Pub Date : 2021-10-29DOI: 10.1080/09599916.2021.1993315
Danielle Sanderson, S. Özogul
ABSTRACT The aim of this paper is to understand the expansion process of investment into Purpose Built Student Accommodation (PBSA) in Europe by examining transformations in student housing investment landscapes and uncovering the profiles and strategies of key investors between 2010 and 2020. Using data from Real Capital Analytics, trends in capital structures and profiles of PBSA investors are identified. Investors driving these trends are scrutinised in terms of their investment timelines, locations, hold periods and strategies of portfolio diversification. Furthermore, in-depth interviews with property analysts, PBSA investors, and developers substantiate the quantitative analysis. The empirical results show that Private Equity entered the European PBSA market, starting with the UK, when the yield premium post-GFC justified the perceived risk. Equity funds typically hold their portfolios for around five years and trade counter-cyclically with institutions such as pension funds. PBSA specialists, mainly REITs, have accumulated substantial portfolios, and the REIT structure is well-suited to the steady income which student rents should provide, but their lack of diversification leaves them vulnerable to changes in student demographics and accommodation requirements.
摘要本文旨在通过考察2010年至2020年间学生住房投资格局的变化，并揭示主要投资者的概况和策略，了解欧洲专门建造学生住房（PBSA）投资的扩张过程。利用Real Capital Analytics的数据，确定了PBSA投资者的资本结构趋势和概况。推动这些趋势的投资者会根据其投资时间表、地点、持有期和投资组合多元化策略进行仔细审查。此外，对房地产分析师、PBSA投资者和开发商的深入采访证实了定量分析。实证结果表明，私募股权进入欧洲PBSA市场，从英国开始，当时GFC后的收益率溢价证明了感知风险的合理性。股票基金通常持有其投资组合约五年，并与养老基金等机构进行逆周期交易。PBSA专家，主要是REITs，已经积累了大量的投资组合，REIT结构非常适合学生租金应该提供的稳定收入，但他们缺乏多样化，容易受到学生人口结构和住宿要求变化的影响。
{"title":"Key investors and their strategies in the expansion of European student housing investment","authors":"Danielle Sanderson, S. Özogul","doi":"10.1080/09599916.2021.1993315","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/09599916.2021.1993315","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT The aim of this paper is to understand the expansion process of investment into Purpose Built Student Accommodation (PBSA) in Europe by examining transformations in student housing investment landscapes and uncovering the profiles and strategies of key investors between 2010 and 2020. Using data from Real Capital Analytics, trends in capital structures and profiles of PBSA investors are identified. Investors driving these trends are scrutinised in terms of their investment timelines, locations, hold periods and strategies of portfolio diversification. Furthermore, in-depth interviews with property analysts, PBSA investors, and developers substantiate the quantitative analysis. The empirical results show that Private Equity entered the European PBSA market, starting with the UK, when the yield premium post-GFC justified the perceived risk. Equity funds typically hold their portfolios for around five years and trade counter-cyclically with institutions such as pension funds. PBSA specialists, mainly REITs, have accumulated substantial portfolios, and the REIT structure is well-suited to the steady income which student rents should provide, but their lack of diversification leaves them vulnerable to changes in student demographics and accommodation requirements.","PeriodicalId":45726,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Property Research","volume":"39 1","pages":"170 - 196"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2021-10-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43411874","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-08-26DOI: 10.1080/09599916.2021.1968017
Randy I. Anderson, Eli Beracha, Spencer Propper
ABSTRACT Endowments, wealthy families and retired individuals are often concerned, first and foremost, about preserving their wealth or avoiding the possibility of depleted funds during their lifetime. This paper examines the extent to which a variety of real estate asset types, in addition to a traditional stocks and bonds allocation, can help preserve wealth or avoid a financial shortfall event subject to periodic withdrawals over an extended time period. Using a Monte Carlo Simulation technique, we analyse the resiliency of eight different real estate investment vehicles as a rule of thumb of a 4% annual withdrawal. Our results show that some – in most cases meaningful – portfolio allocation to each of these investment vehicles reduces the chance of a financial shortfall over long-term horizons of 30 or 50 years. Similarly, when wealth preservation is desired, allocation to each of these investment vehicles increases investors’ wealth preservation probability. Overall, it appears that equity REITs provide the greatest benefit to the portfolio compared with other real estate investment vehicles. These findings support portfolio allocation into real estate vehicles for investors that seek to preserve wealth or avoid financial ruin.
