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Modeling and management of cyber risk: a cross-disciplinary review 网络风险建模与管理:跨学科审查
IF 1.7 Q2 Mathematics Pub Date : 2024-01-04 DOI: 10.1017/s1748499523000258
Rong He, Zhuo Jin, Johnny Siu-Hang Li
This paper provides a review of cyber risk research accomplished in different disciplines, with a primary goal to aid researchers in the field of insurance and actuarial science in identifying potential research gaps as well as leveraging useful models and techniques that have been considered in the literature. We highlight the recent advancements in cyber risk prediction, modeling, management, and insurance achieved in different domains including computer engineering, actuarial science, and business studies. The surveyed works are classified according to their respective modeling approaches, allowing readers to more easily compare the technical aspects of the surveyed works and spot out research gaps based on the research tools of their liking. We conclude this paper with a summary of possible research directions that are identified from the review.
本文对不同学科完成的网络风险研究进行了综述,主要目的是帮助保险和精算领域的研究人员找出潜在的研究差距,并利用文献中已考虑过的有用模型和技术。我们重点介绍了计算机工程、精算科学和商业研究等不同领域在网络风险预测、建模、管理和保险方面取得的最新进展。我们根据各自的建模方法对所调查的作品进行了分类,使读者能够更轻松地比较所调查作品的技术方面,并根据自己喜欢的研究工具找出研究空白。最后,我们总结了从综述中发现的可能的研究方向。
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引用次数: 0
Error propagation and attribution in simulation-based capital models 基于仿真的资本模型中的错误传播和归因
IF 1.7 Q2 Mathematics Pub Date : 2023-11-28 DOI: 10.1017/s1748499523000210
Daniel J. Crispin
Calculation of loss scenarios is a fundamental requirement of simulation-based capital models and these are commonly approximated. Within a life insurance setting, a loss scenario may involve an asset-liability optimization. When cashflows and asset values are dependent on only a small number of risk factor components, low-dimensional approximations may be used as inputs into the optimization and resulting in loss approximation. By considering these loss approximations as perturbations of linear optimization problems, approximation errors in loss scenarios can be bounded to first order and attributed to specific proxies. This attribution creates a mechanism for approximation improvements and for the eventual elimination of approximation errors in capital estimates through targeted exact computation. The results are demonstrated through a stylized worked example and corresponding numerical study. Advances in error analysis of proxy models enhance confidence in capital estimates. Beyond error analysis, the presented methods can be applied to general sensitivity analysis and the calculation of risk.
损失情景的计算是基于模拟的资本模型的基本要求,这些通常是近似值。在人寿保险设置中,损失场景可能涉及资产负债优化。当现金流和资产价值仅依赖于少数风险因素组成部分时,可以将低维近似用作优化的输入,从而产生损失近似。通过将这些损失近似视为线性优化问题的扰动,损失情景中的近似误差可以限定在一阶并归因于特定的代理。这种归属创造了一种近似改进机制,并通过有针对性的精确计算最终消除资本估计中的近似误差。通过一个程式化的算例和相应的数值研究验证了结果。代理模型误差分析的进展提高了对资本估算的信心。除误差分析外,该方法还可用于一般的敏感性分析和风险计算。
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引用次数: 0
Capital requirement modeling for market and non-life premium risk in a dynamic insurance portfolio 动态保险组合中市场和非寿险保费风险的资本需求模型
Q2 Mathematics Pub Date : 2023-10-31 DOI: 10.1017/s1748499523000234
Stefano Cotticelli, Nino Savelli
Abstract For some time now, Solvency II requires that insurance companies calculate minimum capital requirements to face the risk of insolvency, either in accordance with the Standard Formula or using a full or partial Internal Model. An Internal Model must be based on a market-consistent valuation of assets and liabilities at a 1-year time span, where a real-world probabilistic structure is used for the first year of projection. In this paper, we describe the major risks of a non-life insurance company, i.e. the non-life underwriting risk and market risk, and their interactions, focusing on the non-life premium risk, equity risk, and interest rate risk. This analysis is made using some well-known stochastic models in the financial-actuarial literature and practical insurance business, i.e. the Collective Risk Model for non-life premium risk, the Geometric Brownian Motion for equity risk, and a real-world version of the G2++ Model for interest rate risk, where parameters are calibrated on current and real market data. Finally, we illustrate a case study on a single-line and a multi-line insurance company in order to see how the risk drivers behave in both a stand-alone and an aggregate framework.
