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Optimal control of interbank contagion under complete information 完全信息下银行间传染的最优控制
IF 1.5 Q4 Mathematics Pub Date : 2013-12-28 DOI: 10.1515/strm-2013-1165
Andreea Minca, A. Sulem
Abstract We study a preferred equity infusion government program set to mitigate interbank contagion. Financial institutions are prone to insolvency risk channeled through the network of interbank debt and to funding liquidity risk. The government seeks to maximize, under budget constraints, the total net worth of the financial system or, equivalently, to minimize the dead-weight losses induced by bank runs. The government is assumed to have complete information on interbank debt. The problem of quantifying the optimal amount of infusions can be expressed as a convex combinatorial optimization problem, tractable when the set of banks eligible for intervention (core banks) is sufficiently, yet realistically, small. We find that no bank has an incentive to withdraw from the program, when the preferred dividend rate paid to the government is equal to the government's outside return on the intervention budget. On the other hand, it may be optimal for the government to make infusions in a strict subset of core banks.
摘要本文研究了一项旨在缓解银行间传染的政府优先股注入计划。金融机构容易面临通过银行间债务网络传导的资不抵债风险和资金流动性风险。在预算限制下,政府寻求使金融体系的总净值最大化,或者,同样地,最小化银行挤兑造成的无谓损失。政府被认为拥有银行间债务的完整信息。量化最优注资量的问题可以表示为一个凸组合优化问题,当有资格进行干预的银行(核心银行)足够小时,这个问题就可以处理。我们发现,当支付给政府的优先股息率等于政府干预预算的外部回报时,没有银行有退出计划的动机。另一方面,政府对核心银行进行严格的注资可能是最优的。
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引用次数: 19
Risk management with high-dimensional vine copulas: An analysis of the Euro Stoxx 50 高维葡萄球菌风险管理:对欧洲斯托克50指数的分析
IF 1.5 Q4 Mathematics Pub Date : 2013-12-01 DOI: 10.1524/strm.2013.2002
E. Brechmann, C. Czado
Abstract The demand for an accurate financial risk management involving larger numbers of assets is strong not only in view of the financial crisis of 2007–2009. Especially dependencies among assets have not been captured adequately. While standard multivariate copulas have added some flexibility, this flexibility is insufficient in higher dimensional applications. Vine copulas can fill this gap by benefiting from the rich class of existing bivariate parametric copula families. Exploiting this in combination with GARCH models for the margins, we develop a regular vine copula based factor model for asset returns, the Regular Vine Market Sector model, which is motivated by the classical CAPM and shown to be superior to the CAVA model proposed by Heinen and Valdesogo (2009). The model can also be used to separate the systematic and idiosyncratic risk of specific stocks, and we explicitly discuss how vine copula models can be employed for active and passive portfolio management. In particular, Value-at-Risk forecasting and asset allocation are treated in detail. All developed models and methods are used to analyze the Euro Stoxx 50 index, a major market indicator for the Eurozone. Relevant benchmark models such as the popular DCC model and the common Student's t copula are taken into account.
摘要2007-2009年金融危机爆发后,对涉及更大规模资产的准确金融风险管理的需求日益强烈。特别是资产之间的依赖关系没有被充分捕获。虽然标准的多元copuls增加了一些灵活性,但这种灵活性在高维应用中是不够的。Vine copula可以利用现有的丰富的二元参数copula族来填补这一空白。利用这一理论与GARCH边际模型相结合,我们开发了一个基于常规vine copula的资产回报因子模型,即常规vine市场部门模型,该模型由经典CAPM驱动,并被证明优于Heinen和Valdesogo(2009)提出的CAVA模型。该模型还可以用于分离特定股票的系统风险和特质风险,并明确讨论了如何将藤联结模型用于主动和被动投资组合管理。特别是,在风险价值预测和资产配置的详细处理。所有开发的模型和方法都用于分析欧洲斯托克50指数,这是欧元区的主要市场指标。考虑了相关的基准模型,如流行的DCC模型和常见的Student's t copula。
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引用次数: 169
Dynamic structured copula models 动态结构联结模型
IF 1.5 Q4 Mathematics Pub Date : 2013-12-01 DOI: 10.1524/strm.2013.2004
W. Härdle, Ostap Okhrin, Yarema Okhrin
Abstract There is an increasing demand for models of multivariate time-series with time-varying and non-Gaussian dependencies. The available models suffer from the curse of dimensionality or from restrictive assumptions on the parameters and distributions. A promising class of models is that of hierarchical Archimedean copulae (HAC), which allows for non-exchangeable and non-Gaussian dependency structures with a small number of parameters. In this paper we develop a novel adaptive estimation technique of the parameters and of the structure of HAC for time-series. The approach relies on a local change-point detection procedure and a locally constant HAC approximation. Typical applications are in the financial area but also recently in the spatial analysis of weather parameters. We analyse the time varying dependency structure of stock indices and exchange rates. Both examples reveal periods with constant and turmoil dependencies. The economic significance of the suggested modelling is evaluated using the Value-at-Risk of a portfolio.
