This paper develops a model in which an arbitrageur may prefer to incur limits to arbitrage rather than seamlessly refinance his positions with other arbitrageurs in order to relax his capital constraints. Such deliberate limits to arbitrage arise because the sale of a position cannot be unbundled from the communication of the idea underlying it. The absence of property rights on arbitrage ideas implies that this creates future competition. We let arbitrage opportunities differ along the ease with which they can be identified and along the speed at which they mature. We find that such deliberate limits to arbitrage arise for arbitrage opportunities that are neither too slow nor too quick to mature. The range of maturities for which arbitrage is limited increases when arbitrage opportunities are easier to find.
{"title":"Deliberate Limits to Arbitrage","authors":"I. Makarov, Guillaume Plantin","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2023450","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2023450","url":null,"abstract":"This paper develops a model in which an arbitrageur may prefer to incur limits to arbitrage rather than seamlessly refinance his positions with other arbitrageurs in order to relax his capital constraints. Such deliberate limits to arbitrage arise because the sale of a position cannot be unbundled from the communication of the idea underlying it. The absence of property rights on arbitrage ideas implies that this creates future competition. We let arbitrage opportunities differ along the ease with which they can be identified and along the speed at which they mature. We find that such deliberate limits to arbitrage arise for arbitrage opportunities that are neither too slow nor too quick to mature. The range of maturities for which arbitrage is limited increases when arbitrage opportunities are easier to find.","PeriodicalId":431629,"journal":{"name":"Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Financial Economics eJournal","volume":"65 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-02-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126267694","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Peter G. Dunne, J. Forker, R. Powell, Andrey Zholos
It is generally accepted that excessive exuberance or gloom in investor sentiment contributes to booms and crashes in asset prices but, because of its complex interaction with other aspects of the valuation process, these effects are not easy to identify with statistical confidence and this limits the scope for crafting an adequate and early policy response. To fill this gap, we develop an ex ante valuation approach that assigns different measures of sentiment to separate roles in the valuation equation. One measure of sentiment is assigned to capture risk aversion effects, while a broader-based investor sentiment index is assigned to capture changes in the perceived prospects for long-term earnings growth. The ratio of equity valuation when sentiment variables are included in the valuation exercise to the valuation when they are excluded is an obvious indicator of sentiment effects but this is difficult to assess statistically. We show that the ratio of average squared ‘implied’ long-run earnings growth ‘with’ and ‘without’ sentiment produces a sentiment indicator that can be assessed with statistical significance. Out-of-sample testing using the Dow 30 index shows that sentiment effects can often be confidently identified as widespread, significant and large. We find that the growth ratio is more prescient as an early warning indicator of mis-valuations. Being able to draw attention to such statistically verifiable arbitrage opportunities in a timely fashion offers macro-prudential policy makers a more targeted policy response than making alterations to poorly focused policy instruments, such as interest rates.
{"title":"Formal Identification of Sentiment Effects in Asset Markets","authors":"Peter G. Dunne, J. Forker, R. Powell, Andrey Zholos","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2009192","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2009192","url":null,"abstract":"It is generally accepted that excessive exuberance or gloom in investor sentiment contributes to booms and crashes in asset prices but, because of its complex interaction with other aspects of the valuation process, these effects are not easy to identify with statistical confidence and this limits the scope for crafting an adequate and early policy response. To fill this gap, we develop an ex ante valuation approach that assigns different measures of sentiment to separate roles in the valuation equation. One measure of sentiment is assigned to capture risk aversion effects, while a broader-based investor sentiment index is assigned to capture changes in the perceived prospects for long-term earnings growth. The ratio of equity valuation when sentiment variables are included in the valuation exercise to the valuation when they are excluded is an obvious indicator of sentiment effects but this is difficult to assess statistically. We show that the ratio of average squared ‘implied’ long-run earnings growth ‘with’ and ‘without’ sentiment produces a sentiment indicator that can be assessed with statistical significance. Out-of-sample testing using the Dow 30 index shows that sentiment effects can often be confidently identified as widespread, significant and large. We find that the growth ratio is more prescient as an early warning indicator of mis-valuations. Being able to draw attention to such statistically verifiable arbitrage opportunities in a timely fashion offers macro-prudential policy makers a more targeted policy response than making alterations to poorly focused policy instruments, such as interest rates.","PeriodicalId":431629,"journal":{"name":"Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Financial Economics eJournal","volume":"16 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-02-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"117299537","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper explores a powerful calibration technique of local volatility models based on the fixed point algorithm. It proves to be more robust and generic than the standard Dupire Approach. We also show how to dramatically increase the performance of Monte Carlo simulations by means of techniques borrowed from quantum physics. In particular, we use operator theory combined with fast discrete random generation to construct fast, efficient and robust algorithms for production purposes. This contribution is an engineering piece of work.
