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U.S.-China trade relations in an era of great power competition 大国竞争时代的美中贸易关系
IF 3.3 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-09-02 DOI: 10.1080/17538963.2022.2117185
D. Dollar
Abstract The tech war is having an effect on U.S.-China trade. For high-tech products like telecommunications equipment, semiconductors, and computer accessories, there has been a sharp drop in trade in both directions. This is not simply a drop in demand in the U.S. for these items because imports of them from other partners has soared. Vietnam’s exports to the U.S. jumped in the sensitive categories, and overall Vietnamese exports to the U.S. more than doubled between 2018 and 2021. Despite these effects from the tech war, however, overall U.S.-China trade has held up surprisingly well. The year 2022 will almost certainly see a new historical high for trade in both directions. This resilience of trade, in the face of tariffs and tech sanctions, indicates that there is a strong economic foundation for the two-way relationship. For both China and the U.S., it is hard to replace the other one as a trade partner. It is possible for production of a few specific items to shift from China to Vietnam, but there is no way to replace China’s huge manufacturing output. From China’s point of view, the technologically advanced countries are all allies of the U.S., and it is not easy for China to turn to Europe for the technology it cannot get from America. Because U.S.-China trade is based on strong fundamentals, it will probably continue at a high level, in an uneasy equilibrium in which certain trade and investment is off-limits, while other business goes on.
科技战正在对中美贸易产生影响。在电信设备、半导体和电脑配件等高科技产品方面,双向贸易大幅下降。这不仅仅是因为美国对这些商品的需求下降,因为美国从其他伙伴国进口这些商品的数量飙升。越南对美国的出口在敏感类别中大幅增长,2018年至2021年期间,越南对美国的总体出口增长了一倍以上。然而,尽管科技战带来了这些影响,但美中贸易的总体表现出人意料地好。几乎可以肯定的是,2022年双方贸易将创下历史新高。面对关税和技术制裁,这种贸易韧性表明,中美双边关系有着坚实的经济基础。中国和美国都很难取代对方成为贸易伙伴。少数特定产品的生产有可能从中国转移到越南,但没有办法取代中国庞大的制造业产出。从中国的角度来看,技术先进的国家都是美国的盟友,中国从美国得不到的技术转向欧洲并不容易。由于美中贸易建立在强大的基础之上,它可能会继续保持高水平,在一种不稳定的平衡中,某些贸易和投资被禁止,而其他业务继续进行。
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引用次数: 3
The reemergence of the issue of US ‘external sustainability’ and what should be China’s responses 美国“外部可持续性”问题的重新出现,以及中国应该如何应对
IF 3.3 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-09-02 DOI: 10.1080/17538963.2022.2117167
Yu Yongding
Abstract America’s current-account deficit has grown significantly since 2020, reaching 3.6% of GDP last year – its highest level since 2008. At the same time, its net foreign debt reached a staggering $18 trillion, or 78% of GDP. And fast-rising inflation has prompted the US Federal Reserve to begin raising interest rates and reducing its holdings of Treasury securities – moves that are likely to impede growth and increase the government’s borrowing cost. Will America’s “external sustainability” be at risk again? To answer that question, we must consider the four variables on which external sustainability depends: the gap between private saving and private investment, the size of the budget deficit, investment-income levels, and the rate of GDP growth. Geopolitics might compound the challenges ahead. The US has avoided a balance-of- payments and dollar crisis in the past largely because Asian central banks and oil- exporting countries have tirelessly purchased US government bonds and Treasury bills. But amid rising geopolitical tensions, these buyers might decide – or be forced – to rethink their purchases. It is against this backdrop that the Fed is pursuing rather aggressive interest-rate hikes and quantitative tightening. But increased demand for foreign capital to finance the trade deficit, together with greater reluctance by foreign investors to purchase US government bonds and Treasuries, might put America in a quandary. It is likely that America’s external balance will deteriorate significantly, unless US GDP growth slows significantly.
