{"title":"Economic and financial analysis: Impact of the pandemic on the food sector","authors":"Bianca Pintor Martin, Nilton Cezar Carraro","doi":"10.24294/fsj.v6i1.2302","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24294/fsj.v6i1.2302","url":null,"abstract":"<jats:p>N/A</jats:p>","PeriodicalId":447992,"journal":{"name":"Financial Statistical Journal","volume":"76 1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132842976","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This study aims to investigate the effect of continent and initial GDP per capita level of a country on the relationship between insurance activities and economic growth. This study considers panel data consists of 123 countries from 1967 to 2014. Both static panel model and dynamic panel model are used to evaluate the effect of both continent and initial GDP per capita level of a country to the economic growth. The findings show significant causal relationship between insurance development and economic growth. However, the relationship is varied in different countries due to different initial income levels and locations. The effect of insurance development on economic growth of a country is indirect because it depends on the performance of the investment of insurers. Therefore, policymakers should consider their own country’s special characteristics when formulating a policy. Policymakers should clearly understand the nature of their insurance sector such as interconnectedness between financial sector and insurance sector, whether to promote insurance sector to grow their economy. By understanding the effect of continent and the initial GDP per capita level, policymakers could formulate and implement more effective policies on their country’s insurance sector to ensure the prosperity of the country’s economic growth.
{"title":"Insurance Development and Economic Growth","authors":"H. Lee, Zhen Yong, Qiao-Ming Lim","doi":"10.24294/fsj.v0i0.1012","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24294/fsj.v0i0.1012","url":null,"abstract":"This study aims to investigate the effect of continent and initial GDP per capita level of a country on the relationship between insurance activities and economic growth. This study considers panel data consists of 123 countries from 1967 to 2014. Both static panel model and dynamic panel model are used to evaluate the effect of both continent and initial GDP per capita level of a country to the economic growth. The findings show significant causal relationship between insurance development and economic growth. However, the relationship is varied in different countries due to different initial income levels and locations. The effect of insurance development on economic growth of a country is indirect because it depends on the performance of the investment of insurers. Therefore, policymakers should consider their own country’s special characteristics when formulating a policy. Policymakers should clearly understand the nature of their insurance sector such as interconnectedness between financial sector and insurance sector, whether to promote insurance sector to grow their economy. By understanding the effect of continent and the initial GDP per capita level, policymakers could formulate and implement more effective policies on their country’s insurance sector to ensure the prosperity of the country’s economic growth.","PeriodicalId":447992,"journal":{"name":"Financial Statistical Journal","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-02-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114193932","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In the process of economic development, influenced by many factors, this paper establishes a regression model between capital stock and financial development under the influence of endogenous growth theory to analyze the change of capital stock in the process of economic growth. It is found that financial development plays a greater role in the capital stock, and the role played by financial markets is weaker than that of financial intermediaries
{"title":"Research on the Relationship between Financial Development, Capital Stock and Economic Development","authors":"Xu Jie","doi":"10.24294/FSJ.V1I4.1074","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24294/FSJ.V1I4.1074","url":null,"abstract":"In the process of economic development, influenced by many factors, this paper establishes a regression model between capital stock and financial development under the influence of endogenous growth theory to analyze the change of capital stock in the process of economic growth. It is found that financial development plays a greater role in the capital stock, and the role played by financial markets is weaker than that of financial intermediaries","PeriodicalId":447992,"journal":{"name":"Financial Statistical Journal","volume":"79 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-01-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133913568","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper presents a bootstrap resampling scheme to build pre-diction intervals for future values in fractionally autoregressive movingaverage (ARFIMA) models. Standard techniques to calculate forecastintervals rely on the assumption of normality of the data and do nottake into account the uncertainty associated with parameter estima-tion. Bootstrap procedures, as nonparametric methods, can overcomethese diculties. In this paper, we test two bootstrap prediction in-tervals based on the nonparametric bootstrap in the residuals of theARFIMA model. In this paper, two bootstrap prediction intervals areproposed based on the nonparametric bootstrap in the residuals ofthe ARFIMA model. The rst one is the well known percentile boot-strap, (Thombs and Schucany, 1990; Pascual et al., 2004), never usedfor ARFIMA models to the knowlegde of the authors. For the secondapproach, the intervals are calculated using the quantiles of the empir-ical distribution of the bootstrap prediction errors (Masarotto, 1990;Bisaglia e Grigoletto, 2001). The intervals are compared, througha Monte Carlo experiment, to the asymptotic interval, under Gaus-sian and non-Gaussian error distributions. The results show that thebootstrap intervals present coverage rates closer to the nominal levelassumed, when compared to the asymptotic standard method. An ap-plication to real data of temperature in New York city is also presentedto illustrate the procedures.
