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Statistical analysis of the estimates of some stationary performances of the unreliable M/M/1/N queue with Bernoulli feedback 具有伯努利反馈的不可靠M/M/1/N队列某些平稳性能估计的统计分析
IF 0.9 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2023-05-03 DOI: 10.1515/mcma-2023-2004
Hadjer Nita, Fairouz Afroun, M. Cherfaoui, D. Aïssani
Abstract In this work, we considered the parametric estimation of the characteristics of the M / M / 1 / N {M/M/1/N} waiting model with Bernoulli feedback. Through a Monte-Carlo simulation study, we have illustrated the effect of the estimation of the starting parameters of the considered waiting system on the statistical properties of its performance measures estimates, when these latter are obtained using the plug-in method. In addition, several types of convergence (bias, variance, MSE, in law) of these performance measure estimators have also been showed by simulation.
摘要在这项工作中,我们考虑了具有伯努利反馈的M/M/1/N{M/M/1/N}等待模型的特征的参数估计。通过蒙特卡洛模拟研究,我们已经说明了所考虑的等待系统的启动参数的估计对其性能指标估计的统计特性的影响,当使用插件方法获得这些估计时。此外,模拟还表明了这些性能测度估计量的几种收敛类型(偏差、方差、MSE、律)。
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引用次数: 0
Computation of the steady-state probability of Markov chain evolving on a mixed state space 混合状态空间上马尔可夫链演化的稳态概率计算
IF 0.9 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2023-03-30 DOI: 10.1515/mcma-2023-2003
Az-eddine Zakrad, A. Nasroallah
Abstract The partitioning algorithm is an iterative procedure that computes explicitly the steady-state probability of a finite Markov chain 𝑋. In this paper, we propose to adapt this algorithm to the case where the state space E := C ∪ D E:=Ccup D is composed of a continuous part 𝐶 and a finite part 𝐷 such that C ∩ D = ∅ Ccap D=emptyset . In this case, the steady-state probability 𝜋 of 𝑋 is a convex combination of two steady-state probabilities π C pi_{C} and π D pi_{D} of two Markov chains on 𝐶 and 𝐷 respectively. The obtained algorithm allows to compute explicitly π D pi_{D} . If π C pi_{C} cannot be computed explicitly, our algorithm approximates it by numerical resolution of successive integral equations. Some numerical examples are studied to show the usefulness and proper functioning of our proposal.
分划算法是显式计算有限马尔可夫链稳态概率的迭代过程𝑋。在本文中,我们提出将该算法应用于状态空间E:=C∪D E:=C cup D由连续部分和有限部分𝐷组成,使得C∩D=∅C cap D= emptyset。在这种情况下,稳态概率𝑋分别是两条马尔可夫链的两个稳态概率π C pi _C{和π }D pi _D{的凸组合。得到的算法允许显式计算π D }pi _D{。如果π C }pi _C{不能显式计算,我们的算法通过连续积分方程的数值解析近似它。通过数值算例分析,说明了该方法的有效性和良好的功能。}
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引用次数: 0
A time-step-robust algorithm to compute particle trajectories in 3-D unstructured meshes for Lagrangian stochastic methods 拉格朗日随机方法计算三维非结构化网格中粒子轨迹的时间步长鲁棒算法
IF 0.9 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2023-03-15 DOI: 10.1515/mcma-2023-2002
Guilhem Balvet, J. Minier, C. Henry, Y. Roustan, M. Ferrand
Abstract The purpose of this paper is to propose a time-step-robust cell-to-cell integration of particle trajectories in 3-D unstructured meshes in particle/mesh Lagrangian stochastic methods. The main idea is to dynamically update the mean fields used in the time integration by splitting, for each particle, the time step into sub-steps such that each of these sub-steps corresponds to particle cell residence times. This reduces the spatial discretization error. Given the stochastic nature of the models, a key aspect is to derive estimations of the residence times that do not anticipate the future of the Wiener process. To that effect, the new algorithm relies on a virtual particle, attached to each stochastic one, whose mean conditional behavior provides free-of-statistical-bias predictions of residence times. After consistency checks, this new algorithm is validated on two representative test cases: particle dispersion in a statistically uniform flow and particle dynamics in a non-uniform flow.
