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Psychology, Stock/FX Trading, and Option Prices 心理学,股票/外汇交易和期权价格
Pub Date : 2012-01-25 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1992016
A. Beilis, J. Dash, Jacqueline Volkman Wise
The financial crisis of 2008 had many putative causes. Psychology was an important driver for human decisions underlying these causes. However, quantitative financial models have no “knobs” to dial psychology parameters, and so arguably cannot possibly cope with financial crises. We have no illusions of the difficulty of including psychology in financial modeling. Here we take a first step by considering how a particular aspect of psychology can influence an underlying security and subsequent option prices, in a quantitative model. The underlying security can be a stock or an FX rate. There are three steps. First we investigate how psychological regret and fear impact trading selling behavior. Second we use results from the first step to link this changed trading behavior with induced changes in underlying security prices. Third, we consider changes in option prices due to these induced underlying security price changes. The results can be expressed either as a modified effective dividend for stock options, a modified effective interest rate for FX options, or an unusual change in implied volatility. Options analysis for some USDCAD FX European options with implied parameters indicates this approach has some empirical relevance. The contribution of this paper is thus threefold: 1. The paper breaks ground by emphasizing the desirability of incorporating interdisciplinary explicit interaction between behavioral finance and securities modeling, 2. The paper provides a definite model with a quantitative mechanism of how a particular psychological behavior can influence the prices of some securities, and 3. The paper shows that this model can facilitate the description of some illustrative option data.
2008年的金融危机有许多假定的原因。心理学是这些原因背后的人类决策的重要驱动因素。然而,定量金融模型没有拨动心理学参数的“旋钮”,因此可以说不可能应对金融危机。我们对将心理学纳入金融建模的难度没有任何幻想。在这里,我们首先考虑心理的一个特定方面如何在定量模型中影响基础证券和随后的期权价格。标的证券可以是股票或外汇汇率。有三个步骤。首先,我们研究了心理后悔和恐惧对交易卖出行为的影响。其次,我们使用第一步的结果将这种改变的交易行为与基础证券价格的变化联系起来。第三,我们考虑由于这些诱发的基础证券价格变化而导致的期权价格变化。结果可以表示为股票期权的修改有效股息,外汇期权的修改有效利率或隐含波动率的异常变化。对一些带有隐含参数的美元兑加元外汇欧洲期权的期权分析表明,这种方法具有一定的经验相关性。因此,本文的贡献有三个方面:1。本文通过强调将行为金融学和证券建模之间的跨学科明确互动结合起来的可取性,从而开辟了新的领域。本文提供了一个特定的心理行为如何影响某些证券价格的定量机制的确定模型;研究表明,该模型可以方便地描述一些说明性期权数据。
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引用次数: 4
Media Coverage and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns in Indonesia 印尼媒体报道与股票收益的横截面分析
Pub Date : 2012-01-25 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2000692
Amelia Meidyawati
This research evaluates if the media coverage from newspaper affect Indonesia’s securities markets in the way that the more coverage a stock get, the lower the return will be and the less coverage, or even no coverage a stock get, the higher the return will be. If it is found, then the causes behind the media effect are going to be analyzed and chosen from three different causes, which are return and reversal drift, impediment to trade hypothesis, or Merton’s investor recognition hypothesis.The research data consists of monthly return of long-short portfolio of all stocks in Indonesia’s stock market that did not cease and is not newly listed from January 2006 to December 2010, which is formed by going long (buying) no-coverage stocks and going short (selling) high-coverage stocks. The first test which is conducted is diagnostic test (normality, heteroskedasticity, auto-correlation, and multicollinearity test) to the variables to ensure that the equations in this research have BLUE estimator. Then, the ordinary least square regression is applied to the capital asset pricing model, Fama-French three factor model, and Carhart four-factor model to see whether the media effect exists.This research found that the media effect does not exist because what is found is that return of high-coverage stocks is higher than return of no-coverage stocks in Indonesia’s stock market.
