We estimate the impact of increased policy uncertainty from Brexit on UK trade in services. We apply an uncertainty-augmented gravity equation to UK services trade with the European Union at the industry level from 2016:I to 2018:IV. By exploiting the variation in the probability of Brexit from prediction markets interacted with a new trade policy risk measure across service industries, we identify a significant negative impact of the threat of Brexit on trade values and participation. The increased probability of Brexit in this period lowered services exports by at least 20 log points. (JEL F13, F14, F15)
{"title":"Brexit Uncertainty and its (Dis)Service Effects","authors":"Saad Ahmad, N. Limão, Sarah Oliver, Serge Shikher","doi":"10.3386/w28053","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w28053","url":null,"abstract":"We estimate the impact of increased policy uncertainty from Brexit on UK trade in services. We apply an uncertainty-augmented gravity equation to UK services trade with the European Union at the industry level from 2016:I to 2018:IV. By exploiting the variation in the probability of Brexit from prediction markets interacted with a new trade policy risk measure across service industries, we identify a significant negative impact of the threat of Brexit on trade values and participation. The increased probability of Brexit in this period lowered services exports by at least 20 log points. (JEL F13, F14, F15)","PeriodicalId":426783,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Trade Policy (Topic)","volume":"11 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121778237","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Empirical estimates from various studies on impact assessment of free trade agreements show that there are limited economic gains from concluding such arrangements. It has been argued by trade negotiators of many countries that while some partners gain more from an agreement, others gain less or, even suffer from a rise in their current account deficits and overall economic losses. Even the Indian scenario is not an outlier in such a case. This question about unequal gains from an FTA has raised various policy concerns. We attempt to provide an answer to this debate by incorporating the role of the type of commodities that countries trade with each other. In an imperfectly competitive setup with three countries and two types of commodities viz. a final good and an intermediate input, our findings reveal that bilateral free trade in final goods is more welfare-enhancing for the member countries vis-à-vis bilateral free trade in intermediates. However, the former possibility is feasible only for a very small range of parametric values given the pre-requisites for ensuring the formation of an effective FTA. More specifically, we find that a horizontal FTA covering final goods becomes feasible only when the degree of market size asymmetry between the two partners is very less. On the contrary, when we emphasise on the role of vertical trade, i.e., where one of the FTA members exports intermediate inputs to the other, and imports the final good in return, we find that FTA is feasible only when the larger partner is an exporter of final goods and an importer of intermediate inputs, vis-à-vis the smaller partner. In such a case, the larger partner accrues higher gains from such a bilateral engagement. While capturing the role of tradable intermediates, we also show that in the presence of well-connected GVCs, RTAs actually become a less attractive option for enhancing trade and welfare of an economy.
{"title":"Gains from Free Trade Agreements: A Theoretical Analysis","authors":"Sugandha Huria","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3935210","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3935210","url":null,"abstract":"Empirical estimates from various studies on impact assessment of free trade agreements show that there are limited economic gains from concluding such arrangements. It has been argued by trade negotiators of many countries that while some partners gain more from an agreement, others gain less or, even suffer from a rise in their current account deficits and overall economic losses. Even the Indian scenario is not an outlier in such a case. This question about unequal gains from an FTA has raised various policy concerns. We attempt to provide an answer to this debate by incorporating the role of the type of commodities that countries trade with each other. In an imperfectly competitive setup with three countries and two types of commodities viz. a final good and an intermediate input, our findings reveal that bilateral free trade in final goods is more welfare-enhancing for the member countries vis-à-vis bilateral free trade in intermediates. However, the former possibility is feasible only for a very small range of parametric values given the pre-requisites for ensuring the formation of an effective FTA. More specifically, we find that a horizontal FTA covering final goods becomes feasible only when the degree of market size asymmetry between the two partners is very less. On the contrary, when we emphasise on the role of vertical trade, i.e., where one of the FTA members exports intermediate inputs to the other, and imports the final good in return, we find that FTA is feasible only when the larger partner is an exporter of final goods and an importer of intermediate inputs, vis-à-vis the smaller partner. In such a case, the larger partner accrues higher gains from such a bilateral engagement. While capturing the role of tradable intermediates, we also show that in the presence of well-connected GVCs, RTAs actually become a less attractive option for enhancing trade and welfare of an economy.","PeriodicalId":426783,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Trade Policy (Topic)","volume":"34 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-10-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116936421","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
China’s growing prominence as a trade superpower has placed competitive pressure on manufacturing industries in Brazil, while simultaneously bolstering demand for its commodities. We investigate the effects of this so-called manufactures-for-commodities boom on Brazilian birth outcomes from 2000-2010. Exploiting exogenous variation in patterns of trade growth with China across different regions within Brazil, we find that both import and export growth led to higher birth weights for babies, lower infant mortality, and lower birth rates. Additional evidence is consistent with income effects playing a role in explaining our results, while ruling out better provision of healthcare and changes to household composition as mechanisms. We also find that negative import shocks reduced fertility rates across all age groups for women, suggesting that selectivity in births induced by negative income shocks, combined with concentration of household resources on the children that are born led to better infant health outcomes. We also explore changes in trade-induced pollution levels and social assistance programs as a potential mechanism. Our findings indicate that increased import and export growth can improve infant health, highlighting another potential benefit from trade liberalization.
