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Resiliency and Stock Returns 弹性和股票回报
Pub Date : 2018-02-07 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3218531
Jian Hua, Lin Peng, R. A. Schwartz, Nazli Sila Alan
We present resiliency as a measure of liquidity and assess its relationship to expected returns. We establish a covariance-based measure, RES, that captures opening period resiliency, and use it to find a significant nonresiliency premium that ranges from 33 to 57 basis points per month. The premium persists after accounting for an extensive list of other liquidity-related measures and control variables. The results are significant for both value-weighted and equal-weighted returns, when micro-cap stocks are excluded, and for a sample of large cap stocks. The premium is particularly pronounced when trading volume is high. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.
我们将弹性作为流动性的衡量标准,并评估其与预期回报的关系。我们建立了一个基于协方差的衡量标准RES,它捕捉了开盘期的弹性,并用它来发现每月33到57个基点的显著非弹性溢价。在考虑了大量其他与流动性相关的措施和控制变量后,溢价仍然存在。当排除小盘股和大盘股的样本时,结果对于价值加权和等加权回报都是显著的。当交易量高时,溢价尤其明显。作者们提供了一份互联网附录,可以在牛津大学出版社的网站上找到,就在最终发表论文的链接旁边。
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引用次数: 9
The Role of Information from International Bank Lending in Mutual Fund Equity Investing 国际银行贷款信息在共同基金股票投资中的作用
Pub Date : 2017-01-31 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3107644
Linda Allen, Suparna Chakraborty, Sonali Hazarika, C. Su
Bank loan rates include monopoly rents from private information obtained in the course of lending relationships. Despite insider trading restrictions, some studies using U.S. data suggest that this private information is utilized in managing mutual fund equity portfolios at bank-affiliated funds. This does not hold in the international context. We find that lending bank-affiliated international mutual funds restrict equity holdings in non-U.S. borrowing firms when affiliated banks initiate syndicated bank loans. Reduced bank-affiliated mutual fund equity holdings and more intensive lending are associated with increased monopoly rents in loan rates. These effects are most pronounced for borrowers in emerging countries.
银行贷款利率包含了在贷款关系过程中获得的私人信息的垄断租金。尽管有内幕交易限制,但一些使用美国数据的研究表明,这些私人信息被用于管理银行附属基金的共同基金股票投资组合。这在国际背景下是不成立的。我们发现,贷款银行附属的国际共同基金限制在非美国的股票持有。当关联银行发起银团银行贷款时,借款公司。银行附属共同基金股权持有量的减少和贷款集中度的提高与贷款利率的垄断租金上升有关。这些影响对新兴国家的借款人最为明显。
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引用次数: 0
Upside and Downside Capture Ratios: How to Make Them Come out the Way You Want 上行和下行捕获比率:如何使它们以你想要的方式出现
Pub Date : 2014-06-24 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3024136
R. Ferguson, Danny Meidan, Joel Rentzler
Upside and downside capture ratios are used to assess the quality of investment managers and investment strategies. We propose a theoretical model which predicts that the upside capture ratio is an increasing function of the measurement interval length and that the downside capture ratio is a decreasing function of the measurement interval length. The model also predicts that all measurement intervals’ capture ratios depend strongly on betas, not just alphas, and that short measurement intervals’ capture ratios are dominated by betas, hence are unreliable for assessing alphas. Consequently, capture ratios are problematic for assessing managers’ skill, but offer investment managers a wonderful opportunity to mislead clients.
上行和下行捕获比率用于评估投资经理和投资策略的质量。我们提出了一个理论模型,该模型预测了上行捕获比是测量间隔长度的递增函数,下行捕获比是测量间隔长度的递减函数。该模型还预测,所有测量间隔的捕获比都强烈依赖于贝塔,而不仅仅是阿尔法,并且短测量间隔的捕获比主要由贝塔控制,因此对于评估阿尔法是不可靠的。因此,捕获比率在评估经理的技能方面存在问题,但却为投资经理提供了误导客户的绝佳机会。
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引用次数: 0
A Note on the Interrelation of Volatility Puzzle, Equity Premium Puzzle, and Mean Reversion through State Dependent Preferences 从状态依赖偏好看波动性之谜、股权溢价之谜和均值回归的相互关系
Pub Date : 2014-01-09 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2377120
S. Choi, C. Giannikos
According to empirical studies, there is a systematic pattern in the temporal behavior of asset returns and this is related to the business cycle. We propose a simple model that captures this behavior. This model is built around a state dependent preference structure where the state dependency is related to the business cycle. In this setting the volatility puzzle, the equity premium puzzle and mean-reversion appear to be indeed interrelated phenomena. A necessary condition for the three puzzles to be explained is that the state variable is negatively correlated with the market portfolio cum business cycle.
