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Convolution Approach for Value at Risk Estimation 风险值估计的卷积方法
IF 0.9 Q4 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2022-02-25 DOI: 10.1142/s0219091522500059
Yam Wing Siu
Formally, Value at risk (VaR) measures the worst expected loss over a given horizon under normal market conditions at a given confidence level. Very often, daily data are used to compute VaR and scale up to the required time horizon with the square root of time adjustment. This gives rise to an important question when we perform VaR estimation: whether the values of VaR (i.e., “loss”) should be interpreted as (1) exactly on [Formula: see text]th day and (2) within i days. This research attempted to answer the above question using actual data of SPX and HSI. It was found that, in determining the proportionality of the values, (i.e., slopes) of VaR versus the holding period, the slopes for within i days are generally greater than those for exactly on [Formula: see text]th day. This has great implications to risk managers as it would be inappropriate to simply scale up the one-day volatility by multiplying the square root of time (or the number of days) ahead to determine the risk over a longer horizon of [Formula: see text] days. The evolution of log return distribution over time using actual data has also been performed empirically. It provides a better understanding than a series of VaR values. However, the number of samples in actual data is limited. There may not be enough data to draw reliable observation after it has been evolved a few times. Numerical simulation can help solve the problem by generating, say, one million log returns. It has been used to provide many insights as to how the distribution evolves over time and reveals an interesting dynamic of minimum cumulative returns. Numerical simulation is time consuming for performing evolution of distribution. The convolution approach provides an efficient way to analyze the evolution of the whole data distribution that encompasses VaR and others. The convolution approach with modified/scaled input distribution has been developed and it matches the results of numerical simulation perfectly for independent data for both exactly on [Formula: see text]th day and within i days. As the autocorrelation of the single index is mostly close to zero, results show that the convolution approach is able to match empirical results to a large extent.
形式上,风险价值(VaR)衡量在给定置信水平下,正常市场条件下,在给定期限内的最坏预期损失。通常,每日数据用于计算VaR,并通过时间调整的平方根扩展到所需的时间范围。当我们进行VaR估计时,这就产生了一个重要的问题:是否应将VaR的值(即“损失”)解释为(1)第[公式:见正文]天,以及(2)第i天内。本研究试图利用SPX和HSI的实际数据来回答上述问题。研究发现,在确定VaR值与持有期的比例(即斜率)时,i天内的斜率通常大于第[公式:见正文]天的斜率。这对风险管理者有很大的影响,因为简单地通过乘以未来时间的平方根(或天数)来扩大单日波动率,以确定[公式:见正文]天的更长范围内的风险是不合适的。使用实际数据对对数收益分布随时间的演变也进行了实证研究。它提供了比一系列VaR值更好的理解。然而,实际数据中的样本数量是有限的。经过几次进化后,可能没有足够的数据来进行可靠的观测。数值模拟可以通过生成一百万个日志返回来帮助解决这个问题。它被用来提供许多关于分布如何随时间演变的见解,并揭示了最小累积回报的有趣动态。数值模拟对于执行分布的演化是耗时的。卷积方法提供了一种有效的方法来分析整个数据分布的演变,包括VaR和其他。已经开发了具有修改/缩放输入分布的卷积方法,它与独立数据的数值模拟结果完全匹配,无论是在[公式:见正文]第天还是在i天内。由于单个指数的自相关大多接近于零,结果表明卷积方法能够在很大程度上匹配经验结果。
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引用次数: 1
Other Side of Voluntary Clawback Provisions in Executive Compensation Contracts: Evidence from the Investment Efficiency 高管薪酬合同中自愿回购条款的另一面——来自投资效率的证据
IF 0.9 Q4 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2022-02-12 DOI: 10.1142/s0219091522500011
Sohyung Kim, Cheol Lee, Santanu Mitra
This study examines how firm-initiated clawback provisions in executive compensation contracts affect firms’ investment efficiency. While existing the literature provides evidence on positive aspects of adopting clawback provisions, the potential impact of clawback adoption on firms’ long-term investment efficiency remains unexplored. Using three investment proxies (i.e., capital expenditure, new investment, and total investment), we find that clawback adopters tend to reduce their long-term investments after the clawback provisions are put in place, compared to nonadopters. In particular, we find evidence that the adoption of clawback policies decreases the investment efficiency in the post-adoption period, especially for the firms whose ex ante probability of underinvestment is high. Our additional analyses reveal that observed reduction in the investment efficiency for the firms that are likely to underinvest is more evident for the firms with financial con straints and the firms that adopt risk-taking and performance-based clawback triggers. In contrast, the clawback adopters that are likely to overinvest do not change their investment behavior in the post-adoption period. Overall, our findings suggest that the impleme ntation of clawback provisions may lead to unintended consequences for firms’ long-term investment practices, resulting in a decrease in the investment efficiency.