摘要:本文的目的是在粒子/网格拉格朗日随机方法中提出一种时间步长鲁棒的三维非结构化网格中粒子轨迹的胞间积分方法。其主要思想是动态更新时间积分中使用的平均场,方法是将每个粒子的时间步分成子步,这样每个子步对应于粒子单元的停留时间。这减少了空间离散误差。考虑到模型的随机性质,一个关键方面是推导出不预测维纳过程未来的停留时间的估计。为了达到这个效果,新的算法依赖于一个虚拟粒子,附着在每个随机粒子上,它的平均条件行为提供了无统计偏差的停留时间预测。通过一致性检验,在统计均匀流中的粒子弥散和非均匀流中的粒子动力学两个典型测试案例上对该算法进行了验证。
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引用次数: 2
Frontmatter 头版头条
Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2023-03-01 DOI: 10.1515/mcma-2023-frontmatter1
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引用次数: 0
Linking the Monte Carlo radiative transfer algorithm to the radiative transfer equation 将蒙特卡罗辐射传递算法与辐射传递方程联系起来
IF 0.9 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2023-01-27 DOI: 10.1515/mcma-2023-2001
P. J. Valades-Pelayo, M. Ramirez-Cabrera, A. Balbuena-Ortega
Abstract This manuscript presents a short route to justify the widely used Monte Carlo Radiative Transfer (MCRT) algorithm straight from the Radiative Transfer Equation (RTE). In this regard, this paper starts deriving a probability measure obtained from the integral formulation of the RTE under a unidirectional point source in an infinite domain. This derivation only requires the analytical integration of the first two terms of a perturbation expansion. Although derivations have been devised to clarify the relationship between the MCRT and the RTE, they tend to be rather long and elaborate. Considering how simple it is to justify the MCRT from a loose probabilistic interpretation of the photon’s physical propagation process, the decay in popularity of former approaches relating MCRT to the RTE is entirely understandable. Unfortunately, all of this has given the false impression that MCRT and the RTE are not that closely related, to the point that recent works have explicitly stated that no direct link exists between them. This work presents a simpler route demonstrating how the MCRT algorithm emerges to statistically sample the RTE explicitly through Markov chains, further clarifying the method’s foundations. Although compact, the derivation proposed in this work does not skip any fundamental step, preserving mathematical rigor while giving specific expressions and functions. Thus, this derivation can help devise efficient ways to statistically sample the RTE for different scenarios or when coupling the MCRT method with other methods traditionally grounded in the RTE, such as the Spherical Harmonics and Discrete Ordinates methods.
摘要本文直接从辐射传递方程(RTE)出发,提出了一条简单的途径来证明广泛使用的蒙特卡罗辐射传递(MCRT)算法。在这方面,本文开始推导一个概率测度,该测度是从无限域中单向点源下RTE的积分公式中获得的。这种推导只需要对扰动展开的前两项进行分析积分。尽管推导是为了澄清MCRT和RTE之间的关系而设计的,但它们往往相当冗长和详细。考虑到从光子物理传播过程的松散概率解释来证明MCRT是多么简单,以前将MCRT与RTE相关的方法的流行程度下降是完全可以理解的。不幸的是,所有这些都给人一种错误的印象,即MCRT和RTE没有那么紧密的联系,以至于最近的作品明确表示它们之间不存在直接联系。这项工作提供了一个更简单的途径,展示了MCRT算法是如何通过马尔可夫链显式地对RTE进行统计采样的,进一步阐明了该方法的基础。尽管紧凑,但这项工作中提出的推导并没有跳过任何基本步骤,在给出特定表达式和函数的同时保持了数学的严谨性。因此,这种推导可以帮助设计有效的方法来对不同场景的RTE进行统计采样,或者当将MCRT方法与传统上基于RTE的其他方法相结合时,例如球面谐波和离散坐标方法。
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引用次数: 0
Methodology for nonparametric bias reduction in kernel regression estimation 核回归估计中的非参数偏差约简方法
IF 0.9 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2023-01-10 DOI: 10.1515/mcma-2022-2130
Y. Slaoui
Abstract In this paper, we propose and investigate two new kernel regression estimators based on a bias reduction transformation technique. We study the properties of these estimators and compare them with Nadaraya–Watson’s regression estimator and Slaoui’s (2016) regression estimator. It turns out that, with an adequate choice of the parameters of the two proposed estimators, the rate of convergence of two estimators will be faster than the two classical estimators, and the asymptotic MISE (mean integrated squared error) will be smaller than the two classical estimators. We corroborate these theoretical results through simulations and a real Malaria dataset.
