Pub Date : 2009-01-01DOI: 10.1201/9780203883020.ch177
J. Krywkow, T. Filatova, A. Veen
{"title":"Flood risk perceptions in the Dutch province of Zeeland : does the public still support current policies?","authors":"J. Krywkow, T. Filatova, A. Veen","doi":"10.1201/9780203883020.ch177","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1201/9780203883020.ch177","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":43561,"journal":{"name":"Management Research and Practice","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2009-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"65942498","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2009-01-01DOI: 10.1201/9780203883020.ch202
J. Leenders, J. Wagemaker, A. Roelevink, T. Rientjes, G. Parodi
{"title":"Development of a damage and casualties tool for river floods in northern Thailand","authors":"J. Leenders, J. Wagemaker, A. Roelevink, T. Rientjes, G. Parodi","doi":"10.1201/9780203883020.ch202","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1201/9780203883020.ch202","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":43561,"journal":{"name":"Management Research and Practice","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2009-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"65942509","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2008-09-01DOI: 10.1201/9780203883020.ch37
Mauricio Villazón, P. Willems
In a quasi two-dimensional approach, floodplains are modelled by means of a one-dimensional hydrodynamic modelling system through a network of fictitious river branches linked to the main river with spills. This paper analyses the effect of different spill model conceptualizations as well as the effect of selected head loss coefficients. A reduced area of the river Dender in Belgium was implemented in three different river modelling packages: Mike11, InfoWorks-RS and HEC-RAS. Simulations were conducted for three historical flood events and eight synthetic events. Evaluation and comparison was made for the maximum volume of water that passes through the banks to the flood branches, the peak discharges and the water levels in the floodplains. Varying the spill’s head loss coefficients shows variations less than 10 cm for the water level inside the floodplain, while the differences in results between the three modelling packages are as large as 25 cm.
{"title":"The importance of spill conceptualizations and head loss coefficients in a quasi two-dimensional approach for river inundation modelling","authors":"Mauricio Villazón, P. Willems","doi":"10.1201/9780203883020.ch37","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1201/9780203883020.ch37","url":null,"abstract":"In a quasi two-dimensional approach, floodplains are modelled by means of a one-dimensional hydrodynamic modelling system through a network of fictitious river branches linked to the main river with spills. This paper analyses the effect of different spill model conceptualizations as well as the effect of selected head loss coefficients. A reduced area of the river Dender in Belgium was implemented in three different river modelling packages: Mike11, InfoWorks-RS and HEC-RAS. Simulations were conducted for three historical flood events and eight synthetic events. Evaluation and comparison was made for the maximum volume of water that passes through the banks to the flood branches, the peak discharges and the water levels in the floodplains. Varying the spill’s head loss coefficients shows variations less than 10 cm for the water level inside the floodplain, while the differences in results between the three modelling packages are as large as 25 cm.","PeriodicalId":43561,"journal":{"name":"Management Research and Practice","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2008-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"65942557","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2008-09-01DOI: 10.1201/9780203883020.ch30
D. Lumbroso, M. Mens, M. Vat
There is a clear need for flood event managers to be able to improve the coordination of their response to flood events. The development of a flood event management Decision Support System (DSS) could assist flood event managers in this by providing information on the flood hazard, the receptors at risk and evacuation routes. This paper describes the development of a general framework for DSSs for flood event management. This framework has been piloted in the Thames Estuary in the UK and the Schelde Estuary in the Netherlands, resulting in the development of two prototype DSSs. Consultation with end users in the UK and the Netherlands indicated that a DSS for flood event management should provide the following: a database of “pre-run” flood events; mapping of the flood hazard; location of the receptors at risk (e.g. people, buildings, critical infrastructure); and details of safe havens and evacuation routes. The two DSSs allow users to compare hazards and risks related to flood event management, using the outputs from hydrodynamic and traffic management models.
