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Bitcoin and money supply relationship: An analysis of selected country economies 比特币与货币供给关系:对选定国家经济的分析
IF 5.3 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.3934/qfe.2023012
Nilcan Mert, Mustafa Timur
Bitcoin has become quite known after the 2008 economic crisis and the COVID-19 health crisis. For some, these cryptocurrencies constitute rebellion against the existing system as governments encourage uncontrolled expansions in the money supply; for some others, it is a quick source of income. Undeniably, the volume of the crypto money market has grown considerably in recent years, regardless of the reasoning of the people who invest and trade in this field. At this point, one of the most important questions to be investigated is "what variables have caused the tremendous growth in the crypto money quantities in recent years?" This study tests the assumption that changes in cryptocurrencies are affected by changes in national currencies. Thus, the Bitcoin price is the dependent variable, and M1 monetary supply changes in the USA, European Union and Japanese economies are considered independent variables. The variables in this study were tested using the time-varying Granger causality method. The results obtained from this study confirm the philosophy of Bitcoin's emergence and the possibility that it can be a hedge against the inflationary effects of money, especially after the COVID-19 pandemic.
比特币在2008年经济危机和COVID-19健康危机之后变得非常出名。对一些人来说,这些加密货币构成了对现有体系的反叛,因为政府鼓励不受控制的货币供应扩张;对其他一些人来说,这是一个快速的收入来源。不可否认的是,近年来,无论在该领域投资和交易的人的理由如何,加密货币市场的规模都在大幅增长。在这一点上,需要调查的最重要的问题之一是“是什么变量导致了近年来加密货币数量的巨大增长?”本研究检验了加密货币的变化受到国家货币变化影响的假设。因此,比特币价格为因变量,美国、欧盟和日本经济体的M1货币供应量变化为自变量。本研究的变量采用时变格兰杰因果关系法进行检验。从这项研究中获得的结果证实了比特币出现的理念,以及它可以对冲货币通胀影响的可能性,特别是在COVID-19大流行之后。
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引用次数: 0
Sigmoidal dynamics of macro-financial leverage 宏观金融杠杆的s型动力学
IF 5.3 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.3934/qfe.2023008
A. D. Smirnov
Logistic sigmoids due to their flexibility seem to be natural candidates for modelling macrofinancial leverage behavior. The sigmoidal leverage transition towards its stationary value, which was driven by the yield spreads, could have replicated the dynamics of macrofinancial assets, debt and capital. The leverage transition, in its turn, has been a major factor in better balancing macrofinancial liabilities and assets. The sigmoidal leverage trajectories including their inflections and different phases were identified by a nonlinear transition function providing information necessary for steering the process towards its stable state. Solving the stationary Kolmogorov-Fokker-Plank logistic equation revealed that random leverage realizations might follow the gamma distribution. Parameters of its stationary probability density function, as well as the expected and the modal leverage, were dependent on the process variance and the yield spreads. Thus, the stochastic leverage behaviour reproduced a sequence of stylized phases similar to the observed in the US Treasuries market meltdown in 2020. In particular, larger yield spreads and smaller modal leverage signalled a "defensive" market response to sudden volatility increases. In addition, it was shown that the logistic leverage modelling could be helpful in the analysis of debt and money dynamics including some consequences of "minting a one trillion dollars coin".
Logistic s型曲线由于其灵活性似乎是建模宏观金融杠杆行为的自然候选人。在收益率息差的推动下,杠杆向平稳值的s型转变,可能复制了宏观金融资产、债务和资本的动态变化。反过来,杠杆化转型一直是更好地平衡宏观金融负债和资产的主要因素。利用非线性过渡函数识别了包括其拐点和不同相位在内的s型杠杆轨迹,提供了将过程转向稳定状态所需的信息。求解平稳Kolmogorov-Fokker-Plank logistic方程揭示了随机杠杆实现可能遵循伽玛分布。其平稳概率密度函数的参数,以及期望和模态杠杆,依赖于过程方差和收益率价差。因此,随机杠杆行为再现了一系列程式化阶段,类似于在2020年美国国债市场崩盘中观察到的情况。特别是,更大的收益率差和更小的模式杠杆表明,市场对波动性突然上升的“防御性”反应。此外,研究表明,逻辑杠杆模型可以帮助分析债务和货币动态,包括“铸造一万亿美元硬币”的一些后果。
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引用次数: 0
Government bond market risk-return trade-off 政府债券市场风险收益的权衡
IF 5.3 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.3934/qfe.2023013
C. Christiansen, Christos S. Savva

We analyze the risk-return trade-off for international (France, Germany, Netherlands, Spain, UK, and US) government bond markets and the US stock market. We measure risk by the higher order moments (volatility, skewness, and excess kurtosis) as they are defined in Savva and Theodossiou (2018). There is no risk-return trade-off when considering a linear relationship between returns and risk. We consider good and bad volatility separately as defined by threshold regressions and find non-linear risk-return trade-off, that is negative for large lagged returns.

