Climate Change Economics最新文献

英文中文

HOW THE SATELLITE CITY IS AFFECTING Co2 EMISSIONS 卫星城是如何影响二氧化碳排放的

IF 2.3 4区经济学 0 ECONOMICS

Climate Change Economics

Pub Date : 2021-10-06 DOI: 10.1142/s2010007822400012

Danqi Liao, Li-sha Guo, Gengyuan Liu, Feng Wu, Cao-cao Chen, XIN’AN Yin, Jingyan Xue, Qing Yang, Hui Li, M. Casazza

To achieve the Paris Agreement’s goals, many cities are building satellite cities to relieve the population and environment pressure of the central city. However, past experiences showed that long-term effects of such a solution were partially limited, due to limited attention on the effects of energy consumption and carbon emissions, depending on the dynamics of population and industrial development. This paper overcomes the previous limitations, applying a Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning model to the area of Xiong’an New District, an area extending from Hebei province (China) and nearby Beijing, is planned to support the development of Beijing. The proposed model was based on three different population migration, industrial and transposition scenarios to test their impacts on urban greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Results show that: (1) Increased population and building area will markedly increase GHG emissions from residential consumption in Hebei province, while slightly decrease GHG emissions in Beijing. (2) Green planning, including industrial structure changes, industrial transformation, will markedly decrease the GHG emissions in Hebei provinces and it can take down for the emissions increase due to the population migration. This paper proved the effectiveness of a multi-scalar, multi-dimensional, and multi-actor modeling approach for a satellite city and new town development planning, implying that a similar approach could be applied in planning and managing the development of future satellite cities.

为了实现《巴黎协定》的目标，许多城市都在建设卫星城，以缓解中心城市的人口和环境压力。但是，过去的经验表明，这种解决办法的长期效果部分有限，因为根据人口和工业发展的动态，对能源消耗和碳排放的影响的注意有限。本文克服了以往的局限性，将长期能源替代规划模型应用于雄安新区区域，这是一个从中国河北省延伸到北京附近的区域，旨在支持北京的发展。该模型基于三种不同的人口迁移、工业和迁移情景，以测试它们对城市温室气体排放的影响。结果表明:(1)人口和建筑面积的增加将显著增加河北省居民消费温室气体排放量，而北京居民消费温室气体排放量略有减少。(2)产业结构调整、产业转型等绿色规划对河北省温室气体排放有显著的抑制作用，对人口迁移造成的温室气体排放增加有一定的抵消作用。本文论证了多尺度、多维度、多主体的卫星城新城发展规划建模方法的有效性，为卫星城未来发展规划管理提供了借鉴。

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引用次数: 0

EXPLORING FAIR AND AMBITIOUS MITIGATION CONTRIBUTIONS OF ASIAN ECONOMIES FOR THE GLOBAL WARMING LIMIT UNDER THE PARIS AGREEMENT 探讨亚洲经济体为《巴黎协定》规定的全球变暖限制作出公平和雄心勃勃的减缓贡献

IF 2.3 4区经济学 0 ECONOMICS

Climate Change Economics

Pub Date : 2021-10-06 DOI: 10.1142/s2010007822400024

Xinru Li, Xuemei Jiang, Yan Xia

Focusing on the mitigation responsibilities and efforts, this paper provides a unified estimation of allowable emission quotas for a number of Asian economies to limit the global temperature rise well below 2°C based on a range of effort-sharing approaches. The study also explores the inconsistency between their planned emission pathways under the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and the allowable emissions to achieve the 2°C target. The results show that most of the Asian developing economies would be in favor of the Equal-Per-Capita and Grandfather criteria, for which they would obtain more allowable emissions quota. However, even with the most favorable criterion, official mitigation pledges represented by NDCs are far less enough for these developing Asian economies such as China, India, Vietnam, Thailand and Pakistan, as their emission pathways under NDCs significantly exceed the ideal pathways under all effort-sharing approaches. In contrast, most of the Asian developed economies have already planned reductions of annual CO2 emissions under NDCs, in line with their ideal pathways under the most favorable effort-sharing approach. However, their reductions of emissions require deep strengthening of deployment in low-carbon, zero-carbon and negative-carbon techniques, given the current growing trend of emissions for these economies.

