VI), Chotíkov Terrace (VII) and the recent flood plain (N). It was determined to be a morphostratigraphical system of 7 river terraces of Quaternary age. Older levels of fluvial sediments, occupying a still higher morphological position in the area between the Smrčiny Mountains and the Sokolovská pánev Basin, have been classified to the Pliocene. A comparison of terrace flights in the longitudinal profile of the Eger River between the Smrčiny Mountains and the Doupovské hory Mountains indicated that the Cheb terrace (I) in the Smrčiny Mountains is tectonically uplifted around 10 m in comparison with its level in the Chebská pánev Basin. In the Chlumský práh Horst area, the oldest Pleistocene terraces, which originated during the Tiglian stage, were uplifted by approximately 15 m. The Chebská pánev Basin originated at the intersection of the Eger rift and the Cheb-Domažlice fault zone and its river network is incised ca 40 m into the planation surfaces of the sedimentary basin. Both volcanic processes and frequent seismic activity in the region are associated with the Late Cenozoic tectonic movements. According to the current stratigraphical scheme of the Quaternary, the Eger terrace system was formed mostly by the Pleistocene (Table 2) during the Tiglian to the Weichselian stages.
Eger (Ohře)河阶地形成于波西米亚地块西部晚新生代演化过程中存在的多种形态构造和气候形成条件下。在smr宁山脉和sokolovsk pánev盆地之间的区域,确定了埃格尔河阶地系统的几个层次(表1):上新世阶地niveau B、Cheb阶地(I)、Hradiště阶地(II)、chvoje n阶地(III)、Jindřichov阶地(IV)、Nebanice阶地(V)、Chocovice阶地(VI)、Chotíkov阶地(VII)和最近的洪积平原(N)。确定了它是一个由7个第四纪河流阶地组成的形态地层系统。在smriny山脉和sokolovsk pánev盆地之间的地区,河流沉积物的较老水平占据了更高的形态位置,被划分为上新世。通过对切布斯克 山脉和杜波夫斯科什霍里山脉之间埃格尔河纵剖面的阶地高度的比较,表明与切布斯克 pánev盆地相比,切布斯克山脉的切布阶地(I)在构造上抬升了约10 m。在Chlumský práh Horst地区,最古老的更新世阶地(起源于Tiglian阶段)抬升了约15 m。切夫斯克 pánev盆地发源于埃格尔裂谷与Cheb-Domažlice断裂带的交汇处,其河网向沉积盆地的平面层切入约40 m。该地区的火山活动和频繁的地震活动都与晚新生代的构造运动有关。根据目前第四纪地层方案,埃格尔阶地体系主要形成于蒂格利安—魏奇塞利安时期的更新世(表2)。
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引用次数: 3
Quantitative mapping of desertification risk using the modified MEDALUS model: a case study in the Mazayejan Plain, Southwest Iran 基于改进MEDALUS模型的荒漠化风险定量制图:以伊朗西南部Mazayejan平原为例
IF 0.6 Q3 GEOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2019-12-20 DOI: 10.14712/23361980.2019.20
R. Zakerinejad, M. Masoudi
This paper presents the Modified MEDALUS (MMEDALUS) approach, a quantitative assessment of desertification, in the case study area located in the Southern part of Iran. Six main factors of desertification including: soil, climate, plant cover, management, erosion state and ground water situation were considered for the model approach. Then several sub-factors determining the quality of each main factor were quantified according to their quality and weighted on a scale between 1.0 and 2.0. We used a Geographic Information System (GIS) software to analyze and prepare the spatial distribution of the factor layers. Subsequently, the final desertification hazard map was prepared by combining the different MEDALUS factors in Arc GIS 10.3 in order to define the final hazard classes on the basis of hazard scores based on the geometric mean of the main factors. The MEDALUS and MMEDALUS models show the “Desertification Potential” that in turn was validated with the current state of desertification observed in the field. The results show that the applied MMEDALUS approach yield significantly better results than the MEDALUS model in the study area. The results also show that the areas under severe and very severe hazard are the most extensive classes in the desertification map. Thus, we illustrate that most of the study area is sensitive to desertification. However, we highlight that management, climate and water table qualities were the most important indicators affecting the desertification processes, while soil quality seems to play a minor role in our study area.
