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Ireland’s Multinationals-Dominated Economy in the Pandemic: Did Big Tech and Big Pharma Save the Day? 疫情中爱尔兰跨国公司主导的经济:大型科技公司和大型制药公司拯救了这一天吗?
IF 1.2 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/08911916.2022.2046347
P. Polyak
Abstract Similar to the Eurozone crisis, Ireland engineered a more successful bounce back from the COVID-19 shock than crisis-hit peers. This article argues that the Irish path is less of a product of a generalizable export-led growth strategy, but, rather, can be explained by a set of idiosyncratic features. Using a wide array of macroeconomic indicators, the analysis assesses the opportunities and risks associated with Ireland's distinct path. It shows how strong ties to the United States, and emergence as the European hub for the world’s fastest growing firms sets Ireland apart from European peers. The US is a reliable “spender of last resort,” countercyclically spending and borrowing, boosting growth prospects of trading partners. Irish sectoral specialization in pharmaceutical manufacturing and digital services was also a boon in this crisis. The pandemic created opportunities for health-related industries; reliance on digital technologies helped digital firms. The article also finds, however, that banking on tech and pharma giants has significant limitations. First, multinationals’ accounting tricks artificially inflate economic statistics, and these two sectors are most affected. Second, to the extent that there is job-sustaining activity, it is not straightforward how the success of these sectors is transmitted to the rest of the economy. In the aftermath of the Eurozone crisis, the hospitality industry played a significant role as a “‘transmission belt,” receiving spillovers from the high value-added export sector. Since lockdowns hit hospitality the most, the social insurance function of fiscal policy is of paramount importance to ensure a more broad-based recovery.
与欧元区危机类似,爱尔兰比其他遭受危机打击的国家更成功地从新冠疫情冲击中复苏。本文认为,爱尔兰的发展道路与其说是一种通用的出口导向型增长战略的产物,倒不如说,它可以用一系列特殊特征来解释。该分析使用一系列宏观经济指标,评估了与爱尔兰独特道路相关的机遇和风险。这表明爱尔兰与美国的紧密联系,以及作为世界上增长最快的公司的欧洲中心的崛起,使爱尔兰与欧洲同行区别开来。美国是一个可靠的“最后支出者”,通过反周期的支出和借贷,提振了贸易伙伴的增长前景。爱尔兰在医药制造和数字服务方面的行业专业化也在这场危机中受益匪浅。大流行为卫生相关行业创造了机会;对数字技术的依赖帮助了数字公司。然而,这篇文章还发现,寄望于科技和制药巨头有很大的局限性。首先,跨国公司的会计手段人为夸大了经济统计数据,而这两个部门受到的影响最大。其次,就存在维持就业的活动而言,这些行业的成功如何传导到经济的其他领域并不简单。在欧元区危机之后,酒店业作为“传送带”发挥了重要作用,接受了高附加值出口部门的溢出效应。由于封锁对酒店业的打击最大,财政政策的社会保险功能对于确保更广泛的复苏至关重要。
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引用次数: 2
COVID-19 Challenges to the European Economic and Monetary Union: Institutional Responses, Growth Strategies, and Future Prospects in a Changing Macroeconomic Environment—Introduction 新冠肺炎对欧洲经济和货币联盟的挑战:在不断变化的宏观经济环境中的体制应对、增长战略和未来前景
IF 1.2 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/08911916.2022.2048552
G. De Angelis
This special issue aims to answer three questions: How is European economic governance adapting to the COVID-19 crisis? How are member states’ economic policies adjusting to the current crisis and adapting to the European response? How is the COVID-19 health and economic crisis expected to impact their growth policies and reform trajectories? Seeking to answer these questions, the special issue aims to assess the impact of COVID-19 on the core elements of the political economy of adaptation and adjustment in the eurozone. One decade after the eurozone crisis, the COVID-19 induced crisis has revamped the reform process in the European Economic and Monetary Union, prompting a new wave of policy and institutional changes in the Economic and Monetary Union of the European Union (EMU). The perhaps most significant change has consisted in the common effort to fend off the COVID19-induced collective, systemic risks in a more symmetric and mutually supportive way than had happened previously. The policy response rested not only on several tools that were already part of the toolboxes that different European institutions, primarily the Commission and the European Central Bank (ECB), had at their disposal but also through the Member States’ coordinated effort to relaunch investment levels through common bonds emissions (an instrument that had been up to then subject to harsh and unresolved controversies) while momentarily steering away from debt levels reduction. As Sebastian