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A Study of the Interplay between Intuition and Rationality in Valuation Decision Making 估价决策中直觉与理性的相互作用研究
IF 1.9 Q2 URBAN STUDIES Pub Date : 2019-10-02 DOI: 10.1080/09599916.2019.1687572
Abdul-Rasheed Amidu, D. Boyd, F. Gobet
ABSTRACT There is widespread acceptance that both intuition and rationality can play significant roles in valuation decision-making. However, a study that specifically examines how intuitive and rational approaches interact is still missing. This study addresses this gap by applying cognitive theories of information processing and using a very detailed analysis of verbal protocols to propose a model of cognitive structure that identifies and describes the reasoning of property valuers during a commercial valuation task. The empirical data suggest that valuers start with an established goal and then engage in analytical and intuitive thinking until a valuation outcome has been reached. It is argued that a major reason for effective valuation decision-making, in a real-world context, is that the cognitive processes required by experts’ analytical and intuitive thinking demonstrate greater degree of cohesiveness and interrelatedness. The ability of valuers to integrate more intuition into their largely rational decision-making process suggests the need for valuation professional organisations to formally acknowledge intuition as an important component of valuation professional competence and skill requirement and to customise professional valuers’ training and development programmes to facilitate the development of appropriate intuitive approaches for effective valuation decision-making.
人们普遍认为,直觉和理性在估值决策中都发挥着重要作用。然而,一项专门研究直觉和理性方法如何相互作用的研究仍然缺失。本研究通过应用信息处理的认知理论和对口头协议的非常详细的分析来解决这一差距,提出了一个认知结构模型,该模型可以识别和描述商业估价任务中财产估价师的推理。实证数据表明,评估者从一个既定的目标开始,然后进行分析和直觉思维,直到达到评估结果。有人认为,在现实世界中,有效的估值决策的一个主要原因是,专家的分析和直觉思维所需的认知过程表现出更大程度的凝聚力和相互关联性。估价师有能力将更多的直觉融入其基本理性的决策过程,这表明估值专业机构需要正式承认直觉是估值专业能力和技能要求的重要组成部分,并定制专业估价师的培训和发展计划,以促进开发适当的直觉方法,以进行有效的估值决策。
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引用次数: 6
What is a ‘competitive return’ to a landowner? Parkhurst Road and the new UK planning policy environment 什么是土地所有者的“竞争性回报”?帕克赫斯特路与英国新的规划政策环境
IF 1.9 Q2 URBAN STUDIES Pub Date : 2019-10-02 DOI: 10.1080/09599916.2019.1690028
N. Crosby, P. Wyatt
ABSTRACT In the UK, contributions from landowners towards the provision of affordable housing are obtained through a process of negotiation that centres on the financial viability of each development proposal. National Planning Practice Guidance, first published in 2014 and recently revised in 2018 and 2019, provides the Government framework for these negotiations and sets parameters for the financial viability appraisals. Failure to achieve levels of affordable housing set out in local plans has been attributed to ‘gaming’ strategies employed by landowners and developers within viability negotiations. This paper examines how planning guidance has influenced financial viability appraisals. A key issue within these appraisals is the determination of a suitable return to the landowner, known as Benchmark Land Value. Using a case study approach to investigate two planning appeals and a subsequent High Court decision concerning a residential development site in London, this paper demonstrates how planning policy and practice guidance on viability can lead to reduced planning obligations being delivered. It identifies the technical concerns that need to be addressed to enable appraisals to determine land prices that are fair to landowners, whilst delivering policy-compliant levels of affordable housing, and discusses whether the revised National Planning Guidance has made those changes.
在英国,土地所有者对提供经济适用房的贡献是通过以每个开发提案的财务可行性为中心的谈判过程获得的。《国家规划实践指南》于2014年首次发布,最近于2018年和2019年进行了修订,为这些谈判提供了政府框架,并为财务可行性评估设定了参数。由于土地所有者和开发商在可行性谈判中采用的“博弈”策略,未能达到当地计划中规定的经济适用房水平。本文探讨了规划指导如何影响财务可行性评价。这些评估中的一个关键问题是确定土地所有者的适当回报,即基准土地价值。本文采用案例研究的方法,调查了两个规划上诉和随后的高等法院关于伦敦住宅开发场地的裁决,展示了规划政策和可行性实践指导如何减少规划义务的履行。它确定了需要解决的技术问题,使评估能够确定对土地所有者公平的土地价格,同时提供符合政策的负担得起的住房水平,并讨论了修订后的国家规划指南是否做出了这些改变。
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引用次数: 4
Measuring the cointegration of housing types in Northern Ireland 衡量北爱尔兰住房类型的协整
IF 1.9 Q2 URBAN STUDIES Pub Date : 2019-10-02 DOI: 10.1080/09599916.2019.1688851
M. McCord, D. Lo, J. McCord, P. Davis, M. Haran
ABSTRACT The primary purpose of this paper is to examine the dynamic and Granger causal (inter) relationships between house prices and to empirically assess the co-movement in-house prices across different property types within Northern Ireland (NI). The Johansen cointegration, Granger causality tests and vector error correction model are applied to quarterly house price data for the NI housing market between Q1 1995 and Q2 2018 to determine whether price transmissions are propagated contemporaneously into both short-term and long-term price adjustments. The findings show the stylised facts of lead–lag relationships across property types in NI using long-term Granger causality tests that the performance of the Apartment sector systematically and consistently lagged behind all other residential property segments over the period. Indeed, the results indicate that there are obvious market filtration transmission pricing signals in operation in a Granger-causal fashion. Property price signals are observed to be transmitted from the more liquid owner-occupier-led Detached and Semi-detached segments to the Apartment segment, but not vice versa.