本文以减缓责任和努力为重点，基于一系列共同努力的方法，对一些亚洲经济体的允许排放配额进行了统一估计，以将全球气温上升限制在2°C以下。该研究还探讨了它们在国家自主贡献(NDCs)下计划的排放路径与实现2°C目标的允许排放量之间的不一致性。结果表明，大多数亚洲发展中经济体将支持人均平等和祖父标准，因为它们将获得更多的允许排放配额。然而，即使采用最有利的标准，以国家自主贡献为代表的官方减排承诺对中国、印度、越南、泰国和巴基斯坦等亚洲发展中经济体来说也远远不够，因为它们在国家自主贡献下的排放路径大大超过了所有努力分担方法下的理想路径。相比之下，大多数亚洲发达经济体已经计划在国家自主贡献下减少每年的二氧化碳排放量，这符合他们在最有利的努力分担方法下的理想途径。然而，鉴于这些经济体目前的排放增长趋势，它们的减排需要深入加强低碳、零碳和负碳技术的部署。

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引用次数: 4

CLIMATE CHANGE AND COFFEE FARM RELOCATION IN ETHIOPIA: A REAL-OPTIONS APPROACH 埃塞俄比亚的气候变化和咖啡农场搬迁:一种现实选择方法

IF 2.3 4区经济学 0 ECONOMICS

Climate Change Economics

Pub Date : 2021-10-06 DOI: 10.1142/s2010007821500111

LUCA DI CORATO, TSEGAYE GINBO

Climate change and emerging pests and diseases may negatively affect coffee yields and revenues in Ethiopian regions at low altitudes. Hence, the relocation of coffee farms to regions at higher altitudes has been suggested in order to assure sustainability and resilience for Ethiopian coffee production. In this paper, we study how sunk establishment costs, uncertain net returns and policy-induced incentives may affect the timing and value of a coffee farm relocation. This is done by developing a real-options model taking into account the relevant drivers of the farmer’s decision to relocate. We then present an empirical analysis examining a hypothetical relocation. We show that relocation is a rather attractive opportunity even though the presence of volatile net returns and relatively high establishment costs may induce its postponement. Thus, we determine the optimal amount of subsidy needed in order to foster the relocation process.

气候变化和新出现的病虫害可能对埃塞俄比亚低海拔地区的咖啡产量和收入产生负面影响。因此，有人建议将咖啡农场搬迁到海拔较高的地区，以确保埃塞俄比亚咖啡生产的可持续性和复原力。本文研究了沉没建立成本、不确定净收益和政策激励如何影响咖啡农场搬迁的时机和价值。这是通过开发一个实际期权模型来实现的，该模型考虑了农民决定搬迁的相关驱动因素。然后，我们提出了一个实证分析，检验一个假设的搬迁。我们表明，搬迁是一个相当有吸引力的机会，即使存在不稳定的净回报和相对较高的设立成本可能导致其推迟。因此，我们确定了促进搬迁过程所需的最优补贴金额。

引用次数: 0

ENERGY INTENSIVE MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES AND GHG EMISSIONS. 能源密集型制造业和温室气体排放。

IF 2.3 4区经济学 0 ECONOMICS

Climate Change Economics

Pub Date : 2021-10-04 DOI: 10.1142/s201000782150010x

Jared Creason, Jameel Alsalam, Kong Chiu, Allen A Fawcett

This paper analyzes changes in U.S. energy-intensive, trade-exposed (EITE) manufacturing over the past decade, through the lens of previously proposed climate policy measures. The American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009 defined measures and thresholds for EITE eligibility and proposed compensatory allowances designed to reduce negative competitive impacts to domestic industry and to prevent emissions leakage. We undertook a retrospective analysis of the 2009 eligibility criteria, using the same methods with more recent data to examine trends over the 2004-2017 period. We find that energy intensity, emissions intensity, output, and emissions have fluctuated with economic conditions, and defining measures and thresholds that remain informative is challenging. Had ACES been enacted as written and not revised, the number of sectors qualifying for rebates would have decreased from 39 to 26, after adjustment for the changes in North American Industry Classification System definitions. Emissions from the eligible sectors fell 26% across the three periods of analysis, while emissions from manufacturing as a whole fell 5%. We decompose the changes in emissions into scale and intensity measures based on a hybrid measure derived from Grossman and Krueger [(1993). Environmental impacts of a North American free trade agreement. In The US-Mexico Free Trade Agreement, PM Garber (ed.). Cambridge, MA: MIT Press] and Kaya and Yokoburi [(1997). Environment, Energy, and Economy: Strategies for Sustainability. Tokyo: United Nations University Press]. As an alternative, we perform the same analyses using the EPA's Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program data. These data, not available when ACES was written, offer annual greenhouse gas estimates for facilities that emit more than 25,000 tons CO₂e annually. Finally, we draw some recommendations for future policy including (1) using measures that make price level adjustments straightforward or unnecessary, (2) keeping EITE policy focused on a small group of industries to minimize sectoral reclassification problems, (3) identifying industries prone to emissions leakage rather than just changes in output and (4) consider spatial heterogeneity of emissions and trade patterns.