{"title":"Local Volatility: Smooth Calibration and Fast Usage","authors":"A. Reghai, Gilles Boya, Ghislain Vong","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2008215","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2008215","url":null,"abstract":"This paper explores a powerful calibration technique of local volatility models based on the fixed point algorithm. It proves to be more robust and generic than the standard Dupire Approach. We also show how to dramatically increase the performance of Monte Carlo simulations by means of techniques borrowed from quantum physics. In particular, we use operator theory combined with fast discrete random generation to construct fast, efficient and robust algorithms for production purposes. This contribution is an engineering piece of work.","PeriodicalId":431629,"journal":{"name":"Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Financial Economics eJournal","volume":"26 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-02-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115275920","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
A stochastic model for pure-jump diffusion (the compound renewal process) can be used as a zero-order approximation and as a phenomenological description of tick-by-tick price fluctuations. This leads to an exact and explicit general formula for the martingale price of a European call option. A complete derivation of this result is presented by means of elementary probabilistic tools.
{"title":"A Parsimonious Model for Intraday European Option Pricing","authors":"E. Scalas, M. Politi","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2007737","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2007737","url":null,"abstract":"A stochastic model for pure-jump diffusion (the compound renewal process) can be used as a zero-order approximation and as a phenomenological description of tick-by-tick price fluctuations. This leads to an exact and explicit general formula for the martingale price of a European call option. A complete derivation of this result is presented by means of elementary probabilistic tools.","PeriodicalId":431629,"journal":{"name":"Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Financial Economics eJournal","volume":"7 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-02-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134178543","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The paper studies the impact of political intervention on a financial system that consists of banks and financial markets and develops over time. In this financial system, banks and markets exhibit three forms of interaction: they compete, they complement each other, and they co-evolve. Coevolution is generated by two new ingredients of financial system architecture relative to the existing theories: securitization and risk-sensitive bank capital. The authors show that securitization propagates banking advances to the financial market, permitting market evolution to be driven by bank evolution, and market advances are transmitted to banks through bank capital. Then they examine how politicians determine the nature of political intervention designed to expand credit availability. The authors find that political intervention in banking exhibits a U-shaped pattern, where it is most notable in the early stage of financial system development (through bank capital subsidy in exchange for state ownership of banks) and in the advanced stage (through direct lending regulation). Despite expanding credit access, political intervention results in an increase in financial system risk and does not contribute to financial system evolution. Numerous policy implications are drawn out.
{"title":"Notes on Financial System Development and Political Intervention","authors":"Fenghua Song, A. Thakor","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2010226","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2010226","url":null,"abstract":"The paper studies the impact of political intervention on a financial system that consists of banks and financial markets and develops over time. In this financial system, banks and markets exhibit three forms of interaction: they compete, they complement each other, and they co-evolve. Coevolution is generated by two new ingredients of financial system architecture relative to the existing theories: securitization and risk-sensitive bank capital. The authors show that securitization propagates banking advances to the financial market, permitting market evolution to be driven by bank evolution, and market advances are transmitted to banks through bank capital. Then they examine how politicians determine the nature of political intervention designed to expand credit availability. The authors find that political intervention in banking exhibits a U-shaped pattern, where it is most notable in the early stage of financial system development (through bank capital subsidy in exchange for state ownership of banks) and in the advanced stage (through direct lending regulation). Despite expanding credit access, political intervention results in an increase in financial system risk and does not contribute to financial system evolution. Numerous policy implications are drawn out.","PeriodicalId":431629,"journal":{"name":"Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Financial Economics eJournal","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-02-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130748582","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper will employ the concept of human security as a proxy for measuring the country risk component of frontier market bond credit spreads. A secondary goal is to propose several specific markers of human security and assess how they might perform together as measures of risk.
