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Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation-Applications Methodology Technology-JDMS最新文献

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Modeling fog and friction in military enterprise 军事企业中雾和摩擦的建模
IF 0.8 Q3 Engineering Pub Date : 2023-08-28 DOI: 10.1177/15485129231195904
R. Wallace
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引用次数: 0
Adapting military doctrine in the shadow of the future 在未来的阴影下调整军事理论
IF 0.8 Q3 Engineering Pub Date : 2023-08-04 DOI: 10.1177/15485129231189286
Todd C. Lehmann
Strategic competition creates significant evolutionary pressures on conventional militaries to improve their doctrines and overall military effectiveness. Why are some militaries more effective at evolving their doctrine than others? This paper develops a theory which argues that complex security environments force militaries to optimize their organizations for the commitment horizon they possess for a security issue. This optimization drives militaries to take on particular organizational characteristics, such as the amount of delegation and the tolerance for experimenting with new tactics, which affect their performance in systematic ways as a result. Using an agent-based model, this study evaluates the theory by simulating different organizational characteristics and evaluating how doctrinal effectiveness changes based on different commitment horizons. Results from the simulations suggest a typology of militaries according to their commitment horizon. Contrary to existing arguments that military effectiveness is determined by a particular set of strategies or by a favorable military culture, the results also suggest that doctrinal effectiveness follows a U-shaped curve as the commitment horizon increases. To illustrate the logic of the model, this study describes the typology and its implications.
战略竞争给常规军队带来了重大的进化压力,要求他们改进自己的理论和整体军事效能。为什么一些军队比其他军队更有效地发展他们的学说?本文发展了一个理论,该理论认为复杂的安全环境迫使军队根据他们对安全问题的承诺范围优化他们的组织。这种优化促使军队采取特定的组织特征,例如授权的数量和对新战术试验的容忍度,从而以系统的方式影响他们的表现。本研究采用基于主体的模型,模拟不同的组织特征,评估不同承诺视界下教义有效性的变化。模拟的结果表明,根据他们的承诺范围,军队的类型。与现有的观点相反,军事效能是由一套特定的战略或有利的军事文化决定的,研究结果还表明,随着承诺范围的增加,理论效能遵循u型曲线。为了说明该模型的逻辑,本研究描述了类型及其含义。
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引用次数: 0
Modeling of Russian–Ukrainian war based on fuzzy cognitive map with genetic tuning 基于遗传调谐模糊认知图的俄乌战争建模
IF 0.8 Q3 Engineering Pub Date : 2023-08-04 DOI: 10.1177/15485129231184900
A. Rotshtein, Brian A. Polin, D. Katielnikov, Neskorodieva Tetiana
The Russian–Ukrainian conflict is considered as a dynamic system, whose variables are factors affecting the losses of the Russian army and the threat of the use of nuclear weapons. A fuzzy cognitive map (FCM) is used for modeling, that is, a directed graph whose vertices are model variables, and the weights of arcs are the degrees of positive and negative influences of variables on each other. The following factors influencing the losses of the Russian army and the threat of a nuclear strike were selected: resistance of the Ukrainian army, support of Ukraine with weapons, economic sanctions against Russia, opposition to the Russian government and its self-preservation instinct. The degrees of the influence of factors on each other and on the possibility of using nuclear weapons are evaluated by experts using fuzzy terms, which correspond to numeric values. To adjust the FCM, a genetic algorithm is used to select the degrees of influence of factors that minimize the discrepancy between the simulation results and expert estimations. The obtained FCM is used for scenario modeling of the conflict according to the “what if” scheme and ranking of factors according to their degree of influence on the level of nuclear threat.
