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Economic returns of family planning and fertility decline in India, 1991–2061 1991-2061年印度计划生育的经济收益和生育率下降
IF 1.3 4区 经济学 Q3 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2021-04-20 DOI: 10.1017/dem.2021.3
Srinivas Goli, K. S. James, Devender Singh, V. Srinivasan, Rakesh Mishra, M. J. Rana, U. S. Reddy
Abstract Investment in family planning (FP) provides returns through a lifetime. Global evidence shows that FP is the second-best buy in terms of return on investment after liberalizing trade. In this study, we estimate the cumulative benefits of FP investments for India from 1991 to 2016 and project them up to 2061 with four scenarios of fertility levels. The findings suggest that India will have greater elasticity of FP investments to lifetime economic returns compared to the world average (cost–revenue ratio of 1:120). We have taken four scenarios for the goalpost, viz., 2.1, 1.8, 1.6, and 1.4. Although different scenarios of total fertility rate (TFR) levels at the goalpost (i.e., the year 2061) offer varied lifetime returns from FP, scenario TFR < 1.8 will be counterproductive and will reduce the potential benefits. With a comprehensive approach, if the country focuses more on improving the quality of FP services and on reducing the unmet need for FP to enhance reproductive health care and expand maximum opportunities for education and employment for both women and men, it can improve its potential to reap more benefits.
摘要:计划生育投资提供终身回报。全球证据表明,就投资回报率而言,计划生育是仅次于贸易自由化的第二佳选择。在这项研究中,我们估计了1991年至2016年印度计划生育投资的累积收益,并在四种生育率水平情景下预测了到2061年的计划生育投资收益。研究结果表明,与世界平均水平(成本收入比为1:120)相比,印度的计划生育投资对终身经济回报的弹性更大。我们为门柱设定了四种场景,即2.1、1.8、1.6和1.4。尽管目标柱(即2061年)的总生育率(TFR)水平的不同情景提供了不同的计划生育终身回报,但TFR < 1.8的情景将适得其反,并将降低潜在收益。采取综合办法,如果国家更加注重提高计划生育服务的质量,减少对计划生育的未满足需求,以加强生殖保健,最大限度地扩大妇女和男子的教育和就业机会,就可以提高其获得更多利益的潜力。
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引用次数: 3
Gendered migration responses to drought in Malawi 马拉维对干旱的性别移民反应
IF 1.3 4区 经济学 Q3 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2021-04-06 DOI: 10.1017/dem.2021.8
Luis Becerra-Valbuena, Katrin Millock
Abstract Migration is a common means of adaptation to weather shocks. Previous research has identified heterogeneous effects according to age, sex, and wealth, but little is still known about how marriage-related institutions affect such migration. Relying on a quasi-experimental identification strategy, we analyze marriage- and work-related migration in Malawi following large droughts, separating the effects for female and male migrants according to different age groups. The analysis based on stated motives of migration reveals marginal decreases in marriage-related migration among girls, but increases in marriage-related migration within districts for women in older age groups. We also find large increases in work-related between-district migration for boys, and to a smaller extent also for girls following severe drought. The results add to the evidence of the potentially adverse effects of migration as a coping mechanism following drought when other means of insurance do not exist.
摘要迁徙是适应天气冲击的一种常见手段。先前的研究已经确定了根据年龄、性别和财富的异质性影响,但对婚姻相关机构如何影响这种移民仍知之甚少。基于一种准实验性的识别策略,我们分析了大干旱后马拉维的婚姻和工作移民,根据不同年龄组将对女性和男性移民的影响分开。根据所述移民动机进行的分析显示,女孩中与婚姻有关的移民略有减少,但年龄较大的妇女在地区内与结婚有关的移民有所增加。我们还发现,在严重干旱后,男孩和女孩在地区间的工作移民大幅增加,但幅度较小。研究结果进一步证明,在没有其他保险手段的情况下,移民作为干旱后的一种应对机制可能会产生不利影响。
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引用次数: 7
A recent change in the relation between women's income and childbirth: heterogeneous effects of work-family balance policy 妇女收入与生育关系的近期变化:工作与家庭平衡政策的异质性影响
IF 1.3 4区 经济学 Q3 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2021-04-06 DOI: 10.1017/dem.2021.9
Min-Su Chung, Keunjae Lee
Abstract It has been widely perceived in South Korea that the rise in a woman's income is negative for her childbirth. This study tries to verify the hypothesis empirically because the Korean government initiated the basic plan for low fertility in 2006 and has constantly strengthened work–family balance policy since then. Our analysis using a household annual data over 18 years, 1999–2016, indicates that married women's economic power relates positively to childbirth for the period after 2006. We also find that the higher birth likelihood among top income quartile women is largely attributed to their better accessibility to maternity protection benefits. These findings imply that the government's efforts to support work–family balance have been successful to a certain extent. However, the benefits remain limited only to high-income women.
