The companies' investment and financing policies are dynamically interrelated and there is no general consensus about the direction of this relationship. There are theoretical arguments and empirical evidence supporting both possible directions, which makes panel vector autoregressive models an appropriate tool. However, the financial ratios normally used to assess this relationship empirically tend to be asymmetric, and to have extreme outliers and non-linear relationships. The aim of this article is to propose a methodological approach to address these issues by complementing panel vector autoregressive models with compositional data analysis. The usefulness of the proposed methodology is illustrated with real data of Spanish retail companies, while a reanalysis with standard financial ratios is inconclusive.
{"title":"The relationship between asset and capital structure: a compositional approach with panel vector autoregressive models","authors":"Miquel Carreras-Simó, G. Coenders","doi":"10.3934/qfe.2021025","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3934/qfe.2021025","url":null,"abstract":"The companies' investment and financing policies are dynamically interrelated and there is no general consensus about the direction of this relationship. There are theoretical arguments and empirical evidence supporting both possible directions, which makes panel vector autoregressive models an appropriate tool. However, the financial ratios normally used to assess this relationship empirically tend to be asymmetric, and to have extreme outliers and non-linear relationships. The aim of this article is to propose a methodological approach to address these issues by complementing panel vector autoregressive models with compositional data analysis. The usefulness of the proposed methodology is illustrated with real data of Spanish retail companies, while a reanalysis with standard financial ratios is inconclusive.","PeriodicalId":45226,"journal":{"name":"Quantitative Finance and Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.3,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"70229277","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The rapid development of financial technology not only provides a lot of convenience to people's production and life, but also brings a lot of risks to financial security. To prevent financial risks, a better way is to build an accurate warning model before the financial risk occurs, not to find a solution after the outbreak of the risk. In the past decade, deep learning has made amazing achievements in the fields, such as image recognition, natural language processing. Therefore, some researchers try to apply deep learning methods to financial risk prediction and most of the results are satisfactory. The main work of this paper is to review the predecessors' work of deep learning for financial risk prediction according to three prominent characteristics of financial data: heterogeneity, multi-source, and imbalance. We first briefly introduced some classical deep learning models as the model basis of financial risk prediction. Then we analyzed the reasons for these characteristics of financial data. Meanwhile, we studied the differences of commonly used deep learning models according to different data characteristics. Finally, we pointed out some open issues with research significance in this field and suggested the future implementations that might be feasible.
{"title":"A survey on deep learning for financial risk prediction","authors":"Kuashuai Peng, Guofeng Yan","doi":"10.3934/qfe.2021032","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3934/qfe.2021032","url":null,"abstract":"The rapid development of financial technology not only provides a lot of convenience to people's production and life, but also brings a lot of risks to financial security. To prevent financial risks, a better way is to build an accurate warning model before the financial risk occurs, not to find a solution after the outbreak of the risk. In the past decade, deep learning has made amazing achievements in the fields, such as image recognition, natural language processing. Therefore, some researchers try to apply deep learning methods to financial risk prediction and most of the results are satisfactory. The main work of this paper is to review the predecessors' work of deep learning for financial risk prediction according to three prominent characteristics of financial data: heterogeneity, multi-source, and imbalance. We first briefly introduced some classical deep learning models as the model basis of financial risk prediction. Then we analyzed the reasons for these characteristics of financial data. Meanwhile, we studied the differences of commonly used deep learning models according to different data characteristics. Finally, we pointed out some open issues with research significance in this field and suggested the future implementations that might be feasible.","PeriodicalId":45226,"journal":{"name":"Quantitative Finance and Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.3,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"70229659","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In this study, we exploit the information contained in financial innovations in precious metals for hedging the risks associated with the Asia-Pacific equities during the current pandemic. We measure financial innovations as exchange traded funds (ETFs) for gold, silver, platinum and palladium which contrast with investment in the physical precious metals since the former tracks well the prices of the latter and as well provides cost-effective alternative to invest in the markets without storage costs. Based on the optimal portfolio weights and optimal hedge ratios, we find that gold offers the best hedge (followed by silver, platinum, and palladium) against the risk associated with the Asia-Pacific equities during the COVID-19 pandemic albeit with a lower hedging effectiveness during the pandemic. Overall, including gold ETFs in an Asia-Pacific equity portfolio would provide both a valuable portfolio combination that could improve the risk-adjusted performance of the market in addition to serving as an effective hedge for equity-related risks.