俄乌冲突被认为是一个动态系统,其变量是影响俄军损失和使用核武器威胁的因素。使用模糊认知图(FCM)进行建模,即一个有向图,其顶点是模型变量,弧的权重是变量相互之间的正负影响程度。影响俄军损失和核打击威胁的因素有:乌克兰军队的抵抗、乌克兰的武器支持、对俄罗斯的经济制裁、对俄罗斯政府的反对以及俄罗斯政府的自我保护本能。各因素之间的相互影响程度以及对使用核武器可能性的影响程度由专家使用模糊术语进行评估,这些模糊术语对应于数值。为了调整FCM,采用遗传算法选择影响因素的程度,使仿真结果与专家估计的差异最小。得到的FCM根据“假设”方案对冲突进行情景建模,并根据其对核威胁水平的影响程度对因素进行排序。
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引用次数: 0
Decision-making in the shadow of strategic competition costs 战略竞争成本阴影下的决策
IF 0.8 Q3 Engineering Pub Date : 2023-07-24 DOI: 10.1177/15485129231186411
Karen E. Albert
In today’s current climate of near-peer conflict, it is important to understand the dynamics of strategic competition. Understanding these dynamics will improve decision-making in this environment, which is often called the gray zone of conflict. I use a two-stage simultaneous move game to study the state of strategic competition. The simulation of this model reveals two dynamics through which strategic competition can be managed. The first is the probability of winning a confrontation. The second is the cost of actions. As the cost of more-aggressive actions increases relative to the cost of less-aggressive actions, then even with higher chances of winning a confrontation, players are incentivized to choose less-aggressive actions. Increasing costs of the most-aggressive actions, but not the less-aggressive ones, offers decision-makers a second avenue through which they can encourage less-aggressive competition, which is less likely to instigate a full crisis or lead to war.
在当今势均力敌的环境下,理解战略竞争的动态是很重要的。了解这些动态将改善在这种环境中的决策,这种环境通常被称为冲突的灰色地带。本文采用两阶段同步博弈来研究战略竞争状态。该模型的仿真揭示了战略竞争管理的两种动态机制。首先是赢得对抗的可能性。第二是行动的成本。由于更具侵略性行动的成本相对于较不具侵略性行动的成本增加,因此即使赢得对抗的几率更高,玩家也会被激励选择较不具侵略性的行动。增加最激进行动的成本,而不是那些不那么激进的行动的成本,为决策者提供了第二种途径,通过这种途径,他们可以鼓励不那么激进的竞争,这种竞争不太可能引发全面危机或导致战争。
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引用次数: 0
Multiple UAVs on a shared tether: Use cases, modeling, and probabilistic path planning 共享缆绳上的多个无人机:用例,建模和概率路径规划
IF 0.8 Q3 Engineering Pub Date : 2023-07-11 DOI: 10.1177/15485129231185588
James Humann, Michael Equi, Natalie Link, Perla Latorre-Suarez
We analyze the concept of multiple unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) on a shared tether (MUST), where the UAVs act as control nodes for the shape of the tether, enabling the system to maneuver around obstacles without tangling or colliding for increased flexibility compared with single-tethered UAVs. MUST use cases are gathered from stakeholders in the military, public safety, and commercial domains. We present a model for the tether shape to use in collision checking and a model for the interactions among tether weight, size, and power, which we exercise to determine the maximum tether segment sizes. We apply three probabilistic path-planning algorithms from the literature to MUSTs, using a novel local planner and constraint set. In simulation, we show that probabilistic planners are a feasible approach to path planning for MUSTs with curved tether segments. We also show the first manual piloting modality of MUSTs.
我们分析了共享系绳(MUST)上的多架无人机(uav)的概念,其中无人机充当系绳形状的控制节点,使系统能够绕过障碍物而不会缠绕或碰撞,与单系绳无人机相比,灵活性更高。必须用例是从军事、公共安全和商业领域的涉众中收集的。我们提出了一个用于碰撞检查的系绳形状模型和一个系绳重量、尺寸和功率之间相互作用的模型,我们运用这些模型来确定最大的系绳段尺寸。我们将文献中的三种概率路径规划算法应用于MUSTs,使用了一种新的局部规划器和约束集。在仿真中,我们证明了概率规划是一种可行的方法来规划具有弯曲系绳段的must的路径。我们还展示了must的第一种手动驾驶模式。
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引用次数: 0
Back to the basics: international relations, intelligence, and strategic competition 回到最基本的问题:国际关系、情报和战略竞争
IF 0.8 Q3 Engineering Pub Date : 2023-07-03 DOI: 10.1177/15485129231185363
C. Q. Thurston
As United States foreign policy returns to a focus on great power competition, it is worth reviewing the fundamental theories associated with understanding the threat and its impact on state relations. The social science fields of international relations (IR) and security studies provide the foundational theory and associated concepts for strategic intelligence analysis in this area. The paper addresses four broad theories (realism, liberalism, economic structuralism, and constructivism) and illustrates their impact on policymakers and intelligence analysts as they craft strategy. The author argues for a more explicit inclusion of IR theories, frameworks, and methods in strategic intelligence analysis.
