Indian Growth and Development Review最新文献_第4页

Promoter ownership and bankruptcy reforms: evidence from India 发起人所有权和破产改革:来自印度的证据

IF 1.4 Q4 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES

Indian Growth and Development Review

Pub Date : 2022-02-17 DOI: 10.1108/igdr-03-2021-0033

Vishnu K. Ramesh, Reshma K. Ramesh, Jithesh T.

Purpose

The demand-side view of creditor rights posits a negative association between creditor rights and corporate borrowings. The purpose of this paper is as follows: first, the author examines whether the demand-side effect is more pronounced amongst firms with excess promoter shareholding. Subsequently, the authors analyze the impact of high promoter holdings on investment decisions owing to bankruptcy reforms.

Design/methodology/approach

To answer the above questions, the authors exploit the passage of the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC) (2016) that strengthens the creditor rights of lenders, which impacts the borrowings and financing activities of Indian corporates. Using a panel of listed Indian firms over the period of 2012–2019, the authors analyze how the IBC affects firms’ borrowings and financing decisions with excess promoter holdings.

Findings

The authors find that bankruptcy reforms led to a statistically significant decline in the use of borrowed funds (primarily secured and long-term debt) by firms with high concentrated holdings. The analysis also indicates that firms with excess promoter ownership face an increased cost of debt due to bankruptcy reforms. As a result, firms with excess promoter holdings curtail their investments. Overall, the results indicate that India’s bankruptcy reforms significantly affect the firms’ financing and investment decisions with highly concentrated ownership.

Originality/value

While past research has explored the relationship between bankruptcy reforms and demand for/supply of debt, the authors provide novel empirical evidence on the role of promoter holdings that affects the relationship between bankruptcy law and financing and investment decisions. To the best of the author’s knowledge, this study is the first to investigate the role of ownership structure in the context of bankruptcy reforms by using a quasi-natural experiment.

债权的需求方观点认为债权与公司借款之间存在负相关关系。本文的目的如下:首先，作者考察了在发起人持股过多的公司中，需求侧效应是否更为明显。随后，作者分析了高发起人持股对破产改革下投资决策的影响。设计/方法/方法为了回答上述问题，作者利用了《破产和破产法》(IBC)(2016)的通过，该法案加强了贷款人的债权，从而影响了印度企业的借贷和融资活动。作者使用2012-2019年期间的印度上市公司面板，分析了IBC如何影响拥有超额发起人持股的公司的借款和融资决策。研究结果作者发现，破产改革导致高度集中控股的公司借入资金(主要是有担保和长期债务)的使用在统计上显著下降。分析还表明，由于破产改革，发起人所有权过高的公司面临着债务成本的增加。因此，持有过多发起人股份的公司减少了投资。总体而言，印度的破产改革显著影响了股权高度集中的企业的融资和投资决策。虽然过去的研究已经探讨了破产改革与债务需求/供给之间的关系，但作者提供了新的经验证据，证明发起人持股的作用影响了破产法与融资和投资决策之间的关系。据作者所知，本研究是第一个利用准自然实验来研究破产改革背景下所有权结构的作用的研究。

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引用次数: 0

SME financing through public equity: review of the Indian SME exchanges 通过公募股权融资的中小企业:印度中小企业交易所回顾

IF 1.4 Q4 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES

Indian Growth and Development Review

Pub Date : 2022-02-08 DOI: 10.1108/igdr-10-2021-0138

Avinash Ghalke, S Kumar, S. N. Rao

PurposeTimely access to reasonably priced financing is critical to promote and sustain small and medium sized businesses (SMEs). This study aims to examine the role of the newly constituted SME exchanges in funding the growth of Indian SME firms. The impact of obtaining public equity capital on the firm’s growth prospects, capital structure and credit profile is the focus of this paper. In addition, this study compares the cost and speed of raising capital on specialised SME exchanges to the main board.Design/methodology/approachTo examine the impact of raising public equity capital, this study uses a difference-in-difference (DID) regression analysis. SMEs that raised financing on the SME exchange between 2013 and 2018 make up the treatment sample. This study uses a propensity score matching technique to find the control group from a sample of unlisted enterprises to reduce the likelihood of selection bias.FindingsThis study finds that SME profitability drops after an initial public offering (IPO), which is consistent with previous research. This study also discovered that after a company is listed, its total debt falls. This study also shows that after the IPO, there is no change in the borrowing costs of SME enterprises. Finally, this study finds an evidence of a decline in sales growth following the IPO, implying that the firms use the IPO money to rebalance their accounts after a period of heavy investment rather than for growth finance.Originality/valueA thriving and efficient equity financing market for SMEs has the potential to establish itself as a viable alternative to the existing dominant bank financing option. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this research is the first to examine the role of SME exchanges in the funding of Indian SME firms.