实证研究表明,资产收益的时间行为具有系统的规律,这与经济周期有关。我们提出了一个捕捉这种行为的简单模型。此模型是围绕状态依赖的偏好结构构建的,其中状态依赖关系与业务周期相关。在这种情况下,波动性之谜、股票溢价之谜和均值回归似乎确实是相互关联的现象。解释这三个谜题的一个必要条件是状态变量与市场投资组合和经济周期负相关。
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引用次数: 3
Option Implied Volatilities and Corporate Bond Yields: A Dynamic Factor Approach 期权隐含波动率与公司债券收益率:一个动态因素方法
Pub Date : 2013-09-26 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1678677
Jian Hua
This paper estimates dynamic factors from the term structure of credit spreads and the term structure of equity option implied volatilities, and it provides a comprehensive characterization of the dynamic relationships among those credit spread factors and equity volatility factors. The paper finds strong evidence that the volatility factors, especially the volatility level factor, Granger cause credit spread levels, confirming the theoretical predictions of Merton (1974) in a significantly richer and more nuanced environment than previously achieved. Simultaneously, the paper also finds evidence of reverse Granger causality from credit spreads to equity volatility, operating through the slope factors, consistent with the market microstructure literature, which finds that price discovery often happens first in bond markets. Hence the results extend both the corporate bond pricing literatures, deepening our understanding of stock and bond market interaction and suggesting profitable trading strategies.
本文从信用价差的期限结构和股票期权隐含波动率的期限结构两方面估计了动态因素,并全面表征了信用价差因素与股票波动率因素之间的动态关系。本文发现了强有力的证据,表明波动因素,特别是波动水平因素,格兰杰导致信用利差水平,在比以前更丰富和更细致的环境中证实了Merton(1974)的理论预测。同时,本文还发现了信用利差与股票波动之间存在反向格兰杰因果关系的证据,通过斜率因素进行操作,与市场微观结构文献一致,发现价格发现往往首先发生在债券市场。因此,研究结果扩展了公司债券定价的文献,加深了我们对股票和债券市场相互作用的理解,并提出了有利可图的交易策略。
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引用次数: 1
Linearity-Generating Processes, Unspanned Stochastic Volatility, and Interest-Rate Option Pricing 线性生成过程,无跨度随机波动率和利率期权定价
Pub Date : 2011-03-18 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1789763
P. Carr, X. Gabaix, Liuren Wu
We propose to use the linearity-generating framework to accommodate the evidence of unspanned stochastic volatility: Variations in implied volatilities on interest-rate options such as caps and swaptions are independent of the variations on the interest rate term structure. Under this framework, bond valuation depends only on the transition dynamics of interest-rate factors, but not on their volatilities. Thus, interest-rate volatility is truly unspanned. Furthermore, this framework allows tractable pricing of options on any bond portfolios, including both caps and swaptions. This feat is not possible under existing exponential-affine or quadratic frameworks. Finally, the framework allows sequential estimation of the interest-rate term structure and the interest-rate option implied volatility surface, thus facilitating joint empirical analysis. Within this framework, we perform specification analysis on interest-rate factor transition dynamics and its relation to the interest-rate term structure; we also analyze the interest-rate volatility dynamics and its impact on interest-rate option pricing. We estimate several specifications for the transition dynamics to ten years worth of U.S. dollar LIBOR and swap rates across 15 maturities. We also estimate several interest-rate volatility dynamics specifications using ten years of swaption implied volatilities across a matrix of ten option maturities and seven swap tenors. The estimation results show that the volatility dynamics dictate the option implied volatility variation along the option maturity dimension, whereas the interest-rate transition dynamics dictate the implied volatility variation along the underlying swap maturity dimension.
