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Value of travel time savings of autonomous vehicle commuters: a segmented valuation for local and inter-city travel 自动驾驶汽车通勤者节省的旅行时间价值:对本地和城际旅行的分段评估
3区 工程技术 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2023-01-10 DOI: 10.1080/12265934.2023.2165531
Sungtaek Choi, Daejin Kim, Joonho Ko, Jonghan Park, Yongseok Ko
In this study we aim to identify how the adoption of autonomous vehicles (AVs) affects the value of travel time savings (VOTTS) for commuting trips under different trip distance scenarios (local and inter-city travel). Using a stated preference survey administered to Korean commuters in 2019, two multinomial logit (MNL) mode choice models are developed. These models are stratified by trip length and include four alternatives: AV with a manual driving option (AVMD), AV with a self-driving option (AVSD), shared AV (SAV), and public transit (PT). The results show that the value of in-vehicle travel time savings for AVSD (on average, $7.61/hr) is lower than for the other two AV modes (AVMD = $10.26/hr, SAV = $13.67/hr). It suggests that travelers tend to pay less to reduce travel time while using a private hands-free mode because it allows travelers to use their travel time more productively and/or relieve stress for driving. In addition, changes in the VOTTS for each mode vary by trip length. As travel distance increases, VOTTS for shared modes (SAV and PT) tends to decrease. The value of in-vehicle travel time for SAV in the local travel scenario is the highest among the four modes but is considerably lower than that in the inter-city scenario. These differences suggest that travelers require a certain amount of time to fully use their in-vehicle time, highlighting the importance of trip length when determining the VOTTS. Interestingly, the VOTTS for PT is lower than three AV modes, implying that it might be too early to expect substantial reduction in the VOTTS for AVs due to potential risks of accidents, unfamiliarity with AVs, or immature technology of AVs. HighlightsLikelihood of choosing autonomous vehicles is modelled based on trip length.Changes in value of travel time savings for each mode vary by trip length.Value of travel time savings for public transit is lower than autonomous vehicles.Self-driving vehicles have a low value of travel time savings than other modes.People need a certain amount of time to fully perform activities while traveling.
在本研究中,我们旨在确定自动驾驶汽车(AVs)的采用如何影响不同行程距离情景(本地和城际旅行)下通勤旅行的旅行时间节省价值(VOTTS)。利用2019年对韩国通勤者进行的既定偏好调查,开发了两个多项logit (MNL)模式选择模型。这些车型按行程长度分层,包括四种选择:手动驾驶选项(AVMD)、自动驾驶选项(AVSD)、共享自动驾驶(SAV)和公共交通(PT)。结果表明,AVSD模式的车内旅行时间节省价值(平均为7.61美元/小时)低于其他两种自动驾驶模式(AVMD = 10.26美元/小时,SAV = 13.67美元/小时)。研究表明,在使用私人免提模式时,旅行者倾向于花更少的钱来缩短旅行时间,因为它可以让旅行者更有效地利用他们的旅行时间,并/或减轻驾驶压力。此外,每种模式的VOTTS变化随行程长度而变化。随着旅行距离的增加,共享模式(SAV和PT)的VOTTS有减小的趋势。在四种出行模式中,本地出行模式下SAV的车内出行时间值最高,但远低于城际出行模式。这些差异表明,旅行者需要一定的时间来充分利用他们的车内时间,这突出了在确定VOTTS时旅行长度的重要性。有趣的是,PT模式的VOTTS低于三种自动驾驶模式,这意味着由于潜在的事故风险、人们对自动驾驶汽车的不熟悉或自动驾驶汽车技术的不成熟,期望自动驾驶汽车的VOTTS大幅降低可能还为时过早。选择自动驾驶汽车的可能性是基于行程长度建模的。每种模式的旅行时间节省值随行程长度而变化。公共交通节省的出行时间价值低于自动驾驶汽车。与其他交通方式相比,自动驾驶汽车节省的出行时间价值较低。人们在旅行时需要一定的时间来充分完成活动。
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引用次数: 2
The relationship between residential burglaries and urban environments in Taipei City: a data mining approach 台北市住宅盗窃案与城市环境的关系:一种数据挖掘方法
IF 2.9 3区 工程技术 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2023-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/12265934.2022.2085151
Yi-Kai Juan, Wan-Hsuan Lin