目的及时获得价格合理的融资对于促进和维持中小企业至关重要。本研究旨在探讨新成立的中小企业交易所在资助印度中小企业成长方面的作用。获取公共股权资本对企业成长前景、资本结构和信用状况的影响是本文的重点。此外，本研究还比较了中小企业专业交易所与主板的融资成本和速度。设计/方法/方法为了检验筹集公共股权资本的影响，本研究使用了差分回归分析(DID)。2013年至2018年间在中小企业交易所融资的中小企业构成处理样本。本研究采用倾向得分匹配技术，从非上市企业样本中寻找控制组，以降低选择偏差的可能性。本研究发现，中小企业在首次公开发行(IPO)后盈利能力下降，这与以往的研究结果一致。本研究还发现，公司上市后，其总负债下降。本研究还表明，在IPO之后，中小企业的借贷成本没有变化。最后，本研究发现了IPO后销售增长下降的证据，这意味着公司在经过一段时间的大量投资后，将IPO资金用于重新平衡其账户，而不是用于增长融资。一个繁荣和高效的中小企业股权融资市场有可能成为现有占主导地位的银行融资选择的可行替代方案。据作者所知，这项研究首次考察了中小企业交易所在印度中小企业融资中的作用。

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引用次数: 2

Optimal commodity taxation – a new computational procedure with application to India 最优商品税——一种适用于印度的新计算程序

IF 1.4 Q4 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES

Indian Growth and Development Review

Pub Date : 2022-02-03 DOI: 10.1108/igdr-07-2021-0093

A. Majumder, R. Ray, Sattwik Santra

PurposeThis paper aims to illustrate the usefulness of the proposed procedure to evaluate the Goods and Services Tax (GST) in India by applying it to provide evidence on optimal commodity tax rates.Design/methodology/approachIn the optimal commodity tax literature, the commonly used Ramsey–Samuelson–Diamond–Mirrlees framework assumes invariance of budget allocation between pre- and posttax regimes and uses only the first-order conditions in the two-stage optimization procedure. This paper proposes an iterative method that overcomes the above limitations in obtaining the optimal tax rates.FindingsIt is found that the optimal commodity taxes are highly sensitive to the procedure used to estimate them. The resulting tax rates turn out to be close to the GST tax slabs. The results also show that on both absolute and relative measures, for all the selected states considered here and for All-India, the optimal tax systems are progressive for two chosen values of the inequality aversion parameter.Originality/valueThere is a very limited literature on the computational methodology to calculate optimal commodity taxes, and consequently, the evidence is quite scarce as well. In combining contributions to the computation of optimal taxes with empirical evidence, this paper fills a significant gap in the literature. The context of India gives it added value since the GST has recently been introduced in India, and to the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is one of the first attempts at evaluating the Indian GST through the spectacles of optimal taxes.

目的本文旨在说明所提出的评估印度商品和服务税（GST）的程序的有用性，并将其应用于提供最佳商品税率的证据。设计/方法/方法在最优商品税文献中，常用的Ramsey–Samuelson–Diamond–Mirrles框架假设税前和税后制度之间的预算分配不变，并且在两阶段优化过程中仅使用一阶条件。本文提出了一种迭代方法，克服了上述限制，获得了最优税率。研究发现，最优商品税对估计程序高度敏感。由此产生的税率接近商品及服务税税率。结果还表明，在绝对和相对指标上，对于这里考虑的所有选定州和全印度，对于不平等厌恶参数的两个选定值，最优税收制度是渐进的。独创性/价值关于计算最优商品税的计算方法的文献非常有限，因此，证据也非常缺乏。本文将对最优税收计算的贡献与经验证据相结合，填补了文献中的一个重大空白。自从商品及服务税最近在印度引入以来，印度的背景赋予了它附加值，据作者所知，这是通过最优税收来评估印度商品及服务费的第一次尝试之一。

