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Tests of goods market integration between China and European countries: a nonlinear nonparametric approach 中国与欧洲国家商品市场一体化的检验:一个非线性非参数方法
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-11-13 DOI: 10.1080/17538963.2023.2277976
Shu-Kam Lee, Lubanski Lam, Kai-Yin Woo
ABSTRACTThe validity of purchasing power parity (PPP) between two economies implies goods markets of the two are well integrated. This is a pre-condition for further economic convergence. This study examines validity of the PPP between China and European countries. Since the functional form of the cointegrating relationship may not be exact or linear, we adopt the nonparametric rank tests for analysis, without prior specification of the functional form. We also address the rank problems that occur in multivariate rank tests. The results indicate strong support for nonlinear PPP relationships between China and European countries, especially during the second subsample period. This indicates China’s rising economic power, particularly in the most recent decade. Although there have been disputes between China and Europe, these results suggest favorable prospects for closer economic cooperation between the two sides and the need for formulation of common policies to pursue an integrated market in the future.KEYWORDS: PPPrank testChinaEuropeJEL CLASSIFICATION: C10F41 AcknowledgmentsWe gratefully acknowledge advice from editors and anonymous referees. The responsibility lies with the authors.Disclosure statementNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).Notes1. 18 out of 27 EU countries have signed the BRI MOU (Memorandum of Understanding) up to March 2022. 6 of them (Austria, Cyprus, Italy, Greece, Luxembourg and Portugal) are in Western Europe. The others are from East and Central Europe. There are also non-EU BRI members in Europe such as Albania, Serbia and Turkey.2. PPP testing with the mixture of structural breaks and smooth transition adjustments is found in, for example, Bahmani-Oskooee, et al. (Citation2013) and He et al. (Citation2014).3. The UK officially left the EU on 31 January 2020, but the UK and EU agreed to keep many things the same until 31 December 2020, to allow enough time to agree to the terms of a new trade deal (https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-32810887). In this paper, the UK is still considered an EU member in the sample period.4. Refer to the official website of the European Union available at: https://ec.europa.eu/info/euro-0_en for more details on adoption of the Euro.5. The results for Model A (unreported) indicate weak evidence of cointegration, and this may be due to the rank problem.6. The functional form for Model B becomes f1(pt) =get+ f2pt∗+ ut.7. Other divisions of subsamples applied to the data can be found in Table 4.8. For Ireland, PPP is rejected during the full and the first subsample but is accepted in the second subsample.9. The BRI countries in our sample that have PPP with China include Austria, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Portugal, Hungary, Albania, Serbia and Turkey only.Additional informationFundingThis work was supported by the Research Grants Council, University Grants Committee of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (UGC/FDS15/B06/20). The responsibility lie
摘要两个经济体之间购买力平价(PPP)的有效性意味着两个经济体的商品市场整合良好。这是经济进一步趋同的先决条件。本研究考察了中国与欧洲国家购买力平价的有效性。由于协整关系的函数形式可能不是精确的或线性的,因此我们采用非参数秩检验进行分析,而不事先说明函数形式。我们还解决了在多变量秩检验中出现的秩问题。结果表明,中国和欧洲国家之间的PPP关系是非线性的,特别是在第二个子样本期间。这表明中国的经济实力正在上升,尤其是在最近十年。尽管中国和欧洲之间一直存在争议,但这些结果表明,双方更密切的经济合作前景良好,并且需要制定共同政策,以追求未来的一体化市场。关键词:pp恶作剧测试中国欧洲jel分类:C10F41致谢感谢编辑和匿名审稿人的建议。责任在于作者。披露声明作者未报告潜在的利益冲突。截至2022年3月,27个欧盟国家中有18个签署了“一带一路”谅解备忘录。其中6个国家(奥地利、塞浦路斯、意大利、希腊、卢森堡和葡萄牙)位于西欧。其他的来自东欧和中欧。在欧洲,也有阿尔巴尼亚、塞尔维亚、土耳其等非欧盟国家加入“一带一路”倡议。例如,Bahmani-Oskooee等人(Citation2013)和He等人(Citation2014)在PPP测试中发现了结构断裂和平稳过渡调整的混合。英国于2020年1月31日正式离开欧盟,但英国和欧盟同意在2020年12月31日之前保持许多事情不变,以便有足够的时间就新贸易协议的条款达成一致(https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-32810887)。在本文中,英国在样本期内仍然被认为是欧盟成员国。请参阅欧盟的官方网站:https://ec.europa.eu/info/euro-0_en,了解更多关于采用Euro.5的细节。模型A的结果(未报告)表明协整的弱证据,这可能是由于秩问题。模型B的函数形式为f1(pt) =get+ f2pt * + ut.7。应用于数据的子样本的其他划分见表4.8。对于爱尔兰,PPP在完整和第一个子样本中被拒绝,但在第二个子样本中被接受。在我们的样本中,与中国有PPP关系的一带一路国家包括奥地利、意大利、拉脱维亚、立陶宛、卢森堡、葡萄牙、匈牙利、阿尔巴尼亚、塞尔维亚和土耳其。其他资料资助本研究获香港特别行政区大学教育资助委员会研究资助局资助(UGC/FDS15/B06/20)。责任在于作者。