摘要在本文中,我们提出并研究了两种新的基于偏差减少变换技术的核回归估计量。我们研究了这些估计量的性质,并将其与Nadaraya–Watson回归估计量和Slaoui(2016)回归估计量进行了比较。结果表明,在适当选择两个估计量的参数的情况下,两个估计的收敛速度将快于两个经典估计量,并且渐近均方误差将小于两个经典估算量。我们通过模拟和真实的疟疾数据集证实了这些理论结果。
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引用次数: 0
Development and implementation of branching random walk on spheres algorithms for solving the 2D elastostatics Lamé equation 求解二维弹性静力学lam<s:1>方程的球上分支随机行走算法的开发与实现
IF 0.9 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2023-01-10 DOI: 10.1515/mcma-2022-2131
I. Shalimova, K. Sabelfeld
Abstract In this paper, we address a long-standing open problem in stochastic simulation: construction of a random walk on spheres (RWS) algorithm for solving a system of elasticity equations, known as the Lamé equation. Many attempts to generalize the classic probabilistic representations like the Kac formula for parabolic and scalar elliptic equations failed. A different approach based on a branching random walk on spheres (BRWS) introduced in our paper of 1995 [K. K. Sabelfeld and D. Talay, Integral formulation of the boundary value problems and the method of random walk on spheres, Monte Carlo Methods Appl. 1 1995, 1, 1–34] made little progress in solving this problem. In the present study, we further improve the BRWS algorithm by a special implementation of a branching anisotropic random walk on spheres process.
摘要在本文中,我们解决了随机模拟中一个长期存在的开放问题:构造求解弹性方程组(即Lamé方程)的随机球上行走(RWS)算法。许多推广经典概率表示的尝试,如抛物型和标量椭圆方程的Kac公式,都失败了。我们在1995年的论文[K.K.Sabelfeld和D.Talay,边值问题的积分公式和球上随机行走方法,蒙特卡罗方法应用1 1995,1,1–34]中介绍了一种基于分支随机行走(BRWS)的不同方法,在解决这个问题方面进展甚微。在本研究中,我们通过一个特殊的分支各向异性球体随机行走过程来进一步改进BRWS算法。
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引用次数: 1
Parameter least-squares estimation for time-inhomogeneous Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process 时间非均匀Ornstein-Uhlenbeck过程的参数最小二乘估计
IF 0.9 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2022-11-02 DOI: 10.1515/mcma-2022-2127
G. Pramesti
Abstract We address the least-squares estimation of the drift coefficient parameter θ = ( λ , A , B , ω p ) theta=(lambda,A,B,omega_{p}) of a time-inhomogeneous Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process that is observed at high frequency, in which the discretized step size ℎ satisfies h → 0 hto 0 . In this paper, under the conditions n ⁢ h → ∞ nhtoinfty and n ⁢ h 2 → 0 nh^{2}to 0 , we prove the consistency and the asymptotic normality of the estimators. We obtain the convergence of the parameters at rate n ⁢ h sqrt{nh} , except for ω p omega_{p} at n 3 ⁢ h 3 sqrt{n^{3}h^{3}} . To verify our theoretical findings, we do a simulation study. We then illustrate the use of the proposed model in fitting the energy use of light fixtures in one Belgium household and the stock exchange.
