Pub Date : 2020-03-24DOI: 10.21203/rs.3.rs-18365/v1
C. Nguyen, C. Schinckus, Dinh Su Thanh
The recent economic crisis re-emphasizes the importance of the economic fluctuations. This study investigates the role of shadow economy in combination with economic factors on the economic instability for 133 economies between 1991 and 2015. Using the system-GMM estimations, this paper shows that a larger shadow economy increases the fluctuations of GDP growth rate in relation to the size and the volatility of shadow economy. Notably, the shadow economy presents an inverted-U relationship with economic instability and this relationship is strongest for low- and lower-middle income economies. Our results identify two categories of drivers for economic fluctuations: the stabilizing factors (the labor force and the TFP) and the enhancing factors (capital investment, consumption, government spending, trade, and FDI inflows). Interestingly, exports increase economic fluctuations while imports decrease them. Finally, we discuss the differences in the determinants of economic instability across low, middle and high incomes countries. This study documented that shadow economy influences the economic fluctuations — our results actually confirm our hypothesis and the impact of shadow economy on the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies. The contribution of this paper is to show the extent to which the impact can affect the economic activities and how institutions can smooth this effect.
{"title":"ECONOMIC FLUCTUATIONS AND THE SHADOW ECONOMY: A GLOBAL STUDY","authors":"C. Nguyen, C. Schinckus, Dinh Su Thanh","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-18365/v1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-18365/v1","url":null,"abstract":"The recent economic crisis re-emphasizes the importance of the economic fluctuations. This study investigates the role of shadow economy in combination with economic factors on the economic instability for 133 economies between 1991 and 2015. Using the system-GMM estimations, this paper shows that a larger shadow economy increases the fluctuations of GDP growth rate in relation to the size and the volatility of shadow economy. Notably, the shadow economy presents an inverted-U relationship with economic instability and this relationship is strongest for low- and lower-middle income economies. Our results identify two categories of drivers for economic fluctuations: the stabilizing factors (the labor force and the TFP) and the enhancing factors (capital investment, consumption, government spending, trade, and FDI inflows). Interestingly, exports increase economic fluctuations while imports decrease them. Finally, we discuss the differences in the determinants of economic instability across low, middle and high incomes countries. This study documented that shadow economy influences the economic fluctuations — our results actually confirm our hypothesis and the impact of shadow economy on the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies. The contribution of this paper is to show the extent to which the impact can affect the economic activities and how institutions can smooth this effect.","PeriodicalId":44015,"journal":{"name":"Global Economy Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2020-03-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79993504","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-03-01DOI: 10.1142/s2194565920500013
L. Aghabarari, A. Rostom
This paper estimates the private sector credit cycles for most of the oil-importing and oil-exporting countries in the Middle East and North Africa. Credit cycles are the medium-term component in spectral analysis of real private sector credit growth. Besides, the paper estimates the credit cycles for several developed countries. The analysis finds substantial differences and rare similarities between credit cycles in the Middle East and North Africa and advanced countries. During 1964–2017, credit cycles in the Middle East and North Africa do not appear to be associated with GDP growth. They only explained a fraction of the growth in private sector credit, and they do not seem to be synchronized across oil-exporters and oil-importers.
{"title":"CREDIT CYCLES IN COUNTRIES IN THE MENA REGION — DO THEY EXIST? DO THEY MATTER?","authors":"L. Aghabarari, A. Rostom","doi":"10.1142/s2194565920500013","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1142/s2194565920500013","url":null,"abstract":"This paper estimates the private sector credit cycles for most of the oil-importing and oil-exporting countries in the Middle East and North Africa. Credit cycles are the medium-term component in spectral analysis of real private sector credit growth. Besides, the paper estimates the credit cycles for several developed countries. The analysis finds substantial differences and rare similarities between credit cycles in the Middle East and North Africa and advanced countries. During 1964–2017, credit cycles in the Middle East and North Africa do not appear to be associated with GDP growth. They only explained a fraction of the growth in private sector credit, and they do not seem to be synchronized across oil-exporters and oil-importers.","PeriodicalId":44015,"journal":{"name":"Global Economy Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2020-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86263656","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-03-01DOI: 10.1142/s2194565920500025
Murat Issabayev, H. Saydaliyev, Veysel Avsar, Lee Chin
This paper investigates the effect of remittance inflows on financial inclusion. Using data from high remittance-receiving developing countries and applying dynamic panel data methods, we find that remittance inflow has a negative impact on financial inclusion for countries with low level of remittances. However, this relationship is positive for countries with high level of remittances. Our study found that there exists a nonlinear relationship between remittances and financial inclusion. We also show that the effect of remittances on the financial inclusion is conditional upon people’s perception about institutions.