Dullien effectively points out in his contribution, old and new eurozone reforms have all contributed to the COVID-19 crisis having thus far a different, and more equitable, outcome than the 2009 eurozone crisis. This is so, to the extent that the instituted facility (The Next-generation EU) has targeted countries in a proportion roughly corresponding to the estimated negative impact of the crisis (Watzka and Watt 2020). Additionally, the ECB’s Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme admits for an equally “flexible” application of the capital key. The COVID-19-induced reforms raise two kinds of questions. The first refers to their longterm consequences for the EMU institutional architecture. The second refers to the Member States’ macroeconomic trajectories against the background of the crisis’ long-term consequences
本期特刊旨在回答三个问题:欧洲经济治理如何适应新冠肺炎危机?成员国的经济政策如何适应当前的危机并适应欧洲的反应?新冠肺炎健康和经济危机预计将如何影响其增长政策和改革轨迹?为了回答这些问题,特刊旨在评估新冠肺炎对欧元区适应和调整政治经济核心要素的影响。欧元区危机十年后,新冠肺炎引发的危机改变了欧洲经济和货币联盟的改革进程,促使欧洲联盟经济和货币同盟(EMU)出现新一波政策和体制变革。可能最重要的变化是共同努力,以比以前更对称、更相互支持的方式抵御新冠肺炎19引发的集体系统性风险。政策回应不仅取决于几个工具,这些工具已经是不同欧洲机构(主要是欧盟委员会和欧洲央行)工具箱的一部分,但也通过成员国的协调努力,通过共同债券排放(这一工具当时一直受到严厉和未解决的争议)重新启动投资水平,同时暂时放弃降低债务水平。正如Sebastian Dullien在其贡献中有效指出的那样,新旧欧元区改革都促成了新冠肺炎危机,迄今为止,这场危机的结果与2009年欧元区危机不同,也更公平。事实如此,在某种程度上,建立的机制(下一代欧盟)针对的国家比例大致相当于危机的估计负面影响(Watzka和Watt 2020)。此外,欧洲央行的流行病紧急购买计划也承认资本金的应用同样“灵活”。新冠疫情引发的改革提出了两类问题。第一个问题是它们对欧洲货币联盟体制结构的长期影响。第二个是指成员国在危机长期后果背景下的宏观经济轨迹
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引用次数: 0
Ten Years On, Two Crises Later: Evaluating EMU Institutional Reforms Since 2010 十年后两次危机:评估2010年以来欧洲货币联盟的体制改革
IF 1.2 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/08911916.2022.2046311
Sebastian Dullien
Abstract The article systematically reviews EMU governance reforms implemented, policy instruments introduced and further institutional reforms currently under discussion with a view of how far they have addressed the institutional shortcomings of the euro-area architecture, which have led to the euro crisis of 2010ff. It further explores how far these reforms have helped to prevent a replay of that crisis when the COVID-19 pandemic hit the euro area. To this end, the article first reviews the academic debate about the causes of the euro crisis that started with the Greek sovereign debt crisis in 2010. In a second step, it evaluates the reforms implemented since the onset of the euro crisis and during the COVID-19 crisis with regard in how far these reforms have addressed or could address the causes of the crisis and gives an outlook on potential forthcoming problems.
本文系统地回顾了欧洲货币联盟实施的治理改革、引入的政策工具和目前正在讨论的进一步制度改革,并着眼于它们在多大程度上解决了欧元区架构的制度缺陷,这些缺陷导致了2010年的欧元危机。它进一步探讨了这些改革在多大程度上帮助防止了2019冠状病毒病大流行袭击欧元区时那场危机的重演。为此,本文首先回顾了始于2010年希腊主权债务危机的关于欧元危机成因的学术争论。第二步,评估自欧元危机爆发以来和2019冠状病毒病危机期间实施的改革,评估这些改革在多大程度上解决了或能够解决危机的根源,并对可能出现的问题进行了展望。
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引用次数: 2
A New Role for the European Stability Mechanism in Post-COVID-19 EMU? Explaining the Failure of the Pandemic Crisis Support and Assessing Ways Forward 欧洲稳定机制在新冠疫情后的新作用 EMU?解释流行病危机支持的失败并评估前进的道路
IF 1.2 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/08911916.2022.2048551
G. De Angelis
Abstract Since the establishment of the Pandemic Crisis Support, it has been hypothesized that the European Stability Mechanism might play a new role in stabilizing investments in the European Economic and Monetary Union through a targeted support for the financing of European public goods. The article inquires into the changes in the European Stability Mechanism’s institutional design that could make this possible. It starts by analyzing its lending policy, its accountability structure, and the structure of incentives that underlie negotiations at the Board of Governors. The article then explains the failure of the Pandemic Crisis Support against the background of a neo-institutionalist analysis of the two-level games that develop at intergovernmental fora, and does so through an investigation of the 2020 negotiations that led to the institution of the Pandemic Crisis Support, first, and the The Next Generation EU, later on. Finally, it illustrates which alterations in the institutional design of the European Stability Mechanism could represent a different, and more favorable, structure of incentives for lenders and borrowers.