本文的主要目的是研究房价之间的动态和格兰杰因果(内部)关系,并实证评估北爱尔兰(NI)不同房地产类型的内部价格的共同运动。将约翰森协整、格兰杰因果检验和向量误差修正模型应用于1995年第一季度至2018年第二季度NI住房市场的季度房价数据,以确定价格传导是否同时传播到短期和长期价格调整中。研究结果显示,使用长期格兰杰因果关系测试,NI中不同房地产类型的领先滞后关系的规范化事实表明,公寓部门的表现在此期间系统且持续落后于所有其他住宅房地产部门。事实上,研究结果表明,在运行过程中存在明显的市场过滤传输定价信号,并呈格兰杰因果关系。观察到房地产价格信号从流动性更强的自住式和半独立式部分传递到公寓部分,但反之亦然。
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引用次数: 9
The Determinants of Executive Compensation in US REITs: Performance vs. Corporate Governance Factors 美国REITs高管薪酬的决定因素:绩效与公司治理因素
IF 1.9 Q2 URBAN STUDIES Pub Date : 2019-08-27 DOI: 10.1080/09599916.2019.1653955
Claudia Ascherl, Liesa Schrand, Wolfgang Schaefers, Sofia Dermisi
ABSTRACT The paper examines whether executive compensation packages within the US REIT industry are determined merely by performance or also by CEO power mechanisms that have an essential influence on board-level negotiations. We offer original insights into management compensation arrangements during and after the financial crisis. The relative importance of cash bonuses in CEO compensation contracts has more than halved after the crisis. Simultaneously, after the financial crisis, equity-based compensation became increasingly important. Concerning the pay-for-performance link, our results show no relationship during the financial crisis. However, after the crisis, we find a strong significant link between remuneration packages and corporate success.
摘要本文考察了美国房地产投资信托行业高管薪酬方案是仅由业绩决定,还是由对董事会层面谈判有重要影响的首席执行官权力机制决定。我们对金融危机期间和之后的管理层薪酬安排提供独到见解。危机发生后,现金奖金在CEO薪酬合同中的相对重要性减少了一半以上。与此同时,在金融危机之后,基于股权的薪酬变得越来越重要。关于绩效工资挂钩,我们的研究结果显示,在金融危机期间没有任何关系。然而,在危机之后,我们发现薪酬待遇与企业成功之间存在着非常重要的联系。
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引用次数: 7
Tone in REIT financial statements and institutional investments 房地产投资信托基金财务报表和机构投资的基调
IF 1.9 Q2 URBAN STUDIES Pub Date : 2019-07-03 DOI: 10.1080/09599916.2019.1650802
Riëtte Carstens, J. Freybote
ABSTRACT We investigate the response of institutional REIT investors to the abnormally (net) positive tone in REIT financial statements. For non-REIT firms, sophisticated investors have been found to respond negatively to an abnormally positive tone due to managerial incentives to take advantage of information asymmetries and use a positive tone to manipulate investor perception. However, institutional REIT investors have an informational advantage as they either directly invest in commercial real estate as part of their portfolio management strategy or, at a minimum, have access to commercial real estate market data. Thus, they are able to evaluate the abnormally positive tone in REIT financial statements against their perception of conditions in the commercial real estate and derivative REIT market. For a sample of US REITs over the period of 2001 to 2017, we find that the response of institutional investors to the abnormally positive tone in REIT financial statements is time-varying and non-linear, irrespective of whether we use variables in levels or changes. In particular, in periods of institutional REIT investor optimism (pessimism), institutional REIT investors respond positively (negatively) to an abnormally positive tone and behave as net buyers (net sellers).