摘要在韩国,人们普遍认为,女性收入的增加对她的分娩是不利的。本研究试图实证验证这一假设,因为韩国政府于2006年启动了低生育率基本计划,并从那时起不断加强工作-家庭平衡政策。我们使用1999-2006年18年的家庭年度数据进行的分析表明,2006年之后,已婚妇女的经济实力与生育呈正相关。我们还发现,收入最高的四分之一女性生育的可能性更高,这在很大程度上归因于她们更容易获得产妇保护福利。这些发现表明,政府支持工作与家庭平衡的努力在一定程度上取得了成功。然而,这些福利仍然仅限于高收入妇女。
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引用次数: 1
The geography of climate migration 气候迁移的地理位置
IF 1.3 4区 经济学 Q3 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2021-03-29 DOI: 10.1017/dem.2021.6
M. Burzyński, F. Docquier, Hendrik Scheewel
Abstract In this paper, we investigate the long-term effects of climate change on the mobility of working-age people. We use a world economy model that covers almost all the countries around the world, and distinguishes between rural and urban regions as well as between flooded and unflooded areas. The model is calibrated to match international and internal mobility data by education level for the last 30 years, and is then simulated under climate change variants. We endogenize the size, dyadic, and skill structure of climate migration. When considering moderate climate scenarios, we predict mobility responses in the range of 70–108 million workers over the course of the twenty-first century. Most of these movements are local or inter-regional. South–South international migration responses are smaller, while the South–North migration response is of the “brain drain” type and induces a permanent increase in the number of foreigners in OECD countries in the range of 6–9% only. Changes in the sea level mainly translate into forced local movements. By contrast, inter-regional and international movements are sensitive to temperature-related changes in productivity. Lastly, we show that relaxing international migration restrictions may exacerbate the poverty effect of climate change at origin if policymakers are unable to select/screen individuals in extreme poverty.
摘要本文研究了气候变化对劳动年龄人口流动的长期影响。我们使用的世界经济模型涵盖了世界上几乎所有的国家,并区分了农村和城市地区以及洪水和非洪水地区。该模型经过校准,以匹配过去30年按教育水平划分的国际和国内流动性数据,然后在气候变化变量下进行模拟。我们将气候移民的规模、二元性和技能结构内因化。在考虑温和气候情景时,我们预测在21世纪,7000万至1.08亿工人的流动性响应。这些运动大多是地方性的或跨区域的。南南国际移民反应较小,而南北移民反应属于“人才流失”类型,并导致经合组织国家外国人数量的永久增长,仅在6-9%的范围内。海平面的变化主要转化为局部的强迫运动。相比之下,区域间和国际流动对与温度有关的生产力变化很敏感。最后,我们表明,如果政策制定者无法选择/筛选极端贫困的个人,放松国际移民限制可能会加剧气候变化的贫困效应。
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引用次数: 4
Gender norm conflict and marital outcomes 性别规范冲突与婚姻结果
IF 1.3 4区 经济学 Q3 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2021-03-25 DOI: 10.1017/dem.2021.7
Francisca M. Antman, Priti Kalsi, Soohyung Lee
Abstract We investigate the impact of male–female conflict over gender norms on marital outcomes. As marriage requires mutual agreement regarding the role of husband and wife, we hypothesize that a person who is less likely to encounter a potential mate with similar gender norms will face a lower chance of marrying. Even if two parties marry despite a difference in gender norms, their marriage may be more vulnerable to external shocks, making divorce more likely relative to their counterparts without gender norm conflict. Finally, we predict that in the presence of gender norm conflict, high-skilled individuals may be less likely to get or stay married relative to low-skilled individuals, as the former group faces better outside options. Estimates from an analysis of U.S. marriage markets differentiated by birth cohort, state, race, and skill level support our theoretical predictions. Additional extensions explore heterogeneous effects and additional outcomes such as the presence of children in the household.
