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The effect of oil prices on the US shipping stock prices: The mediating role of freight rates and economic indicators 油价对美国航运股票价格的影响:运价和经济指标的中介作用
IF 3.7 4区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-04-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.jcomm.2025.100474
Andreas Andrikopoulos , Anna Merika , Nikolaos Stoupos
We explore the effect of oil prices on shipping stocks and freight rates, delivering evidence that the effect of oil prices on stock prices is mediated by the effect of oil prices on freight rates and, thereof, the effect of freight rates on the stocks of US-listed shipping companies. Our data set runs from 2018 to 2023, and our methodological arsenal includes error correction models, MIDAS and Granger causality. In this context, we discover that after the Covid19 pandemic and during the Russo-Ukrainian war the interactions between oil prices, freight rates and stock prices have been disrupted, turning the effect of freight rates on stock prices from non-causal to causal and the effects of oil prices on freight rates from negative to positive.
我们探讨了石油价格对航运股票和运价的影响,提供证据表明石油价格对股票价格的影响是由石油价格对运价的影响介导的,因此,运价对美国上市航运公司股票的影响。我们的数据集从2018年到2023年,我们的方法库包括误差修正模型、MIDAS和格兰杰因果关系。在此背景下,我们发现,在新冠肺炎大流行和俄乌战争期间,油价、运费和股价之间的相互作用被打乱,运费对股价的影响由非因果变为因果,油价对运费的影响由负向正。
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引用次数: 0
Commodity correlation risk 商品相关风险
IF 3.7 4区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-03-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.jcomm.2025.100473
Joseph P. Byrne , Ryuta Sakemoto
It is widely observed that primary commodity prices comove. A parallel literature asserts that correlation risk matters for financial returns. Our novel study connects these topics and presents evidence that commodity correlation risk is both non-constant and important for returns. We reconsider therefore the relationship between primary commodities, risk and macro fundamentals, utilising methods that account for parameter uncertainty and stochastic volatility. We show that correlation risk is positively related to commodity returns and the strongest impact of risk upon return is more recent. We also demonstrate that commodity correlation risk is strongly counter-cyclical, correlation risk predicts returns, our risk measure is unrelated to other risk/uncertainty measures, and that correlation risk is linked to commodity financialization.
人们普遍认为,初级商品的价格是上涨的。一项平行文献断言,相关风险对财务回报很重要。我们的新研究将这些主题联系起来,并提供证据表明,商品相关风险既是非恒定的,也是重要的回报。因此,我们利用考虑参数不确定性和随机波动的方法,重新考虑初级商品、风险和宏观基本面之间的关系。我们表明,相关风险与商品收益呈正相关,风险对收益的最大影响是最近的。我们还证明了商品相关风险具有很强的逆周期性,相关风险预测收益,我们的风险度量与其他风险/不确定性度量无关,并且相关风险与商品金融化有关。
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引用次数: 0
Impact of supply chain pressure on traditional energy and metal markets: A Wavelet-based Quantile-on-Quantile perspective 供应链压力对传统能源和金属市场的影响:基于小波的分位数对分位数视角
IF 3.7 4区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-03-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.jcomm.2025.100472
Ahmed H. Elsayed , Giray Gozgor , Rabeh Khalfaoui , Salma Tarchella
This paper investigates the impact of the global supply chain pressure and geopolitical tensions on prominent energy and metals markets using data from January 1998 to April 2023. To this end, the study adopts Wavelet-based Quantile-on-Quantile estimations to scrutinise the time-varying nature of the relationships over the sample period and under different market conditions. The results reveal that the global supply chain pressure predicts commodity returns across various time horizons and quantiles, particularly during extreme supply chain pressures. Conversely, the impacts of geopolitical risks are more pronounced in the short- and mid-term, suggesting investors adjust energy and metal investments accordingly. The paper also indicates that commodities can play a dual role as investment and diversification assets, offering a hedge against global supply chain disruptions and geopolitical events. These findings contribute valuable insights into risk management, investment strategies, and policymakers' decision-making processes.