{"title":"A framework for Decision Support Systems for flood event management-application to the Thames and the Schelde Estuaries","authors":"D. Lumbroso, M. Mens, M. Vat","doi":"10.1201/9780203883020.ch30","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1201/9780203883020.ch30","url":null,"abstract":"There is a clear need for flood event managers to be able to improve the coordination of their response to flood events. The development of a flood event management Decision Support System (DSS) could assist flood event managers in this by providing information on the flood hazard, the receptors at risk and evacuation routes. This paper describes the development of a general framework for DSSs for flood event management. This framework has been piloted in the Thames Estuary in the UK and the Schelde Estuary in the Netherlands, resulting in the development of two prototype DSSs. Consultation with end users in the UK and the Netherlands indicated that a DSS for flood event management should provide the following: a database of “pre-run” flood events; mapping of the flood hazard; location of the receptors at risk (e.g. people, buildings, critical infrastructure); and details of safe havens and evacuation routes. The two DSSs allow users to compare hazards and risks related to flood event management, using the outputs from hydrodynamic and traffic management models.","PeriodicalId":43561,"journal":{"name":"Management Research and Practice","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2008-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"65942516","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2008-01-01DOI: 10.1201/9780203883020.ch130
M. Mens, M. V. D. Vat, D. Lumbroso
{"title":"A comparison of evacuation models for flood event management application on the Schelde and Thames Estuaries","authors":"M. Mens, M. V. D. Vat, D. Lumbroso","doi":"10.1201/9780203883020.ch130","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1201/9780203883020.ch130","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":43561,"journal":{"name":"Management Research and Practice","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2008-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"65942459","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2008-01-01DOI: 10.1201/9780203883020.ch90
K. D. Bruijn, M. Mens, F. Klijn
{"title":"A method for developing long-term strategies for flood risk management","authors":"K. D. Bruijn, M. Mens, F. Klijn","doi":"10.1201/9780203883020.ch90","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1201/9780203883020.ch90","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":43561,"journal":{"name":"Management Research and Practice","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2008-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"65942572","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2007-04-01DOI: 10.1201/9780203883020.ch127
O. Boukhris, P. Willems
A methodology to analyze potential climate change impacts on hydrological extremes along rivers in Flanders (Belgium) has been developed. The results show that hydrological modelling techniques driven by climate modelling techniques and climate change scenarios enable a prediction of the long-term evolution of the hydrological system of the studied area. The hydrological system behaviour of the river Dender basin in the Scheldt River Basin District is modeled for an observed historical period and for a future change from the control period (1961-1990) to the predicted period (2071-2100) under forcing of a modified (predicted) climate. The climate induced impact on hydrological extremes is assessed through the comparison of key variables of the hydrological system for the two periods (e.g., runoff peaks, low flow values, overland flow and potential evapotranspiration). The modelling procedure is completed through 24 climate model simulations highly resolute (derived from the PRUDENCE