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What is the Let? 什么是Let?
Pub Date : 2019-01-15 DOI: 10.1093/oso/9780190909482.003.0004
C. C. Fair
This chapter provides an historical account of LeT's ideological roots as well as its organizational and operational development, including its most recent foray into Pakistani politics despite decades of forswearing direct political participation. Even though Pakistan did not create LeT/JuD or its parent organization MDI, it quickly co-opted it and rendered it the most lethal and loyal proxy in Pakistan's arsenal for managing external threats but also for assisting its military and intelligence agencies domestically.
本章提供了虔诚军的意识形态根源及其组织和行动发展的历史描述,包括其最近在几十年来放弃直接政治参与的情况下对巴基斯坦政治的突袭。尽管巴基斯坦没有创建LeT/JuD或其母组织MDI,但它很快就吸收了它,并使其成为巴基斯坦武器库中最致命和最忠诚的代理人,既可以管理外部威胁,也可以协助其国内军事和情报机构。
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引用次数: 0
The Domestic Politics of Let Let的国内政治
Pub Date : 2019-01-15 DOI: 10.1093/oso/9780190909482.003.0006
C. C. Fair
Most scholars of Lashkar-e-Tayyaba/Jamaat ud Dawah (LeT/JuD) tend to view the tanzeem as a proxy militia for the Pakistani army. While the organization certainly performs this role, this narrow understanding undervalues the full scope of activities it performs, alongside the full range of political and social perquisites that the organization affords the Pakistani state, and thus, the importance that the state attaches to it. Presumably, the formation of the Milli Muslim League (MML) will further entrench this alliance between the state and the LeT/JuD. This chapter demonstrates that LeT/JuD performs a critical role in assisting the deep state to secure its domestic objectives as well as its foreign policies in India and Afghanistan.
虔诚军(Lashkar-e-Tayyaba) /达瓦慈善会(Jamaat ud Dawah, LeT/JuD)的大多数学者倾向于将坦齐姆视为巴基斯坦军队的代理民兵。虽然该组织确实发挥了这一作用,但这种狭隘的理解低估了它所执行的全部活动范围,以及该组织为巴基斯坦政府提供的全部政治和社会福利,因此,国家对它的重视程度。据推测,Milli Muslim League (MML)的成立将进一步巩固政府与LeT/JuD之间的联盟。本章表明,LeT/JuD在协助深层政府确保其国内目标以及在印度和阿富汗的外交政策方面发挥了关键作用。
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引用次数: 0
Who are the Soldiers in the Army of the Pure? 谁是纯洁军团的士兵?
Pub Date : 2019-01-15 DOI: 10.1093/oso/9780190909482.003.0005
C. Fair
Generally, writers on terrorism, particularly Islamist groups, frequently adduce that terrorists are poor, uneducated, and/or come from criminal backgrounds. Speaking of Islamist militants, writers have long argued that madaris are responsible for producing scores of Muslims ready to kill and die for their faith. Various governmental efforts to counter violent extremism (aka "CVE") tend to focus upon men of military age and often subsume many of the aforenoted assumptions about the deprived backgrounds of persons who join militant groups. Many of these ostensible insights are gleaned from anecdotal accounts of captured or killed militants. Fortunately, for understanding Lashkar-e-Tayyaba, we have a very rich source of data that allows us to glean considerable detail about the persons who fight, and ultimately die, for LeT, namely: the hundreds of biographies of slain LeT militants that are widely available in several LeT publications. This chapter provides quantitative and qualitative insights from 918 posthumous biographies of LeT militants, whom LeT calls shaheed (martyrs), assembled and analyzed by a team I oversaw at the Combating Terrorism Center at West Point. These data reveal that families are incredibly important in encouraging their sons to join the organization and ultimately to fight and die in its service.
一般来说,关于恐怖主义的作者,尤其是伊斯兰组织的作者,经常引用恐怖分子是贫穷的、没有受过教育的和/或有犯罪背景的人。说到伊斯兰武装分子,作家们长期以来一直认为,伊斯兰教长要为培养大量准备为自己的信仰而杀戮和牺牲的穆斯林负责。各种政府打击暴力极端主义(又名“CVE”)的努力往往集中在服兵役年龄的男性身上,并且经常包含上述关于加入激进组织的人的贫困背景的许多假设。这些表面上的见解,很多都是从被俘或被杀武装分子的轶事中得来的。幸运的是,为了了解虔诚军,我们有一个非常丰富的数据来源,使我们能够收集到有关为虔诚军作战并最终牺牲的人的大量细节,即:在虔诚军的几份出版物中广泛提供的数百名被杀的虔诚军武装分子的传记。本章从918位虔诚军战士的死后传记中提供了定量和定性的见解,虔诚军称他们为烈士。这些传记是由我在西点反恐中心监督的一个小组收集和分析的。这些数据表明,家庭在鼓励他们的儿子加入该组织并最终为之战斗和牺牲方面非常重要。
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引用次数: 0
The Genesis of Indo-Pakistan Security Competition1 印巴安全竞赛的起源
Pub Date : 2019-01-15 DOI: 10.1093/oso/9780190909482.003.0002
C. C. Fair
Understanding the tortured history of Pakistan's revisionist agenda with respect to India is critical to appreciating the utility of LeT and other militants to Pakistan's deep state. For this reason, this chapter provides a brief history of the independence movement, the inherent communal ideologies that Pakistan's proponents mobilized to achieve an independent state, and a precis of the disastrous Partition process that gave rise to India and Pakistan. Three particular issues remain significant in contemporary Pakistan. First, many Pakistanis continue to pass onto their descendants these tales of communally motivated murder, rape, and mayhem that accompanied the countries' births. Second, Pakistanis continue to assert that the way in which the British parsed the districts of the Punjab was inherently unfair and prejudicial to Pakistan's interests. Third, Pakistanis believe that the princely state of Kashmir should have gone to Pakistan and that the way in which the British carved up the Punjab enabled India to mobilize troops against Pakistani invaders, thus thwarting Pakistani efforts to secure the state by force.
