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A PROPOSAL FOR MULTI-ASSET GENERALIZED VARIANCE SWAPS 关于多资产广义方差互换的一个建议
IF 2 0 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2019-08-01 DOI: 10.1142/s2010495219500192
Subhojit Biswas, Diganta Mukherjee
This paper proposes swaps on two important new measures of generalized variance, namely the maximum eigenvalue and trace of the covariance matrix of the assets involved. We price these generalized variance swaps for financial markets with Markov-modulated volatilities. We consider multiple assets in the portfolio for theoretical purpose and demonstrate our approach with numerical examples taking three stocks in the portfolio. The results obtained in this paper have important implications for the commodity sector where such swaps would be useful for hedging risk.
本文提出了广义方差的两个重要的新度量的交换,即所涉及资产的协方差矩阵的最大特征值和迹。我们为具有马尔可夫调制波动性的金融市场的这些广义方差交换定价。出于理论目的,我们考虑了投资组合中的多个资产,并通过投资组合中三只股票的数值例子证明了我们的方法。本文得出的结果对大宗商品部门具有重要意义,因为此类掉期有助于对冲风险。
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引用次数: 1
DO EXCHANGE RATE CHANGES HAVE SYMMETRIC OR ASYMMETRIC EFFECTS ON INTERNATIONAL TRADE INTEGRATION? 汇率变化对国际贸易一体化的影响是对称的还是非对称的?
IF 2 0 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2019-08-01 DOI: 10.1142/S2010495219500131
S. Rajput, N. Ghumro, Nadia Anjum
This paper investigates whether exchange rate changes have symmetric or asymmetric effects on international trade integration, using quarterly time series data from 1980: Q1 till 2018: Q2. The recent innovation in cointegration techniques allows us to estimate nonlinear effects. We apply both linear autoregressive distributed lags (ARDL) and nonlinear ARDL models. The empirical results indicate that asymmetric relationship exists between exchange rate (REER) and international trade integration (ITI) in the short-run as well as in the long-run, meaning that real effective exchange rate has negative and statistically significant effects on international trade integration. Robustness checks indicate no role of various crisis including GFC on the relationship between ITI and REER, however, regime change has significantly negative impact in short-run and positive in long-run on ITI. The results are important because when we separate currency appreciation from the depreciation, it has the significant and different effects on international trade integration.
本文利用1980年第一季度至2018年第二季度的季度时间序列数据,研究了汇率变化对国际贸易一体化的影响是对称的还是非对称的。最近协整技术的创新使我们能够估计非线性效应。我们应用了线性自回归分布滞后(ARDL)和非线性ARDL模型。实证结果表明,汇率(REER)与国际贸易一体化(ITI)在短期和长期都存在不对称关系,这意味着实际有效汇率对国际贸易一体化具有负面和统计显著的影响。稳健性检验表明,包括GFC在内的各种危机对ITI和REER之间的关系没有任何作用,然而,政权更迭对ITI的短期影响和长期影响显著。结果很重要,因为当我们将货币升值和贬值分开时,它对国际贸易一体化有着显著而不同的影响。
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引用次数: 2
FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT, TECHNOLOGY AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT: THE ROLE OF INSTITUTIONS IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES 金融发展、技术和经济发展:发展中国家机构的作用
IF 2 0 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2019-08-01 DOI: 10.1142/S201049521950012X
Samina Sabir, Rashid Latif, Unbreen Qayyum, Kamran Abass
Financial sector development plays a pivotal role in the process of economic growth and development through mobilization of savings and creating investment opportunities. Financial development also increases the level of technology by providing finance to entrepreneurs for technological innovations which leads to economic growth. Moreover, financial markets develop rapidly in those countries which have strong legal system to enforce property rights, support private contractual arrangement and protect the rights of investors that can support real economic activities. Therefore, the presence of good quality institutions strengthens financial development which leads to technological development and growth. This study investigates the impact of financial development, technology and institutions on economic growth of selected developing countries over the time span of 1996–2015. This study extends the Augmented Solow growth model by incorporating variables such as financial development, technology, institutions and their interaction terms in the model. Due to endogeneity problem, the empirical model used in the study is estimated by System Generalized Method of Moments (System-GMM). Empirical results show that financial development, technology and institutions have very strong effects on the economic growth developing countries. To attain a sustainable economic growth, developing countries should develop their institutions which are necessary for the effective functioning of financial markets that stimulate economic growth by providing finance to entrepreneurs for innovations in technological sectors.
