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External Balance and Financialization: An Interpretation of the Evolution of the Brazilian Economy Since 2000 外部平衡与金融化:对2000年以来巴西经济演变的解读
IF 1.2 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-04-03 DOI: 10.1080/08911916.2023.2230030
Leandro Monteiro, Carmem Feijó
Abstract Brazil experienced a complete economic cycle with an ascending phase in the 2000s, followed by a decline during the following decade. Using the national accounts, the objective of this article is to trace the growth path of the Brazilian economy from the 2000s onwards through a detailed analysis of the financial balance and income flows of the institutional sectors. It will be shown that the economy has two relevant points of inflection: the first was the external shock occasioned by the 2008 global financial crisis, and the second was the change in domestic economic policy after 2015 following an austerity agenda. The article compares the financial balance of the institutional sectors at the two historical moments. It sheds new light on why the Brazilian economy entered the descending phase of the economic cycle and is stagnating and deepening its financialization process.
巴西在21世纪初经历了一个完整的经济周期,即上升阶段,随后在接下来的十年中下降。利用国民账户,本文的目标是通过对机构部门的财务平衡和收入流动的详细分析,追踪2000年代以来巴西经济的增长路径。它将显示,经济有两个相关的拐点:第一个是2008年全球金融危机引发的外部冲击,第二个是2015年紧缩议程后国内经济政策的变化。本文比较了两个历史时刻我国事业部门的财务平衡状况。它揭示了巴西经济进入经济周期下行阶段、停滞不前并深化金融化进程的新原因。
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引用次数: 0
Rentierism, Capitalist Competition and Neoliberalism: Toward a Veblenian Synthesis 食利者主义、资本主义竞争与新自由主义:走向Veblenian综合
IF 1.2 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-04-03 DOI: 10.1080/08911916.2023.2237733
J. Ahumada
Abstract The aim of this article is to analyze theoretically the relationship between rents and capitalist competition. The central hypothesis is that the production of rents is a process endogenous to capitalist competition and expands itself throughout various dimensions of economic life. To this end, the different conceptions of rents (classical, neoclassical and Schumpeterian) will be reviewed, and an institutionalist perspective on rents as income from institutionally-created scarce assets will be presented. To make this point, the case of the TRIPS agreement in the WTO will be analyzed as an example of the relationship between capitalist markets and institutional creation of scarcity from which patent rents emerge. Finally, this view of rents will be used to provide a theoretical analysis of how neoliberalism endogenously deepens current rents and creates new ones.
本文旨在从理论上分析地租与资本主义竞争的关系。核心假设是,租金的生产是资本主义竞争的内生过程,并在经济生活的各个方面扩展自己。为此,将对租金的不同概念(古典主义、新古典主义和熊彼特主义)进行回顾,并提出一种制度主义观点,将租金作为制度创造的稀缺资产的收入。为了说明这一点,世贸组织中的TRIPS协议将作为资本主义市场与专利租金产生的稀缺性制度创造之间关系的一个例子进行分析。最后,这种租金观将被用来提供新自由主义如何内生地加深当前租金并创造新租金的理论分析。
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引用次数: 1
Betting on Black Gold: Oil Speculation and U.S. Inflation (2020–2022) 押注黑黄金:石油投机与美国通胀(2020-2022)
IF 1.2 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-04-03 DOI: 10.1080/08911916.2023.2238565
Carlotta Breman, Servaas Storm
Abstract Sharp increases in systemically important crude oil prices have been a major cause of the recent surge in the inflation rate in the U.S. This paper investigates the extent to which the increase in oil prices can be attributed to excessive speculation in the oil futures market. Our analysis suggests that excessive speculation in the crude oil market has been responsible for 24%–48% of the increase in the WTI crude oil price during October 2020–June 2022. These estimates translate into an oil price increase of around $18-$36 per barrel and an increase in the U.S. PCE inflation rate by circa 0.75–1.5% points during the same period. We complement the analysis with an empirical investigation of the crude oil market, which shows that (speculative) long noncommercial open-interest positions in oil futures have increased considerably relative to short noncommercial positions. We further find that higher futures prices for crude oil “Granger-cause” oil spot prices, the futures prices of corn and soybeans and the fertilizer price. These econometric results show that oil speculators have to be held accountable for not just raising oil prices, but also driving up food commodity prices. We finally discuss measures to clamp down on excessive speculation in oil in order to eliminate its systemically adverse consequences for the U.S. economy.
