首页 > 最新文献

China Economic Journal最新文献

英文 中文
Long-term forecast and policy discussion on China’s carbon emissions 中国碳排放的长期预测与政策探讨
IF 3.3 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-05-04 DOI: 10.1080/17538963.2023.2244278
Min Wang
ABSTRACT By decomposing the changes of carbon emissions into effects of economic growth, industrial structural change, technological change and energy structure change, the paper firstly discusses the contribution of each effect to China’s carbon emission changes between 2020 and 2030, and forecasts China’s total carbon emissions in 2030. In particular, the paper strengthens that a decrease in population and a significant slowdown in urbanization will significantly reduce the construction demand, the main driver for high growth of carbon emissions in China, and provide a relatively favorable economic environment for China to achieve carbon peaking by 2030. The paper then discusses on how to achieve the ”dual carbon” goals with the lowest possible economic cost by relying on market and price mechanisms.
摘要通过将碳排放的变化分解为经济增长、产业结构变化、技术变革和能源结构变化的影响,本文首先讨论了2020-2030年各影响对中国碳排放变化的贡献,并预测了2030年中国碳排放总量。特别是,文章强调,人口减少和城市化进程显著放缓将显著降低建筑需求,这是中国碳排放高增长的主要驱动力,并为中国在2030年前实现碳达峰提供相对有利的经济环境。然后,本文讨论了如何依靠市场和价格机制,以尽可能低的经济成本实现“双碳”目标。
{"title":"Long-term forecast and policy discussion on China’s carbon emissions","authors":"Min Wang","doi":"10.1080/17538963.2023.2244278","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17538963.2023.2244278","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT By decomposing the changes of carbon emissions into effects of economic growth, industrial structural change, technological change and energy structure change, the paper firstly discusses the contribution of each effect to China’s carbon emission changes between 2020 and 2030, and forecasts China’s total carbon emissions in 2030. In particular, the paper strengthens that a decrease in population and a significant slowdown in urbanization will significantly reduce the construction demand, the main driver for high growth of carbon emissions in China, and provide a relatively favorable economic environment for China to achieve carbon peaking by 2030. The paper then discusses on how to achieve the ”dual carbon” goals with the lowest possible economic cost by relying on market and price mechanisms.","PeriodicalId":45279,"journal":{"name":"China Economic Journal","volume":"16 1","pages":"104 - 120"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2023-05-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44053081","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The potential of China’s ecosystems in meeting the carbon neutrality goal: evidence from the forest sector 中国生态系统在实现碳中和目标方面的潜力:来自森林部门的证据
IF 3.3 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-05-04 DOI: 10.1080/17538963.2023.2244277
Yuanyuan Yi, Jintao Xu
ABSTRACT Forest carbon sequestration has great potential for climate change mitigation. We show the cost-effectiveness of using forests as Nature-based Solutions pathways that offset carbon dioxide (CO2). Afforestation and reforestation expand forest cover, sustainable forest management increases forest productivity, and substituting carbon-intensive materials with wood products avoids the CO2 emitted in the production processes of these materials. In terms of these activities, we estimate that China’s total forest carbon sequestration potential will reach 2.4 billion tons of CO2 in 2050. Scenario analysis shows that the carbon sequestered by the forests in 2050 helps China meet its goal of carbon neutrality or net zero emissions.