摘要对具有时变非高斯依赖关系的多变量时间序列模型的需求越来越大。可用的模型受到维度的诅咒或对参数和分布的限制性假设的影响。一类很有前途的模型是分层阿基米德copulae (HAC)模型,它允许具有少量参数的非交换和非高斯依赖结构。本文提出了一种新的时间序列HAC参数和结构的自适应估计技术。该方法依赖于局部变化点检测过程和局部常数HAC近似。典型的应用是在金融领域,但最近也在天气参数的空间分析。我们分析了股票指数和汇率的时变依赖结构。这两个例子都揭示了持续和动荡依赖关系的时期。使用投资组合的风险价值来评估所建议模型的经济意义。
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引用次数: 15
Asymptotically stable dynamic risk assessments 渐近稳定动态风险评估
IF 1.5 Q4 Mathematics Pub Date : 2013-03-28 DOI: 10.1515/strm-2012-1146
Karl-Theodor Eisele, M. Kupper
Abstract In this paper we study asymptotically stable risk assessments (or equivalently risk measures) which have the property that an unacceptable position cannot become acceptable by adding a huge cash-flow far in the future. Under an additional continuity assumption, these risk assessments are exactly those which have a robust representation in terms of test probabilities that are supported on a finite time interval. For time-consistent risk assessments we give conditions on their generators which guarantee asymptotic stability.
摘要本文研究了渐近稳定风险评估(或等价的风险度量)的性质,即不能通过在遥远的未来增加巨大的现金流而使不可接受的头寸变为可接受的头寸。在附加的连续性假设下,这些风险评估正是那些在有限时间间隔上支持的测试概率方面具有鲁棒表示的风险评估。对于时间一致的风险评估,我们给出了它们的发电机保证渐近稳定的条件。
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引用次数: 0
Editorial to the special issue on Copulae of Statistics & Risk Modeling 统计与风险建模关系特刊社论
IF 1.5 Q4 Mathematics Pub Date : 2013-01-01 DOI: 10.1524/strm.2013.9014
Ostap Okhrin
Abstract Copulae became an extremely popular tool in different areas of research. Since the first applications in risk management in the late 90th, they attracted many other quantitatively oriented sciences like biostatistics, hydrology and finance. The main reason originates in the Sklar (1959) theorem, which allows for separation of the marginal distributions from the dependency structure between the random variables. This editorial is organized as follows. In the first section we define the copulae and state the Sklar theorem. Some literature suggestions are given in the second section. The last section presents the content of this special issue.
摘要:Copulae在不同的研究领域已经成为一种非常流行的工具。自90年代末在风险管理方面的首次应用以来,它们吸引了许多其他以定量为导向的科学,如生物统计学、水文学和金融学。主要原因源于Sklar(1959)定理,该定理允许将边际分布从随机变量之间的依赖结构中分离出来。这篇社论的组织如下。在第一部分中,我们定义了交公式并说明了斯克拉定理。第二部分给出了一些文献建议。最后一节介绍本期特刊的内容。
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引用次数: 0
What makes dependence modeling challenging? Pitfalls and ways to circumvent them 是什么使依赖性建模具有挑战性?陷阱和规避它们的方法
IF 1.5 Q4 Mathematics Pub Date : 2013-01-01 DOI: 10.1524/strm.2013.2001
Jan-Frederik Mai, M. Scherer
Abstract We present a list of challenges one faces when given the task of modeling dependence between stochastic objects, with a special focus on financial applications. Our aim is to draw the readers' attention to common (and not so common) pitfalls and fallacies, and we particularly address readers who are new to dependence modeling. The presented list of challenges is clearly not complete, but it gives a flavor of how difficult and subtle the task of dependence modeling can be. Moreover, the readers shall get some intuition about what challenges are structural and cannot be overcome, and what challenges allow for a better solution than common practice might suggest.
