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Impact of Social Interactions on Duopoly Competition with Quality Considerations 考虑质量因素的社会互动对双寡头竞争的影响
Pub Date : 2021-01-07 DOI: 10.1287/MNSC.2021.3972
Xin Geng, Xiaomeng Guo, Guang Xiao
We study the impacts of social interactions on competing firms’ quality differentiation, pricing decisions, and profit performance. Two forms of social interactions are identified and analyzed: (1) market-expansion effect (MEE)—the total market expands as a result of both firms’ sales—and (2) value-enhancement effect (VEE)—a consumer gains additional utility of purchasing from one firm based on this firm’s previous and/or current sales volume. We consider a two-stage duopoly competition framework, in which both firms select quality levels in the first stage simultaneously and engage in a two-period price competition in the second stage. In the main model, we assume that each firm sets a single price and commits to it across two selling periods. We find that both forms of social interactions tend to lower prices and intensify price competition for given quality levels. However, MEE weakens the product-quality differentiation and is benign to both high-quality and low-quality firms. It also benefits consumers and improves social welfare. By contrast, VEE enlarges the quality differentiation and only benefits the high-quality firm, but is particularly malignant to the low-quality firm. It further reduces the consumers’ monetary surplus. Such impact is consistent, regardless of whether the VEE interactions involve previous or current consumers. We further discuss several model extensions, including dynamic pricing, combined social effects, and various cost structures, and verify that the aforementioned impacts of MEE and VEE are qualitatively robust to those extensions. Our results provide important managerial insights for firms in competitive markets and suggest that they need to not only be aware of the consumers’ social interactions, but also, more importantly, distinguish the predominant form of the interactions so as to apply proper marketing strategies. This paper was accepted by Matthew Shum, marketing.
我们研究了社会互动对竞争企业质量差异化、定价决策和利润绩效的影响。本文确定并分析了两种形式的社会互动:(1)市场扩张效应(MEE)——由于两家公司的销售而扩大了整个市场;(2)价值增强效应(VEE)——消费者从一家公司购买时获得了基于该公司以前和/或当前销量的额外效用。我们考虑两阶段双寡头竞争框架,其中两家公司在第一阶段同时选择质量水平,并在第二阶段进行两期价格竞争。在主模型中,我们假设每个公司设定一个单一的价格,并在两个销售期间承诺它。我们发现,这两种形式的社会互动都倾向于降低价格,并加剧特定质量水平的价格竞争。然而,MEE削弱了产品质量的差异化,对高质量企业和低质量企业都是良性的。它也有利于消费者和提高社会福利。而VEE扩大了质量分化,只对高质量企业有利,对低质量企业尤为有害。这进一步减少了消费者的货币剩余。这种影响是一致的,无论VEE交互是否涉及以前或当前的消费者。我们进一步讨论了几种模型扩展,包括动态定价、综合社会效应和各种成本结构,并验证了上述MEE和VEE的影响对这些扩展具有质量上的鲁棒性。我们的研究结果为竞争市场中的企业提供了重要的管理见解,并建议他们不仅需要了解消费者的社会互动,而且更重要的是,区分互动的主要形式,以便应用适当的营销策略。这篇论文被市场营销学的Matthew Shum接受。
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引用次数: 17
Volatility, Adjustment Cost and Capital Misallocation: Evidence from Chinese Industrial Firms 波动率、调整成本与资本错配:来自中国工业企业的证据
Pub Date : 2021-01-04 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3739974
Sarah Tang, Jun Zhang, J. Shen
This paper investigates the impact of volatility in profitability shock and capital adjustment cost on aggregate total factor productivity (TFP) in Chinese industries firms. To quantify the effects of volatility and adjustment costs on aggregate TFP, we recover key structural parameters in a dynamic optimization problem, so the model is able to replicate salient features observed from the firm-level data. Our result shows that volatility leads to considerable loss in aggregate TFP, while the role of adjustment cost is limited but significant.
