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Sports League Profit and Market Sizes 体育联盟的利润和市场规模
IF 1 4区 经济学 Pub Date : 2024-02-01 DOI: 10.32731/ijsf/191.022024.02
Jason Winfree, Connor Allen, Stefan Szymanski
It is often assumed that sports leagues should have teams in the largest markets. However, a very basic model of a sports league shows that, depending on talent investment’s role in team revenue, this assumption is not necessarily true. Heterogeneity in markets sizes can not only decrease costs but also increase expected league revenue. Having a smaller market leads to more wins for the larger market team and less competition for playing talent. Therefore, leagues may prefer smaller markets for expansion teams or team relocation. Given that leagues typically want larger markets, the paper investigates how the basic model of a sports league may be lacking. If leagues want competitive balance or more absolute talent, it may cause leagues to pursue larger markets.
人们通常认为,体育联盟应该在最大的市场拥有球队。然而,一个非常基本的体育联盟模型表明,根据人才投资在球队收入中的作用,这一假设并不一定成立。市场规模的异质性不仅能降低成本,还能增加联盟的预期收入。市场规模较小,市场规模较大的球队就能获得更多的胜利,对球员的竞争也会减少。因此,联盟可能更倾向于选择较小的市场来扩充球队或搬迁球队。鉴于联盟通常希望拥有更大的市场,本文研究了体育联盟的基本模式可能存在的不足。如果联盟希望竞争平衡或拥有更多的绝对人才,这可能会导致联盟追求更大的市场。
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引用次数: 0
A Long Run Look at FBS Football Attendance FBS 足球上座率的长期观察
IF 1 4区 经济学 Pub Date : 2024-02-01 DOI: 10.32731/ijsf/191.022024.04
Paul A. Natke, Gregory Falls, Linlan Xiao
A balanced panel (99 teams over 40 years) is used to estimate three regression models: average attendance via fixed and random effects plus Tobit estimation of percent of capacity. Variables are either stationary or cointegrated. Estimation makes adjustments for serial correlation and endogeneity between several variables. Independent variables measure economic conditions, demographic characteristics, and team performance. Attendance is a normal good. Travel cost is insignificant in two models but positive in one. Weak evidence suggests undergraduate enrollment and county population exert a positive impact. Three team performance measures and power ranking scores exert consistent positive impacts. Stadium renovations that increase capacity also increase attendance while those that reduce capacity are insignificant except in the percent of capacity equation. Attendance responses vary, either in sign or significance, across Power Five and Group of Five teams for eight of 10 independent variables. Specification tests suggest that random effects estimation is preferred.
使用平衡面板(40 年中的 99 支球队)估算三个回归模型:通过固定效应和随机效应估算平均上座率,以及对容量百分比的 Tobit 估算。变量要么是静态的,要么是协整的。估算对多个变量之间的序列相关性和内生性进行了调整。独立变量衡量经济状况、人口特征和球队表现。上座率为正态商品。差旅费在两个模型中不显著,但在一个模型中为正值。微弱的证据表明,本科生入学率和县人口数量会产生积极影响。三项球队表现衡量指标和实力排名得分产生了一致的积极影响。增加容量的体育场馆改造也会增加上座率,而减少容量的改造除了在容量百分比方程中不显著外,其他都不显著。在 10 个自变量中,有 8 个自变量对五强球队和五大联赛球队上座率的影响在符号或显著性上存在差异。规格测试表明,随机效应估计更为可取。
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引用次数: 0
A Long Run Look at FBS Football Attendance FBS 足球上座率的长期观察
IF 1 4区 经济学 Pub Date : 2024-02-01 DOI: 10.32731/ijsf/191.022024.04
Paul A. Natke, Gregory Falls, Linlan Xiao
A balanced panel (99 teams over 40 years) is used to estimate three regression models: average attendance via fixed and random effects plus Tobit estimation of percent of capacity. Variables are either stationary or cointegrated. Estimation makes adjustments for serial correlation and endogeneity between several variables. Independent variables measure economic conditions, demographic characteristics, and team performance. Attendance is a normal good. Travel cost is insignificant in two models but positive in one. Weak evidence suggests undergraduate enrollment and county population exert a positive impact. Three team performance measures and power ranking scores exert consistent positive impacts. Stadium renovations that increase capacity also increase attendance while those that reduce capacity are insignificant except in the percent of capacity equation. Attendance responses vary, either in sign or significance, across Power Five and Group of Five teams for eight of 10 independent variables. Specification tests suggest that random effects estimation is preferred.