我们建议使用线性生成框架来适应无跨越随机波动的证据:利率期权(如上限和互换)的隐含波动率的变化独立于利率期限结构的变化。在此框架下,债券估值仅取决于利率因素的过渡动态,而不取决于其波动性。因此,利率波动是真正无跨度的。此外,该框架允许对任何债券投资组合(包括上限和互换)的期权进行可处理的定价。这一壮举在现有的指数仿射或二次框架下是不可能的。最后,该框架允许对利率期限结构和利率期权隐含波动面进行顺序估计,从而便于联合实证分析。在此框架下,我们对利率要素变迁动态及其与利率期限结构的关系进行了规范分析;本文还分析了利率波动动态及其对利率期权定价的影响。我们估计了15个期限的10年期美元LIBOR和掉期利率的过渡动态的几个规格。我们还使用10年互换隐含波动率在10个期权到期日和7个互换期限的矩阵中估计了几个利率波动动态规范。估计结果表明,波动率动态决定了期权隐含波动率沿期权期限维度的变化,而利率过渡动态决定了隐含波动率沿标的掉期期限维度的变化。
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引用次数: 22
Consolidating Information in Option Transactions 整合期权交易中的信息
Pub Date : 2011-01-13 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1740046
R. Holowczak, Jianfeng Hu, Liuren Wu
Underlying each stock trades hundreds of options at different strike prices and maturities. The order flows from these option transactions reveal important information about the underlying stock price. How to aggregate the trade information of different option contracts underlying the same stock presents an interesting and important question for developing microstructure theories and price discovery mechanisms in the derivatives markets. This paper takes options on QQQQ, the Nasdaq 100 tracking stock, as an example and examines different order flow consolidation mechanisms in terms of their effectiveness in extracting information about the underlying stock price and volatility movements. The analysis leads us to propose an aggregation weighting scheme that depends both on the liquidity of each option contract and the contract's risk exposure, delta for stock price movement information and vega for volatility movement information. Based on this weighting scheme, we identify significantly positive correlations between the aggregate option order flows and the realized returns and volatilities. In particular, the delta buy pressure positively predicts the underlying return and the vega buy pressure positively predicts the change of volatilities.
每只股票都有数百种不同执行价格和期限的期权交易。这些期权交易的订单流揭示了有关标的股票价格的重要信息。如何整合同一股票的不同期权合约的交易信息,是衍生品市场微观结构理论和价格发现机制发展中一个有趣而重要的问题。本文以纳斯达克100指数跟踪股QQQQ期权为例,考察了不同的订单流整合机制在提取标的股票价格和波动率信息方面的有效性。通过分析,我们提出了一个集合加权方案,该方案既依赖于每个期权合约的流动性,也依赖于合约的风险敞口,delta代表股票价格运动信息,vega代表波动率运动信息。基于此加权方案,我们发现总期权订单流量与实现收益和波动率之间存在显著的正相关关系。其中,delta买入压力正预测标的收益,vega买入压力正预测波动性变化。
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引用次数: 1
Idiosyncratic Risk of New Ventures: An Option-Based Theory and Evidence 新创企业的特质风险:基于期权的理论与证据
Pub Date : 2010-12-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1343352
Xi Dong, Shuang Feng
This paper studies idiosyncratic risk of new ventures. An option-based model of a new venture with multistage investments and jumps is developed. Our model explains (1) why new ventures' 'idiosyncratic volatility eventually decreases as they clear RD (2) the negative relation between jumps in value and subsequent idiosyncratic volatility - the jump effect; (3) the dynamics of idiosyncratic volatility under different schedules of staged venture capital investments; and (4) the effect of different schedules of staged investments on firm valuation with the presence of jumps. Empirically, we develop a generalized Markov-Switching EARCH model to simultaneously capture structural changes in firms' 'idiosyncratic volatility and the relation between jumps and idiosyncratic volatility. Using a hand-collected dataset of early-stage biotech firms, we find empirical evidence supporting the jump effect and the stage-clearing effect described by our model.