本文通过先前提出的气候政策措施，分析了美国能源密集型、贸易暴露(EITE)制造业在过去十年中的变化。2009年的《美国清洁能源和安全法》规定了EITE资格的措施和门槛，并提出了补偿性津贴，旨在减少对国内工业的负面竞争影响，防止排放泄漏。我们对2009年的资格标准进行了回顾性分析，使用相同的方法和最近的数据来检查2004-2017年期间的趋势。我们发现，能源强度、排放强度、产出和排放量随着经济状况的变化而波动，确定仍然具有信息量的度量和阈值是具有挑战性的。如果ACES以书面形式颁布而不进行修订，在调整了北美工业分类系统定义的变化后，有资格获得退税的行业数量将从39个减少到26个。在三个分析期间，符合条件的行业的排放量下降了26%，而整个制造业的排放量下降了5%。我们根据Grossman和Krueger[(1993)]提出的混合度量方法，将排放变化分解为尺度和强度度量。北美自由贸易协定对环境的影响。《美墨自由贸易协定》，加伯总理主编。剑桥，马萨诸塞州:麻省理工学院出版社]和Kaya和Yokoburi[(1997)。环境、能源和经济:可持续发展战略。东京:联合国大学出版社。作为替代方案，我们使用EPA的温室气体报告计划数据执行相同的分析。这些数据提供了每年排放超过2.5万吨二氧化碳当量的设施的年度温室气体排放量，在ACES编写时还无法获得。最后，我们对未来的政策提出了一些建议，包括:(1)使用使价格水平调整变得直接或不必要的措施;(2)将EITE政策的重点放在一小部分行业上，以尽量减少部门重新分类问题;(3)识别容易发生排放泄漏的行业，而不仅仅是产出的变化;(4)考虑排放和贸易模式的空间异质性。

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引用次数: 2

THE RESPONSE OF WHEAT PRODUCTIVITY TO CLIMATE PATTERNS: EVIDENCE FROM PAKISTANI DISTRICTS 小麦产量对气候模式的响应:来自巴基斯坦地区的证据

IF 2.3 4区经济学 0 ECONOMICS

Climate Change Economics

Pub Date : 2021-09-11 DOI: 10.1142/s2010007821500093

F. Rehman, K. Sohag

The study examines the impact of climate variables on wheat production in 10 major wheat-producing districts of Pakistan. In doing so, we apply the Driscoll–Kraay approach to estimate the panel data from 1981 to 2019. Our empirical analysis reveals that climate variables, including temperature, rainfall and humidity, follow a common correlation across districts. We find that wheat productivity and temperature, as well as rainfall, follow an inverted U-shaped relation. The response of the wheat productivity is quadratic rather than linear towards average temperature and rainfall during the specific time of cultivation, including planting, flowering and harvesting. Besides, fertilizer use promotes and humidity impedes wheat productivity. Our findings are robust considering heterogeneity, serial correlation and spatial dependency.

该研究考察了气候变量对巴基斯坦10个主要小麦产区小麦产量的影响。为此，我们应用Driscoll-Kraay方法来估计1981年至2019年的面板数据。我们的实证分析表明，气候变量，包括温度、降雨和湿度，在不同地区遵循共同的相关性。我们发现小麦产量与温度以及降雨量呈倒u型关系。小麦产量对种植、开花期和收获期的平均气温和降雨量的响应是二次型的，而不是线性的。此外，化肥的使用促进了小麦的生产力，而湿度则阻碍了小麦的生产力。考虑到异质性、序列相关性和空间依赖性，我们的研究结果是稳健的。

引用次数: 7

Preface to Third Edition 第三版前言

IF 2.3 4区经济学 0 ECONOMICS

Climate Change Economics

Pub Date : 2021-08-26 DOI: 10.1016/B978-0-12-821575-3.05001-5

T. Letcher

引用次数: 0

OPTIMAL CLIMATE POLICY IN 3D: MITIGATION, CARBON REMOVAL, AND SOLAR GEOENGINEERING 三维环境下的最佳气候政策:减缓、碳去除和太阳能地球工程