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引用次数: 0

Searching for hedging and safe haven assets for Indian equity market – a comparison between gold, cryptocurrency and commodities 为印度股市寻找对冲和避险资产——黄金、加密货币和大宗商品的比较

IF 1.4 Q4 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES

Indian Growth and Development Review

Pub Date : 2022-01-05 DOI: 10.1108/igdr-10-2021-0131

Sayantan Bandhu Majumder

PurposeThis paper aims to evaluate the hedging and safe haven properties of gold, cryptocurrency and commodities against the Indian equity market.Design/methodology/approachFirst, the authors estimate the hedging and safe haven abilities of gold, cryptocurrency and commodities for the Indian stock market and further verify whether such properties vary across the broad stock market indices and over the different degrees of market volatility. Second, the authors use the multivariate GARCH framework to calculate the dynamic hedge ratios and hedging efficiencies to compare the hedging properties of the alternative asset classes. Third, the authors verify the robustness of the general findings during the recent crisis emanating from the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic.FindingsGold, cryptocurrency and most commodities have significant hedging abilities. Only natural gas, crude oil and aluminum, on the other hand, have safe haven property. Neither gold nor cryptocurrency qualifies as a safe haven asset. On the other hand, the financialization of the Indian commodities market provides a significant dividend to investors in terms of hedging and safe haven capabilities. The authors find the least negative hedge ratio and the highest positive hedging effectiveness for the stock-crude oil and stock-natural gas portfolios. The central observations of the paper remain immune to the COVID crisis.Originality/valueFocusing on the Indian equity market, the paper compares the diversification abilities of traditional assets like gold with those of the modern class of assets, including cryptocurrency and other commodities.

目的本文旨在评估黄金、加密货币和大宗商品对印度股市的对冲和避险特性。设计/方法/方法首先，作者估计了黄金、加密货币和大宗商品对印度股市的对冲和避险能力，并进一步验证了这些特性是否因广泛的股市指数和不同程度的市场波动而有所不同。其次，作者使用多元GARCH框架来计算动态套期保值比率和套期保值效率，以比较替代资产类别的套期保值特性。第三，作者在新冠肺炎疫情爆发引发的最近危机中验证了总体调查结果的稳健性。FindingsGold、加密货币和大多数商品都具有显著的对冲能力。另一方面，只有天然气、原油和铝具有避险性质。黄金和加密货币都不属于避险资产。另一方面，印度大宗商品市场的金融化为投资者提供了对冲和避险能力方面的重大红利。作者发现，股票原油和股票天然气投资组合的负套期保值率最小，正套期保值有效性最高。该论文的核心观点仍然不受新冠肺炎危机的影响。独创性/价值本文以印度股市为中心，比较了黄金等传统资产与加密货币等现代资产的多元化能力。

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引用次数: 4

Labor market policies, informality and misallocation 劳动力市场政策、不拘礼节和分配不当

IF 1.4 Q4 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES

Indian Growth and Development Review

Pub Date : 2021-11-30 DOI: 10.1108/igdr-05-2021-0067

Priyaranjan Jha, R. Hasan

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to understand labor market regulations and their consequences for the allocation of resources.Design/methodology/approachThis paper constructs a theoretical model to study labor market regulations in developing countries and how it affects the allocation of resources between the less productive informal activities and more productive formal activities. It also provides empirical support for some theoretical results using cross-country data.FindingsWhen workers are risk-averse and the market for insurance against labor income risk is missing, regulations that provide insurance to workers (such as severance payments) reduce misallocation. However, regulations that simply create barriers to the dismissal of workers increase misallocation and end up reducing the welfare of workers. This study also provides some empirical evidence broadly consistent with the theoretical results using cross-country data. While dismissal regulations increase the share of informal employment, severance payments to workers do not.Research limitations/implicationsThe empirical exercise is constrained by the lack of availability of good data on the informal sector.Originality/valueThe analysis of the alternative labor market regulations analyzed in this paper in the presence of risk-averse workers is an original contribution to the literature.