本研究评估报纸媒体报导对印尼证券市场的影响是否表现为报导越多,收益越低,报导越少,甚至没有报导,收益越高。如果发现了,那么媒介效应背后的原因将从三个不同的原因中进行分析和选择,分别是收益和反转漂移,交易障碍假说,或者默顿的投资者认知假说。研究数据为2006年1月至2010年12月印尼股市所有未停牌且未新上市股票的多空组合月收益,由做多(买入)无覆盖股票和做空(卖出)高覆盖股票组成。首先对变量进行诊断性检验(正态性检验、异方差检验、自相关检验、多重共线性检验),确保本研究的方程具有BLUE估计量。然后,将普通最小二乘回归应用于资本资产定价模型、Fama-French三因素模型和Carhart四因素模型,考察媒介效应是否存在。本研究发现媒体效应并不存在,因为在印尼股市中发现高覆盖股票的收益高于无覆盖股票的收益。
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引用次数: 0
A Comparison of Pre-Recession and Post-Recession Volatility in NIFTY NIFTY衰退前与衰退后波动性的比较
Pub Date : 2012-01-20 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1988809
Shanki Jain, M. Dash
Volatility is one of the key factors for an investor before investing in the capital market. High volatility is seen as a sign of investor nervousness, while low volatility is sign of confidence. Contrary to popular perception, volatility has not gone up in the recent past. This study analyses the volatility of NSE-NIFTY and its associated fifty stocks for a period of seven years (April 2004 - March 2011) using GARCH model. The study also compares the pre-recession and post-recession volatility, and analyses the effect of the global financial crisis on NIFTY volatility.
波动性是投资者在投资资本市场之前的关键因素之一。高波动性被视为投资者紧张的信号,而低波动性则是信心的信号。与普遍的看法相反,波动性在最近并没有上升。本研究使用GARCH模型分析了NSE-NIFTY及其关联的50只股票在7年期间(2004年4月- 2011年3月)的波动性。本研究还比较了经济衰退前和经济衰退后的波动性,并分析了全球金融危机对NIFTY波动性的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Is there Inter-Regional Systemic Risk Contagion? An Investigation of Inter-Regional Systemic Risk Spillover Effects using the ESS-indicator and Bank CDS Spreads 是否存在跨区域系统性风险传染?基于ess指标和银行CDS价差的区域间系统性风险溢出效应研究
Pub Date : 2012-01-20 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1994849
W. Lahmann
During the 2007-2009 financial crisis certain events in the American financial system affected financial markets around the globe. Moreover, since the onset of the euro zone sovereign debt crisis, the systemic risk in Europe also appeared to affect the banking sector risk in other regions. While both effects are mentioned frequently in the public discourse on banking sector risk contagion and regulation, a scientific examination of these inter-regional contagion effects is to the best of our knowledge not available. In this paper we fill this gap and analyze the inter-regional systemic risk contagion effects between the regional relative expected systemic shortfall (ESS) indicator and alternatively the regional bank CDS spreads of the American, Asia-Pacific, European as well as the Middle East and Russia sub-samples in Lahmann/Kaserer (2011) by means of Granger-causality tests and impulse response analysis in vector autoregressive frameworks during four sub-periods between October 2005 and April 2011.We find that during the financial crisis period the systemic risk in America leads the systemic risk in other regions and during the euro zone sovereign debt crisis period the impact of the European systemic risk on the banking sectors in other regions is more pronounced. Moreover, additional lead-lag relationships are observed.
在2007-2009年金融危机期间,美国金融体系中的某些事件影响了全球金融市场。此外,自欧元区主权债务危机爆发以来,欧洲的系统性风险似乎也影响到其他地区的银行业风险。尽管这两种效应在有关银行业风险传染和监管的公开讨论中经常被提及,但据我们所知,对这些地区间传染效应的科学检验尚不存在。在本文中,我们填补了这一空白,并在2005年10月至2011年4月期间,通过矢量自回归框架中的格兰杰因果检验和脉冲响应分析,在Lahmann/Kaserer(2011)中,分析了区域相对预期系统短缺(ESS)指标与美洲、亚太、欧洲以及中东和俄罗斯子样本的区域银行CDS利差之间的区域间系统风险传染效应。我们发现,在金融危机时期,美国的系统性风险领先于其他地区的系统性风险,而在欧元区主权债务危机时期,欧洲系统性风险对其他地区银行业的影响更为明显。此外,还观察到额外的领先-滞后关系。
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引用次数: 1
Option-Implied Equity Premia and the Predictability of Stock Market Returns 期权隐含的股权溢价与股票市场收益的可预测性
Pub Date : 2012-01-19 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1933617
M. Karoui
This paper proposes a novel approach to extracting option-implied equity premia, and empirically examines the information content of these risk premia for forecasting the stock market return. Our approach does not require specifying the functional form of the pricing kernel, and does not impose any restrictions on investors' preferences. We only assume the existence of put and call options which complete the market, and show that the equity premium can be inferred from expected excess returns on a portfolio of options. An empirical investigation of SP (ii) the implied equity premium consistently outperforms variables commonly used in the forecasting literature both in- and out-of-sample; (iii) at the cross-sectional level, stocks that are more sensitive to the implied equity premium have higher returns on average.