本文提出了一种自举重采样方案，用于建立分数自回归移动平均(ARFIMA)模型中未来值的预测区间。计算预测区间的标准技术依赖于对数据正态性的假设，而不考虑与参数估计相关的不确定性。作为非参数方法的自举过程可以克服这些困难。本文对arfima模型残差中基于非参数自举的两个自举预测区间进行了检验。本文基于ARFIMA模型残差中的非参数自举，提出了两个自举预测区间。第一个是众所周知的百分位靴带(Thombs and Schucany, 1990;Pascual et al.， 2004)，据作者所知从未使用过ARFIMA模型。对于第二种方法，使用自举预测误差的经验分布的分位数来计算区间(Masarotto, 1990;Bisaglia e Grigoletto, 2001)。通过蒙特卡罗实验，将区间与高斯和非高斯误差分布下的渐近区间进行了比较。结果表明，与渐近标准方法相比，自举区间呈现的覆盖率更接近于假设的名义水平。最后以纽约市的实际温度数据为例说明了该方法。
{"title":"Prediction intervals in the ARFIMA model using bootstrap G","authors":"G. Franco, Gustavo C. Lana, V. Reisen","doi":"10.24294/FSJ.V1I3.687","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24294/FSJ.V1I3.687","url":null,"abstract":"This paper presents a bootstrap resampling scheme to build pre-diction intervals for future values in fractionally autoregressive movingaverage (ARFIMA) models. Standard techniques to calculate forecastintervals rely on the assumption of normality of the data and do nottake into account the uncertainty associated with parameter estima-tion. Bootstrap procedures, as nonparametric methods, can overcomethese diculties. In this paper, we test two bootstrap prediction in-tervals based on the nonparametric bootstrap in the residuals of theARFIMA model. In this paper, two bootstrap prediction intervals areproposed based on the nonparametric bootstrap in the residuals ofthe ARFIMA model. The rst one is the well known percentile boot-strap, (Thombs and Schucany, 1990; Pascual et al., 2004), never usedfor ARFIMA models to the knowlegde of the authors. For the secondapproach, the intervals are calculated using the quantiles of the empir-ical distribution of the bootstrap prediction errors (Masarotto, 1990;Bisaglia e Grigoletto, 2001). The intervals are compared, througha Monte Carlo experiment, to the asymptotic interval, under Gaus-sian and non-Gaussian error distributions. The results show that thebootstrap intervals present coverage rates closer to the nominal levelassumed, when compared to the asymptotic standard method. An ap-plication to real data of temperature in New York city is also presentedto illustrate the procedures.","PeriodicalId":447992,"journal":{"name":"Financial Statistical Journal","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-09-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130206889","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This study examines the relative effects of alternative import policy reform features and value added tax on import tax revenues in Ghana. To achieve this objective, the study first estimates the effect of alternative import policy features and VAT on import tax changes. The estimated coefficients are then applied to the observed values of each respective import policy feature and VAT to obtain the contribution of each policy feature to change in import tax revenue. The study concludes that Ghana has made some revenue gains by reducing the average official duty rate and imposing VAT rate on imports, and that revenue gains have outstripped revenue losses from the reforms. It is subsequently suggested that the government should maintain the current strategy of replacing tariffs with a type of consumption tax.