本研究考察了高管薪酬合同中企业发起的追回条款如何影响企业的投资效率。虽然现有文献提供了采用追回条款的积极方面的证据,但追回条款的采用对公司长期投资效率的潜在影响仍未得到探索。使用三种投资指标(即资本支出、新投资和总投资),我们发现,与不采用追回条款的人相比,追回条款的采用者往往会在追回条款实施后减少其长期投资。特别是,我们发现有证据表明,采用追回政策会降低采用后时期的投资效率,尤其是对于那些事前投资不足概率很高的公司。我们的额外分析表明,观察到的可能投资不足的公司的投资效率下降,对于有财务约束的公司和采用冒险和基于绩效的追回触发因素的公司来说更为明显。相比之下,可能过度投资的追回采用者在采用后的时期不会改变他们的投资行为。总的来说,我们的研究结果表明,追回条款的实施可能会对企业的长期投资行为产生意想不到的后果,导致投资效率下降。
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引用次数: 0
Corporate Tax Avoidance: Evidence from Vietnamese Firms 企业避税:来自越南公司的证据
IF 0.9 Q4 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2022-02-07 DOI: 10.1142/s0219091522500023
Ha Kieu Oanh, Christopher Gan
This paper examines the effect of corporate tax avoidance on firm value using a sample of Vietnamese nonfinancial listed firms for the period 2007 to 2018. Using fixed effect, ordinary least square and system generalized method of moment estimation, the results show a positive and statistically significant relationship between corporate tax avoidance and firm value. Our result demonstrates the bright side of corporate tax avoidance at the firm level. Further analysis shows that the positive effect of corporate tax avoidance on firm value can be intensified by the effectiveness of the board of directors in monitoring management.
本文以2007年至2018年越南非金融上市公司为样本,研究了企业避税对公司价值的影响。利用固定效应、普通最小二乘和系统广义矩估计方法,结果表明企业避税与企业价值之间存在显著的正相关关系。我们的研究结果在公司层面展示了企业避税的光明一面。进一步分析表明,董事会监督管理的有效性可以强化企业避税对企业价值的积极影响。
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引用次数: 0
Remittances Vis-à-Vis Bank Credit and Investment: Evidence From Fiji 汇款与-à-Vis银行信贷与投资:来自斐济的证据
IF 0.9 Q4 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2022-02-07 DOI: 10.1142/s0219091522500035
Jakhongir Kakhkharov, L. Archer, Matia Tuisawau, Akata Taito, Mitieli Cama, Parmendra Sharma
This study is among a very few to investigate the impact of international remittances on bank credit and household investment. Using Fiji as a case study and the most recent available data on Household Income and Expenditure Survey together with applying three distinct econometric techniques, we find that remittances significantly increase the likelihood that households receiving remittances obtain income from investing. Remittances also positively influence the value of bank credit, although this effect is statistically weak.
