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Portfolio Diversification Benefits in Southeast Asian Stock Markets for Turkish Investors 投资组合多元化对土耳其投资者在东南亚股市的好处
IF 0.8 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2020-12-14 DOI: 10.22452/mjes.vol57no2.6
Souhaila Guedira, M. Ariff
This study is a pioneering attempt at investigating portfolio diversification benefits available to the Turkish conventional and Shari’ah-compliant investors in the Southeast Asian conventional and Islamic stock markets at different investment horizons. We use multivariate-generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (MGARCH-DCC) and wavelet approaches. The results suggest that the Malaysian stock market offers substantial diversification benefits for the Turkish conventional and Islamic investors, especially for the short-run investment horizons up to 16 days, as well as for long-term investment periods exceeding 128 days. In addition, Turkish conventional investors could also consider investing in Thailand Islamic equities in short-run holding periods up to 16 days. As for the medium investment horizons from 16 to 128 days, it is advisable for the Turkish investors to avoid investing in all the equities because of very low diversification benefits.
这项研究是一项开创性的尝试,旨在调查土耳其传统投资者和符合伊斯兰教的投资者在东南亚传统股票市场和伊斯兰股票市场的不同投资领域所能获得的投资组合多元化收益。我们使用多元广义自回归条件异方差(MGARCH-DCC)和小波方法。研究结果表明,马来西亚股市为土耳其传统投资者和伊斯兰投资者提供了巨大的多元化优势,尤其是对于长达16天的短期投资期限,以及超过128天的长期投资期限。此外,土耳其传统投资者也可以考虑在长达16天的短期持有期内投资泰国伊斯兰股票。至于16至128天的中期投资期限,土耳其投资者最好避免投资所有股票,因为多元化收益非常低。
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引用次数: 1
An Augmented Measurement of the Housing Affordability Cycles in Malaysia 马来西亚住房可负担性周期的扩充测量
IF 0.8 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2020-06-14 DOI: 10.22452/mjes.vol57no1.7
Zhi-Cheng Voon, C. Hooy, Chin-Hong Puah
Malaysia’s property market has been going through a difficult phase as the supply of property stocks are excessive with the demand unable to catch up, and hence, many unsold units remaining on the market. The primary aim of this paper is to develop an index-based housing affordability indicator known as the housing affordability leading index (HALI), which is based on the indicator compilation approach founded by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). The time-varying Markov switching (TVMS) model is then employed to assess the transition probabilities of the constructed housing affordability indicator. The transition probabilities estimate the prospects of the housing affordability condition and how long it will stay in that particular condition before having any major turnover. As the data employed was monthly data from year 2000 to year 2015, the constructed HALI successfully reflects the prior movements of the non-index housing affordability indicator price to income ratios (PIR). The empirical results show that the HALI has an average leading period of 9.5 months when taking the PIR as a benchmark of coincidence indicator for housing affordability movement.
马来西亚的房地产市场一直处于艰难阶段,因为房地产库存供应过多,需求无法跟上,因此市场上仍有许多未售出的单元。本文的主要目的是基于国家经济研究局(NBER)建立的指标汇编方法,开发一种基于指数的住房负担能力指标,称为住房负担能力领先指数(HALI)。然后采用时变马尔可夫切换(TVMS)模型来评估建造住房可负担性指标的转移概率。过渡概率估计了住房负担能力状况的前景,以及在出现任何重大周转之前,它将在这种特定状况下停留多久。由于采用的数据是2000年至2015年的月度数据,构建的HALI成功地反映了非指数住房负担能力指标价格收入比(PIR)的先前变动。实证结果表明,当PIR作为住房负担能力运动的重合指标时,HALI的平均领先期为9.5个月。
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引用次数: 2
Distance to the Frontier and Innovation: The Role of Local Business Environment 前沿距离与创新:地方商业环境的作用
IF 0.8 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2020-06-14 DOI: 10.22452/mjes.vol57no1.2
P. Trang, Vu Hoang Nam
This study uses panel data from biennially surveys of small and medium-sized enterprises during the period of 2005-2015 in the transition economy of Vietnam, and data on the quality of local business environment (measured by the provincial competitiveness index). This study uncovers that the effects of distance to the frontier (measured by the ratio of productivity of an enterprise to that of the industry leader) on innovation are negatively moderated by improved local business environment. Such an important role of the local business environment indicates that laggard enterprises, which form the majority in transition economies, are favourably supported to achieve innovation when quality of the local business environment is improved.
