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THE IMPACT OF TECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESS ON THE REAL SECTOR IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA 技术进步对撒哈拉以南非洲实体部门的影响
IF 1 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-07-25 DOI: 10.1142/s2194565924500027
Akinlo Taiwo
This study aimed to investigate the relationship between information technology and the real sector in sub-Saharan Africa during the period 1995–2019. The study proxied the real sector by industrial value-added, agriculture value-added and total factor productivity, while technological progress is proxied by fixed telephone, mobile phone and internet penetration. To achieve the objective of this study, dynamic models were estimated. The study found that the fixed telephone enhances industrial value-added and total factor productivity, while the mobile phone promotes all the proxies of the real sector. The study found that the internet does not contribute to industrial value-added or agriculture value-added, but it enhances total factor productivity. Sub-Saharan African countries can further benefit from technological advancement by providing infrastructure facilities.
本研究旨在调查 1995-2019 年期间信息技术与撒哈拉以南非洲实体部门之间的关系。研究以工业附加值、农业附加值和全要素生产率来代表实体部门,而技术进步则以固定电话、移动电话和互联网的普及率来代表。为实现研究目标,对动态模型进行了估算。研究发现,固定电话提高了工业附加值和全要素生产率,而移动电话则促进了实体部门的所有指标。研究发现,互联网对工业增加值或农业增加值没有贡献,但它提高了全要素生产率。撒哈拉以南非洲国家可以通过提供基础设施进一步受益于技术进步。
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引用次数: 0
NEWS AND INFORMATION RIGIDITY: FURTHER EVIDENCE FROM GDP GROWTH FORECASTS 新闻与信息刚性:GDP 增长预测的进一步证据
IF 1 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-07-16 DOI: 10.1142/s2194565924500039
Fazlul Miah
The study investigates the existence and the extent of information rigidity in gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecasts among 25 developed and 18 developing economies during 2002–2017 period utilizing a survey dataset never explored before on this issue. In general, the study finds ample evidence of information rigidity. However, it is not as common and as severe as it is in earlier studies. Our study also finds ample evidence of overreaction to new information. Information rigidity is present during the recession period for the developed countries, and we find some evidence of information gathering picking up during the recession period. Overall, we notice less forecast rigidity or inefficiency in our study compared to some earlier studies. Our multi-country test results show that forecast revisions depend on both own country and cross-country lagged revisions. In general, forecast revisions of developed economies, especially USA, prompt revisions in other developed and developing economies. Similarly, some developing countries’ forecast revisions prompt revisions in other developed and developing countries although at smaller magnitudes. Therefore, we confirm from earlier studies that one source of forecast rigidity is not to incorporate overseas events in forecast revisions quickly and completely.
本研究利用以前从未探讨过的调查数据集,调查了 2002-2017 年间 25 个发达经济体和 18 个发展中经济体的国内生产总值(GDP)增长预测中是否存在信息刚性以及信息刚性的程度。总体而言,研究发现了大量信息刚性的证据。不过,这种情况并不像以前的研究那样普遍和严重。我们的研究还发现了大量对新信息反应过度的证据。发达国家在经济衰退期间存在信息僵化现象,我们发现一些证据表明,在经济衰退期间,信息收集工作有所加强。总体而言,与之前的一些研究相比,我们注意到我们的研究中的预测僵化或低效率现象较少。我们的多国测试结果表明,预测修正取决于本国和跨国的滞后修正。一般来说,发达经济体(尤其是美国)的预测修正会促使其他发达经济体和发展中经济体进行修正。同样,一些发展中国家的预测修正也会引起其他发达国家和发展中国家的修正,尽管幅度较小。因此,我们从先前的研究中证实,预测僵化的一个原因是预测修正没有快速、全面地纳入海外事件。
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引用次数: 0
THE DEVELOPMENT OF GLOBAL PUBLIC GOODS RESEARCH: A BIBLIOMETRIC ANALYSIS 全球公共产品研究的发展:文献计量分析
IF 0.7 Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-08-02 DOI: 10.1142/s219456592350015x
Nina Ponikvar, Alan Velić, K. Zajc Kejžar
Global public goods (GPGs) have been moving to the focus of discussion in international organisations due to globalisation, deepening economic integration, and technological advancements. We provide an overview of the research field of GPGs by conducting a bibliometric analysis for the period from 1993 to 2021. The increasing number of publications and citations of articles dealing with GPGs in the Web of Science is particularly noteworthy in the last decade. Publications on GPGs related to climate change experienced the largest relative growth. Analysis of the co-occurrence networks on authors’ keywords revealed that the focus of GPG research shifted between the 1993–2008 and 2009–2021 subperiods. In the latter period, our results show that sustainable development and the use of GPGs are interconnected and that the need for global governance related to GPGs is increasingly recognised in the literature. Several interrelated challenges of today’s world, related to environmental, technological, health, (cyber)security, economic, and geopolitical transformations have created the need for a new approach to GPGs.