本文利用1998年1月至2023年4月的数据,研究了全球供应链压力和地缘政治紧张局势对主要能源和金属市场的影响。为此,本研究采用基于小波的分位数对分位数估计来考察样本期间和不同市场条件下关系的时变性质。结果表明,全球供应链压力预测了不同时间范围和分位数的商品回报,特别是在极端供应链压力下。相反,地缘政治风险的影响在中短期更为明显,这意味着投资者将相应地调整能源和金属投资。该论文还指出,大宗商品可以扮演投资和多元化资产的双重角色,为全球供应链中断和地缘政治事件提供对冲。这些发现为风险管理、投资策略和决策者的决策过程提供了有价值的见解。
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引用次数: 0
Financial investors and cross-commodity markets integration 金融投资者与跨商品市场一体化
IF 3.7 4区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-03-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.jcomm.2025.100461
Mohammad Isleimeyyeh
This article presents a model for investigating the linkages between commodity markets arising from the operation of financial investors. The model thus examines the interactions of the physical and futures markets of one commodity with those of another commodity. The framework allows the various prices (current spot, future spot, futures prices), quantities (inventory and committed demand by processors), and futures risk premiums for two commodities to be computed, thereby enabling the price relations for any two commodities to be analyzed. Through comparative statics, I identify (i) the impact of supply and demand shocks and (ii) financialization on commodity markets. Furthermore, the model demonstrates the role of cross-commodity correlation in determining the integration between commodity markets.
本文提出了一个模型来研究金融投资者运作所产生的商品市场之间的联系。因此,该模型考察了一种商品的现货市场和期货市场与另一种商品的相互作用。该框架允许计算两种商品的各种价格(当前现货、未来现货、期货价格)、数量(加工商的库存和承诺需求)和期货风险溢价,从而能够分析任意两种商品的价格关系。通过比较统计,我确定了(I)供需冲击的影响和(ii)大宗商品市场的金融化。此外,该模型还证明了跨商品相关性在决定商品市场之间整合方面的作用。
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引用次数: 0
The midstream amplifier: Risk spillovers in China's lithium supply chain from mining to batteries 中游放大器:中国锂供应链从采矿到电池的风险溢出效应
IF 3.7 4区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-03-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.jcomm.2025.100471
Lanyong Yang , Yongguang Zhu , Junhui Li , Shiquan Dou , Gang Liu , Deyi Xu
The global energy transition has significantly increased the demand for lithium resources, raising market concerns about the stability of the global lithium supply chain. Understanding the relationships among different commodities within this supply chain is crucial for managing associated risks. In this study, we apply a time-varying parameter vector autoregression model to investigate the spillover effects and dynamic dependency of price volatility across the lithium supply chain. Our results reveal a high degree of systemic risk among lithium supply chains. Specifically, the risk spillover from the midstream segment to the upstream segment is the strongest and increasing, while the risk spillover to the downstream segment is the weakest and showing a downward trend. Additionally, the midstream serves as the primary net transmitter of price shocks, whereas the upstream and downstream segments more often act as net receivers. We identify two main pathways for the spillover of price shocks: one from the midstream to the upstream and then to the downstream, and another directly from the midstream to the downstream. These findings are important for mitigating the accumulation of risks within the lithium supply chain.
全球能源转型显著增加了对锂资源的需求,引发了市场对全球锂供应链稳定性的担忧。了解供应链中不同商品之间的关系对于管理相关风险至关重要。本文采用时变参数向量自回归模型,考察了锂供应链价格波动的溢出效应和动态依赖关系。我们的研究结果表明,锂供应链存在高度的系统性风险。其中,中游向上游的风险溢出最强且呈上升趋势,而下游的风险溢出最弱且呈下降趋势。此外,中游是价格冲击的主要净发送者,而上游和下游部分通常是净接收者。我们确定了价格冲击溢出的两条主要途径:一条是从中游到上游,然后再到下游,另一条是从中游直接到下游。这些发现对于减轻锂供应链中的风险积累非常重要。
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引用次数: 0
Examining perceived spillovers among climate risk, fossil fuel, renewable energy, and carbon markets: A higher-order moment and quantile analysis 考察气候风险、化石燃料、可再生能源和碳市场之间的感知溢出效应:高阶矩和分位数分析
IF 3.7 4区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-03-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.jcomm.2025.100470
Jinxin Cui , Aktham Maghyereh
The complex risks of global climate change and the transition to a sustainable economy have increasingly become central to research and policy debates. Climate risk perceptions influence fossil fuel, renewable energy, and carbon markets through both investment behavior and regulatory policy channels. Understanding the spillovers between climate risk perceptions and commodity markets has profound implications for sustainable investments and risk management strategies. This paper extends the existing literature by examining higher-order moment risk spillovers among perceptions of climate physical risks (CPR) and transition risks (CTR), fossil fuel, renewable energy, and carbon markets across different quantiles. Furthermore, this paper also proposes an analytical framework that integrates ex-post moment measures with an innovative QVAR extended joint connectedness approach. Our empirical analysis reveals that the connectedness outcomes are contingent upon moment orders and specific quantile levels. Notably, total spillovers are markedly higher at the extreme quantiles (especially at the 0.95 quantile) compared to the median quantile. Importantly, CPRI and CTRI serve as net transmitters of spillovers at the 0.05 and 0.95 quantiles but shift to being net recipients under normal market conditions. The directional net spillovers transmitted from climate risk perceptions to energy and carbon markets are more pronounced and consistent at the extreme higher and lower quantiles. Finally, we find that dynamic total spillovers of skewness and kurtosis at extreme quantiles are more volatile than at the median, with significant sensitivity to major events such as the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine war, the Israel-Hamas war, extreme climate disasters, and the United Nations Climate Change Conferences.