本文提出了一种提取期权隐含股票溢价的新方法,并对这些风险溢价的信息含量进行了实证检验,以预测股票市场的收益。我们的方法不需要指定定价内核的功能形式,也不会对投资者的偏好施加任何限制。我们只假设市场上存在完整的看跌期权和看涨期权,并证明股权溢价可以从期权组合的预期超额收益中推断出来。对SP的实证研究(ii)隐含的股票溢价始终优于预测文献中常用的变量,无论是样本内还是样本外;(3)在横断面水平上,对隐含股权溢价越敏感的股票平均收益越高。
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引用次数: 1
Analytical Pricing of CDOs in a Multi-Factor Setting by a Moment Matching Approach 基于矩匹配方法的多因素cdo定价分析
Pub Date : 2012-01-16 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1986805
A. Castagna, F. Mercurio, P. Mosconi
We try and apply the single-scenario version of the general model in Castagna, Mercurio and Mosconi (2010) to the pricing of CDOs. We are able to establish a unified approach to both evaluate the Credit VaR and the risk of structured products, and thus evaluate on a consistent and uniform basis the Economic Capital required to face unexpected credit losses, and the risk transferred out of the balance sheet via the securitisation activity. The approach avoids to resort to cumbersome numerical procedure, by retaining a closed-form feature that allows a quick and accurate pricing of CDO structures.
我们尝试将Castagna, Mercurio和Mosconi(2010)的通用模型的单场景版本应用于cdo的定价。我们能够建立一种统一的方法来评估信用VaR和结构性产品的风险,从而在一致和统一的基础上评估面对意外信用损失所需的经济资本,以及通过证券化活动转移出资产负债表的风险。这种方法避免了诉诸繁琐的数值程序,保留了一种封闭形式的特征,使CDO结构能够快速准确地定价。
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引用次数: 0
Islamic Private Equity: What is New? 伊斯兰私募股权:有什么新动向?
Pub Date : 2012-01-15 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1985389
O. Yousfi
The current paper analyzes similarities and differences between conventional and Islamic private equity (PE). Despite the financial subprime crisis and the lack of liquidities in financial markets, PE still play an important role in financing growing unlisted firms all over the world. However, conventional PE and Islamic PE display different features. First, Islamic PE funds have less investments opportunities and cannot diversify their projects across activities and sectors mainly because of the Shari’ah compliance criterion. For instance, the PE funds is composed of the managers team, the Shari’ah supervision board SSB and the supervision compliance officer SCO. Second, the choice of PE partnerships depends on the target’s performance, the Islamic scholars’ school and the religiosity degree of the country where they operate, and the SSB policy. Third, they bear varied and different risks from their conventional counterparts. As a consequence, Islamic PE financing is expensive and still not very competitive. Fourth, to overcome and mitigate risks, conventional PE funds can issue convertible securities and abandon prematurely bad quality projects. In contrast, Islamic PE funds are actively involved in the project only in specific cases and cannot exit prematurely the target but can sell gradually their stocks to cover their equity. Finally, financial modes vary according to the degree of involvement of the PE fund in the project and the pre-agreed arrangements between the entrepreneur and the PE fund.
本文分析了传统私募股权与伊斯兰私募股权的异同。在金融次贷危机和金融市场流动性不足的情况下,私募股权仍然在全球范围内为成长中的非上市公司提供融资方面发挥着重要作用。然而,传统体育和伊斯兰体育表现出不同的特点。首先,伊斯兰私募股权基金的投资机会较少,无法将其项目分散到不同的活动和行业,主要原因是伊斯兰教法的合规标准。例如,私募基金由管理者团队、伊斯兰教法监管委员会SSB和监管合规官SCO组成。其次,PE合作伙伴的选择取决于目标的绩效,伊斯兰学者所在学校和他们所在国家的宗教程度,以及SSB政策。第三,它们所承担的风险与传统银行不同。因此,伊斯兰私募股权融资成本高昂,而且仍然不太有竞争力。第四,为了克服和降低风险,传统PE基金可以发行可转换证券,提前放弃质量差的项目。相比之下,伊斯兰私募股权基金仅在特定情况下才积极参与该项目,不能过早退出目标,但可以逐步出售所持股票以弥补股本。最后,根据私募基金对项目的参与程度以及企业家与私募基金之间的预先约定,融资模式也有所不同。
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引用次数: 5
Empirical Evidence for State and Time Separable Preferences: Case Finland 状态和时间可分离偏好的经验证据:芬兰案例
Pub Date : 2012-01-11 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1985267
N. Virk
The study investigates the implications of modified utility specifications developed on the standard power utility assumptions for Finnish representative agent while breaking the state and time separable constraints. The estimations are carried out using returns on equity and bond returns with iterated GMM procedure. The results from Epstein and Zin (1991) and Campbell and Cochrane (1999) models show Finnish risk premia is time varying across the studied samples. We conclude Campbell-Cochrane model outperforms the competing models in producing plausible model parameters while suppressing specification errors. The diagnostic checks show model is able to capture variations in stock returns over time. It also commands a significant price of risk in cross-sectional regressions and even manages to do better than unconditional CAPM.
