Central Bank Review最新文献

This paper investigates the impact of macroprudential policies and uncertainty of economic environment on corporate leverage dynamics over the last decade. This is the first study to investigate the impact of macroprudential policies and uncertainty on leverage dynamics of Turkish non-financial firms using firm-level data. We argue in this paper that persistence of uncertainty should be a more appropriate factor affecting credit dynamics rather than uncertainty. In that sense, we construct a measure of uncertainty by using principal component analysis and a measure of persistence of uncertainty for Turkey. Results from the dynamic panel models with a large set of control variables, provide significant evidence in support of the argument that leverage decisions are affected from the persistence of uncertainty rather than the uncertainty itself. Moreover, both the share of the financial debt in total liabilities and the leverage of Turkish non-financial firms decrease significantly when uncertainty increases persistently and when macroprudential policy tools are tightened. Most strikingly, this is the case only for Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises but not for large firms.

Purpose

The financing of growth of the firm is quite sensitive to fluctuations in Fund rates. This requires a treatment of Fund rates being subject to structural shifts. This paper examines the impact of threshold Federal Fund Rate (FFR), being a proxy for Federal Reserve policy, on different dimensions of growth of the US firm. The goal is to examine the extent to which shifts in FFR cause changes in firms’ growth using three main proxies: assets, sales revenue and number of employees.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper follows “Threshold Fixed Effect” model as a new methodological treatment that offers a structural change in the sources of funds for financing growth of the firms. The authors propose that “Threshold Fixed effect regression” and “Threshold First Difference Generalized Method of Moments” provide robust results of the impact of FFR shifts on growth of the firms.

Findings

The main findings are as follows. First, the impact of FFR is substantially significant on growth of the firms listed in S&P500 when FFR declines below the threshold point 1.35 percent. That is, a slight move in the FFR adversely affects growth of firms four times higher relative to the situation when FFR is greater than 1.35 percent. Second, as far as actual Fund rates are fluctuating around zero percent, the results show that each one percent increase in the FFR is associated with a decrease in the firm size by 0.5 percent.

Originality/value

This paper offers three significant contributions to the literature. First, this paper offers a novel treatment of the effect of Fund rates on the financing of growth of the firm. As far as the authors’ knowledge is concerned, this paper might be the first attempt to use “Threshold fixed effect” model to estimate the effects of threshold FFR on growth of the firm. Second, the results of threshold FFR offer robust evidence that theories of firm capital structure are contingent on structural changes in threshold interest rates. Third, this paper provides an empirical guidline to central banks regrading the determination of Fund rates that help firms to grow.

This study examines the impact of trade and financial integration on structural transformation relying on data from 28 countries in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) over the period 1985–2015. Results from our system generalized method of moments (GMM) show that, trade and financial integration significantly spur manufacturing and agricultural sector value additions. However, for the industrial sector, only financial integration robustly influences industrial growth with no effect on the service sector. Further evidence also suggests that trade and financial integration are complementary to each other and do not operate independently to influence structural transformation in SSA.

It is a well-established regularity that permanent oil price shocks do not have a permanent effect on the current account deficit. This requires that sub-components of the current account or trade balance will make the necessary adjustments to accommodate the higher energy bill of a country triggered by permanent crude oil price increases. Empirical evidence gathered from Turkey reveals that, in the long run, balancing the current account is provided by a permanent increase in the net exports of Agricultural Production, Maintenance and Repair Services, Travel, Construction, Financial Services, Compensation of Employees, and Goods under Merchanting (non-tradable components of the current account balance); and a permanent decrease in the net exports of Mining, Fishery, Other Goods for BEC Classification, Investment Income, Manufacturing Services on Physical Inputs Owned by Others, and Transport balances mostly in sectors that use energy heavily in production. All these responses are found to be statistically significant in the more than 24 periods we consider in this study.

This study discusses various types of market-based instruments and tries to find which financial instrument is the best in predicting monetary policy expectations for different time horizons in Turkey. Consistent with the existing literature on this subject, we adopt an approach that comes from expectations theory of term structure of interest rates, which implies that short term forward interest rates reflect market expectations of short term rates in the future. By using this methodology, we treat upcoming monthly, 3-months, 6-months, 9-months, 12-months, and 24-months average of daily CBRT effective policy rates as alternative dependent variables; and market rates with corresponding maturities as independent variables. We aim to assess which market rate has the best predictive power for CBRT effective policy rates. We find that FX forward implied rates dominate all other instruments for 3, 6, 9, 12 and 24 months horizons while Borsa Istanbul overnight repo rate expectation from CBRT’s Survey of Expectations is the best for 1-month horizon in forecasting future policy rates. We also note that CBRT’s monetary policy predictability also changes with CBRT’s choice of monetary policy implementation.

In this paper, we examine the labour market properties of business cycle fluctuations for a group of 15 emerging market economies (EMEs) and the US using annual data from 1970 to 2013. We find that on average, the hours worked and employment volatility (relative to output volatility) are lower, while the volatility of productivity and wages are 2–3 times higher in EMEs compared to the US. We then assess the performance of a standard RBC model and an augmented RBC model with capacity utilization, investment adjustment cost and indivisible labour with temporary and permanent productivity shocks to explain labour market facts observed in the data. We find that these models fail to explain labour market fluctuations in the business cycles of these countries, but the model with investment adjustment cost improves the performance of relative volatility of wages and hours, as well as the cyclicality of hours, compared to the standard RBC model. Lastly, we investigate the cyclical properties of the labour wedge and find that the total labour wedge (relative to output volatility) is more volatile over the business cycle in emerging economies (1.72) compared to the US (0.95). Further, fluctuations in the total labour wedge reflect the ones in the household component rather than the firm component of the wedge in EMEs and the US.

Noticing the visible hand of state capitalism in global production and value chain system, this study examines the outward foreign direct investment strategy of sovereign wealth funds (SWFs). Leveraging theoretical insights from the conventional political economy and international business literature, the study first conceptualizes a yield institutions-based view—marketization to sustainable competitive advantage—to gain a better understanding of the main purposes and economic and institutional determinants of SWFs. Efforts have been made to deepen the institutions-based perspective of global strategy and introduce it into, establish its relevance to SWFs research. Second, the study presents SWFs' outward FDI patterns and acquisition deals in times of global financial market turbulence. Findings suggest that SWFs’ outward FDI choices are primarily determined by institutional transitions, market development and government legitimacy in the home country, thus to invest globally, earn higher economic returns, and secure resources. These choices are firmly motivated toward advanced financial markets, and real estate and infrastructure sectors. Third and last, the study discusses several important implications for state capitalism, policymakers, and sustainable development.