摘要:我们调查了机构REIT投资者对REIT财务报表中异常(净)积极基调的反应。对于非房地产投资信托公司,由于管理层利用信息不对称并使用积极语气操纵投资者感知的动机,成熟的投资者对异常积极的语气会做出负面反应。然而,机构REIT投资者具有信息优势,因为他们要么直接投资商业房地产,作为其投资组合管理战略的一部分,要么至少可以获得商业房地产市场数据。因此,他们能够根据他们对商业房地产和衍生品房地产投资信托市场状况的看法来评估房地产投资基金财务报表中异常积极的基调。对于2001年至2017年期间的美国REITs样本,我们发现机构投资者对REIT财务报表中异常积极基调的反应是时变的和非线性的,无论我们使用的是水平变量还是变化变量。特别是,在机构REIT投资者乐观(悲观)的时期,机构REIT的投资者对异常积极的语气做出积极(消极)的反应,表现为净买家(净卖家)。
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引用次数: 7
The impact of sale and leaseback on commercial real estate prices and initial yields in the UK 售后回租对英国商业房地产价格和初始收益率的影响
IF 1.9 Q2 URBAN STUDIES Pub Date : 2019-07-03 DOI: 10.1080/09599916.2019.1642370
Danielle Sanderson, Farazia Shakurina, Jolene Lim
ABSTRACT This research evaluates the impact of Sale and Leaseback (SLB) on UK commercial property prices and yields, compared with arms-length transactions. Data on 357 SLB deals and 1266 non-SLB deals are extracted from CoStar and EGI. Hedonic regressions and comparative analysis with the risk-free rate are undertaken. In addition to the SLB dummy variable, explanatory variables include building size, quality, age, sector, location and year of transaction. SLB transactions are found to occur at a statistically significant price premium, with the greatest premium occurring in the office sector. SLB properties achieve a 4.5 percentage point premium compared with the risk-free rate. The net initial yield of the SLB transaction sample is around 2 percentage points lower than for the non-SLB sample in every sector. Reasons for these differences are probed by considering the effect of WAULT and tenant covenant strength. From a vendor’s perspective, the results give an indication of the price premium they might be able to negotiate for their property compared with market prices. This will help them assess whether SLB is worthwhile compared with other available financing options. The findings of a yield reduction should help investors decide whether to engage in SLB investment.
摘要本研究评估了售后回租(SLB)对英国商业地产价格和收益的影响,并与公平交易进行了比较。357笔SLB交易和1266笔非SLB交易的数据提取自CoStar和EGI。并与无风险率进行了享乐回归和比较分析。除了SLB虚拟变量外,解释变量还包括建筑规模、质量、年龄、行业、位置和交易年份。SLB交易发生在统计上显著的价格溢价,最大的溢价发生在办公部门。与无风险资产相比,SLB资产获得4.5个百分点的溢价。在每个行业中,SLB交易样本的净初始收益率比非SLB交易样本低约2个百分点。通过考虑WAULT和租户契约强度的影响,探讨了这些差异的原因。从卖方的角度来看,这些结果表明,与市场价格相比,他们可以为自己的房产讨价还价的价格溢价。这将有助于他们评估与其他可用的融资方案相比,SLB是否值得。收益率下降的研究结果应该有助于投资者决定是否从事SLB投资。
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引用次数: 8
Sales comparison approach, multiple regression analysis and the implicit prices of housing 销售比较法、多元回归分析与住房隐性价格
IF 1.9 Q2 URBAN STUDIES Pub Date : 2019-07-03 DOI: 10.1080/09599916.2019.1651755
Gaetano Lisi
ABSTRACT By using two of the main evaluation methods, namely the sales comparison approach and the multiple regression analysis, this paper points out the key role of implicit prices of housing characteristics in real estate appraisal. Firstly, this paper confirms the close link existing between the sales comparison approach and the multiple regression analysis. Furthermore, unlike examples in the related literature, this paper highlights the difference between marginal and implicit prices of housing characteristics. Although the related literature expresses awareness of the methodology for calculating marginal and implicit prices, there appears to be less awareness that implicit prices can: 1) lead to an estimate of the house price that is different from the regression model-predicted price; 2) replace the crucial and non-trivial phase of adjustment and reconciliation that characterises the main appraisal method, namely, the popular Sales Comparison Approach. Finally, an empirical analysis provides evidence of the key role of implicit prices in estimating house value.