摘要森林固碳在减缓气候变化方面具有巨大潜力。我们展示了将森林作为抵消二氧化碳(CO2)的基于自然的解决方案途径的成本效益。植树造林和重新造林扩大了森林覆盖率,可持续森林管理提高了森林生产力,用木制品替代碳密集型材料避免了这些材料生产过程中排放的二氧化碳。就这些活动而言,我们估计,到2050年,中国的森林固碳潜力将达到24亿吨二氧化碳。情景分析表明,2050年森林固存的碳有助于中国实现碳中和或净零排放的目标。
{"title":"The potential of China’s ecosystems in meeting the carbon neutrality goal: evidence from the forest sector","authors":"Yuanyuan Yi, Jintao Xu","doi":"10.1080/17538963.2023.2244277","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17538963.2023.2244277","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Forest carbon sequestration has great potential for climate change mitigation. We show the cost-effectiveness of using forests as Nature-based Solutions pathways that offset carbon dioxide (CO2). Afforestation and reforestation expand forest cover, sustainable forest management increases forest productivity, and substituting carbon-intensive materials with wood products avoids the CO2 emitted in the production processes of these materials. In terms of these activities, we estimate that China’s total forest carbon sequestration potential will reach 2.4 billion tons of CO2 in 2050. Scenario analysis shows that the carbon sequestered by the forests in 2050 helps China meet its goal of carbon neutrality or net zero emissions.","PeriodicalId":45279,"journal":{"name":"China Economic Journal","volume":"16 1","pages":"185 - 202"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2023-05-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49331848","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Estimating the CO2 marginal abatement cost and implications for climate policies in China’s industrial sector: A firm-level analysis 中国工业部门二氧化碳边际减排成本估算及其对气候政策的影响:一个企业层面的分析
IF 3.3 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-05-04 DOI: 10.1080/17538963.2023.2244281
Xing Chen, Xuan Wang, Tianyang Xi, Jintao Xu
ABSTRACT This paper presents an in-depth analysis of the Marginal Abatement Cost Curve (MACC) for CO2 of China’s industrial sector. Leveraging comprehensive firm-level panel data spanning the period 2011–2015, we employ a parameterized directional output distance function to estimate the shadow price of CO2. By doing so, we derive the marginal abatement cost for individual firms across different years, which provides crucial insights into two fundamental aspects: first, the variation in shadow prices as indicators of the economic efficiency of existing climate policies; and second, the carbon price levels necessary to achieve CO2 mitigation targets in the future. Furthermore, we conduct scenario simulations to assess the potential industrial output loss resulting from forthcoming carbon policies, such as the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). Our findings underscore the necessity for a considerably higher tax rate to stimulate pollution reduction in order to meet the desired emission targets.
摘要本文对中国工业部门二氧化碳边际减排成本曲线(MACC)进行了深入分析。利用2011-2015年期间的综合企业层面面板数据,我们采用参数化定向输出距离函数来估计二氧化碳的影子价格。通过这样做,我们得出了各个公司在不同年份的边际减排成本,这为两个基本方面提供了重要的见解:首先,影子价格的变化作为现有气候政策经济效率的指标;第二,实现未来二氧化碳减排目标所需的碳价格水平。此外,我们还进行了情景模拟,以评估即将出台的碳政策(如欧盟的碳边界调整机制(CBAM))造成的潜在工业产出损失。我们的研究结果强调,为了达到预期的排放目标,有必要大幅提高税率,以刺激减少污染。
{"title":"Estimating the CO2 marginal abatement cost and implications for climate policies in China’s industrial sector: A firm-level analysis","authors":"Xing Chen, Xuan Wang, Tianyang Xi, Jintao Xu","doi":"10.1080/17538963.2023.2244281","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17538963.2023.2244281","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT This paper presents an in-depth analysis of the Marginal Abatement Cost Curve (MACC) for CO2 of China’s industrial sector. Leveraging comprehensive firm-level panel data spanning the period 2011–2015, we employ a parameterized directional output distance function to estimate the shadow price of CO2. By doing so, we derive the marginal abatement cost for individual firms across different years, which provides crucial insights into two fundamental aspects: first, the variation in shadow prices as indicators of the economic efficiency of existing climate policies; and second, the carbon price levels necessary to achieve CO2 mitigation targets in the future. Furthermore, we conduct scenario simulations to assess the potential industrial output loss resulting from forthcoming carbon policies, such as the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). Our findings underscore the necessity for a considerably higher tax rate to stimulate pollution reduction in order to meet the desired emission targets.","PeriodicalId":45279,"journal":{"name":"China Economic Journal","volume":"16 1","pages":"217 - 239"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2023-05-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42438106","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A portrait of China’s economic transformation: from manufacturing to services 中国经济转型的写照:从制造业到服务业
IF 3.3 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/17538963.2023.2163463
Bin Zhang, He Zhu, Jiajia Zhang
ABSTRACT The Chinese economy marked a turning point around 2010 to 2012, with economic growth, expenditure structure, industrial structure, and other macroeconomic indicators running counter to their earlier trends. There was a common cause behind all the changes: economic transformation from manufacturing to services. Starting with saturation in demand for manufactured goods, household consumption began to shift toward more human capital – intensive services, which led to a chain of effects in the industrial structure, slower economic growth, altered labor flows, as well as changes in the features of the business cycle. Compared with other high-income economies when they were at a similar development stage, China’s economic transformation from manufacturing to services has been the standard practice.