一段时间以来,偿付能力II要求保险公司计算面对破产风险的最低资本要求,要么根据标准公式,要么使用全部或部分内部模型。内部模型必须基于1年时间跨度内的市场一致的资产和负债估值,其中第一年的预测使用真实世界的概率结构。本文描述了非寿险公司的主要风险,即非寿险承保风险和市场风险,以及它们之间的相互作用,重点介绍了非寿险保费风险、股权风险和利率风险。本分析使用了金融精算文献和实际保险业务中一些著名的随机模型,即用于非寿险保费风险的集体风险模型,用于股票风险的几何布朗运动模型,以及用于利率风险的G2++模型的现实版本,其中参数是根据当前和实际市场数据校准的。最后,我们将举例说明单线和多线保险公司的案例研究,以便了解风险驱动因素在独立和聚合框架中的行为。
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引用次数: 0
A changing climate for actuarial science 精算科学的气候变化
Q2 Mathematics Pub Date : 2023-10-24 DOI: 10.1017/s1748499523000222
Mathieu Boudreault, Iain Clacher, Johnny Siu-Hang Li, Catherine Pigott, Rui Zhou
An abstract is not available for this content. As you have access to this content, full HTML content is provided on this page. A PDF of this content is also available in through the ‘Save PDF’ action button.
此内容没有摘要。当您可以访问此内容时,该页上会提供完整的HTML内容。此内容的PDF也可以通过“保存PDF”操作按钮获得。
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引用次数: 0
An assessment of model risk in pricing wind derivatives 风衍生品定价模型风险评估
Q2 Mathematics Pub Date : 2023-09-21 DOI: 10.1017/s1748499523000192
Giovani Gracianti, Rui Zhou, Johnny Siu-Hang Li, Xueyuan Wu
Abstract Wind derivatives are financial instruments designed to mitigate losses caused by adverse wind conditions. With the rapid growth of wind power capacity due to efforts to reduce carbon emissions, the demand for wind derivatives to manage uncertainty in wind power production is expected to increase. However, existing wind derivative literature often assumes normally distributed wind speed, despite the presence of skewness and leptokurtosis in historical wind speed data. This paper investigates how the misspecification of wind speed models affects wind derivative prices and proposes the use of the generalized hyperbolic distribution to account for non-normality. The study develops risk-neutral approaches for pricing wind derivatives using the conditional Esscher transform, which can accommodate stochastic processes with any distribution, provided the moment-generating function exists. The analysis demonstrates that model risk varies depending on the choice of the underlying index and the derivative’s payoff structure. Therefore, caution should be exercised when choosing wind speed models. Essentially, model risk cannot be ignored in pricing wind speed derivatives.
风衍生品是旨在减轻不利风条件造成的损失的金融工具。由于减少碳排放的努力,风力发电容量迅速增长,预计对风力衍生产品的需求将增加,以管理风力发电的不确定性。然而,尽管历史风速数据存在偏态和细峰态,但现有的风导数文献通常假设风速为正态分布。本文研究了风速模型的错误规范如何影响风衍生品价格,并提出使用广义双曲分布来解释非正态性。本研究利用条件Esscher变换开发了风衍生品定价的风险中性方法,该方法可以适应任何分布的随机过程,只要存在矩生成函数。分析表明,模型风险随标的指数的选择和衍生品的收益结构而变化。因此,在选择风速模型时应谨慎。在风速衍生品定价中,模型风险是不可忽视的。
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引用次数: 1
Individual life insurance during epidemics 流行病期间的个人人寿保险
Q2 Mathematics Pub Date : 2023-09-13 DOI: 10.1017/s1748499523000209
Laura Francis, Mogens Steffensen
Abstract The coronavirus pandemic has created a new awareness of epidemics, and insurance companies have been reminded to consider the risk related to infectious diseases. This paper extends the traditional multi-state models to include epidemic effects. The main idea is to specify the transition intensities in a Markov model such that the impact of contagion is explicitly present in the same way as in epidemiological models. Since we can study the Markov model with contagious effects at an individual level, we consider individual risk and reserves relating to insurance products, conforming with the standard multi-state approach in life insurance mathematics. We compare our notions with other but related notions in the literature and perform numerical illustrations.