本文以伊朗南部地区为例,介绍了一种基于改进MEDALUS (MMEDALUS)的荒漠化定量评价方法。模型方法考虑了土壤、气候、植被覆盖、管理、侵蚀状况和地下水状况6个主要影响因素。然后将决定各主因子质量的若干子因子按其质量进行量化,并按1.0 ~ 2.0的尺度进行加权。利用地理信息系统(GIS)软件对因子层的空间分布进行分析和编制。随后,结合Arc GIS 10.3中不同的MEDALUS因子,绘制最终的沙漠化危害图,并根据主要因子的几何平均值得出危害分值,确定最终的危害等级。MEDALUS和MMEDALUS模型显示的“荒漠化潜力”反过来又与实地观察到的荒漠化现状相验证。结果表明,在研究区,应用MMEDALUS方法的结果明显优于MEDALUS模型。结果还表明,严重和极严重危险区是沙漠化地图中最广泛的类别。因此,我们认为研究区大部分是沙漠化敏感区。然而,我们强调管理、气候和地下水位质量是影响沙漠化过程的最重要指标,而土壤质量似乎在我们的研究区域起次要作用。
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引用次数: 11
European imbalances and shifts of global value chains to the Central European periphery: role of institutions 欧洲失衡与全球价值链向中欧周边转移:制度的作用
IF 0.6 Q3 GEOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2019-12-19 DOI: 10.14712/23361980.2019.19
Pavel Hnát, Ondřej Sankot
This article deals with the topic of European imbalances. They are defined as large and persistent differences in the current account position of European countries, which are closely connected to the emergence of the financial crisis and the subsequent sovereign debt crisis in 2008. A build-up in current account deficits had been observed from the mid-1990s, namely in two peripheral regions of the EU. However, little attention was paid to the potential differences between the Southern and Central European peripheries of the EU. The emergence of large and persistent current account deficits in Southern Europe was accompanied by a significant shift in gains from global value chains. The aim of this paper is to evaluate the factors that co-determined the changes in the geographic structure of GVCs in Europe. These changes decreased GVC income in Southern Europe, increased it in Central Europe and contributed to the build-up of account imbalances in Southern Europe. Despite the fact that Central Europe was among the deficit regions in European imbalances, the four Central European countries substantially increased their gains from global value chains as well as GVC participation. The shift in GVC activity towards Central Europe between 1995 and 2011 was driven not only by total labour costs but also by better regulatory quality. At the same time, TNCs switching from Southern to Central Europe had to accept worse quality contract enforcement.