{"title":"Trade Boomers: Evidence from the Commodities-for-Manufactures Boom in Brazil","authors":"J. Chan, Ridwan Karim","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3680930","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3680930","url":null,"abstract":"China’s growing prominence as a trade superpower has placed competitive pressure on manufacturing industries in Brazil, while simultaneously bolstering demand for its commodities. We investigate the effects of this so-called manufactures-for-commodities boom on Brazilian birth outcomes from 2000-2010. Exploiting exogenous variation in patterns of trade growth with China across different regions within Brazil, we find that both import and export growth led to higher birth weights for babies, lower infant mortality, and lower birth rates. Additional evidence is consistent with income effects playing a role in explaining our results, while ruling out better provision of healthcare and changes to household composition as mechanisms. We also find that negative import shocks reduced fertility rates across all age groups for women, suggesting that selectivity in births induced by negative income shocks, combined with concentration of household resources on the children that are born led to better infant health outcomes. We also explore changes in trade-induced pollution levels and social assistance programs as a potential mechanism. Our findings indicate that increased import and export growth can improve infant health, highlighting another potential benefit from trade liberalization.","PeriodicalId":426783,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Trade Policy (Topic)","volume":"69 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-08-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126385515","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This research briefing provides an impartial assessment and summary in a research briefing on key issues as to digital trade and data equivalences post-Brexit for the External Affairs Committee of Senedd Cymru primarily from a legal perspective. The paper provides an overview of the concept of Digital Trade, of key negotiation objectives of the UK, EU and US as to Digital Trade, of best practice Digital Trade provisions in trade agreements, issues relating to data flows and equivalences and the parameters of how they relate to the digital economy of Wales. A summary of conclusions follows thereafter. The paper is based on materials published and available on 20 April 2020 only.
{"title":"Digital Trade and Data Equivalency: Research Briefing for the Welsh Parliament","authors":"E. Fahey","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3672237","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3672237","url":null,"abstract":"This research briefing provides an impartial assessment and summary in a research briefing on key issues as to digital trade and data equivalences post-Brexit for the External Affairs Committee of Senedd Cymru primarily from a legal perspective. The paper provides an overview of the concept of Digital Trade, of key negotiation objectives of the UK, EU and US as to Digital Trade, of best practice Digital Trade provisions in trade agreements, issues relating to data flows and equivalences and the parameters of how they relate to the digital economy of Wales. A summary of conclusions follows thereafter. The paper is based on materials published and available on 20 April 2020 only.","PeriodicalId":426783,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Trade Policy (Topic)","volume":"248 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123891667","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Despite the growing importance of non-tariff measures (NTMs) in trade policy, many common methods for estimating their costs exhibit significant challenges in terms of data requirements or the lack of specificity in the estimates they produce. I propose an extension to existing approaches that mitigates many of these limitations. Following earlier work by Fontagne et al. (2011), I estimate a measure of the aggregate nondiscriminatory trade costs present in each country. Then, in a novel second stage, I decompose the estimated trade costs into individual components such as the costs associated with specific NTMs. Additionally, the second stage allows for the identification and removal of non-cost factors that erroneously contributed to the aggregate cost estimates. The methodology provides a means by which to accurately estimate the effects of specific NTMs using widely available data and standard econometric techniques. I test the methodology using a typical gravity dataset and detailed NTM data. The results provide specific cost estimates for SPS measures and TBTs across many sectors and demonstrate that aggregate measures of non-discriminatory trade costs can significantly reflect non-cost factors.
