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Inference for the Difference of Two Independent KS Sharpe Ratios under Lognormal Returns 对数正态收益下两个独立KS Sharpe比率差的推断
IF 1.1 Pub Date : 2020-10-10 DOI: 10.1155/2020/6751574
J. Qi, M. Rekkas, A. Wong
A higher-order likelihood-based asymptotic method to obtain inference for the difference between two KS Sharpe ratios when gross returns of an investment are assumed to be lognormally distributed is proposed. Theoretically, our proposed method has On3/2 distributional accuracy, whereas conventional methods for inference have On1/2 distributional accuracy. Using an example, we show how discordant confidence interval results can be depending on the methodology used. We are able to demonstrate the accuracy of our proposed method through simulation studies.
提出了一种基于高阶似然的渐近方法,用于推断当投资总收益假定为对数正态分布时两个KS-Sharpe比率之间的差异。从理论上讲,我们提出的方法−3/2分布精度,而传统的推理方法有−1/2分布精确通过一个例子,我们展示了置信区间结果的不一致性,这取决于所使用的方法。我们能够通过仿真研究证明我们提出的方法的准确性。
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引用次数: 0
On Estimation of Distribution Function Using Dual Auxiliary Information under Nonresponse Using Simple Random Sampling 无响应条件下双辅助信息分布函数的简单随机抽样估计
IF 1.1 Pub Date : 2020-09-26 DOI: 10.1155/2020/1693612
Saddam Hussain, Mi Zichuan, S. Hussain, Anum Iftikhar, M. Asif, S. Akhtar, Sohaib Ahmad
In this paper, we proposed two new families of estimators using the supplementary information on the auxiliary variable and exponential function for the population distribution functions in case of nonresponse under simple random sampling. The estimations are done in two nonresponse scenarios. These are nonresponse on study variable and nonresponse on both study and auxiliary variables. As we have highlighted above that two new families of estimators are proposed, in the first family, the mean was used, while in the second family, ranks were used as auxiliary variables. Expression of biases and mean squared error of the proposed and existing estimators are obtained up to the first order of approximation. The performances of the proposed and existing estimators are compared theoretically. On these theoretical comparisons, we demonstrate that the proposed families of estimators are better in performance than the existing estimators available in the literature, under the obtained conditions. Furthermore, these theoretical findings are braced numerically by an empirical study offering the proposed relative efficiencies of the proposed families of estimators.
在本文中,我们利用辅助变量的补充信息和简单随机抽样下无响应的总体分布函数的指数函数,提出了两个新的估计族。估计是在两种无响应的情况下进行的。这些是对研究变量没有反应,对研究变量和辅助变量都没有反应。正如我们在上面强调的那样,提出了两个新的估计族,在第一个族中,使用平均值,而在第二个族中使用秩作为辅助变量。获得了所提出的和现有估计量的偏差和均方误差的表达式,直到一阶近似。从理论上比较了所提出的估计量和现有估计量的性能。在这些理论比较中,我们证明了在所获得的条件下,所提出的估计族在性能上优于文献中现有的估计。此外,这些理论发现在数值上得到了实证研究的支持,该研究提供了所提出的估计族的相对效率。
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引用次数: 6
Comparative Analysis of Some Structural Equation Model Estimation Methods with Application to Coronary Heart Disease Risk 几种结构方程模型估计方法在冠心病危险性评估中的应用比较分析
IF 1.1 Pub Date : 2020-09-22 DOI: 10.1155/2020/4181426
D. Adedia, A. Adebanji, S. Appiah
This study compared a ridge maximum likelihood estimator to Yuan and Chan (2008) ridge maximum likelihood, maximum likelihood, unweighted least squares, generalized least squares, and asymptotic distribution-free estimators in fitting six models that show relationships in some noncommunicable diseases. Uncontrolled hypertension has been shown to be a leading cause of coronary heart disease, kidney dysfunction, and other negative health outcomes. It poses equal danger when asymptomatic and undetected. Research has also shown that it tends to coexist with diabetes mellitus (DM), with the presence of DM doubling the risk of hypertension. The study assessed the effect of obesity, type II diabetes, and hypertension on coronary risk and also the existence of converse relationship with structural equation modelling (SEM). The results showed that the two ridge estimators did better than other estimators. Nonconvergence occurred for most of the models for asymptotic distribution-free estimator and unweighted least squares estimator whilst generalized least squares estimator had one nonconvergence of results. Other estimators provided competing outputs, but unweighted least squares estimator reported unreliable parameter estimates such as large chi-square test statistic and root mean square error of approximation for Model 3. The maximum likelihood family of estimators did better than others like asymptotic distribution-free estimator in terms of overall model fit and parameter estimation. Also, the study found that increase in obesity could result in a significant increase in both hypertension and coronary risk. Diastolic blood pressure and diabetes have significant converse effects on each other. This implies those who are hypertensive can develop diabetes and vice versa.