通过调动储蓄和创造投资机会,金融部门的发展在经济增长和发展过程中起着关键作用。金融发展还通过为企业家提供资金进行技术创新,从而提高技术水平,从而促进经济增长。此外,金融市场在那些拥有强有力的法律制度来执行产权、支持私人合同安排和保护能够支持实体经济活动的投资者权利的国家迅速发展。因此,优质机构的存在加强了金融发展,从而导致了技术的发展和增长。本研究考察了1996-2015年间金融发展、技术和制度对发展中国家经济增长的影响。本研究通过在模型中加入金融发展、技术、制度及其相互作用项等变量,扩展了增强索洛增长模型。由于存在内生性问题,研究中使用的经验模型采用系统广义矩量法(System- gmm)进行估计。实证结果表明,金融发展、技术和制度对发展中国家的经济增长有很强的影响。为了实现可持续的经济增长,发展中国家应该发展金融市场有效运作所必需的机构,通过向企业家提供资金进行技术部门的创新来刺激经济增长。
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引用次数: 7
ESTIMATING SECTORAL SYSTEMATIC RISK FOR CHINA, MALAYSIA, SINGAPORE, AND THAILAND 评估中国、马来西亚、新加坡和泰国的行业系统性风险
IF 2 0 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2019-08-01 DOI: 10.1142/S2010495219500118
T. Pham, D. Vo
This study examines the relative systematic risks of 10 industries in China and ASEAN-3, including Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand. We use four different approaches (ordinary least squares, least absolute deviations, MM-estimator and Theil–Sen estimator) and the weekly data from 2004 to 2016 to determine the sectoral systematic risk. The data are also divided into four sub-periods: the pre-crisis, crisis, post-crisis and normal periods. We find that the rankings of systematic risk, and the risk–return framework, for 10 industries vary from one country to another. The pairwise correlation analysis shows that significant correlation of sectoral ranks between estimation methods is found in China and Thailand, but not in Malaysia and Singapore. However, no correlations of industry rankings between China and ASEAN-3 countries for all the estimation methods for the full research periods and sub-periods are found. The sub-periods analysis also suggests that the rankings of systematic risk for industries in four countries across different economic periods are unstable.
本研究考察了中国和东盟三国(包括马来西亚、新加坡和泰国)10个行业的相对系统性风险。我们使用四种不同的方法(普通最小二乘、最小绝对偏差、mm估计和Theil-Sen估计)和2004 - 2016年的每周数据来确定行业系统风险。数据还分为四个子时期:危机前、危机后、危机后和正常时期。我们发现,10个行业的系统风险排名和风险回报框架因国家而异。两两相关分析表明,中国和泰国的估计方法之间的行业排名存在显著相关性,而马来西亚和新加坡则没有。然而,在整个研究期和子期的所有估计方法中,中国与东盟-3国家之间的行业排名都没有相关性。分时期分析还表明,四个国家在不同经济时期的行业系统风险排名是不稳定的。
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引用次数: 0
THE NEXUS BETWEEN ECONOMIC INTEGRATION AND GROWTH: APPLICATION TO VIETNAM 经济一体化与经济增长的关系:以越南为例
IF 2 0 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2019-08-01 DOI: 10.1142/S2010495219500143
Ha Nguyen, Ngoc Hoang Bui, D. Vo
The paper examines the relationship between the economic integration and growth nexus in Vietnam using powerful quantitative methods, specifically the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and the Granger causality test. The study focuses on three types of economic integration, including overall integration, financial integration and trade integration, which affected economic growth in Vietnam from 1986 to 2015. The key finding from this study is that when three types of economic integration are considered together, integration provides positive impacts on economic growth. In addition, causal relationship exists between overall integration and financial integration, and between trade integration and financial integration. As such, financial integration is absolutely important to economic growth in Vietnam. On the grounds of these findings, the Vietnamese government should carefully outline socio-economic development strategies to maintain political stability and to derive benefits from economic integration and globalization.