具有系统重要性的原油价格的急剧上涨是最近美国通货膨胀率飙升的主要原因。本文研究了石油价格上涨在多大程度上可归因于石油期货市场的过度投机。我们的分析表明,在2020年10月至2022年6月期间,原油市场的过度投机导致了24%-48%的WTI原油价格上涨。根据这些预测,油价将在同一时期上涨约18- 36美元/桶,美国个人消费支出通胀率将上涨约0.75-1.5%。我们用对原油市场的实证调查来补充分析,该调查表明,石油期货的(投机性)非商业多头未平仓头寸相对于非商业空头头寸大幅增加。我们进一步发现,原油期货价格的上涨“格兰杰效应”导致原油现货价格、玉米和大豆期货价格以及化肥价格的上涨。这些计量经济学结果表明,石油投机者不仅要为抬高油价负责,还要为推高食品价格负责。我们最后讨论了打击石油投机过度的措施,以消除其对美国经济的系统性不利后果。
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引用次数: 2
Distributive Profiles Associated with Domestic versus International Specialization in Global Value Chains 全球价值链中与国内与国际专业化相关的分配概况
IF 1.2 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-01-24 DOI: 10.1080/08911916.2023.2220634
A. Wirkierman
Abstract The present article sets out trends in functional income distribution implied by countries’ integration in Global Value Chains (GVCs), taking also into account interregional interactions (North-North, South–South and North–South). Through the application of an innovative input-output methodology, it quantifies inter-country differences in functional income distribution by means of a novel indicator to estimate the distributive profile associated with domestic vis-à-vis international specialization. The focus is on trade flows, and the analysis carried out allows to single out the distributive implications of alternative regional integration projects, in view of a more inclusive multilateral trade system.
本文阐述了各国融入全球价值链(GVCs)所隐含的功能性收入分配趋势,同时考虑了区域间的相互作用(南北、南南和南北)。通过应用一种创新的投入产出方法,它通过一种新的指标来估计与国内与-à-vis国际专业化有关的分配情况,量化国家间功能性收入分配的差异。重点是贸易流动,所进行的分析可以根据更具包容性的多边贸易制度,挑出其他区域一体化项目的分配影响。
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引用次数: 0
Foreign Direct Investment in Neoclassical Theory of International Trade: A Conceptual Weak Spot 新古典国际贸易理论中的外国直接投资:一个概念弱点
IF 1.2 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/08911916.2023.2186054
Patrick Kaczmarczyk
Abstract This article analyses the role of foreign direct investment (FDI) in neoclassical theory of trade with a focus on the relocation of production into low wage countries. The conceptual analysis shows that FDI not only constitutes a weak spot in comparative advantage theory, but also that the latter is incompatible with efficiency-seeking FDI—with significant implications for policy. In Ricardian and Heckscher-Ohlin models of trade, FDI is ruled out via the assumption of factor immobility. In models in which factor immobility is relaxed, the closest FDI comes to is a generic reference to capital imports and exports, which affect factor endowments and, therefore, comparative advantage. Due to the assumption that input factors are determined by wage-rental ratios, this leads to the condition that firms operating in advanced economies must produce more labor-intensively, if investing in facilities in low-wage countries. Efficiency and market-seeking FDI, which combines productive, capital-intensive modes of production with cheap labor to exploit unit labor cost differentials, is a theoretical and mathematical impossibility in this framework. This conceptual weakness questions the validity of conventional approaches to development policy, which largely rely on market liberalization and free capital mobility.