本文研究了盈利能力波动冲击和资本调整成本对中国工业企业总要素生产率的影响。为了量化波动性和调整成本对总TFP的影响,我们在动态优化问题中恢复了关键结构参数,因此模型能够复制从企业层面数据中观察到的显著特征。研究结果表明,波动率对总TFP的影响较大,而调整成本的作用有限但显著。
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引用次数: 1
The Impact of Early Digital Movie Releases on Box Office Revenue: Evidence from the Korean Market 数字电影早期发行对票房收入的影响:来自韩国市场的证据
Pub Date : 2020-12-15 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3749476
Yangfan Liang, Gordon Burtch, D. Cho, Michael D. Smith
Movie studios’ film distribution practices have undergone radical changes over the past decade with the rise of digital channels including Electronic-Sell-Through (EST) and Video-on-demand (VOD). However, one aspect of the release schedule has been remarkably stable. Most Hollywood movies are still released in theaters 1-3 months before they are made available on digital channels for in-home consumption. Given the rising importance of digital in-home channels, our research analyzes whether earlier digital in-home releases impact theatrical revenue, home entertainment revenue, and the overall revenue received by studios. We address these questions using data from South Korea where, for a number of years, studios have pursued early digital release of many movies via an offering known as Super Premium (SP) Video on Demand (VOD). SPVOD was introduced in South Korea in 2012 and had been adopted by every major movie studio in Korea by the end of 2018. Traditional (non-SP) digital releases typically occur 90 days after the initial theatrical release, well after the movie has stopped showing in theaters. By contrast, SP releases typically occur just four to five weeks after a theatrical premiere, while the movie is typically still being shown in theaters. We exploit cross-country differences in movies’ theatrical revenue over the duration of the box office window to investigate the extent to which an early digital release impacts box office revenue. In particular, we employ a difference-in-differences-in-differences (DDD) strategy, contrasting SP versus non-SP movie revenues over time, before versus after the Korean SP release, and in Korea versus the United States (where SP notably does not exist). This identification strategy enables us to empirically isolate the causal effect of the SP release, over and above any confounded, systematic differences in the box office performance of SP-assigned and non-SP-assigned movies. With respect to theatrical revenue, we find that shortening the digital release window from 3 months to 3-5 weeks after the theatrical release causes a statistically and economically insignificant decline in theatrical revenue, equivalent to an approximate 0.8% drop in total theatrical revenue in Korea during the first eight weeks of the theatrical run. With respect to home entertainment revenue, using digital movie sales data in Korea and industry estimates of studio margins on theatrical and SPVOD revenue, we estimate that SPVOD releases increase the marginal revenue received by studios in the first eight weeks of a movie’s Korean release by approximately 12%. Finally, we find that while the data from torrent piracy suggest that early SPVOD releases lead to earlier global availability of high-quality piracy sources, we see no evidence that these early sources increase piracy demand for movies released in SPVOD windows in either the Korean or US markets.