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引用次数: 0
The valuation effect of going International: evidence from QDII in China “走出去”的估值效应:来自中国QDII的证据
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-11-03 DOI: 10.1080/17538963.2023.2277977
Zirun Wu, Jingwen Yu
ABSTRACTThis paper attempts to evaluate the valuation effect of deregulation policy on capital outflows by an event study approach. Using the policy announcement of Qualified Domestic Institutional Investor (QDII) and Bond Connect in China, we find a short-term valuation effect that the stock market responds negatively to the deregulation on capital outflows and firm’s size could act as a shield to defend this shock. Moreover, the financially constrained firms are more negatively affected by this policy shock, suggesting that financial vulnerability is an important force driving down the stock valuation. Finally, both the quality of corporate governance and bureaucratic quality of local government could help firms to avoid valuation loss from this policy shock especially those with tight financial constraints.KEYWORDS: Capital controlscapital outflowsChinese economyvaluation effectJEL CLASSIFICATION: F32F42G32 Disclosure statementNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).Notes1. https://xueqiu.com/7552001880/163183133.2. We use the minor deregulation events for the robustness check in the following analysis.3. CSI 300 Index aiming to reflect the overall performance of China A-share market consists of the 300 largest and most liquid A-share stocks.4. SSE 50 Index selects 50 largest stocks of good liquidity and representativeness from Shanghai security market. The objective is to reflect the complete picture of those good quality large enterprises, which are most influential in Shanghai security market.Additional informationFundingNational Natural Science Foundation of China (72373112, 72073102). Major Program of the National Social Science Foundation of China(23ZDA037).
摘要本文试图用事件研究的方法来评估放松管制政策对资本外流的估值效应。利用中国合格境内机构投资者(QDII)和债券通的政策公告,我们发现了短期估值效应,即股票市场对资本外流管制的负面反应和公司规模可以作为防御这种冲击的盾牌。此外,财务受限的公司受到政策冲击的负面影响更大,这表明财务脆弱性是压低股票估值的重要力量。最后,公司治理质量和地方政府的官僚主义质量都可以帮助企业避免这种政策冲击带来的估值损失,特别是那些资金紧张的企业。关键词:资本控制资本外流中国经济估值效应jel分类:F32F42G32披露声明作者未报告潜在利益冲突。https://xueqiu.com/7552001880/163183133.2。在接下来的分析中,我们使用较小的放松管制事件进行稳健性检查。沪深300指数旨在反映中国a股市场的整体表现,由300只规模最大、流动性最强的a股股票组成。上证50指数从上海证券市场中选取流动性和代表性最大的50只股票。目的是反映上海证券市场中最具影响力的优质大型企业的全貌。国家自然科学基金项目(72373112,72073102)。国家社会科学基金重大项目(23ZDA037)。
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引用次数: 0
Digital transformation and corporate performance: evidence from China 数字化转型与企业绩效:来自中国的证据
IF 3.3 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-09-02 DOI: 10.1080/17538963.2023.2254138
Shiguang Li, Zheng Yang, Yixiang Tian
ABSTRACT This study measures the enterprise digitalization index and investigates the relationship between digital transformation and corporate performance. The rapid development of digital technologies has transformed enterprise in significant ways. The main challenge in examining the impact of digital transformation is the lack of firm-level data. We use the method of text analysis to construct an enterprise digitalization index based on annual reports of listed companies in China during 2012–2018. We find that Enterprise digital transformation improves corporate performance. This holds in particular for non-state-owned firms and companies from service industries. Moreover, digital transformation enhances corporate performance by improving employee efficiency. The findings offer important policy implications for promoting digital economy in China.