{"title":"Hedging with financial innovations in the Asia-Pacific markets during the COVID-19 pandemic: the role of precious metals","authors":"Sikiru Abidemi Abdulsalam, Afees A. Salisu","doi":"10.3934/QFE.2021016","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3934/QFE.2021016","url":null,"abstract":"In this study, we exploit the information contained in financial innovations in precious metals for hedging the risks associated with the Asia-Pacific equities during the current pandemic. We measure financial innovations as exchange traded funds (ETFs) for gold, silver, platinum and palladium which contrast with investment in the physical precious metals since the former tracks well the prices of the latter and as well provides cost-effective alternative to invest in the markets without storage costs. Based on the optimal portfolio weights and optimal hedge ratios, we find that gold offers the best hedge (followed by silver, platinum, and palladium) against the risk associated with the Asia-Pacific equities during the COVID-19 pandemic albeit with a lower hedging effectiveness during the pandemic. Overall, including gold ETFs in an Asia-Pacific equity portfolio would provide both a valuable portfolio combination that could improve the risk-adjusted performance of the market in addition to serving as an effective hedge for equity-related risks.","PeriodicalId":45226,"journal":{"name":"Quantitative Finance and Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.3,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"70229266","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Selahattin Kaynak, Aykut Ekinci, Havvanur Feyza Kaya
This study investigates the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the residential real estate prices in Turkey. This study indicates the effect of COVID-19, loan package, macroeconomic and behavioral control variables on abnormal returns of residential real estate prices during the event window. This study consists of three econometric steps. Firstly, the abnormal returns of the residential real estate prices are obtained by using an event study. Secondly, the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on abnormal returns of residential real estate prices was estimated by panel data analysis for regional and city levels. According to the findings of the city level, the COVID-19 pandemic has a negative effect on abnormal returns of residential prices, as expected. However, the regional analysis shows mainly a positive COVID-19 effect.
{"title":"The effect of COVID-19 pandemic on residential real estate prices: Turkish case","authors":"Selahattin Kaynak, Aykut Ekinci, Havvanur Feyza Kaya","doi":"10.3934/qfe.2021028","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3934/qfe.2021028","url":null,"abstract":"This study investigates the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the residential real estate prices in Turkey. This study indicates the effect of COVID-19, loan package, macroeconomic and behavioral control variables on abnormal returns of residential real estate prices during the event window. This study consists of three econometric steps. Firstly, the abnormal returns of the residential real estate prices are obtained by using an event study. Secondly, the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on abnormal returns of residential real estate prices was estimated by panel data analysis for regional and city levels. According to the findings of the city level, the COVID-19 pandemic has a negative effect on abnormal returns of residential prices, as expected. However, the regional analysis shows mainly a positive COVID-19 effect.","PeriodicalId":45226,"journal":{"name":"Quantitative Finance and Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.3,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"70229439","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Mumtaz Ahmed, M. Azam, S. Bekiros, S. Hina, F. Finance
This paper provides new insights to the long-standing debate initiated by Nelson-Plosser (1982) regarding the mean reverting behaviour of real GDP per capita. The empirical analysis is based on wavelet framework introduced in Aydin and Pata Aydin (2020) which considers not only frequency domain along with time domain but also takes care of smooth structural changes ignored by earlier wavelet based unit root tests, and covers latest available data on 177 countries across the globe. Specifically, the countries are classified into seven different regions (East Asia and Pacific Region, Europe and Central Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, Middle East and North Africa, North America, South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa) as per guidelines of World Bank. The empirical findings yield interesting insights and several new lessons for practitioners and policy analysts.