摘要自流行病危机支持组织成立以来,人们一直认为,欧洲稳定机制可能通过有针对性地支持欧洲公共产品的融资,在稳定欧洲经济和货币联盟的投资方面发挥新的作用。本文探讨了欧洲稳定机制制度设计的变化,这些变化可能使这一点成为可能。它首先分析了其贷款政策、问责制结构和理事会谈判的激励结构。然后,文章在对政府间论坛上发展的两级博弈进行新制度主义分析的背景下,解释了流行病危机支持的失败,并通过对2020年谈判的调查来解释这一点,该谈判首先导致了流行病危机支持的成立,随后又导致了下一代欧盟的成立,它说明了欧洲稳定机制制度设计的哪些变化可能代表对贷款人和借款人的不同、更有利的激励结构。
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引用次数: 1
Editor’s Note: Alain Parguez in Memoriam (1940–2022) 编者按:阿兰·帕格兹纪念(1940-2022)
IF 1.2 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/08911916.2022.2068229
M. Seccareccia
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引用次数: 0
Varieties of Capitalism, Growth Regimes, and Structural Change in Eurozone Core and Peripheral Countries: Germany as a Role Model for Portugal? 欧元区核心和外围国家的资本主义、增长机制和结构变化:德国是葡萄牙的榜样?
IF 1.2 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-10-02 DOI: 10.1080/08911916.2021.2001249
Marta Vaz Silva, João Carlos Lopes
Abstract This article aims at analyzing the structural changes that occurred in the Portuguese economy after the 2010/2013 sovereign debt crisis, compared with what occurred in Germany and using the current debate surrounding the new reform of the Eurozone as a backdrop. We thus intend to find out whether a peripheral southern economy like Portugal and the Eurozone’s core economy (Germany) have become closer and, if so, what that means in terms of the sustainability of the Eurozone as a set of different economies sharing the same currency. The study is framed in an institutional political economy approach (Varieties of Capitalism) and a macroeconomic post-Keynesian perspective (demand-led growth regimes), as well as a structural analysis of economic complexity and product specialization of these contrasting economies.
本文旨在分析葡萄牙经济在2010/2013年主权债务危机后发生的结构性变化,与德国发生的变化进行比较,并以当前围绕欧元区新改革的辩论为背景。因此,我们打算找出像葡萄牙这样的外围南部经济体和欧元区的核心经济体(德国)是否已经变得更加紧密,如果是这样,这对欧元区作为一组使用同一种货币的不同经济体的可持续性意味着什么。该研究以制度政治经济学方法(资本主义的多样性)和宏观经济后凯恩斯主义观点(需求主导的增长制度)为框架,以及对这些对比鲜明的经济体的经济复杂性和产品专业化的结构分析。
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引用次数: 0
The Indian Banking System, Financial Fragility, and Deregulation 印度银行体系、金融脆弱性和放松管制
IF 1.2 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-10-02 DOI: 10.1080/08911916.2021.2001245
Alicia Girón, Jacobo Silva
Abstract Indian banking has undergone structural changes from financial reform and the process of deregulation during the 1990s. Added to this is a new element, the COVID-19 pandemic, and its effects on the banking system. The categories of concentration and centralization of capital and the increasing instability of banking institutions will enable an assessment of banking fragility as well as the impact and repercussions of the pandemic. The economic fragility of India's banking system has been a constant over the past few decades. The objective of this article is to analyze the profitability of the banking system, the banks’ non-performing loans and the government's strategy to prevent a banking crisis.
