The paper deals with the analysis of the relationship between public spending and growth as well as the dynamics of the ratio public debt/GDP. We show that a composition of public spending that favours productive expenditures, i.e. those with a direct positive effect on the economy's rate of growth, can determine a situation in which the ratio of the public debt to GDP is stable, even though the government runs primary de cits. We test our theoretical results by considering the Indian case that, for a number of reasons, appears to be consistent with our theoretical hypotheses and assumptions. The results of the empirical analysis substantially support the idea that the dynamics of the economy as well as of the ratio public debt/GDP are crucially contingent on having a public sector that favours productive expenditures.
{"title":"Public expenditure and growth: the Indian case","authors":"Antra Bhatt, C. Sardoni","doi":"10.4337/EJEEP.2020.0068","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4337/EJEEP.2020.0068","url":null,"abstract":"The paper deals with the analysis of the relationship between public spending and growth as well as the dynamics of the ratio public debt/GDP. We show that a composition of public spending that favours productive expenditures, i.e. those with a direct positive effect on the economy's rate of growth, can determine a situation in which the ratio of the public debt to GDP is stable, even though the government runs primary de cits. We test our theoretical results by considering the Indian case that, for a number of reasons, appears to be consistent with our theoretical hypotheses and assumptions. The results of the empirical analysis substantially support the idea that the dynamics of the economy as well as of the ratio public debt/GDP are crucially contingent on having a public sector that favours productive expenditures.","PeriodicalId":44368,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies-Intervention","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2020-08-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89987615","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Interview with Jerzy Osiatynski: Linking economics with economic policy-making","authors":"G. Konat","doi":"10.4337/ejeep.2020.0064","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4337/ejeep.2020.0064","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":44368,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies-Intervention","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2020-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76590571","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In this paper, we examine how value at risk (VaR) contributes to the financial market's stability. We apply the Guidelines on Risk Measurement and the Calculation of Global Exposure and Counterparty Risk for UCITS of the Committee of European Securities Regulators (CESR 2010) to the main indices of the 12 stock markets of the countries that have used the euro as their official currency since its initial circulation. We show that gaps in the legislative framework give incentives to investment funds to adopt conventional models for the VaR estimation in order to avoid the increased costs that the advanced models involve. For this reason, we apply the commonly used historical simulation VaR (HVaR) model, which is: (i) taught at most finance classes; (ii) widely applied in the financial industry; and (iii) accepted by CESR (2010). The empirical evidence shows the HVaR does not really contribute to financial stability, and the legislative framework does not offer the appropriate guidance. The HVaR model is not representative of the real financial risk, and does not give any signal for trends in the near future. The HVaR is absolutely backward-looking and this increases the stock market's overreaction. The fact that the suggested confidence level in CESR (2010) is set at 99 percent leads to hidden pro-cyclicality. Scholars and researchers should focus on issues such as the abovementioned, otherwise the VaR estimations will become, sooner or later, just a formality, and such conventional statistical measures rarely contribute to financial stability.
{"title":"What do the value-at-risk measure and the respective legislative framework really offer to financial stability? Critical views and pro-cyclicality","authors":"Evangelos Vasileiou, Themis D. Pantos","doi":"10.4337/EJEEP.2019.0040","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4337/EJEEP.2019.0040","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, we examine how value at risk (VaR) contributes to the financial market's stability. We apply the Guidelines on Risk Measurement and the Calculation of Global Exposure and Counterparty Risk for UCITS of the Committee of European Securities Regulators (CESR 2010) to the main indices of the 12 stock markets of the countries that have used the euro as their official currency since its initial circulation. We show that gaps in the legislative framework give incentives to investment funds to adopt conventional models for the VaR estimation in order to avoid the increased costs that the advanced models involve. For this reason, we apply the commonly used historical simulation VaR (HVaR) model, which is: (i) taught at most finance classes; (ii) widely applied in the financial industry; and (iii) accepted by CESR (2010). The empirical evidence shows the HVaR does not really contribute to financial stability, and the legislative framework does not offer the appropriate guidance. The HVaR model is not representative of the real financial risk, and does not give any signal for trends in the near future. The HVaR is absolutely backward-looking and this increases the stock market's overreaction. The fact that the suggested confidence level in CESR (2010) is set at 99 percent leads to hidden pro-cyclicality. Scholars and researchers should focus on issues such as the abovementioned, otherwise the VaR estimations will become, sooner or later, just a formality, and such conventional statistical measures rarely contribute to financial stability.","PeriodicalId":44368,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies-Intervention","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2020-04-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88411498","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper derives firms’ desired rate of utilization from an explicit maximization of a conjectured rate of profit at the micro level. Invoking a strategic complementarity, desired utilization is thus an increasing function of not only the profit share but also the actual utilization. Drawing on recent empirical material and a straightforward functional specification, the model is subsequently numerically calibrated. In particular, this ensures a unique solution for a steady-state position in which the actual and the endogenous desired rates of utilization coincide. On the other hand, it turns out that the anticipated losses of firms by not producing at the desired level are rather small. Hence there may be only weak pressure on them to close a utilization gap in the ordinary way by suitable adjustments in fixed investment. It is indicated that this finding may serve Kaleckian economists as a more rigorous justification for viewing their equilibria as pertaining to the long run, even if they allow actual utilization to deviate persistently from desired utilization.