自2020年以来,美国的经常项目赤字大幅增长,去年达到GDP的3.6%,是自2008年以来的最高水平。与此同时,其净外债达到了惊人的18万亿美元,占GDP的78%。快速上升的通胀已促使美联储(fed)开始加息并减持美国国债——这些举措可能会阻碍经济增长,增加政府的借贷成本。美国的“外部可持续性”会再次面临风险吗?要回答这个问题,我们必须考虑外部可持续性所依赖的四个变量:私人储蓄与私人投资之间的差距、预算赤字规模、投资收入水平和GDP增长率。地缘政治可能会加剧未来的挑战。美国过去避免了国际收支和美元危机,主要是因为亚洲各国央行和石油出口国不知疲倦地购买了美国政府债券和美国国债。但随着地缘政治紧张局势的加剧,这些买家可能会决定——或被迫——重新考虑他们的购买行为。正是在这种背景下,美联储采取了相当激进的加息和量化紧缩政策。但是,为填补贸易赤字而增加的对外国资本的需求,加上外国投资者更不愿意购买美国政府债券和国债,可能会让美国陷入两难境地。除非美国GDP增长显著放缓,否则美国的外部平衡很可能会显著恶化。
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引用次数: 1
China’s changing economic relations with the world: introduction 中国与世界不断变化的经济关系简介
IF 3.3 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-09-02 DOI: 10.1080/17538963.2022.2118458
Yiping Huang
How will the unexpected Russia–Ukraine conflict started in late February 2022 redefine China’s economic relations with the rest of the world? This is the central question of the current special issue. Although China is not directly involved, the conflict could change the way the world economy operates. China’s economic relations with the rest of the world, especially with the United States and its allies, started to change years earlier. But the Russia–Ukraine conflict could accelerate such change. When China decided to start economic reform at the end of 1978, it was virtually an autarkic economy. Exports, which accounted for less than 5% of GDP, were mainly resource and agricultural products, and were organized by twelve state-owned export corporations in order to exchange for imports of machinery and equipment products. Inward or outward international investment was literally non-existent. During the following decades, China quickl emerged as one of the most successful economic stories worldwide. Between 1978 and 2008, China’s real GDP growth averaged 9.8%. Its GDP per capita rose from less than US$200 to above US$3,000 during the same period. In 2010, China surpassed Japan to become the world second largest economy. In retrospect, the external sector was a key driver of economic development during that time. In the late 1980s, the Chinese government formulated ‘the great external economic circulation strategy’, leveraging the external capital, inputs, technology and market. And in 2001, China joined the World Trade Organization. As a result, exports rose to 35% of GDP in 2006 and, in the 1990s and the 2000s, China was regularly the largest recipient country of foreign direct investment. Apparently, the reform and open-door policies were the most important factors contributing to China’s economic success during the past decades. The reform policy not only re-introduced incentives for workers and entrepreneurs to work hard but also adopted the market mechanism to allocate resources. And the open-door policy enabled China to participate in the international division of labor as well as taking advantages of international capital and technology. The favorable external environment also played irreplaceable roles in China’s economic development and opening up. These came in two dimensions: one was starting of economic globalization from 1971 and the other was warming of Sino-US relations
2022年2月下旬爆发的俄乌冲突将如何重新定义中国与世界其他地区的经济关系?这是本期特刊的核心问题。尽管中国没有直接参与,但这场冲突可能会改变世界经济的运作方式。中国与世界其他地区的经济关系,特别是与美国及其盟友的经济关系早在几年前就开始发生变化。但俄乌冲突可能会加速这种变化。1978年底,当中国决定开始经济改革时,它实际上是一个自给自足的经济体。出口占国内生产总值不到5%,主要是资源和农产品,由12家国有出口公司组织,以换取机械和设备产品的进口。实际上不存在对内或对外的国际投资。在接下来的几十年里,中国迅速成为世界上最成功的经济故事之一。1978年至2008年,中国实际国内生产总值平均增长9.8%,同期人均国内生产总值从不足200美元上升到3000美元以上。2010年,中国超过日本,成为世界第二大经济体。回顾过去,外部部门是当时经济发展的关键驱动力。20世纪80年代末,中国政府制定了“大外部经济循环战略”,利用外部资本、投入、技术和市场。2001年,中国加入了世界贸易组织。因此,2006年出口占国内生产总值的比例上升到35%,在20世纪90年代和21世纪初,中国经常是外国直接投资的最大接受国。显然,改革开放政策是中国过去几十年经济成功的最重要因素。改革政策不仅重新引入了激励工人和企业家努力工作的机制,而且采用了市场机制来分配资源。中国的对外开放政策使中国能够参与国际分工,并利用国际资本和技术优势。有利的外部环境对中国经济发展和对外开放也发挥了不可替代的作用。这主要体现在两个方面:一是1971年经济全球化的开始,二是中美关系的升温
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引用次数: 0
The impact of financial sanctions on the international monetary system 金融制裁对国际货币体系的影响
IF 3.3 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-08-30 DOI: 10.1080/17538963.2022.2118460
Qiyuan Xu, Aizong Xiong
ABSTRACT After the outbreak of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the United States and Europe have taken financial sanctions against Russia, which have had an important impact. The frequent use of financial sanctions has exacerbated the distrust of the dollar system in emerging markets and developing countries, and shaken the logic of the dollar and the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications (SWIFT) system as public goods of the international monetary system. However, the position of the US dollar and SWIFT is still hard to change. This does not mean that the international monetary system will remain the same forever. As the willingness to hold foreign exchange reserves declines, emerging markets and developing countries will either increase their tolerance of exchange rate volatility or implement more capital account regulation. Therefore, in the trend of de-globalization in the future, the international monetary system will turn out to be more volatile.