本研究使用了2005-2015年越南转型经济中每两年一次的中小企业调查的面板数据,以及当地商业环境质量的数据(由省级竞争力指数衡量)。研究发现,前沿距离(以企业生产率与行业领先企业生产率之比衡量)对创新的影响被当地营商环境的改善负向调节。当地商业环境的这种重要作用表明,当当地商业环境的质量得到改善时,在转型经济中占多数的落后企业将得到有利的支持,以实现创新。
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引用次数: 1
Impact of Innovation on Economic Growth: Evidence from Malaysia 创新对经济增长的影响:来自马来西亚的证据
IF 0.8 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2020-06-14 DOI: 10.22452/mjes.vol57no1.6
S. Law, T. Sarmidi, L. Goh
This study empirically investigates the effect of innovation on economic growth using the neoclassical economic growth model. Embarking from the traditional labour growth, physical capital and human capital framework, innovation is postulated to be the main driver for robust economic growth. Using time series techniques, we discover very attention-grabbing findings that highlight the impact of innovation on economic growth for Malaysia. First, the innovation measured by the quantity of a total number of a patent application is statistically insignificant. The result is robust for various innovation measurements, including total local patent application and total foreign patent application. Interestingly, switching to total patent grant instead of a total number of patent application (local or foreign), the empirical result shows a significant impact on economic growth. The finding indirectly reveals the crucial impact of quality innovation rather than the quantity concern. Neglecting both quality and the commercialisation process of these new technologies may not solve the rigidity of knowledgecommercialisation paradox. Finally, we test for the prominent institutional quality in mediating economic growth under a knowledge-based economy. The interaction between institutional quality and the total patent grant has significantly accelerated the role of innovation channel to economic growth. The empirical findings imply that inadequacy of innovative technology flow over the long term has a detrimental effect on national innovative capacity. Thus, the innovation-economic growth nexus needs to be complemented with a good institutional quality framework, skilled human capital and broader networking to commercialise the innovative product to ensure that the innovation activities promote economic growth.
本文运用新古典经济增长模型对创新对经济增长的影响进行实证研究。从传统的劳动力增长、物质资本和人力资本框架出发,创新被假定为强劲经济增长的主要驱动力。使用时间序列技术,我们发现了非常引人注目的发现,突出了创新对马来西亚经济增长的影响。首先,以专利申请总量衡量的创新在统计上是不显著的。对于包括国内专利申请总量和国外专利申请总量在内的各种创新度量,结果都是稳健的。有趣的是,将专利授权总量转换为专利申请总量(本地或国外),实证结果显示对经济增长有显著影响。这一发现间接揭示了质量创新比数量创新更重要的影响。忽视这些新技术的质量和商业化过程可能无法解决知识商业化悖论的刚性。最后,我们检验了制度质量在知识经济条件下对经济增长的中介作用。制度质量与专利授权总量的交互作用显著加速了创新渠道对经济增长的作用。实证结果表明,长期创新技术流动不足会对国家创新能力产生不利影响。因此,创新与经济增长的关系需要辅以良好的制度质量框架、熟练的人力资本和更广泛的网络,以使创新产品商业化,以确保创新活动促进经济增长。
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引用次数: 18
Threshold Effect of Institutional Quality and the Validity of Environmental Kuznets Curve 制度质量的阈值效应与环境库兹涅茨曲线的有效性
IF 0.8 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2020-06-14 DOI: 10.22452/mjes.vol57no1.5
T. A. Masron, Y. Subramanian
Using a threshold estimation technique, this study examines the validity of environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) under different institutional quality regimes. A combined set of 99 developed and developing countries over the period from 2008 to 2016 has been chosen to confirm the issue in hand. Adopting panel threshold regression technique by Hansen (1999), the paper finds evidence substantiating the presence of single threshold effect. In general, we find that EKC hypothesis does not hold in the full sample analysis, in which high income fails to bring environmental degradation down. Only in the case of a segregated sample of developed countries, we find that the impact of high income (or income square) on environmental degradation is negative and significant after a certain level of ‘high’ institutional quality has been attained. On the contrary, EKC is found to be invalid, and high income fails to be converted fully to environment-protecting activities in developing countries. Therefore, the effectiveness of income in mitigating environmental issues seems to be dampened by the poor institutional quality in developing countries.
