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EDITORIAL STATEMENT IN HONOR OF PROFESSOR MICHAEL MCALEER 纪念迈克尔·麦卡利尔教授的社论声明
IF 2 0 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-01-14 DOI: 10.1142/s2010495221010028
Moawia Alghalith, Norman R. Swanson, A. Vasnev, Wing-Keung Wong
It is with profound sadness that we write this statement for the former editor of this journal, our colleague and friend, Michael McAleer. Mike passed away peacefully on July 8, 2021, and he will be sorely missed by his vast number of colleagues and friends. Mike served on the editorial board of the Annals of Financial Economics (AFE) for more than 16 years and was the Editor-in-Chief since 2016. Mike was a wonderful friend, colleague, and mentor to all that knew him, and provided countless hours of service to AFE. He touched our lives deeply and was ever ready to lend a hand in any way he could, whether through his vast knowledge of econometrics, his willingness to work together on research projects, his efforts on behalf of this journal, or his contagious joie de vivre. We will miss him greatly. In the remainder of this editorial, we include a short biography, as well as a number of statements from co-authors, colleagues and friends of Mike.
我们怀着深切的悲痛为本刊的前编辑、我们的同事和朋友迈克尔·麦卡利尔写这份声明。迈克于2021年7月8日平静地去世了,他的众多同事和朋友将深深怀念他。Mike在《金融经济学年鉴》(AFE)编委会任职超过16年,自2016年起担任主编。对于所有认识他的人来说,迈克是一位很棒的朋友、同事和导师,他为AFE提供了无数小时的服务。他深深地触动了我们的生活,并随时准备以任何方式伸出援手,无论是通过他对计量经济学的渊博知识,他愿意在研究项目上合作,他为这本杂志所做的努力,还是他那富有感染力的生活乐趣。我们会非常想念他的。在这篇社论的其余部分,我们将包括一个简短的传记,以及一些来自迈克的合著者、同事和朋友的声明。
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引用次数: 1
ARBITRAGEUR BEHAVIOR IN SENTIMENT-DRIVEN ASSET-PRICING 情绪驱动型资产定价中的套利行为
IF 2 0 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-12-29 DOI: 10.1142/s2010495221500159
E. Kılıç, Oğuzhan Göksel
This study aims to model arbitrageur behavior in a sentiment-driven capital asset-pricing model under the premise of reflecting a more detailed decomposition of investor types in the equity markets. We explore the behavior and the impact of arbitrageur behavior, particularly, on pricing and on key financial ratios. We observe that the prevalence of the arbitrageur counteracts the effects of unsophisticated investors, resulting in a lower volatility of the price–dividend ratio, lower predictive power of changes in consumption for future price changes and lower equity premium. Thus, the results of our research allow us to conjecture that the extrapolation bias in the prices is lowered.
本研究旨在对情绪驱动的资本资产定价模型中的套利行为进行建模,前提是反映股票市场中投资者类型的更详细分解。我们探讨了套利行为及其影响,特别是对定价和关键财务比率的影响。我们观察到,套利者的普遍性抵消了不成熟投资者的影响,导致价格-股息比率的波动性降低,消费变化对未来价格变化的预测力降低,股票溢价降低。因此,我们的研究结果使我们能够推测价格的外推偏差降低了。
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引用次数: 0
NON-CENTRAL MOMENTS OF THE TRUNCATED NORMAL VARIABLE IN FINANCE 金融截断正态变量的非中心矩
IF 2 0 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-12-29 DOI: 10.1142/s2010495221500172
Fausto Corradin, D. Sartore
This paper computes the Non-central Moments of the Truncated Normal variable, i.e. a Normal constrained to assume values in the interval with bounds that may be finite or infinite. We define two recursive expressions where one can be expressed in closed form. Another closed form is defined using the Lower Incomplete Gamma Function. Moreover, an upper bound for the absolute value of the Non-central Moments is determined. The numerical results of the expressions are compared and the different behavior for high value of the order of the moments is shown. The limitations to the use of Truncated Normal distributions with a lower negative limit regarding financial products are considered. Limitations in the application of Truncated Normal distributions also arise when considering a CRRA utility function.