ABSTRACT Although the overall crime rate in Taiwan has shown a declining trend in recent years, the proportion of burglaries remains high. Most studies regarding the prevention of burglaries proceed from the perspectives of population composition or criminal psychology, and place focus on the internal spatial planning of buildings without mentioning the association between case locations and urban environments. In order to effectively prevent crime and improve the quality of life, this study utilized cases provided by the Taipei City Government Open Platform (Data. Taipei) to confirm the surrounding environmental factors and building data of burglary cases for data mining application. The proposed method consists of two phases: clustering and association rule mining. In the clustering phase, the key substructures of environmental information are collected; then characteristics in each cluster are analyzed based on the association rule. The results of analysis showed that the first group (Group 1) in the classification should give priority to improving the visibility of idle space and streets, while the second group (Group 2) should improve the efficiency of personnel surveillance and solve the problem of crowds caused by business activities. The third group (Group 3), which featured narrow lanes and insufficient street lamps on chaotic streets, should engage in overall planning and design. Some studies have found that the environmental characteristics of burglary cases in Taipei City are different from the characteristics of crime-saddled urban areas defined by international scholars. Such differences deserve further study. The findings of this study can serve as an environmental design model for future urban development.
摘要尽管近年来台湾的整体犯罪率呈下降趋势,但入室盗窃的比例仍然很高。大多数关于入室盗窃预防的研究都是从人口构成或犯罪心理学的角度进行的,并将重点放在建筑物的内部空间规划上,而没有提及案件地点与城市环境之间的联系。为了有效预防犯罪,提高生活质量,本研究利用台北市政府开放平台(Data.Tipei)提供的案例来确认入室盗窃案件的周围环境因素和建筑数据,以进行数据挖掘应用。该方法包括两个阶段:聚类和关联规则挖掘。在聚类阶段,收集环境信息的关键子结构;然后根据关联规则对每个聚类中的特征进行分析。分析结果表明,分类中的第一组(第一组)应优先提高闲置空间和街道的能见度,而第二组(第二组)应提高人员监控效率,解决商业活动造成的人群问题。第三组(第三组),在混乱的街道上,车道狭窄,路灯不足,应该进行整体规划和设计。一些研究发现,台北市入室盗窃案件的环境特征与国际学者定义的犯罪重灾区的特征不同。这种差异值得进一步研究。这项研究的结果可以作为未来城市发展的环境设计模型。
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引用次数: 1
Equity-based linkages in the evolving process of industry enclaves: a case study of Suzhou Industrial Park, China 产业飞地演化过程中的股权关联——以苏州工业园区为例
IF 2.9 3区 工程技术 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2022-12-12 DOI: 10.1080/12265934.2022.2154250
Xiao Zhang
ABSTRACT Chinese policymakers have widely established special economic zones (SEZs) as key drivers to attract FDI, and by extension facilitate R&D and technology diffusion to realize industry upgrading. However, to the extent that SEZs might be regarded as enclaves, the extent to which subsidiaries of MNEs foster local linkages and transfer knowledge in SEZs remains unclear. This research investigates the state of the linkages generated by firms that have shareholders from incoming MNEs within an SEZ to see if these linkages show signs of knowledge diffusion in the local area. The empirical research is based on a case study of Suzhou Industrial Park (SIP) through secondary data collection on the equity investment of incoming MNEs within SIP and data from semi-structured interviews. The findings suggest that the organizational network of incoming MNEs in SIP is still internalized, and technology transfer through these linkages is weak – this despite SIP apparently having evolved from an enclave to an urban economic agglomeration.