climate project), local scale lumped conceptual hydrological models (NAM of DHI), hydrodynamic models (MIKE11 of DHI) and models for topographical information (DEM: Digital Elevation Models) and risk calculation models covering the studied area. An appropriate downscaling method has been developed counting for variable statistical properties as intensity and frequency. Follo wing this method, potential climate change scenarios for Flanders have been created based on sequences of low, mean and high variation factors for rainfall and potential evapotranspiration. The modelling results show significant reduction of the low flows due to a considerable hydrological regime modification. As for hourly high flows (flood risk), the results range from increasing to decreasing depending on the climate change scenario and counting for a large uncertainty. Overland flow follows similar patterns as for the high flows while evapotranspiration shows systematic increase as a result of regional warming. A statistical method has been implemented for the quantification of the modelling uncertainties induced by the created climate change scenarios. Also a sensitivity analysis has been performed on the climate change scenarios to assess their degree of sensitivity to the process used to generate them and the degree of sensitivity of the hydrological response in turn. has potentially a major impact, especially on economy and human life. These problems are enhanced by a climate change induced modification of the frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall events as well as periods with low rainfall volumes. The Scheldt River Basin District is likely to be sensitive to potential climate change impacts where the hydrological regime is strongly influenced by water accumulation variation throughout the different sub-basins. A modification of the prevalent climate, especially the variables of rainfall and evapotranspiration, can considerably affect this regime and induce important impacts on the wa
已经开发了一种方法来分析气候变化对佛兰德斯(比利时)河流沿岸水文极端情况的潜在影响。结果表明，在气候模拟技术和气候变化情景的驱动下，水文模拟技术能够预测研究区水文系统的长期演变。在一个修正的(预测的)气候强迫下，对一个观测到的历史时期和从控制期(1961-1990年)到预测期(2071-2100年)的未来变化，对斯克尔德河流域地区登德尔河流域的水文系统行为进行了模拟。通过比较两个时期水文系统的关键变量(如径流峰值、低流量值、地表流量和潜在蒸散)，评估气候对水文极端事件的影响。建模过程通过覆盖研究区域的24个高分辨率气候模型模拟(源自PRUDENCE气候项目)、局地尺度集总概念水文模型(DHI的NAM)、水动力模型(DHI的MIKE11)和地形信息模型(DEM:数字高程模型)和风险计算模型完成。针对强度和频率等可变统计特性，提出了一种适当的降尺度方法。根据该方法，基于降雨和潜在蒸散的低、平均和高变化因子序列，建立了法兰德斯地区的潜在气候变化情景。模拟结果显示，由于相当大的水文状况改变，低流量显著减少。对于每小时高流量(洪水风险)，根据气候变化情景，结果从增加到减少不等，并考虑到很大的不确定性。由于区域变暖，地表流表现出与高流量相似的模式，而蒸散发则表现出系统的增加。已经实施了一种统计方法来量化由所创造的气候变化情景引起的模拟不确定性。此外，还对气候变化情景进行了敏感性分析，以评估它们对产生这些情景的过程的敏感性程度，以及反过来对水文反应的敏感性程度。具有潜在的重大影响，特别是对经济和人类生活。这些问题由于气候变化引起的暴雨事件的频率和强度的改变以及降雨量少的时期而加剧。Scheldt河流域可能对潜在的气候变化影响很敏感，因为该地区的水文状况受到整个不同子流域的水积累变化的强烈影响。普遍气候的改变，特别是降雨和蒸散的变量，可以显著影响这一机制，并对水管理产生重要影响(Burlando等人，2002;Jasper et al.， 2004)。这可能对高度依赖水文制度的用水产生重大影响，如航行或灌溉，但也可能增加与水有关的风险，如洪水和低流量(Willis和Bonvin, 1995年;Loukas et al.， 2002)。因此，气候变化影响的预测具有明显的社会经济利益。基于欧洲气候项目PRUDENCE，本文介绍了用于评估气候变化对子流域极端水文影响的总体建模过程。比利时法兰德斯地区的丹德尔盆地和斯海尔德河流域地区的一部分被选为案例研究。案例研究区域:斯海尔德河流域国际区斯海尔德河流域从法国西北部延伸，经比利时至荷兰。总面积约36416平方公里。它是欧洲工业化程度最高的流域地区之一，人口密度最高(1280万居民)。国际斯海尔德河流域地区形态为丘陵，河流多为低地水道，坡度变化较大。该地区的佛兰德斯部分(比利时)主要是平坦的，最高海拔为157米。农业占该区土地利用的主导地位，总面积的61%主要由畜牧业和可耕地构成，但该盆地也高度城市化(13%)。不到10%的地区被森林覆盖。图1显示了本研究的比利时地区丹德尔河流域的位置。图1所示。3模拟方法气候变化影响评估主要是由模拟科学通过气候模型进行的。气候模式种类繁多，在空间和时间分辨率以及综合过程等概念上各不相同。 评估气候变化对水文领域的影响将导致处理两个复杂的基于物理的系统:气候系统和水文系统。不同的温室气体排放量迫使气候模型产生不同的未来气候可能图景。气候模式的输出用作水文模式的强迫输入。两个系统之间的接口连接应该允许气候信号正确地传递到水文系统，这被称为“降尺度过程”。在最后这一阶段，虽然对水文领域有价值的气候输出进行了经验分析，但一些气候模式的结果与实际观测结果不一致，因此对影响分析没有价值。这一程序允许从两个系统之间的接口向气候系统反馈，并有助于选择最能代表比利时(佛兰德斯)实际情况的气候模式。图2概述了评估气候变化对水文极端事件影响的模拟程序。选择PRUDENCE项目(http://prudence.dmi.dk)作为当前和未来气候调查所需的气候数据支持，以覆盖不同空间分辨率和不同时间聚合的研究区域。为此，PRUDENCE提供了一个瓦隆尼弗兰德斯