{"title":"The impact of real estate allocation on investors’ ability to generate real income","authors":"Randy I. Anderson, Eli Beracha, Spencer Propper","doi":"10.1080/09599916.2021.1968017","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/09599916.2021.1968017","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Endowments, wealthy families and retired individuals are often concerned, first and foremost, about preserving their wealth or avoiding the possibility of depleted funds during their lifetime. This paper examines the extent to which a variety of real estate asset types, in addition to a traditional stocks and bonds allocation, can help preserve wealth or avoid a financial shortfall event subject to periodic withdrawals over an extended time period. Using a Monte Carlo Simulation technique, we analyse the resiliency of eight different real estate investment vehicles as a rule of thumb of a 4% annual withdrawal. Our results show that some – in most cases meaningful – portfolio allocation to each of these investment vehicles reduces the chance of a financial shortfall over long-term horizons of 30 or 50 years. Similarly, when wealth preservation is desired, allocation to each of these investment vehicles increases investors’ wealth preservation probability. Overall, it appears that equity REITs provide the greatest benefit to the portfolio compared with other real estate investment vehicles. These findings support portfolio allocation into real estate vehicles for investors that seek to preserve wealth or avoid financial ruin.","PeriodicalId":45726,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Property Research","volume":"39 1","pages":"120 - 147"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2021-08-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47109979","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-08-17DOI: 10.1080/09599916.2021.1965644
Benita Zulch, Joseph Awoamim Yacim, P. Paradza
ABSTRACT Zimbabwe’s new administration indicated its willingness to end the compensation dispute, which lasted for two decades with former commercial farmers (FCFs), by signing the global compensation agreement (GCA). In the agreement, the Government of Zimbabwe (GoZ) offered to pay the sum of 3.5 billion, United States Dollars (USD) to the FCFs for their expropriated farmlands. A study carried out by the Valuation Consortium (Valcon) before the GCA signing revealed that most of the FCFs accepted the compensation offered by the expropriating authority. Thus far, no study has been done to assess the level of satisfaction of the affected FCFs, with the GCA provisions. Therefore, this study evaluated the views of FCFs and members of the Compensation Committee (MsCC) on this subject. Data were collected through a questionnaire survey which was mailed directly to the Chairperson of the FCFs, who sent it to other members to respond to issues raised. The study found mixed views by the FCFs on their levels of satisfaction with the GCA. Thus, the study concluded that compensation offered was not entirely satisfactory because it did not include accruals for delayed payment, professional fees, and a detailed breakdown of the compensable heads of claim.
{"title":"Are former commercial farmers in Zimbabwe satisfied with the global compensation agreement?","authors":"Benita Zulch, Joseph Awoamim Yacim, P. Paradza","doi":"10.1080/09599916.2021.1965644","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/09599916.2021.1965644","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Zimbabwe’s new administration indicated its willingness to end the compensation dispute, which lasted for two decades with former commercial farmers (FCFs), by signing the global compensation agreement (GCA). In the agreement, the Government of Zimbabwe (GoZ) offered to pay the sum of 3.5 billion, United States Dollars (USD) to the FCFs for their expropriated farmlands. A study carried out by the Valuation Consortium (Valcon) before the GCA signing revealed that most of the FCFs accepted the compensation offered by the expropriating authority. Thus far, no study has been done to assess the level of satisfaction of the affected FCFs, with the GCA provisions. Therefore, this study evaluated the views of FCFs and members of the Compensation Committee (MsCC) on this subject. Data were collected through a questionnaire survey which was mailed directly to the Chairperson of the FCFs, who sent it to other members to respond to issues raised. The study found mixed views by the FCFs on their levels of satisfaction with the GCA. Thus, the study concluded that compensation offered was not entirely satisfactory because it did not include accruals for delayed payment, professional fees, and a detailed breakdown of the compensable heads of claim.","PeriodicalId":45726,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Property Research","volume":"39 1","pages":"97 - 119"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2021-08-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45454639","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-07-27DOI: 10.1080/09599916.2021.1962951
Colin Jones, Abdulkader Mostafa
ABSTRACT Unlike many other countries, Britain had a weak private rented sector (PRS) in decline for most of the twentieth century. A revival began from the turn of the millennium. The platform for this rebirth was the removal of regulation and the arrival of buy to let (BTL) mortgages for individuals at competitive interest rates. The dynamic and rapid development of the PRS cannot be understood in isolation to the financial rewards that the sector was offering to its investors. This paper calculates the internal rate of return (IRR) from investing in BTL, since its inception in 1996. It uses a financial model to simulate average BTL purchases in eleven regions, investing in every year over the period from 1996 to 2015. The paper finds strong evidence that the early spectacular growth in the BTL market was stimulated and sustained by very attractive perceived rewards. Over the entire analysis period from 1996 to 2015, investors have attained an average IRR of 12%, compared to 5.8% from the stock market. The paper also finds that recent unfavourable tax changes lower the returns, but that the sector will continue to offer a much higher return than that offered by the equity market.