摘要本文分析了外国直接投资(FDI)在新古典贸易理论中的作用,重点关注生产向低工资国家的转移。概念分析表明,外国直接投资不仅构成比较优势理论的薄弱环节,而且与追求效率的外国直接投资不相容,这对政策具有重大影响。在李嘉图和Heckscher-Ohlin贸易模型中,通过假设要素不流动,FDI被排除在外。在放松要素不流动的模型中,最接近的外国直接投资是对资本进口和出口的一般性提及,这影响要素禀赋,从而影响比较优势。由于假设投入要素是由工资租金比决定的,这就导致了在发达经济体经营的公司,如果在低工资国家投资设施,就必须生产更多的劳动密集型产品。在这一框架下,效率和市场导向的外国直接投资(FDI)在理论上和数学上都是不可能的,它将生产性、资本密集型的生产方式与廉价劳动力相结合,以利用单位劳动力成本差异。这一概念上的弱点对发展政策的传统做法的有效性提出了质疑,因为传统做法主要依赖于市场自由化和资本自由流动。
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引用次数: 0
Poles Apart? Alternative Welfare Trajectories under Finance-Dominated Capitalism 两极分开?金融主导资本主义下的另类福利轨迹
IF 1.2 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/08911916.2023.2189864
F. Antenucci, Walter Paternesi Meloni, P. Tridico
Abstract By connecting the post-Keynesian view of financialization with Comparative Political Economy, we suggest some elements for an updated interpretation of the existing models of welfare. As a main element of novelty, we consider how high-income countries are reacting to the pressures of finance-dominated capitalism, namely by extending, keeping, or retrenching their welfare systems. The contribution of the article is threefold. First, we elaborate on the nexus between welfare and financialization. Second, we introduce a multidimensional index aimed at assessing the degree of welfare of 32 OECD countries for the period 1990–2015. Third, we compare our index with the socio-economic models identified in the literature and with the patterns of financialization. Two trajectories emerge from our exploration: on the one side, Scandinavian and Continental European countries moved toward relatively higher levels of welfare; on the other side, lower levels of welfare feature Anglo-Saxon, Asian, Mediterranean, and Central and Eastern European countries. Besides such divergence, we find that the process of financialization was more intense in countries with stronger welfare, which likely opted for a compensation strategy. Our work highlights the relevance of policies and institutions in shaping different welfare systems and coping with the challenges of the current phase of capitalism.
摘要通过将后凯恩斯主义的金融化观点与比较政治经济学联系起来,我们提出了对现有福利模型进行更新解释的一些要素。作为新颖性的一个主要因素,我们考虑高收入国家如何应对金融主导的资本主义的压力,即通过扩大、保留或紧缩其福利制度。这篇文章的贡献有三个方面。首先,我们阐述了福利和金融化之间的关系。其次,我们引入了一个多维指数,旨在评估1990-2015年期间32个经合组织国家的福利程度。第三,我们将我们的指数与文献中确定的社会经济模型和金融化模式进行了比较。我们的探索产生了两条轨迹:一方面,斯堪的纳维亚和欧洲大陆国家的福利水平相对较高;另一方面,盎格鲁撒克逊、亚洲、地中海以及中欧和东欧国家的福利水平较低。除了这种分歧之外,我们发现,在福利更强的国家,金融化进程更为激烈,这些国家可能选择了补偿战略。我们的工作强调了政策和机构在塑造不同福利制度和应对当前资本主义阶段挑战方面的相关性。
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引用次数: 0
A Tale of a Rentier Social Contract and Diminishing Economic Rents: Multinationalism and Resource-Seeking Capital in Contemporary Africa 租金社会契约与经济租金递减的故事:当代非洲的多元民族主义与资源寻求资本
IF 1.2 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/08911916.2023.2186057
Sikanyiso Masuku
Abstract The invisible hand of private global enterprises in the political and economic landscape of Africa’s rentier states best exemplifies the extent to which Multinational Corporations (MNCs) now personify the variant/competing strategic resource-seeking interests of two fronts, i.e., (i) the emerging economy MNCs [BRICS nations, with China and Russia in particular] and (ii) the EU (European Union) and North American states. We have also seen from these fronts, a growing prioritization of economic/political hegemonies over mutually-beneficial bilateral relationships that ensure shared economic development and stability (with respect to ideals, such as good governance, human rights, and democracy) in the Global South. Inadvertently, this has emboldened the proliferation of oligarchs and shadow states whose resilience is contingent upon the existence of autocratic infrastructure, inequality, and a shrinking democratic space. In rentier states, such as the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), positive spillovers (in both development and economic terms) have been dwindling—notwithstanding the ubiquity of private global enterprises therein. Using the Rentier State theory and the Agency thesis, the article explores the operations of MNCs in Africa. Through a content analysis of literature on global capital, institutions, and the role of multinationals in resource rich states, the article focuses on the DRC to highlight what we know and do not know on the negative side of globalization. Some of the negative outcomes of the unregulated power of private global enterprises (as discussed in the article) include their involvement in electoral process interferences, authoritarian collaborations, the establishment of oligopolies, shadow states, etc., to the detriment of equitable development (within rentier states), and a salience of inequities within the global natural resource trade.