{"title":"The relative effect of trade and tax reformson import tax revenues in Ghana","authors":"W. Brafu-Insaidoo, C. Obeng, E. Ewusie","doi":"10.24294/FSJ.V0I0.943","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24294/FSJ.V0I0.943","url":null,"abstract":"This study examines the relative effects of alternative import policy reform features and value added tax on import tax revenues in Ghana. To achieve this objective, the study first estimates the effect of alternative import policy features and VAT on import tax changes. The estimated coefficients are then applied to the observed values of each respective import policy feature and VAT to obtain the contribution of each policy feature to change in import tax revenue. The study concludes that Ghana has made some revenue gains by reducing the average official duty rate and imposing VAT rate on imports, and that revenue gains have outstripped revenue losses from the reforms. It is subsequently suggested that the government should maintain the current strategy of replacing tariffs with a type of consumption tax. ","PeriodicalId":447992,"journal":{"name":"Financial Statistical Journal","volume":"66 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-09-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126797374","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In the fields of Management and Economics, there are many studies that have made use of the degree of concentration of a market or industry, especially when dealing with subjects such as industrial concentration. However, these indexes do not adequately present the level of significance. This problem is overcome by the proposed KSG indicator based on the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and whose interpretation of significance is given by Goodman. Hence the name: KSG. The proposed model uses non-parametric techniques to establish the dimension of concentration and defines the level of significance of the value found. This is a quantitative study using parametric statistics (polynomial regression) on data generated through simulation. In each data simulation, for the given value of n companies, the share of Company 1 is made to vary, with the other shares being maintained unchanged. For each simulation, data related to values of "Share of Company 1" were extracted and corresponding indexes: KSG, CR4, CR8 and HHI. The results show that the indicator proposed in this study is fully justified.
{"title":"KSG: indicator of economic concentration","authors":"Manuel Meireles","doi":"10.24294/fsj.v1i4.829","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24294/fsj.v1i4.829","url":null,"abstract":"In the fields of Management and Economics, there are many studies that have made use of the degree of concentration of a market or industry, especially when dealing with subjects such as industrial concentration. However, these indexes do not adequately present the level of significance. This problem is overcome by the proposed KSG indicator based on the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and whose interpretation of significance is given by Goodman. Hence the name: KSG. The proposed model uses non-parametric techniques to establish the dimension of concentration and defines the level of significance of the value found. This is a quantitative study using parametric statistics (polynomial regression) on data generated through simulation. In each data simulation, for the given value of n companies, the share of Company 1 is made to vary, with the other shares being maintained unchanged. For each simulation, data related to values of \"Share of Company 1\" were extracted and corresponding indexes: KSG, CR4, CR8 and HHI. The results show that the indicator proposed in this study is fully justified.","PeriodicalId":447992,"journal":{"name":"Financial Statistical Journal","volume":"43 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-09-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132581548","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
T. Ermolieva, E. Boere, A. Biewald, P. Havlík, A. Mosnier, D. Leclère, H. Valin, S. Frank, M. Obersteiner, Y. Ermoliev
Stochastic agro-economic model GLOBIOM is used to demonstrate how best to design and evaluate the CAP’s financial and structural measures, both individually and jointly, in the face of inherent uncertainty and risk. The model accounts for plausible shocks simultaneously and derives measures that are robust against all shock scenarios; it can thus help avoid the irreversibility and sunk costs that occur in unexpected scenarios.To allow adequate agricultural production, we show that the distribution of CAP funds needs to account for exposure to risks, security targets, and the synergies between policy measures, including production, trade, storage, and irrigation technologies.