使用平衡面板(40 年中的 99 支球队)估算三个回归模型:通过固定效应和随机效应估算平均上座率,以及对容量百分比的 Tobit 估算。变量要么是静态的,要么是协整的。估算对多个变量之间的序列相关性和内生性进行了调整。独立变量衡量经济状况、人口特征和球队表现。上座率为正态商品。旅行成本在两个模型中不显著,但在一个模型中为正值。微弱的证据表明,本科生入学率和县人口数量会产生积极影响。三项球队表现衡量指标和实力排名得分产生了一致的积极影响。增加容量的体育场馆改造也会增加上座率,而减少容量的改造除了在容量百分比方程中不显著外,其他都不显著。在 10 个自变量中,有 8 个自变量对五强球队和五大联赛球队上座率的影响在符号或显著性上存在差异。规格测试表明,随机效应估计更为可取。
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引用次数: 0
Sports League Profit and Market Sizes 体育联盟的利润和市场规模
IF 1 4区 经济学 Pub Date : 2024-02-01 DOI: 10.32731/ijsf/191.022024.02
Jason Winfree, Connor Allen, Stefan Szymanski
It is often assumed that sports leagues should have teams in the largest markets. However, a very basic model of a sports league shows that, depending on talent investment’s role in team revenue, this assumption is not necessarily true. Heterogeneity in markets sizes can not only decrease costs but also increase expected league revenue. Having a smaller market leads to more wins for the larger market team and less competition for playing talent. Therefore, leagues may prefer smaller markets for expansion teams or team relocation. Given that leagues typically want larger markets, the paper investigates how the basic model of a sports league may be lacking. If leagues want competitive balance or more absolute talent, it may cause leagues to pursue larger markets.
人们通常认为,体育联盟应该在最大的市场拥有球队。然而,一个非常基本的体育联盟模型表明,根据人才投资在球队收入中的作用,这一假设并不一定成立。市场规模的异质性不仅能降低成本,还能增加联盟的预期收入。市场规模较小,市场规模较大的球队就能获得更多的胜利,对球员的竞争也会减少。因此,联盟可能更倾向于选择较小的市场来扩充球队或搬迁球队。鉴于联盟通常希望拥有更大的市场,本文研究了体育联盟的基本模式可能存在的不足。如果联盟希望竞争平衡或拥有更多的绝对人才,这可能会导致联盟追求更大的市场。
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引用次数: 0
Spectators or Influencers? The Crowd Effect Upon Winning in the NFL: A Natural Experiment 观众还是影响者?人群对 NFL 获胜的影响:自然实验
IF 1 4区 经济学 Pub Date : 2024-02-01 DOI: 10.32731/ijsf/191.022024.01
J. Ehrlich, Joel Potter, Shane Sanders, Rodney Paul
Previous research has determined that home field advantage (HFA) is positively related to crowd density. Isolating this effect is a substantial empirical challenge as crowd density is endogenous with home win-likelihood via fan interest. We consider a natural-experimental setting that introduces exogenous crowd-density variation into National Football League (NFL) games. COVID-19 safety protocols allow us to disentangle crowd-presence, crowd-density, and built-environment effects upon HFA. We find strong evidence that crowd presence is a significant, substantial source of HFA, but crowd density is not. No-crowd games in 2020 featured no measurable HFA conditional upon team strengths, whereas partially fan-restricted games featured no significant decline in HFA relative to games without crowd restrictions (2016‒2019 and 2021). Results suggest HFA is fully attributable to crowd presence, with no evidence of stadium familiarity or travel distance effects. Betting markets efficiently predicted the partial-crowd effect from season’s outset but adjusted incrementally (behaviorally) to incorporate the true no-crowd effect only by season’s end.
以往的研究表明,主场优势(HFA)与观众密度呈正相关。由于观众密度是通过球迷的兴趣与主场获胜可能性内生的,因此将这种效应分离出来是一项巨大的经验挑战。我们考虑了一种自然-实验环境,即在全国橄榄球联盟(NFL)比赛中引入外生人群密度变化。COVID-19 安全协议使我们能够区分人群存在、人群密度和建筑环境对 HFA 的影响。我们发现有力的证据表明,人群的存在是 HFA 的一个重要的实质性来源,但人群密度并非如此。2020 年没有观众的比赛,根据球队实力,没有可测量的 HFA,而部分有球迷限制的比赛,相对于没有观众限制的比赛(2016-2019 年和 2021 年),HFA 没有显著下降。结果表明,HFA 完全归因于人群的存在,没有证据表明有体育场熟悉度或旅行距离的影响。投注市场从赛季一开始就有效地预测了部分人群效应,但到赛季结束时才逐步调整(行为)以纳入真正的无人群效应。
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引用次数: 0
Spectators or Influencers? The Crowd Effect Upon Winning in the NFL: A Natural Experiment 观众还是影响者?人群对 NFL 获胜的影响:自然实验
IF 1 4区 经济学 Pub Date : 2024-02-01 DOI: 10.32731/ijsf/191.022024.01
J. Ehrlich, Joel Potter, Shane Sanders, Rodney Paul
Previous research has determined that home field advantage (HFA) is positively related to crowd density. Isolating this effect is a substantial empirical challenge as crowd density is endogenous with home win-likelihood via fan interest. We consider a natural-experimental setting that introduces exogenous crowd-density variation into National Football League (NFL) games. COVID-19 safety protocols allow us to disentangle crowd-presence, crowd-density, and built-environment effects upon HFA. We find strong evidence that crowd presence is a significant, substantial source of HFA, but crowd density is not. No-crowd games in 2020 featured no measurable HFA conditional upon team strengths, whereas partially fan-restricted games featured no significant decline in HFA relative to games without crowd restrictions (2016‒2019 and 2021). Results suggest HFA is fully attributable to crowd presence, with no evidence of stadium familiarity or travel distance effects. Betting markets efficiently predicted the partial-crowd effect from season’s outset but adjusted incrementally (behaviorally) to incorporate the true no-crowd effect only by season’s end.