摘要我们提出了当给定随机对象之间的依赖建模任务时所面临的挑战列表,特别关注金融应用。我们的目标是吸引读者注意常见的(和不那么常见的)陷阱和谬误,我们特别针对那些不熟悉依赖建模的读者。所提出的挑战列表显然不完整,但它让我们了解到依赖性建模的任务是多么困难和微妙。此外,读者应该对哪些挑战是结构性的、无法克服的,以及哪些挑战可以提供比一般实践可能建议的更好的解决方案有一些直觉。
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引用次数: 0
Bernstein estimator for unbounded copula densities 无界联结密度的Bernstein估计量
IF 1.5 Q4 Mathematics Pub Date : 2013-01-01 DOI: 10.1524/strm.2013.2003
T. Bouezmarni, El Ghouch, A. Taamouti
Abstract Copulas are widely used for modeling the dependence structure of multivariate data. Many methods for estimating the copula density functions are investigated. In this paper, we study the asymptotic properties of the Bernstein estimator for unbounded copula density functions. We show that the estimator converges to infinity at the corner and we establish its relative convergence when the copula density is unbounded. Also, we provide the uniform strong consistency of the estimator on every compact in the interior region. We investigate the finite sample performance of the estimator via an extensive simulation study and we compare the Bernstein copula density estimator with other nonparametric methods. Finally, we consider an empirical application where the asymmetric dependence between international equity markets (US, Canada, UK, and France) is examined.
copula被广泛用于多变量数据的依赖结构建模。研究了许多估计联结密度函数的方法。本文研究了无界联结密度函数的Bernstein估计量的渐近性质。我们证明了估计量在角处收敛到无穷,并证明了它在联结密度无界时的相对收敛性。此外,我们还给出了估计量在内区域上的一致强相合性。我们通过广泛的模拟研究研究了估计器的有限样本性能,并将Bernstein copula密度估计器与其他非参数方法进行了比较。最后,我们考虑了一个实证应用,其中检验了国际股票市场(美国、加拿大、英国和法国)之间的不对称依赖。
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引用次数: 26
Central clearing of OTC derivatives: Bilateral vs multilateral netting 场外衍生品的中央结算:双边结算与多边结算
IF 1.5 Q4 Mathematics Pub Date : 2012-09-01 DOI: 10.1515/strm-2013-1161
R. Cont, Thomas Kokholm
Abstract We study the impact of central clearing of over-the-counter (OTC) transactions on counterparty exposures in a market with OTC transactions across several asset classes with heterogeneous characteristics. The impact of introducing a central counterparty (CCP) on expected interdealer exposure is determined by the tradeoff between multilateral netting across dealers on one hand and bilateral netting across asset classes on the other hand. We find this tradeoff to be sensitive to assumptions on heterogeneity of asset classes in terms of `riskyness' of the asset class as well as correlation of exposures across asset classes. In particular, while an analysis assuming independent, homogeneous exposures suggests that central clearing is efficient only if one has an unrealistically high number of participants, the opposite conclusion is reached if differences in riskyness and correlation across asset classes are realistically taken into account. We argue that empirically plausible specifications of model parameters lead to the conclusion that central clearing does reduce interdealer exposures: the gain from multilateral netting in a CCP overweighs the loss of netting across asset classes in bilateral netting agreements. When a CCP exists for interest rate derivatives, adding a CCP for credit derivatives is shown to decrease overall exposures. These findings are shown to be robust to the statistical assumptions of the model as well as the choice of risk measure used to quantify exposures.