由于全球化、经济一体化的深化和技术的进步,全球公共产品(gpg)已经成为国际组织讨论的焦点。我们通过对1993年至2021年期间的文献计量分析,概述了gpg的研究领域。在过去的十年中,科学网络上关于gpg的出版物和引用的增加尤其值得注意。与气候变化相关的ggs出版物的相对增长最大。对作者关键词的共现网络分析表明,GPG研究的重点在1993-2008年和2009-2021年亚期之间转移。在后期,我们的研究结果表明,可持续发展和ggs的使用是相互关联的,并且在文献中越来越多地认识到与ggs相关的全球治理的必要性。当今世界与环境、技术、健康、(网络)安全、经济和地缘政治转型有关的几个相互关联的挑战,创造了对GPGs新方法的需求。
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引用次数: 0
THE ECONOMY IS NOT FLAT: THE TECHNOLOGY GRADIENT IN THE MASS MARKET ECONOMY 经济不是平坦的:大众市场经济中的技术梯度
Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-05-18 DOI: 10.1142/s2194565923500112
DAVID MAYER-FOULKES, KURT A. HAFNER
In an industrial market economy, the interaction between monopolistic and competitive sectors results in within-country productivity differences, inequality and inefficiency. We demonstrate this using a two-sector mass market economy model. The monopolistic sector represents large-scale, mass production and is associated with innovation and market power, while the competitive sector represents small-scale production and engages instead in technological absorption. The endogenous dynamics of technological change between the two sectors generate a steady state technology gradient, with the competitive sector lagging behind. This technology gradient is a key endogenous feature of the industrial market economy, associated with economic growth, that generates inequality and inefficiency. Inequality is generated in two ways: innovation profits are concentrated among a few owners of large-scale innovation, while economy-wide wage levels reflect the lagging small-scale technological level. The model shows there are innovative-distributive policies that can increase efficiency in production, innovation, and absorption, and restore income equality, increasing wages and reducing profits. A cointegration and weak exogeneity panel study of the US states between 1997 and 2011 corroborates that the large-scale sector drives aggregate employment, wages and inequality, while top income inequality makes the technology gradient steeper.