摘要:中国决策者已广泛设立经济特区,将其作为吸引外国直接投资的关键驱动力,进而促进研发和技术扩散,以实现产业升级。然而,就经济特区可能被视为飞地的程度而言,跨国公司的子公司在多大程度上促进了经济特区的地方联系和知识转让仍不清楚。这项研究调查了拥有来自经济特区内即将到来的跨国公司股东的公司产生的联系状态,以了解这些联系是否显示出知识在当地传播的迹象。实证研究基于苏州工业园区的案例研究,通过对苏州工业园区内引入的跨国公司股权投资的二次数据收集和半结构化访谈的数据。研究结果表明,SIP中引入的跨国公司的组织网络仍然是内部化的,通过这些联系进行的技术转让很弱——尽管SIP显然已经从飞地演变成了城市经济集聚区。
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引用次数: 1
Finding the old in the new: Smart cities in the national and local trajectories of urban development 在新中寻旧:智慧城市在国家和地方的城市发展轨迹
IF 2.9 3区 工程技术 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2022-12-11 DOI: 10.1080/12265934.2022.2153472
A. Müller, Joonha Park, J. Sonn
The smart city concept has become a ubiquitous policy agenda across the world. From the Megacities of Asia to medium-sized cities across the Global North and South, politicians, planners and tech entrepreneurs have embraced and promoted the concept. As the concept has gained popularity, the early techno-optimism or -pessimism has been replaced by more nuanced and in-depth analyses of smart city projects. Furthermore, while early so-called smart cities took the form of new urban development such as Songdo in South Korea, most smart city projects today are implemented in a variety of existing urban contexts with long historical trajectories, a broad range of stakeholders, and variegated institutional contexts. Even if the term of smart city has been applied to a whole host of urban development and renewal projects, it has become clear that smart cities have not become the global homogenizing force envisioned by early proponents and feared by critics (Cardullo & Kitchin, 2019; Cugurullo, 2018; Halpern, Mitchell, & Geoghegan, 2017; Joss, Sengers, Schraven, Caprotti, & Dayot, 2019). As Shelton et al. have pointed out most smart city projects do not occur on a tabula rasa but are rather interventions ‘ ... awkwardly integrated into, existing social and spatial constellations of urban governance and the built environment’ (Shelton, Zook, & Wiig, 2015, p. 14). In their study of Songdo New City in South Korea Shin, Park and Sonn argue for an analytical framework that investigates the dialectic interaction between path dependence and new forms of networks where relations of power between different actors, old and new, are being renegotiated and agendas reformulated (Shin, Park, & Sonn, 2015). Perhaps the heaviest critique of smart city projects is that, despite more than a decade of projects, it is still unclear how they have helped to solve or mitigate some of the most pressing urban problems (Clark, 2021). The promise of smart city technologies as a technological fix has indeed yet to materialize. Perhaps what is the most tangible outcome of the smart city debate has been how it has shaken things up and reignited much needed discussions on what really matters when it comes to urban futures. Another main critique of the smart city agenda is its focus on scalability and replicability. In the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Smart Cities and Communities Lighthouse programme development of scalable and replicable technical solutions to urban problems was at the centre (Cardullo & Kitchin, 2019; European Commission, 2022). Forty eight lead cities and 72 follower cities across Europe with a combined budget of more than 1.2 billion EUR were to pathways to smarter and sustainable cities across 28 EU member states and associated countries. The lighthouse projects were also expected to be amenable to local needs, but the tension between the EU’s ambition of scalable and replicable solutions on one hand and national and local contexts on the other speaks to the limita
智慧城市的概念已经成为全世界无处不在的政策议程。从亚洲的大城市到全球南北部的中等城市,政治家、规划者和科技企业家都接受并推广了这一概念。随着这个概念越来越流行,早期的技术乐观主义或悲观主义已经被更细致、更深入的智能城市项目分析所取代。此外,虽然早期所谓的智能城市是以韩国松道等新城市发展的形式出现的,但如今大多数智能城市项目都是在各种现有的城市环境中实施的,这些城市环境具有悠久的历史轨迹、广泛的利益相关者和多样化的制度背景。即使智能城市一词已经应用于一系列城市发展和更新项目,但很明显,智能城市并没有成为早期支持者所设想和批评者所担心的全球同质化力量(Cardullo&Kitchin,2019;Cugurullo,2018;Halpern、Mitchell和Geoghegan,2017;Joss、Sengers、Schraven、Caprotti和Dayot,2019)。正如Shelton等人所指出的,大多数智能城市项目并不是在白板上进行的,而是干预措施。。。笨拙地融入城市治理和建筑环境的现有社会和空间星座中”(Shelton,Zook,&Wiig,2015,第14页)。在他们对韩国松道新城的研究中,Shin、Park和Sonn主张建立一个分析框架,调查路径依赖和新形式网络之间的辩证互动,在新老不同行为者之间的权力关系正在重新谈判和议程重新制定(Shin,Park,&Sonn,2015)。也许对智能城市项目最严厉的批评是,尽管项目已经进行了十多年,但仍不清楚它们是如何帮助解决或缓解一些最紧迫的城市问题的(Clark,2021)。智能城市技术作为一种技术解决方案的前景确实尚未实现。也许智慧城市辩论最实际的结果是它如何改变了现状,重新引发了人们对城市未来真正重要的东西的讨论。对智慧城市议程的另一个主要批评是其对可扩展性和可复制性的关注。在欧盟的地平线2020智能城市和社区灯塔计划中,为城市问题开发可扩展和可复制的技术解决方案是中心(Cardullo&Kitchin,2019;欧盟委员会,2022)。欧洲48个领先城市和72个跟随城市的总预算超过12亿欧元,将在28个欧盟成员国和相关国家实现更智能和可持续的城市。灯塔项目也有望满足当地需求,但欧盟对可扩展和可复制解决方案的雄心与国家和地方背景之间的紧张关系说明了制定普遍解决方案的局限性。也许,关注学习潜力会更有用?智慧城市项目在遇到不同的国家和地方城市发展轨迹时,会以多种方式形成和塑造,我们可以从中了解到什么?