以往的研究表明,主场优势(HFA)与观众密度呈正相关。由于观众密度是通过球迷的兴趣与主场获胜可能性内生的,因此将这种效应分离出来是一项巨大的经验挑战。我们考虑了一种自然-实验环境,即在全国橄榄球联盟(NFL)比赛中引入外生人群密度变化。COVID-19 安全协议使我们能够区分人群存在、人群密度和建筑环境对 HFA 的影响。我们发现有力的证据表明,人群的存在是 HFA 的一个重要的实质性来源,但人群密度并非如此。2020 年没有观众的比赛,根据球队实力,没有可测量的 HFA,而部分有球迷限制的比赛,相对于没有观众限制的比赛(2016-2019 年和 2021 年),HFA 没有显著下降。结果表明,HFA 完全归因于人群的存在,没有证据表明有体育场熟悉度或旅行距离的影响。投注市场从赛季一开始就有效地预测了部分人群效应,但到赛季结束时才逐步调整(行为)以纳入真正的无人群效应。
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引用次数: 0
The Appraisal of Players’ Transfer Market Values: Empirical Evidence From Italian Serie A 球员转会市场价值评估:来自意大利足球甲级联赛的经验证据
IF 1 4区 经济学 Pub Date : 2024-02-01 DOI: 10.32731/ijsf/191.022024.03
Marco Di Domizio, Raul Caruso, Bernd Frick
This paper focuses on the determinants of transfer market valuations of Italian top division football players over the period 2007‒2017. We use data provided by transfermarkt.de to estimate the association between players’ characteristics and their transfer valuation. Additionally, by applying panel regression techniques, we separate team and season effects from individual attributes. We find an inverted U-shaped association with age and a positive association with goals, assists, and minutes played in national and international competitions. Moreover, the financial sustainability of the clubs appears to be a key factor since potential accountability turmoil may cause a reduction in the bargaining power of clubs and on the players’ market values consequently. Finally, season fixed effects show a statistically significant and strong negative trend of players’ market appraisals. That result should be taken seriously by representatives of Serie A League as well as the Italian Football Federation because the recently pursued strategy of adjusting the decrease of conventional revenues (e.g., ticket sales, TV rights and sponsorship) with the capital gains coming from player transfers proves to be rather risky.
本文主要研究 2007-2017 年间意大利足球甲级联赛球员转会市场估值的决定因素。我们使用transfermarkt.de提供的数据来估算球员特征与其转会估值之间的关联。此外,通过运用面板回归技术,我们将球队和赛季效应从个人属性中分离出来。我们发现,球员的年龄与转会价值呈倒 U 型关系,而进球数、助攻数以及在国内和国际比赛中的出场时间则与转会价值呈正相关。此外,俱乐部的财务可持续性似乎也是一个关键因素,因为潜在的责任动荡可能会导致俱乐部的议价能力下降,从而影响球员的市场价值。最后,赛季固定效应显示,球员的市场价值在统计上呈显著且强烈的负趋势。意甲联赛和意大利足协的代表们应该认真对待这一结果,因为最近推行的用球员转会带来的资本收益来调整传统收入(如门票销售、电视转播权和赞助)减少的战略被证明是相当冒险的。
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引用次数: 0
The Appraisal of Players’ Transfer Market Values: Empirical Evidence From Italian Serie A 球员转会市场价值评估:来自意大利足球甲级联赛的经验证据
IF 1 4区 经济学 Pub Date : 2024-02-01 DOI: 10.32731/ijsf/191.022024.03
Marco Di Domizio, Raul Caruso, Bernd Frick
This paper focuses on the determinants of transfer market valuations of Italian top division football players over the period 2007‒2017. We use data provided by transfermarkt.de to estimate the association between players’ characteristics and their transfer valuation. Additionally, by applying panel regression techniques, we separate team and season effects from individual attributes. We find an inverted U-shaped association with age and a positive association with goals, assists, and minutes played in national and international competitions. Moreover, the financial sustainability of the clubs appears to be a key factor since potential accountability turmoil may cause a reduction in the bargaining power of clubs and on the players’ market values consequently. Finally, season fixed effects show a statistically significant and strong negative trend of players’ market appraisals. That result should be taken seriously by representatives of Serie A League as well as the Italian Football Federation because the recently pursued strategy of adjusting the decrease of conventional revenues (e.g., ticket sales, TV rights and sponsorship) with the capital gains coming from player transfers proves to be rather risky.