本研究是调查国际汇款对银行信贷和家庭投资影响的少数研究之一。我们以斐济为案例研究,结合家庭收入和支出调查的最新数据,运用三种不同的计量经济学技术,发现汇款显著提高了接收汇款的家庭通过投资获得收入的可能性。汇款也对银行信贷的价值产生积极影响,尽管这种影响在统计上较弱。
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引用次数: 0
The Oil Futures and Options Markets in 2020: The “Message from Markets” 2020年石油期货和期权市场:“来自市场的信息”
IF 0.9 Q4 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2021-11-27 DOI: 10.1142/s0219091521500302
Ehud I. Ronn
This paper considers the response of the equity and oil markets to the onset of crisis conditions after February 15, 2020. Based on derivative markets for equities and WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude-oil futures contracts, implied equity and oil volatilities quantify the depth of the crisis and contrast it with the previous ones. The estimated Black [(1976) Journal of Financial Economics, 3, 167–179] vol skew and Merton [(1976) Journal of Financial Economics, 3, 125–144] option model parameters are able to discern between demand- and supply-side facets. The time when the futures curve is in contango identifies the beginning and, to date, conclusion of the crisis. Using the CAPM, co-movement of oil and equity prices permits computing forecasts of spot oil prices. In considering these events, we recognize the essential role of prices in financial markets: They are conveyors of information, the “Message from Markets,” in which financial theory proves useful, practical and applicable.
本文考虑了2020年2月15日之后股票和石油市场对危机状况的反应。基于股票衍生品市场和WTI(西德克萨斯中质原油)原油期货合约,隐含的股票和石油波动性量化了危机的深度,并将其与之前的危机进行了对比。估计的Black[(1976)Journal of Financial Economics,3167-179]vol偏斜和Merton[(1976年)Journal ofFinancial Economics(3125-144]期权模型参数能够区分需求和供应方面。期货曲线处于期货溢价的时间标志着危机的开始和结束。使用CAPM,石油和股票价格的共同运动允许计算现货石油价格的预测。在考虑这些事件时,我们认识到价格在金融市场中的重要作用:它们是信息的传递者,即“来自市场的信息”,金融理论在其中被证明是有用、实用和适用的。
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引用次数: 0
Recap of the 28th Annual Conference on Pacific Basin Finance, Economics, Accounting, and Management & the 14th NCTU International Finance Conference 第28届太平洋流域财经会计管理学术年会暨第十四届全国工大国际金融学术会议综述
IF 0.9 Q4 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2021-11-26 DOI: 10.1142/s0219091521810018
Cheng-Few Lee, Woan-lih Liang
The 28th Annual Conference on Pacific Basin Finance, Economics, Accounting, and Management was held at National Chiao Tung University, Taiwan on January 7 and 8, 2021. The first conference was held at Rutgers University in 1993. Since then, the conference has been held in Hong Kong (1994, 1998), Taipei (1995, 1999. 2003, 2006, 2011, 2016, 2019), Bangkok (2000, 2004, 2009), Rutgers (1996, 2001, 2005, 2012, 2018), Singapore (1997, 2002, 2017), Vietnam (2007, 2015), Australia (2008, 2013), China (2010), and Japan (2014). The program co-directors of the conference were Cheng-Few Lee, Rutgers University, USA, and Woan-lih Liang, National Chiao Tung University, Taiwan.
第28届太平洋流域金融、经济、会计与管理年会于2021年1月7日和8日在台湾国立交通大学举行。第一次会议于1993年在罗格斯大学举行。此后,会议先后在香港(19941998)、台北(19951999)举行。2003年、2006年、2011年、2016年、2019年)、曼谷(2000年、2004年、2009年)、罗格斯大学(1996年、2001年、2005年、2012年、2018年)、新加坡(1997年、2002年、2017年)、越南(2007年、2015年)、澳大利亚(2008年、2013年)、中国(2010年)和日本(2014年)。美国罗格斯大学的李成新和台湾国立交通大学的梁Woan-lih共同主持了会议。
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引用次数: 0
Identifying the News in Analysts’ Earnings Forecasts Revisions: An Alternative to the Random Walk Expectation 识别分析师盈利预测修正中的新闻:随机游走预期的替代方案
IF 0.9 Q4 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2021-11-23 DOI: 10.1142/s0219091521500326
Ray J. Pfeiffer, Karen Teitel, S. Wahab, M. Wahab
Previous research indicates that analysts’ forecasts are superior to time series models as measures of investors’ earnings expectations. Nevertheless, research also documents predictable patterns in analysts’ forecasts and forecast errors. If investors are aware of these patterns, analysts’ forecast revisions measured using the random walk expectation are an incomplete representation of changes in investors’ earnings expectations. Investors can use knowledge of errors and biases in forecasts to improve upon the simple random walk expectation by incorporating conditioning information. Using data from 2005 to 2015, we compare associations between market-adjusted stock returns and alternative specifications of forecast revisions to determine which best represents changes in investors’ earnings expectations. We find forecast revisions measured using a ‘bandwagon expectations’ specification, which includes two prior analysts’ forecast signals and provides the most improvement over random-walk-based revision measures. Our findings demonstrate benefits to considering information beyond the previously issued analyst forecast when representing investors’ expectations of analysts’ forecasts.