本研究采用阈值估计技术,检验了不同制度质量制度下环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)的有效性。选择了2008年至2016年期间的99个发达国家和发展中国家来确认手头的问题。采用Hansen(1999)的面板阈值回归技术,发现了单阈值效应存在的证据。总的来说,我们发现EKC假说在全样本分析中并不成立,在全样本中,高收入并不能降低环境退化。只有在发达国家的分离样本的情况下,我们发现,在达到一定水平的“高”制度质量后,高收入(或收入平方)对环境退化的影响是负面和显著的。相反,EKC被认为是无效的,发展中国家的高收入未能完全转化为环境保护活动。因此,收入在缓解环境问题方面的有效性似乎受到发展中国家制度质量差的影响。
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引用次数: 2
The International Transmission of Volatility Shocks on an Emerging Economy: The Case of Malaysia 波动冲击对新兴经济体的国际传导:以马来西亚为例
IF 0.8 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2019-12-03 DOI: 10.22452/mjes.vol56no2.4
S. Z. Shah, A. Z. Baharumshah, R. Said, Rafiqa Murdipi
This study examines the effects of global economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on Malaysia’s macroeconomic indicators. Three substantive findings emerged from our inquiry based on a multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model: (1) Domestic uncertainty – in nominal and real terms – seems to have no material impact on the macro-economy after controlling for global uncertainty. (2) Fluctuations in the global EPU are more important than domestic uncertainty in predicting a country’s macroeconomic variables, particularly output and CPI-based inflation. The macroeconomic variables carry signs as per theoretical expectation. (3) The model predicts that external shocks exhibit a much larger impact on macroeconomic variables than those shocks originating from domestic markets. The results have deepened our insight on how the real variables correlate with external uncertainties and the fitful recovery in the recent past.
本研究考察了全球经济政策不确定性对马来西亚宏观经济指标的影响。基于多元广义自回归条件异方差(GARCH)模型,我们的调查得出了三个实质性发现:(1)在控制了全球不确定性后,国内名义和实际的不确定性似乎对宏观经济没有实质性影响。(2) 在预测一个国家的宏观经济变量,特别是产出和基于CPI的通货膨胀时,全球EPU的波动比国内不确定性更重要。宏观经济变量与理论预期一致。(3) 该模型预测,外部冲击对宏观经济变量的影响远大于源自国内市场的冲击。这些结果加深了我们对真实变量如何与外部不确定性和近期时断时续的复苏相关的认识。
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引用次数: 2
Determinants of Poverty: A Dynamic Panel Data Analysis with Controls for Income Level and Inequality 贫困的决定因素:包含收入水平和不平等控制的动态面板数据分析
IF 0.8 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2019-12-03 DOI: 10.22452/mjes.vol56no2.3
Kah Wei Leow, E. Tan
This paper assesses the relationship between poverty on the one hand and economic growth and income inequality on the other hand by utilising a panel data set of 145 economies spanning the period, 1982 to 2017. The Arellano-Bond GMM estimation technique is employed to address the potential endogeneity problem in the regression exercise. In the course of the assessment, controls are effected for different country characteristics namely, income level and the degree of income inequality. Generally, it is found that economic growth and income inequality have a stronger bearing, negatively and positively respectively, on the incidence of poverty in middleincome than in low-income economies. The two variables also appear to have a larger impact in low-income inequality than in high-income inequality economies.
本文利用1982年至2017年145个经济体的面板数据集,评估了贫困与经济增长和收入不平等之间的关系。采用Arellano-Bond GMM估计技术来解决回归练习中潜在的内生性问题。在评估过程中,对不同的国家特征即收入水平和收入不平等程度进行了控制。一般来说,我们发现经济增长和收入不平等对中等收入经济体的贫困发生率的影响,分别大于对低收入经济体的影响。这两个变量对低收入不平等的影响似乎也大于对高收入不平等经济体的影响。
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引用次数: 6
Hedonic Analysis of the Impact of Flood Events on Residential Property Values in Malaysia: A Study of Willingness to Pay 洪水事件对马来西亚住宅物业价值影响的分形分析:支付意愿研究
IF 0.8 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2019-06-10 DOI: 10.22452/MJES.VOL56NO1.4
N. Ismail, M. Karim, B. Hasan-Basri
The effect of flooding on residential property values (RPV) is a major concern to all property buyers and owners. Although numerous studies have already discussed the risk of devaluation of those properties situated in flood prone areas, those that focused on the impact of flooding on residential properties in Malaysia are still limited. This paper extends existing literature by also estimating consumers’ willingness to pay for flood control measures to reduce the flood risk in Malaysia. Using the hedonic pricing model (HPM), our results suggest that the market value of urban and rural residential properties significantly decreases by 18.5 percent and 13.6 percent due to flooding, respectively. The result also shows that, respondents who are risk averse are willing to pay 35.4 percent more for flood control measures to reduce impact of flood risk compared to those who are risk takers. The results of this study can help property owners to understand the factors that contribute to property devaluation due to flooding. This study also proposes flood insurance programmes to be implemented as flooding is a major concern to real property owners.