我们分析了国际(法国、德国、荷兰、西班牙、英国和美国)政府债券市场和美国股票市场的风险回报权衡。我们通过Savva和Theodossiou(2018)中定义的高阶矩(波动性、偏度和超额峰度)来衡量风险。当考虑收益和风险之间的线性关系时,不存在风险-收益权衡。我们分别考虑由阈值回归定义的好波动率和坏波动率,并发现非线性风险-收益权衡,即对于大滞后收益是负的。
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引用次数: 0
Asian option pricing under sub-fractional vasicek model 亚分数vasicek模型下的亚洲期权定价
IF 5.3 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.3934/qfe.2023020
Lichao Tao, Yuefu Lai, Yanting Ji, Xiangxing Tao
This paper investigates the pricing formula for geometric Asian options where the underlying asset is driven by the sub-fractional Brownian motion with interest rate satisfying the sub-fractional Vasicek model. By applying the sub-fractional $ {rm{Ithat o}} $ formula, the Black-Scholes (B-S) type Partial Differential Equations (PDE) to Asian geometric average option is derived by Delta hedging principle. Moreover, the explicit pricing formula for Asian options is obtained through converting the PDE to the Cauchy problem. Numerical experiments are conducted to test the impact of the stock price, the Hurst index, the speed of interest rate adjustment, and the volatilities and their correlation for the Asian option and the interest rate model, respectively. The results show that the main parameters such as Hurst index have a significant influence on the price of Asian options.
本文研究了标的资产受次分数布朗运动驱动且利率满足次分数Vasicek模型的几何亚洲期权的定价公式。应用子分数式$ {rm{Ithat o}} $公式,利用Delta套期保值原理推导出亚洲几何平均期权的Black-Scholes (B-S)型偏微分方程。将PDE问题转化为柯西问题,得到了亚洲期权的显式定价公式。通过数值实验分别检验了股票价格、Hurst指数、利率调整速度、波动性及其相关性对亚洲期权和利率模型的影响。结果表明,Hurst指数等主要参数对亚洲期权价格有显著影响。
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引用次数: 1
Pricing and hedging bond options and sinking-fund bonds under the CIR model CIR模型下债券期权和下沉基金债券的定价与对冲
IF 5.3 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.3934/qfe.2022001
Manuela Larguinho, José Carlos Dias, C. Braumann
This article derives simple closed-form solutions for computing Greeks of zero-coupon and coupon-bearing bond options under the CIR interest rate model, which are shown to be accurate, easy to implement, and computationally highly efficient. These novel analytical solutions allow us to extend the literature in two other directions. First, the static hedging portfolio approach is used for pricing and hedging American-style plain-vanilla zero-coupon bond options under the CIR model. Second, we derive analytically the comparative static properties of sinking-fund bonds under the same interest rate modeling setup.
本文推导了在CIR利率模型下计算零息债券和含息债券期权希腊值的简单闭式解,结果表明该解准确、易于实现、计算效率高。这些新颖的分析解使我们能够在另外两个方向上扩展文献。首先,在CIR模型下,采用静态对冲组合方法对美式普通零息债券期权进行定价和对冲。其次,分析得出了在相同利率模型设置下下沉基金债券的比较静态特性。
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引用次数: 0
Asymmetric interdependencies between cryptocurrency and commodity markets: the COVID-19 pandemic impact 加密货币和商品市场之间的不对称相互依赖关系:COVID-19大流行的影响
IF 5.3 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.3934/qfe.2022004
Francisco Jareño, María de la O González, Pascual Belmonte
Using NARDL methodology, this research investigates some asymmetric and non-linear interconnections between leading cryptocurrency and commodity returns. Thus, this study explores potential interconnections between these cryptocurrencies and commodity markets in the period between March 07, 2018, and March 26, 2021. This paper splits the entire sample period into two independent sub-periods in order to enhance robustness: pre-COVID and COVID, to examine the impact of the pandemic on these markets. Our results confirm that the most relevant interconnection (in terms of cointegration, short- and long- asymmetry, and the persistence of the lags) between cryptos and commodities is focused on COVID-19, the pandemic sub-period, in line with previous literature. Finally, the study reveals that some cryptocurrencies such as Tether could serve as a diversifying asset or even a safe haven, in certain scenarios, in investment strategies.