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引用次数: 0
A critical review of activity participation decision: a key component of activity-based travel demand models 活动参与决策:基于活动的旅行需求模型的关键组成部分
IF 2.9 3区 工程技术 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2022-12-11 DOI: 10.1080/12265934.2022.2154249
Suchismita Nayak, Debapratim Pandit
ABSTRACT Activity-based travel demand models (ABM) have gained popularity during the last three decades and are currently in use in several urban areas. In ABM, special emphasis is given to modelling individuals’ decisions related to participation in activity and its scheduling. Most researchers and popular ABM frameworks have, however, refrained from implicit activity participation decision modelling and have concentrated only on the activity scheduling part thus replacing ‘activity’ with ‘tour’ as the main focus of ABM. This may lead to oversimplification and may offset the need for ABMs in the first place. Thus there is a need to review research focusing on activity participation decisions to facilitate their incorporation and eventual strengthening of existing ABM frameworks. Accordingly, a critical review of activity generation focusing on conceptualization, modelling approaches and activity categorization is conducted to identify the lacunas towards making it more policy-sensitive, efficient and behaviourally realistic. The strength and weaknesses of different modelling techniques are also explored to understand their prediction accuracy and computational complexities. Additionally, the progress of activity participation decision modelling within the existing ABM frameworks is also traced. The existing models are also explored through the lens of changing activity-travel behaviour of urban commuters resulting from technological improvement and wide access to telecommunication services even in developing countries. Our review not only traces the transition of standalone activity participation decision models to activity agenda generation and activity sequence generation models but also identifies the progress in incorporating various spatio-temporal interaction effects and the underlying behavioural dynamics of activity participation decisions within these models. One issue identified though is the trade-off between behavioural dynamism and data requirement and the need for standardization of activity categories.
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引用次数: 2
Is the gated community really safe? An empirical analysis based on communities with varying degrees of closure 封闭式社区真的安全吗?基于不同封闭程度社区的实证分析
IF 2.9 3区 工程技术 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2022-12-11 DOI: 10.1080/12265934.2022.2154248
Xiaolin Wu, Xiaoqin Tan
ABSTRACT Gated communities are considered a way of living that provides privacy and security. Existing research has mostly focused on subjective emotional judgments such as fear of crime, while it is unclear whether communities with different degrees of closure have avoided insecure incidents. Taking six communities and 649 questionnaires in Changsha, China as study cases, we analyze the relationship between community closure and community security. The results show that not gated communities but open communities are the safest, while semi-gated communities are the least safe. It is confirmed that community security is regardless of being gated. One possible explanation for this is the joint effect of ‘dual security scenarios’. This means that the living communities’ security is not only rooted in the construction of a safe physical space, but also depended on a humanistic atmosphere with informal relations and residents’ safety awareness, providing natural surveillance possibilities.