{"title":"Human Security as a Proxy for Country Risk in the Credit Ratings of Frontier Market Sovereign Bonds","authors":"Allan Dwyer","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2006079","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2006079","url":null,"abstract":"This paper will employ the concept of human security as a proxy for measuring the country risk component of frontier market bond credit spreads. A secondary goal is to propose several specific markers of human security and assess how they might perform together as measures of risk.","PeriodicalId":431629,"journal":{"name":"Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Financial Economics eJournal","volume":"41 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-02-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131123497","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The purpose of this note is to point out a link between the Yosida approximation for linear operators and the method for volatility interpolation developed in Andreasen and Huge (2011).
{"title":"Volatility Interpolation and Yosida Approximation","authors":"V. Lucic","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1998964","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1998964","url":null,"abstract":"The purpose of this note is to point out a link between the Yosida approximation for linear operators and the method for volatility interpolation developed in Andreasen and Huge (2011).","PeriodicalId":431629,"journal":{"name":"Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Financial Economics eJournal","volume":"7 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-02-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125451245","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper generalizes the mean–variance preferences to mean–variance–ambiguity preferences by relaxing the standard assumption that probabilities are known and assuming that probabilities are themselves random. It introduces a new measure of uncertainty, one that consolidates risk and ambiguity, which is employed for extending the CAPM from risk to uncertainty by incorporating ambiguity. This model makes the distinction between systematic ambiguity and idiosyncratic ambiguity and proves that the ambiguity premium is proportional to the systematic ambiguity. The merit of this model is twofold: first, it can be tested empirically; second, it can serve for measuring the performance of portfolios relative to their uncertainty.
{"title":"Capital Asset Pricing Under Ambiguity","authors":"Yehuda Izhakian","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2020179","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2020179","url":null,"abstract":"This paper generalizes the mean–variance preferences to mean–variance–ambiguity preferences by relaxing the standard assumption that probabilities are known and assuming that probabilities are themselves random. It introduces a new measure of uncertainty, one that consolidates risk and ambiguity, which is employed for extending the CAPM from risk to uncertainty by incorporating ambiguity. This model makes the distinction between systematic ambiguity and idiosyncratic ambiguity and proves that the ambiguity premium is proportional to the systematic ambiguity. The merit of this model is twofold: first, it can be tested empirically; second, it can serve for measuring the performance of portfolios relative to their uncertainty.","PeriodicalId":431629,"journal":{"name":"Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Financial Economics eJournal","volume":"37 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134349793","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Matteo Chinazzi, G. Fagiolo, Javier Reyes, S. Schiavo
As the recent crisis has forcefully suggested, understanding financial-market interconnectedness is of a paramount importance to explain systemic risk, stability and economic dynamics. In this paper, we address these issues along two related perspectives. First, we explore the statistical properties of the International Financial Network (IFN), defined as a weighted-directed graph where nodes are countries and links represent debtor–creditor relationships in equities and short/long-run debt. We investigate whether the 2008 financial crisis has resulted in a significant change in the topological properties of the IFN. Our findings suggest that the crisis caused not only a reduction in the amount of securities traded, but also induced changes in the topology of the network and in the time evolution of its statistical properties. This has happened, however, without changing the disassortative, core-periphery structure of the IFN architecture. Second, we perform an econometric study to examine the ability of network-based measures to explain cross-country differences in crisis intensity. We investigate whether the conclusion of previous studies showing that international connectedness is not a relevant predictor of crisis intensity may be reversed, once one explicitly accounts for the position of each country within the IFN. We show that higher interconnectedness reduces the severity of the crisis, as it allows adverse shocks to dissipate quicker. However, being central in the network may make countries that are not members of a rich club more vulnerable in times of crisis. Finally, we find strong evidence of nonlinear effects, once the high degree of heterogeneity that characterizes the IFN is taken into account.