摘要2010年至2012年,中国经济出现转折,经济增长、支出结构、产业结构和其他宏观经济指标与之前的趋势背道而驰。所有这些变化背后都有一个共同的原因:从制造业到服务业的经济转型。从制成品需求饱和开始,家庭消费开始转向人力资本密集型服务,这导致了产业结构的一系列影响、经济增长放缓、劳动力流动改变以及商业周期特征的变化。与处于类似发展阶段的其他高收入经济体相比,中国从制造业向服务业的经济转型一直是标准做法。
{"title":"A portrait of China’s economic transformation: from manufacturing to services","authors":"Bin Zhang, He Zhu, Jiajia Zhang","doi":"10.1080/17538963.2023.2163463","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17538963.2023.2163463","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT The Chinese economy marked a turning point around 2010 to 2012, with economic growth, expenditure structure, industrial structure, and other macroeconomic indicators running counter to their earlier trends. There was a common cause behind all the changes: economic transformation from manufacturing to services. Starting with saturation in demand for manufactured goods, household consumption began to shift toward more human capital – intensive services, which led to a chain of effects in the industrial structure, slower economic growth, altered labor flows, as well as changes in the features of the business cycle. Compared with other high-income economies when they were at a similar development stage, China’s economic transformation from manufacturing to services has been the standard practice.","PeriodicalId":45279,"journal":{"name":"China Economic Journal","volume":"16 1","pages":"14 - 27"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2023-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45067068","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Understanding China’s road to common prosperity: background, definition and path 理解中国的共同富裕之路:背景、定义和路径
IF 3.3 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/17538963.2023.2164950
Shiyun Li
ABSTRACT China’s ambition to realize common prosperity for all the people has received worldwide attention since its complete victory over extreme poverty in 2020. This paper summarizes for the first time the “who, what, when and how” that essentially characterizes common prosperity, i.e. common prosperity is prosperity for all the people, is prosperity in all aspects, means step-wise prosperity and calls for joint contribution, and clarifies that it is not equivalent to “becoming rich at the same time” or “being equally well off”, nor is it the same thing as egalitarianism. Contemporary China faces challenges including the development challenge, the distribution problem and the public products supply issue in achieving this long-term goal. Possible solutions may be fostering high-quality development, optimizing income distribution, strengthening the social safety net, achieving effective digital governance and promoting high-level opening-up.
摘要自2020年中国彻底战胜极端贫困以来,实现全体人民共同富裕的雄心受到了全世界的关注。本文首次总结了共同富裕的本质特征“谁、什么、何时、如何”,即共同富裕是全体人民的富裕,是各方面的富裕,意味着逐步富裕,要求共同贡献,并阐明它不等同于“同时富裕”或“同样富裕”,这与平等主义也不是一回事。当代中国在实现这一长期目标方面面临的挑战包括发展挑战、分配问题和公共产品供应问题。可能的解决方案可能是促进高质量发展、优化收入分配、加强社会安全网、实现有效的数字治理和促进高水平开放。
{"title":"Understanding China’s road to common prosperity: background, definition and path","authors":"Shiyun Li","doi":"10.1080/17538963.2023.2164950","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17538963.2023.2164950","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT China’s ambition to realize common prosperity for all the people has received worldwide attention since its complete victory over extreme poverty in 2020. This paper summarizes for the first time the “who, what, when and how” that essentially characterizes common prosperity, i.e. common prosperity is prosperity for all the people, is prosperity in all aspects, means step-wise prosperity and calls for joint contribution, and clarifies that it is not equivalent to “becoming rich at the same time” or “being equally well off”, nor is it the same thing as egalitarianism. Contemporary China faces challenges including the development challenge, the distribution problem and the public products supply issue in achieving this long-term goal. Possible solutions may be fostering high-quality development, optimizing income distribution, strengthening the social safety net, achieving effective digital governance and promoting high-level opening-up.","PeriodicalId":45279,"journal":{"name":"China Economic Journal","volume":"16 1","pages":"1 - 13"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2023-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44521590","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
Statement of Retraction: Why did they get in trouble? The influence of firm characteristics and institutional distance in the case of Chinese outward foreign direct investment 撤回声明:他们为什么会陷入麻烦?企业特征和制度距离对中国对外直接投资的影响