本研究将岭最大似然估计量与Yuan和Chan(2008)的岭最大似然、最大似然、未加权最小二乘、广义最小二乘和无渐近分布估计量进行了比较,以拟合六个显示某些非传染性疾病关系的模型。失控的高血压已被证明是冠心病、肾功能障碍和其他负面健康后果的主要原因。当没有症状和未被发现时,它会带来同样的危险。研究还表明,它往往与糖尿病共存,糖尿病的存在会使患高血压的风险增加一倍。该研究评估了肥胖、II型糖尿病和高血压对冠状动脉风险的影响,以及与结构方程模型(SEM)的逆关系的存在。结果表明,这两种岭估计比其他估计做得更好。无渐近分布估计和未加权最小二乘估计的大多数模型都存在不收敛性,而广义最小二乘估计的结果只有一个不收敛性。其他估计量提供了竞争性的输出,但未加权最小二乘估计量报告了不可靠的参数估计,如模型3的大卡方检验统计量和近似均方根误差。在整体模型拟合和参数估计方面,最大似然估计族比其他类似于无渐近分布估计的估计族做得更好。此外,研究发现,肥胖的增加可能会导致高血压和冠状动脉风险的显著增加。舒张压和糖尿病有显著的相反影响。这意味着那些高血压患者可能会发展成糖尿病,反之亦然。
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引用次数: 7
Permutation Invariant Strong Law of Large Numbers for Exchangeable Sequences 交换序列的置换不变强数律
IF 1.1 Pub Date : 2020-09-17 DOI: 10.1155/2021/3637837
Stefan Tappe
We provide a permutation invariant version of the strong law of large numbers for exchangeable sequences of random variables. The proof consists of a combination of the Komlós–Berkes theorem, the usual strong law of large numbers for exchangeable sequences, and de Finetti’s theorem.
给出了随机变量可交换序列强数定律的一个置换不变版本。该证明由Komlós-Berkes定理、可交换序列的一般强大数定律和de Finetti定理的组合组成。
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引用次数: 0
Forecasting of Global Market Prices of Major Financial Instruments 主要金融工具的全球市场价格预测
IF 1.1 Pub Date : 2020-09-14 DOI: 10.1155/2020/1258463
Roshani W. Divisekara, Ruwan Dharshana Nawarathna, Lakshika S. Nawarathna
One of the easiest and fastest ways of building a healthy financial future is investing in the global market. However, the prices of the global market are highly volatile due to the impact of economic crises. Therefore, future prediction and comparison lead traders to make the low-risk decisions with price. The present study is based on time series modelling to forecast the daily close price values of financial instruments in the global market. The forecasting models were tested with two sample sizes, namely, 5-year close price values for correlation analysis and 3-year close price values for model building from 2013 January to 2018 January. The forecasting capabilities were compared for both ARIMA and GARCH class models, namely, TGARCH, APARCH, and EGARCH. The best-fitting model was selected based on the minimum value of the Akaike information criterion (AIC) and Bayesian information criteria (BIC). Finally, the comparison was carried out between ARIMA and GARCH class models using the measurement of forecast errors, based on the Root Mean Square Deviation (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The GARCH model was the best-fitted model for Australian Dollar, Feeder cattle, and Coffee. The APARCH model provides the best out-of-sample performance for Corn and Crude Oil. EGARCH and TGARCH were the better-fitted models for Gold and Treasury bond, respectively. GARCH class models were selected as the better models for forecasting than the ARIMA model for daily close price values in global financial market instruments.
