Journal of Operational Meteorology最新文献

英文中文

Understanding emergency manager forecast use in severe weather events. 了解在恶劣天气事件中应急管理预报的使用。

IF 1.1 Q4 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Journal of Operational Meteorology

Pub Date : 2018-12-20 DOI: 10.15191/NWAJOM.2018.0609

Sean Ernst, Daphne S. LaDue, Alan E. Gerard

For Emergency Managers (EMs), preparations for severe weather have always relied on accurate, well-communicated National Weather Service (NWS) forecasts. As part of their constant work to improve these forecasts, the NWS has recently begun to develop impact-based products that share forecast uncertainty information with EMs, including the Probabilistic Hazard Information (PHI) tool. However, there is a lack of research investigating what forecast uncertainty information EMs understand, and what information needs exist in the current communication paradigm. This study used the Critical Incident Technique to identify themes from incidents involving weather forecast information that went well, or not so well, from the perspective of the EMs responding to them. In total, 11 EMs from a variety of locales east of the Rockies were interviewed—six of whom were county-level, two city, two state, and one from a school district. We found that EMs sought increased forecast detail as a potential event approached in time and built relational trust in the NWS through repeated interactions. EMs had difficulty preparing for events when they did not have details of the expected impacts, or the likelihood of those impacts, for their regions. In summary, EMs are already starting to work in an uncertainty-friendly frame and could be responsive to the impact details and increased forecaster relations proposed with the PHI tool.

对于应急管理人员(EMs)来说，对恶劣天气的准备工作一直依赖于准确、沟通良好的国家气象局(NWS)预报。作为他们不断改进这些预报工作的一部分，NWS最近开始开发基于影响的产品，与EMs共享预报不确定性信息，包括概率危害信息(PHI)工具。然而，在当前的沟通范式中，缺乏对预测不确定性信息的理解和信息需求的研究。本研究使用关键事件技术从事件中识别天气预报信息进行顺利或不太顺利的主题，从EMs对它们的响应的角度。总共采访了11位来自落基山脉以东不同地区的急诊医生，其中6位是县级的，2位是城市的，2位是州的，还有1位是学区的。我们发现，当潜在事件及时逼近时，气象预报机构会寻求增加预报细节，并通过反复互动在气象预报系统中建立关系信任。当新兴市场不了解其区域的预期影响或这些影响的可能性的细节时，它们就难以为事件做好准备。综上所述，新兴市场已经开始在不确定性友好的框架下工作，并且可以对PHI工具提出的影响细节和增加的预测关系做出响应。

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引用次数: 7

Atmospheric Rivers and National Weather Service Watches, Warnings, and Advisories Issued Over California 2007–2016 2007-2016年加州大气河流和国家气象局发布的观察、警告和咨询

IF 1.1 Q4 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Journal of Operational Meteorology

Pub Date : 2018-12-14 DOI: 10.15191/NWAJOM.2018.0608

J. Cordeira, Molly M. Neureuter, L. Kelleher, Geneva New York William Smith Colleges

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are a focus of many global hydrometeorological studies and applications. The impacts of ARs along the United States’ West Coast include extreme orographic precipitation that often leads to flooding, flash flooding, debris flows, and other hydrological hazards that necessitate issuance of watches, warnings, and advisories (WWAs) by the National Weather Service (NWS). The objectives of this paper are to quantify and illustrate the relationship between landfalling ARs and high-impact weather events in California by comparing a catalog of landfalling ARs to a 10-year geospatial catalog of WWAs issued by the NWS. NWS WWAs are issued frequently over California in regions of topography (e.g., the northern Sierra Nevada and Transverse Ranges) in association with flooding and winter weather across northern California and flash flooding across southern California. A large majority of cool-season days with WWAs related to flooding (~50– 75%) and winter weather (~60–80%) occur on days with landfalling ARs. Alternatively, landfalling ARs on cool-season days also enhance the likelihood of high-impact weather over different regions of California with greatly increased likelihoods of WWAs relative to climatology as AR intensity increases. ABSTRACT (Manuscript received 26 July 2018; review completed 12 October 2018)