IF 3.3 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-11-15 DOI: 10.1080/17538963.2022.2145629
{"title":"Statement of Retraction: Why did they get in trouble? The influence of firm characteristics and institutional distance in the case of Chinese outward foreign direct investment","authors":"","doi":"10.1080/17538963.2022.2145629","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17538963.2022.2145629","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":45279,"journal":{"name":"China Economic Journal","volume":"16 1","pages":"100 - 100"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2022-11-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46565067","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The international monetary system: evolution and revolution 国际货币体系:演变与革命
IF 3.3 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-09-02 DOI: 10.1080/17538963.2022.2117193
Yanliang Miao, Xu Fei
ABSTRACT Since the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in 1973, evolution has been the defining feature of changes in the IMS. The IMS has always been dominated by the US dollar. With it comes four structural issues: imbalance, lack of coordination, inade quacy, and weaponization of financial infrastructure. The Russia–Ukraine conflict will further accelerate the diversification and fragmentation of the IMS. But it might also lead to revolutionary changes such as balkanization of the IMS and even the end of financial globalization. Diversification of reserve currency could alleviate the imbalance and inadequacy problems of the IMS, restraining the dollar weaponization to some extent, but could not solve the problem of incoordination. Without a fair and inclusive IMS, ever larger financial spillovers will come from center countries to peripheral ones, and the global economy and financial system will face greater challenges in both efficiency and stability.
摘要自1973年布雷顿森林体系崩溃以来,进化一直是国际监测系统变化的决定性特征。国际监测系统一直以美元为主。随之而来的是四个结构性问题:不平衡、缺乏协调、不充分和金融基础设施武器化。俄乌冲突将进一步加速国际监测系统的多样化和碎片化。但它也可能导致革命性的变化,比如IMS的巴尔干化,甚至金融全球化的终结。储备货币的多样化可以缓解国际货币体系的不平衡和不足问题,在一定程度上抑制了美元的武器化,但不能解决不协调的问题。如果没有一个公平和包容的IMS,将有更大的金融溢出效应从中心国家流向外围国家,全球经济和金融体系将在效率和稳定性方面面临更大挑战。
{"title":"The international monetary system: evolution and revolution","authors":"Yanliang Miao, Xu Fei","doi":"10.1080/17538963.2022.2117193","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17538963.2022.2117193","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Since the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in 1973, evolution has been the defining feature of changes in the IMS. The IMS has always been dominated by the US dollar. With it comes four structural issues: imbalance, lack of coordination, inade quacy, and weaponization of financial infrastructure. The Russia–Ukraine conflict will further accelerate the diversification and fragmentation of the IMS. But it might also lead to revolutionary changes such as balkanization of the IMS and even the end of financial globalization. Diversification of reserve currency could alleviate the imbalance and inadequacy problems of the IMS, restraining the dollar weaponization to some extent, but could not solve the problem of incoordination. Without a fair and inclusive IMS, ever larger financial spillovers will come from center countries to peripheral ones, and the global economy and financial system will face greater challenges in both efficiency and stability.","PeriodicalId":45279,"journal":{"name":"China Economic Journal","volume":"15 1","pages":"235 - 252"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2022-09-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42591618","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
China and global value chain restructuring 中国与全球价值链重组
IF 3.3 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-09-02 DOI: 10.1080/17538963.2022.2117198
Yuqing Xing
ABSTRACT Global value chains have been a major means of manufacturing and trading goods internationally. Economic efficiency was the sole factor driving the proliferation of GVCs and the China-centered GVCs were established in a variety of manufactured products. In recent years, the China–US trade war and the unfolding COVID-19 pandemic have sent shock waves and disrupted smooth operations of GVCs, which has triggered the geographic restructuring of GVCs, in particular value chain diversification away from China. This paper analyzes the centrality of China in value chains and the vulnerabilities of GVCs exposed to the trade war and the pandemic. This paper provides comprehensive empirical evidence on GVC restructuring from different perspectives and discusses policy options that China could cope with the tide of the value chain diversification.