建立健康金融未来最简单、最快的方法之一是投资全球市场。然而,由于经济危机的影响,全球市场的价格波动很大。因此,未来的预测和比较引导交易者做出低风险的价格决策。本研究基于时间序列模型来预测全球市场上金融工具的每日收盘价格。预测模型采用两种样本量进行了测试,即2013年1月至2018年1月用于相关性分析的5年收盘价和用于模型构建的3年收盘价。比较了ARIMA和GARCH类模型,即TGARCH、APARCH和EGARCH的预测能力。根据Akaike信息准则(AIC)和贝叶斯信息准则(BIC)的最小值选择最佳拟合模型。最后,基于均方根偏差(RMSE)、平均绝对误差(MAE)和平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE),使用预测误差的测量,在ARIMA和GARCH类模型之间进行了比较。GARCH模型是最适合澳元、饲养牛和咖啡的模型。APARCH模型为玉米和原油提供了最佳的样品外性能。EGARCH和TGARCH分别是黄金和国债的较好拟合模型。对于全球金融市场工具的每日收盘价格值,GARCH类模型被选为比ARIMA模型更好的预测模型。
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引用次数: 1
Different Approaches to Estimation of the Gompertz Distribution under the Progressive Type-II Censoring Scheme 渐进式ii型滤波方案下Gompertz分布估计的不同方法
IF 1.1 Pub Date : 2020-09-07 DOI: 10.1155/2020/3541946
Kyeongjun Lee, J. Seo
This paper provides an estimation method for an unknown parameter by extending weighted least-squared and pivot-based methods to the Gompertz distribution with the shape and scale parameters under the progressive Type-II censoring scheme, which induces a consistent estimator and an unbiased estimator of the scale parameter. In addition, a way to deal with a nuisance parameter is provided in the pivot-based approach. For evaluation and comparison, the Monte Carlo simulations are conducted, and real data are analyzed.
本文在渐进II型截尾方案下,将加权最小二乘法和基于枢轴的方法推广到具有形状和尺度参数的Gompertz分布,给出了一种未知参数的估计方法,该方法导出了尺度参数的一致估计量和无偏估计量。此外,在基于枢轴的方法中提供了一种处理干扰参数的方法。为了进行评估和比较,进行了蒙特卡洛模拟,并对实际数据进行了分析。
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引用次数: 4
Estimation of Generalized Gompertz Distribution Parameters under Ranked-Set Sampling 秩集抽样下广义Gompertz分布参数的估计
IF 1.1 Pub Date : 2020-09-07 DOI: 10.1155/2020/7362657
Mohammed Obeidat, Amjad D. Al-Nasser, A. Al-Omari
This paper studies estimation of the parameters of the generalized Gompertz distribution based on ranked-set sample (RSS). Maximum likelihood (ML) and Bayesian approaches are considered. Approximate confidence intervals for the unknown parameters are constructed using both the normal approximation to the asymptotic distribution of the ML estimators and bootstrapping methods. Bayes estimates and credible intervals of the unknown parameters are obtained using differential evolution Markov chain Monte Carlo and Lindley’s methods. The proposed methods are compared via Monte Carlo simulations studies and an example employing real data. The performance of both ML and Bayes estimates is improved under RSS compared with simple random sample (SRS) regardless of the sample size. Bayes estimates outperform the ML estimates for small samples, while it is the other way around for moderate and large samples.