{"title":"Post-Mortem Examination of the International Financial Network","authors":"Matteo Chinazzi, G. Fagiolo, Javier Reyes, S. Schiavo","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1995499","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1995499","url":null,"abstract":"As the recent crisis has forcefully suggested, understanding financial-market interconnectedness is of a paramount importance to explain systemic risk, stability and economic dynamics. In this paper, we address these issues along two related perspectives. First, we explore the statistical properties of the International Financial Network (IFN), defined as a weighted-directed graph where nodes are countries and links represent debtor–creditor relationships in equities and short/long-run debt. We investigate whether the 2008 financial crisis has resulted in a significant change in the topological properties of the IFN. Our findings suggest that the crisis caused not only a reduction in the amount of securities traded, but also induced changes in the topology of the network and in the time evolution of its statistical properties. This has happened, however, without changing the disassortative, core-periphery structure of the IFN architecture. Second, we perform an econometric study to examine the ability of network-based measures to explain cross-country differences in crisis intensity. We investigate whether the conclusion of previous studies showing that international connectedness is not a relevant predictor of crisis intensity may be reversed, once one explicitly accounts for the position of each country within the IFN. We show that higher interconnectedness reduces the severity of the crisis, as it allows adverse shocks to dissipate quicker. However, being central in the network may make countries that are not members of a rich club more vulnerable in times of crisis. Finally, we find strong evidence of nonlinear effects, once the high degree of heterogeneity that characterizes the IFN is taken into account.","PeriodicalId":431629,"journal":{"name":"Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Financial Economics eJournal","volume":"42 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-01-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122014031","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper studies optimal policy in a stylised New Keynesian model that is extended to incorporate imperfect substitutability between short-term and long-term bonds. This simple modification provides a channel through which asset purchases by the policy maker can affect aggregate demand. Because assets are imperfect substitutes, central bank asset purchases that alter the relative supplies of assets can influence their prices. In the model, aggregate demand depends on the prices (or interest rates) of both long-term and short-term bonds. To the extent that central bank asset purchases reduce long-term interest rates (over and above the effect of expected future short rates), aggregate demand can be stimulated, leading to higher inflation through a standard New Keynesian Phillips Curve. However, the imperfect substitutability between bonds that gives asset purchases their traction also reduces the potency of conventional monetary policy because reductions in the short-term nominal interest rate reduce the relative supply of short-term bonds, increasing the premium on long-term bonds. Nevertheless, a policy in which the policymaker uses asset purchases as an additional policy instrument can improve outcomes in the face of a negative demand shock that drives the short-term policy rate to its lower bound. This is true even if asset purchases policies are also subject to (both upper and lower) bounds.
{"title":"Asset Purchase Policy at the Effective Lower Bound for Interest Rates","authors":"R. Harrison","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1992980","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1992980","url":null,"abstract":"This paper studies optimal policy in a stylised New Keynesian model that is extended to incorporate imperfect substitutability between short-term and long-term bonds. This simple modification provides a channel through which asset purchases by the policy maker can affect aggregate demand. Because assets are imperfect substitutes, central bank asset purchases that alter the relative supplies of assets can influence their prices. In the model, aggregate demand depends on the prices (or interest rates) of both long-term and short-term bonds. To the extent that central bank asset purchases reduce long-term interest rates (over and above the effect of expected future short rates), aggregate demand can be stimulated, leading to higher inflation through a standard New Keynesian Phillips Curve. However, the imperfect substitutability between bonds that gives asset purchases their traction also reduces the potency of conventional monetary policy because reductions in the short-term nominal interest rate reduce the relative supply of short-term bonds, increasing the premium on long-term bonds. Nevertheless, a policy in which the policymaker uses asset purchases as an additional policy instrument can improve outcomes in the face of a negative demand shock that drives the short-term policy rate to its lower bound. This is true even if asset purchases policies are also subject to (both upper and lower) bounds.","PeriodicalId":431629,"journal":{"name":"Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Financial Economics eJournal","volume":"34 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-01-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128643376","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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