全球价值链已经成为国际间商品生产和贸易的主要手段。经济效率是推动全球价值链扩散的唯一因素,以中国为中心的全球价值链在各种制成品中建立起来。近年来,中美贸易战和新冠肺炎疫情冲击冲击全球价值链,扰乱了全球价值链的正常运行,引发了全球价值链的地域重组,特别是价值链向远离中国的多元化发展。本文分析了中国在价值链中的中心地位,以及全球价值链在贸易战和疫情下的脆弱性。本文从不同角度对全球价值链结构调整提供了全面的实证证据,并探讨了中国应对价值链多元化浪潮的政策选择。
{"title":"China and global value chain restructuring","authors":"Yuqing Xing","doi":"10.1080/17538963.2022.2117198","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17538963.2022.2117198","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Global value chains have been a major means of manufacturing and trading goods internationally. Economic efficiency was the sole factor driving the proliferation of GVCs and the China-centered GVCs were established in a variety of manufactured products. In recent years, the China–US trade war and the unfolding COVID-19 pandemic have sent shock waves and disrupted smooth operations of GVCs, which has triggered the geographic restructuring of GVCs, in particular value chain diversification away from China. This paper analyzes the centrality of China in value chains and the vulnerabilities of GVCs exposed to the trade war and the pandemic. This paper provides comprehensive empirical evidence on GVC restructuring from different perspectives and discusses policy options that China could cope with the tide of the value chain diversification.","PeriodicalId":45279,"journal":{"name":"China Economic Journal","volume":"15 1","pages":"310 - 329"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2022-09-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48785540","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
U.S.-China trade relations in an era of great power competition 大国竞争时代的美中贸易关系
IF 3.3 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-09-02 DOI: 10.1080/17538963.2022.2117185
D. Dollar
Abstract The tech war is having an effect on U.S.-China trade. For high-tech products like telecommunications equipment, semiconductors, and computer accessories, there has been a sharp drop in trade in both directions. This is not simply a drop in demand in the U.S. for these items because imports of them from other partners has soared. Vietnam’s exports to the U.S. jumped in the sensitive categories, and overall Vietnamese exports to the U.S. more than doubled between 2018 and 2021. Despite these effects from the tech war, however, overall U.S.-China trade has held up surprisingly well. The year 2022 will almost certainly see a new historical high for trade in both directions. This resilience of trade, in the face of tariffs and tech sanctions, indicates that there is a strong economic foundation for the two-way relationship. For both China and the U.S., it is hard to replace the other one as a trade partner. It is possible for production of a few specific items to shift from China to Vietnam, but there is no way to replace China’s huge manufacturing output. From China’s point of view, the technologically advanced countries are all allies of the U.S., and it is not easy for China to turn to Europe for the technology it cannot get from America. Because U.S.-China trade is based on strong fundamentals, it will probably continue at a high level, in an uneasy equilibrium in which certain trade and investment is off-limits, while other business goes on.
科技战正在对中美贸易产生影响。在电信设备、半导体和电脑配件等高科技产品方面,双向贸易大幅下降。这不仅仅是因为美国对这些商品的需求下降,因为美国从其他伙伴国进口这些商品的数量飙升。越南对美国的出口在敏感类别中大幅增长,2018年至2021年期间,越南对美国的总体出口增长了一倍以上。然而,尽管科技战带来了这些影响,但美中贸易的总体表现出人意料地好。几乎可以肯定的是,2022年双方贸易将创下历史新高。面对关税和技术制裁,这种贸易韧性表明,中美双边关系有着坚实的经济基础。中国和美国都很难取代对方成为贸易伙伴。少数特定产品的生产有可能从中国转移到越南,但没有办法取代中国庞大的制造业产出。从中国的角度来看,技术先进的国家都是美国的盟友,中国从美国得不到的技术转向欧洲并不容易。由于美中贸易建立在强大的基础之上,它可能会继续保持高水平,在一种不稳定的平衡中,某些贸易和投资被禁止,而其他业务继续进行。