非洲食利国政治和经济格局中全球私营企业的“看不见的手”最好地体现了跨国公司(MNCs)在多大程度上代表了两条战线的不同/竞争战略资源寻求利益,即(i)新兴经济体跨国公司(金砖国家,特别是中国和俄罗斯)和(ii)欧盟(欧盟)和北美国家。我们还从这些方面看到,经济/政治霸权日益优先于确保全球南方共同经济发展和稳定(在良好治理、人权和民主等理想方面)的互利双边关系。不经意间,这助长了寡头和影子国家的扩散,这些国家的恢复能力取决于专制基础设施、不平等和不断缩小的民主空间的存在。在像刚果民主共和国这样的食利国,积极的溢出效应(在发展和经济方面)一直在减少——尽管那里的全球私营企业无处不在。本文运用食利国理论和代理理论对跨国公司在非洲的经营进行了研究。通过对全球资本、制度和跨国公司在资源丰富国家中的作用的文献进行内容分析,本文将重点放在刚果民主共和国,以突出我们对全球化消极方面的了解和不了解。私营全球企业不受监管的权力(如文中所述)的一些负面结果包括它们参与选举过程干预、威权合作、寡头垄断的建立、影子国家等,损害了公平发展(在食利国内部),以及全球自然资源贸易中的不平等现象的突出。
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引用次数: 0
Myth and Reality in the Great Inflation Debate: Supply Shocks and Wealth Effects in a Multipolar World Economy 大通胀辩论中的神话与现实:多极世界经济中的供给冲击与财富效应
IF 1.2 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.1080/08911916.2023.2191421
Thomas P. Ferguson, Servaas Storm
Abstract This article critically evaluates debates over the causes of U.S. inflation. We first show that claims that the Biden stimulus was the major cause of inflation are mistaken: the key data series—stimulus spending and inflation—move dramatically out of phase. While the first ebbs quickly, the second persistently surges. We then look at alternative explanations for the price rises. We assess four supply-side factors: imports, energy prices, rises in corporate profit margins, and COVID. We argue that discussions of COVID’s impact have thus far only tangentially acknowledged the pandemic’s far-reaching effects on labor markets. We conclude that while all four factors played roles in bringing on and sustaining inflation, they cannot explain all of it. There is an aggregate demand problem. But the surprise surge in demand did not arise from government spending. It came from the unprecedented gains in household wealth, particularly for the richest 10% of households, which we show powered the recovery of aggregate US consumption expenditure, especially from July 2021. The final cause of the inflationary surge in the U.S., therefore, was in large measure the unequal (wealth) effects of ultra-loose monetary policy during 2020–2021. This conclusion is important because supply-side (and thus potentially inflationary) pressures are unlikely to subside soon. Going forward, COVID, war, climate change, and the drift to a belligerently multipolar world system are all likely to keep straining global supply chains. Our conclusion outlines how policy has to change to deal with a world of steady, but irregular supply shocks, including Covid’s continuing impact on labor markets. By their nature, such shocks create problems that monetary policy can cope with only at an enormous cost; they require targeted solutions. But when supply plummets or becomes more variable, fiscal policy also has to adapt: existing explorations of ways to steady demand over the business cycle have to embrace much bolder macroeconomic measures to control over-spending when supply is temporarily constrained.