与许多其他国家不同，英国在20世纪的大部分时间里，私人租赁部门(PRS)都处于衰退状态。一场复兴始于千禧年之交。这种重生的平台是监管的取消和以竞争性利率为个人提供的buy - to - let (BTL)抵押贷款的出现。PRS的动态和快速发展不能孤立地与该部门向其投资者提供的财政回报分开来理解。本文计算了投资于BTL的内部收益率(IRR)，自1996年成立以来。它使用一个财务模型来模拟11个地区的平均BTL购买量，投资于1996年至2015年期间的每年。本文发现强有力的证据表明，BTL市场早期的惊人增长是由非常有吸引力的感知奖励刺激和维持的。在1996年至2015年的整个分析期间，投资者的平均内部收益率为12%，而股票市场的平均内部收益率为5.8%。论文还发现，最近不利的税收变化降低了回报率，但该行业将继续提供远高于股市的回报。
{"title":"The revival of private residential landlordism in Britain through the prism of changing returns","authors":"Colin Jones, Abdulkader Mostafa","doi":"10.1080/09599916.2021.1962951","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/09599916.2021.1962951","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Unlike many other countries, Britain had a weak private rented sector (PRS) in decline for most of the twentieth century. A revival began from the turn of the millennium. The platform for this rebirth was the removal of regulation and the arrival of buy to let (BTL) mortgages for individuals at competitive interest rates. The dynamic and rapid development of the PRS cannot be understood in isolation to the financial rewards that the sector was offering to its investors. This paper calculates the internal rate of return (IRR) from investing in BTL, since its inception in 1996. It uses a financial model to simulate average BTL purchases in eleven regions, investing in every year over the period from 1996 to 2015. The paper finds strong evidence that the early spectacular growth in the BTL market was stimulated and sustained by very attractive perceived rewards. Over the entire analysis period from 1996 to 2015, investors have attained an average IRR of 12%, compared to 5.8% from the stock market. The paper also finds that recent unfavourable tax changes lower the returns, but that the sector will continue to offer a much higher return than that offered by the equity market.","PeriodicalId":45726,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Property Research","volume":"39 1","pages":"56 - 76"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2021-07-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45209052","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-05-27DOI: 10.1080/09599916.2021.1930108
Abdul-Rasheed Amidu, D. Levy, Muhammed Bolomope
ABSTRACT Valuation quality is a complex, multifaceted construct deeply embedded within curriculum and the standards documents of property valuation professional practice, yet explicit discussion of how the concept is currently understood and approached within the valuation process is lacking in literature. The aim of this study is to contribute to the interpretation of valuation quality by exploring how it is conceptualised from the perspective of valuers in practice. Drawing on 19 semi-structured, in-depth interviews, the study explores the experiences of practising valuers, active in the cities of Auckland and Wellington, New Zealand. The findings provide insights into four important quality indicators: professionalism; effective and customised communication; reporting accuracy; and compliance obligations, which accommodate the practical meaning of valuation quality and enable a nuanced understanding of the various behaviours or acts (e.g., production of readable report and telling a clear story of process) and objects (e.g., aesthetic, collaborations and standards) that firms and individuals create and rely on to produce quality in practice. These insights can provide the basis for a robust description of valuers’ expectation and the development of a framework for valuation quality to enhance valuer training and professional development. Future research should focused on how these quality indicators match up to the client’s expectations.