目的本文的目的是了解劳动力市场规则及其对资源分配的影响。设计/方法论/方法本文构建了一个理论模型来研究发展中国家的劳动力市场法规，以及它如何影响生产力较低的非正式活动和生产力较高的正式活动之间的资源分配。它还为使用跨国数据的一些理论结果提供了实证支持。发现当工人厌恶风险，劳动力收入风险保险市场缺失时，为工人提供保险（如遣散费）的法规会减少分配不当。然而，仅仅为解雇工人制造障碍的法规增加了分配不当，最终降低了工人的福利。这项研究还提供了一些与跨国数据的理论结果大致一致的经验证据。虽然解雇条例增加了非正规就业的比例，但向工人支付的遣散费却没有。研究局限性/影响实证工作受到缺乏非正规部门良好数据的限制。原创性/价值本文在规避风险的工人在场的情况下分析的替代劳动力市场法规是对文献的原创贡献。

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引用次数: 1

Structural change and economic growth in India: a comparative study of Punjab 印度的结构变化与经济增长:旁遮普的比较研究

IF 1.4 Q4 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES

Indian Growth and Development Review

Pub Date : 2021-10-22 DOI: 10.1108/igdr-11-2020-0162

Anirban Sanyal, Nirvikar Singh

Purpose

The Green Revolution transformed agriculture in the Indian State of Punjab, with positive spillovers to the rest of India, but recently the state’s economy has fallen dramatically in rankings of per capita state output. Understanding the trajectory of Punjab’s economy has important lessons for all of India. Economic development is typically associated with changes in economic structure, but Punjab has remained relatively reliant on agriculture rather than shifting economic activity to manufacturing and services, where productivity growth might be greater.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors empirically examine structural change in the Punjab economy in the context of structural change and economic growth across the States of India. The authors calculate structural change indices and map their pattern over time. The authors estimate panel regressions and time-varying parameter regressions, as well as performing productivity change decompositions into within-sector and structural changes.

Findings

Panel regressions and time-varying-coefficient regressions suggest a significant positive influence of structural change on state-level growth. In addition, growth positively affected structural change across India’s states. The relative lack of structural change in Punjab’s economy is implicated in its relatively poor recent growth performance. Comparisons with a handful of other states reinforce this conclusion: Punjab’s lack of economic diversification is a plausible explanation for its lagging economic performance.

Originality/value

This paper performs a novel empirical analysis of structural change and growth, simultaneously using three different approaches: panel regressions, time-varying parameter regressions and productivity decompositions. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, it is the only paper we are aware of that combines these three approaches.

绿色革命改变了印度旁遮普邦的农业，对印度其他地区产生了积极的溢出效应，但最近该邦的人均经济产出排名急剧下降。了解旁遮普的经济发展轨迹对整个印度都有重要的借鉴意义。经济发展通常与经济结构的变化有关，但旁遮普仍然相对依赖农业，而不是将经济活动转向生产率增长可能更大的制造业和服务业。设计/方法/方法作者在印度各邦结构变化和经济增长的背景下对旁遮普经济的结构变化进行了实证研究。作者计算了结构变化指数，并绘制了它们随时间变化的模式。作者估计了面板回归和时变参数回归，并将生产率变化分解为部门内变化和结构变化。结果表明，结构变化对国家经济增长具有显著的正向影响。此外，经济增长对印度各邦的结构变化产生了积极影响。旁遮普经济结构变化的相对缺乏与其近期相对较差的增长表现有关。与其他几个邦的比较强化了这一结论:旁遮普缺乏经济多样化是其经济表现滞后的合理解释。原创性/价值本文采用三种不同的方法:面板回归、时变参数回归和生产率分解，对结构变化和增长进行了新颖的实证分析。据作者所知，这是我们所知道的唯一一篇结合了这三种方法的论文。

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引用次数: 0

Does any nexus between electricity consumption and economic growth exist? Evidence from Haryana using VAR model 电力消耗和经济增长之间是否存在联系？哈里亚纳邦使用VAR模型的证据