了解巴基斯坦关于印度的修正主义议程的痛苦历史,对于理解虔诚军和其他武装分子对巴基斯坦深层政府的作用至关重要。出于这个原因,本章提供了独立运动的简史,巴基斯坦支持者为实现独立而动员的固有的社区意识形态,以及导致印度和巴基斯坦产生的灾难性分治过程的精确描述。在当代巴基斯坦,有三个特殊问题仍然很重要。首先,许多巴基斯坦人继续将这些伴随着国家诞生而发生的集体谋杀、强奸和伤害的故事传递给他们的后代。其次,巴基斯坦人继续声称,英国对旁遮普地区的划分方式本质上是不公平的,不利于巴基斯坦的利益。第三,巴基斯坦人认为克什米尔王公邦应该归巴基斯坦所有,英国瓜分旁遮普的方式使印度能够动员军队对抗巴基斯坦入侵者,从而挫败巴基斯坦用武力保卫克什米尔的努力。
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引用次数: 0
Dealing with Let and Escaping Pakistan’s Nuclear Coercion 如何应对巴基斯坦的核胁迫
Pub Date : 2019-01-15 DOI: 10.1093/oso/9780190909482.003.0007
C. C. Fair
Given Pakistan's strategic commitments and the risk aversion of policy-makers in the United States and India, what options exist for these states to deal with LeT specifically, or more generally, the problem of Pakistan's reliance upon terrorism as a key foreign policy tool? Admittedly, the options are few and not without risk. In this chapter, I lay out three broad sets of options: maintain the status quo; manage the narrow problem of LeT through enhanced counter-terrorism efforts and leadership decapitation; and develop a new complement of compellent policies to undermine Pakistan's heretofore successful nuclear coercion strategy. India cannot compel Pakistan to cease and desist from using terrorism as a tool of policy on its own; rather, the United States will have to assume the heaviest burden in this effort. However, there is important--if limited--space for Indian action even if the United States, per its historical record, declines to pursue this course of action
考虑到巴基斯坦的战略承诺和美国和印度决策者的风险规避,这些国家有什么选择来具体或更广泛地处理巴基斯坦依赖恐怖主义作为关键外交政策工具的问题?诚然,选择很少,而且并非没有风险。在本章中,我列出了三大类选择:维持现状;通过加强反恐努力和领导层斩首来处理虔诚军的狭隘问题;并制定一套新的强制性政策,以破坏巴基斯坦迄今为止成功的核胁迫战略。印度不能强迫巴基斯坦自己停止使用恐怖主义作为一种政策工具;相反,美国将不得不在这一努力中承担最沉重的负担。然而,即使美国根据其历史记录拒绝采取这一行动,印度也有重要的——如果有限的——行动空间
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引用次数: 0
Pakistan’s Creeping Jihad and Expanding Nuclear Umbrella 巴基斯坦圣战组织蔓延,核保护伞扩大
Pub Date : 2019-01-15 DOI: 10.1093/oso/9780190909482.003.0003
C. C. Fair
To complement and enable its advances at the lower end of the conflict spectrum, Pakistan also strategically acquired nuclear weapons. We now know that Pakistan had a crude device around 1983-4, if not earlier. As Pakistan became increasingly confident of its nuclear capabilities, it was more emboldened to use its proxies in India, secure in the belief that India would be unable to punish Pakistan militarily. Consequently, Pakistan's adventurism in India became bolder through the use of state-sponsored proxies, but also through Pakistani security forces masquerading as militants in the 1999 Kargil War. Until the reciprocal nuclear tests by India and then by Pakistan in May 1998, scholars used a term introduced by McGeorge Bundy, "existential deterrence," to describe the deterrence that seemed to exist between India and Pakistan. Given the opacity and uncertainty surrounding the two countries' programs, the mutual deterrence calculation of India and Pakistan did not rest on "relative capabilities and strategic doctrines, but on the shared realization that each side is nuclear-capable, and thus any outbreak of conflict might lead to a nuclear war." This chapter outlines the dual trajectories of Pakistan's development and deployment of Islamist proxies and nuclear weapons.
为了补充并使其在冲突频谱的低端取得进展,巴基斯坦还战略性地获得了核武器。我们现在知道,巴基斯坦在1983-4年左右(如果不是更早的话)就拥有了一个粗糙的装置。随着巴基斯坦对自己的核能力越来越有信心,它更大胆地利用其在印度的代理人,因为它相信印度无法在军事上惩罚巴基斯坦。因此,巴基斯坦在印度的冒险主义通过使用国家支持的代理人,以及通过在1999年卡吉尔战争中伪装成武装分子的巴基斯坦安全部队,变得更加大胆。在1998年5月印度和巴基斯坦相继进行核试验之前,学者们使用麦克乔治·邦迪(McGeorge Bundy)提出的一个术语“存在威慑”(existential deterrence)来描述印度和巴基斯坦之间似乎存在的威慑。考虑到两国计划的不透明性和不确定性,印度和巴基斯坦的相互威慑计算并不基于“相对能力和战略理论,而是基于双方都有核能力的共同认识,因此任何冲突的爆发都可能导致核战争”。本章概述了巴基斯坦发展和部署伊斯兰代理人和核武器的双重轨迹。
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引用次数: 0
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In Their Own Words
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