随着电子销售(EST)和视频点播(VOD)等数字渠道的兴起,电影制片厂的电影发行实践在过去十年中发生了根本性的变化。然而,发布计划的一个方面非常稳定。大多数好莱坞电影在影院上映1-3个月后,才能在数字频道上提供家庭消费。鉴于数字家庭频道的重要性日益上升,我们的研究分析了早期的数字家庭发行是否会影响影院收入、家庭娱乐收入和电影公司的总收入。我们使用来自韩国的数据来解决这些问题,多年来,韩国的电影公司一直在寻求通过所谓的超级优质(SP)视频点播(VOD)来早期发行许多电影。SPVOD于2012年在韩国推出,到2018年底已被韩国所有主要电影制片厂采用。传统的(非sp)数字发行通常发生在首次影院发行90天后,也就是电影在影院停止放映之后。相比之下,SP通常在影院首映后的四到五周内发行,而电影通常仍在影院上映。我们利用电影在票房窗口期间的影院收入的跨国差异来调查早期数字发行对票房收入的影响程度。特别是,我们采用了一种差异中的差异(DDD)策略,对比了随着时间的推移,韩国SP发行之前与之后,以及韩国与美国(明显不存在SP)的SP电影收入。这种识别策略使我们能够在经验上隔离SP发行的因果效应,超越SP分配和非SP分配电影票房表现的任何混乱的系统差异。关于影院收入,我们发现将数字发行窗口从影院发行后的3个月缩短到3-5周会导致影院收入在统计上和经济上都不显著的下降,相当于韩国影院前8周的总影院收入下降了约0.8%。关于家庭娱乐收入,我们使用韩国的数字电影销售数据和行业对影院和SPVOD收入的工作室利润率的估计,我们估计SPVOD的发行使电影公司在一部电影在韩国发行的前八周的边际收入增加了大约12%。最后,我们发现,虽然种子盗版的数据表明,早期的SPVOD发布导致全球更早地获得高质量的盗版资源,但我们没有看到证据表明这些早期的资源增加了韩国或美国市场SPVOD窗口发布的电影的盗版需求。
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引用次数: 0
Market Size and Product Composition: Evidence from Hollywood 市场规模和产品构成:来自好莱坞的证据
Pub Date : 2020-12-15 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3751648
Joseph Kuehn, Ryan Lampe
This paper examines how outside and inside competition affect the number and composition of product offerings. The question is addressed using the example of the U.S. motion picture industry, which has experienced declining attendance in the past decade due to outside competition from streaming services and smart phone applications. Using data on 1,486 releases between 2009 and 2018, we estimate a structural model of endogenous product choice in which studios allocate a fixed budget to low-, medium-, and high-budget movie projects each year. Counterfactual estimates using our parameter estimates indicate that an increase in the value of the outside option leads to a significant reduction in the number of medium-budget movies but little change in the number of low- and high-budget movies. Additional counterfactual exercises that simulate a change to the level of competition inside the market, such as a merger between two studios or the entry of a new studio, confirm the existence of an inverse relationship between competition and the number of medium-budget movies.
本文研究了外部和内部竞争如何影响产品供应的数量和组成。这个问题以美国电影行业为例进行了说明。由于来自流媒体服务和智能手机应用程序的外部竞争,美国电影行业在过去十年中经历了上座率的下降。利用2009年至2018年间1486部电影的数据,我们估计了一个内生产品选择的结构模型,在该模型中,电影公司每年为低、中、高预算电影项目分配固定预算。使用我们的参数估计的反事实估计表明,外部选项值的增加导致中等预算电影数量的显著减少,但低成本和高成本电影的数量变化不大。模拟市场内竞争水平变化的其他反事实练习,例如两个工作室之间的合并或新工作室的进入,证实了竞争与中等成本电影数量之间存在反比关系。
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引用次数: 0
The Impact of CEO Overconfidence on Profitability and Stock Return: A Firm’s Life Cycle Perspective CEO过度自信对盈利能力和股票回报的影响:一个企业生命周期的视角
Pub Date : 2020-12-02 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3741785
Sebahattin Demirkan, B. K. Mishra, Tuba Toksoz
We examine how CEO overconfidence impacts profitability and stock return for firms at different stages in their life cycle. Extant research has shown that an overconfident personality could affect the CEO's decision-making on investment, financial reporting, and the firm's choice of policies. It is well known that firms have lifecycle stages as they evolve with time. The firm's evolution is triggered by changes in internal factors like an investment and managerial decisions and external factors such as the evolution of industry and economy. Prior literature posits that life cycle stages have an impact on firms' decision making and profitability. We find that firms with overconfident CEOs perform differently and have abnormal returns depending on the firm's life cycle. Especially they perform better and have positive abnormal returns in growth, mature and shake-out stages if the CEOs are overconfident. We find no significant result for firms in the introduction and decline phases.