全球气候变化和向可持续经济转型的复杂风险日益成为研究和政策辩论的核心。气候风险认知通过投资行为和监管政策渠道影响化石燃料、可再生能源和碳市场。了解气候风险认知与大宗商品市场之间的溢出效应对可持续投资和风险管理战略具有深远影响。本文通过研究气候物理风险(CPR)和转型风险(CTR)、化石燃料、可再生能源和碳市场感知之间的高阶矩风险溢出效应,扩展了现有文献。此外,本文还提出了一个将事后矩测度与创新的QVAR扩展联合连通性方法相结合的分析框架。我们的实证分析表明,连通性的结果取决于时刻顺序和具体的分位数水平。值得注意的是,与中位数相比,极端分位数(尤其是0.95分位数)的总溢出效应明显更高。重要的是,CPRI和CTRI在0.05和0.95分位数处是溢出效应的净发送者,但在正常市场条件下转变为净接收者。气候风险感知向能源和碳市场传递的定向净溢出效应在极端高分位数和低分位数上更为明显和一致。最后,我们发现偏度和峰度在极端分位数处的动态总溢出比在中位数处更不稳定,对COVID-19大流行、俄罗斯-乌克兰战争、以色列-哈马斯战争、极端气候灾害和联合国气候变化会议等重大事件具有显著敏感性。
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引用次数: 0
The short- and long-run cyclical variation of the cross-asset nexus: Mixed-frequency evidence on financial and ‘financialised’ assets 跨资产关系的短期和长期周期性变化:金融和“金融化”资产的混合频率证据
IF 3.7 4区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-02-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.jcomm.2025.100462
Menelaos Karanasos , Stavroula Yfanti , Jiaying Wu
We study the dynamic interdependence between stocks, a risky and financial ‘by definition’ asset class, and the ‘financialised’ assets from the real estate and commodity markets. We first introduce a new multivariate corrected Dynamic Conditional Correlations Mixed-Data Sampling (cDCC-MIDAS) model through which we analyse short- and long-run time-varying correlation dynamics among stocks, real estate, and five commodity types with direct implications for risk management and portfolio optimisation. The correlation analysis identifies short- and long-run hedging properties and interdependence types and concludes on strong countercyclical cross-asset interlinkages, highly dependent on the state of the economy in most cases (contagion effects) and weak procyclical connectedness for certain safe-haven assets (flight-to-quality). We further investigate the macro-relevance and crisis-vulnerability of the correlations’ evolution by unveiling the macro-determinants of asset co-movements. The economic environment plays a key role as a contagion or flight-to-quality transmitter, outweighing the effects of economic linkages among assets, while the uncertainty channel intensifies the macro impact on the cross-asset nexus.
我们研究了股票这一 "顾名思义 "的高风险金融资产类别与房地产和商品市场的 "金融化 "资产之间的动态相互依存关系。我们首先引入了一个新的多元校正动态条件相关混合数据采样(cDCC-MIDAS)模型,通过该模型,我们分析了股票、房地产和五种商品之间的短期和长期时变相关动态,这对风险管理和投资组合优化具有直接影响。相关性分析确定了短期和长期的对冲属性和相互依存类型,并得出结论:在大多数情况下(传染效应),强反周期性跨资产相互联系高度依赖于经济状况,而某些避险资产的弱顺周期性联系(逃向质量)。通过揭示资产共同运动的宏观决定因素,我们进一步研究了相关性演变的宏观相关性和危机脆弱性。经济环境作为传染或 "逃离质量 "的传播者发挥着关键作用,其影响超过了资产间经济联系的影响,而不确定性渠道则加剧了宏观对跨资产关系的影响。
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引用次数: 0
The pass-through of macro variable to volatility co-movement among U.S. currency and commodity futures markets system 宏观变量对美国货币和商品期货市场系统波动的传递
IF 3.7 4区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-02-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.jcomm.2025.100463
Xingyu Dai , Imran Yousaf , Jiqian Wang , Qunwei Wang , Chi Keung Marco Lau
This paper explores how the U.S. macro variable influences volatility co-movement in currency and commodity futures markets system. It does this by using the Dynamic Equicorrelation-Mixed Data Sampling-X model, and then calculating the daily realized volatility (RV), good volatility (GV), and bad volatility (BV) of 22 futures using 5-min high-frequency data. The Hodrick-Prescott filter method is applied to compute the raw, cycle, and trend components of the news for 17 macro variables and 4 principal components of these macro variables. There are three key study findings. First, the raw component of monetary policy uncertainty is the best fit for RV co-movement, while the raw component of trade policy uncertainty is the best fit for GV and BV co-movement. Second, almost all macro variables show that the trend component news do not affect volatility co-movement. Finally, the duration of the impact of macro variables exceeds 4 months, while the influence of raw news on BV co-movement is generally shorter. The macro variable information also helps currency and commodity futures investors to make global minimum variance portfolio optimization.