{"title":"U.S.-China trade relations in an era of great power competition","authors":"D. Dollar","doi":"10.1080/17538963.2022.2117185","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17538963.2022.2117185","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The tech war is having an effect on U.S.-China trade. For high-tech products like telecommunications equipment, semiconductors, and computer accessories, there has been a sharp drop in trade in both directions. This is not simply a drop in demand in the U.S. for these items because imports of them from other partners has soared. Vietnam’s exports to the U.S. jumped in the sensitive categories, and overall Vietnamese exports to the U.S. more than doubled between 2018 and 2021. Despite these effects from the tech war, however, overall U.S.-China trade has held up surprisingly well. The year 2022 will almost certainly see a new historical high for trade in both directions. This resilience of trade, in the face of tariffs and tech sanctions, indicates that there is a strong economic foundation for the two-way relationship. For both China and the U.S., it is hard to replace the other one as a trade partner. It is possible for production of a few specific items to shift from China to Vietnam, but there is no way to replace China’s huge manufacturing output. From China’s point of view, the technologically advanced countries are all allies of the U.S., and it is not easy for China to turn to Europe for the technology it cannot get from America. Because U.S.-China trade is based on strong fundamentals, it will probably continue at a high level, in an uneasy equilibrium in which certain trade and investment is off-limits, while other business goes on.","PeriodicalId":45279,"journal":{"name":"China Economic Journal","volume":"15 1","pages":"277 - 289"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2022-09-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42454762","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
The reemergence of the issue of US ‘external sustainability’ and what should be China’s responses 美国“外部可持续性”问题的重新出现,以及中国应该如何应对
IF 3.3 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-09-02 DOI: 10.1080/17538963.2022.2117167
Yu Yongding
Abstract America’s current-account deficit has grown significantly since 2020, reaching 3.6% of GDP last year – its highest level since 2008. At the same time, its net foreign debt reached a staggering $18 trillion, or 78% of GDP. And fast-rising inflation has prompted the US Federal Reserve to begin raising interest rates and reducing its holdings of Treasury securities – moves that are likely to impede growth and increase the government’s borrowing cost. Will America’s “external sustainability” be at risk again? To answer that question, we must consider the four variables on which external sustainability depends: the gap between private saving and private investment, the size of the budget deficit, investment-income levels, and the rate of GDP growth. Geopolitics might compound the challenges ahead. The US has avoided a balance-of- payments and dollar crisis in the past largely because Asian central banks and oil- exporting countries have tirelessly purchased US government bonds and Treasury bills. But amid rising geopolitical tensions, these buyers might decide – or be forced – to rethink their purchases. It is against this backdrop that the Fed is pursuing rather aggressive interest-rate hikes and quantitative tightening. But increased demand for foreign capital to finance the trade deficit, together with greater reluctance by foreign investors to purchase US government bonds and Treasuries, might put America in a quandary. It is likely that America’s external balance will deteriorate significantly, unless US GDP growth slows significantly.
自2020年以来,美国的经常项目赤字大幅增长,去年达到GDP的3.6%,是自2008年以来的最高水平。与此同时,其净外债达到了惊人的18万亿美元,占GDP的78%。快速上升的通胀已促使美联储(fed)开始加息并减持美国国债——这些举措可能会阻碍经济增长,增加政府的借贷成本。美国的“外部可持续性”会再次面临风险吗?要回答这个问题,我们必须考虑外部可持续性所依赖的四个变量:私人储蓄与私人投资之间的差距、预算赤字规模、投资收入水平和GDP增长率。地缘政治可能会加剧未来的挑战。美国过去避免了国际收支和美元危机,主要是因为亚洲各国央行和石油出口国不知疲倦地购买了美国政府债券和美国国债。但随着地缘政治紧张局势的加剧,这些买家可能会决定——或被迫——重新考虑他们的购买行为。正是在这种背景下,美联储采取了相当激进的加息和量化紧缩政策。但是,为填补贸易赤字而增加的对外国资本的需求,加上外国投资者更不愿意购买美国政府债券和国债,可能会让美国陷入两难境地。除非美国GDP增长显著放缓,否则美国的外部平衡很可能会显著恶化。