我们考察了CEO过度自信对公司不同生命周期阶段的盈利能力和股票回报的影响。现有的研究表明,过度自信的性格可能会影响CEO在投资、财务报告和公司政策选择方面的决策。众所周知,随着时间的推移,公司有生命周期阶段。企业的演变是由内部因素(如投资和管理决策)和外部因素(如产业和经济的演变)的变化引发的。先前的文献认为生命周期阶段对企业的决策和盈利能力有影响。我们发现,ceo过度自信的公司表现不同,并且根据公司的生命周期产生异常回报。特别是在ceo过度自信的情况下,在成长期、成熟期和淘汰期,他们的表现会更好,并且有正的异常回报。我们发现企业在引进和衰退阶段没有显著的结果。
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引用次数: 1
The Hart Asset at the Heart of Your Organisation Hart资产是您组织的核心
Pub Date : 2020-11-27 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3738418
S. Davidson, C. Berg, J. Potts
What assets does a firm need to hold to develop a profitable business model? A ‘Hart asset’ is an asset that a firm cannot strategically afford a rival firm to own or control due to the risk of hold up, and therefore must be held within the firm, and upon which a profitable business model can be built. We tie the Hart asset to the problem of complementarities in profitable innovation, and conclude with an example Hart asset in digital platforms.
一个公司需要持有什么资产来发展一个盈利的商业模式?“哈特资产”是一种资产,由于被劫持的风险,公司在战略上无法承担竞争对手拥有或控制的成本,因此必须在公司内部持有,并在此基础上建立有利可图的商业模式。我们将Hart资产与盈利性创新中的互补性问题联系起来,并以数字平台中的Hart资产为例进行总结。
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引用次数: 0
Sales and Rank on Amazon.com 销售和排名在亚马逊网站
Pub Date : 2020-11-10 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3728281
Sherry He, Brett Hollenbeck
In this note we provide a method for converting sales rank data into sales quantity. We show how sales quantity data can be extracted from product inventories on Amazon for a subset of products. We collect a large dataset using this method and then generalize results from Chevalier & Goolsbee (2003) by estimating the fit of a Pareto distribution model of sales rank for a large number of categories. We provide the outputs necessary to convert rank to quantity for these categories as well as a method for conducting inference on quantities.
在本文中,我们提供了一种将销售排名数据转换为销售数量的方法。我们展示了如何从亚马逊的产品库存中提取产品子集的销售数量数据。我们使用这种方法收集了一个大型数据集,然后将Chevalier &Goolsbee(2003)通过估计大量品类的销售排名的帕累托分布模型的拟合。我们提供了将这些类别的秩转换为数量所需的输出,以及对数量进行推理的方法。
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引用次数: 5
Dynamic Programs with Shared Resources and Signals: Dynamic Fluid Policies and Asymptotic Optimality 具有共享资源和信号的动态规划:动态流体策略和渐近最优性
Pub Date : 2020-11-10 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3728111
David B. Brown, Jingwei Zhang
Allocating Resources Across Systems Coupled by Shared Information Many sequential decision problems involve repeatedly allocating a limited resource across subsystems that are jointly affected by randomly evolving exogenous factors. For example, in adaptive clinical trials, a decision maker needs to allocate patients to treatments in an effort to learn about the efficacy of treatments, but the number of available patients may vary randomly over time. In capital budgeting problems, firms may allocate resources to conduct R&D on new products, but funding budgets may evolve randomly. In many inventory management problems, firms need to allocate limited production capacity to satisfy uncertain demands at multiple locations, and these demands may be correlated due to vagaries in shared market conditions. In this paper, we develop a model involving “shared resources and signals” that captures these and potentially many other applications. The framework is naturally described as a stochastic dynamic program, but this problem is quite difficult to solve. We develop an approximation method based on a “dynamic fluid relaxation”: in this approximation, the subsystem state evolution is approximated by a deterministic fluid model, but the exogenous states (the signals) retain their stochastic evolution. We develop an algorithm for solving the dynamic fluid relaxation. We analyze the corresponding feasible policies and performance bounds from the dynamic fluid relaxation and show that these are asymptotically optimal as the number of subsystems grows large. We show that competing state-of-the-art approaches used in the literature on weakly coupled dynamic programs in general fail to provide asymptotic optimality. Finally, we illustrate the approach on the aforementioned dynamic capital budgeting and multilocation inventory management problems.