摘要本研究旨在探讨男女性别规范冲突对婚姻结果的影响。由于婚姻需要双方对丈夫和妻子的角色达成一致,我们假设,一个不太可能遇到具有相似性别规范的潜在伴侣的人,将面临更低的结婚机会。即使双方在性别规范不同的情况下结婚,他们的婚姻也可能更容易受到外部冲击,相对于没有性别规范冲突的伴侣,离婚的可能性更大。最后,我们预测,在存在性别规范冲突的情况下,高技能个体相对于低技能个体可能更不可能结婚或保持婚姻,因为前者面临更好的外部选择。根据出生队列、州、种族和技能水平对美国婚姻市场进行的分析估计支持了我们的理论预测。额外的扩展探索异质效应和额外的结果,如家庭中儿童的存在。
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引用次数: 2
Mortality decline, productivity increase, and positive feedback between schooling and retirement choices 死亡率下降,生产力提高,教育和退休选择之间的正反馈
IF 1.3 4区 经济学 Q3 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2021-03-03 DOI: 10.1017/dem.2020.33
Z. Cai, S. Lau, C. Yuen
Abstract The twentieth century has seen a phenomenal decline in mortality and an increase in productivity level. These two important events likely affect people's choices of schooling years and retirement age. We first show that in a standard life-cycle model, positive feedback exists between optimal schooling years and retirement age choices. We then evaluate the impact of a mortality or productivity shock on an endogenous variable (schooling years or retirement age) by decomposing it into the direct and indirect effects, where the indirect effect arises from feedback from the other endogenous variable. Finally, we extend the model by including the utility benefit of schooling and show that a negative correlation of schooling years and retirement age is possible. Apart from clarifying the apparently similar concepts of positive co-movement and positive feedback, our results have implications relevant to the economic demography literature.
20世纪是死亡率显著下降和生产力水平显著提高的世纪。这两个重要事件可能会影响人们对受教育年限和退休年龄的选择。我们首先证明了在标准生命周期模型中,最优受教育年限和退休年龄选择之间存在正反馈。然后,我们通过将其分解为直接和间接影响来评估死亡率或生产率冲击对内生变量(受教育年限或退休年龄)的影响,其中间接影响来自其他内生变量的反馈。最后,我们通过纳入受教育的效用效益来扩展模型,并证明受教育年限与退休年龄可能存在负相关关系。除了澄清明显相似的积极联合运动和积极反馈的概念外,我们的结果还具有与经济人口统计学文献相关的含义。
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引用次数: 0
Does the expectation of having to look after parents in the future affect current fertility? 未来必须照顾父母的期望会影响目前的生育率吗?
IF 1.3 4区 经济学 Q3 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2021-03-02 DOI: 10.1017/dem.2020.35
K. Sakata, Colin McKenzie
Abstract This paper argues that the expectation of having to provide care for aging parents in the future may be a major factor contributing to the current low fertility rate in Japan. Using data from the 1998 and 2008 National Family Research of Japan (NFRJ) surveys and a Poisson-logit hurdle model, this paper examines whether the expectation of having to look after parents in the future affects a couple's current family planning. The first-stage model of a couple's family planning decision is a logit model which examines the decision of whether or not to have any children, and then in the second stage a Poisson model is applied to explain the number of children a couple has conditional on the couple having at least one child. The empirical evidence presented suggests that there are strong generational effects, and that for the post-war cohort, an increase in the probability of having to look after a parent increases the probability of a couple being childless.
摘要本文认为,未来必须为年迈的父母提供护理的期望可能是导致日本目前低生育率的一个主要因素。本文利用1998年和2008年日本国家家庭研究(NFRJ)的调查数据和泊松-logit障碍模型,研究了未来必须照顾父母的期望是否会影响夫妇目前的计划生育。夫妇计划生育决策的第一阶段模型是logit模型,它检查是否要孩子的决策,然后在第二阶段应用泊松模型来解释一对夫妇至少要一个孩子的情况下有多少孩子。所提供的经验证据表明,这会产生强烈的代际影响,对于战后的群体来说,必须照顾父母的概率增加会增加一对夫妇无子女的概率。
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引用次数: 1
Household expenditure and child health in Vietnam: analysis of longitudinal data 越南家庭支出与儿童健康:纵向数据分析
IF 1.3 4区 经济学 Q3 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2021-03-01 DOI: 10.1017/dem.2020.24
Trong‐Anh Trinh, Preety Srivastava, Sarah Brown
Abstract While the relationship between socioeconomic status and child health has been studied extensively in developed countries, evidence is limited for developing countries. This study makes an important contribution by examining the relationship between child health and household socioeconomic status in Vietnam, using household expenditure as an alternative measure. This also allows us to explore the mechanisms via which income affects child health, in which household consumption arguably plays a crucial role. We employ different measures of health that allow us to examine both long-run and short-run effects, and two alternative instrumental variables, the unemployment rate and rainfall deviation, to address the potential endogeneity of household expenditure. We find evidence of a strong positive impact of household expenditure on child health and the findings are consistent across age groups. Specifically, a 10% increase in expenditure will result in a weight gain of 213–541 g in a “typical” child. We also explore the effect of a range of exogenous adverse economic shocks on children's health.