本文计算截断正态变量的非中心矩,即一个被约束为假定区间值的正态,其边界可能是有限的或无限的。我们定义了两个递归表达式,其中一个可以用闭形式表示。另一个闭形式是用下不完全伽玛函数定义的。此外,还确定了非中心矩的绝对值的上界。比较了这些表达式的数值结果,并显示了高阶矩值的不同行为。考虑了金融产品负下限截断正态分布的使用限制。当考虑CRRA效用函数时,截断正态分布的应用也会受到限制。
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引用次数: 0
STRATEGIC INTERACTIONS AND NEGATIVE OIL PRICES 战略互动和负油价
IF 2 0 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-12-28 DOI: 10.1142/s2010495221500135
Chenghu Ma, Xianzheng Wang
This paper argues on theoretical grounds that the negative oil prices event on April 20, 2020, was mainly due to the strategic interactions among some active traders on both sides of the futures contract. We present a three-player game of futures trading in which a continuum range of negative price can be supported as (strong) Nash equilibrium, yet none of those constitutes an [Formula: see text]-equilibrium originally developed by Ma (2009). We further propose the notion of coalition-with-side-payment as a solution concept for the environment where strategic interactions and transfer payments among players are allowed. Our model captures the mechanism underlying futures price manipulation, and its predictions largely agree with the observations on that day, which are beyond the scope of demand–supply and physical delivery narratives.
本文从理论上认为,2020年4月20日的负油价事件主要是由于期货合约双方一些活跃交易员之间的战略互动。我们提出了一个期货交易的三方博弈,其中负价格的连续范围可以被支持为(强)纳什均衡,但这些都不构成马(2009)最初提出的[公式:见正文]-均衡。我们进一步提出了与附带支付联盟的概念,作为允许参与者之间进行战略互动和转移支付的环境的解决方案概念。我们的模型捕捉到了期货价格操纵的潜在机制,其预测在很大程度上与当天的观察结果一致,这超出了需求-供应和实物交割的范围。
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引用次数: 2
INVESTOR SENTIMENT CONNECTEDNESS: EVIDENCE FROM LINEAR AND NONLINEAR CAUSALITY APPROACHES 投资者情绪关联性:来自线性和非线性因果关系方法的证据
IF 2 0 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-12-16 DOI: 10.1142/s2010495221500160
A. Tiwari, Deven Bathia, Elie Bouri, Rangan Gupta
This paper provides a novel perspective in determining the Granger causality of sentiment across the US, Latin America, Eurozone, Japan and Asia (excluding Japan), based on monthly data covering the period of January 2003–November 2017. Using a survey-based sentiment index of “sentix”, our results suggest strong evidence of nonlinearity and structural breaks making the use of linear causality models unreliable. Using a kernel-based multivariate nonlinear causality test, we find that causality runs from Eurozone to the US, Asia and Japan, with Japan also causing the Eurozone sentiment, and Latin America causing the Japanese sentiment. Interestingly, when we apply rolling estimations to detect time-varying causality for the cases of Eurozone and the US, Eurozone and Asia, Eurozone and Japan and Latin America and Japan, the results suggest evidence of bidirectional spillovers during certain months of the recent global financial crisis, and thereafter. Overall, our findings indicate that the sentiments of Japan, Asia and the US are related quite strongly with that of the Eurozone, as well as the sentiments of Japan and Latin America.
本文基于2003年1月至2017年11月的月度数据,为确定美国、拉丁美洲、欧元区、日本和亚洲(不包括日本)情绪的格兰杰因果关系提供了一个新的视角。使用基于调查的情绪指数“sentix”,我们的结果表明,有强有力的证据表明,非线性和结构断裂使线性因果关系模型的使用变得不可靠。使用基于核的多元非线性因果关系检验,我们发现因果关系从欧元区延伸到美国、亚洲和日本,日本也引起了欧元区情绪,拉丁美洲引起了日本情绪。有趣的是,当我们对欧元区和美国、欧元区和亚洲、欧元区与日本、拉丁美洲和日本的情况应用滚动估计来检测时变因果关系时,结果表明,在最近的全球金融危机的某些月份及其后,存在双向溢出的证据。总的来说,我们的研究结果表明,日本、亚洲和美国的情绪与欧元区以及日本和拉丁美洲的情绪有着非常密切的联系。
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引用次数: 6
CORPORATE VALUATION SPURRED BY INFORMATION TRANSPARENCY IN AN EMERGING ECONOMY 新兴经济体信息透明度对企业估值的影响
IF 2 0 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-11-20 DOI: 10.1142/s2010495221500111
Tran Thai Ha Nguyen, W. Wong, Gia Quyen Phan, D. T. Tran, M. Moslehpour
The stock price crash can result from lacking information transparency, especially in emerging economies characterized by weak corporate governance and high volatility. This study approaches corporate information transparency through the crash risk of stock prices on the Vietnamese market, develops a model that reflects the effect of information disclosure on corporate valuation, and employs two-step system generalized method of moments (S-GMM) estimation for panel data to deal with endogenous problems. This paper finds that the crash risk of stock price, referred to as the low level of information disclosure, creates a significantly negative effect on corporate valuation, expressing that information asymmetry causes serious issues for corporate prospects in the context of an emerging economy. Thus, corporates are suggested to enrich their information disclosure through periodic reports as a crucial mechanism to improve their transparency, reduce stock price crash risk, and enhance their valuation. This study also proposes related recommendations to enhance corporate governance and finance supervisory to maintain sustainability in the future.