大气河流（AR）是许多全球水文气象研究和应用的焦点。美国西海岸AR的影响包括极端地形降水，通常会导致洪水、山洪暴发、泥石流和其他水文灾害，需要国家气象局发布监测、警告和咨询（WWA）。本文的目的是通过将登陆AR目录与NWS发布的10年WWA地理空间目录进行比较，量化并说明登陆AR与加州高影响天气事件之间的关系。NWS WWA经常在加利福尼亚州的地形区域（如内华达山脉北部和横向山脉）发布，与加利福尼亚州北部的洪水和冬季天气以及加利福尼亚州南部的山洪暴发有关。大部分与洪水（约50-75%）和冬季天气（约60-80%）有关的WWA的凉爽季节发生在有AR登陆的日子。或者，在凉爽季节登陆AR也增加了加州不同地区出现高影响天气的可能性，随着AR强度的增加，相对于气候学，WWA的可能性大大增加。摘要（手稿于2018年7月26日收到；审查于2018年10月12日完成）

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引用次数: 3

Impacts of a University-led, On-demand Sounding Program on Human and Numerical Weather Prediction Model Forecasts in an Upper-air Observation Hole 大学主导的按需探测计划对高空观测孔中人类和数值天气预测模型预测的影响

IF 1.1 Q4 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Journal of Operational Meteorology

Pub Date : 2018-09-19 DOI: 10.15191/NWAJOM.2018.0607

M. Benoit, C. Nowotarski, D. Conlee, L. Wood, League City Texas Nws

This paper describes the forecasting impacts of a partnership between university faculty and students and forecasters in an on-demand supplemental radiosonde observations program in a data-sparse region. Impacts of the supplemental radiosondes and incorporation into forecast practices by forecasters in both severe convective weather and winter precipitation scenarios are described, with considerable influence found in both situations. Results of a data assimilation experiment, wherein the supplemental radiosondes are assimilated into highresolution, convection-allowing regional numerical weather prediction model forecasts are also presented. Although assimilation of the radiosonde has limited results in model forecast skill in convective precipitation events, modest forecast improvements are found in short-range forecasts of low-level temperatures during winter weather events. ABSTRACT (Manuscript received 14 May 2018; review completed 15 August 2018)

本文描述了在数据稀疏地区的按需补充无线电探空观测计划中，大学教师和学生与预报员之间的伙伴关系对预测的影响。介绍了补充无线电探空仪的影响以及预报员将其纳入强对流天气和冬季降水情景的预报实践，在这两种情况下都发现了相当大的影响。本文还介绍了一项数据同化试验的结果，其中补充的探空仪被同化为高分辨率、允许对流的区域数值天气预报模式预报。虽然同化无线电探空仪在对流降水事件的模式预报技能方面的结果有限，但在冬季天气事件中对低层温度的短期预报中发现了适度的改进。摘要(2018年5月14日收稿;检讨已于2018年8月15日完成)

引用次数: 2

Using the Multisensor Advected Layered Precipitable Water Product in the Operational Forecast Environment 多传感器预测分层可降水产品在运行预报环境中的应用

IF 1.1 Q4 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Journal of Operational Meteorology

Pub Date : 2018-06-15 DOI: 10.15191/NWAJOM.2018.0606

Christopher M. Gitro, Kansas City Nws, Missouri Pleasant Hill, Michael L. Jurewicz, S. Kusselson, J. Forsythe, S. Kidder, E. Szoke, D. Bikos, Andrew S. Jones, Chad Gravelle, C. Grassotti

The Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere, via the Joint Polar Satellite System Proving Ground, developed an advectively blended layered precipitable water (ALPW) product that portrays moisture profiles at a common time across the grid. Using water vapor profile retrievals from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Microwave Integrated Retrieval System (MiRS) aboard polar-orbiting spacecraft, the ALPW product is able to depict the moisture distribution for four atmospheric layers. The ALPW layers are advected forward in time every 3-h using Global Forecast System model winds. Advective blending offers a reduction to the visual limitations seen with traditional non-advected layered precpitable water (LPW) imagery, as satellite swath lines and data discontinuities largely are removed. Having the same temporal resolution as LPW imagery, the new ALPW product offers a more continuous and complete picture of the moisture distribution in these four atmospheric layers (surface–850 hPa, 850–700 hPa, 700–500 hPa, and 500–300 hPa). The advected product also is easier for forecasters to interpret as the analysis at a common time and grid makes the ALPW product comparable to operational model guidance. This paper demonstrates the utility of the ALPW product as a situational awareness tool by highlighting the environments associated with three recent high-impact flash flood events. Initial findings indicate that ALPW data have improved the detection capability for tracking deep tropospheric moisture plumes from source regions well-removed from the flash flood locations. ABSTRACT (Manuscript received 18 December 2017; review completed 11 May 2018)