摘要虽然发达国家对社会经济地位与儿童健康之间的关系进行了广泛研究,但发展中国家的证据有限。这项研究通过将家庭支出作为一种替代措施,研究了越南儿童健康与家庭社会经济地位之间的关系,做出了重要贡献。这也使我们能够探索收入影响儿童健康的机制,家庭消费可以说在其中发挥着至关重要的作用。我们采用了不同的健康指标,使我们能够研究长期和短期影响,以及失业率和降雨量偏差这两个替代工具变量,以解决家庭支出的潜在内生性问题。我们发现有证据表明,家庭支出对儿童健康有着强烈的积极影响,而且这些发现在各个年龄组之间是一致的。具体而言,支出增加10%将导致“典型”儿童体重增加213–541克。我们还探讨了一系列外源性不利经济冲击对儿童健康的影响。
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引用次数: 0
A meta-analysis of the literature on climate change and migration 气候变化与移民文献的荟萃分析
IF 1.3 4区 经济学 Q3 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2021-03-01 DOI: 10.1017/dem.2019.22
M. Beine, Lionel Jeusette
Abstract Recent surveys of the literature on climate change and migration emphasize the important diversity of outcomes and approaches of the empirical studies. In this paper, we conduct a meta-analysis in order to investigate the role of the methodological choices of these empirical studies in finding some particular results concerning the role of climatic factors as drivers of human mobility. We code 51 papers representative of the literature in terms of methodological approaches. This results in the coding of more than 85 variables capturing the methodology of the main dimensions of the analysis at the regression level. These dimensions include authors' reputation, type of mobility, measures of mobility, type of data, context of the study, econometric methods, and last but not least measures of the climatic factors. We look at the influence of these characteristics on the probability of finding any effect of climate change, a displacement effect, an increase in immobility, and evidence in favor of a direct vs. an indirect effect. Our results highlight the role of some important methodological choices, such as the frequency of the data on mobility, the level of development, the measures of human mobility and of the climatic factors as well as the econometric methodology.
最近对气候变化与移民的文献调查强调了实证研究结果和方法的重要多样性。在本文中,我们进行了一项荟萃分析,以调查这些实证研究的方法选择在发现有关气候因素作为人类流动驱动因素的作用的一些特定结果中的作用。我们编码了51篇在方法学方法方面具有代表性的文献。这导致超过85个变量的编码,在回归水平上捕获分析的主要维度的方法。这些维度包括作者的声誉、流动性类型、流动性措施、数据类型、研究背景、计量经济学方法,以及最后但并非最不重要的气候因素措施。我们研究了这些特征对发现气候变化的任何影响、位移效应、不动性增加的可能性的影响,以及支持直接影响与间接影响的证据。我们的研究结果强调了一些重要的方法选择的作用,如流动性数据的频率、发展水平、人类流动性和气候因素的测量以及计量经济学方法。
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引用次数: 63
Domestic and international migration intentions in response to environmental stress: A global cross-country analysis 响应环境压力的国内和国际移民意向:一项全球跨国分析
IF 1.3 4区 经济学 Q3 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2021-03-01 DOI: 10.1017/dem.2020.28
E. Bekaert, Ilse Ruyssen, S. Salomone
Abstract In light of increasing environmental stress and its likely implications for migration patterns, we conduct a cross-country individual-level analysis of the impact of self-reported exposure to environmental stress on people's migration intentions and their destination choice. We simultaneously model intentions to migrate domestically and internationally for 90 countries worldwide in 2010. We find that self-reported exposure to environmental stress increases the probability to intend to migrate both domestically and internationally in the coming year. In absolute terms, the largest impact is obtained for domestic migration, but controlling for the fact that this is the most common form of migration anyway, environmental stress particularly raises intraregional migration intentions. Overall, the effects on migration intentions to the different destinations are strongest in low- and middle-income countries in Africa and Latin America and the Caribbean, while in high-income countries, and in Europe particularly, environmental stress appears to spur only domestic migration intentions.
摘要:鉴于环境压力的增加及其对移民模式的可能影响,我们对自我报告的环境压力暴露对人们迁移意图和目的地选择的影响进行了跨国个人层面的分析。我们同时对2010年全球90个国家的国内和国际移民意向进行了建模。我们发现,自我报告的环境压力暴露增加了未来一年打算在国内和国际上迁移的可能性。从绝对值来看,国内移民受到的影响最大,但考虑到这是最常见的移民形式这一事实,环境压力特别提高了区域内移民的意愿。总体而言,在非洲、拉丁美洲和加勒比的低收入和中等收入国家,环境压力对不同目的地移民意愿的影响最大,而在高收入国家,特别是在欧洲,环境压力似乎只会刺激国内移民意愿。
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引用次数: 12
期刊
Journal of Demographic Economics
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