{"title":"A Pragmatic Approach to Estimating Nondiscriminatory Non-tariff Trade Costs","authors":"Peter R. Herman","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3703002","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3703002","url":null,"abstract":"Despite the growing importance of non-tariff measures (NTMs) in trade policy, many common methods for estimating their costs exhibit significant challenges in terms of data requirements or the lack of specificity in the estimates they produce. I propose an extension to existing approaches that mitigates many of these limitations. Following earlier work by Fontagne et al. (2011), I estimate a measure of the aggregate nondiscriminatory trade costs present in each country. Then, in a novel second stage, I decompose the estimated trade costs into individual components such as the costs associated with specific NTMs. Additionally, the second stage allows for the identification and removal of non-cost factors that erroneously contributed to the aggregate cost estimates. The methodology provides a means by which to accurately estimate the effects of specific NTMs using widely available data and standard econometric techniques. I test the methodology using a typical gravity dataset and detailed NTM data. The results provide specific cost estimates for SPS measures and TBTs across many sectors and demonstrate that aggregate measures of non-discriminatory trade costs can significantly reflect non-cost factors.","PeriodicalId":426783,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Trade Policy (Topic)","volume":"83 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124111442","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The EU claims that it wishes to negotiate the future trading relationship with the UK on the basis of a ‘level playing field’. However, the EU’s published negotiating guidelines actually seek to impose on the UK a very unlevel playing field – in goods, services, capital markets and financial services, citizens’ rights, mobility of persons, fishing, state aid, taxation, standards and regulation, governance, dumping, and sequencing. This amounts to ‘cherry picking’ by the EU which UK negotiators should vigorously resist.
{"title":"Ensuring a Genuine Level Playing Field with the EU Post-Brexit","authors":"D. Blake","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3554357","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3554357","url":null,"abstract":"The EU claims that it wishes to negotiate the future trading relationship with the UK on the basis of a ‘level playing field’. However, the EU’s published negotiating guidelines actually seek to impose on the UK a very unlevel playing field – in goods, services, capital markets and financial services, citizens’ rights, mobility of persons, fishing, state aid, taxation, standards and regulation, governance, dumping, and sequencing. This amounts to ‘cherry picking’ by the EU which UK negotiators should vigorously resist.","PeriodicalId":426783,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Trade Policy (Topic)","volume":"62 11-12","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-03-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114048124","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Juan A. Máñez Castillejo, Consuelo Mínguez Bosque, M. E. Rochina Barrachina, Juan A. Sanchis Llopis
This work analyses the firms’ internationalization strategies of importing intermediates and exporting output, and the potential rewards of these activities in terms of total factor productivity (TFP), as a proxy for marginal costs, and markups. It further deepens into the study of the relationship between internationalization strategies and markups by disentangling whether it operates through affecting firms’ marginal costs and/or firms’ prices. The panel database employed in this paper is the Spanish Survey on Business Strategies (ESEE) for the period 2006- 2014. Results in the paper distinguish between SMEs and large firms and indicate that there is high persistence in the performance of these activities and in firms’ TFP and markups. In addition, the internationalization strategies are especially relevant for SMEs, as for this group we obtain rewards of the two activities in terms of both TFP and markups. Furthermore, we also find that these strategies allow SMEs to charge higher output prices.
{"title":"Trading Activities, Productivity and Markups: Evidence for Spanish Manufacturing","authors":"Juan A. Máñez Castillejo, Consuelo Mínguez Bosque, M. E. Rochina Barrachina, Juan A. Sanchis Llopis","doi":"10.1111/twec.12892","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.12892","url":null,"abstract":"This work analyses the firms’ internationalization strategies of importing intermediates and exporting output, and the potential rewards of these activities in terms of total factor productivity (TFP), as a proxy for marginal costs, and markups. It further deepens into the study of the relationship between internationalization strategies and markups by disentangling whether it operates through affecting firms’ marginal costs and/or firms’ prices. The panel database employed in this paper is the Spanish Survey on Business Strategies (ESEE) for the period 2006- 2014. Results in the paper distinguish between SMEs and large firms and indicate that there is high persistence in the performance of these activities and in firms’ TFP and markups. In addition, the internationalization strategies are especially relevant for SMEs, as for this group we obtain rewards of the two activities in terms of both TFP and markups. Furthermore, we also find that these strategies allow SMEs to charge higher output prices.","PeriodicalId":426783,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Trade Policy (Topic)","volume":"25 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114676462","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Jordan faces a number of pressing economic challenges: low growth, high unemployment, rising debt levels, and continued vulnerability to regional shocks. After a decade of fast economic growth, the economy decelerated with the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-09. From then onwards, various external shocks have thrown its economy out of balance and prolonged the slowdown for over a decade now. Conflicts in neighboring countries have led to reduced demand from key export markets and cut off important trade routes. Foreign direct investment, which averaged 12.7% of gross domestic product (GDP) between 2003-2009, fell to 5.1% of GDP over the 2010-2017. Regional conflicts have interrupted the supply of gas from Egypt – forcing Jordan to import oil at a time of record prices, had a negative impact on tourism, and also provoked a massive influx of migrants and refugees. Failure to cope with 50.4% population growth between led to nine consecutive years (2008-2017) of negative growth rates in GDP per capita, resulting in a cumulative loss of 14.0% over the past decade (2009-2018). Debt to GDP ratios, which were at 55% by the end of 2009, have skyrocketed to 94%.