新型冠状病毒大流行让人们对流行病有了新的认识,也提醒保险公司考虑与传染病相关的风险。本文扩展了传统的多状态模型,使其包含了流行病的影响。主要思想是在马尔可夫模型中指定过渡强度,以便传染的影响以与流行病学模型相同的方式明确呈现。由于我们可以在个体水平上研究具有传染效应的马尔可夫模型,因此我们考虑了与保险产品相关的个体风险和准备金,符合人寿保险数学中的标准多状态方法。我们将我们的概念与文献中其他相关概念进行比较,并进行数值说明。
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引用次数: 0
An uncertainty-based risk management framework for climate change risk 基于不确定性的气候变化风险管理框架
IF 1.7 Q2 Mathematics Pub Date : 2023-09-05 DOI: 10.1017/s1748499523000179
Rüdiger Kiesel, Gerhard Stahl
Climate risks are systemic risks and may be clustered according to so-called volatilities, uncertainties, complexities, and ambiguities (VUCA) criteria. We analyze climate risk in the VUCA concept and provide a framework that allows to interpret systemic risks as model risk. As climate risks are characterized by deep uncertainties (unknown unknowns), we argue that precautionary and resilient principles should be applied instead of capital-based risk measures (reasonable for known unknows). A prominent example of the proposed principles is the precommitment approach (PCA). Within the PCA, subjective probabilities allow to discriminate between tolerable risks and acceptable ones. The amount of determined solvency capital for acceptable risks and estimations of model risk may be aggregated by means of a multiplier approach. This framework is in line with the three-pillar approach of Solvency II, especially with the recovery and resolution plan. Furthermore, it fits smoothly to a hybrid approach of micro- and macroprudential supervision.
气候风险是系统性风险,可以根据所谓的波动性、不确定性、复杂性和模糊性(VUCA)标准进行聚类。我们分析了VUCA概念中的气候风险,并提供了一个框架,允许将系统性风险解释为模型风险。由于气候风险具有深刻的不确定性(未知的未知),我们认为应该采用预防和弹性原则,而不是基于资本的风险措施(对于已知的未知是合理的)。提出的原则的一个突出例子是预承诺方法(PCA)。在PCA中,主观概率允许区分可容忍的风险和可接受的风险。可接受风险的确定偿付能力资本数额和模型风险的估计可以用乘数法加以汇总。该框架符合《偿付能力II》的三支柱方法,特别是与复苏和处置计划相一致。此外,它还能很好地适应微观和宏观审慎监管的混合方法。
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引用次数: 1
Lapse risk modeling in insurance: a Bayesian mixture approach 保险中的失误风险建模:一种贝叶斯混合方法
IF 1.7 Q2 Mathematics Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.1017/s1748499523000180
Viviana G. R. Lobo, Thaís C. O. Fonseca, M. Alves
This paper focuses on modeling surrender time for policyholders in the context of life insurance. In this setup, a large lapse rate at the first months of a contract is often observed, with a decrease in this rate after some months. The modeling of the time to cancelation must account for this specific behavior. Another stylized fact is that policies which are not canceled in the study period are considered censored. To account for both censoring and heterogeneous lapse rates, this work assumes a Bayesian survival model with a mixture of regressions. The inference is based on data augmentation allowing for fast computations even for datasets of over millions of clients. Moreover, frequentist point estimation based on Expectation–Maximization algorithm is also presented. An illustrative example emulates a typical behavior for life insurance contracts, and a simulated study investigates the properties of the proposed model. A case study is considered and illustrates the flexibility of our proposed model allowing different specifications of mixture components. In particular, the observed censoring in the insurance context might be up to $50%$ of the data, which is very unusual for survival models in other fields such as epidemiology. This aspect is exploited in our simulated study.