{"title":"REMITTANCES, INSTITUTIONS AND FINANCIAL INCLUSION: NEW EVIDENCE OF NON-LINEARITY","authors":"Murat Issabayev, H. Saydaliyev, Veysel Avsar, Lee Chin","doi":"10.1142/s2194565920500025","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1142/s2194565920500025","url":null,"abstract":"This paper investigates the effect of remittance inflows on financial inclusion. Using data from high remittance-receiving developing countries and applying dynamic panel data methods, we find that remittance inflow has a negative impact on financial inclusion for countries with low level of remittances. However, this relationship is positive for countries with high level of remittances. Our study found that there exists a nonlinear relationship between remittances and financial inclusion. We also show that the effect of remittances on the financial inclusion is conditional upon people’s perception about institutions.","PeriodicalId":44015,"journal":{"name":"Global Economy Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2020-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80764813","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-12-18DOI: 10.1142/s2194565919500131
Jo-Hui Chen, J. Diaz
This research utilizes the Autoregressive Moving Average–General Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (ARMA–GARCH) and Autoregressive Moving Average–Exponential General Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (ARMA–EGARCH) in studying the spillover and leverage effects of returns and volatilities of seven equity exchange-traded notes (ETNs) and their tracked stock indices. This study finds positive returns transmissions between the two investment instruments. Unilateral influence and bilateral relationships also exist that may help investors in finding investment clues to approximate possible movements of ETNs about stock indices and vice versa. This paper also observes negative returns and volatility transmissions that may caution traders in the possible reversal of movement of the other instrument. Disinvestments, transfer of allocation, and inverse investing strategies are some of the possible reasons attributable to this negative relation.
{"title":"THE SPILLOVER AND LEVERAGE EFFECTS OF EQUITY EXCHANGE-TRADED NOTES (ETNS)","authors":"Jo-Hui Chen, J. Diaz","doi":"10.1142/s2194565919500131","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1142/s2194565919500131","url":null,"abstract":"This research utilizes the Autoregressive Moving Average–General Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (ARMA–GARCH) and Autoregressive Moving Average–Exponential General Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (ARMA–EGARCH) in studying the spillover and leverage effects of returns and volatilities of seven equity exchange-traded notes (ETNs) and their tracked stock indices. This study finds positive returns transmissions between the two investment instruments. Unilateral influence and bilateral relationships also exist that may help investors in finding investment clues to approximate possible movements of ETNs about stock indices and vice versa. This paper also observes negative returns and volatility transmissions that may caution traders in the possible reversal of movement of the other instrument. Disinvestments, transfer of allocation, and inverse investing strategies are some of the possible reasons attributable to this negative relation.","PeriodicalId":44015,"journal":{"name":"Global Economy Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2019-12-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80287934","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-12-18DOI: 10.1142/s2194565919500179
Srinivasan Palamalai, Bipasha Maity
As Cryptocurrencies are emerging as a new class of investment assets, understanding their price and volatility dynamics has begun to gather momentum, especially the volatility can influence investment decisions. Most of previous literature concentrates primarily on several aspects of Bitcoin and endeavoring to generalize them for the whole cryptocurrency markets. In this study, we attempted to examine the return and volatility spillover effects across a wide range of cryptocurrency markets, i.e. eight major cryptocurrencies (determined by market capitalization) using a Vector Error Correction approach and Diagonal BEKK Multivariate GARCH model. We found the evidence of interdependencies and volatility co-movements among the various pairs of cryptocurrency markets. However, the study suggests that there exists a limited window of opportunity for the short-term portfolio diversification benefits from the selected large-cap cryptocurrency markets.
{"title":"RETURN AND VOLATILITY SPILLOVER EFFECTS IN LEADING CRYPTOCURRENCIES","authors":"Srinivasan Palamalai, Bipasha Maity","doi":"10.1142/s2194565919500179","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1142/s2194565919500179","url":null,"abstract":"As Cryptocurrencies are emerging as a new class of investment assets, understanding their price and volatility dynamics has begun to gather momentum, especially the volatility can influence investment decisions. Most of previous literature concentrates primarily on several aspects of Bitcoin and endeavoring to generalize them for the whole cryptocurrency markets. In this study, we attempted to examine the return and volatility spillover effects across a wide range of cryptocurrency markets, i.e. eight major cryptocurrencies (determined by market capitalization) using a Vector Error Correction approach and Diagonal BEKK Multivariate GARCH model. We found the evidence of interdependencies and volatility co-movements among the various pairs of cryptocurrency markets. However, the study suggests that there exists a limited window of opportunity for the short-term portfolio diversification benefits from the selected large-cap cryptocurrency markets.","PeriodicalId":44015,"journal":{"name":"Global Economy Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2019-12-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80957357","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-12-18DOI: 10.1142/s2194565919500192
B. Allen, S. K. Bryant
This study examines the concept of cryptocurrency and gives a brief history and overview of its characteristics. In an increasingly electronic society, cryptocurrency could be the next step in the evolution of finance in the same way that the internet was a step in the evolution of communication. In the coming years, countries may even announce the release of national cryptocurrencies, although certain conditions must be met for these efforts to be successful. Although the market is still in the early stages, as it begins to mature, cryptocurrency may become more prominent, until it becomes the new status quo.