IF 1.4 Q4 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES

Indian Growth and Development Review

Pub Date : 2021-08-04 DOI: 10.1108/igdr-10-2020-0153

K. Singh

PurposeIn the fast-changing technological environment, electricity is the essence of the world economy and a significant means for all the modern world’s possessions. The ongoing economic downturn focuses on energy’s role in the economy. This study aims to explore the nexuses between per capita electricity usage and per capita state gross domestic product (SGDP) in Haryana, India.Design/methodology/approachThe statistics from 1989 to 2015 have been analyzed using Johansen cointegration, vector autoregression and paired Granger-causality test.FindingsThe Granger causality test results show that a long-run association is absent. A short-run unidirectional relationship runs from per capita SGDP to per capita electricity usage.Practical implicationsAs a policy suggestion, the policymakers may encourage energy conservation measures and renewable energy sources to lead the country’s sustainable energy supply. Moreover, Haryana can increase its influence in this sector and enter rapidly in the growing markets worldwide by stimulating the production and adoption of digital solutions for energy efficiency.Originality/valueTo the best of the author’s awareness, this research is one of its nature regarding systematically analyzing electricity usage and economic growth relationship in Haryana.

目的在快速变化的技术环境中，电力是世界经济的本质，也是现代世界所有财产的重要来源。持续的经济衰退集中于能源在经济中的作用。本研究旨在探讨印度哈里亚纳邦的人均用电量与人均国家国内生产总值（SGDP）之间的关系。设计/方法/方法使用Johansen协整、向量自回归和配对Granger因果检验对1989年至2015年的统计数据进行了分析。格兰杰因果关系检验结果表明，长期关联是不存在的。从人均SGDP到人均用电量之间存在短期单向关系。实际含义作为一项政策建议，政策制定者可以鼓励采取节能措施和可再生能源，以引导国家的可持续能源供应。此外，哈里亚纳邦可以通过刺激能源效率数字解决方案的生产和采用，提高其在该行业的影响力，并迅速进入全球不断增长的市场。原创性/价值据作者所知，本研究是系统分析哈里亚纳邦电力使用和经济增长关系的本质之一。

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引用次数: 0

Impact of re-election on development in India: a comparative analysis of leading and lagging states 连任对印度发展的影响:领先邦与落后邦的比较分析

IF 1.4 Q4 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES

Indian Growth and Development Review

Pub Date : 2021-07-05 DOI: 10.1108/igdr-11-2020-0156

B. S. Misra

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to examine political accountability to the voter in India by studying re-election patterns in 14 major states categorized as leading and lagging during the period 1952–2015.Design/methodology/approachThis study has computed a state-wise re-election index by taking the ratio of the number of constituencies exhibiting re-election in four consecutive terms during 1952–1999 to the total number of constituencies in the state. The time-invariant re-election index as of the year 1999 is used to estimate the impact of the re-election on per capita state income during 2001–2015. This paper has used the correlated random effects estimation procedure that considers the state-specific unobserved factors while using a time-invariant regressor to ascertain the impact of re-election.FindingsThis study finds that persistent re-election does not seem to lead to better development outcomes. When this study computes the re-election index by excluding constituencies that are underdeveloped both in the economic and social spheres, this paper finds the asymmetric impact of re-election for the leading and the lagging states. The findings suggest that historical institutions in the laggings states could be driving the empirical results. The empirical findings are corroborated by the relatively poor availability of basic amenities in constituencies exhibiting persistent re-election when compared to the state average.Practical implicationsThe findings suggest that the provision of re-election without term limits may need to be revisited in the lagging states for better political accountability.Originality/valueFirst, the authors study the pattern of constituency-wise re-election to compute state-wise re-election index to capture persistent re-election. Second, the authors assess the development status of a constituency by mapping it to the development indicators of the district in which the constituency is located. This paper considers both economic as well social indicators of development. Third, the time-invariant nature of the re-election index helps to address reverse causality while studying the impact of re-election on development. Fourth, the authors use a novel econometric methodology to study the impact of the re-election on development given the time-invariant characteristic of the re-election index.