股价暴跌可能是由于信息缺乏透明度造成的,尤其是在公司治理薄弱、波动性高的新兴经济体。本研究通过越南市场股票价格崩盘风险来研究公司信息透明度,建立了反映信息披露对公司估值影响的模型,并对面板数据采用两步系统广义矩量法(S-GMM)估计来处理内生问题。本文发现股价崩盘风险,即信息披露水平低,对企业估值产生显著的负向影响,说明在新兴经济体背景下,信息不对称对企业前景造成严重问题。因此,建议企业通过定期报告来丰富其信息披露,作为提高其透明度,降低股价崩盘风险,提高其估值的重要机制。本研究亦提出相关建议,以加强公司治理和财务监管,以维持未来的可持续性。
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引用次数: 10
EVALUATING THE EFFICIENCY OF VIETNAM BANKS USING DATA ENVELOPMENT ANALYSIS 基于数据包络分析的越南银行效率评估
IF 2 0 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-08-05 DOI: 10.1142/s201049522150010x
Do Thi Thanh Nhan, Kim-Hung Pho, D. Anh, M. McAleer
Efficiency is a topic of great interest because its applications are diverse and rich. It is applied greatly in all scientific disciplines, especially accounting for a very large proportion in economics, finance and accounting. The main objective in this paper is to analyze the effectiveness of banks in Vietnam. In order to investigate this issue, there are several implements to examine bank effectiveness where the data envelopment analysis (DEA) method is widely used. This paper presents details of the DEA method. Using the data collected from banks in Vietnam for the period 2014–2017, the approach is executed to investigate issues of technical efficiency, resource analysis and business efficiency of banks in Vietnam.
效率是一个非常令人感兴趣的话题,因为它的应用是多样和丰富的。它在所有科学学科中都有广泛的应用,特别是在经济学、金融学和会计学中占很大比例。本文的主要目的是分析越南银行的有效性。为了研究这个问题,有几种方法可以检验银行的有效性,其中数据包络分析(DEA)方法被广泛使用。本文详细介绍了DEA方法。利用2014-2017年期间从越南银行收集的数据,该方法旨在调查越南银行的技术效率、资源分析和业务效率问题。
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引用次数: 4
THE IMPACT OF CAPITAL STRUCTURE AND OWNERSHIP ON THE PERFORMANCE OF STATE ENTERPRISES AFTER EQUITIZATION: EVIDENCE FROM VIETNAM 资本结构和所有权对国有企业股份化后绩效的影响:来自越南的证据
IF 2 0 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-07-12 DOI: 10.1142/s201049522150007x
Nguyen Duy Suu, Ho Thuy Tien, W. Wong
The main objective of this paper is to study the impact of capital structure and capital ownership form of SOEs after equitization. We have considered all 137 state-owned companies after equitization for which data can be collected during the period from 2007 to 2017. These encompass companies in different industries listed on the HOSE (Ho Chi Minh City) and HNX (Hanoi) stock exchanges. To this end, we have applied REM and FEM models and corrected for variance with the GLS and FEM models. Our findings reveal that the variable leverage (LEV) has a negative impact on ROA, but, interestingly, has a positive impact on ROE and Tobin’s Q. Growth rate (GROWTH) have a positive effect on both ROA and Tobin’s Q. State ownership (SO) has only positive impact on ROA. Meanwhile, the company size variable (SIZE) has a positive impact on Tobin’s Q. In addition, in relation to our examination of how the domestic and foreign resources might impact on the profitability ratio, we have observed that the domestic equity ratio has a positive impact on both ROA and ROE whereas the foreign ownership ratio has a negative impact on both ROA and ROE.
