Abstract:As a result of the COVID-19 pandemic and the 1 February 2021 coup, Myanmar is facing extraordinary human rights, political and socioeconomic crises. At this critical juncture, it is worth re-visiting and re-imagining the type of country Myanmar could be. Federalism has long been considered as the solution to the country’s protracted state-society and centre-periphery conflicts and to enable ethnic minority communities to achieve self-determination. However, discussions about federalism are often framed in terms of revising or replacing the 2008 Constitution in a top-down manner. While constitutional change is necessary, federalism can also be seen as an “emergent” phenomenon, developing from the “bottom-up” out of the existing structures and practices of the ethnic minority communities and the Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs). Several EAOs have long-established governance regimes in their areas of control or influence, delivering a range of essential and life-saving public services to their communities. These local frameworks of public administration and services provision can serve as important building blocks of a bottom-up federalism, especially given the collapse of a credible and legitimate Myanmar state. As such, EAOs should be supported to develop their governance and services delivery systems. Arguably, the present multiple crises in Myanmar offers the closest approximation since the 1947 Panglong Conference of the idea that a federal union should emerge out of agreements among sovereign states, i.e. that state formation (and sovereignty) must precede a federal constitutional settlement.
{"title":"Towards “Emergent Federalism” in Post-coup Myanmar","authors":"A. South","doi":"10.1355/cs43-3a","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1355/cs43-3a","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract:As a result of the COVID-19 pandemic and the 1 February 2021 coup, Myanmar is facing extraordinary human rights, political and socioeconomic crises. At this critical juncture, it is worth re-visiting and re-imagining the type of country Myanmar could be. Federalism has long been considered as the solution to the country’s protracted state-society and centre-periphery conflicts and to enable ethnic minority communities to achieve self-determination. However, discussions about federalism are often framed in terms of revising or replacing the 2008 Constitution in a top-down manner. While constitutional change is necessary, federalism can also be seen as an “emergent” phenomenon, developing from the “bottom-up” out of the existing structures and practices of the ethnic minority communities and the Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs). Several EAOs have long-established governance regimes in their areas of control or influence, delivering a range of essential and life-saving public services to their communities. These local frameworks of public administration and services provision can serve as important building blocks of a bottom-up federalism, especially given the collapse of a credible and legitimate Myanmar state. As such, EAOs should be supported to develop their governance and services delivery systems. Arguably, the present multiple crises in Myanmar offers the closest approximation since the 1947 Panglong Conference of the idea that a federal union should emerge out of agreements among sovereign states, i.e. that state formation (and sovereignty) must precede a federal constitutional settlement.","PeriodicalId":46227,"journal":{"name":"Contemporary Southeast Asia","volume":"96 1","pages":"439 - 460"},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2022-01-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83587363","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract:This article focuses on identifying the variable which has the highest predictive power in predicting electoral behaviour. To do this, we apply a tree-based machine learning technique to data from Malaysia’s 14th General Election. We find that constituencies’ urbanization level has the most significant predictive power in determining vote share. Ethnicity, a long-touted variable of significance, plays a secondary role. Moreover, these predictors’ marginal effects on the vote share are highly complex, non-linear and difficult to pick up by conventional regression methods. Other explanatory factors do not exhibit significant predictive qualities of electoral behaviour, although the extant literature has shown them to have important causal relationships. As our analysis reflects the significant predictive power of urbanization in predicting voting behaviour, we caution against the haste to dismiss its relevance in the Malaysian context.
{"title":"Did Urbanization or Ethnicity Matter More in Malaysia’s 14th General Election?","authors":"J. Ng, G. J. Rangel, Elsa Phung Yet Chin","doi":"10.1355/cs43-3b","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1355/cs43-3b","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract:This article focuses on identifying the variable which has the highest predictive power in predicting electoral behaviour. To do this, we apply a tree-based machine learning technique to data from Malaysia’s 14th General Election. We find that constituencies’ urbanization level has the most significant predictive power in determining vote share. Ethnicity, a long-touted variable of significance, plays a secondary role. Moreover, these predictors’ marginal effects on the vote share are highly complex, non-linear and difficult to pick up by conventional regression methods. Other explanatory factors do not exhibit significant predictive qualities of electoral behaviour, although the extant literature has shown them to have important causal relationships. As our analysis reflects the significant predictive power of urbanization in predicting voting behaviour, we caution against the haste to dismiss its relevance in the Malaysian context.","PeriodicalId":46227,"journal":{"name":"Contemporary Southeast Asia","volume":"267 1","pages":"461 - 495"},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2022-01-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79792673","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract:How do post-authoritarian legislatures craft police oversight? This article applies McCubbins and Schwartz’s model of congressional oversight to Myanmar’s inaugural post-junta legislature (2011–16). It aims to assess whether parliament began to play a role in police oversight following the end of the junta’s rule in 2011. It draws on the analysis of official legislative proceedings and interviews with members of parliament from both the ruling Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) and the opposition. The findings suggest that—echoing large swathes of scholarship on parliamentary scrutiny in fledgling democracies—an inchoate form of “fire alarm” oversight began to develop. The Union legislature under the USDP emerged as a site for occasionally shedding light on police (mis)behaviour, but failed to effectively act on, or sanction, misconduct. Police scrutiny was tentatively fostered by a handful of backbenchers who had a keen interest in police issues, a background in security affairs or were facing pressure from their constituents to ventilate their grievances against the police in parliament. These findings contribute to a better understanding of the practice of police oversight in new legislatures operating under praetorian settings.