目的本文的目的是通过研究1952年至2015年期间14个主要邦的连任模式来检验印度选民的政治责任。设计/方法/方法本研究通过计算连续四届连任的选区数量的比率来计算各州的连任指数1952年至1999年期间，该州的选区总数。截至1999年的时不变连任指数用于估计2001-2005年连任对人均州收入的影响。本文使用了相关随机效应估计程序，该程序考虑了特定状态的未观察因素，同时使用时不变回归器来确定重新选择的影响。结果本研究发现，持续的重新选择似乎不会带来更好的发展结果。当本研究通过排除经济和社会领域不发达的选区来计算连任指数时，本文发现连任对领先州和落后州的影响是不对称的。研究结果表明，落后州的历史制度可能推动了实证结果。与州平均水平相比，持续连任的选区的基本设施相对较差，这证实了实证结果。实际含义研究结果表明，在落后的州，可能需要重新考虑无任期限制的连任条款，以更好地承担政治责任。原创性/价值首先，作者研究了选区连任的模式，以计算州连任指数来捕捉持续连任。其次，作者通过将选区与选区所在地区的发展指标进行映射来评估选区的发展状况。本文同时考虑了经济和社会发展指标。第三，在研究连任对发展的影响时，连任指数的时间不变性质有助于解决反向因果关系。第四，在重新选举指数具有时不变特征的情况下，作者采用一种新的计量经济学方法研究了重新选举对发展的影响。

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引用次数: 0

Role of digital economy and technology adoption for financial inclusion in India 数字经济和技术在印度金融包容性中的作用

IF 1.4 Q4 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES

Indian Growth and Development Review

Pub Date : 2021-06-14 DOI: 10.1108/IGDR-01-2020-0009

Vishal Vyas, Priyanka Jain

PurposeThe study aims to explore the role of digital economy and technology adoption for financial inclusion in the Indian context.Design/methodology/approachA conceptual framework was developed and hypotheses were tested through a survey conducted on 433 educated adults (males and females) residing in different districts of Rajasthan (India). Data was collected through a structured questionnaire and was subjected to confirmatory factor analysis. Structural equation modeling (second-order) was used to validate the measurement model and to test the mediating effect.FindingsThe measurement model is a confirmatory factor analysis and measures the reliability of the observed variables in relation to the latent constructs and indices shows the overall model fit. Structural model results indicate a complete mediation and a reflective impact (R2 = 0.28) of the extended technology acceptance model on digital economy and financial inclusion relationship.Research limitations/implicationsThe study has taken into account only the perception of educated adults residing more specifically in one geographical area of a country. Thus, it limits the generalization of results in terms of implications to other regions and countries.Practical implicationsThe proposed framework and implications are quite significant for policymakers and service providers to understand the nexus and strategic choices involved in this area. Moreover, understanding of user’s frame dependence would help in the development of digital assistive models that would perhaps mitigate the gap from participation (digital economy) to acceptance (financial inclusion).Originality/valuePresent study proposed a three-dimensional hypothetical model and conceptualized the digital economy (independent variable) as participation, behavioral intentions measured through the extended technology acceptance model (mediating variable) as adoption and financial inclusion (dependent variable) as acceptance to better understand the nexus. It represents the foremost step and a unique effort in this area. Moreover, the study was empirical and has wider applications both from the perspectives of end-users and service providers.

目的本研究旨在探讨印度背景下数字经济和技术采用对金融包容性的作用。设计/方法/方法通过对居住在拉贾斯坦邦（印度）不同地区的433名受过教育的成年人（男性和女性）进行的调查，制定了一个概念框架，并对假设进行了测试。数据通过结构化问卷收集，并进行验证性因素分析。使用结构方程建模（二阶）来验证测量模型并测试中介效应。结果测量模型是一种验证性因素分析，测量观察变量与潜在结构和指标之间的可靠性，显示出总体模型拟合。结构模型结果表明，扩展技术接受模型对数字经济和金融包容性关系具有完全的中介作用和反映性影响（R2=0.28）。研究局限性/含义该研究只考虑了受过教育的成年人居住在一个国家的一个地理区域的看法。因此，它限制了结果对其他区域和国家的影响的泛化。实际含义拟议的框架和含义对决策者和服务提供商了解这一领域的关系和战略选择非常重要。此外，理解用户的框架依赖性将有助于开发数字辅助模型，这可能会缩小从参与（数字经济）到接受（金融包容性）的差距。原创性/价值本研究提出了一个三维假设模型，并将数字经济（自变量）概念化为参与，通过将扩展技术接受模型（中介变量）作为采用，将金融包容性（因变量）作为接受来衡量行为意向，以更好地理解两者之间的关系。它代表着这方面最重要的一步和独特的努力。此外，这项研究是实证性的，从最终用户和服务提供商的角度来看都有更广泛的应用。