本研究以芬兰代表代理为研究对象,在打破状态与时间可分离约束的前提下,探讨在标准电力效用假设基础上制定的修正效用规范的意义。通过迭代GMM程序使用股本回报率和债券回报率进行估计。Epstein和Zin(1991)以及Campbell和Cochrane(1999)模型的结果表明,芬兰的风险溢价在研究样本中是随时间变化的。我们得出结论,Campbell-Cochrane模型在产生合理的模型参数同时抑制规范误差方面优于竞争模型。诊断检查显示模型能够捕捉股票回报随时间的变化。在横截面回归中,它也具有显著的风险价格,甚至比无条件CAPM做得更好。
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引用次数: 0
International Mutual Funds: MSCI Benchmarks and Portfolio Evaluation 国际共同基金:MSCI基准和投资组合评估
Pub Date : 2012-01-07 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1981327
George Comer, Javier Rodríguez
We examine the sensitivity of estimates of abnormal performance to models that vary in the degree to which they explicitly control for variation in the regional and emerging market allocations of diversified international mutual funds. Models based on the most commonly used global MSCI benchmarks indicate that the funds have average positive abnormal performance. This positive performance is driven by funds with the greatest emerging markets and Pacific region exposure. When we measure performance against a model which includes MSCI benchmarks for the U.S, Europe, Pacific region, and Emerging Markets, average fund performance turns negative and significant.
我们研究了异常表现估计对模型的敏感性,这些模型在一定程度上对多样化国际共同基金的区域和新兴市场配置的变化进行了明确的控制。基于最常用的全球MSCI基准的模型显示,这些基金的平均异常表现为正。这一积极表现是由拥有最大新兴市场和太平洋地区敞口的基金推动的。当我们用包含MSCI美国、欧洲、太平洋地区和新兴市场基准的模型来衡量业绩时,平均基金业绩变为负值,且显著。
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引用次数: 9
Efficient Laplace Inversion, Wiener-Hopf Factorization and Pricing Lookbacks 高效拉普拉斯反演、Wiener-Hopf分解与定价回溯
Pub Date : 2012-01-04 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1979227
S. Boyarchenko, S. Levendorskii
We construct fast and accurate methods for (a) approximate Laplace inversion, (b) approximate calculation of the Wiener-Hopf factors for wide classes of Levy processes with exponentially decaying Levy densities, and (c) approximate pricing of lookback options. In all cases, we use appropriate conformal change-of-variable techniques, which allow us to apply the simplified trapezoid rule with a small number of terms (the changes of variables in the outer and inner integrals and in the formulas for the Wiener-Hopf factors must be compatible in a certain sense). The efficiency of the method stems from the properties of functions analytic in a strip (these properties were explicitly used in finance by Feng and Linetsky 2008). The same technique is applicable to the calculation of the pdfs of supremum and infimum processes, and to the calculation of the prices and sensitivities of options with lookback and barrier features.
我们构建了快速准确的方法(a)近似拉普拉斯反演,(b)具有指数衰减Levy密度的广泛类别Levy过程的Wiener-Hopf因子的近似计算,以及(c)回溯期权的近似定价。在所有情况下,我们都使用适当的保形变量变换技术,这使我们能够应用具有少量项的简化梯形规则(外部积分和内部积分以及Wiener-Hopf因子公式中的变量变化必须在某种意义上兼容)。该方法的效率源于在条带中解析函数的性质(这些性质被Feng和Linetsky在2008年明确地用于金融)。同样的技术也适用于计算最高和最低过程的pdf,以及计算具有回看和障碍特征的期权的价格和敏感性。
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引用次数: 33
期刊
Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Financial Economics eJournal
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