IF 2.3 4区经济学 0 ECONOMICS

Climate Change Economics

Pub Date : 2021-08-02 DOI: 10.1142/s2010007821500081

Mariia Belaia, J. Moreno-Cruz, David William Keith

We introduce solar geoengineering (SG) and carbon dioxide removal (CDR) into an integrated assessment model to analyze the trade-offs between mitigation, SG, and CDR. We propose a novel empirical parameterization of SG that disentangles its efficacy, calibrated with climate model results, from its direct impacts. We use a simple parameterization of CDR that decouples it from the scale of baseline emissions. We find that (a) SG optimally delays mitigation and lowers the use of CDR, which is distinct from moral hazard; (b) SG is deployed prior to CDR while CDR drives the phasing out of SG in the far future; (c) SG deployment in the short term is relatively independent of discounting and of the long-term trade-off between SG and CDR over time; (d) small amounts of SG sharply reduce the cost of meeting a [Formula: see text]C target and the costs of climate change, even with a conservative calibration for the efficacy of SG.

我们将太阳能地球工程(SG)和二氧化碳去除(CDR)引入到一个综合评估模型中，以分析缓解、SG和CDR之间的权衡。我们提出了一种新的SG经验参数化方法，该方法将其有效性与气候模式结果校准后的直接影响分开。我们使用CDR的简单参数化，将其与基线排放的规模解耦。我们发现(a) SG最优地延迟缓解并降低CDR的使用，这与道德风险不同;(b) SG在CDR之前部署，而CDR推动在遥远的将来逐步淘汰SG;(c)短期内SG的部署相对独立于贴现和SG与CDR之间的长期权衡;(d)即使采用对减排效果的保守校准，少量的减排温室气体也能大幅降低实现减排目标的成本和气候变化的成本。

引用次数: 10

IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE NET REVENUE OF MAJOR CROP GROWING FARMERS IN PAKISTAN: A RICARDIAN APPROACH 气候变化对巴基斯坦主要作物种植户净收入的影响:李嘉图方法

IF 2.3 4区经济学 0 ECONOMICS

Climate Change Economics

Pub Date : 2021-06-04 DOI: 10.1142/S2010007821500068

A. Khan, Aadil Hameed Shah, Muhammad Iftikhar-ul-Husnain

Climate change has severely affected the crops’ productivity during the last few decades across the agrarian economies of the world, thereby resulting in a considerable loss per farmer in the yearly net revenue. Pakistan’s agriculture is sensitive to warming and it experienced an adverse effect in the net farm revenue (NFR). This study primarily predicts the adverse climate effects and estimates the NFR of the farmers of five major crops (wheat, rice, cotton, sugarcane and maize) in two different seasons, winter (Rabbi) and summer (Kharif), in Pakistan. This study is based upon the secondary cross-sectional data [Household Integrated Economic Survey of Pakistan (HIES), 2015–2016] along with the time series data regarding climatic variables from 1981 to 2016. A well-established Ricardian approach has been employed to test the association between net revenue of the farmer and climatic variability. Results of overall study conclude that increases in average summer (winter) temperature and average winter (summer) rainfall have adverse (favorable) impacts on all of the crops’ productivity during both seasons, winter (Rabbi) and summer (Kharif), in Pakistan, thus leading to a decline (an increase) in NFR. Future increases in temperature will be harmful and may lead to significant loss in the revenue amount. The analysis of adaptation techniques exhibits beneficial impacts on the NFR and it is concluded that adaptations are helpful tool for the farmers to minimize revenue loss.

在过去的几十年里，气候变化严重影响了全球农业经济的作物生产力，从而导致每位农民每年的净收入损失相当大。巴基斯坦的农业对气候变暖很敏感，对农业净收入(NFR)产生了不利影响。本研究主要预测了不利的气候影响，并估计了巴基斯坦五种主要作物(小麦、水稻、棉花、甘蔗和玉米)农民在冬季(拉比)和夏季(哈里夫)两个不同季节的NFR。本研究基于二次横截面数据[2015-2016年巴基斯坦家庭综合经济调查(HIES)]以及1981年至2016年气候变量的时间序列数据。一个完善的李嘉图方法已被用来测试农民的净收入和气候变化之间的关系。总体研究的结果表明，巴基斯坦夏季(冬季)平均温度和冬季(夏季)平均降雨量的增加对冬季(拉比)和夏季(哈里夫)两个季节的所有作物生产力产生不利(有利)影响，从而导致NFR下降(增加)。未来气温的升高将是有害的，并可能导致收入的重大损失。对适应技术的分析表明，适应技术对NFR产生了有益的影响，并得出结论，适应技术是农民减少收入损失的有用工具。