Over the previous five years Jordan has undertaken a significant process of fiscal consolidation. The resulting reduction in fiscal impulse is among the largest registered in the aftermath of the Financial Crises, third only to Greece and Jamaica, and above Portugal and Spain. Higher taxes, lower subsidies, and sharp reductions in public investment have in turn furthered the recession. Within a context of lower aggregate demand, more consolidation is needed to bring debt-to-GDP ratios back to normal. The only way to break that vicious cycle and restart inclusive growth is by leveraging on foreign markets, developing new exports and attracting investments aimed at increasing competitiveness and strengthening the external sector. The theory of economic complexity provides a solid base to identify opportunities with high potential for export diversification. It allows to identify the existing set of knowhow, skills and capacities as signaled by the products and services that Jordan is able to make, and to define existing and latent areas of comparative advantage that can be developed by redeploying them. Service sectors have been growing in importance within the Jordanian economy and will surely play an important role in export diversification. In order to account for that, we have developed an adjusted framework that allows to identify the most attractive export sectors including services.
Based on that adjusted framework, this report identifies export themes with a high potential to drive growth in Jordan while supporting increasing wage levels and delivering positive spillovers to the non-tradable economy. The general goal is to provide a roadmap with key elements of a strategy for Jordan to return to a high economic growth path that is consistent with its emerging comparative advanta
{"title":"A Roadmap for Investment Promotion and Export Diversification: The Case of Jordan","authors":"M. Santos, R. Hausmann, A. Grisanti, P. Goldstein","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3808860","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3808860","url":null,"abstract":"Jordan faces a number of pressing economic challenges: low growth, high unemployment, rising debt levels, and continued vulnerability to regional shocks. After a decade of fast economic growth, the economy decelerated with the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-09. From then onwards, various external shocks have thrown its economy out of balance and prolonged the slowdown for over a decade now. Conflicts in neighboring countries have led to reduced demand from key export markets and cut off important trade routes. Foreign direct investment, which averaged 12.7% of gross domestic product (GDP) between 2003-2009, fell to 5.1% of GDP over the 2010-2017. Regional conflicts have interrupted the supply of gas from Egypt – forcing Jordan to import oil at a time of record prices, had a negative impact on tourism, and also provoked a massive influx of migrants and refugees. Failure to cope with 50.4% population growth between led to nine consecutive years (2008-2017) of negative growth rates in GDP per capita, resulting in a cumulative loss of 14.0% over the past decade (2009-2018). Debt to GDP ratios, which were at 55% by the end of 2009, have skyrocketed to 94%.<br><br>Over the previous five years Jordan has undertaken a significant process of fiscal consolidation. The resulting reduction in fiscal impulse is among the largest registered in the aftermath of the Financial Crises, third only to Greece and Jamaica, and above Portugal and Spain. Higher taxes, lower subsidies, and sharp reductions in public investment have in turn furthered the recession. Within a context of lower aggregate demand, more consolidation is needed to bring debt-to-GDP ratios back to normal. The only way to break that vicious cycle and restart inclusive growth is by leveraging on foreign markets, developing new exports and attracting investments aimed at increasing competitiveness and strengthening the external sector. The theory of economic complexity provides a solid base to identify opportunities with high potential for export diversification. It allows to identify the existing set of knowhow, skills and capacities as signaled by the products and services that Jordan is able to make, and to define existing and latent areas of comparative advantage that can be developed by redeploying them. Service sectors have been growing in importance within the Jordanian economy and will surely play an important role in export diversification. In order to account for that, we have developed an adjusted framework that allows to identify the most attractive export sectors including services.<br><br>Based on that adjusted framework, this report identifies export themes with a high potential to drive growth in Jordan while supporting increasing wage levels and delivering positive spillovers to the non-tradable economy. The general goal is to provide a roadmap with key elements of a strategy for Jordan to return to a high economic growth path that is consistent with its emerging comparative advanta","PeriodicalId":426783,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Trade Policy (Topic)","volume":"19 4 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123431629","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The paper examines the effects of United States productivity shock on components of Nigeria’s external sector. Using a structural Macroeconomic Model (SMM), the paper modelled Nigeria’s external sector by using ten behavioural equations and four identities. The SMM was simulated, using a 3% increase and 3% decrease in US productivity to elicit responses of Nigeria’s external sector components to this shock. Using quarterly data from 1981 to 2015, the paper found that both positive and negative US productivity shocks elicited symmetrical responses from Nigeria’s external sector components. Also, both positive and negative shocks had little effects on Nigeria’s current account balance, imports, exports, foreign direct investments and reserves. However, positive shocks increased remittances inflow, a depreciation in nominal exchange rates, a reduction in foreign portfolio investment position, and a reduction in foreign debt flows. The responses for a negative US productivity shock were just the direct opposite of a positive shock. Our finding shows that, the components of Nigeria’s external sector will respond in like manner to both positive and negative shocks to United States productivity.