本文的主要目的是研究国有企业股权化后资本结构和资本所有制形式的影响。我们考虑了股权化后的所有137家国有公司,这些公司的数据可以在2007年至2017年期间收集。其中包括在HOSE(胡志明市)和HNX(河内)证券交易所上市的不同行业的公司。为此,我们应用了REM和FEM模型,并对GLS和FEM的方差进行了校正。我们的研究结果表明,可变杠杆(LEV)对ROA有负面影响,但有趣的是,对ROE和托宾Q有积极影响。增长率(Growth)对ROA和托宾的Q都有积极影响,国家所有权(SO)只对ROA产生积极影响。同时,公司规模变量(size)对Tobin的Q有积极影响。此外,关于我们对国内外资源如何影响盈利率的研究,我们观察到,国内股权率对ROA和ROE都有积极影响,而外资持股率对ROA。
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引用次数: 4
CASES, DEATHS, STRINGENCY INDEXES AND INDIAN FINANCIAL MARKET — EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE DURING COVID-19 PANDEMIC 病例、死亡、严格指数和印度金融市场——COVID-19大流行期间的经验证据
IF 2 0 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-07-02 DOI: 10.1142/S2010495221500093
Shailaja Kheni, Santosh Kumar
The primary motive of the present study is to investigate the effect of COVID-19 pandemic on the Indian financial market. In this paper, we explain financial market volatility through stock market indices due to changes in the total number of COVID-19 cases, deaths and stringency index over a study period. The results of the study show that there exists a significant relationship between the total number of confirmed cases, total deceased due to COVID-19, and the country’s response towards pandemic i.e., stringency index and considered stock indices of Indian financial market. For the proposed analysis, we use ordinary least square regression models with residual diagnosis.
本研究的主要动机是调查COVID-19大流行对印度金融市场的影响。在本文中,我们通过股票市场指数解释了由于研究期间COVID-19病例总数、死亡人数和严格指数的变化而导致的金融市场波动。研究结果表明,新冠肺炎确诊病例总数、死亡总人数与印度应对大流行的程度,即印度金融市场的严格程度指数和考虑的股票指数之间存在显著关系。对于所提出的分析,我们使用带残差诊断的普通最小二乘回归模型。
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引用次数: 5
ZERO-INFLATED POISSON REGRESSION MODELS: APPLICATIONS IN THE SCIENCES AND SOCIAL SCIENCES 零平面泊松回归模型在科学和社会科学中的应用
IF 2 0 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-06-28 DOI: 10.1142/s2010495221500068
Buu-Chau Truong, Kim-Hung Pho, CONG-CHANH Dinh, M. McAleer
This paper makes a theoretical contribution by presenting a detailed derivation of a zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) model, and then deriving the parameters of the ZIP model using a fishing data set. This model has several practical applications, and is largely performed to model count data that have an excess number of zero counts. In the scope of the paper, we introduce the complete formulae, the likelihood and log-likelihood functions and the estimating equation of the ZIP model. We then investigate the theory of large sample properties of this model under some regularity conditions. A simulation study and a fishing data set are studied for the ZIP model. The results in the actual application in this work are meaningful, useful and crucial in reality. The results also provide reliable evidence for obtaining the largest number of fish while fishing. This is the contribution of this research in terms of applications. Finally, the important applications of this model in practice, some conclusions, and future work is also presented for consideration.
本文通过详细推导零膨胀泊松(ZIP)模型,然后使用钓鱼数据集推导ZIP模型的参数,做出了理论贡献。该模型有几个实际应用,主要用于对计数过多为零的计数数据进行建模。在本文的范围内,我们介绍了ZIP模型的完整公式、似然函数和对数似然函数以及估计方程。然后,我们在一定的正则性条件下研究了该模型的大样本性质理论。对ZIP模型进行了仿真研究和捕鱼数据集研究。这项工作的实际应用结果是有意义的、有用的,在现实中至关重要。这些结果也为在捕鱼时获得最大数量的鱼提供了可靠的证据。这是本研究在应用方面的贡献。最后,介绍了该模型在实践中的重要应用、一些结论以及未来的工作。
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引用次数: 2
期刊
Annals of Financial Economics
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