本文讨论的是欧洲失衡问题。它们被定义为欧洲国家经常账户状况的巨大而持久的差异,这与2008年金融危机和随后的主权债务危机的出现密切相关。从上世纪90年代中期开始,即在欧盟的两个外围地区,经常账户赤字出现了累积。然而,很少有人注意到欧盟南部和中欧外围国家之间的潜在差异。在南欧出现巨额且持续的经常账户赤字的同时,全球价值链的收益也发生了重大变化。本文的目的是评估共同决定欧洲全球价值链地理结构变化的因素。这些变化减少了南欧的全球价值链收入,增加了中欧的全球价值链收入,并助长了南欧账户失衡的积累。尽管中欧是欧洲失衡的逆差地区之一,但中欧四国从全球价值链和全球价值链参与中获得的收益大幅增加。1995年至2011年间,全球价值链活动向中欧的转移不仅受到总劳动力成本的推动,还受到监管质量提高的推动。与此同时,从南欧转到中欧的跨国公司不得不接受质量更差的合同执行。
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引用次数: 8
Effect of rural transport infrastructure on the intensification of purchased input use for major food crop production: the case of smallholder farmers in Horro Guduru Wollega Zone, Western Ethiopia 农村运输基础设施对主要粮食作物生产采购投入物使用集约化的影响:以埃塞俄比亚西部Horro Guduru Wollega地区小农为例
IF 0.6 Q3 GEOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2019-12-19 DOI: 10.14712/23361980.2019.15
Sileshi Tamene, Tebarek Megento
This paper examines the effect of rural transport on smallholder farmers’ purchased input use. A random sample of 500 respondents was selected and relevant data was collected. Descriptive, correlation, and regression statistics were used to analyze the data. The multiple linear regression analysis revealed that farmers’ purchased input use was found to be significantly and negatively related to distance to major market, distance to all weather road, distance to farm plot, transport cost, and size of land holding. In contrast, farmers’ purchased input use was found to be significantly and positively related to family size, off farm income, membership in a cooperative, being in Horro district, having animal cart, and access to good road. Further, the results of hierarchical multiple regression showed that approximately 82% of the total variation in purchased input use can be explained by the linear combination of all independent variables. Furthermore, the result showed that rural transport infrastructure-related variables, as a set, contributed 13.3% to the prediction of farmers’ purchased input use over and above the remaining predictors. The results suggest that improving the rural road infrastructure and access to rural transportation services is vital in encouraging farmers’ purchased
本文考察了农村交通运输对小农购买投入物使用的影响。随机抽取500名受访者,收集相关数据。采用描述性统计、相关统计和回归统计对数据进行分析。多元线性回归分析发现,农户购买投入物使用与主要市场距离、全天候道路距离、地块距离、运输成本和土地持有规模呈显著负相关。相比之下,农民购买投入物的使用与家庭规模、农场外收入、合作社成员资格、在Horro地区、拥有畜车和获得良好道路显著正相关。此外,层次多元回归的结果表明,大约82%的购买投入品使用总变化可以通过所有自变量的线性组合来解释。此外,结果表明,农村交通基础设施相关变量作为一个集合,对农民购买投入使用的预测贡献了13.3%,高于其他预测因子。结果表明,改善农村道路基础设施和农村交通服务的可及性对鼓励农民购买至关重要
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引用次数: 3
Economic impacts of landslides and floods on a road network 山体滑坡和洪水对道路网络的经济影响
IF 0.6 Q3 GEOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2019-12-18 DOI: 10.14712/23361980.2019.18
M. Winter, D. Peeling, D. Palmer, J. Peeling
Even in the absence of serious injuries and fatalities, landslide and flood events can have significant socio-economic impacts. These include the severance of access to and from relatively remote communities for services and markets for goods; employment, health and educational opportunities; and social activities. The economic impacts can be classified as: direct economic impacts, direct consequential economic impacts, and indirect consequential economic impacts. In addition, the vulnerability shadow cast can be extensive, and its geographical extent can be determined by the transport network rather than the relatively small footprint of the event itself. Using a number of debris flow events and a flood event in Scotland this paper places values on the economic impacts of landslides and floods. It also demonstrates the widespread impact of the events by means of the vulnerability shadow
即使没有造成严重伤亡,山体滑坡和洪水事件也会产生重大的社会经济影响。这些问题包括:无法进出相对偏远的社区获得服务和进入商品市场;就业、保健和教育机会;还有社会活动。经济影响可分为:直接经济影响、直接后果经济影响和间接后果经济影响。此外,脆弱性阴影可以是广泛的,其地理范围可以由交通网络决定,而不是由事件本身相对较小的足迹决定。本文利用苏格兰的一些泥石流事件和洪水事件,对滑坡和洪水的经济影响进行了评估。它还通过脆弱性阴影展示了事件的广泛影响
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引用次数: 19
Investigating the Geotouristic Risks of Spa Springs with Emphasis on Natural and Human Dangers in the Study Area between Sarein and Ardebil in the Northwest of Iran 伊朗西北部Sarein - Ardebil研究区温泉地质旅游风险调查——以自然和人为风险为重点
IF 0.6 Q3 GEOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2019-12-12 DOI: 10.14712/23361980.2019.17
M. Feyzolahpour, J. Einali, Hassan Gasemlu