本文探讨了美国宏观变量如何影响货币和商品期货市场系统的波动联动性。通过使用动态等相关混合数据采样- x模型,然后使用5分钟高频数据计算22个期货的日实现波动率(RV),良好波动率(GV)和不良波动率(BV)。采用Hodrick-Prescott滤波方法对17个宏观变量和4个宏观变量的主成分计算新闻的原始成分、周期成分和趋势成分。有三个关键的研究发现。首先,货币政策不确定性的原始成分最适合RV的联合运动,而贸易政策不确定性的原始成分最适合GV和BV的联合运动。其次,几乎所有的宏观变量都表明趋势分量的消息不会影响波动的共同运动。最后,宏观变量的影响持续时间超过4个月,而原始新闻对BV联动性的影响一般较短。宏观变量信息也有助于货币和商品期货投资者进行全局最小方差投资组合优化。
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引用次数: 0
Media emotion intensity and commodity futures pricing 媒体情绪强度与商品期货定价
IF 3.7 4区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-02-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.jcomm.2025.100460
Yeguang Chi, Lina El-Jahel, Thanh Vu
This study investigates the impact of media emotion intensity on commodities futures returns. Emotion intensity measures the proportion of emotional content relative to factual content in media news. The media emotion intensity factor generates an annual premium of 13% after transaction cost. This premium is more pronounced for commodities with low media coverage, high momentum, high basis-momentum, high hedging pressure, and backwardation. Emotion intensity significantly predicts the trading tendencies of both commercial and non-commercial traders and the cross-section of commodity futures returns at both portfolio and individual levels. We also find that media emotion intensity predicts future commodities’ sentiment. Further, other commonly considered risk sources cannot subsume the predictability of the media emotion intensity factor.
本研究探讨媒体情绪强度对商品期货收益的影响。情感强度衡量媒体新闻中情感内容相对于事实内容的比例。媒体情感强度因素扣除交易成本后产生的年溢价为13%。这种溢价在低媒体报道、高动量、高基本动量、高对冲压力和现货溢价的商品中更为明显。情绪强度对商业交易者和非商业交易者的交易趋势以及商品期货在投资组合和个人层面上的收益横截面都有显著的预测作用。我们也发现媒体情绪强度预测未来商品情绪。此外,其他通常认为的风险源不能包含媒体情绪强度因素的可预测性。
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引用次数: 0
Corporate reputational dynamics and their impact on global commodity markets 企业声誉动态及其对全球商品市场的影响
IF 3.7 4区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-02-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.jcomm.2025.100459
Iris Li , Erdinc Akyildirim , Thomas Conlon , Shaen Corbet
This research examines investor response to negative Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) reputational events across international commodity-related corporations. By distinguishing between G7 and non-G7 nations, we highlight a negative equity market response to such ESG-related reputational events, emphasising the influence of regional, governance and environmental factors alongside corporate reporting practices. The research further assesses the potential of corporate ESG preparedness in mitigating negative market outcomes. It also identifies commodities such as wheat, rice, and cocoa to be notably susceptible to reputational dynamics, whereas commodity markets such as oil and gold present evidence of marked resilience. The findings emphasise the importance of sector-specific regulatory approaches to ensure rigorous governance standards, especially in essential food production sectors.
本研究考察了投资者对国际大宗商品相关公司的环境、社会和治理(ESG)负面声誉事件的反应。通过区分七国集团和非七国集团国家,我们强调了股票市场对此类与esg相关的声誉事件的负面反应,强调了地区、治理和环境因素以及公司报告实践的影响。该研究进一步评估了企业ESG准备在缓解负面市场结果方面的潜力。它还指出,小麦、大米和可可等大宗商品特别容易受到声誉动态的影响,而石油和黄金等大宗商品市场则表现出明显的弹性。研究结果强调了针对特定部门的监管方法的重要性,以确保严格的治理标准,特别是在基本食品生产部门。
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引用次数: 0
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Journal of Commodity Markets
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