洪水对住宅物业价值的影响是所有购房者和业主关注的主要问题。尽管许多研究已经讨论了位于洪水易发地区的房产贬值的风险,但那些关注洪水对马来西亚住宅房产影响的研究仍然有限。本文通过估计消费者为降低马来西亚洪水风险的防洪措施付费的意愿,扩展了现有文献。使用特征定价模型(HPM),我们的结果表明,由于洪水,城市和农村住宅的市场价值分别显著下降了18.5%和13.6%。结果还显示,与风险承担者相比,厌恶风险的受访者愿意为防洪措施多支付35.4%的费用,以减少洪水风险的影响。这项研究的结果可以帮助业主了解洪水导致房产贬值的因素。这项研究还建议实施洪水保险计划,因为洪水是房地产所有者的主要担忧。
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引用次数: 4
Quality Assessment of Trade Data in Malaysia 马来西亚贸易数据的质量评估
IF 0.8 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2019-06-10 DOI: 10.22452/MJES.VOL56NO1.2
Dhakir Abbas Ali, F. Johari, M. Alias
The quality of trade data is essential for any empirical study that uses them to construct a variable representing trade. However, previous studies have largely ignored the issue of trade data discrepancy. This discrepancy occurs when a country’s claim on sectoral bilateral trade is different from the value reported by its trade partner. Using a size ratio and correlation coefficient computed from the values reported by both parties of bilateral trades, this study examines trade data discrepancy in 20 trade sectors from 1987 to 2016 between Malaysia and its three major Asian trade partners, i.e. China, Singapore and Japan. We detect alarming discrepancy in Malaysia’s trade data. We also find that this discrepancy depends on the trade partner, time and trade sector. This study calls for attention of Malaysian policymakers regarding the possibility of customs mismanagement. We recommend that future empirical studies utilising trade in the analysis to either reconcile the data or to deploy both data sources in the econometric analysis as a robustness check.
贸易数据的质量对于使用它们构建代表贸易的变量的任何实证研究都是至关重要的。然而,以往的研究在很大程度上忽略了贸易数据差异问题。当一个国家对部门双边贸易的索赔与其贸易伙伴报告的价值不同时,就会出现这种差异。本研究利用双边贸易双方报告的价值计算出的规模比和相关系数,检验了1987年至2016年马来西亚与其三个主要亚洲贸易伙伴(中国、新加坡和日本)之间20个贸易部门的贸易数据差异。我们发现马来西亚的贸易数据存在惊人的差异。我们还发现,这种差异与贸易伙伴、时间和贸易部门有关。这项研究呼吁马来西亚政策制定者关注海关管理不善的可能性。我们建议未来的实证研究在分析中利用贸易来调和数据或在计量经济学分析中部署两个数据源作为稳健性检查。
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引用次数: 0
Environmental Degradation and Economic Growth in ASEAN-10: The Perspective of EKC Hypothesis 东盟10国环境退化与经济增长:EKC假设的视角
IF 0.8 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2019-06-10 DOI: 10.22452/MJES.VOL56NO1.3
Duc Nha Le
Environmental issues have been ranked among the most intense debates over the past decades by governments around the world. Sustainable development goals have been top priorities in the working agenda of national cabinets and administrations which questions the chronic trade-off between environment and economic performance. This paper aims at contributing further insights into the above-mentioned linkage to the contemporary literature by testing the validity of the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis. By conducting a panel data analysis on ASEAN-10 countries' statistics of carbon dioxide emissions per capita (COEpc), real gross domestic product per capita (rGDPpc), foreign direct investment inflow (FDIif), trade openness index (TOI), and urbanisation (URB), the findings have empirically confirmed the valid causality running from economic growth, international trade and demographic changes to environmental degradation. Additionally, the existence of an earlier inverted U-shaped and a later N-shaped EKC has been investigated and significantly confirmed the cyclical changes of the eco-enviro trade-off. Also, this paper provides implications for policymakers to consider the cost-benefit issue in the establishment and implementation of economic and environmental protection policies.
在过去的几十年里,环境问题一直是世界各国政府争论最激烈的问题之一。可持续发展目标一直是国家内阁和行政部门工作议程中的首要任务,这对环境和经济表现之间的长期权衡提出了质疑。本文旨在通过测试环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)假说的有效性,进一步深入了解上述与当代文学的联系。通过对东盟10国的人均二氧化碳排放量(COEpc)、人均实际国内生产总值(rGDPpc)、外国直接投资流入量(FDIF)、贸易开放指数(TOI)和城市化(URB)的统计数据进行面板数据分析,实证证实了经济增长的有效因果关系,国际贸易和人口结构变化导致环境恶化。此外,研究了早期倒U型和晚期N型EKC的存在,并显著证实了生态环境权衡的周期性变化。此外,本文还为决策者在制定和实施经济和环境保护政策时考虑成本效益问题提供了启示。
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引用次数: 9
期刊
Malaysian Journal of Economic Studies
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