{"title":"Climate change impact on hydrological extremes along rivers in Belgium","authors":"O. Boukhris, P. Willems","doi":"10.1201/9780203883020.ch127","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1201/9780203883020.ch127","url":null,"abstract":"A methodology to analyze potential climate change impacts on hydrological extremes along rivers in Flanders (Belgium) has been developed. The results show that hydrological modelling techniques driven by climate modelling techniques and climate change scenarios enable a prediction of the long-term evolution of the hydrological system of the studied area. The hydrological system behaviour of the river Dender basin in the Scheldt River Basin District is modeled for an observed historical period and for a future change from the control period (1961-1990) to the predicted period (2071-2100) under forcing of a modified (predicted) climate. The climate induced impact on hydrological extremes is assessed through the comparison of key variables of the hydrological system for the two periods (e.g., runoff peaks, low flow values, overland flow and potential evapotranspiration). The modelling procedure is completed through 24 climate model simulations highly resolute (derived from the PRUDENCE climate project), local scale lumped conceptual hydrological models (NAM of DHI), hydrodynamic models (MIKE11 of DHI) and models for topographical information (DEM: Digital Elevation Models) and risk calculation models covering the studied area. An appropriate downscaling method has been developed counting for variable statistical properties as intensity and frequency. Follo wing this method, potential climate change scenarios for Flanders have been created based on sequences of low, mean and high variation factors for rainfall and potential evapotranspiration. The modelling results show significant reduction of the low flows due to a considerable hydrological regime modification. As for hourly high flows (flood risk), the results range from increasing to decreasing depending on the climate change scenario and counting for a large uncertainty. Overland flow follows similar patterns as for the high flows while evapotranspiration shows systematic increase as a result of regional warming. A statistical method has been implemented for the quantification of the modelling uncertainties induced by the created climate change scenarios. Also a sensitivity analysis has been performed on the climate change scenarios to assess their degree of sensitivity to the process used to generate them and the degree of sensitivity of the hydrological response in turn. has potentially a major impact, especially on economy and human life. These problems are enhanced by a climate change induced modification of the frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall events as well as periods with low rainfall volumes. The Scheldt River Basin District is likely to be sensitive to potential climate change impacts where the hydrological regime is strongly influenced by water accumulation variation throughout the different sub-basins. A modification of the prevalent climate, especially the variables of rainfall and evapotranspiration, can considerably affect this regime and induce important impacts on the wa","PeriodicalId":43561,"journal":{"name":"Management Research and Practice","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2007-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"65942448","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 1997-01-01DOI: 10.1016/s1067-5671(97)06022-8
S. Siha, B. Lutz
{"title":"The Application of Group Technology Principles to Service Operations: A Case Study","authors":"S. Siha, B. Lutz","doi":"10.1016/s1067-5671(97)06022-8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/s1067-5671(97)06022-8","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":43561,"journal":{"name":"Management Research and Practice","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"1997-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"56453133","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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