20世纪90年代,印度银行业经历了金融改革和放松管制的结构性变化。此外,还有一个新因素,即COVID-19大流行及其对银行体系的影响。资本集中和集中的类别以及银行机构日益不稳定的情况,将有助于评估银行业的脆弱性以及大流行病的影响和后果。过去几十年来,印度银行体系的经济脆弱性一直存在。本文的目的是分析银行系统的盈利能力,银行的不良贷款和政府的战略,以防止银行危机。
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引用次数: 0
Assessing the Macroeconomic Effects of COVID-19 in an Empirical SFC Model for Denmark 基于丹麦实证SFC模型的新冠肺炎宏观经济影响评估
IF 1.2 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-10-02 DOI: 10.1080/08911916.2021.2001194
M. Byrialsen, H. Raza
Abstract The COVID-19 pandemic has tossed the world into a state of uncertainty, not only from a health point of view but also from an economic perspective. Most countries have adopted a strategy of strict lockdowns, leading to a fall in production and a rise in unemployment. From an economic perspective, this lockdown has erupted in supply-and-demand shocks in the economy. In order to investigate the potential impact of these shocks, we develop a post-Keynesian empirical Stock-Flow Consistent (SFC) model for Denmark. The impact of these shocks is analyzed in three different scenarios. Overall, our simulation results indicate that temporary (1 year) shocks in the economy will lead to a fall in output but a quick recovery, whereas persistent shocks can lead to a full-blown economic crisis. We find that the impact of these shocks can be lowered by public intervention in the form of fiscal stimulus, which can reduce the impact of these shocks and also improve the speed of economic recovery. We also address the economic consequences of financing this stimulus, and whether such a policy response is feasible. Our main conclusion is that fiscal stimulus seems to be an effective and affordable policy option available to Denmark.
COVID-19大流行不仅从健康角度来看,而且从经济角度来看,都使世界陷入不确定状态。大多数国家采取了严格的封锁战略,导致生产下降和失业率上升。从经济角度看,这次封锁在经济中引发了供需冲击。为了研究这些冲击的潜在影响,我们为丹麦开发了一个后凯恩斯主义的实证股票流动一致性(SFC)模型。在三种不同的情况下分析了这些冲击的影响。总体而言,我们的模拟结果表明,经济中的暂时(1年)冲击将导致产出下降,但会迅速复苏,而持续的冲击可能导致全面的经济危机。我们发现,通过财政刺激形式的公共干预可以降低这些冲击的影响,这可以减少这些冲击的影响,也可以提高经济复苏的速度。我们还讨论了为这一刺激计划提供资金的经济后果,以及这种政策反应是否可行。我们的主要结论是,财政刺激似乎是丹麦可用的有效且负担得起的政策选择。
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引用次数: 1
An Assessment of Samuelson’s Ricardo-Sraffa Trade Model 对萨缪尔森里卡多-斯拉法贸易模型的评价
IF 1.2 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-10-02 DOI: 10.1080/08911916.2021.2001193
G. Brondino, Ariel Dvoskin
Abstract This article assesses Samuelson’s attempt to introduce Sraffa’s framework of “production of commodities by means of commodities” to the neoclassical-Ricardo trade model. We slightly modify Samuelson’s model to consider, on the one hand, more commodities than countries and, on the other hand, a positive rate of interest and full international (finance) capital mobility. In the first case, comparative advantage is unable to predict the direction of trade. In the second case, the principle does not warrant the existence of trade. In conclusion, a closer look at the neoclassical-Ricardian trade model through the lenses of Sraffa casts more doubts than certainties of the comparative advantage theory.
摘要本文对萨缪尔森试图将斯拉法的“通过商品进行商品生产”框架引入新古典主义李嘉图贸易模型进行了评价。我们稍微修改了萨缪尔森的模型,一方面考虑商品多于国家,另一方面考虑正利率和充分的国际(金融)资本流动。在第一种情况下,比较优势不能预测贸易的方向。在第二种情况下,该原则不能证明贸易的存在。总之,通过斯拉法的镜头仔细观察新古典-李嘉图贸易模型,对比较优势理论的怀疑多于肯定。
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引用次数: 2
A Friendly Critique of Minsky's Financial Instability Hypothesis 对明斯基金融不稳定假说的友好批判
IF 1.2 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-10-02 DOI: 10.1080/08911916.2021.2001248
Wesley C. Marshall
Abstract This article critiques Minsky's Financial Instability Hypothesis, arguing that fraud is a missing element in his theory and the central element in the speculative bubbles that caused “it” to happen twice in the last century in the United States.
摘要本文对明斯基的金融不稳定假说进行了批判,认为欺诈是他的理论中缺失的一个因素,也是导致上个世纪美国两次发生“金融不稳定假说”的投机泡沫的核心因素。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF POLITICAL ECONOMY
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