Geotourism and geoparks provide good opportunities for rural development and reduce unemployment and migration. It attracts local communities for employment in geoparks and tourism marketing in the form of investments in ecotourism, rural tourism and health geotourism. Geotourism is closely related to the geology of treatment. One of these is the spa spring that has the therapeutic potential and plays a significant role in attracting domestic and foreign tourists. For this purpose the status of 11 hot springs in the geographical range between Ardabil city and Sarein city has been investigated in terms of parameters such as discharge, temperature, pH and anions and cations. However, this geographical area also has a number of natural and human hazards the most important of which is the occurrence of killing earthquakes. The earthquake of February 28, 1997 killed nearly 1000 people and destroyed many villages. The presence of spa springs on or near the faults and the establishment of recreational facilities in the area have threatened investment in the area. In this regard the status of clay, silt and sand percentage, Liquefaction Limit and Plasticity PI index in the study area were studied. It was observed that if in clay formations the amount of dough is about 40 to 50 percent and soil moisture reaches 25 to 35 percent there is a possibility of demolition of buildings and asphalt. According to the results of soil physics analysis, Sarein city is susceptible to soil infiltration and liquefaction during earthquake. In the final section the sanitary condition of the pools was investigated in terms of the possibility of dermatophyte fungi and 284 samples were examined. It was observed that due to the complete disinfection of pools with chlorine no dermatophytes were observed.
地质旅游和地质公园为农村发展提供了良好的机会,减少了失业和人口迁移。它以投资生态旅游、乡村旅游和健康地质旅游的形式吸引当地社区在地质公园就业和旅游营销。地质旅游与地质处理密切相关。其中之一是具有治疗潜力的温泉,在吸引国内外游客方面发挥着重要作用。为此,从流量、温度、pH值、阴离子和阳离子等参数方面对阿尔达比尔市和萨雷林市之间地理范围内11个温泉的状况进行了调查。然而,这个地理区域也有一些自然和人类的危害,其中最重要的是致命地震的发生。1997年2月28日的地震造成近1000人死亡,许多村庄被毁。断层上或断层附近温泉的存在以及该地区娱乐设施的建立已经威胁到该地区的投资。在此基础上,对研究区粘土、粉砂、砂土含量、液化极限和塑性PI指数进行了研究。据观察,如果在粘土地层中面团的含量约为40 ~ 50%,土壤水分达到25 ~ 35%,则建筑物和沥青有可能被拆除。根据土壤物理分析结果,萨林市在地震过程中容易发生土壤入渗和液化。在最后一节,就皮肤真菌的可能性调查了游泳池的卫生条件,并检查了284个样本。经氯消毒后,池内未见皮癣。
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引用次数: 0
The fertility revolution in Zimbabwe with special regards to proximate determinants of fertility 津巴布韦的生育率革命,特别是生育率的直接决定因素
IF 0.6 Q3 GEOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2019-12-09 DOI: 10.14712/23361980.2019.16
Collet Muza
The role of proximate determinants in moderating fertility decline is well documented in developing countries. In Zimbabwe, however, there is a limited understanding of the role of proximate determinants on fertility levels and trends. This study aimed to examine the role of proximate determinants of fertility (namely marriages, postpartum infecundity and contraception) using the Bongaarts proximate determinants model. The impact of these determinants is studied on a sample of married women aged 15–49 years’ and corresponding cross-sectional data obtained through the six consecutive Zimbabwe Demographic Health Surveys (ZDHSs) hold in 1988, 1994, 1999, 2005 and 2015. The results reveal that the overall fertility declined from 5.4, 3.8 and 4.0 children per woman observed among 1988, 1999 and 2015 ZDHSs, respectively. This change was caused by the contraceptive inhibitive effect, which correspondingly increased from 3.00 to 4.65 and 6.45 children per woman. The fertility stalling observed in 1999 and after that is caused by postpartum infecundity and marital fertility inhibition which decreased with time. Moreover, contraceptive inhibition effect increased with education, wealth quintiles, and urban residence. In contrast, marital and postpartum infecundity fertility inhibition effects inversely correlate with education, wealth quintiles, and the place of residence. Therefore, to foster further fertility decline to replacement level, policies should promote contraceptive adoption, more extended breastfeeding periods and delay entry into early marriages. Furthermore, women empowerment, especially the promotion of female education to higher education and female employment, could be useful tools to further fertility decline.