本研究使用NARDL方法研究了主要加密货币和商品回报之间的一些不对称和非线性相互关系。因此,本研究探讨了2018年3月7日至2021年3月26日期间这些加密货币与商品市场之间的潜在相互联系。为了增强稳健性,本文将整个样本周期分为两个独立的子周期:pre-COVID和COVID,以检查大流行对这些市场的影响。我们的研究结果证实,加密货币和大宗商品之间最相关的相互联系(就协整、短期和长期不对称以及滞后的持久性而言)集中在COVID-19大流行子时期,这与之前的文献一致。最后,该研究表明,在某些情况下,在投资策略中,一些加密货币(如Tether)可以作为多元化资产,甚至是安全港。
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引用次数: 7
Staggered loans: A flexible modality of long-term financing for SMEs in global health emergencies 交错贷款:在全球突发卫生事件中为中小企业提供长期融资的灵活方式
IF 5.3 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.3934/QFE.2022024
S. C. Rambaud, J. L. Pascual, Emilio M. Santandreu
Context: The context of this paper is the unprecedented global situation which has been and is still experiencing all countries all over the world, due to the pandemic caused by Covid-19 and its variants. Apart from the important problem of health population, all countries are facing a sharp reduction in their main economic indicators: stock indices, GDP (Gross Domestic Product), rates of employment, closing down of businesses, etc. Results: In this paper, we have presented and mathematically analyzed the so-called staggered loans as a useful tool for SMEs to be applied after times of crisis. Moreover, their pros and cons, and the advantages for lenders and borrowers have been highlighted. Specifically, this kind of loan can help solve the problem of the scarce offer of credit due to monetary politics currently addressed to reduce inflation. Policy implications: Taking into account that this economic situation cannot continue for longtime, many countries are thinking about the next stages of the way-out from the crisis in all sectors of affected economies. Purpose: In this research, we seek to provide some information on the characteristics of the so-called staggered loans and the repayment system applied by some microfinance institutions in Latin America. This can help SMEs to obtain the liquidity necessary to reopen and develop their activity. Methods: Methodologically, we have presented risk-based measures able to guarantee the profitability of lenders and control the solvency of lenders and borrowers.
背景:本文的背景是由于Covid-19及其变体引起的大流行,世界各国已经并仍在经历前所未有的全球形势。除了重要的人口健康问题外,所有国家都面临着其主要经济指标的急剧下降:股票指数、国内生产总值、就业率、企业倒闭等。结果:在本文中,我们提出并数学分析了所谓的交错贷款作为中小企业在危机时期应用的有用工具。此外,它们的优点和缺点以及贷方和借款人的优势都得到了强调。具体来说,这种贷款可以帮助解决目前为减少通货膨胀而进行的货币政策所导致的信贷稀缺问题。政策影响:考虑到这种经济状况不可能长期持续,许多国家正在考虑受影响经济体所有部门摆脱危机的下一阶段。目的:在这项研究中,我们试图提供一些关于所谓的交错贷款的特点和拉丁美洲一些小额信贷机构所采用的还款制度的信息。这可以帮助中小企业获得重新开业和发展其活动所必需的流动性。方法:在方法上,我们提出了基于风险的措施,能够保证贷款人的盈利能力和控制贷款人和借款人的偿付能力。
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引用次数: 0
Pricing hybrid-triggered catastrophe bonds based on copula-EVT model 基于copula-EVT模型的混合触发巨灾债券定价
IF 5.3 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.3934/qfe.2022010
Longfei Wei, Lu Liu, Jialong Hou
This paper presents a hybrid-triggered catastrophe bond (CAT bond) pricing model. We take earthquake CAT bonds as an example for model construction and numerical analysis. According to the characteristics of earthquake disasters, we choose direct economic loss and magnitude as trigger indicators. The marginal distributions of the two trigger indicators are depicted using extreme value theory, and the joint distribution is established by using a copula function. Furthermore, we derive a multi-year hybrid-triggered CAT bond pricing formula under stochastic interest rates. The numerical experiments show that the bond price is negatively correlated with maturity, market interest rate and dependence of trigger indicators, and positively correlated with trigger level and coupon rate. This study can be used as a reference for formulating reasonable CAT bond pricing strategies.