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引用次数: 0
The nature of urban sprawl in Western Balkan cities 西巴尔干城市城市扩张的本质
IF 2.9 3区 工程技术 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2022-12-07 DOI: 10.1080/12265934.2022.2154692
Z. Živanović, B. Tošić, Natalija Mirić, Nikola Vračević
{"title":"The nature of urban sprawl in Western Balkan cities","authors":"Z. Živanović, B. Tošić, Natalija Mirić, Nikola Vračević","doi":"10.1080/12265934.2022.2154692","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/12265934.2022.2154692","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":46464,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Urban Sciences","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2022-12-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45356525","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The spatial spillover effect of technological innovation network in cities: a case of the high-tech industry of Yangtze River Delta 城市技术创新网络的空间溢出效应——以长三角高科技产业为例
IF 2.9 3区 工程技术 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2022-11-29 DOI: 10.1080/12265934.2022.2149610
Young-Hyun Song, Jung Wook Kim
ABSTRACT This study aims to investigate the formation of the inter-city technology innovation network and its economic effects on the Yangtze River Delta (YRD). To examine the innovation network, this study utilizes high-tech industry registered patent data that provide for a more substantial formation of the inter-city technology network. First, this study finds that a solid technology innovation network was formed between most cities in YRD. Moreover, we found that various small, medium-sized and large cities acted as hubs for the networks. Lastly, a spatial econometrics model was constructed and empirical analysis was conducted to determine whether the spatial spillover effect through YRD’s inter-city technology innovation network actually occurs and to what extent. The result confirms that there is a positive spatial spillover effect through a technology innovation network between cities in the YRD high-tech industrial sector.
摘要本研究旨在探讨长三角城市间技术创新网络的形成及其经济效应。本研究利用高新技术产业注册专利数据,对城际技术网络的形成进行实证研究。首先,研究发现长三角大部分城市之间形成了坚实的技术创新网络。此外,我们发现各种小、中、大城市充当了网络的枢纽。最后,构建空间计量经济学模型并进行实证分析,以确定长三角城际技术创新网络的空间溢出效应是否存在以及存在的程度。结果表明,长三角高技术产业城市间的技术创新网络存在正向的空间溢出效应。
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引用次数: 2
Exploration on prior driving modes for automated vehicle collisions 自动车辆碰撞优先驾驶模式探讨
IF 2.9 3区 工程技术 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2022-11-06 DOI: 10.1080/12265934.2022.2142650
Subasish Das, X. Kong, M. Hossain
ABSTRACT The emergence of automated vehicles (AV) has been occurring rapidly as these vehicles have the potential to reduce/eradicate human driving faults and related collisions. To enhance AV safety, the NHTSA recommends the continuous presence of a backup human driver that has a reasonable understanding of AV technologies to ensure disengagement when manual overtake is required. However, due to several AV-related traffic crashes during roadway testing and extensive media interest, AV safety has become a critical issue. This study collected 255 crash reports filed by different manufacturers testing AVs in California from September 2014 to April 2020. The crash dataset was analyzed using two data mining algorithms (association rule mining and text network analysis) to identify the key AV-related crash attributes and their associations based on the vehicle’s prior driving mode (conventional or automated). The results show that the manner of collision and the prior movement of the testing vehicle are strongly connected with prior driving mode. For example, AV crashes in a manual driving mode often result in a sideswipe collision during moving status, whereas AV crashes in an automated driving mode are highly associated with rear-end collisions when AVs are stopped in traffic. The findings of this study can help policymakers and AV engineers improve AV deployment strategies to support the adoption of AVs and promote potential safety benefits for AV technologies.