在工业市场经济中,垄断部门和竞争部门之间的相互作用导致国内生产率差异、不平等和效率低下。我们用一个两部门的大众市场经济模型来证明这一点。垄断部门代表大规模、大量生产,与创新和市场力量有关,而竞争部门代表小规模生产,从事技术吸收。两个部门之间技术变化的内生动力产生稳态技术梯度,竞争部门落后。这种技术梯度是工业市场经济的一个关键内生特征,与经济增长有关,产生不平等和低效率。不平等通过两种方式产生:一是创新利润集中在少数大规模创新的所有者手中,二是整个经济体的工资水平反映了小规模技术水平的滞后。该模型表明,有一些创新分配政策可以提高生产、创新和吸收的效率,恢复收入平等,增加工资,减少利润。一项针对1997年至2011年美国各州的协整和弱外生性面板研究证实,大规模部门推动了总就业、工资和不平等,而最高收入不平等使技术梯度变得更陡。
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引用次数: 0
THE IMPACTS OF GLOBAL ECONOMIC SANCTIONS ON CORRUPTION: A GLOBAL ANALYSIS 全球经济制裁对腐败的影响:全球分析
IF 0.7 Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-05-04 DOI: 10.1142/s2194565923500136
Hoa Mai Thi Tran, MY HA Nguyen, H. Le
This paper investigates the influences of global economic sanctions on corruption by using the structural gravity model for 148 sanctioned countries (108 developing countries and 40 developed countries) during the 1995–2018 period. We consider various forms of sanction, including arms, military, trade, finance, travel, and others. The results reveal that the imposition of sanctions, especially arm, financial, travel, and other sanctions have a significantly negative effect on the prevalence of corruption of target countries. The effects are also largely heterogeneous across sanctioned countries in terms of their economic development. Furthermore, the properties of the institutional quality of the sanctioned state critically affect the relationship between global sanctions and national corruption. Particularly, the well-developed institutional quality helps target countries address the consequences of global sanctions on national corruption. The empirical findings of this study are expected to provide vital insightful lessons for economists and policymakers in the target countries in combating the corruption pervasiveness.
本文以1995-2018年148个被制裁国家(108个发展中国家和40个发达国家)为研究对象,采用结构引力模型考察了全球经济制裁对腐败的影响。我们考虑各种形式的制裁,包括武器、军事、贸易、金融、旅游等。结果表明,实施制裁,特别是武器、金融、旅游和其他制裁对目标国家的腐败发生率有显著的负面影响。就经济发展而言,受制裁国家的影响也在很大程度上是不同的。此外,被制裁国家的制度质量属性严重影响全球制裁与国家腐败之间的关系。特别是,发达的制度质量有助于目标国家解决全球制裁对国家腐败的影响。本研究的实证结果有望为目标国家的经济学家和政策制定者在打击腐败蔓延方面提供重要的深刻教训。
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引用次数: 0
ANALYZING INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL FLOWS TO DEVELOPING AND EMERGING MARKET COUNTRIES USING A TWO-COUNTRY DYNAMIC STOCHASTIC GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM (DSGE) MODEL UNDER ASYMMETRIC INFORMATION STRUCTURE 利用非对称信息结构下的两国动态随机一般均衡模型分析国际资本流向发展中国家和新兴市场国家
IF 0.7 Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-04-29 DOI: 10.1142/s2194565923500094
Roholla Mohabatpoor, A. Googerdchian, K. Azarbayjani, Azim Nazari
In this study, in order to investigate the different forms of capital flow between developing and developed countries in the steady state, a two-country dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model, under asymmetric information, is developed. For simulating countries, the parameters of previous studies are used. The results showed that international risk-sharing can explain the Lucas paradox. In both symmetric and asymmetric information structures, net foreign assets in the forms of stocks in steady state are negative for developing countries. In other words, in the steady state, capital exits from the developing country in the form of bonds and enters these countries in the form of stocks. Besides, net capital inflows in the form of stocks and net outflows of capital in the form of bonds in the present model under asymmetric information are larger than that under symmetric information structure. Furthermore, impulse function results show that the two countries are highly correlated. So, the occurrence of a shock in one country changes the production and consumption of another country. But the impact of the shock on macro variables in the country itself is greater than in another.