{"title":"Conceptualising valuation quality in practice: a valuer perspective","authors":"Abdul-Rasheed Amidu, D. Levy, Muhammed Bolomope","doi":"10.1080/09599916.2021.1930108","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/09599916.2021.1930108","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Valuation quality is a complex, multifaceted construct deeply embedded within curriculum and the standards documents of property valuation professional practice, yet explicit discussion of how the concept is currently understood and approached within the valuation process is lacking in literature. The aim of this study is to contribute to the interpretation of valuation quality by exploring how it is conceptualised from the perspective of valuers in practice. Drawing on 19 semi-structured, in-depth interviews, the study explores the experiences of practising valuers, active in the cities of Auckland and Wellington, New Zealand. The findings provide insights into four important quality indicators: professionalism; effective and customised communication; reporting accuracy; and compliance obligations, which accommodate the practical meaning of valuation quality and enable a nuanced understanding of the various behaviours or acts (e.g., production of readable report and telling a clear story of process) and objects (e.g., aesthetic, collaborations and standards) that firms and individuals create and rely on to produce quality in practice. These insights can provide the basis for a robust description of valuers’ expectation and the development of a framework for valuation quality to enhance valuer training and professional development. Future research should focused on how these quality indicators match up to the client’s expectations.","PeriodicalId":45726,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Property Research","volume":"38 1","pages":"213 - 237"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2021-05-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/09599916.2021.1930108","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47704851","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-04-25DOI: 10.1080/09599916.2021.1918222
M. Mooya
ABSTRACT This paper introduces Hume’s law (the fulcrum of the ‘is-ought’ problem of moral philosophy) into the property valuation literature, and uses it as a prism to reflect on the nature and limitations of standard valuation theory. The paper shows how a consideration of Hume’ thesis can help to clarify and solve some specific practical problems in property valuation. The opportunity presented by the subject of property valuation is, in turn, used to reflect back on Hume’s thesis itself, to show conditions under which Hume’s law may be said to be false. The paper makes important contributions both to the property valuation literature and to the literature on moral philosophy. With respect to property valuation, it proposes a change in the manner conclusions of valuations are reported, and the replacement of the notion of valuation accuracy by the wider and more socially appropriate concept of reasonableness.
{"title":"Hume’s guillotine - the ‘is-ought’ problem in property valuation theory","authors":"M. Mooya","doi":"10.1080/09599916.2021.1918222","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/09599916.2021.1918222","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT This paper introduces Hume’s law (the fulcrum of the ‘is-ought’ problem of moral philosophy) into the property valuation literature, and uses it as a prism to reflect on the nature and limitations of standard valuation theory. The paper shows how a consideration of Hume’ thesis can help to clarify and solve some specific practical problems in property valuation. The opportunity presented by the subject of property valuation is, in turn, used to reflect back on Hume’s thesis itself, to show conditions under which Hume’s law may be said to be false. The paper makes important contributions both to the property valuation literature and to the literature on moral philosophy. With respect to property valuation, it proposes a change in the manner conclusions of valuations are reported, and the replacement of the notion of valuation accuracy by the wider and more socially appropriate concept of reasonableness.","PeriodicalId":45726,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Property Research","volume":"39 1","pages":"77 - 96"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2021-04-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/09599916.2021.1918222","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45570965","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-04-22DOI: 10.1080/09599916.2021.1913441
N. Crosby, Steven Devaney, C. Lizieri, Nick Mansley
ABSTRACT Commercial real estate occupier markets are analysed in the context of the debate over the role of real estate lending in financial stability and the search for long-term valuation methods to complement market value estimations. Models of sustainable rent, including a long-term trend model and an econometric equilibrium rent model, are tested to examine whether they provide early warning of upcoming corrections in real rental values. Models were estimated using rental value data for the UK and predictions of corrections from the mid-1980s through to 2018/9 and were then compared against actual real rental growth. The models were successful in identifying the occupier market crash of the 1990s and the more muted downturn of the early 2000s, but were less successful at predicting the falls in real rental value that followed the GFC in 2008/9. There is a late reaction to this downturn in estimates from the econometric model, while other approaches struggled to identify it at all. Econometric modelling of sustainable rental values is the recommended approach and could be used in conjunction with a model of sustainable cap rates to develop long-term valuations. This would aid lending decisions and provide evidence for regulators of cyclical movements in CRE markets. For the UK, there are data issues related to this recommendation, especially concerning stock data.
{"title":"Modelling sustainable rents for estimation of long-term or fundamental values of commercial real estate","authors":"N. Crosby, Steven Devaney, C. Lizieri, Nick Mansley","doi":"10.1080/09599916.2021.1913441","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/09599916.2021.1913441","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Commercial real estate occupier markets are analysed in the context of the debate over the role of real estate lending in financial stability and the search for long-term valuation methods to complement market value estimations. Models of sustainable rent, including a long-term trend model and an econometric equilibrium rent model, are tested to examine whether they provide early warning of upcoming corrections in real rental values. Models were estimated using rental value data for the UK and predictions of corrections from the mid-1980s through to 2018/9 and were then compared against actual real rental growth. The models were successful in identifying the occupier market crash of the 1990s and the more muted downturn of the early 2000s, but were less successful at predicting the falls in real rental value that followed the GFC in 2008/9. There is a late reaction to this downturn in estimates from the econometric model, while other approaches struggled to identify it at all. Econometric modelling of sustainable rental values is the recommended approach and could be used in conjunction with a model of sustainable cap rates to develop long-term valuations. This would aid lending decisions and provide evidence for regulators of cyclical movements in CRE markets. For the UK, there are data issues related to this recommendation, especially concerning stock data.","PeriodicalId":45726,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Property Research","volume":"39 1","pages":"30 - 55"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2021-04-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/09599916.2021.1913441","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48403734","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-04-13DOI: 10.1080/09599916.2021.1890187
Prodosh E. Simlai
ABSTRACT
In this paper, we introduce machine-learning (ML) methods to evaluate one of the key concepts of real estate analysis – the prediction of housing prices in the presence of a large number of covariates. We use several supervised ML tools that are based on regularisation methods – notably Ridge, LASSO, and Elastic Net regressions – and discuss their relative performance in comparison to conventional OLS-based methods. Our empirical results show that the supervised ML methods provide a comprehensive description of the determinants of owner-occupied housing values in the census tracts of California. We find that, compared to the familiar worlds of OLS and WLS, the Ridge, LASSO, and Elastic Net regressions provide relatively better out-of-sample predictions. Among the benefits of shrinkage-based ML methods are their ability to resolve such issues as variable selection and overfitting.