{"title":"Exploration on prior driving modes for automated vehicle collisions","authors":"Subasish Das, X. Kong, M. Hossain","doi":"10.1080/12265934.2022.2142650","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/12265934.2022.2142650","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT The emergence of automated vehicles (AV) has been occurring rapidly as these vehicles have the potential to reduce/eradicate human driving faults and related collisions. To enhance AV safety, the NHTSA recommends the continuous presence of a backup human driver that has a reasonable understanding of AV technologies to ensure disengagement when manual overtake is required. However, due to several AV-related traffic crashes during roadway testing and extensive media interest, AV safety has become a critical issue. This study collected 255 crash reports filed by different manufacturers testing AVs in California from September 2014 to April 2020. The crash dataset was analyzed using two data mining algorithms (association rule mining and text network analysis) to identify the key AV-related crash attributes and their associations based on the vehicle’s prior driving mode (conventional or automated). The results show that the manner of collision and the prior movement of the testing vehicle are strongly connected with prior driving mode. For example, AV crashes in a manual driving mode often result in a sideswipe collision during moving status, whereas AV crashes in an automated driving mode are highly associated with rear-end collisions when AVs are stopped in traffic. The findings of this study can help policymakers and AV engineers improve AV deployment strategies to support the adoption of AVs and promote potential safety benefits for AV technologies.","PeriodicalId":46464,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Urban Sciences","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2022-11-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47773128","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Urban life cycle and long-run violence: Colombia 1938–2018 城市生命周期和长期暴力:哥伦比亚1938-2018
IF 2.9 3区 工程技术 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2022-10-28 DOI: 10.1080/12265934.2022.2137566
Nestor Garza, Ivan Verbel-Montes, José Ramos-Ruiz
ABSTRACT This paper revisits and improves upon the traditional urban life cycle theory, using it as a long-term conceptual baseline model to assess the effect of the Colombian internal armed conflict on urbanization during 1938–2018. The paper makes three innovations: (1) It uses a third-degree autoregressive panel estimation to detect the underlying Data Generating Process of the urban life cycle, a feature that eluded original scholarship in the field; (2) It uses the baseline urban life cycle model to assess the impact of long-term violence in Colombia; and (3) It produces an inductive conceptual approach to the relationship between urbanization and economic development. Our third-degree autoregressive panel models adequately explain the urban concentration cycles experienced by Colombia’s 20 largest metropolitan areas, regardless of using different specification structures. It also correctly controls the long-term trends of the demographic transition that the country experienced during that period: its rate of urbanization increased from 31 to 68% between 1938 and 2018; the largest 20 metro areas increased their participation in the total population from 17 to 54%; and yearly total population growth increased from 2.12% in the 1940s to its peak 3.19% in the 1970s, decreasing to 1.18% in the 2010s. The homicide rate had a controlling effect on the increasing parts of the urban life cycle, acting as a deterrent of urban concentration per metropolitan area.
{"title":"Urban life cycle and long-run violence: Colombia 1938–2018","authors":"Nestor Garza, Ivan Verbel-Montes, José Ramos-Ruiz","doi":"10.1080/12265934.2022.2137566","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/12265934.2022.2137566","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT This paper revisits and improves upon the traditional urban life cycle theory, using it as a long-term conceptual baseline model to assess the effect of the Colombian internal armed conflict on urbanization during 1938–2018. The paper makes three innovations: (1) It uses a third-degree autoregressive panel estimation to detect the underlying Data Generating Process of the urban life cycle, a feature that eluded original scholarship in the field; (2) It uses the baseline urban life cycle model to assess the impact of long-term violence in Colombia; and (3) It produces an inductive conceptual approach to the relationship between urbanization and economic development. Our third-degree autoregressive panel models adequately explain the urban concentration cycles experienced by Colombia’s 20 largest metropolitan areas, regardless of using different specification structures. It also correctly controls the long-term trends of the demographic transition that the country experienced during that period: its rate of urbanization increased from 31 to 68% between 1938 and 2018; the largest 20 metro areas increased their participation in the total population from 17 to 54%; and yearly total population growth increased from 2.12% in the 1940s to its peak 3.19% in the 1970s, decreasing to 1.18% in the 2010s. The homicide rate had a controlling effect on the increasing parts of the urban life cycle, acting as a deterrent of urban concentration per metropolitan area.","PeriodicalId":46464,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Urban Sciences","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2022-10-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41804015","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
期刊
International Journal of Urban Sciences
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