本文研究了基于排序集样本的广义Gompertz分布的参数估计问题。考虑了最大似然(ML)和贝叶斯方法。使用ML估计量的渐近分布的正态近似和自举方法来构造未知参数的近似置信区间。利用微分进化马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗和Lindley方法得到了未知参数的Bayes估计和可信区间。通过蒙特卡洛模拟研究和一个使用实际数据的例子对所提出的方法进行了比较。与简单随机样本(SRS)相比,无论样本大小如何,在RSS下,ML和Bayes估计的性能都有所提高。Bayes估计在小样本中优于ML估计,而在中等样本和大样本中则相反。
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引用次数: 4
An Extension of the Quadratic Error Function for Learning Imprecise Data in Multivariate Nonlinear Regression 多元非线性回归中学习不精确数据的二次误差函数的推广
IF 1.1 Pub Date : 2020-07-29 DOI: 10.1155/2020/9187503
C. Hounmenou, K. Gneyou, R. G. Glèlè Kakaï
Multivariate noises in the learning process are most of the time supposed to follow a standard multivariate normal distribution. This hypothesis does not often hold in many real-world situations. In this paper, we consider an approach based on multivariate skew-normal distribution. It allows for a multiple continuous variation from normality to nonnormality. We give an extension of the generalized least squares error function in a context of multivariate nonlinear regression to learn imprecise data. The simulation study and application case on real datasets conducted and based on multilayer perceptron neural networks (MLP) with bivariate continuous response and asymmetric revealed a significant gain in precision using the new quadratic error function for these types of data rather than using a classical generalized least squares error function having any covariance matrix.
学习过程中的多变量噪声通常遵循标准的多变量正态分布。这个假设在许多现实世界的情况下并不经常成立。本文考虑了一种基于多元偏正态分布的方法。它允许从正态到非正态的多次连续变化。本文给出了广义最小二乘误差函数在多元非线性回归中的推广,用于学习不精确数据。基于二元连续响应和非对称的多层感知器神经网络(MLP)在实际数据集上的仿真研究和应用实例表明,对于这些类型的数据,使用新的二次误差函数比使用具有任何协方差矩阵的经典广义最小二乘误差函数具有显著的精度提高。
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引用次数: 0
Characterization and Goodness-of-Fit Test of Pareto and Some Related Distributions Based on Near-Order Statistics 基于近阶统计量的Pareto及其相关分布的拟合优性检验
IF 1.1 Pub Date : 2020-07-15 DOI: 10.1155/2020/4262574
M. Akbari
In this paper, a new definition of the number of observations near the th order statistics is developed. Then some characterization results for Pareto and some related distributions are established in terms of mass probability function, first moment of these new counting random variables, and using completeness properties of the sequence of functions . Finally, new goodness-of-fit tests based on these new characterizations for Pareto distribution are presented. And the power values of the proposed tests are compared with the power values of well-known tests such as Kolmogorov–Smirnov and Cramer-von Mises tests by Monte Carlo simulations.
在本文中,提出了一个新的定义,接近于一阶统计量的观测次数。然后根据质量概率函数、这些新的计数随机变量的一阶矩以及函数序列的完备性,建立了Pareto和一些相关分布的一些表征结果。最后,基于帕累托分布的这些新特征,提出了新的拟合优度检验。通过蒙特卡洛模拟,将所提出的测试的功率值与著名测试的功率值相比较,如Kolmogorov“Smirnov”和Cramer von Mises测试。
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引用次数: 2
On the Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Extreme Value Index Based on k-Record Values 基于k记录值的极值指数的极大似然估计
IF 1.1 Pub Date : 2020-06-24 DOI: 10.1155/2020/5497413
Abderrahim Louzaoui, Mohamed El Arrouchi
In this paper, we study the existence and consistency of the maximum likelihood estimator of the extreme value index based on - record values. Following the method used by Drees et al. (2004) and Zhou (2009), we prove that the likelihood equations, in terms of - record values, eventually admit a strongly consistent solution without any restriction on the extreme value index, which is not the case in the aforementioned studies.
本文研究了基于非记录值的极值指标的极大似然估计的存在性和相合性。根据Drees et al.(2004)和Zhou(2009)的方法,我们证明了在不受极值指标限制的情况下,就-记录值而言,似然方程最终存在强一致解,而上述研究并非如此。
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引用次数: 1
期刊
Journal of Probability and Statistics
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