为了研究发展中国家和发达国家在稳定状态下资本流动的不同形式,本文建立了信息不对称条件下的两国动态随机一般均衡(DSGE)模型。在模拟国家时,使用了以往研究的参数。结果表明,国际风险分担可以解释卢卡斯悖论。在对称和非对称信息结构中,以稳定状态股票形式的外国净资产对发展中国家都是负的。换句话说,在稳定状态下,资本以债券的形式从发展中国家流出,以股票的形式进入这些国家。此外,在非对称信息下,本模型中股票形式的资本净流入和债券形式的资本净流出均大于对称信息结构下的资本净流出。此外,脉冲函数结果表明,两国高度相关。因此,一个国家发生的冲击会改变另一个国家的生产和消费。但冲击对本国宏观变量的影响大于其他国家。
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引用次数: 0
FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT, FINANCIAL INCLUSION AND INFORMALITY: NEW INTERNATIONAL EVIDENCE 金融发展、普惠金融和非正式性:新的国际证据
IF 0.7 Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-04-29 DOI: 10.1142/s2194565923500070
MARíA Paula Vargas, Erick Lahura
This paper explores the empirical relationship between informality and several indicators of financial development (FD) and financial inclusion (FI). We exploit a panel of 152 countries with annual information between 1991 and 2017. Using panel cointegration techniques, we find evidence of a negative long-run relationship between informality and FD/FI for different groups of countries. Moreover, exogeneity tests indicate that some FD/FI indicators cause less informality. Specifically, we find that in developing countries FD reduces informality when measured as “financial credit” and “bank credit”, whereas FI reduces informality when measured as “number of bank accounts”. These results suggest that higher credit and more bank accounts have contributed to reducing informality in developing countries in the long run. Additionally, we find evidence of double causality between informality and other FD/FI indicators in developing and Latin American countries.
本文探讨了非正式性与金融发展(FD)和金融包容性(FI)几个指标之间的实证关系。我们利用了152个国家1991年至2017年的年度信息。使用面板协整技术,我们发现在不同国家群体中,非正式性与FD/FI之间存在长期负相关的证据。此外,外生性检验表明,一些FD/FI指标导致较少的非正式性。具体来说,我们发现在发展中国家,当以“金融信贷”和“银行信贷”衡量时,FD减少了非正式性,而当以“银行账户数量”衡量时,FI减少了非正式性。这些结果表明,从长远来看,更高的信贷和更多的银行账户有助于减少发展中国家的非正规行为。此外,我们发现在发展中国家和拉丁美洲国家,非正式性与其他FD/FI指标之间存在双重因果关系。
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引用次数: 0
OIL PRICES, EXCHANGE RATES, AND THE TRADE BALANCE: EVIDENCE FROM KAZAKHSTAN AND RUSSIA 油价、汇率和贸易平衡:来自哈萨克斯坦和俄罗斯的证据
IF 0.7 Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-04-29 DOI: 10.1142/s2194565923500148
SIMEON NANOVSKY

The original objective of this paper is to study the impact of the exchange rate on the trade balance for Kazakhstan and Russia. Baseline empirical results indicate that an exchange rate depreciation actually decreases exports and deteriorates the trade balance for these countries; this is the opposite of the traditional theory of the J-curve and Marshall–Lerner condition. The paper then explores why these major oil exporters do not conform to the theory. It argues that it is the oil price that affects both the exchange rate and the trade balance, thereby masking the true impact of the exchange rate on the trade balance. More formally, the paper augments the traditional theory to take into account the behavior of oil prices in the export and trade balance equations. The augmented theory posits that a decrease in the oil price leads to a real exchange rate depreciation and a decline in exports, thereby creating the positive correlation seen in the baseline results. In accordance with the augmented theory, the regression results suffer from omitted variable bias; when the oil price is taken into account, the results again support the theory.