许多顺序决策问题涉及在子系统之间重复分配有限的资源,这些子系统受随机演化的外生因素的共同影响。例如,在适应性临床试验中,决策者需要将患者分配到治疗中,以努力了解治疗的疗效,但可用患者的数量可能随时间随机变化。在资本预算问题中,企业可能会分配资源进行新产品的研发,但资金预算可能会随机演变。在许多库存管理问题中,企业需要分配有限的生产能力来满足多个地点的不确定需求,而这些需求可能由于共享市场条件的变幻莫测而相互关联。在本文中,我们开发了一个涉及“共享资源和信号”的模型,该模型可以捕获这些和潜在的许多其他应用程序。该框架自然被描述为随机动态规划,但这个问题很难解决。我们开发了一种基于“动态流体松弛”的近似方法:在这种近似中,子系统状态演化由确定性流体模型近似,但外源状态(信号)保持其随机演化。提出了一种求解动态流体松弛的算法。从动态流体松弛的角度分析了相应的可行策略和性能界,并证明了随着子系统数量的增加,这些策略和性能界是渐近最优的。我们表明,在文献中使用的关于弱耦合动态规划的竞争的最先进的方法一般不能提供渐近最优性。最后,针对上述动态资金预算和多地点库存管理问题,给出了具体的解决方法。
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引用次数: 5
Uncertainty Stifles Innovation and Growth: Evidence From Geopolitical Flare-Ups 不确定性扼杀创新和增长:来自地缘政治突发事件的证据
Pub Date : 2020-11-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3722797
Ruchith Dissanayake, Yanhui Wu
Using an indicator measure based on war and terror acts that is plausibly uncorrelated with local economic conditions, we document that unanticipated increases in geopolitical uncertainty cause a reduction in R&D expenditure and patenting activity in firms in the U.S. In the cross section, the impact of geopolitical uncertainty on innovation is greater for firms in industries with high innovative competition and financial market frictions. Using industry level data, we show that geopolitical uncertainty lowers long-run economic growth through each of the mechanisms. We show that our results are unlikely to be driven by omitted variable bias or measurement error.
我们使用了一个基于战争和恐怖行为的指标度量,这似乎与当地经济状况无关,我们证明了地缘政治不确定性的意外增加导致美国公司研发支出和专利活动的减少。在横截面中,地缘政治不确定性对创新的影响更大,对于那些创新竞争激烈和金融市场摩擦的行业的公司。利用行业层面的数据,我们发现地缘政治不确定性通过每一种机制降低了长期经济增长。我们表明,我们的结果不太可能是由遗漏的变量偏差或测量误差驱动的。
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引用次数: 0
COVID-19 ECONOMICS: Competitive Survival in a Devastated Industry: Evidence from Hotels during COVID-19 COVID-19经济学:在遭受重创的行业中竞争生存:来自COVID-19期间酒店的证据
Pub Date : 2020-10-27 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3660174
M. Noel
The COVID-19 pandemic caused an unprecedented collapse of the U.S. economy in late March 2020. The federal government scrambled to provide emergency financial support through a variety of hastily-assembled programs, such as PPP, but relief did not always go to where it was most needed. This article shows how a business' failure risk in a pandemic depends on its native ability to adapt to changing consumer preferences in a pandemic. It demonstrates native adaptability in the context of one particularly hard-hit industry, the lodging industry, and argues that funds can be distributed more efficiently by taking native adaptability into account.
2020年3月下旬,新冠肺炎疫情导致美国经济前所未有的崩溃。联邦政府争先恐后地通过各种仓促拼凑的项目提供紧急财政支持,比如PPP,但救济并不总是送到最需要的地方。本文展示了企业在大流行中的失败风险如何取决于其适应大流行中不断变化的消费者偏好的固有能力。它展示了在一个特别受打击的行业——住宿行业——背景下的本地适应性,并认为通过考虑本地适应性,可以更有效地分配资金。
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引用次数: 2
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IO: Empirical Studies of Firms & Markets eJournal
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