先前的研究表明,作为衡量投资者收益预期的指标,分析师的预测优于时间序列模型。然而,研究也记录了分析师预测和预测误差的可预测模式。如果投资者意识到这些模式,分析师使用随机游走预期衡量的预测修正是投资者收益预期变化的不完全代表。投资者可以利用预测中的错误和偏差知识,通过结合条件信息来改进简单的随机游走预期。使用2005年至2015年的数据,我们比较了市场调整后的股票收益与预测修正的替代规范之间的关联,以确定哪一个最能代表投资者收益预期的变化。我们发现使用“潮流预期”规范来测量预测修正,该规范包括两个先前分析师的预测信号,并且比基于随机游动的修正措施提供了最大的改进。我们的研究结果表明,在代表投资者对分析师预测的期望时,考虑超出先前发布的分析师预测的信息是有益的。
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引用次数: 0
Modeling of Risk Measure Bonds Using the Beta Model 用Beta模型建模风险度量债券
IF 0.9 Q4 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2021-11-17 DOI: 10.1142/s0219091521500338
F. Hachicha, A. Hachicha, A. Masmoudi
Duration and convexity are important measures in fixed-income portfolio management. In this paper, we analyze this measure of the bonds by applying the beta model. The general usefulness of the beta probability distribution enhances its applicability in a wide range of reliability analyses, especially in the theory and practice of reliability management. We estimate the beta density function of the duration/convexity. This estimate is based on two important and simple models of short rates, namely, Vasicek and CIR (Cox, Ingersoll, and Ross CIR). The models are described and then their sensitivity of the models with respect to changes in the parameters is studied. We generate the stochastic interest rate on the duration and convexity model. The main results show that the beta probability distribution can be applied to model each phase of the risk function. This distribution approved its effectiveness, simplicity and flexibility. In this paper, we are interested in providing a decision-making tool for the manager in order to minimize the portfolio risk. It is helpful to have a model that is reasonably simple and suitable to different maturity of bonds. Also, it is widely used by investors for choosing bond portfolio immunization through the investment strategy. The finding also shows that the probability of risk measured by the reliability function is to highlight the relationship between duration/convexity and different risk levels. With these new results, this paper offers several implications for investors and risk management purposes.
久期和凸性是固定收益投资组合管理的重要指标。在本文中,我们用beta模型来分析这种债券的度量。概率分布的通用性增强了它在可靠性分析中的广泛适用性,特别是在可靠性管理的理论和实践中。我们估计持续时间/凸度的beta密度函数。这一估计是基于两个重要而简单的短期利率模型,即Vasicek和CIR (Cox, Ingersoll和Ross CIR)。首先对模型进行了描述,然后研究了模型对参数变化的敏感性。我们在存续期和凸性模型上生成随机利率。主要结果表明,贝塔概率分布可用于对风险函数的各个阶段进行建模。这种分配认可了它的有效性、简单性和灵活性。在本文中,我们感兴趣的是为管理者提供一种决策工具,以使投资组合风险最小化。建立一个合理简单、适合于不同期限债券的模型是有帮助的。同时,它也被投资者广泛用于通过投资策略选择债券投资组合免疫。研究结果还表明,通过信度函数测量的风险概率突出了持续时间/凸度与不同风险水平之间的关系。根据这些新结果,本文为投资者和风险管理提供了一些启示。
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引用次数: 0
Corporate Governance, Product Market Competition and Announcement Returns of Spinoff Firms 公司治理、产品市场竞争与分拆公司的公告收益
IF 0.9 Q4 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2021-11-13 DOI: 10.1142/s0219091521500314
Lee-Hsien Pan, Y. Lin, Mengxing Lu, I-Min Lin
Our paper investigates the relationship between corporate governance (internal corporate governance mechanism) and announcement returns of spinoff firms, and examines whether such relationship can be explained by product market competition (external corporate governance mechanism). Using a sample of 269 completed spinoffs between 1983 and 2009, we find a nonlinear U-shaped relationship between corporate governance and the cumulative abnormal return around the announcement period. Moreover, we find that such a nonlinear relationship hinges on the level of competition in the market in which the spinoff firms operate. Specifically, we find that weak governance firms experience higher announcement period return only in highly competitive industries, while strong governance firms exhibit higher announcement period return, but only in moderately competitive industries. Our findings reconcile the mixed results in the literature regarding the relationship between corporate governance and firm value by examining the effect of product market competition on this relationship. Our results highlight the importance of product market competition as a moderator between corporate governance and the announcement period return of the spinoff firms.