本文的最初目的是研究汇率对哈萨克斯坦和俄罗斯贸易平衡的影响。基线实证结果表明,汇率贬值实际上减少了这些国家的出口并恶化了贸易平衡;这与传统的j曲线理论和马歇尔-勒纳条件相反。然后,本文探讨了这些主要石油出口国不符合这一理论的原因。它认为油价同时影响汇率和贸易平衡,从而掩盖了汇率对贸易平衡的真正影响。更为正式的是,本文对传统理论进行了扩充,在出口和贸易平衡方程中考虑了石油价格的变化。扩充理论认为,油价下跌会导致实际汇率贬值和出口下降,从而产生基线结果中所见的正相关性。根据增广理论,回归结果存在遗漏变量偏差;当考虑到石油价格时,结果再次支持该理论。
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引用次数: 0
ANALYZING THE PROFITABILITY OF TOP-RATED BANKS IN THE WORLD IN LIGHT OF COVID-19 分析新型冠状病毒感染症(COVID-19)下世界顶级银行的盈利能力
IF 0.7 Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-04-28 DOI: 10.1142/s2194565923500033
Indranarain Ramlall
We analyze the impact of COVID-19 on the profitability of top-rated banks in the world using a comprehensive list of bank-specific ratios under post-lasso regressions based on GLS, FGLS and WLS techniques. While size and loans do not materially impound on profitability, a squeeze in the positive impact of asset utilization for all profitability metrics is conspicuously noted. COVID-19 induced declines in the negative impact of total impairment charges and provisions are noted for ROA and NIM while COVID-19-induced hike in the cost-to-income ratio is found for ROE. Findings also demonstrate that policy responses initiated during the crisis did not boost the profits of banks. From a policy perspective, sharing economy could manifest as a contemplated business model for banks, should the world relapse into another form of pandemic-related crisis.
我们使用基于GLS、FGLS和WLS技术的后套索回归的银行特定比率综合清单,分析了COVID-19对全球顶级银行盈利能力的影响。虽然规模和贷款对盈利能力没有实质性影响,但值得注意的是,资产利用率对所有盈利能力指标的积极影响受到挤压。新冠肺炎导致总减值准备和准备金的负面影响在ROA和NIM中下降,而在ROE中发现成本收入比在新冠肺炎导致的上升。研究结果还表明,危机期间启动的政策反应并没有提高银行的利润。从政策角度来看,如果世界再次陷入另一种形式的大流行相关危机,共享经济可能会成为银行考虑的一种商业模式。
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引用次数: 0
ADOPTION OF GREEN FINANCING STRATEGIES WITH RENEWABLE ENERGY RESOURCES FOR GLOBAL ECONOMIC GROWTH 采用可再生能源绿色融资战略促进全球经济增长
IF 0.7 Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-04-27 DOI: 10.1142/s2194565923500045
Gopi Selvapandian, Praveen Paul Jeyapaul, Balamurugan Gunabalan
Green financing is an emergent technology in recent days that supports the nature of environment with reduced carbon emissions. Also, the renewable energy sources or green resources are the most suitable options for improving the economic growth and sustainability of environment. Recently, many industrial organizations over the world were able to provide support to the deployment of green energy projects because it is less harmful to the environment and increases the financial development of country. Therefore, this paper objects to analyze the major effects of green financial strategies for developing the green energy projects. Moreover, it discussed about the recent trends of adopting green projects for ensuring the sustainability of environment with increased energy utilization. In addition to that, it examines various challenges and risks that are associated to the deployment of green financing strategy. The long-term financing, associated risks in project development, minimized return values, and lack of capacity are the major risks of green financing management systems. According to the recent reports, it is stated that the government sectors have an increased responsibility for funding the green projects to support the environment nature. Nevertheless, some of the public and private sectors in different countries are motivating the green energy projects by providing the financial support to the short-term and medium-term organizations for ensuring the sustainability of environment.
绿色金融是近年来兴起的一项新兴技术,它通过减少碳排放来支持环境的本质。此外,可再生能源或绿色资源是提高经济增长和环境可持续性的最合适的选择。最近,由于绿色能源项目对环境的危害较小,并增加了国家的财政发展,世界上许多工业组织都能够为绿色能源项目的部署提供支持。因此,本文旨在分析绿色金融战略对发展绿色能源项目的主要作用。此外,它还讨论了最近采用绿色项目的趋势,以确保环境的可持续性,提高能源利用。此外,报告还探讨了与实施绿色融资战略相关的各种挑战和风险。长期融资、项目开发相关风险、回报价值最小化和能力不足是绿色融资管理体系的主要风险。根据最近的报告,政府部门有越来越多的责任资助绿色项目来支持自然环境。然而,不同国家的一些公共和私营部门正在通过向短期和中期组织提供资金支持来推动绿色能源项目,以确保环境的可持续性。
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引用次数: 0
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