摘要俄乌冲突爆发后,美国和欧洲对俄罗斯实施金融制裁,产生了重要影响。金融制裁的频繁使用加剧了新兴市场和发展中国家对美元体系的不信任,动摇了美元和全球银行间金融电信协会作为国际货币体系公共产品的逻辑。然而,美元和SWIFT的立场仍然难以改变。这并不意味着国际货币体系将永远保持不变。随着持有外汇储备的意愿下降,新兴市场和发展中国家要么会提高对汇率波动的容忍度,要么会实施更多的资本账户监管。因此,在未来去全球化的趋势下,国际货币体系将更加动荡。
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引用次数: 5
For better or worse, in sickness and in health: Australia-China political relations and trade 无论是好是坏,疾病还是健康:澳中政治关系和贸易
IF 3.3 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-08-29 DOI: 10.1080/17538963.2022.2117180
Jane Golley, Vishesh Agarwal, J. Laurenceson, Tu Qiu
ABSTRACT This paper quantifies the effects of shocks in bilateral political relations on Australia’s merchandise goods exports to China between 2001 and 2020. Using a vector autoregression framework, our estimates suggest that short-term fluctuations in political relations have no long-run effects on Australia’s aggregate export growth to China over this period, nor in any of three sub-periods analysed. A disaggregated analysis of 19 HS2 sectors reveals heterogenous short-run effects across sectors and time periods, with numerous sectors indicating the seemingly perverse finding that an increase in political cooperation/conflict is associated with a decrease/increase in export growth, with a lag of one to four months. We propose two hypotheses that are consistent with these findings, ‘doubling down’ and ‘dropping the ball’, contributing new understanding to the political relations-trade nexus in the context of a bilateral relationship that will likely be characterised by both cooperation and conflict in the decades ahead.
本文量化了2001年至2020年间双边政治关系的冲击对澳大利亚对华商品出口的影响。使用向量自回归框架,我们的估计表明,政治关系的短期波动对这一时期澳大利亚对中国的出口总额增长没有长期影响,在分析的三个子时期中也没有。对高铁2号19个部门的分类分析揭示了跨部门和时间段的异质性短期影响,许多部门表明了一个看似反常的发现,即政治合作/冲突的增加与出口增长的减少/增加有关,滞后一到四个月。我们提出了两个与这些发现一致的假设,“加倍努力”和“放弃球”,在未来几十年可能以合作和冲突为特征的双边关系背景下,有助于对政治关系-贸易关系的新理解。
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引用次数: 7
Impacts of health insurance on health care utilization and health behaviors among older people in China 健康保险对中国老年人医疗保健利用和健康行为的影响
IF 3.3 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-06-27 DOI: 10.1080/17538963.2022.2094585
Qingyuan Xue, N. Witvorapong
ABSTRACT Using three waves of the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey in 2005, 2008–2009, and 2011–2012, this study investigates the effect of health insurance on health care utilization and health behaviors of older people in China. Enrollment in a health insurance program represents the main explanatory variable, while total health expenditures (THE), out-of-pocket expenditures (OOP), smoking, drinking and physical inactivity represent outcomes of interest. This study finds that health insurance is associated with an increase in THE and a reduction in OOP, suggesting that insurance enhances access to health services while reducing financial burden. The effects of insurance on health behaviors are complex, associated with increased probabilities of smoking and drinking and a decreased probability of physical inactivity. Results vary across age, education and residential location groups and across time, due to the fact that the health insurance system changed significantly during the study period.