本文考察了公司治理(内部公司治理机制)与分拆公司公告收益之间的关系,并考察了这种关系是否可以用产品市场竞争(外部公司治理机制)来解释。以1983 - 2009年间269家已完成的分拆公司为样本,我们发现公司治理与公告期前后累积异常收益之间存在非线性u型关系。此外,我们发现这种非线性关系取决于分拆公司所处的市场竞争水平。具体来说,我们发现弱治理公司只有在竞争激烈的行业才会有更高的公告期回报,而强治理公司只有在竞争适度的行业才会有更高的公告期回报。通过考察产品市场竞争对公司治理与企业价值关系的影响,我们的研究结果调和了文献中关于公司治理与企业价值关系的混合结果。我们的研究结果强调了产品市场竞争作为公司治理和分拆公司公告期回报之间的调节因子的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
Impact of Noninterest Income on Bank Risk-Taking and Bank Lending Spread 非利息收入对银行风险承担和贷款利差的影响
IF 0.9 Q4 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2021-11-11 DOI: 10.1142/s0219091521500296
M. Jawad, Munazza Naz, Muhammad Aftab Shamsi
This study investigates the impact of diversification between traditional margin income and nontraditional income (noninterest-based income) on bank risk-taking and bank lending spread for banks operating in Pakistan. Bank risk is measured with the nonperforming loan ratio and bank [Formula: see text]-score. Data of this study is obtained from financial statements, which are an annual publication of State Bank of Pakistan, for the period 2006–2016 for 52 banks in Pakistan. Panel regression with the generalized method of moments (GMM) estimator is employed. The study reveals that an increase in noninterest income increases bank risk-taking (spending on highly risky assets), as noninterest income is riskier than interest income. It is also revealed that banks with greater dependence on noninterest income may grant a loan with lower lending spread. These results have implications for the betterment of the banking system, regulatory authority, and stakeholders as well. From a regulatory perspective, the study provides guidelines for making rules and regulations to control and monitor the dependence on noninterest income as well as on interest income. Pakistan banks regulatory authority should focus on the increase in disclosure of the composition of noninterest income and this disclosure would increase understanding of changing environment of banking in Pakistan.
本研究调查了传统保证金收入和非传统收入(非利息收入)之间的多元化对在巴基斯坦经营的银行承担风险和银行贷款利差的影响。银行风险是用不良贷款率和银行[公式:见正文]-分数来衡量的。本研究的数据来自巴基斯坦国家银行2006年至2016年期间52家银行的财务报表,这些财务报表是巴基斯坦国家银行的年度出版物。采用广义矩量估计的面板回归方法。研究表明,非利息收入的增加会增加银行的风险承担(高风险资产支出),因为非利息收入比利息收入风险更大。据透露,对非利息收入依赖程度较高的银行可能会发放贷款利差较低的贷款。这些结果对改善银行系统、监管机构和利益相关者都有影响。从监管角度来看,该研究为制定规则和条例提供了指导,以控制和监测对非利息收入和利息收入的依赖。巴基斯坦银行监管机构应将重点放在增加非利息收入构成的披露上,这一披露将增加对巴基斯坦银行业不断变化的环境的了解。
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引用次数: 3
期刊
Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies
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