大气研究合作研究所通过联合极地卫星系统试验场开发了一种平流混合分层可降水产品，该产品描绘了整个网格在同一时间的湿度剖面。利用美国国家海洋和大气管理局极地轨道航天器上微波综合检索系统（MiRS）的水蒸气剖面检索，ALPW产品能够描绘四个大气层的水分分布。使用全球预报系统模型风，ALPW层每3小时提前一次。随着卫星带状线和数据不连续性的大幅消除，平流混合减少了传统非平流分层预沉淀水（LPW）图像的视觉局限性。新的ALPW产品具有与LPW图像相同的时间分辨率，提供了这四个大气层（表面850 hPa、850–700 hPa、700–500 hPa和500–300 hPa）中水分分布的更连续和完整的图像。预报员也更容易将平差产品解释为在公共时间和网格上的分析，使ALPW产品与运营模型指南具有可比性。本文通过强调与最近三次高影响山洪事件相关的环境，展示了ALPW产品作为态势感知工具的实用性。初步发现表明，ALPW数据提高了追踪来自远离山洪暴发位置的源区的深对流层湿气羽流的探测能力。摘要（手稿于2017年12月18日收到；审查于2018年5月11日完成）

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引用次数: 7

Development and Testing of a Decision Tree for the Forecasting of Sea Fog Along the Georgia and South Carolina Coast 佐治亚和南卡罗来纳海岸海雾预报决策树的开发和测试

IF 1.1 Q4 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Journal of Operational Meteorology

Pub Date : 2018-06-12 DOI: 10.15191/NWAJOM.2018.0605

B. Lindner, P. Mohlin, A. Caulder, Aaron Neuhauser

A classification and regression tree analysis for sea fog has been developed using 648 low-visibility (<4.8 km) coastal fog events from 1998–2014 along the South Carolina and Georgia coastline. Correlations between these coastal fog events and relevant oceanic and atmospheric parameters determined the range in these parameters that were most favorable for predicting sea fog formation. Parameters examined during coastal fog events from 1998–2014 included sea surface temperature (SST), air temperature, dewpoint temperature, maximum wind speed, average wind speed, wind direction, inversion strength, and inversion height. The most favorable range in SST for sea fog formation was 10.6–23.9°C. The most favorable gaps between air temperature and SST, dewpoint temperature and SST, and dewpoint temperature and air temperature were found to be –1.7– 2.2°C, 0°C, and 0–2.2°C, respectively. The most favorable range in maximum wind speed was 11.1–20.4 km h-1, and the most favorable wind directions were parallel to the coast or SST isopleths. The most favorable range in inversion height was 70.6–617.2 m, and the most favorable inversion strength was anything >6°C. Utilizing these eight predictors, a forecasting decision tree was created and beta tested during the 2016/2017 sea fog season. The decision tree successfully predicted sea fog on 17 of the 18 dates that it occurred (94%) and successfully predicted a lack of sea fog for 189 of the 194 days where sea fog did not occur (97%). Two of the six incorrect predictions appear to have extenuating circumstances. ABSTRACT (Manuscript received 11 December 2017; review completed 16 April 2018)

使用648个低能见度（6°C）对海雾进行了分类和回归树分析。利用这八个预测因子，创建了一个预测决策树，并在2016/2017年海雾季节进行了贝塔测试。该决策树成功预测了18天中的17天（94%）的海雾，并成功预测了194天中的189天没有海雾没有出现海雾（97%）。六个错误的预测中有两个似乎有情有可原的情节。摘要（手稿于2017年12月11日收到；审查于2018年4月16日完成）

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引用次数: 5

Applications of the 16 spectral bands on the Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI). 16个光谱波段在高级基线成像仪上的应用。

IF 1.1 Q4 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Journal of Operational Meteorology