{"title":"The Inchoate Legislative Scrutiny of the Myanmar Police Forces: A Study of the USDP Legislature (2011–16)","authors":"R. Egreteau","doi":"10.1355/cs43-3d","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1355/cs43-3d","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract:How do post-authoritarian legislatures craft police oversight? This article applies McCubbins and Schwartz’s model of congressional oversight to Myanmar’s inaugural post-junta legislature (2011–16). It aims to assess whether parliament began to play a role in police oversight following the end of the junta’s rule in 2011. It draws on the analysis of official legislative proceedings and interviews with members of parliament from both the ruling Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) and the opposition. The findings suggest that—echoing large swathes of scholarship on parliamentary scrutiny in fledgling democracies—an inchoate form of “fire alarm” oversight began to develop. The Union legislature under the USDP emerged as a site for occasionally shedding light on police (mis)behaviour, but failed to effectively act on, or sanction, misconduct. Police scrutiny was tentatively fostered by a handful of backbenchers who had a keen interest in police issues, a background in security affairs or were facing pressure from their constituents to ventilate their grievances against the police in parliament. These findings contribute to a better understanding of the practice of police oversight in new legislatures operating under praetorian settings.","PeriodicalId":46227,"journal":{"name":"Contemporary Southeast Asia","volume":"191 1","pages":"531 - 556"},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2022-01-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"90646800","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"BOOK REVIEW: A Genealogy of Bamboo Diplomacy: The Politics of Détente with Russia and China, by Jittipat Poonkham","authors":"Sittithep Eaksittipong","doi":"10.1355/cs44-2l","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1355/cs44-2l","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":46227,"journal":{"name":"Contemporary Southeast Asia","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"66565378","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Tayeb reviews Public Health in Asia during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Global Health, Migrant Labour, and International Health Crises edited by Anoma P. van der Veere, Florian Schneider and Catherine Yukping Lo.
Tayeb回顾了2019冠状病毒病大流行期间亚洲的公共卫生:全球卫生、移民劳工和国际卫生危机，由Anoma P. van der Veere、Florian Schneider和Catherine Yukping Lo编辑。
{"title":"BOOK REVIEW: Public Health in Asia during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Global Health, Migrant Labour, and International Health Crises, edited by Anoma P. van der Veere, Florian Schneider and Catherine Yukping Lo","authors":"A. Tayeb","doi":"10.1355/cs44-2o","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1355/cs44-2o","url":null,"abstract":"Tayeb reviews Public Health in Asia during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Global Health, Migrant Labour, and International Health Crises edited by Anoma P. van der Veere, Florian Schneider and Catherine Yukping Lo.","PeriodicalId":46227,"journal":{"name":"Contemporary Southeast Asia","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"66565537","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"BOOK REVIEW: Politics in Contemporary Indonesia: Institutional Change, Policy Challenges and Democratic Decline. By Ken M.P. Setiawan and Dirk Tomas","authors":"A. Savirani","doi":"10.1355/cs44-3i","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1355/cs44-3i","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":46227,"journal":{"name":"Contemporary Southeast Asia","volume":"120 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"66565454","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"BOOK REVIEW: The Sovereign Trickster: Death and Laughter in the Age of Duterte, by Vicente L. Rafael","authors":"A. Arugay","doi":"10.1355/cs44-3k","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1355/cs44-3k","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":46227,"journal":{"name":"Contemporary Southeast Asia","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"66565526","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"BOOK REVIEW: Heritage and the Making of Political Legitimacy in Laos: The Past and Present of the Lao Nation, by Phill Wilcox","authors":"N. Freeman","doi":"10.1355/cs44-2i","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1355/cs44-2i","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":46227,"journal":{"name":"Contemporary Southeast Asia","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"66565805","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"BOOK REVIEW: Troubling the Water: A Dying Lake and a Vanishing World in Cambodia, by Abby Seiff","authors":"Ming Li Yong","doi":"10.1355/cs44-3f","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1355/cs44-3f","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":46227,"journal":{"name":"Contemporary Southeast Asia","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"66565822","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"BOOK REVIEW: Opposing Power: Building Opposition Alliances in Electoral Autocracies, by Elvin Ong","authors":"Khoo Ying Hooi","doi":"10.1355/cs44-3g","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1355/cs44-3g","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":46227,"journal":{"name":"Contemporary Southeast Asia","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"66565832","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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