随着美国外交政策重新聚焦于大国竞争,有必要回顾一下与理解这种威胁及其对国家关系的影响有关的基本理论。国际关系(IR)和安全研究的社会科学领域为该领域的战略情报分析提供了基础理论和相关概念。本文阐述了四种广泛的理论(现实主义、自由主义、经济结构主义和建构主义),并说明了它们在制定战略时对政策制定者和情报分析师的影响。作者主张在战略情报分析中更明确地纳入IR理论、框架和方法。
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引用次数: 0
Developing a Blast Injury Modeling Capability: Application of Concepts from the Defense M&S Domain 发展爆炸损伤建模能力:国防M&S领域概念的应用
IF 0.8 Q3 Engineering Pub Date : 2023-07-03 DOI: 10.1177/15485129231184258
Ryan Byrne, Nichole Davis, Raj Gupta, Anthony C. Santago, A. Tolk
Increases in computational power have contributed to growing interest in using modeling and simulation (M&S) to better understand and address blast injury for US service members. The development of an M&S capability that can comprehensively simulate human injury, lethality, and impairment due to blast injury threats in the military environment requires a large, coordinated integration of many models and simulations. This contribution describes how various lessons learned from the defense M&S domain were used to support the future development of an envisioned Modeling Capability for blast injury by providing simulation functionality for simulation-based experimentation. It first addresses conceptually the interoperability challenges when more than one simulation can be or must be applied and possibly composed for the experiment. This leads to the development of a proposed concept of operations for the application of the Modeling Capability and the development of a framework of services needed to allow the identification of an applicable simulation solution, selecting the subset of those simulations, composing them for the experiment, and assessing the results. As a nascent endeavor, anticipated challenges for implementing these concepts are discussed, leveraging lessons learned regarding interoperability, composability, use of services, repositories, and development of simulation compositions to conduct simulation-based experiments.
计算能力的提高使得人们对使用建模和仿真(M&S)来更好地了解和解决美国服役人员的爆炸伤害越来越感兴趣。发展一种能够全面模拟军事环境中人体伤害、致命性和爆炸伤害威胁造成的损伤的M&S能力,需要对许多模型和模拟进行大规模、协调的集成。这篇文章描述了如何从国防M&S领域吸取各种经验教训,通过为基于仿真的实验提供仿真功能,来支持爆炸损伤建模能力的未来发展。它首先从概念上解决了当可以或必须应用多个模拟并可能为实验组合时的互操作性挑战。这导致为建模能力的应用开发一个拟议的操作概念,并开发一个服务框架,以允许识别适用的模拟解决方案,选择这些模拟的子集,将它们组合起来用于实验,并评估结果。作为一项新生的努力,我们讨论了实现这些概念的预期挑战,并利用有关互操作性、可组合性、服务使用、存储库和模拟组合开发的经验教训来进行基于模拟的实验。
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引用次数: 0
The lethality paradox: Goodhart’s Law and the challenge of measuring lethality 致命性悖论:古德哈特定律和衡量致命性的挑战
IF 0.8 Q3 Engineering Pub Date : 2023-06-02 DOI: 10.1177/15485129231165527
Adam T. Biggs, Joseph A. Hamilton, Greg Huffman, R. Markwald
Military performance must be evaluated, and one of the most critical concepts to measure involves the lethal capabilities of a military force. However, there are multiple challenges that complicate any accurate performance assessment, including theoretical issues of measurement due to statistical irregularities and practical limitations due to the military context. Here, we describe the lethality paradox, which states that measuring lethality could be a self-defeating exercise despite its necessity. Specifically, the value of any collected metric may be inherently reduced by the act of measurement while, also, creating operational vulnerabilities for a military force. This paradox is conceived as an extension of Goodhart’s Law and incorporates the same challenges of a personnel gaming a set standard rather than developing the skill set supposedly measured by this standard. Our discussion identifies the limitations and applications of Goodhart’s Law to lethality while also concluding with several proposed solutions to different paradoxical challenges.