本文使用强大的定量方法,特别是自回归分布滞后(ARDL)和格兰杰因果检验,检验了越南经济一体化与增长联系之间的关系。本研究重点研究了三种类型的经济一体化,包括整体一体化、金融一体化和贸易一体化,它们影响了越南1986年至2015年的经济增长。本研究的主要发现是,当三种类型的经济一体化一起考虑时,一体化对经济增长有积极的影响。此外,整体一体化与金融一体化、贸易一体化与金融一体化之间存在因果关系。因此,金融一体化对越南的经济增长绝对重要。基于这些发现,越南政府应该仔细概述社会经济发展战略,以保持政治稳定,并从经济一体化和全球化中获益。
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引用次数: 15
VOLATILITY SPILLOVER EFFECT OF FEDERAL RESERVE’S BALANCE SHEET ON THE FINANCIAL AND GOODS MARKETS OF INDO-PAK REGION 美联储资产负债表对印巴地区金融和商品市场的波动溢出效应
IF 2 0 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2019-08-01 DOI: 10.1142/S2010495219500155
Q. Syed, Waseem Shahid Malik, B. Chang
This paper examines the volatility spillover effect of the balance sheet of Federal Reserve (Fed) on the financial and goods markets of Pakistan, India and Bangladesh (collectively known as the Indo-Pak region). Diagonal BEKK-GARCH methodology is used to capture the volatility spillover effects on Indo-Pak economies. This study took data from the year 2004 to year 2019 on a monthly basis. The findings of the paper describe that there are volatility spillovers from Fed’s balance sheet to the financial markets of Pakistan, India and Bangladesh economies. On the other hand, there is also evidence of volatility spillovers from the balance sheet of Fed to the goods markets of these economies.
本文考察了美联储资产负债表对巴基斯坦、印度和孟加拉国(统称为印巴地区)金融和商品市场的波动性溢出效应。采用对角线BEKK-GARCH方法捕捉波动性对印巴经济的溢出效应。这项研究收集了2004年至2019年的月度数据。本文的研究结果表明,美联储资产负债表对巴基斯坦、印度和孟加拉国经济的金融市场存在波动性溢出效应。另一方面,也有证据表明,美联储资产负债表的波动性会溢出到这些经济体的商品市场。
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引用次数: 11
FORECASTING REALIZED VOLATILITY DYNAMICALLY BASED ON ADJUSTED DYNAMIC MODEL AVERAGING (AMDA) APPROACH: EVIDENCE FROM CHINA’S STOCK MARKET 基于调整动态模型平均法的波动率动态预测&来自中国股市的证据
IF 2 0 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2019-06-21 DOI: 10.11648/J.IJAFRM.20190402.11
Ping-Hong Yuan
In this study, we forecast the realized volatility of the CSI 300 index using the heterogeneous autoregressive model for realized volatility (HAR-RV) and its various extensions. Our models take into account the time-varying property of the models’ parameters and the volatility of realized volatility. The adjusted dynamic model averaging (ADMA) approach, is used to combine the forecasts of the individual models. Our empirical results suggest that ADMA can generate more accurate forecasts than DMA method and alternative strategies. Models that use time-varying parameters have greater forecasting accuracy than models that use the constant coefficients.
在本研究中,我们使用实现波动率的异质自回归模型(HAR-RV)及其各种扩展来预测沪深300指数的实现波动率。我们的模型考虑了模型参数的时变特性和已实现波动率的波动性。调整后的动态模型平均(ADMA)方法用于组合各个模型的预测。我们的实证结果表明,ADMA可以比DMA方法和替代策略产生更准确的预测。使用时变参数的模型比使用常系数的模型具有更高的预测精度。
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引用次数: 2
MULTIFRACTAL BEHAVIOR IN PRECIOUS METALS: WAVELET COHERENCY AND FORECASTING BY VARIMA AND V-FARIMA MODELS 贵金属的多重分形行为:小波相干性及VARIMA和V-FARIMA模型预测
IF 2 0 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2019-04-21 DOI: 10.1142/S2010495219500064
Itir Doğangün, G. Unal
We introduce a new approach to improve the forecasting performance by investigating the multifractal features and the dynamic correlations of return on spot prices of precious metals, namely, gold and platinum. The Hölder exponent of multifractal time series is employed to detect the critical fluctuations during the financial crises through measuring the multifractal behavior. We also consider co-movement of Hölder exponents and forecast the Hölder exponents of multifractal precious metal time series on coherent time periods. The results indicate that forecasting of multiple wavelet coherence of Hölder exponents of multifractal precious metal time series is efficiently improved by using Vector FARIMA and VARIMA models.