摘要本文运用两种主要的评估方法,即销售比较法和多元回归分析法,指出了住房特征隐性价格在房地产评估中的关键作用。首先,本文证实了销售比较法与多元回归分析法之间的紧密联系。此外,与相关文献中的例子不同,本文强调了住房特征的边际价格和隐含价格之间的差异。虽然相关文献表达了对计算边际价格和隐含价格的方法的认识,但似乎没有意识到隐含价格可以:1)导致与回归模型预测价格不同的房价估计;2)取代作为主要评估方法特征的关键和重要的调整和核对阶段,即流行的销售比较法。最后,实证分析提供了隐性价格在估计房屋价值中的关键作用的证据。
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引用次数: 6
Urban development and cooperation games 城市发展与合作游戏
IF 1.9 Q2 URBAN STUDIES Pub Date : 2019-05-20 DOI: 10.1080/09599916.2019.1615977
Anders Eika
ABSTRACT This paper investigates what makes developers and municipal planning authorities more (or less) likely to cooperate. It borrows methods from behavioural economics for eliciting the propensity of cooperation in different groups under different circumstances. Participants from private development companies, public planning, and related fields have played simple games in which they chose whether to cooperate in an urban transformation scenario (N = 269). By altering minor details, we learn about what makes people cooperate. The paper is able to quantify some human biases affecting the actions we observe in development projects: The findings indicate that people tend to be more cooperative towards people from the same sector, are less likely to cooperate in riskier scenarios, and in situations where some group members have fewer resources to contribute to the cooperative effort. Hopefully, the novelty of using economic experiments on planning and property development decision making could serve as an inspiration for other researchers in the field, although the methodology does carry limited external validity.
摘要本文调查了开发商和市政规划部门合作的可能性。它借用了行为经济学的方法来激发不同群体在不同情况下的合作倾向。来自私人开发公司、公共规划和相关领域的参与者玩了一些简单的游戏,在游戏中他们选择是否在城市转型场景中合作(N=269)。通过改变微小的细节,我们了解到是什么让人们合作。这篇论文能够量化影响我们在发展项目中观察到的行动的一些人类偏见:研究结果表明,人们倾向于对来自同一部门的人更加合作,在风险更大的情况下不太可能合作,在一些群体成员为合作努力贡献的资源更少的情况下。希望在规划和房地产开发决策中使用经济实验的新颖性可以激励该领域的其他研究人员,尽管该方法的外部有效性有限。
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引用次数: 2
Firm and industry informational content from REIT FFO announcements REIT FFO公告中的公司和行业信息内容
IF 1.9 Q2 URBAN STUDIES Pub Date : 2019-04-03 DOI: 10.1080/09599916.2019.1589554
William G. Hardin, Gow-Cheng Huang, Kartono Liano, Ming-Shiun Pan
ABSTRACT Conveyance of information associated with REIT FFO announcements is investigated by decomposing stock returns into three components: firm-specific, industry-level and market-wide. The relative importance of firm-specific and industry information is evaluated around and following FFO announcements. The initial market reaction to REIT FFO announcements is primarily driven by the firm-specific return component. The underreaction to firm-specific information appears in drift after the announcement, especially for negative FFO surprises. FFO surprises explain the firm-specific return component, but not the industry-level return component which further suggests that FFO announcements only convey firm-specific information.
摘要:通过将股票回报分解为三个组成部分:特定公司、行业层面和整个市场,来研究与REIT FFO公告相关的信息传递。具体企业和行业信息的相对重要性在FFO公告前后进行评估。市场对REIT FFO公告的最初反应主要是由公司特定回报部分推动的。对公司特定信息的反应不足在公告后出现漂移,尤其是对于负面的FFO意外。FFO意外解释了公司特定的回报成分,但没有解释行业层面的回报成分。这进一步表明,FFO公告只传达公司特定的信息。
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引用次数: 4
Spatial and temporal impacts on building depreciation 建筑折旧的时空影响
IF 1.9 Q2 URBAN STUDIES Pub Date : 2019-04-03 DOI: 10.1080/09599916.2019.1602844
Jaime Armengot, B. Williams, J. F. Padial
ABSTRACT This article explores the relationship between new housing and the existing housing stock in terms of an urban market value hierarchy, considering the importance of the concept of depreciation, as influenced by three factors: the age, location and quality of the building. Based on a sample from the Almond area of Madrid City Centre, the research considers many variables and applies an adapted appraisal approach termed differential depreciation to analyse the evidence of real estate values and the influence of spatial and temporal location factors. The study of the role of depreciation in the value of housing used in this research provides researchers with objective criteria on the functioning of the urban land market. This shows that the relationship between depreciation and the need for renovation is not linear, but instead follows identifiable patterns linked to the era of construction rather than solely the age of the building.
摘要本文从城市市场价值等级的角度探讨了新房和存量房之间的关系,考虑到折旧概念的重要性,折旧受三个因素的影响:建筑的年龄、位置和质量。基于马德里市中心阿尔蒙德地区的样本,该研究考虑了许多变量,并应用了一种称为差异折旧的适应性评估方法来分析房地产价值的证据以及空间和时间位置因素的影响。本研究中对折旧在住房价值中的作用的研究为研究人员提供了关于城市土地市场运作的客观标准。这表明,折旧和翻新需求之间的关系不是线性的,而是遵循与建筑时代相关的可识别模式,而不仅仅是与建筑年代相关。
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引用次数: 0
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Journal of Property Research
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