{"title":"An attempt at a reconciliation of the Sraffian and Kaleckian views on desired utilization","authors":"R. Franke","doi":"10.4337/EJEEP.2019.0045","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4337/EJEEP.2019.0045","url":null,"abstract":"This paper derives firms’ desired rate of utilization from an explicit maximization of a conjectured rate of profit at the micro level. Invoking a strategic complementarity, desired utilization is thus an increasing function of not only the profit share but also the actual utilization. Drawing on recent empirical material and a straightforward functional specification, the model is subsequently numerically calibrated. In particular, this ensures a unique solution for a steady-state position in which the actual and the endogenous desired rates of utilization coincide. On the other hand, it turns out that the anticipated losses of firms by not producing at the desired level are rather small. Hence there may be only weak pressure on them to close a utilization gap in the ordinary way by suitable adjustments in fixed investment. It is indicated that this finding may serve Kaleckian economists as a more rigorous justification for viewing their equilibria as pertaining to the long run, even if they allow actual utilization to deviate persistently from desired utilization.","PeriodicalId":44368,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies-Intervention","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2020-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85684685","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-04-01DOI: 10.4337/EJEEP.2019.00050
Emiliano Libman, Gabriel Palazzo
This paper highlights the role of external indebtedness and the presence of inflationary inertia in order to assess the effectiveness and sustainability of inflation targeting during disinflation episodes. As the recent Argentinian experience illustrates, a sluggish inflation rate and a significant current-account deficit may make the stabilization process difficult. To illustrate the point, we build a model that shows that, when inflation adjusts fast, the target may be achieved without building too much external debt. But if inflation adjusts slowly, an excessive build-up of external debt could lead to an increase in the risk premium, a sudden shortage of foreign exchange, and the eventual collapse of the inflation-targeting regime.
{"title":"Inflation targeting, disinflation, and debt traps in Argentina","authors":"Emiliano Libman, Gabriel Palazzo","doi":"10.4337/EJEEP.2019.00050","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4337/EJEEP.2019.00050","url":null,"abstract":"This paper highlights the role of external indebtedness and the presence of inflationary inertia in order to assess the effectiveness and sustainability of inflation targeting during disinflation episodes. As the recent Argentinian experience illustrates, a sluggish inflation rate and a significant current-account deficit may make the stabilization process difficult. To illustrate the point, we build a model that shows that, when inflation adjusts fast, the target may be achieved without building too much external debt. But if inflation adjusts slowly, an excessive build-up of external debt could lead to an increase in the risk premium, a sudden shortage of foreign exchange, and the eventual collapse of the inflation-targeting regime.","PeriodicalId":44368,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies-Intervention","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2020-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81454082","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-04-01DOI: 10.4337/ejeep.2020.01.07
Torsten Niechoj
{"title":"Book review: Brancaccio, E. and Califano, A. (2018): Anti-Blanchard Macroeconomics, Cheltenham, UK and Northampton, MA, USA (158 pages, Edward Elgar Publishing, hardcover, also available as paperback and ebook, ISBN 978-1-78811-899-6)","authors":"Torsten Niechoj","doi":"10.4337/ejeep.2020.01.07","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4337/ejeep.2020.01.07","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":44368,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies-Intervention","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2020-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78979651","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-04-01DOI: 10.4337/ejeep.2020.01.01
M. Lavoie
{"title":"‘If you are convinced that post-Keynesian economics is a good way of thinking, get on with it’: Interview with Victoria Chick","authors":"M. Lavoie","doi":"10.4337/ejeep.2020.01.01","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4337/ejeep.2020.01.01","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":44368,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies-Intervention","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2020-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74265386","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-04-01DOI: 10.4337/ejeep.2020.01.02
M. Lavoie
Geoffrey Hodgson has recently published a book where he wonders why heterodox economics seems to thrive while at the same time losing ground within the most prestigious universities. Although Hodgson considers himself to be a heterodox economist, he complains about the way heterodoxy has been defined by some of its most active thinkers, in particular Frederic Lee and Tony Lawson. Hodgson believes that heterodox economics should be defined neither by a left-leaning ideology nor by critical realism. He argues that too much energy has been devoted to the study of macroeconomics by the Marxist and post-Keynesian brands of heterodox economics, as they left aside what he believes to be the crucial issue of microeconomic behaviour which can be found in behavioural and evolutionary economics. Hodgson further argues that what he considers to be the decline in the impact of heterodox economics is partly due to a lack of quality control. The paper outlines and comments on these various assertions.