摘要本研究采用2005年、2008–2009年和2011–2012年的三波中国纵向健康长寿调查,调查了健康保险对中国老年人医疗保健利用和健康行为的影响。参加健康保险计划是主要的解释变量,而总健康支出(the)、自付支出(OOP)、吸烟、饮酒和不运动则是感兴趣的结果。这项研究发现,医疗保险与THE的增加和OOP的减少有关,这表明保险在减少经济负担的同时,增加了获得医疗服务的机会。保险对健康行为的影响是复杂的,与吸烟和饮酒的可能性增加以及不运动的可能性降低有关。由于医疗保险制度在研究期间发生了重大变化,结果因年龄、教育程度和居住地点的不同而不同,也因时间的不同而有所不同。
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引用次数: 0
Is there a J-curve under COVID-19 effects COVID-19效应是否存在j曲线
IF 3.3 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-05-21 DOI: 10.1080/17538963.2022.2079194
Mortaza Ojaghlou, Erginbay Uğurlu
ABSTRACT Because of the outbreak of pandemic COVID-19, the economy and financial markets had a sharp decline. Also, based on the lockdown, we saw that amount of production and trade had decreased. This situation continues, and the effect on trade is still an important concern. In this paper, we investigate whether COVID-19 has an effect on trade by means of the real exchange rate in China-EU27 and China-USA. By using J-curve concept, for each trade partner, we use three models, which are ARDL, NARDL, and Multiplier NARDL, using three different data periods considering COVID-19. The results show that inverted J-Curve is proved with the long-run J-Curve effects for both partners, while COVID-19 makes factors favor J-Curve. Although J-Curve was inverted before the pandemic of COVID-9, during the COVID-19, we recognize the effect of J-Curve, which shows that the effect of real exchange rate on trade of China-EU27 and China-USA seems to favor China.
受新冠肺炎疫情影响,全球经济和金融市场大幅下滑。此外,在封锁的基础上,我们看到生产和贸易量有所减少。这种情况仍在继续,对贸易的影响仍然是一个重要的问题。本文通过中国-欧盟27国和中国-美国的实际汇率来考察COVID-19是否对贸易产生影响。通过j曲线概念,针对每个贸易伙伴,我们使用了三个模型,分别是ARDL、NARDL和Multiplier NARDL,使用了三个不同的数据期,考虑了COVID-19。结果表明:j曲线倒立,双方均存在长期j曲线效应,而COVID-19使因素有利于j曲线。虽然j曲线在新冠疫情前出现倒转,但在新冠疫情期间,我们认识到j曲线的效应,这表明实际汇率对中国-欧盟27国和中美贸易的影响似乎有利于中国。
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引用次数: 1
Data governance in China’s platform economy 中国平台经济中的数据治理
IF 3.3 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-05-04 DOI: 10.1080/17538963.2022.2068833
Yan Shen
ABSTRACT This paper aims to study China’s data governance policy in the platform economy through reviewing its evolvement, its current challenges, and then provide possible policy recommendations. We review China’s data governance policy to show that its focus has switched from security only, to ensure security but at the same time to facility data market so as to encourage the growth of digital economy. We then discuss the governance of data from three perspectives: as a factor of production, algorithm governance, and personal information protection and data security. We recommend the establishment of data governance committee to coordinate data governance issues, including data licensing and algorithm auditing processes.
摘要本文旨在通过回顾中国在平台经济中的数据治理政策的演变及其当前面临的挑战来研究中国的数据治理策略,并提出可能的政策建议。我们回顾了中国的数据治理政策,表明其重点已从仅关注安全,以确保安全,但同时也转向了便利数据市场,以鼓励数字经济的增长。然后,我们从三个角度讨论数据的治理:作为生产要素,算法治理,以及个人信息保护和数据安全。我们建议成立数据治理委员会来协调数据治理问题,包括数据许可和算法审计流程。
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引用次数: 1
Introduction to the special issue on platform economic in China 中国平台经济特刊简介
IF 3.3 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-05-04 DOI: 10.1080/17538963.2022.2070941
Yan Shen
The platform economy helps to improve the efficiency of resource allocation and has become a new driving force of China’s economic growth. However, as it has a natural tendency of getting more concentrated over time, deeply reconstructing industry structure, and inducing tremendous changes toward social life, platform anti-monopoly starts to become a significant issue of social concern. In particular, some of the practices in the platforms are against consumers’ interests, such as distorting search ranking for profit, using big data to discriminate consumers, and breaching personal privacy. In December 2020, China’s Central Economic Work Conference listed ‘strengthening antimonopoly and preventing disorderly capital expansion’ as one of the eight economic priorities for 2021, marking 2021 as the first year of strong anti-monopoly regulation in China. In January 2021, the People’s Bank of China released the ‘Regulations on Non-Bank Payment Institutions (Draft for Public Comments)’, the most notable of which are Article 55 ‘early warning measures for market dominance’, Article 56 ‘Identification of market dominant position’ and Article 57 ‘market dominance regulatory measures’. In February 2021, the General Administration of Market Regulation of China (GAMR) published the ‘Antimonopoly Guideline on the Platform Economy (Draft for Public Comments)’, which provides the criteria for regulatory authorities to prevent, identify, and correct monopolistic practices like refusal to deal, restrict trading and price discrimination. The most notable of the strong regulatory actions in 2021 were the antitrust penalties against Alibaba Group, one of China’s largest e-commerce platforms, and Meituan, an e-commerce platform that focuses on fast-food delivery and other daily life services. In April 2021, Alibaba was penalized by the State Administration of Market Supervision and Administration for having committed ‘restricting merchants to choose one between two competing platforms’ conduct, with a fine of 4% of its 2019 sales of RMB 457.512 billion in China, totaling RMB 18.228 billion. In October 2021, Meituan was penalized for abusing its dominant position in the market for online food and beverage take-out platform services within China. Meituan was required to refund merchants on the platform of 1.289 billion RMB deposits, and to pay a fine of 3% of its 2020 sales of 114.748 billion RMB, totaling 3.442 billion Yuan.