{"title":"Addressing climate change adaptation with a stochastic integrated assessment model: Analysis of common agricultural policy measures","authors":"T. Ermolieva, E. Boere, A. Biewald, P. Havlík, A. Mosnier, D. Leclère, H. Valin, S. Frank, M. Obersteiner, Y. Ermoliev","doi":"10.24294/FSJ.V1I2.913","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24294/FSJ.V1I2.913","url":null,"abstract":"Stochastic agro-economic model GLOBIOM is used to demonstrate how best to design and evaluate the CAP’s financial and structural measures, both individually and jointly, in the face of inherent uncertainty and risk. The model accounts for plausible shocks simultaneously and derives measures that are robust against all shock scenarios; it can thus help avoid the irreversibility and sunk costs that occur in unexpected scenarios.To allow adequate agricultural production, we show that the distribution of CAP funds needs to account for exposure to risks, security targets, and the synergies between policy measures, including production, trade, storage, and irrigation technologies. ","PeriodicalId":447992,"journal":{"name":"Financial Statistical Journal","volume":"3 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-09-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127293116","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The study attempts to explore the relationship between riskgovernance structureand firm performance. In perhaps the first of its kind attempt, a normative framework for risk governance structures is being put forward. Based on the framework, an index indicating strength/quality of risk governance structures is proposed. Then, the impact of risk governance structure on firm performance is gauged. To this end, the study makes use of constituents of S&P CNX500 index and covers a ten year period from April 1, 2005 to March 31, 2015.To control for potential endogeneity among variables of interest, the study makes use of a robust and reliable methodology,‘difference-GMM’. In addition, to ensure completeness of results, the study employs control variables such as recession dummy, firm’s age, size, and growth rate and leverage ratio. The results suggest that robust risk governance structures do not necessarily lead to better firm performance. In fact, risk governance index is negatively related to both ROA and ROE. The relationship is not statistically significant but has wide economic implications. A prominent implication being, mere constitution of risk management committee and appointment of CRO will not improve firm performance; regulators and companies need to ensure that governance structures are not too rigid, excessively risk averse and ineffective and inefficient in decision making. Given the simplicity and reliability of the proposed risk governance index, and the recommendations put forth in the paper, the study is expected to be of immense utility in an important yet neglected area of risk governance.
{"title":"Risk Governance Structure and Firm Performance: An (Exploratory) Empirical Study in Indian Context","authors":"M. Shivaani","doi":"10.24294/FSJ.V1I4.942","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24294/FSJ.V1I4.942","url":null,"abstract":"The study attempts to explore the relationship between riskgovernance structureand firm performance. In perhaps the first of its kind attempt, a normative framework for risk governance structures is being put forward. Based on the framework, an index indicating strength/quality of risk governance structures is proposed. Then, the impact of risk governance structure on firm performance is gauged. To this end, the study makes use of constituents of S&P CNX500 index and covers a ten year period from April 1, 2005 to March 31, 2015.To control for potential endogeneity among variables of interest, the study makes use of a robust and reliable methodology,‘difference-GMM’. In addition, to ensure completeness of results, the study employs control variables such as recession dummy, firm’s age, size, and growth rate and leverage ratio. The results suggest that robust risk governance structures do not necessarily lead to better firm performance. In fact, risk governance index is negatively related to both ROA and ROE. The relationship is not statistically significant but has wide economic implications. A prominent implication being, mere constitution of risk management committee and appointment of CRO will not improve firm performance; regulators and companies need to ensure that governance structures are not too rigid, excessively risk averse and ineffective and inefficient in decision making. Given the simplicity and reliability of the proposed risk governance index, and the recommendations put forth in the paper, the study is expected to be of immense utility in an important yet neglected area of risk governance.","PeriodicalId":447992,"journal":{"name":"Financial Statistical Journal","volume":"108 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-09-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116194720","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In this paper we make an empirical analysis of a wide range of claims developmenttrapezoids following Benford’s law. In particular we determine Benfors’s law fordifferent characteristic factors depending on claims development triangles/trapezoids.These characteristic factors are the cumulative claims payments, the incrementalclaims payments and the individual development factors. For each characteristic factor hypothesis testing is done for verifying/rejecting Benford’s law.
{"title":"Empirical Analysis of Claims Development Trapezoids following Benford’s Law","authors":"Jochen Heberle, Tobias Gummersbach","doi":"10.24294/fsj.v1i2.420","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24294/fsj.v1i2.420","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper we make an empirical analysis of a wide range of claims developmenttrapezoids following Benford’s law. In particular we determine Benfors’s law fordifferent characteristic factors depending on claims development triangles/trapezoids.These characteristic factors are the cumulative claims payments, the incrementalclaims payments and the individual development factors. For each characteristic factor hypothesis testing is done for verifying/rejecting Benford’s law.","PeriodicalId":447992,"journal":{"name":"Financial Statistical Journal","volume":"28 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-09-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131810616","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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