本文主要研究 2007-2017 年间意大利足球甲级联赛球员转会市场估值的决定因素。我们使用transfermarkt.de提供的数据来估算球员特征与其转会估值之间的关联。此外,通过运用面板回归技术,我们将球队和赛季效应从个人属性中分离出来。我们发现,球员的年龄与转会价值呈倒 U 型关系,而进球数、助攻数以及在国内和国际比赛中的出场时间则与转会价值呈正相关。此外,俱乐部的财务可持续性似乎也是一个关键因素,因为潜在的责任动荡可能会导致俱乐部的议价能力下降,从而影响球员的市场价值。最后,赛季固定效应显示,球员的市场价值在统计上呈显著且强烈的负趋势。意甲联赛和意大利足协的代表们应该认真对待这一结果,因为最近推行的用球员转会带来的资本收益来调整传统收入(如门票销售、电视转播权和赞助)减少的战略被证明是相当冒险的。
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引用次数: 0
Re-Evaluating the Role of Attendance on Home Advantage: Evidence From an International Rugby Tournament 重新评估出勤率对主场优势的作用:来自国际橄榄球锦标赛的证据
4区 经济学 Pub Date : 2023-11-01 DOI: 10.32731/ijsf/184.112023.03
Peter Dawson, Paul Downward, Vincent Hogan, Patrick Massey
Home advantage has been documented in many sports. It is hypothesized that higher attendance, likely dominated by home-team supporters, can be a source of this advantage, either through influence on match officials or by spurring the home team to greater efforts relative to the away team. We examine this latter hypothesis using a dataset of 1,030 matches over eight seasons, 2012/2013 to 2019/2020, of the Pro14, one of the three major European rugby union leagues. Our results initially display strong evidence of home advantage. However, once we control for team quality, home advantage is significantly reduced. Further, our results also indicate that home advantage is not explained by the impact of attendances on team performance (effort).
主场优势在许多运动项目中都有记载。据推测,较高的上座率(很可能由主队支持者主导)可能是这种优势的一个来源,要么是通过对比赛官员的影响,要么是通过刺激主队比客队付出更大的努力。我们使用了Pro14(欧洲三大橄榄球联盟之一)2012/2013至2019/2020八个赛季的1030场比赛的数据集来检验后一种假设。我们的结果最初显示了主场优势的有力证据。然而,一旦我们控制了球队的素质,主场优势就会大大降低。此外,我们的研究结果还表明,主场优势不能用出勤率对团队绩效(努力)的影响来解释。
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引用次数: 0
College Football Television and Attendance: The Problem With Selection Bias 大学橄榄球电视转播和上座率:选择偏见的问题
4区 经济学 Pub Date : 2023-11-01 DOI: 10.32731/ijsf/184.112023.01
Jeremy Losak, Samuel Marteka, Mackenzie Mangos
Television coverage’s impact on college football attendance is a topic of debate. Between 2005 and 2019, annual growth in athletic department revenues for Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) schools from media rights, postseason football, and National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) conference distributions far exceeded revenue growth in ticket sales revenue. This study re-evaluates the substitution or complementarity of television coverage and stadium attendance in college football with updated data while controlling for selection bias through endogenous treatment regression. Although initial results reveal a positive correlation between television coverage and attendance, national coverage and attendance appear to be substitutes after controlling for selection bias. That said, from an attendance maximizing perspective, national coverage is preferable to lower-tiered coverage if a game is to be televised.
电视报道对大学橄榄球上座率的影响是一个有争议的话题。在2005年至2019年期间,橄榄球碗细分(FBS)学校体育部门从媒体版权、季后赛橄榄球和全国大学体育协会(NCAA)会议分配中获得的收入的年增长率远远超过了门票销售收入的增长。本研究利用更新后的数据,重新评估电视转播与大学橄榄球球场上座率的替代或互补关系,并通过内源性处理回归控制选择偏差。虽然初步结果显示电视报道和出席率之间存在正相关关系,但在控制了选择偏差之后,全国报道和出席率似乎是替代关系。也就是说,从上座率最大化的角度来看,如果要进行电视转播,那么全国范围的报道比低层次的报道更可取。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
International Journal of Sport Finance
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