{"title":"THE MARKET FOR CRYPTOCURRENCY: HOW WILL IT EVOLVE?","authors":"B. Allen, S. K. Bryant","doi":"10.1142/s2194565919500192","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1142/s2194565919500192","url":null,"abstract":"This study examines the concept of cryptocurrency and gives a brief history and overview of its characteristics. In an increasingly electronic society, cryptocurrency could be the next step in the evolution of finance in the same way that the internet was a step in the evolution of communication. In the coming years, countries may even announce the release of national cryptocurrencies, although certain conditions must be met for these efforts to be successful. Although the market is still in the early stages, as it begins to mature, cryptocurrency may become more prominent, until it becomes the new status quo.","PeriodicalId":44015,"journal":{"name":"Global Economy Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2019-12-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"90348358","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-12-13DOI: 10.1142/s2194565919500143
Brenda J. Lutz, J. Lutz
Globalization has often been suggested as a phenomenon that leads to terrorism due to the disruptions it causes. In the case of the former centrally planned economies of East Europe and Eurasia, however, greater levels of globalization have led to less terrorist incidents and casualties rather than more. Further, the terrorist attacks that did occur did not deter foreign direct investment in the region.
{"title":"GLOBALIZATION AND TERRORISM IN EAST EUROPE AND THE SUCCESSOR STATES OF THE SOVIET UNION","authors":"Brenda J. Lutz, J. Lutz","doi":"10.1142/s2194565919500143","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1142/s2194565919500143","url":null,"abstract":"Globalization has often been suggested as a phenomenon that leads to terrorism due to the disruptions it causes. In the case of the former centrally planned economies of East Europe and Eurasia, however, greater levels of globalization have led to less terrorist incidents and casualties rather than more. Further, the terrorist attacks that did occur did not deter foreign direct investment in the region.","PeriodicalId":44015,"journal":{"name":"Global Economy Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2019-12-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"72615058","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-12-06DOI: 10.1142/s2194565919500155
Alexi Thompson, Yaya Sissoko
While the underground economy is not explicitly included in the measure of (GDP), the cocaine trade has been a major source of revenue for Colombia. Using quarterly cocaine prices from 1982 to 2007 published by the Office of National Drug Control Policy, this paper uses vector error correction and forecast error variance decomposition methods to look at the relationship between cocaine prices and the peso/$ nominal exchange rate. Our results indicate cocaine prices affect the value of the Colombian peso, which leads to some interesting policy implications.
{"title":"THE PRICE OF COCAINE AND THE COLOMBIAN PESO: AN EMPIRICAL INVESTIGATION","authors":"Alexi Thompson, Yaya Sissoko","doi":"10.1142/s2194565919500155","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1142/s2194565919500155","url":null,"abstract":"While the underground economy is not explicitly included in the measure of (GDP), the cocaine trade has been a major source of revenue for Colombia. Using quarterly cocaine prices from 1982 to 2007 published by the Office of National Drug Control Policy, this paper uses vector error correction and forecast error variance decomposition methods to look at the relationship between cocaine prices and the peso/$ nominal exchange rate. Our results indicate cocaine prices affect the value of the Colombian peso, which leads to some interesting policy implications.","PeriodicalId":44015,"journal":{"name":"Global Economy Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2019-12-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74440653","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-12-06DOI: 10.1142/s2194565919500167
F. Furuoka
This study proposes a novel statistical procedure to test the export-led growth hypothesis. The procedure integrates a Fisher-type causality method in the statistical analysis. In order to demonstrate the application of this procedure, this study examined the exports–growth nexus in low-income and lower middle-income countries in Africa. The findings obtained from the newly-proposed integrated statistical procedure were more conclusive compared to the results obtained from the individual causality tests; the findings also highlighted a complex nature of the exports–growth nexus in Africa.
{"title":"A NEW PROCEDURE FOR TESTING THE EXPORT-LED GROWTH HYPOTHESIS: A RESEARCH NOTE","authors":"F. Furuoka","doi":"10.1142/s2194565919500167","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1142/s2194565919500167","url":null,"abstract":"This study proposes a novel statistical procedure to test the export-led growth hypothesis. The procedure integrates a Fisher-type causality method in the statistical analysis. In order to demonstrate the application of this procedure, this study examined the exports–growth nexus in low-income and lower middle-income countries in Africa. The findings obtained from the newly-proposed integrated statistical procedure were more conclusive compared to the results obtained from the individual causality tests; the findings also highlighted a complex nature of the exports–growth nexus in Africa.","PeriodicalId":44015,"journal":{"name":"Global Economy Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2019-12-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84303216","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-12-01DOI: 10.1142/s2194565919500222
E. Pankratov
In this paper, the prognosis and analysis of the process of replacement of old line of innovative products by new line of innovative products with account of the capacity of the market, the possibl...
本文考虑了市场容量、创新产品更新换代的可能性，对创新产品更新换代的过程进行了预测和分析。
{"title":"PROGNOSIS OF REPLACEMENT OF LINE OF OLD INNOVATIVE PRODUCTS BY LINE OF NEW INNOVATIVE PRODUCTS","authors":"E. Pankratov","doi":"10.1142/s2194565919500222","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1142/s2194565919500222","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, the prognosis and analysis of the process of replacement of old line of innovative products by new line of innovative products with account of the capacity of the market, the possibl...","PeriodicalId":44015,"journal":{"name":"Global Economy Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2019-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"73217383","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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