{"title":"Heterodox economics as seen by Geoffrey Hodgson: an assessment","authors":"M. Lavoie","doi":"10.4337/ejeep.2020.01.02","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4337/ejeep.2020.01.02","url":null,"abstract":"Geoffrey Hodgson has recently published a book where he wonders why heterodox economics seems to thrive while at the same time losing ground within the most prestigious universities. Although Hodgson considers himself to be a heterodox economist, he complains about the way heterodoxy has been defined by some of its most active thinkers, in particular Frederic Lee and Tony Lawson. Hodgson believes that heterodox economics should be defined neither by a left-leaning ideology nor by critical realism. He argues that too much energy has been devoted to the study of macroeconomics by the Marxist and post-Keynesian brands of heterodox economics, as they left aside what he believes to be the crucial issue of microeconomic behaviour which can be found in behavioural and evolutionary economics. Hodgson further argues that what he considers to be the decline in the impact of heterodox economics is partly due to a lack of quality control. The paper outlines and comments on these various assertions.","PeriodicalId":44368,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies-Intervention","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2020-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84018294","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We address the question posed in the title of this paper by investigating recent developments in the literature that estimates the NAIRU. A necessary condition for the existence of a NAIRU is dynamic homogeneity: the Phillips curve should be homogenous of degree one in lagged and/or expected inflation. But contemporary approaches to estimating the NAIRU typically assume rather than test for dynamic homogeneity, thus assuming (rather than testing for) the existence of a NAIRU. We argue that these developments remove the NAIRU from the domain of testable hypotheses and transform the concept into an article of faith. This does not constitute scientific progress.
{"title":"Is there scientific progress in macroeconomics? The case of the NAIRU*","authors":"Dany Lang, M. Setterfield, Ibrahim Shikaki","doi":"10.4337/EJEEP.2019.0041","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4337/EJEEP.2019.0041","url":null,"abstract":"We address the question posed in the title of this paper by investigating recent developments in the literature that estimates the NAIRU. A necessary condition for the existence of a NAIRU is dynamic homogeneity: the Phillips curve should be homogenous of degree one in lagged and/or expected inflation. But contemporary approaches to estimating the NAIRU typically assume rather than test for dynamic homogeneity, thus assuming (rather than testing for) the existence of a NAIRU. We argue that these developments remove the NAIRU from the domain of testable hypotheses and transform the concept into an article of faith. This does not constitute scientific progress.","PeriodicalId":44368,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies-Intervention","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2020-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74108244","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The 2010s have witnessed a new shift in central banking and, partially at least, in monetary economics and macroeconomic modelling. It is a fact that the endogenous money theory has been gradually clawing back popularity at the expense of the classical theory of interest rates, the financial intermediation view of banks, the money-multiplier story and the quantity theory of money. However, the loanable funds theory and the view of banks as pure financial intermediaries (sometimes coupled with the money-multiplier story) are still sometimes invoked. In addition, the dynamic process of creation, circulation and destruction of money is usually neglected. The point is that money endogeneity is still regarded by many mainstream economists as a mere empirical fact, not a key feature of capitalist market-based economies to be properly explained by a logically consistent theory. By contrast, dissenting economists have further advanced the endogenous money view through: (a) a generalised theory of the endogenous process of money creation; (b) the increasing popularity of modern monetary theory in the public debate; and (c) the development of aggregative stock–flow consistent models and agent-based stock–flow consistent models as an alternative to dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models.
{"title":"Monetary economics after the global financial crisis: what has happened to the endogenous money theory?","authors":"G. Fontana, R. Realfonzo, M. Passarella","doi":"10.4337/ejeep.2020.0056","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4337/ejeep.2020.0056","url":null,"abstract":"The 2010s have witnessed a new shift in central banking and, partially at least, in monetary economics and macroeconomic modelling. It is a fact that the endogenous money theory has been gradually clawing back popularity at the expense of the classical theory of interest rates, the financial intermediation view of banks, the money-multiplier story and the quantity theory of money. However, the loanable funds theory and the view of banks as pure financial intermediaries (sometimes coupled with the money-multiplier story) are still sometimes invoked. In addition, the dynamic process of creation, circulation and destruction of money is usually neglected. The point is that money endogeneity is still regarded by many mainstream economists as a mere empirical fact, not a key feature of capitalist market-based economies to be properly explained by a logically consistent theory. By contrast, dissenting economists have further advanced the endogenous money view through: (a) a generalised theory of the endogenous process of money creation; (b) the increasing popularity of modern monetary theory in the public debate; and (c) the development of aggregative stock–flow consistent models and agent-based stock–flow consistent models as an alternative to dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models.","PeriodicalId":44368,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies-Intervention","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2020-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80548890","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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