Asian-Pacific Economic Literature最新文献

Governments in developing countries often consider relocation an effective way of fighting poverty. However, few studies have examined the impact of relocation on household livelihoods. This paper examines the impact of the largest relocation in modern Chinese history on migrants' well-being from the dual perspectives of poverty and income inequality reduction. Using survey data from southern Shaanxi and counterfactual analysis, we simulated the incomes of migrants in a non-relocation counterfactual scenario. We found a significant increase in household income and a significant reduction in the incidence, depth, and severity of household poverty after relocation. However, there was an increase of income inequality among relocated households. To promote more balanced development among those resettled, fairness of resource redistribution should first be ensured. Second, timely improvement in support services and facilities for the resettled communities should make full use of information technology to promote equal access to public services and ensure that migrants enjoy equal opportunities for development. Third, communication infrastructure between cadres and the masses should be improved, the information gap between them should be reduced, and there should be regular evaluation of migrants' satisfaction. Fourth, give full play to the role of religious and other charitable organisations in the fight against poverty, strengthen the synergy between different regions and groups, and foster a cooperative relationship between the strong and the weak.

To shed light on the debate over the effect of infrastructure investment on household consumption, this paper uses rural and urban household consumption data from the Chinese Household Income Project (CHIP) to analyse how infrastructure development affects the marginal spending behaviour of households. We find that although infrastructure stock crowds in total consumption, the effects of infrastructure development on sub-categories of consumption differ considerably between the rural sample and the urban sample. Specifically, infrastructure development promotes urban households' spending on infrastructure-based goods, and generates more spillover effects on rural households as indicated by the marginal consumption pattern shifting from necessities to more luxurious goods. Heterogeneity analyses show that the effect of infrastructure development is stronger in households with higher income and with a younger head.

The USA and China have been engaged in a trade war since 2018—an economic tussle that has had repercussions for not only the two countries directly involved but also for their trading partners participating in the industrial global value chains (GVC). To assess the gravity of the dispute, we measure the impacts of the US-China bilateral tariff hikes on the participants, as well on their trading partners linked by global supply chains, whose structure is estimated using the OECD Inter-Country Input–Output Model. Our assessment relies on two metrics: the effective rate of protection (ERP) and total factor productivity (TFP). We calculate ERPs following a methodology that reflects the globally fragmented production linkages. From our assessments, the tariff increases raised the ERPs of the warring countries but lowered those of their trading partners. Moreover, the bilateral tariff hikes significantly raised the input tariffs of many major trading partners through the transmission of GVCs. Consequently, the TFPs of the major trading countries are likely to fall by 0.16 to 0.41 per cent.

This study assesses the performance of the forecasts of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) for 45 countries between 1989 and 2019 with the following results: first, forecast accuracy and bias vary among countries and across variables; second, the Asian currency and global financial crises adversely affected the GDP and inflation forecast accuracy, whereas there were no such impacts on the current account forecast accuracy; third, the ADB's forecasts are broadly unbiased; fourth, inflation forecasts are efficient but the GDP and current account forecasts are not; finally, unbiasedness is broadly robust for the countries' regions. These results suggest that the ADB plays a grounding economic role in providing a reliable economic outlook for policymakers and businesses world wide.

This paper examines the possible role of economic openness in the resurgence of the devastated North Korean economy. The North Korean economy has suffered severely for several decades resulting from military build-ups from the 1970s to the 1990s and also from focusing on nuclear bomb threats in the 2000s to 2010s. But if North Korea denuclearises and instead liberalises its economy, the benefits of economic openness could be expected to be significant. Based upon the economic benefits of openness, we suggest a proposal to unify the two Korean economies. If the two Koreas combine their economies, even maintaining their current political systems, the growth of the unified economy will be faster and stronger. In this case, the most difficult part for North Korea will be how to switch the socialist command economy to a socialist market economy. Although the political and military concerns of a worst-case scenario are immediate barriers to its economic openness, the success story of China's economic growth should be a role model for North Korea.

This paper discusses a factor influencing consumption in China that has not been widely addressed: the retirement age. Many previous studies on the relationship between retirement age and consumption are based on data from developed countries. Because of the many differences between China and the developed economies, this analysis relies on the Lau (2009) overlapping-generations model. This model is more suitable for determining the relationship between consumption and retirement age in China, and for highlighting the positive relationship between consumption and retirement age. The empirical results reveal a causal relationship between retirement age and consumption and indicate that increasing the retirement age can stimulate economic growth. These results are specific to China and include gender differences and the varied impacts on low-income and high-income families.