{"title":"Do Productivity Shocks in the United States Matter to Components of Nigeria’s External Sector?","authors":"C. Onyimadu","doi":"10.4236/tel.2020.101012","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4236/tel.2020.101012","url":null,"abstract":"The \u0000paper examines the effects of United States productivity shock on components of \u0000Nigeria’s external sector. Using a structural Macroeconomic Model (SMM), the \u0000paper modelled Nigeria’s external sector by using ten behavioural equations and \u0000four identities. The SMM was simulated, using a 3% increase and 3% decrease in \u0000US productivity to elicit responses of Nigeria’s external sector components to \u0000this shock. Using quarterly data from 1981 to 2015, the paper found that both \u0000positive and negative US productivity shocks elicited symmetrical responses \u0000from Nigeria’s external sector components. Also, both positive and negative \u0000shocks had little effects on Nigeria’s current account balance, imports, \u0000exports, foreign direct investments and reserves. However, positive shocks \u0000increased remittances inflow, a depreciation in nominal exchange rates, a reduction \u0000in foreign portfolio investment position, and a reduction in foreign debt \u0000flows. The responses for a negative US productivity shock were just the direct opposite \u0000of a positive shock. Our finding shows that, the \u0000components of Nigeria’s external sector will respond in like manner to both \u0000positive and negative shocks to United States productivity.","PeriodicalId":426783,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Trade Policy (Topic)","volume":"56 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124530969","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This article investigates empirically whether the effect of tax reform (involving the progressive replacement of trade tax revenue with domestic tax revenue) in developing countries' tax revenue performance (measured by tax revenue‐to‐GDP ratio) depends on the degree of trade openness of these countries. The analysis has used an unbalanced panel data set of 95 developing countries over the period 1981–2015 and the two‐system GMM approach. Results suggest that tax reform is positively and significantly associated with tax revenue performance in developing countries, with the magnitude of this positive effect increasing as countries experience a higher development level. Additionally, and more importantly, countries that further open up their economies to international trade enjoy a higher positive effect of tax reform on tax revenue than countries that experience a lower degree of trade openness. Therefore, these findings should help dissipate the concerns of policymakers in developing countries that greater openness to international trade would further erode their tax revenue, including by lowering their international trade tax revenue. In fact, the implementation of an appropriate tax reform in the context of greater trade openness would generate higher tax revenue, while concurrently allowing countries to reap the well‐known benefits of international trade.
{"title":"Trade Openness, Tax Reform and Tax Revenue in Developing Countries","authors":"S. Gnangnon, J. Brun","doi":"10.1111/twec.12858","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.12858","url":null,"abstract":"This article investigates empirically whether the effect of tax reform (involving the progressive replacement of trade tax revenue with domestic tax revenue) in developing countries' tax revenue performance (measured by tax revenue‐to‐GDP ratio) depends on the degree of trade openness of these countries. The analysis has used an unbalanced panel data set of 95 developing countries over the period 1981–2015 and the two‐system GMM approach. Results suggest that tax reform is positively and significantly associated with tax revenue performance in developing countries, with the magnitude of this positive effect increasing as countries experience a higher development level. Additionally, and more importantly, countries that further open up their economies to international trade enjoy a higher positive effect of tax reform on tax revenue than countries that experience a lower degree of trade openness. Therefore, these findings should help dissipate the concerns of policymakers in developing countries that greater openness to international trade would further erode their tax revenue, including by lowering their international trade tax revenue. In fact, the implementation of an appropriate tax reform in the context of greater trade openness would generate higher tax revenue, while concurrently allowing countries to reap the well‐known benefits of international trade.","PeriodicalId":426783,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Trade Policy (Topic)","volume":"14 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133609694","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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