摘要本研究测量企业数字化指数,探讨数字化转型与企业绩效之间的关系。数字技术的快速发展已经在很大程度上改变了企业。研究数字化转型影响的主要挑战是缺乏公司层面的数据。本文以2012-2018年中国上市公司年报为基础,运用文本分析法构建企业数字化指数。我们发现企业数字化转型提高了企业绩效。这对非国有企业和服务行业的公司尤其适用。此外,数字化转型通过提高员工效率来提高企业绩效。研究结果为促进中国数字经济发展提供了重要的政策启示。
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引用次数: 0
Impacts of population aging on the quantity and quality of pharmaceutical innovation: evidence from OECD countries 人口老龄化对医药创新数量和质量的影响:来自经合组织国家的证据
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-09-02 DOI: 10.1080/17538963.2023.2254144
Ke Shen, Zhenyi Huang
Against the backdrop of rapid population aging, we examine the impacts of population aging on pharmaceutical innovation based on the panel data of OECD countries between 1997 and 2018. We show that population aging effectively boosts the quantity and quality of pharmaceutical innovation before the share of older adults approaches 14%, the threshold for the aged society. Once the country enters the aged society, however, population aging is no longer associated with the quantity of pharmaceutical patents, and even significantly depresses the quality of patenting. Moreover, the type of welfare state regimes plays a notable moderating role. High welfare states could effectively amplify the positive effects of aging or attenuate the negative impacts of aging on pharmaceutical innovation. Our results suggest that the dividend of aging in pharmaceutical industry does exist in the early stage of aging, and the government needs to plan ahead to ameliorate the deterioration of innovation in aged and super-aged societies.
在人口快速老龄化背景下,基于1997 - 2018年经合组织国家面板数据,研究了人口老龄化对医药创新的影响。研究表明,在老年人比例接近老龄化社会门槛14%之前,人口老龄化有效提升了医药创新的数量和质量。然而,一旦国家进入老龄化社会,人口老龄化与药品专利数量不再相关,甚至显著抑制了专利质量。此外,福利国家制度的类型起着显著的调节作用。高福利国家可以有效地放大老龄化对药物创新的积极影响或减弱老龄化对药物创新的负面影响。研究结果表明,在老龄化初期,医药产业的老龄化红利确实存在,政府需要提前规划,以改善老龄化和超老龄化社会的创新恶化。
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引用次数: 0
Digital economy and carbon emission reduction: evidence from China 数字经济与碳减排:来自中国的证据
IF 3.3 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-08-23 DOI: 10.1080/17538963.2023.2244276
Dong Feng, Yan Shen, Xuanli Xie, Yiping Huang
ABSTRACT China confronts a challenging dilemma between environmental protection and economic development as it endeavors to achieve dual carbon goals. To discern a feasible developmental path, this paper designs a comprehensive index of the digital economy encompassing four dimensions: input, production, output, and consumption, conducts an empirical analysis to explore the relationship between the digital economy and carbon emissions by using a two-way fixed effect model with China’s provincial data from 2013 to 2019, and suggests that the digital economy can significantly reduce carbon emissions and carbon intensity. Public low carbon awareness and green innovation are mechanisms that mediate the association between the digital economy and carbon emissions. The carbon reduction effect varies across dimensions of the digital economy, regions, and sources of carbon emissions. These empirical findings provide valuable insights and policy implications to effectively achieve China’s dual carbon goals.