摘要本文研究了场外交易(OTC)的中央清算对交易对手风险敞口的影响,其中场外交易涉及多个具有异构特征的资产类别。引入中央交易对手(CCP)对预期交易商间风险敞口的影响取决于交易商之间的多边净额和资产类别之间的双边净额之间的权衡。我们发现,就资产类别的“风险”以及跨资产类别风险敞口的相关性而言,这种权衡对资产类别异质性的假设很敏感。特别是,虽然假设独立、同质风险敞口的分析表明,只有当参与者的数量高得不切实际时,中央清算才有效,但如果实际考虑到资产类别之间的风险和相关性差异,则得出相反的结论。我们认为,经验上合理的模型参数规范得出的结论是,中央清算确实减少了交易商之间的风险敞口:CCP中多边净额的收益超过了双边净额协议中跨资产类别净额的损失。当利率衍生品存在CCP时,为信用衍生品添加CCP会减少总体风险敞口。这些发现对于模型的统计假设以及用于量化暴露的风险度量的选择是稳健的。
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引用次数: 139
On dependence consistency of CoVaR and some other systemic risk measures CoVaR与其他系统风险测度的依赖一致性
IF 1.5 Q4 Mathematics Pub Date : 2012-07-14 DOI: 10.1515/strm-2013-1164
Georg Mainik, E. Schaanning
Abstract This paper is dedicated to the consistency of systemic risk measures with respect to stochastic dependence. It compares two alternative notions of Conditional Value-at-Risk (CoVaR) available in the current literature. These notions are both based on the conditional distribution of a random variable Y given a stress event for a random variable X , but they use different types of stress events. We derive representations of these alternative CoVaR notions in terms of copulas, study their general dependence consistency and compare their performance in several stochastic models. Our central finding is that conditioning on X  ≥ VaR α ( X ) gives a much better response to dependence between X and Y than conditioning on X  = VaR α ( X ). We prove general results that relate the dependence consistency of CoVaR using conditioning on X  ≥ VaR α ( X ) to well established results on concordance ordering of multivariate distributions or their copulas. These results also apply to some other systemic risk measures, such as the Marginal Expected Shortfall (MES) and the Systemic Impact Index (SII). We provide counterexamples showing that CoVaR based on the stress event X  = VaR α ( X ) is not dependence consistent. In particular, if ( X ,  Y ) is bivariate normal, then CoVaR based on X  = VaR α ( X ) is not an increasing function of the correlation parameter. Similar issues arise in the bivariate t model and in the model with t margins and a Gumbel copula. In all these cases, CoVaR based on X  ≥ VaR α ( X ) is an increasing function of the dependence parameter.
摘要研究随机依赖下系统风险测度的一致性问题。它比较了当前文献中可用的条件风险价值(CoVaR)的两种替代概念。这些概念都是基于给定随机变量X的压力事件的随机变量Y的条件分布,但它们使用不同类型的压力事件。我们推导了这些备选CoVaR概念在copula中的表示,研究了它们的一般依赖一致性,并比较了它们在几个随机模型中的表现。我们的中心发现是,条件X≥VaR α (X)比条件X = VaR α (X)对X和Y之间的依赖性有更好的反应。我们证明了在X≥VaR α (X)条件下CoVaR的依赖一致性与多元分布或它们的联结的一致性排序的一般结果。这些结果也适用于其他一些系统性风险指标,如边际预期缺口(MES)和系统影响指数(SII)。我们提供了反例,表明基于应力事件X = VaR α (X)的CoVaR不是依赖一致的。特别是,如果(X, Y)是二元正态,则基于X = VaR α (X)的CoVaR不是相关参数的递增函数。类似的问题也出现在双变量t模型和有t个边距和一个Gumbel copula的模型中。在所有这些情况下,基于X≥VaR α (X)的CoVaR是依赖参数的递增函数。
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引用次数: 165
Complete duality for quasiconvex dynamic risk measures on modules of the L p -type L - p型模上拟凸动态风险测度的完全对偶性
IF 1.5 Q4 Mathematics Pub Date : 2012-01-09 DOI: 10.1515/strm-2013-1163
M. Frittelli, Marco Maggis
Abstract In the conditional setting we provide a complete duality between quasiconvex risk measures defined on L 0 modules of the L p type and the appropriate class of dual functions. This is based on a general result which extends the usual Penot-Volle representation for quasiconvex real valued maps.
在条件条件下,给出了l0型模上的拟凸风险测度与对偶函数的适当类之间的完全对偶性。这是基于准凸实值映射通常的Penot-Volle表示的一般结果。
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引用次数: 38
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Statistics & Risk Modeling
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