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引用次数: 9

Changes of base-year and Indian GDP growth: an agnostic look 基准年和印度GDP增长的变化:一个不可知论的视角

IF 1.4 Q4 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES

Indian Growth and Development Review

Pub Date : 2021-06-03 DOI: 10.1108/IGDR-08-2020-0124

M. Chakrabarty, Partha Ray

PurposeWorld over, change of base year in the gross domestic product (GDP) is a standard practice of GDP estimation. However, unless a consistent series of GDP is released with respect to the new base for the earlier period, the existence of multiple growth rates creates problems for applied researchers, policymakers and the general public alike. Faced with such a menu of GDP series researchers often try to interpolate a consistent series of GDP. The main purpose of this paper is to analyses the nature of the data generating process of such multiple interpolated series of quarterly growth rates and tries to discern the consistency of such processes.Design/methodology/approachThe present paper tries to look into the statistical implications and complications of such interpolated quarterly GDP/growth series in India in terms of three series of GDP, namely, with 1999–2000, 2004–2005 and 2011–2012 as its bases.FindingsThe analysis reveals that as a result of a change of base year, the nature of the data generating process of the old and new GDP series could undergo changes and experience different breakpoints. While all these conclusions seem to be valid for GDP growth at quarterly intervals, taking the data at annual frequency is less problematic.Practical implicationsThe observation suggests that in most applied work, researchers may not have the luxury of only working with annual data and certain consistency checks will be necessary to check the veracity of the results based on quarterly data with those based on annual data. Second, moving forward it may be useful for the Authorities to make a transition to a chain-based linking method rather than fixed time-period-based bases as is currently done.Originality/valueThe analysis of Indian GDP in this paper is, perhaps, indicative of the fact that usage of quarterly GDP data is to be handled with caution and it is preferable that any serious empirical analysis uses annual GDP data whenever it is available/feasible. The comparison of GDP growth rates at different frequencies and examining the true nature of the process are quite unique in their contribution towards empirical macroeconomic research.

目的在世界范围内，国内生产总值(GDP)基准年的变化是估计GDP的标准做法。然而，除非公布一系列与前期新基数相一致的GDP数据，否则多重增长率的存在会给应用研究人员、政策制定者和普通公众带来问题。面对这样一系列的GDP序列，研究人员往往试图插入一个一致的GDP序列。本文的主要目的是分析这些季度增长率的多重插值序列的数据生成过程的性质，并试图辨别这些过程的一致性。本文试图以1999-2000年、2004-2005年和2011-2012年三个GDP序列为基础，研究印度这种内插的季度GDP/增长序列的统计含义和复杂性。分析发现，由于基准年的变化，新旧GDP序列数据生成过程的性质会发生变化，并经历不同的断点。虽然所有这些结论似乎都适用于每季度的GDP增长，但以年度频率计算数据的问题就小得多。实际意义观察结果表明，在大多数应用工作中，研究人员可能无法仅使用年度数据，并且必须进行某些一致性检查，以检查基于季度数据的结果与基于年度数据的结果的准确性。第二，向前推进，当局过渡到以链为基础的链接方法，而不是像目前那样以固定的时间段为基础，可能是有益的。本文中对印度GDP的分析或许表明了这样一个事实，即季度GDP数据的使用需要谨慎处理，任何严肃的实证分析都最好使用年度GDP数据，只要它是可用的/可行的。对不同频率下GDP增长率的比较，以及对这一过程的真实性质的考察，对实证宏观经济研究的贡献是相当独特的。

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引用次数: 2