摘要中国在努力实现双碳目标的过程中,面临着环境保护和经济发展之间的两难选择。为了找到一条可行的发展路径,本文设计了一个包含投入、生产、产出和消费四个维度的数字经济综合指数,并利用双向固定效应模型和中国2013-2019年的省级数据进行实证分析,探讨数字经济与碳排放的关系,并表明数字经济可以显著降低碳排放和碳强度。公众的低碳意识和绿色创新是调解数字经济与碳排放之间联系的机制。碳减排效果因数字经济、地区和碳排放源的不同而不同。这些实证结果为有效实现中国的双碳目标提供了宝贵的见解和政策启示。
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引用次数: 0
Coordinated economic, energy and environment development across China from 2001 to 2020 2001年至2020年中国经济、能源和环境协调发展
IF 3.3 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-08-23 DOI: 10.1080/17538963.2023.2250638
Wen-Wen Zhang, B. Sharp, Bin Zhao, Yu Gu, Nan-Xi Fang, Yuetong Hu, Yang Ma, Xin-Chen Shi, Li-jun Liu, Sheng-Yue Li, Shu-xiao Wang, Ya-Zhou Liu
ABSTRACT With the development of China’s economy, the contradiction between energy, economy and ecological environment is becoming more and more prominent. However, the spatial and temporal evolution of the contradiction system of energy, economy and environment all over China is rarely focused on. This study assesses the provincial coordinated degree of the economy-energy-environment system over the period of 2001–2020 and analyzes their spatial and temporal evolution using principal component analysis (PCA), a coordination degree model, non-parametric Kernel Density Estimation (KDE), and spatial correlation analysis approaches. Results show that provincial coordination degrees from 2001 to 2020 vary between ‘barely balanced’ and ‘superiorly balanced’ with an overall improvement. However, the gap between high and low regional coordination has widen, while middle-level provinces gradually increase and are distributed more evenly. Limited spatial correlation of provincial coordination exists and the clustering level slightly increases over 2001–2020. Additionally, some less-developed regions, which are still staying at the ‘intermediately balanced’ state in 2020, call for attention.
随着中国经济的发展,能源、经济与生态环境之间的矛盾日益突出。然而,对中国能源、经济和环境矛盾系统的时空演变研究却很少。利用主成分分析(PCA)、协调度模型、非参数核密度估计(KDE)和空间相关分析等方法,对2001-2020年中国各省经济-能源-环境系统协调度进行了评价,并分析了其时空演变特征。结果表明:2001 - 2020年,各省协调度在“勉强平衡”和“较好平衡”之间变化,总体上有所改善;但高、低区域协调差距不断扩大,中等水平省份逐渐增多,分布更加均匀。2001-2020年,省际协调存在有限的空间相关性,集聚程度略有上升。此外,一些欠发达地区在2020年仍停留在“中等平衡”状态,值得关注。
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引用次数: 0
Macroeconomic implications of China’s dual carbon goals 中国双碳目标的宏观经济影响
IF 3.3 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-08-04 DOI: 10.1080/17538963.2023.2244280
Xiaobei He
ABSTRACT The ‘dual carbon’ goals are set to reshape China’s industrial landscape and impact the economy as a whole. This paper briefly discusses the channels through which climate polices may affect the economic growth, and then provides a quantitative analysis of the economic impacts of China’s climate polices using a global dynamic CGE model. The simulation results of different policy scenarios suggest that climate policies will have negative impacts on China’s investment and export by raising the costs of prodcution, but the aggregate impact on China’s output will generally be mild. Nonetheless, other countries’ climate policies may have meaningful spillover effects on China’s economy through the trade channels and China should lead or participate in the international coordination on climate policies to be better placed to achieve the ‘dual carbon’ goals.
摘要“双碳”目标旨在重塑中国的工业格局,影响整个经济。本文简要讨论了气候政策影响经济增长的渠道,然后利用全球动态CGE模型对中国气候政策的经济影响进行了定量分析。不同政策情景的模拟结果表明,气候政策会通过提高生产成本对中国的投资和出口产生负面影响,但对中国产出的总体影响通常是温和的。尽管如此,其他国家的气候政策可能会通过贸易渠道对中国经济产生有意义的溢出效应,中国应该领导或参与气候政策的国际协调,以便更好地实现“双碳”目标。
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引用次数: 0
The heterogeneous effect of administrative level of cities on energy efficiency: a panel study of China 城市行政级别对能源效率的异质性影响——基于中国的面板研究
IF 3.3 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-06-29 DOI: 10.1080/17538963.2023.2230403
Daqian Shi, Kai-Chien Hu
ABSTRACT Although the nexus between urbanization and energy efficiency has been evidenced at the macro level, we have less knowledge about the effects of administrative level of cities on energy efficiency. Understanding this impact mechanism is necessary to achieve goals of energy conservation and sustainable development. We estimate the relationship between the administrative level of cities and energy efficiency in China by adopting the province-level fixed-effect models from a panel dataset. The empirical findings present that energy efficiency of capital cities is 0.46 (95% Confidence Interval: −0.713, −0.206) lower than that of general cities. Moreover, these effects of administrative level are more substantial in underdeveloped cities. These findings suggest that more political sources and autonomy in the higher-level cities might lead to low energy efficiency.