{"title":"Predicting owner-occupied housing values using machine learning: an empirical investigation of California census tracts data","authors":"Prodosh E. Simlai","doi":"10.1080/09599916.2021.1890187","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/09599916.2021.1890187","url":null,"abstract":"<p><b>ABSTRACT</b></p><p>In this paper, we introduce machine-learning (ML) methods to evaluate one of the key concepts of real estate analysis – the prediction of housing prices in the presence of a large number of covariates. We use several supervised ML tools that are based on regularisation methods – notably Ridge, LASSO, and Elastic Net regressions – and discuss their relative performance in comparison to conventional OLS-based methods. Our empirical results show that the supervised ML methods provide a comprehensive description of the determinants of owner-occupied housing values in the census tracts of California. We find that, compared to the familiar worlds of OLS and WLS, the Ridge, LASSO, and Elastic Net regressions provide relatively better out-of-sample predictions. Among the benefits of shrinkage-based ML methods are their ability to resolve such issues as variable selection and overfitting.</p>","PeriodicalId":45726,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Property Research","volume":"10 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2021-04-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138509636","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-04-08DOI: 10.1080/09599916.2021.1906732
A. Gupta, P. Das
ABSTRACT Private equity real estate (PERE) markets suffer from information inefficiency. In this study, we examine if Google Trends could help in partially mitigating the inefficiency issues. Using monthly PERE investment activities in India between 2005 and 2017, and controlling for macroeconomic variables, we show that relevant search trends are significantly associated with future investment activities. Compared to domestic investors, foreign investors are subject to information asymmetry and their investment activity is particularly sensitive to political search trends in the target country. We detect a mutually causal association between investment activity and political searches. Although significant, the effect of political Google Trends on investment activity is short-lived and fades within two months.
{"title":"Asymmetric political attention across foreign and domestic private equity real estate investors","authors":"A. Gupta, P. Das","doi":"10.1080/09599916.2021.1906732","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/09599916.2021.1906732","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Private equity real estate (PERE) markets suffer from information inefficiency. In this study, we examine if Google Trends could help in partially mitigating the inefficiency issues. Using monthly PERE investment activities in India between 2005 and 2017, and controlling for macroeconomic variables, we show that relevant search trends are significantly associated with future investment activities. Compared to domestic investors, foreign investors are subject to information asymmetry and their investment activity is particularly sensitive to political search trends in the target country. We detect a mutually causal association between investment activity and political searches. Although significant, the effect of political Google Trends on investment activity is short-lived and fades within two months.","PeriodicalId":45726,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Property Research","volume":"39 1","pages":"1 - 29"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2021-04-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/09599916.2021.1906732","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43011478","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-04-06DOI: 10.1080/09599916.2021.1903067
Liesa Schrand, J. Freybote, Wolfgang Schaefers
ABSTRACT The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in the US reviews REIT financial statements at least every three years. In these reviews, it adopts the perspective of an investor in evaluating the disclosure of REITs and asks questions an investor would ask. If any disclosure deficiencies are identified, the SEC sends a comment letter to the REIT requesting clarification, more discussion or corrections/improvements in future filings. We investigate the response of REIT investors to the public release of comment letter correspondences between the SEC and publicly traded equity REITs as well as the impact of different types of SEC comments on this response. Using a sample of 395 comment letter correspondences for annual reports (10-Ks) over the period of 2006 to 2019, we find a negative stock market response. Business-related SEC comments are most important in explaining the market response, but only for less transparent REITs. Our results suggest that SEC comment letters may improve the information environment for certain types of REITs by providing new information relevant to forecasting future cash flows and/or signalling information about a REIT’s reporting quality.
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