本文通过研究贵金属(黄金和铂金)现货价格收益率的多重分形特征和动态相关性,提出了一种提高预测效果的新方法。利用多重分形时间序列的Hölder指数,通过测量多重分形行为来检测金融危机期间的临界波动。我们还考虑了Hölder指数的共同运动,并预测了多重分形贵金属时间序列在相干时间段上的Hölder指数。结果表明,Vector FARIMA和VARIMA模型有效地改善了多重分形贵金属时间序列Hölder指数的多小波相干性预测。
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引用次数: 0
FINANCIAL INTEGRATION AND MACROECONOMIC VOLATILITY: NEW EVIDENCE FROM DSGE MODELING 金融一体化与宏观经济波动:来自dsge模型的新证据
IF 2 0 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2019-04-21 DOI: 10.1142/S2010495219500076
Tarek Ghazouani, Ramzi Drissi, Jamel Boukhatem
This paper provides a brief overview of theoretical and empirical literature on financial integration and macroeconomic volatility nexus highlighting how the degree of financial integration affects the volatility of macroeconomic fundamentals. Using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model, our findings show that: (i) higher degree of financial integration tends to decrease short-run volatility; (ii) following monetary policy shocks, financial integration increases nominal exchange rate and output volatility and reduces both nominal and real interest rates and consumption volatility; and (iii) in response to fiscal shocks, financial integration stabilizes all variables under the assumption of perfect capital mobility.
本文简要概述了金融一体化与宏观经济波动关系的理论和实证文献,重点介绍了金融一体化程度如何影响宏观经济基本面的波动。运用动态随机一般均衡(DSGE)模型,我们发现:(1)金融一体化程度越高,短期波动率越低;(二)在货币政策冲击之后,金融一体化增加了名义汇率和产出波动性,降低了名义利率和实际利率以及消费波动性;(三)为应对财政冲击,在资本流动性完美的假设下,金融一体化稳定了所有变量。
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引用次数: 6
PASS-THROUGH RATE STUDY FOR HONG KONG BANKING INDUSTRY AND ITS APPLICATION TO NONMATURITY DEPOSITS INTEREST RATE RISK MANAGEMENT 香港银行业传递利率研究及其在非到期存款利率风险管理中的应用
IF 2 0 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2019-04-21 DOI: 10.1142/S201049521950009X
Zhifeng Wang, Fangying Wei, Yuzhou Fang
Basel Committee on Banking Supervision published Standards on Interest Rate Risk in Banking Book in April 2016. Apart from others, it proposed a standardized framework under which banks should identify core and noncore deposits within their stable nonmaturity deposits (NMD) and determine appropriate cash flow slotting for the NMD. This paper proposed a unique solution to slot Core NMD into repricing time buckets to address Basel requirements on NMD. The proposed solution was based on pass-through rate model under ECM (error correction model) framework. The solution itself showed interesting mathematical property to form a generalized Fibonacci sequence with converged partial sum. What is more, this paper proposed a model-neutral back testing scheme to make objective comparison of performance across different NMD repricing behavior models. The contents of this paper are expected to be useful for practitioners due to lack of quantitative modeling and model validation methodologies on this topic in the industry while, at the same time, to motivate academic discussion on the best practice and further enhancement of the modeling approach for the industry.
巴塞尔银行监管委员会于2016年4月发布了《银行账簿利率风险标准》。除其他外,它还提出了一个标准化框架,根据该框架,银行应在其稳定非到期存款(NMD)中识别核心和非核心存款,并为NMD确定适当的现金流槽。本文提出了一种独特的解决方案,将核心NMD插入到重新定价时间桶中,以满足巴塞尔对NMD的要求。该方案基于ECM(纠错模型)框架下的通过率模型。解本身显示出有趣的数学性质,形成了一个具有收敛部分和的广义斐波那契数列。此外,本文还提出了一种模型中立的反测试方案,对不同NMD再定价行为模型的性能进行客观比较。由于行业中缺乏对该主题的定量建模和模型验证方法,本文的内容有望对从业者有所帮助,同时激发学术界对最佳实践的讨论,并进一步提高行业的建模方法。
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引用次数: 2
期刊
Annals of Financial Economics
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