虽然城市化与能源效率之间的关系已经在宏观层面得到证实,但我们对城市行政级别对能源效率的影响知之甚少。了解这种影响机制对于实现节能和可持续发展的目标是必要的。本文采用面板数据集的省级固定效应模型,对中国城市行政级别与能源效率之间的关系进行了估计。实证结果表明,首都城市的能源效率比一般城市低0.46(95%置信区间:- 0.713,- 0.206)。此外,行政级别的影响在欠发达城市更为显著。这些发现表明,更多的政治来源和更高层次的城市自治可能导致低能源效率。
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引用次数: 0
Introduction by the guest editor 特邀编辑介绍
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-05-04 DOI: 10.1080/17538963.2023.2253630
Jintao Xu
Papers in this special issue are works resulted from a research project organized at the National School of Development, Peking University, and sponsored by the Energy Foundation (China). The motivation of these works is simple: Climate change in China has been evolving over time as a diplomatic issue, a scientific issue and a political issue. As China adopts a ‘Dual Carbon’ goal for the future four to five decades, it has become a major economic issue as it is at the core of China’s economic growth pattern change and will be the deciding factor in allocating economic resources for the society in near to mid-term future. The tremendous importance of the ‘Dual Carbon’ goals on China’s economic development path calls for greater analytical efforts from mainstream economists. What will be true cost of climate change on Chinese society? What is the size of economic resource needed to achieve the ‘Dual Carbon’ goal as conforming to the international community’s common pursuits toward 1.5 degree control target? Will climate action be synergic to China’s other socio-economic goals, such as poverty alleviation, healthy aging society, etc.? What kind of structural changes are needed to reduce carbon emissions in the most efficient and effective way? What are the implications of energy transition? On energy security? On employment? On cost of the transition and burden sharing? What kind of carbon removal technology is viable to provide low-cost offset to the remaining carbon emitted around 2060? What kind of policy mix should be in place to ensure long-term and steady change in the economy toward the accomplishment of the ‘Dual Carbon’ goals? These questions must be answered by the best economists that China has. The National School of Development (NSD) of Peking University is the top think tank in China basing its work on modern economic theory and methodology. It has built an international reputation in the studies of labor, health, digital, political and development, as well as environmental and energy economics. This project features contributions from NSD’s leading economists who used to focus on labor and health issues, digital economy, political economy and all important aspects of energy and climate economics. They use diversified tools to address their respective questions and have produced diversified and insightful outcomes for this project. In total 13 very interesting papers have been produced. This special issue selects six papers, only half of the works out of the project, due to the size limitation of one issue of the journal. In this selection, we try to first limit the general scope to more basic side of climate change economics, namely the understanding of
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引用次数: 0
Development of the electric vehicle industry in China 中国电动汽车产业的发展
IF 3.3 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-05-04 DOI: 10.1080/17538963.2023.2244279
Jianwei Xing, Xiyuan Liu, Yushuai Zhang
ABSTRACT The electrification of the transportation sector is a pivotal strategy to curb carbon emissions from traditional fossil fuel-powered vehicles. China, the world’s largest electric vehicle (EV) market, leads this transformative shift. This paper aims to unravel the past decade’s development story of the EV industry in China. We first provide a comprehensive overview of the EV development trend in China, including analysis of market structures, regional development variations, technology advancements, and the development of the essential infrastructure. We then summarize the different forms of subsidy programs, both monetary and non-monetary, designed to promote EV at both central and local levels, and evaluate the effectiveness of these programs and their contribution to reducing carbon emissions. We conclude by highlighting key aspects that could enhance the efficiency of subsidy programs and further propel the development of the EV industry.
摘要交通部门的电气化是遏制传统化石燃料汽车碳排放的关键战略。作为全球最大的电动汽车市场,中国引领着这一变革性转变。本文旨在揭示中国电动汽车行业过去十年的发展历程。我们首先全面概述了中国电动汽车的发展趋势,包括对市场结构、区域发展变化、技术进步和基本基础设施发展的分析。然后,我们总结了旨在在中央和地方层面推广电动汽车的不同形式的补贴计划,包括货币和非货币补贴计划,并评估了这些计划的有效性及其对减少碳排放的贡献。最后,我们强调了可以提高补贴计划效率并进一步推动电动汽车行业发展的关键方面。
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引用次数: 0
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China Economic Journal
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