本文批判性地评价了关于美国通货膨胀原因的争论。我们首先表明,认为拜登刺激方案是通胀主要原因的说法是错误的:关键数据系列——刺激支出和通胀——明显不同步。前者迅速消退,后者则持续高涨。然后,我们看看价格上涨的其他解释。我们评估了四个供给侧因素:进口、能源价格、企业利润率上升和COVID。我们认为,到目前为止,关于COVID影响的讨论只是间接地认识到大流行对劳动力市场的深远影响。我们的结论是,虽然这四个因素都在引发和维持通胀方面发挥了作用,但它们无法解释所有的通胀。存在总需求问题。但需求的意外激增并非来自政府支出。它来自家庭财富的前所未有的增长,特别是对最富有的10%的家庭来说,我们认为这推动了美国总消费支出的复苏,尤其是从2021年7月开始。因此,美国通胀飙升的最终原因在很大程度上是2020-2021年期间超宽松货币政策的不平等(财富)效应。这个结论很重要,因为供给侧(以及潜在的通胀)压力不太可能很快消退。展望未来,新冠疫情、战争、气候变化以及向好战的多极世界体系的转变,都可能继续给全球供应链带来压力。我们的结论概述了政策必须如何改变,以应对一个稳定但不规律的供应冲击的世界,包括Covid对劳动力市场的持续影响。就其本质而言,此类冲击产生的问题,货币政策只有付出巨大代价才能应对;它们需要有针对性的解决方案。但是,当供给暴跌或变得更加多变时,财政政策也必须做出调整:现有的在商业周期中稳定需求的探索,必须采用更大胆的宏观经济措施,在供给暂时受到限制时控制过度支出。
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引用次数: 8
Global Financial Governance and Progressive Feminist Agendas 全球金融治理和进步女权主义议程
IF 1.2 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-10-02 DOI: 10.1080/08911916.2022.2139715
Ilene Grabel
Abstract Feminists and other progressives have long argued that global macroeconomic governance is deeply deficient. The deficiencies have been revealed and amplified by the COVID-19 crisis. The need to radically reconstruct the global economic governance architecture is therefore pressing. Albert Hirschman’s conception of “possibilism” is particularly relevant for navigating these challenges. In the spirit of Hirschmanian possibilism, I make a case for what I refer to as “enabling global financial governance.” I use this term to refer to reforms of global financial governance that could provide a supporting environment for feminist and other progressive plans for sustainability and social justice. I advance the provocative claim that feminists and other social justice advocates should embrace what I term “permissive multilateralisms” rather than “harmonized multilateralism.” I also highlight a number of directions for global financial governance reform that could provide policy space for progressive initiatives, including those advanced by feminists. I offer this paper as a small way of honoring my friend, Eugenia Correa, whose intellectual legacy and commitment to engaged scholarship has influenced me profoundly.
摘要女权主义者和其他进步人士长期以来一直认为,全球宏观经济治理严重不足。新冠肺炎危机暴露并放大了这些缺陷。因此,迫切需要从根本上重建全球经济治理架构。阿尔伯特·赫希曼的“可能性”概念与应对这些挑战特别相关。本着赫希曼可能性论的精神,我提出了我所说的“扶持全球金融治理”的理由。我用这个词来指代全球金融治理改革,它可以为女权主义和其他进步的可持续性和社会正义计划提供支持环境。我提出了一个挑衅性的主张,即女权主义者和其他社会正义倡导者应该接受我所说的“宽容的多边主义”,而不是“协调的多边主义”。我还强调了全球金融治理改革的一些方向,这些方向可以为进步举措提供政策空间,包括女权主义者提出的举措。我发表这篇论文是为了向我的朋友尤金妮娅·科雷亚致敬,她的智慧遗产和对敬业学术的承诺对我产生了深远的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Global Financial Markets, Predominance of Monetary Policy and the Deepening of Financialization 全球金融市场、货币政策主导与金融化深化
IF 1.2 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-10-02 DOI: 10.1080/08911916.2022.2139722
G. Vidal
Abstract This article analyzes the evolution of financialization at a global level and the corporate and public policies employed over the past decades that have guided its advance. More specifically, this article focuses on the evolution of productive investment in the era of financialization, and in recent years in particular. As will be argued, the predominance of monetary policy as the public policy of choice in recent decades has greatly reduced the capacity of the State to lead economies on a path of development.
本文分析了金融化在全球范围内的演变,以及过去几十年来引导其发展的企业和公共政策。更具体地说,本文关注的是金融化时代生产性投资的演变,特别是近年来。正如将要讨论的那样,近几十年来货币政策作为公共政策的选择所占的主导地位大大削弱了国家在发展道路上领导经济的能力。
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引用次数: 2
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INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF POLITICAL ECONOMY
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