Pub Date : 2018-06-08 DOI: 10.15191/NWAJOM.2018.0604

T. Schmit, S. Lindstrom, Jordan J. Gerth, M. Gunshor

The Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) on the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES)-R series has 16 spectral bands. Two bands are in the visible part of the electromagnetic spectrum, four are in the near-infrared, and ten are in the infrared. The ABI is similar to advanced geostationary imagers on other international satellite missions, such as the Advanced Himawari Imager (AHI) on Himawari-8 and -9. Operational meteorologists can investigate imagery from the ABI to better understand the state and evolution of the atmosphere. Various uses of the ABI spectral bands are described. GOES-R was launched on 19 November 2016 and became GOES-16 upon reaching geostationary orbit. GOES-16 is the first in a series of four spacecraft that will host ABI. GOES-16 became operational on 18 December 2017, in the GOES-East location. The ABI improvement is two orders of magnitude more than the legacy GOES imager due to more spectral bands and finer spatial and temporal resolutions. ABSTRACT (Manuscript received 18 October 2017; review completed 5 March 2018)

地球静止运行环境卫星（GOES）-R系列上的高级基线成像仪（ABI）有16个光谱带。两个波段在电磁光谱的可见光部分，四个波段在近红外，十个波段在红外。ABI类似于其他国际卫星任务中的先进地球静止成像仪，如Himawari-8和-9上的先进Himawari成像仪（AHI）。操作气象学家可以调查ABI的图像，以更好地了解大气的状态和演变。描述了ABI谱带的各种用途。GOES-R于2016年11月19日发射，到达地球静止轨道后成为GOES-16。GOES-16是将搭载ABI的四个系列航天器中的第一个。GOES-16于2017年12月18日在GOES东部投入使用。由于更多的光谱波段和更精细的空间和时间分辨率，ABI的改进比传统的GOES成像器多了两个数量级。摘要（手稿于2017年10月18日收到；审查于2018年3月5日完成）

引用次数: 108

Automated Storm Tracking and the Lightning Jump Algorithm Using GOES-R Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) Proxy Data. 基于GOES-R地球同步闪电成像仪(GLM)代理数据的自动风暴跟踪和闪电跳跃算法。

IF 1.1 Q4 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Journal of Operational Meteorology

Pub Date : 2016-01-01 Epub Date: 2016-06-28 DOI: 10.15191/nwajom.2016.0407

Elise V Schultz, Christopher J Schultz, Lawrence D Carey, Daniel J Cecil, Monte Bateman

This study develops a fully automated lightning jump system encompassing objective storm tracking, Geostationary Lightning Mapper proxy data, and the lightning jump algorithm (LJA), which are important elements in the transition of the LJA concept from a research to an operational based algorithm. Storm cluster tracking is based on a product created from the combination of a radar parameter (vertically integrated liquid, VIL), and lightning information (flash rate density). Evaluations showed that the spatial scale of tracked features or storm clusters had a large impact on the lightning jump system performance, where increasing spatial scale size resulted in decreased dynamic range of the system's performance. This framework will also serve as a means to refine the LJA itself to enhance its operational applicability. Parameters within the system are isolated and the system's performance is evaluated with adjustments to parameter sensitivity. The system's performance is evaluated using the probability of detection (POD) and false alarm ratio (FAR) statistics. Of the algorithm parameters tested, sigma-level (metric of lightning jump strength) and flash rate threshold influenced the system's performance the most. Finally, verification methodologies are investigated. It is discovered that minor changes in verification methodology can dramatically impact the evaluation of the lightning jump system.

本研究开发了一个完全自动化的闪电跳跃系统，该系统包含客观风暴跟踪、地球同步闪电Mapper代理数据和闪电跳跃算法(LJA)，这是LJA概念从研究到基于操作的算法转变的重要要素。风暴集群跟踪是基于雷达参数(垂直集成液体，VIL)和闪电信息(闪速密度)组合而成的产品。结果表明，轨迹特征或风暴集群的空间尺度对闪电跳变系统性能影响较大，空间尺度越大，系统性能动态范围越小。这一框架还将作为改进LJA本身的一种手段，以增强其业务适用性。系统内的参数被隔离，并通过调整参数灵敏度来评估系统的性能。利用检测概率(POD)和虚警率(FAR)统计来评估系统的性能。在测试的算法参数中，西格玛电平(闪电跳跃强度度量)和闪光率阈值对系统性能影响最大。最后，研究了验证方法。研究发现，验证方法的微小变化会极大地影响闪电跳变系统的评估。

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