平台经济有助于提高资源配置效率,已成为中国经济增长的新动力。然而,随着时间的推移,平台反垄断有着越来越集中、深入重构行业结构、引发社会生活巨大变化的自然趋势,因此平台反垄断开始成为社会关注的重大问题。特别是,平台中的一些做法违背了消费者的利益,例如为了盈利而扭曲搜索排名,利用大数据歧视消费者,侵犯个人隐私。2020年12月,中国中央经济工作会议将“加强反垄断,防止资本无序扩张”列为2021年的八大经济重点之一,标志着2021年成为中国反垄断监管有力的第一年。2021年1月,中国人民银行发布了《非银行支付机构条例(公开征求意见稿)》,其中最引人注目的是第五十五条“市场支配地位预警措施”、第五十六条“市场主导地位认定”和第五十七条“市场支配地位监管措施”。2021年2月,中国市场监管总局发布了《平台经济反垄断指引(征求意见稿)》,为监管部门预防、识别和纠正拒绝交易、限制交易和价格歧视等垄断行为提供了标准。2021年最引人注目的严厉监管行动是对中国最大的电子商务平台之一阿里巴巴集团和专注于快餐配送和其他日常生活服务的电子商务巨头美团的反垄断处罚。2021年4月,阿里巴巴因“限制商家在两个竞争平台中选择一个”的行为被国家市场监督管理总局处罚,罚款占其2019年在中国销售额4575.12亿元的4%,总计182.28亿元。2021年10月,美团因滥用其在中国在线餐饮外卖平台服务市场的主导地位而受到处罚。美团被要求向平台上的商家退还12.89亿元押金,并支付其2020年1147.48亿元销售额的3%的罚款,共计34.42亿元。
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引用次数: 0
‘Strong regulations’ of China’s platform economy: a preliminary assessment 中国平台经济的“强监管”:初步评估
IF 3.3 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-05-04 DOI: 10.1080/17538963.2022.2067687
Yiping Huang
ABSTRACT Within two decades, China built a very large platform economy. From the beginning of 2021, however, the Chinese government started to implement a set of new policies, popularly known as ‘strong regulations’, in order to correct improper platform behavior and improve market efficiency. These policies caused some negative effects on short-term momentum of the platform economy, including lay-offs of employees, decline of investment, and shrinkage of market valuation. This paper attempts to address the following questions: why did the authorities initiate this new policy? what are its net impacts on the platform economy? and how can the regulators do better? While acknowledging the urgent need for proper regulations for China’s platform economy, this paper argues that the authorities should find a better balance between regulation and development, with innovative thinking in dealing with issues such exclusive agreement, differential pricing and monopoly.
在20年的时间里,中国建立了一个非常庞大的平台经济。然而,从2021年初开始,中国政府开始实施一套新的政策,俗称“强监管”,以纠正不当的平台行为,提高市场效率。这些政策对平台经济的短期势头造成了一些负面影响,包括员工裁员、投资减少、市场估值缩水等。本文试图回答以下问题:当局为什么要启动这项新政策?它对平台经济的净影响是什么?监管机构如何才能做得更好?在承认中国平台经济迫切需要适当监管的同时,本文认为当局应该在监管与发展之间找到更好的平衡,以创新的思维处理排他性协议、差别定价和垄断等问题。
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引用次数: 4
期刊
China Economic Journal
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