{"title":"Are output fluctuations transitory or permanent? New evidence from a novel Global Multi-scale Modeling approach","authors":"Mumtaz Ahmed, M. Azam, S. Bekiros, S. Hina, F. Finance","doi":"10.3934/QFE.2021017","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3934/QFE.2021017","url":null,"abstract":"This paper provides new insights to the long-standing debate initiated by Nelson-Plosser (1982) regarding the mean reverting behaviour of real GDP per capita. The empirical analysis is based on wavelet framework introduced in Aydin and Pata Aydin (2020) which considers not only frequency domain along with time domain but also takes care of smooth structural changes ignored by earlier wavelet based unit root tests, and covers latest available data on 177 countries across the globe. Specifically, the countries are classified into seven different regions (East Asia and Pacific Region, Europe and Central Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, Middle East and North Africa, North America, South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa) as per guidelines of World Bank. The empirical findings yield interesting insights and several new lessons for practitioners and policy analysts.","PeriodicalId":45226,"journal":{"name":"Quantitative Finance and Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.3,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"70229372","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
With the increasing openness of the China economy, the goal of this paper is to examine volatility connectedness and spillover transmissions across markets for stock, public real estate, bond, commodity futures, and foreign exchange within the China economy. Over the full study period, we find that the five China’s financial markets are not strongly volatility connected. The bond market is the predominant market of spillover transmission, whereas the commodity futures market is the top net recipient of volatility connectedness shocks. The role of spillover transmission increased during the three financial crisis periods studied. Additionally, the five markets display some degree of nonlinear causal dependence. During the Chinese stock market crash, the stock and public real estate reacted with similar patterns and larger positive or negative responses to shocks, whereas bonds and commodity futures have milder shocks response. Our findings have important implications for portfolio investors in asset diversification and policymakers in their domestic macroprudential policy coordination and control.
{"title":"Volatility connectedness and market dependence across major financial markets in China economy","authors":"K. Liow, J. Song, Xiaoxiao Zhou","doi":"10.3934/QFE.2021018","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3934/QFE.2021018","url":null,"abstract":"With the increasing openness of the China economy, the goal of this paper is to examine volatility connectedness and spillover transmissions across markets for stock, public real estate, bond, commodity futures, and foreign exchange within the China economy. Over the full study period, we find that the five China’s financial markets are not strongly volatility connected. The bond market is the predominant market of spillover transmission, whereas the commodity futures market is the top net recipient of volatility connectedness shocks. The role of spillover transmission increased during the three financial crisis periods studied. Additionally, the five markets display some degree of nonlinear causal dependence. During the Chinese stock market crash, the stock and public real estate reacted with similar patterns and larger positive or negative responses to shocks, whereas bonds and commodity futures have milder shocks response. Our findings have important implications for portfolio investors in asset diversification and policymakers in their domestic macroprudential policy coordination and control.","PeriodicalId":45226,"journal":{"name":"Quantitative Finance and Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.3,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"70229438","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Dongziao Qiu, Nanchang China Economics, Dongju Li, Zhengzhou China Law
Due to the problem of "true value agnostic" in the measurement of the real world, people believe that the existing methods can be closer to the true value by improving them. Therefore, they are willing to excessively affirm the more advanced method and deny the relatively "traditional" method. Taking the exchange rate method and purchasing power parity method commonly used in international economic comparison as examples, this paper generalizes the problems revealed by the exchange-rate-deviation index and concludes that there are at least three paradoxes in the deviation measurement of different methods. These paradoxes are the paradox of behavior significance, the paradox of comparative object, and the paradox of measurement result. The reason is that there is a cautionary trap in the improvement or innovation of measurement methods in reality. Sometimes the improved method is not necessarily better than the unimproved method. People tend to prefer advanced technology and methodology, but the problem of statistical input and related statistical benefits need to be considered in practical measurement. In fact, these basic problems still exist in some of the methods of economic statistics that we regard as common sense. When learning or introducing new methods, scholars do not absolutize the existing methods and conclusions. They should pay attention to critical experience, avoid the trap of improvement methods, and seek real improvement or innovation.