提出了一种混合触发巨灾债券的定价模型。以地震CAT键为例进行了模型构建和数值分析。根据地震灾害的特点,选择直接经济损失和震级作为触发指标。利用极值理论描述了两个触发指标的边际分布,并利用联结函数建立了联合分布。进一步推导了随机利率下的多年混合触发CAT债券定价公式。数值实验表明,债券价格与期限、市场利率和触发指标的依赖性呈负相关,与触发水平和票面利率呈正相关。本研究可为制定合理的CAT债券定价策略提供参考。
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引用次数: 7
Assessing the safe haven properties of oil in African stock markets amid the COVID-19 pandemic: a quantile regression analysis 评估2019冠状病毒病大流行期间非洲股市石油的避险特性:分位数回归分析
IF 5.3 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.3934/qfe.2022011
Emmanuel Assifuah-Nunoo, Peterson Owusu Junior, A. Adam, A. Bossman
Using the quantile regression approach to reveal the conditional relationships, the study re-examined the oil-stock co-movement in the context of oil-exporting countries in Africa. The data employed include daily OPEC basket price for crude oil and daily data on stock market indices for six major stock markets of oil-exporting economies in Africa—Egypt, Ghana, Morocco, Nigeria, South Africa, and Tunisia, from 02 January 2020 to 06 May 2021. We found that crude oil cannot act as safe haven instrument for stock markets in oil-exporting African countries. Notably, the oil-stock co-movement is consistent and more intense at the lower tails only. Investors are encouraged to employ oil as a diversification instrument rather than as a safe haven asset, based on market conditions. Regulators should devise strategies to strengthen the market for crude oil to lessen adverse volatilities during the COVID-19 pandemic by way of mitigating downward returns in African stock markets. The findings of the study offer more interesting economic insights to all classes of investors as well as policymakers in oil-exporting economies in Africa.
利用分位数回归方法揭示条件关系,本研究在非洲石油出口国的背景下重新考察了石油库存的共同运动。所采用的数据包括2020年1月2日至2021年5月6日欧佩克原油一揽子价格每日数据和非洲六个石油出口经济体(埃及、加纳、摩洛哥、尼日利亚、南非和突尼斯)股票市场指数的每日数据。我们发现原油不能作为非洲石油出口国股票市场的避险工具。值得注意的是,石油-股票的共同运动是一致的,并且只在较低的尾部更强烈。根据市场情况,政府鼓励投资者将石油作为一种分散投资工具,而不是作为一种避险资产。监管机构应制定战略,加强原油市场,通过缓解非洲股市的下行回报,减少新冠疫情期间的不利波动。这项研究的发现为非洲石油出口经济体的各类投资者和政策制定者提供了更有趣的经济见解。
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引用次数: 18
FDI Escapism: the effect of home country risks on outbound investment in the global economy FDI逃避主义:全球经济中母国风险对对外投资的影响
IF 5.3 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.3934/qfe.2022005
O. Osabuohien-Irabor, I. Drapkin
Over the past few decades, large numbers of literatures in behavior finance have examined firm's internationalization motives, with focused on how host country's risk components affect investment inflow. But the effects of home country risk on investment outflow remain unexamined. Therefore, based on the conceptualization of FDI escapism and the combine frameworks of Dunning's eclectic paradigm and internationalization theory, the objectives of this study are twofold: First, to examine and explain the effects of home country composite risks (which encompasses economic risks, financial risks, political risk) on firms' internationalization motive through outward FDI. Second, to determine which components of home country risk "pushes" firms to initiate the FDI escapism phenomenon in global market. Findings reveal that home country composite risk has moderate adverse effect on investment flow abroad, contributed by both the political and financial risk components, which may give rise to escaping FDI. These findings suggest that firm may initiate outward FDI as a partial escape strategy to address the political and financial challenges in their home country. These results are robust to endogeneity issue and have several substantial implications for policy design to reduce country risks in order to achieve firm's specific objective and government policy goals.
在过去的几十年里,行为金融学的大量文献研究了企业的国际化动机,重点关注东道国的风险成分如何影响投资流入。但母国风险对投资外流的影响仍未得到检验。因此,基于对FDI逃避主义的概念化和邓宁折衷主义范式与国际化理论的结合框架,本研究的目的有两个:第一,检验和解释母国复合风险(包括经济风险、金融风险和政治风险)对企业对外直接投资国际化动机的影响。第二,确定母国风险的哪些成分“推动”企业在全球市场上发起FDI逃避现象。研究结果表明,母国综合风险对国外投资流动有适度的不利影响,这是由政治和金融风险组成的,这可能导致逃避外国直接投资。这些发现表明,企业可能将对外直接投资作为一种部分逃避策略,以应对其本国的政治和金融挑战。这些结果对内生性问题是强有力的,并对减少国家风险的政策设计具有若干重大意义,以实现企业的具体目标和政府的政策目标。
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引用次数: 2
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Quantitative Finance and Economics
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