本文主要研究人寿保险背景下投保人的退保时间模型。在这种设置中,通常在合同的前几个月观察到较大的失效率,几个月后该失效率会下降。取消时间的建模必须考虑到这种特定的行为。另一个程式化的事实是,在研究期间没有取消的政策被视为审查。为了考虑审查率和异质失效率,这项工作假设了一个混合回归的贝叶斯生存模型。该推断基于数据扩充,即使对于数百万客户端的数据集也可以进行快速计算。此外,还提出了基于期望-最大化算法的频率点估计。一个示例模拟了人寿保险合同的典型行为,并对所提出的模型的性质进行了模拟研究。通过一个案例研究,说明了我们提出的模型的灵活性,允许不同规格的混合物成分。特别是,在保险背景下观察到的审查可能高达数据的50%,这对于流行病学等其他领域的生存模型来说是非常不寻常的。在我们的模拟研究中利用了这一方面。
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引用次数: 0
Plant growth stages and weather index insurance design 植物生长阶段与天气指数保险设计
IF 1.7 Q2 Mathematics Pub Date : 2023-08-03 DOI: 10.1017/s1748499523000167
Jing Zou, M. Odening, Ostap Okhrin
Given the assumption that weather risks affect crop yields, we designed a weather index insurance product for soybean producers in the US state of Illinois. By separating the entire vegetation cycle into four growth stages, we investigate whether the phase-division procedure contributes to weather–yield loss relation estimation and, hence, to basis risk mitigation. Concretely, supposing stage-variant interaction patterns between temperature-based weather index growing degree days and rainfall-based weather index cumulative rainfall, a nonparametric weather–yield loss relation is estimated by a generalized additive model. The model includes penalized B-spline (P-spline) approach based on nonlinear optimal indemnity solutions under the expected utility framework. The P-spline analysis of variance (PS-ANOVA) method is used for efficient estimation through mixed model re-parameterization. The results indicate that the phase-division models significantly outperform the benchmark whole-cycle ones either under quadratic utility or exponential utility, given different levels of risk aversions. Finally, regarding hedging effectiveness, the expected utility ratio between the phase-division contract and the whole-cycle contract, and the percentage changes of mean root square loss and variance of revenues support the proposed phase-division contract.
假设天气风险影响作物产量,我们为美国伊利诺伊州的大豆生产者设计了一种天气指数保险产品。通过将整个植被周期划分为四个生长阶段,我们研究了阶段划分程序是否有助于天气-产量损失关系估计,从而有助于基础风险缓解。具体而言,假设基于温度的天气指数增温日数与基于降雨量的天气指数累积降雨量之间存在阶段性的相互作用模式,利用广义加性模型估计了非参数天气-产量损失关系。该模型采用基于期望效用框架下非线性最优补偿解的惩罚b样条(p样条)方法。采用p样条方差分析(PS-ANOVA)方法,通过混合模型再参数化进行有效估计。结果表明,在风险厌恶程度不同的情况下,分相模型在二次效用和指数效用下均显著优于基准全周期模型。最后,在套期保值有效性方面,分阶段合约与全周期合约之间的预期效用比、均方根损失和收益方差的百分比变化均支持建议的分阶段合约。
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引用次数: 1
Portfolio management for insurers and pension funds and COVID-19: targeting volatility for equity, balanced, and target-date funds with leverage constraints 针对保险公司、养老基金和COVID-19的投资组合管理:针对杠杆限制下的股票、平衡基金和目标日期基金的波动性
IF 1.7 Q2 Mathematics Pub Date : 2023-07-11 DOI: 10.1017/s1748499523000143
Bao Doan, Jonathan J. Reeves, Michael Sherris
Insurers and pension funds face the challenges of historically low-interest rates and high volatility in equity markets, that have been accentuated due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Recent advances in equity portfolio management with a target volatility have been shown to deliver improved on average risk-adjusted return, after transaction costs. This paper studies these targeted volatility portfolios in applications to equity, balanced, and target-date funds with varying constraints on leverage. Conservative leverage constraints are particularly relevant to pension funds and insurance companies, with more aggressive leverage levels appropriate for alternative investments. We show substantial improvements in fund performance for differing leverage levels, and of most interest to insurers and pension funds, we show that the highest Sharpe ratios and smallest drawdowns are in targeted volatility-balanced portfolios with equity and bond allocations. Furthermore, we demonstrate the outperformance of targeted volatility portfolios during major stock market crashes, including the crash from the COVID-19 pandemic.
保险公司和养老基金面临着历史上低利率和股票市场高度波动的挑战,这些挑战因COVID-19大流行而加剧。具有目标波动率的股票投资组合管理的最新进展已被证明,在扣除交易成本后,可提供更高的经风险调整后的平均回报。本文研究了这些目标波动率组合在不同杠杆约束下的股票基金、平衡基金和目标日期基金中的应用。保守的杠杆限制与养老基金和保险公司尤其相关,更激进的杠杆水平适合另类投资。我们展示了不同杠杆水平下基金业绩的显著改善,保险公司和养老基金最感兴趣的是,我们展示了最高的夏普比率和最小的回撤是在股票和债券配置的目标波动性平衡投资组合中。此外,我们还证明了在重大股市崩盘期间,包括COVID-19大流行造成的崩盘期间,目标波动率投资组合的表现优于其他投资组合。
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引用次数: 0
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Annals of Actuarial Science
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