{"title":"Paradox in deviation measure and trap in method improvement—take international comparison as an example","authors":"Dongziao Qiu, Nanchang China Economics, Dongju Li, Zhengzhou China Law","doi":"10.3934/qfe.2021026","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3934/qfe.2021026","url":null,"abstract":"Due to the problem of \"true value agnostic\" in the measurement of the real world, people believe that the existing methods can be closer to the true value by improving them. Therefore, they are willing to excessively affirm the more advanced method and deny the relatively \"traditional\" method. Taking the exchange rate method and purchasing power parity method commonly used in international economic comparison as examples, this paper generalizes the problems revealed by the exchange-rate-deviation index and concludes that there are at least three paradoxes in the deviation measurement of different methods. These paradoxes are the paradox of behavior significance, the paradox of comparative object, and the paradox of measurement result. The reason is that there is a cautionary trap in the improvement or innovation of measurement methods in reality. Sometimes the improved method is not necessarily better than the unimproved method. People tend to prefer advanced technology and methodology, but the problem of statistical input and related statistical benefits need to be considered in practical measurement. In fact, these basic problems still exist in some of the methods of economic statistics that we regard as common sense. When learning or introducing new methods, scholars do not absolutize the existing methods and conclusions. They should pay attention to critical experience, avoid the trap of improvement methods, and seek real improvement or innovation.","PeriodicalId":45226,"journal":{"name":"Quantitative Finance and Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.3,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"70229326","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The present article seeks to analyze the financial policies of companies backed by Private Equity and Venture Capital funds (PE/VC). Our sample consists of firms completing an initial public offering between January 1991 and December 2000. Our hypotheses relate to the difference between VC and non-VC-backed firms in terms of financial policies and their persistence. We use four measures to evaluate the firms' financial policies: i) Cash holdings; ii) Leverage; iii) dividends out of their earnings; and iv) interest coverage. To test the four hypotheses, we run Pooled OLS regressions. The results suggest that VC-backing firms keep a higher level of cash holdings than non-VC-backed firms. This effect lasts for at least 8 years after the IPO. We show that VC-backed firms are associated with a lower level of leverage over the first 8 years after the IPO. Differently, while interest coverage is lower in the first years after the IPO, results are not persistent, even reverting in later years. Finally, we do not find statistically significant evidence of a difference between VC- and non-VC-backed firms on dividend to earnings ratio. Our results are robust across statistical methods and different methodologies.
{"title":"Venture capital backing: financial policies and persistence over time","authors":"A. de Carvalho, Pinheiro Roberto, Sampaio Joelson","doi":"10.3934/qfe.2021029","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3934/qfe.2021029","url":null,"abstract":"The present article seeks to analyze the financial policies of companies backed by Private Equity and Venture Capital funds (PE/VC). Our sample consists of firms completing an initial public offering between January 1991 and December 2000. Our hypotheses relate to the difference between VC and non-VC-backed firms in terms of financial policies and their persistence. We use four measures to evaluate the firms' financial policies: i) Cash holdings; ii) Leverage; iii) dividends out of their earnings; and iv) interest coverage. To test the four hypotheses, we run Pooled OLS regressions. The results suggest that VC-backing firms keep a higher level of cash holdings than non-VC-backed firms. This effect lasts for at least 8 years after the IPO. We show that VC-backed firms are associated with a lower level of leverage over the first 8 years after the IPO. Differently, while interest coverage is lower in the first years after the IPO, results are not persistent, even reverting in later years. Finally, we do not find statistically significant evidence of a difference between VC- and non-VC-backed firms on dividend to earnings ratio. Our results are robust across statistical methods and different methodologies.","PeriodicalId":45226,"journal":{"name":"Quantitative Finance and Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.3,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"70229502","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper applies cluster analysis to eleven (continuous) years' worth of responses to the Canadian Payroll Association (CPA) survey of employed Canadians. The clustering algorithm clearly identifies three distinct groups of respondents. Between-group comparison of response patterns reveals that two of the groups lie on opposite sides of the financial health spectrum, and leads us to label their members "financially stressed" and "financially capable", respectively. The third group shares characteristics with both the stressed and capable groups, and we label its members as "financially coping". We find that financial stress is both widespread (one third of all respondents are identified as stressed) and complex (stress is only weakly related to simple demographics such as age or income). From a methodological perspective, an important point is that our use of cluster analysis allows us to generate rigorous insights into financial well-being, without having to measure it directly.
{"title":"Learning about financial health in Canada","authors":"Adam Metzler,Yuhao Zhou,Chuck Grace","doi":"10.3934/qfe.2021024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3934/qfe.2021024","url":null,"abstract":"This paper applies cluster analysis to eleven (continuous) years' worth of responses to the Canadian Payroll Association (CPA) survey of employed Canadians. The clustering algorithm clearly identifies three distinct groups of respondents. Between-group comparison of response patterns reveals that two of the groups lie on opposite sides of the financial health spectrum, and leads us to label their members \"financially stressed\" and \"financially capable\", respectively. The third group shares characteristics with both the stressed and capable groups, and we label its members as \"financially coping\". We find that financial stress is both widespread (one third of all respondents are identified as stressed) and complex (stress is only weakly related to simple demographics such as age or income). From a methodological perspective, an important point is that our use of cluster analysis allows us to generate rigorous insights into financial well-being, without having to measure it directly.","PeriodicalId":45226,"journal":{"name":"Quantitative Finance and Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.3,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138503661","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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