军事表现必须进行评估,而衡量的最关键概念之一涉及军事力量的致命能力。然而,有多重挑战使任何准确的性能评估复杂化,包括由于统计不规范造成的测量理论问题和由于军事背景造成的实际限制。在这里,我们描述了致命性悖论,它表明,测量致命性可能是一种弄巧成拙的做法,尽管它是必要的。具体来说,任何收集到的度量值都可能因测量行为而固有地减少,同时也会为军事力量造成操作漏洞。这个悖论被认为是古德哈特定律的延伸,它包含了同样的挑战,即一个人在一套标准下游戏,而不是发展按该标准衡量的技能。我们的讨论确定了古德哈特定律在致命性方面的局限性和应用,同时也提出了针对不同矛盾挑战的几种解决方案。
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引用次数: 0
Preliminary debris risk assessment for mega-constellations in low and medium earth orbit due to satellite breakup 卫星解体对中低地球轨道巨型星座碎片风险的初步评估
IF 0.8 Q3 Engineering Pub Date : 2023-05-25 DOI: 10.1177/15485129231163868
J. Canoy, Robert A. Bettinger
This paper presents a theoretical analysis of the potential risk posed by artificial debris clouds in low Earth orbit (LEO) from mega-constellations, modeled after current communication constellations such as Starlink and OneWeb with 750 satellites each. The analysis examines three different constellation designs: a low-altitude LEO, a high-altitude LEO, and a medium Earth orbit (MEO) constellation, which will be positioned using the Walker-Delta design. The study is based on physics-based digital mission engineering and a Monte Carlo simulation framework. The simulation involves debris generated from a single breakup of one randomly selected satellite per run, but does not consider cascading debris events. This debris cloud is propagated for 1 week and how it interacts with the mega-constellation is recorded. The results show an average of 705.65 potential conjunctions within the LEO constellation, with 14.40% of those being considered catastrophic, and an average of 165.5 conjunctions in the MEO constellation, with 0.72% considered catastrophic.
本文对来自巨型星座的低地球轨道(LEO)人造碎片云的潜在风险进行了理论分析,模拟了当前的通信星座,如Starlink和OneWeb,每个星座有750颗卫星。该分析研究了三种不同的星座设计:低空LEO、高空LEO和中地球轨道(MEO)星座,将使用Walker-Delta设计进行定位。该研究基于基于物理的数字任务工程和蒙特卡罗仿真框架。该模拟涉及随机选择的一颗卫星每次运行时的单次解体产生的碎片,但不考虑级联碎片事件。这个碎片云传播了一周,记录了它与巨型星座的相互作用。结果表明,LEO星座平均有705.65个潜在连词,其中14.40%为灾难性连词;MEO星座平均有165.5个,其中0.72%为灾难性连词。
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引用次数: 1
A stochastic jump model applied to collaborative queue-based high energy laser defense 应用于协同队列高能激光防御的随机跳跃模型
IF 0.8 Q3 Engineering Pub Date : 2023-05-02 DOI: 10.1177/15485129231161092
Mitchell M Kracman
High energy lasers (HELs) are evolving to provide an effective solution for air and missile defense. The emergence of this technology comes at a similar time to the development of cooperative and collaborative defense systems that collect and communicate data to inform decisions. This paper proposes a stochastic jump method for modeling the performance of networked HELs, defending against aerial threats which follow a queueing methodology. By drawing on an existing method that quantifies performance using the sum of sojourn times in a stochastic jump process, the model can predict the probability of survival when multiple effectors are tasked in defending against an arbitrary number of threats. The model can be applied more generally to processes with both waiting time–dependent service and finite existence. Furthermore, a new HEL counteraction probability model is developed to enable the demonstration and comparison of three different system collaboration methods in a future warfare application. Results suggest the prevailing superimposing laser strategy may be less effective than simple one-to-one allocation of lasers to threats. There may also be merit in targeting separate components of a threat’s structure.
高能激光器(HELs)正在发展为防空和导弹防御提供有效的解决方案。这种技术的出现与协作和协同防御系统的发展同时出现,这些系统可以收集和通信数据以告知决策。本文提出了一种随机跳跃方法来模拟网络化HELs系统的性能,并采用排队方法来防御空中威胁。该模型利用随机跳跃过程中逗留时间总和量化性能的现有方法,可以预测多个效应器在防御任意数量威胁时的生存概率。该模型可以更普遍地应用于具有等待时间依赖服务和有限存在的过程。此外,建立了一种新的HEL对抗概率模型,以便在未来的战争应用中演示和比较三种不同的系统协作方法。结果表明,目前流行的叠加激光策略可能不如简单的一对一分配激光威胁有效。针对威胁结构的不同组成部分也可能是有益的。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation-Applications Methodology Technology-JDMS
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