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引用次数: 7

WEATHER VARIABILITY, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY, AND FARMER SUICIDES IN INDIA 印度的天气变化、农业生产力和农民自杀

IF 2.3 4区经济学 0 ECONOMICS

Climate Change Economics

Pub Date : 2021-06-04 DOI: 10.1142/S2010007821500056

Sonal Barve, K. Kumar, Brinda Viswanathan

Globalization, commercialization, modernization, erratic climatic conditions, individual expectations, contagion, and government policies are some of the reasons attributed to farmers’ suicides. This study hypothesizes that farmer suicides in India are primarily linked to loss in agricultural productivity which in turn is affected by adverse weather and low penetration of irrigation networks. Using panel data of 16 major states in India, from 1996 to 2015 and Control Function (CF) approach, the study shows that keeping all other factors fixed, a one degree rise in temperature results in 4.8% higher farmer suicides through a 3.6% decline in agricultural productivity. Further, the study highlights the significant role played by the contagion factors influencing farmer suicides. The study argues for policy responses that address covariate shocks arising from weather vagaries, price volatility, and liquidity constraint as well as idiosyncratic shocks arising from farmer-specific characteristics.

全球化、商业化、现代化、不稳定的气候条件、个人期望、传染和政府政策是导致农民自杀的一些原因。该研究假设，印度农民自杀主要与农业生产力下降有关，而农业生产力下降又受到恶劣天气和灌溉网络渗透率低的影响。利用1996年至2015年印度16个主要邦的面板数据和控制函数(CF)方法，该研究表明，在保持所有其他因素不变的情况下，气温每上升1度，农民自杀率就会增加4.8%，农业生产率会下降3.6%。此外，研究还强调了传染因素对农民自杀的显著影响。该研究认为，应对气候变化、价格波动和流动性约束引起的协变量冲击以及农民特定特征引起的特殊冲击的政策应对措施。

引用次数: 4

HOW MUCH COULD ARTICLE 6 ENHANCE NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION AMBITION TOWARD PARIS AGREEMENT GOALS THROUGH ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY? 通过经济效率，第6条能在多大程度上提高实现《巴黎协定》目标的国家自主贡献雄心?

IF 2.3 4区经济学 0 ECONOMICS

Climate Change Economics

Pub Date : 2021-05-01 DOI: 10.1142/s201000782150007x

J. Edmonds, Shan Yu, H. Mcjeon, Dirk Forrister, Joseph E. Aldy, N. Hultman, R. Cui, Stephanie T. Waldhoff, L. Clarke, S. D. Clara, Clayton Munnings

The Paris Agreement of 2015 uses Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to achieve its goal to limit climate change to well below 2°C. Article 6 allows countries to cooperatively implement NDCs provided they do not double-count mitigation. We estimate that economic efficiency gains from cooperative implementation of existing NDC goals using Article 6 could reduce the cost of achieving NDC goals in 2030 to all parties by [Formula: see text]$[Formula: see text], which if reinvested in additional emissions mitigation could add 9 billion tons CO2/year mitigation, beyond the 8 billion tons CO2/year currently pledged in 2030. We estimate that more than half of the 2030 gains could come from nature-based measures, but long-term potential for nature-based measures is more limited. How much or even if this economic potential can be realized is uncertain and will depend on both the rules and their implementation.

2015年的《巴黎协定》使用国家自主贡献(NDCs)来实现将气候变化限制在远低于2°C的目标。第6条允许各国在不重复计算缓解量的情况下合作实施国家自主贡献。我们估计，利用第6条合作实施现有国家自主贡献目标所带来的经济效率收益，可将各方在2030年实现国家自主贡献目标的成本降低至[公式:见文本]美元，如果将其再投资于额外的减排，可在目前承诺的2030年减排80亿吨二氧化碳/年的基础上增加90亿吨二氧化碳/年的减排。我们估计，2030年超过一半的收益可能来自基于自然的措施，但基于自然的措施的长期潜力更为有限。这种经济潜力能够实现多少，甚至能否实现，都是不确定的，这将取决于规则及其实施。

引用次数: 13

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