{"title":"The reemergence of the issue of US ‘external sustainability’ and what should be China’s responses","authors":"Yu Yongding","doi":"10.1080/17538963.2022.2117167","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17538963.2022.2117167","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract America’s current-account deficit has grown significantly since 2020, reaching 3.6% of GDP last year – its highest level since 2008. At the same time, its net foreign debt reached a staggering $18 trillion, or 78% of GDP. And fast-rising inflation has prompted the US Federal Reserve to begin raising interest rates and reducing its holdings of Treasury securities – moves that are likely to impede growth and increase the government’s borrowing cost. Will America’s “external sustainability” be at risk again? To answer that question, we must consider the four variables on which external sustainability depends: the gap between private saving and private investment, the size of the budget deficit, investment-income levels, and the rate of GDP growth. Geopolitics might compound the challenges ahead. The US has avoided a balance-of- payments and dollar crisis in the past largely because Asian central banks and oil- exporting countries have tirelessly purchased US government bonds and Treasury bills. But amid rising geopolitical tensions, these buyers might decide – or be forced – to rethink their purchases. It is against this backdrop that the Fed is pursuing rather aggressive interest-rate hikes and quantitative tightening. But increased demand for foreign capital to finance the trade deficit, together with greater reluctance by foreign investors to purchase US government bonds and Treasuries, might put America in a quandary. It is likely that America’s external balance will deteriorate significantly, unless US GDP growth slows significantly.","PeriodicalId":45279,"journal":{"name":"China Economic Journal","volume":"15 1","pages":"263 - 276"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2022-09-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43911582","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
期刊
China Economic Journal
全部 Acc. Chem. Res. ACS Applied Bio Materials ACS Appl. Electron. Mater. ACS Appl. Energy Mater. ACS Appl. Mater. Interfaces ACS Appl. Nano Mater. ACS Appl. Polym. Mater. ACS BIOMATER-SCI ENG ACS Catal. ACS Cent. Sci. ACS Chem. Biol. ACS Chemical Health & Safety ACS Chem. Neurosci. ACS Comb. Sci. ACS Earth Space Chem. ACS Energy Lett. ACS Infect. Dis. ACS Macro Lett. ACS Mater. Lett. ACS Med. Chem. Lett. ACS Nano ACS Omega ACS Photonics ACS Sens. ACS Sustainable Chem. Eng. ACS Synth. Biol. Anal. Chem. BIOCHEMISTRY-US Bioconjugate Chem. BIOMACROMOLECULES Chem. Res. Toxicol. Chem. Rev. Chem. Mater. CRYST GROWTH DES ENERG FUEL Environ. Sci. Technol. Environ. Sci. Technol. Lett. Eur. J. Inorg. Chem. IND ENG CHEM RES Inorg. Chem. J. Agric. Food. Chem. J. Chem. Eng. Data J. Chem. Educ. J. Chem. Inf. Model. J. Chem. Theory Comput. J. Med. Chem. J. Nat. Prod. J PROTEOME RES J. Am. Chem. Soc. LANGMUIR MACROMOLECULES Mol. Pharmaceutics Nano Lett. Org. Lett. ORG PROCESS RES DEV ORGANOMETALLICS J. Org. Chem. J. Phys. Chem. J. Phys. Chem. A J. Phys. Chem. B J. Phys. Chem. C J. Phys. Chem. Lett. Analyst Anal. Methods Biomater. Sci. Catal. Sci. Technol. Chem. Commun. Chem. Soc. Rev. CHEM EDUC RES PRACT CRYSTENGCOMM Dalton Trans. Energy Environ. Sci. ENVIRON SCI-NANO ENVIRON SCI-PROC IMP ENVIRON SCI-WAT RES Faraday Discuss. Food Funct. Green Chem. Inorg. Chem. Front. Integr. Biol. J. Anal. At. Spectrom. J. Mater. Chem. A J. Mater. Chem. B J. Mater. Chem. C Lab Chip Mater. Chem. Front. Mater. Horiz. MEDCHEMCOMM Metallomics Mol. Biosyst. Mol. Syst. Des. Eng. Nanoscale Nanoscale Horiz. Nat. Prod. Rep. New J. Chem. Org. Biomol. Chem. Org. Chem. Front. PHOTOCH PHOTOBIO SCI PCCP Polym. Chem.
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
0
微信
客服QQ
Book学术公众号 扫码关注我们
反馈
×
意见反馈
请填写您的意见或建议
请填写您的手机或邮箱
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
现在去查看 取消
×
提示
确定
Book学术官方微信
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术
文献互助 智能选刊 最新文献 互助须知 联系我们:info@booksci.cn
Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。
Copyright © 2023 Book学术 All rights reserved.
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号 京ICP备2023020795号-1