本文研究了新创企业的特质风险。建立了一个具有多阶段投资和跳跃的新企业的期权模型。我们的模型解释了(1)为什么新创企业的特殊波动率最终会随着它们清除RD而降低(2)价值跳跃与随后的特殊波动率之间的负相关关系-跳跃效应;(3)不同阶段风险投资时间表下的特质波动率动态;(4)不同阶段投资计划对存在跳跃的企业估值的影响。在经验上,我们建立了一个广义马尔可夫切换EARCH模型,以同时捕捉企业特殊波动率的结构变化以及跳跃与特殊波动率之间的关系。利用人工收集的早期生物技术公司数据集,我们发现了支持跳跃效应和我们模型所描述的阶段清理效应的经验证据。
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引用次数: 0
Regulatory Remedies for Banking Crises: Lessons from Japan 银行业危机的监管补救措施:来自日本的教训
Pub Date : 2009-11-09 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1503000
Linda Allen, Suparna Chakraborty, W. Watanabe
In this paper, we utilize a hand gathered, bank specific database covering the period 1993 to 2007 to empirically examine the reactions of individual Japanese banks to governmental policies designed to end Japan’s financial crisis. Our unique database allows us to examine the composition of Japanese bank lending across three sectors (commercial and industrial lending, residential real estate and non-residential real estate), as well as aggregate lending activity. Our empirical results suggest that substantial risk-based capital infusions (similar to the 2009 stress tests in the US) were effective at stimulating aggregate bank lending activity, whereas regulatory forbearance (in the form of changes in accounting valuation procedures) had only allocative effects on bank lending activity. Our analysis indicates that across the board capital infusions (similar to the TARP capital infusions in October 2008) were ineffective in impacting bank lending activity during the Japanese financial crisis. Moreover, we find that regulatory capital was a binding constraint on Japanese banks, inducing some to switch their charter and abandon their international operations in order to reduce their capital requirements. We draw parallels to the public policy programs implemented in the US during the 2007-2009 financial crisis and conclude that policies must be substantial in size and risk targeted to be effective.
在本文中,我们利用一个手工收集的银行特定数据库,涵盖1993年至2007年期间,实证检验了日本个别银行对旨在结束日本金融危机的政府政策的反应。我们独特的数据库使我们能够检查日本银行在三个领域(商业和工业贷款、住宅房地产和非住宅房地产)的贷款构成,以及总贷款活动。我们的实证结果表明,基于风险的大量资本注入(类似于2009年美国的压力测试)在刺激总体银行贷款活动方面是有效的,而监管容忍(以会计估值程序变化的形式)仅对银行贷款活动具有配置作用。我们的分析表明,在日本金融危机期间,全面的资本注入(类似于2008年10月的TARP资本注入)在影响银行贷款活动方面是无效的。此外,我们发现监管资本对日本银行是一种约束性约束,促使一些银行改变其章程,放弃其国际业务,以降低其资本要求。我们将其与美国在2007-2009年金融危机期间实施的公共政策项目进行了对比,并得出结论认为,政策必须规模庞大,针对风险,才能有效。
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引用次数: 14
Financial Contracting with Strategic Investors: Evidence from Corporate Venture Capital Backed IPOs 与战略投资者签订财务合同:来自企业风险资本支持的ipo的证据
Pub Date : 2009-07-10 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.891605
Ronald W. Masulis, Rajarishi Nahata
We analyze financial contracting in start-ups backed by corporate venture capitalists (CVCs). CVCs' strategic goals can economically hurt or benefit the start-ups, depending on product market relationships between start-ups and CVC parents. Empirically, start-ups receive funding from both complementary and competitive CVC parents. However, start-up insiders commonly limit the influence of competitive CVCs, awarding them lower board power, while retaining higher board representation for themselves. Second, lead CVCs receive lower board representation, indicating heightened concerns about their greater influence in start-ups' early stages. Finally, start-ups extract higher valuations from competitive CVCs, reflecting greater moral hazard problems. Overall, CVC strategic objectives affect their early inclusion in VC syndicates, their control rights and share pricing.
我们分析了由企业风险资本家(cvc)支持的初创企业的财务合同。CVC的战略目标在经济上可能对初创企业不利,也可能对它们有利,这取决于初创企业与CVC母公司之间的产品市场关系。从经验上看,初创企业从互补型和竞争性CVC父母那里获得资金。然而,初创企业内部人士通常会限制竞争对手的影响力,赋予他们较低的董事会权力,同时为自己保留较高的董事会代表性。其次,领先的cvc在董事会中所占的比例较低,这表明人们对他们在初创企业早期阶段的更大影响力感到担忧。最后,初创企业从竞争对手那里获得更高的估值,反映出更大的道德风险问题。总的来说,CVC的战略目标影响着他们早期加入VC辛迪加、他们的控制权和股票定价。
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引用次数: 69
期刊
Baruch: Finance (Topic)
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