摘要我们讨论了在高频下观测到的时间非均匀Ornstein–Uhlenbeck过程的漂移系数参数θ=(λ,A,B,ωp)θ=(lambda,A,B,omega_{p})的最小二乘估计,其中离散化的步长ℎ 满足h→ 0小时到0。在本文中,在条件n h→ ∞ nhtoinfty和n h 2→ 0nh^{2}到0,我们证明了估计量的一致性和渐近正态性。我们得到了在速率n h sqrt{nh}下参数的收敛性,除了ω^{3}h^{3} }。为了验证我们的理论发现,我们进行了一项模拟研究。然后,我们说明了所提出的模型在拟合比利时一个家庭和证券交易所的灯具能源使用方面的用途。
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引用次数: 1
Global random walk on grid algorithm for solving Navier–Stokes and Burgers equations 求解Navier-Stokes和Burgers方程的全局随机网格行走算法
IF 0.9 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2022-10-28 DOI: 10.1515/mcma-2022-2126
K. Sabelfeld, Oleg Bukhasheev
Abstract The global random walk on grid method (GRWG) is developed for solving two-dimensional nonlinear systems of equations, the Navier–Stokes and Burgers equations. This study extends the GRWG which we have earlier developed for solving the nonlinear drift-diffusion-Poisson equation of semiconductors (Physica A 556 (2020), Article ID 124800). The Burgers equation is solved by a direct iteration of a system of linear drift-diffusion equations, while the Navier–Stokes equation is solved in the stream function-vorticity formulation.
摘要提出了求解二维非线性方程组Navier–Stokes和Burgers方程的全局随机网格行走方法。本研究扩展了我们早期开发的用于求解半导体非线性漂移扩散泊松方程的GRWG(Physica A 556(2020),文章ID 124800)。Burgers方程是通过线性漂移扩散方程组的直接迭代求解的,而Navier–Stokes方程是通过流函数涡度公式求解的。
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引用次数: 0
Simulation of drift-diffusion process at high Péclet numbers by the random walk on spheres method 用球上随机游走法模拟高psamclet数下的漂移扩散过程
IF 0.9 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2022-10-28 DOI: 10.1515/mcma-2022-2128
K. Sabelfeld, Ivan Aksyuk
Abstract In this paper, we address the problem of flow simulation at high Péclet numbers by the random walk on spheres (RWS) method. Conventional deterministic methods here face difficulties related to high solution gradients near the boundary in the region known as the boundary layer. In the finite-difference methods, this leads to introduction of very fine meshes which in turn causes problems of stability and high dimensions. The RWS algorithm is mesh free, but the high Péclet number flows should probably also affect the efficiency of simulations. However, it turns out that the RWS algorithm can be well adapted to this case. We present an analysis of the RWS algorithm for different examples of flows with high Péclet number. Simulations are carried out for different boundary conditions and for two-layered material with different diffusion coefficients of exciton’s mobility.
摘要本文用球上随机游走(RWS)方法解决了高psamclet数下的流动模拟问题。传统的确定性方法在这里面临着与边界层附近区域的高解梯度有关的困难。在有限差分方法中,这会导致引入非常精细的网格,从而导致稳定性和高维问题。RWS算法是无网格的,但过高的psamclet数流可能也会影响模拟的效率。然而,事实证明RWS算法可以很好地适应这种情况。本文对具有高psamclet数的不同流例的RWS算法进行了分析。在不同边界条件下,对具有不同激子迁移率扩散系数的双层材料进行了模拟。
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引用次数: 0
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Monte Carlo Methods and Applications
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