在发展中国家,直接决定因素在减缓生育率下降方面的作用已得到充分证明。然而,在津巴布韦,人们对生育率水平和趋势的直接决定因素的作用了解有限。本研究旨在使用Bongaarts近似决定因素模型来检验生育率(即婚姻、产后不孕和避孕)的近似决定因素的作用。这些决定因素的影响是通过1988年、1994年、1999年、2005年和2015年连续六次津巴布韦人口健康调查获得的15-49岁已婚妇女样本和相应的横断面数据进行研究的。结果显示,1988年、1999年和2015年,中国妇女平均生育率分别从5.4、3.8和4.0个子女下降。这种变化是由于避孕措施的抑制作用造成的,相应地,每个妇女从3.00个孩子增加到4.65个孩子和6.45个孩子。1999年及以后的生育停滞主要由产后不孕和婚姻生育抑制引起,随时间的推移而下降。此外,避孕抑制效应随教育程度、财富五分位数和城市居住而增加。相反,婚姻和产后不孕生育抑制效应与教育、财富五分位数和居住地呈负相关。因此,为了促进生育率进一步下降到更替水平,政策应促进采用避孕药具、延长母乳喂养期和推迟早婚。此外,赋予妇女权力,特别是促进妇女接受高等教育和就业,可能是进一步降低生育率的有用工具。
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引用次数: 0
Is the Second Demographic Transition a useful framework for understanding the spatial patterns of fertility change in Serbia at the beginning of the 21st century? 第二次人口转型是理解21世纪初塞尔维亚生育率变化的空间格局的有用框架吗?
IF 0.6 Q3 GEOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2019-09-20 DOI: 10.14712/23361980.2019.14
V. Nikitović, D. Arsenović, Aleksandar Sekulić, B. Bajat
Gaps in comprehension of demographic change in the region of ex-Yugoslavia after 1990, caused by a lack of reliable data series, frequent change of borders, and distinctive historical and cultural tradition in comparison to other post-communist societies, motivated us to contribute to the understanding of the spatial diffusion of recent profound fertility changes in South-Eastern Europe. We analysed changes in the spatial pattern and distribution of typical fertility indicators of the second demographic transition at the sub-national level in Serbia in order to find out whether these demographic shifts could be interpreted to be similar to those in Central and Eastern Europe. We found that differences in economic, historical, and cultural development between sub-regions of the country strongly affect spatial patterns of fertility change. Also, this paper suggests that the sub-regions forerunners of the first demographic transition could be considered as the cores of diffusion for the second demographic transition.
由于缺乏可靠的数据序列、边界频繁变化以及与其他后共产主义社会相比具有独特的历史和文化传统,我们对1990年后前南斯拉夫地区人口变化的理解存在差距,这促使我们对东南欧最近深刻的生育率变化的空间扩散的理解做出贡献。我们分析了塞尔维亚次国家层面的第二次人口转型的空间格局和典型生育率指标的分布变化,以找出这些人口转变是否可以被解释为与中欧和东欧相似。我们发现,经济、历史和文化发展的差异对生育率变化的空间格局有着强烈的影响。第一次人口转型的先行者区域可以作为第二次人口转型的扩散核心。
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引用次数: 4
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AUC Geographica
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